Thursday, June 25, 2026

Ecudaor need to win against Germany or go home.

Paraguay need to beat Australia to grab the second spot. In practice both will most likely advance with a draw and the loser has a good chance if they keep a decent goal difference. 

Similar situation in Group F. Sweden need to beat Japan to snatch the second spot, but a draw means both teams likely advance. 

In Group E, Ecuador need to beat Germany to advance, while Curacao and Ivory Coast play a decider. Curacao are through if they win and out otherwise. Ivory Coast clinch knockout stage if they avoid losing and if they lose, they have a good chance as long as Germany doesn't lose.

Group A


Probabilities
TeamPldGDPtsxPts4th3rd2nd1stLast 32
Mexico3+699


100%100%
South Africa3-144

100%
100%
South Korea3-133
100%

92%
Czechia3-411100%




Group B


Probabilities
TeamPldGDPtsxPts4th3rd2nd1stLast 32
Switzerland3+477


100%100%
Canada3+544

100%
100%
Bosnia and Herzegovina3-144
100%

100%
Qatar3-811100%




Group C


Probabilities
TeamPldGDPtsxPts4th3rd2nd1stLast 32
Brazil3+677


100%100%
Morocco3+377

100%
100%
Scotland3-333
100%

33%
Haiti3-600100%




Group D


Probabilities
TeamPldGDPtsxPts4th3rd2nd1stLast 32
United States2+567.12


100%100%
Australia2034.22
43%57%
91%
Paraguay2-234.54
57%43%
81%
Turkey2-301.65100%




Australia
Paraguay - Australia
+43-04-1+21-02-13-2DrawAway
20%61%64%73%91%97.0%97.4%100%100%Uni - Tur
20%60%64%73%90%97%97%100%100%90%Home
21%62%64%73%91%97%97%100%100%91%Draw
20%61%64%73%91%97.0%98%100%100%91%Away


Paraguay
Paraguay - Australia
HomeDraw0-11-22-30-21-30-31-4-4
100%>99.99%61%64%68%19%22%11%14%7%Uni - Tur
100%>99.99%61%64%68%19%22%11%14%7%81%Home
100%>99.99%62%64%68%20%21%11%12%7%81%Draw
100%>99.99%61%65%69%19%21%12%14%7%82%Away


Group E


Probabilities
TeamPldGDPtsxPts4th3rd2nd1stLast 32
Germany2+767.34


100%100%
Ivory Coast2035.136%10%84%
92%
Ecuador2-112.4117%77%6%
39%
Curaçao2-611.6877%13%10%
16%

Ivory Coast
Curaçao - Ivory Coast
+4+21-02-13-2DrawAway
7%44%55%59%60%100%100%Ger - Ecu
11%72%91%97%98%100%100%97.5%Home
12%71%90%98%98%100%100%97.4%Draw





100%100%84%Away


Ecuador
Germany - Ecuador
HomeDrawAway

< 0.1%100%Cur - Ivo


100%39%Home

< 0.1%100%39%Draw

< 0.1%100%39%Away


Curaçao
Curaçao - Ivory Coast
HomeDrawAway
>99.99%

Ger - Ecu
100%

16%Home
100%

16%Draw
99.98%

16%Away



Factors influencing which team wins the tournament

  • Ecuador have 2% if they win against Germany; otherwise 0.00016%
Group F


Probabilities
TeamPldGDPtsxPts4th3rd2nd1stLast 32
Netherlands2+446.34
0.71%39%61%100%
Japan2+445.97
19%47%34%100%
Sweden2033.82
80%15%6%90%
Tunisia2-800.5100%




Sweden
Japan - Sweden
+4+3+2+1DrawAway
31%77%87%99.3%100%100%Net - Tun
31%77%87%99.3%100%100%90%Home
31%77%87%99.3%100%100%90%Draw
31%77%87%99.3%100%100%90%Away


Last 32
Last 16
Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Final
Champions
Germany (100%)



Germany (65%)
Paraguay (14%)

Paraguay (36%)
Australia (32%)
Sweden (14%)







France (47%)
Germany (27%)
Norway (8%)

France (79%)
Norway (21%)







France (65%)
Norway (15%)



Sweden (49%)
Japan (13%)
Egypt (13%)











France (35%)
Germany (16%)
Netherlands (13%)
Canada (11%)

South Africa (100%)









Canada (78%)
South Africa (22%)





Canada (100%)











Canada (38%)
Netherlands (27%)
Morocco (19%)
Japan (12%)



Netherlands (61%)
Japan (34%)









Netherlands (40%)
Morocco (37%)
Japan (20%)





Morocco (100%)















Spain (34%)
France (20%)
Germany (6%)
Netherlands (6%)

Portugal (61%)
Colombia (39%)











Portugal (36%)
Croatia (24%)
Colombia (23%)
England (16%)







Croatia (56%)
England (29%)
Ghana (16%)













