We have the following finals
Champions League: Arsenal - PSG
Europa League: Aston Villa - Freiburg
Conference League: Crystal Palace - Rayo Vallecano
Premier League and La Liga have secured an extra spot in next season's Champions League.
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Friday, May 8, 2026
La Liga clinches extra CL spot
Thursday, May 7, 2026
Which league gets the extra CL spot
Premier League get one of the extra CL spots. The other one goes to Portugal, Spain or Germany and it's an extremely race. Portugal and Spain need to have a team in the finals to have a chance, which means that Portugal need that Braga win their tie against Freiburg, while Spain need that Rayo Vallecano win advance past Strasbourg. Germany's chances are slim but not zero if Freiburg are knocked out tonight against Braga.
| Score | ||||
| Country | Probability | Average | Min | Max |
| ENG | 100% | 20.01 | 19.78 | 20.06 |
| POR | 34% | 15.49 | 15.2 | 15.8 |
| ESP | 34% | 15.63 | 15.5 | 15.81 |
| GER | 32% | 15.58 | 15.36 | 15.79 |
| n | 0 | 1 | |||||
| Probability | 61% | 39% | |||||
| Chance if | 4.1% | 75% |
Number of finalists from ESP; 369 mbit
| n | 0 | 1 | |||||
| Probability | 43% | 57% | |||||
| Chance if | < 1% | 60% |
Number of finalists from POR; 328 mbit
| n | 0 | 1 | |||||
| Probability | 39% | 61% | |||||
| Chance if | < 1% | 56% |
Tuesday, May 5, 2026
PL: City slip at Everton
City came back after 1-3 deficit and scored in the last minute to save an important point in title race. City now win 13% of the simulations; they win 60% if they win remaining matches, 22% if they take 10 points in the last four matches.
Forest won against Chelsea and are thus practically secure from relegation. Mathematically they need four more points to clinch a new contract.
Everton lost two points in the race to Europe and now have 23% chance to reach EL or Conference League. They likely need to take 6 or 7 points to reach that ticket to Europe.
| Important matches for title race | |||
| West Ham vs Arsenal (10.7%) | Home Win (19%) | Draw (21%) | Away Win (60%) |
| Man City | 29% | 18% | 6% |
| Arsenal | 71% | 82% | 94% |
| Man City vs Brentford (7%) | Home Win (64%) | Draw (20%) | Away Win (17%) |
| Arsenal | 82% | 95% | 97.3% |
| Man City | 18% | 5% | 2.7% |
| Arsenal | Man City | |||||
| points | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance |
| 85 | 28% | 28% | 100% | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 84 | 28% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 83 | 52% | 24% | 95.1% | 10% | 10% | 60% |
| 82 | 75% | 22% | 90% | 10% | < 1% | - |
| 81 | 81% | 6% | 82% | 26% | 16% | 22% |
| 80 | 92% | 11% | 66% | 43% | 17% | 14% |
| 79 | 97.8% | 5% | 51% | 52% | 9% | 6% |
| 78 | 98.9% | 1.1% | 37% | 70% | 19% | 1.8% |
| 77 | 99.78% | < 1% | 22% | 82% | 12% | < 1% |
| 76 | 100% | < 1% | 13% | 88% | 6% | < 1% |
| 75 | 100% | < 1% | - | 95.2% | 7% | < 1% |
| 74 | 100% | < 1% | - | 98.1% | 2.9% | < 1% |
| 73 | 100% | < 1% | - | 99.13% | 1.1% | < 1% |
| 72 | 100% | < 1% | - | 99.82% | < 1% | < 1% |
Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is successful, if they finish with X points
| Important matches for avoiding relegation | |||
| Tottenham vs Leeds (15.5%) | Home Win (46%) | Draw (24%) | Away Win (30%) |
| Tottenham | 91% | 71% | 61% |
| West Ham | 10% | 29% | 39% |
| West Ham vs Arsenal (13.7%) | Home Win (19%) | Draw (21%) | Away Win (60%) |
| West Ham | 50% | 22% | 15% |
| Tottenham | 51% | 78% | 85% |
| West Ham | Tottenham | |||||
| points | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance |
| 46 | < 1% | < 1% | - | 4.2% | 4.2% | 100% |
| 45 | 1.8% | 1.8% | 98.9% | 4.2% | < 1% | - |
| 44 | 1.8% | < 1% | - | 13% | 9% | 99.4% |
| 43 | 7% | 4.8% | 73% | 30% | 17% | 98.8% |
| 42 | 18% | 12% | 64% | 36% | 6% | 94% |
| 41 | 22% | 4.0% | 42% | 58% | 22% | 82% |
| 40 | 42% | 19% | 23% | 77% | 19% | 77% |
| 39 | 66% | 24% | 16% | 84% | 7% | 58% |
| 38 | 73% | 7% | 6% | 94% | 11% | 34% |
| 37 | 89% | 16% | < 1% | 100% | 6% | 27% |
| 36 | 100% | 11% | < 1% | 100% | < 1% | - |
| 35 | 100% | < 1% | - | 100% | < 1% | - |
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is successful, if they finish with X points
| Important matches for CL race | |||
| Fulham vs Bournemouth (6.6%) | Home Win (43%) | Draw (24%) | Away Win (33%) |
| Bournemouth | 4.4% | 8% | 20% |
| Fulham | 2.5% | < 1% | < 1% |
| Aston Villa | 98.3% | 97.5% | 93% |
| Brighton | 10% | 10% | 6% |
| Burnley vs Aston Villa (4.4%) | Home Win (26%) | Draw (23%) | Away Win (51%) |
| Aston Villa | 91% | 96.2% | 99.52% |
| Bournemouth | 16% | 11% | 8% |
| Brighton | 12% | 9% | 6% |
| Brentford | 6% | 4.5% | 3.2% |
| Important matches for EL race (EL or CL) | |||
