Spain World Champions '26

Spain never really in danger, but the lowest live probability occurred at end of round of 16 just before Spain scored the winner against Portugal. The most positives surprises (lowest occurrence in simulations beforehand): 

• Ghana advance from the group (13%) 
• Morocco reaching quarterfinals (15%)
• Egypt reaching  round of 16 (22%)
• South Africa advance from the group (24%)
• Cape Verde advance from the group
• Norway reaching quarterfinals (25%)
• Belgium reaching quarterfinal (26%)
• Argentina reaching final (27%) 

Most negative surprises:

• Turkey out at group stage (20%)
• Iran out at group stage (22%)
• Korea out at group stage (23%)
• Panama  out at group stage (36%)
• Netherlands not reaching last 16 ( 44%)

 

 

Argentina through to world cup final after late drama

 

Spain reach the wold cup final

 

Final		Champions
Spain (100%)
		Spain (61%) Argentina (27%)
Argentina (61%) England (39%)

Final Four

 

Final		Champions
Spain (60%) France (40%)
		Spain (36%) Argentina (29%) France (20%) England (14%)
Argentina (61%) England (39%)

France versus Spain on Tuesday

 

Semi-finals		Final		Champions
France (100%)
		Spain (60%) France (40%)
Spain (100%)
				Spain (39%) Argentina (24%) France (22%) England (10%)
England (63%) Norway (37%)
		Argentina (49%) England (29%) Norway (12%)
Argentina (75%) Switzerland (25%)

France go into the final four

 

Semi-finals		Final		Champions
France (100%)
		Spain (49%) France (46%)
Spain (82%) Belgium (18%)
				Spain (32%) France (25%) Argentina (25%) England (11%)
England (63%) Norway (37%)
		Argentina (49%) England (29%) Norway (12%)
Argentina (75%) Switzerland (25%)

The great Argentinian escape

 

Semi-finals		Final		Champions
France (78%) Morocco (22%)
		Spain (53%) France (36%)
Spain (82%) Belgium (18%)
				Spain (34%) Argentina (25%) France (20%) England (11%)
England (63%) Norway (37%)
		Argentina (49%) England (29%) Norway (12%)
Argentina (75%) Switzerland (25%)