Spain (53%)
Portugal (14%)
Colombia (9%)





Spain (86%)











Spain (74%)
Austria (14%)







Austria (71%)
Algeria (29%)















Spain (46%)
United States (10%)
Portugal (10%)



United States (100%)











United States (75%)
Bosnia and Herzegovina (25%)







Bosnia and Herzegovina (100%)













United States (43%)
South Korea (21%)
Belgium (9%)
Egypt (8%)





Egypt (48%)
Iran (30%)
Belgium (23%)











South Korea (43%)
Egypt (20%)
Iran (15%)







South Korea (86%)



















Spain (26%)
Argentina (20%)
France (14%)
England (7%)
Brazil (100%)











Brazil (60%)
Japan (19%)
Netherlands (18%)







Japan (47%)
Netherlands (39%)
Sweden (15%)













Brazil (36%)
Norway (27%)
France (12%)
Netherlands (10%)





Ivory Coast (84%)











Norway (60%)
France (19%)
Ivory Coast (18%)







Norway (79%)
France (21%)















England (21%)
Brazil (20%)
Norway (13%)
Mexico (9%)
France (8%)



Mexico (100%)











Mexico (56%)
Ecuador (15%)
Scotland (10%)







Ecuador (26%)
Scotland (25%)
Uruguay (10%)
Senegal (8%)













England (36%)
Mexico (22%)
Senegal (10%)
Croatia (10%)





England (71%)
Croatia (25%)











England (53%)
Croatia (17%)
Senegal (16%)







Senegal (43%)
DR Congo (30%)
Algeria (7%)

















Argentina (35%)
England (10%)
Brazil (9%)
Colombia (7%)

Argentina (100%)









Argentina (89%)





Cape Verde (51%)
Saudi Arabia (34%)











Argentina (73%)
Belgium (8%)



Australia (57%)
Paraguay (43%)









Belgium (30%)
Australia (28%)
Paraguay (24%)
Iran (9%)





Belgium (52%)
Egypt (21%)
Iran (19%)













Argentina (51%)
Colombia (14%)
Portugal (9%)

Switzerland (100%)







Switzerland (65%)
Algeria (11%)



Algeria (32%)
Austria (19%)
Egypt (19%)
Iran (12%)









Colombia (33%)
Switzerland (28%)
Portugal (22%)
Croatia (5%)

Colombia (61%)
Portugal (39%)





Colombia (52%)
Portugal (33%)
Croatia (8%)

Ghana (81%)
Croatia (18%)


What is needed to qualify as 3rd team?
PtsGDProbabilityLast 32Chance
4-33%33%>99.99%
32-39%8%92%
35-70.99%0.80%81%
34-61.3%1.0%79%
33-50.99%0.74%75%
34-70.75%0.50%67%
33-61.8%1.2%64%
32-51.6%0.95%60%
31-48%2.8%33%
3-43.5%0.70%20%
3-53.1%0.28%9%
2-12%< 0.1%0.31%
1-3.5%


Group B
point1234

GD---5-41-42-53-64-73-54-65-72-3-

3rd100%











100%
3rd & Last 32100%











100%
Switzerland3rd













3rd & Last 32













Canada3rd













3rd & Last 32













Bosnia and Herzegovina3rd100%











100%
3rd & Last 32100%











100%
Qatar3rd













3rd & Last 32













Group L
point1234

GD---5-41-42-53-64-73-54-65-72-3-

3rd100%

< 0.1%0.3%

0.8%0.6%1.9%2.2%0.8%
93%
3rd & Last 3299%

< 0.1%< 0.1%

0.5%0.4%1.6%1.9%0.7%
93%
England3rd0.3%











0.3%
3rd & Last 320.3%











0.3%
Ghana3rd81%











81%
3rd & Last 3281%











81%
Croatia3rd19%

< 0.1%0.3%

0.8%0.6%1.9%2.2%0.8%
12%
3rd & Last 3218%

< 0.1%< 0.1%

0.5%0.4%1.6%1.9%0.7%
12%
Panama3rd













3rd & Last 32













Group A
point1234

GD---5-41-42-53-64-73-54-65-72-3-

3rd100%










100%
3rd & Last 3292%










92%
Mexico3rd













3rd & Last 32













South Africa3rd













3rd & Last 32













South Korea3rd100%










100%
3rd & Last 3292%










92%
Czechia3rd













3rd & Last 32













Group F
point1234

GD---5-41-42-53-64-73-54-65-72-3-

3rd100%

1.8%4.7%







41%
3rd & Last 3290%

0.3%1.4%







41%
Netherlands3rd0.7%











0.7%
3rd & Last 320.7%











0.7%
Japan3rd19%











19%
3rd & Last 3219%











19%
Sweden3rd80%

1.8%4.7%







21%
3rd & Last 3270%

0.3%1.4%







21%
Tunisia3rd













3rd & Last 32













Group D
point1234

GD---5-41-42-53-64-73-54-65-72-3-

3rd100%

4.4%12%
10%9.6%3.3%4.9%1.4%0.2%8%24%
3rd & Last 3272%

0.5%2.4%
6.3%6.2%2.3%3.6%1%0.2%7.3%24%
United States3rd













3rd & Last 32













Australia3rd43%

0.7%2.2%
3.5%2%0.4%4.9%1.4%0.2%8%
3rd & Last 3234%

< 0.1%0.5%
2.2%1.3%0.3%3.6%1%0.2%7.3%
Paraguay3rd57%

3.7%9.4%
6.8%7.6%2.8%



24%
3rd & Last 3238%

0.5%1.9%
4.2%4.9%1.9%



24%
Turkey3rd













3rd & Last 32













Group G
point1234

GD---5-41-42-53-64-73-54-65-72-3-

3rd100%
30%









38%
3rd & Last 3270%
0.1%









38%
Egypt3rd31%











31%
3rd & Last 3231%











31%
Iran3rd47%
27%










3rd & Last 3220%
0.1%










Belgium3rd13%
1.8%










3rd & Last 3211%
< 0.1%










New Zealand3rd8.4%
2.2%









6.2%
3rd & Last 326.2%











6.2%
Group J
point1234

GD---5-41-42-53-64-73-54-65-72-3-

3rd100%

7.2%15%
8.4%11%4.5%4.1%3.1%0.9%
24%
3rd & Last 3265%

0.9%2.9%
4.9%7%2.9%3%2.3%0.7%
24%
Argentina3rd













3rd & Last 32













Austria3rd29%

0.2%0.9%

1.8%1%4.1%3.1%0.9%

3rd & Last 3225%

< 0.1%0.2%

1.1%0.6%3%2.3%0.7%

Algeria3rd71%

7%14%
8.4%9.4%3.5%



24%
3rd & Last 3241%

0.8%2.7%
4.9%5.8%2.2%



24%
Jordan3rd













3rd & Last 32













Group I
point1234

GD---5-41-42-53-64-73-54-65-72-3-

3rd100%18%
9.5%3.5%


0.6%
8.7%9.9%

3rd & Last 3265%

0.8%0.7%


0.4%
6.9%8%

France3rd













3rd & Last 32













Norway3rd













3rd & Last 32













Senegal3rd86%18%







8.7%9.7%

3rd & Last 3263%








6.9%7.9%

Iraq3rd14%

9.5%3.5%


0.6%

0.1%

3rd & Last 322.4%

0.8%0.7%


0.4%

0.1%

Group E
point1234

GD---5-41-42-53-64-73-54-65-72-3-

3rd100%24%27%< 0.1%0.2%
0.4%0.2%< 0.1%0.9%0.3%< 0.1%2.5%39%
3rd & Last 3247%
< 0.1%< 0.1%< 0.1%
0.2%0.1%< 0.1%0.7%0.2%< 0.1%2.2%39%
Germany3rd













3rd & Last 32













Ivory Coast3rd9.9%

< 0.1%0.2%
0.4%0.2%< 0.1%0.9%0.3%< 0.1%2.5%
3rd & Last 328.3%

< 0.1%< 0.1%
0.2%0.1%< 0.1%0.7%0.2%< 0.1%2.2%
Ecuador3rd77%24%20%









33%
3rd & Last 3233%
< 0.1%









33%
Curaçao3rd13%< 0.1%7.1%









6.3%
3rd & Last 326.3%











6.3%
Group K
point1234

GD---5-41-42-53-64-73-54-65-72-3-

3rd100%
24%14%6.7%







30%
3rd & Last 3235%
0.2%0.8%0.9%







30%
Colombia3rd













3rd & Last 32













Portugal3rd0.3%











0.3%
3rd & Last 320.3%











0.3%
DR Congo3rd54%
24%









30%
3rd & Last 3230%
0.2%









30%
Uzbekistan3rd46%

14%6.7%








3rd & Last 324.7%

0.8%0.9%








Group C
point1234

GD---5-41-42-53-64-73-54-65-72-3-

3rd100%



100%







3rd & Last 3233%



33%







Brazil3rd













3rd & Last 32













Morocco3rd













3rd & Last 32













Scotland3rd100%



100%







3rd & Last 3233%



33%







Haiti3rd













3rd & Last 32













Group H
point1234

GD---5-41-42-53-64-73-54-65-72-3-

3rd100%
68%









11%
3rd & Last 3232%
0.2%









11%
Spain3rd5%











5%
3rd & Last 325%











5%
Uruguay3rd67%
52%










3rd & Last 3215%
0.1%










Cape Verde3rd21%
14%










3rd & Last 326.8%
< 0.1%










Saudi Arabia3rd7%
1.4%









5.6%
3rd & Last 325.6%











5.6%

 

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