| Fulham vs Bournemouth (23.2%) | Home Win (43%) | Draw (24%) | Away Win (33%) |
| Bournemouth | 37% | 55% | 84% |
| Fulham | 26% | 7% | < 1% |
| Man City vs Brentford (11.3%) | Home Win (64%) | Draw (20%) | Away Win (17%) |
| Brentford | 26% | 44% | 72% |
| Bournemouth | 60% | 55% | 46% |
| Brighton | 57% | 52% | 43% |
| Brighton vs Wolves (11.1%) | Home Win (68%) | Draw (18%) | Away Win (14%) |
| Brighton | 65% | 36% | 21% |
| Brentford | 34% | 42% | 47% |
| Bournemouth | 53% | 62% | 65% |
| Crystal Palace vs Everton (8.8%) | Home Win (47%) | Draw (24%) | Away Win (30%) |
| Everton | 2.5% | 9% | 27% |
| Important matches for Europe race (ECL, EL or CL) | |||
| Fulham vs Bournemouth (26.1%) | Home Win (43%) | Draw (24%) | Away Win (33%) |
| Bournemouth | 57% | 77% | 96.4% |
| Fulham | 44% | 16% | 5% |
| Crystal Palace vs Everton (13.3%) | Home Win (47%) | Draw (24%) | Away Win (30%) |
| Everton | 9% | 21% | 49% |
| Brighton vs Wolves (11.6%) | Home Win (68%) | Draw (18%) | Away Win (14%) |
| Brighton | 84% | 58% | 40% |
| Brentford | 58% | 64% | 69% |
| Man City vs Brentford (9.8%) | Home Win (64%) | Draw (20%) | Away Win (17%) |
| Brentford | 50% | 68% | 91% |
| Brighton | 76% | 72% | 67% |
| Liverpool vs Chelsea (5.7%) | Home Win (58%) | Draw (21%) | Away Win (20%) |
| Chelsea | 49% | 57% | 78% |
| Brentford | 63% | 60% | 53% |
| Everton | 25% | 23% | 18% |
| Brighton | 76% | 73% | 69% |
| Average Simulated Season | Probabilities | |||||||||||
| Pts | Team | Pts | GD | Relegated | Top 7 | Top 6 | Top 5 | Top 4 | Win League | ECL | EL | CL |
| 76 | Arsenal | 82.5 | +45 | < 1% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 87% | < 1% | < 1% | 100% |
| 71 | Man City | 78.7 | +41 | < 1% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 13% | < 1% | < 1% | 100% |
| 64 | Man United | 68.8 | +16 | < 1% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 99.88% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 100% |
| 58 | Liverpool | 63.2 | +14 | < 1% | >99.99% | 99.84% | 98.3% | 68% | < 1% | < 1% | 1.7% | 98.3% |
| 58 | Aston Villa | 62.1 | +4 | < 1% | 99.99% | 99.60% | 95% | 32% | < 1% | < 1% | 3.4% | 96.5% |
| 52 | Bournemouth | 55.7 | +2 | < 1% | 61% | 36% | 3.7% | < 1% | < 1% | 18% | 46% | 10% |
| 50 | Brighton | 55.0 | +8 | < 1% | 58% | 32% | 2.0% | < 1% | < 1% | 20% | 45% | 9% |
| 51 | Brentford | 54.3 | +6 | < 1% | 40% | 18% | 1.2% | < 1% | < 1% | 23% | 33% | 4.2% |
| 48 | Fulham | 52.6 | -4 | < 1% | 13% | 5% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 12% | 12% | 1.1% |
| 48 | Everton | 52.4 | +0 | < 1% | 11% | 3.7% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 12% | 11% | < 1% |
| 48 | Chelsea | 52.3 | +6 | < 1% | 15% | 5.0% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 10% | 46% | < 1% |
| 47 | Sunderland | 50.0 | -11 | < 1% | 1.4% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 2.8% | 1.4% | < 1% |
| 45 | Newcastle | 49.2 | -2 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 1.9% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 43 | Crystal Palace | 47.1 | -9 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 62% | < 1% |
| 43 | Leeds | 46.9 | -5 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 42 | Forest | 46.2 | -2 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 35% |
| 37 | Tottenham | 41.0 | -9 | 23% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 36 | West Ham | 39.2 | -21 | 77% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 20 | Burnley | 22.9 | -39 | 100% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 18 | Wolves | 21.0 | -40 | 100% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
Most likely combo of teams in CL
| 41% | Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Man United |
| 33% | Arsenal, Aston Villa, Forest, Liverpool, Man City, Man United |
| 8% | Arsenal, Aston Villa, Bournemouth, Liverpool, Man City, Man United |
| 7% | Arsenal, Aston Villa, Brighton, Liverpool, Man City, Man United |
| 3.2% | Arsenal, Aston Villa, Brentford, Liverpool, Man City, Man United |
| 1.1% | Arsenal, Aston Villa, Fulham, Liverpool, Man City, Man United |
| 1.1% | Arsenal, Bournemouth, Forest, Liverpool, Man City, Man United |
| 1.0% | Arsenal, Bournemouth, Liverpool, Man City, Man United |
Most likely combo of teams being relegated
| 77% | Burnley, West Ham, Wolves |
| 23% | Burnley, Tottenham, Wolves |
Monday, May 4, 2026
PL: Spurs win crucial 3 points at Villa Park
West Ham are now relegated in 72% of simulations. They need to take 5 points in the last three matches to have >50% chance to survive. If they win all three matches they are still relegated in 0.6% of the simulations. Spurs need to take 2 points to have >50% to survive. If they take 6 points they survive in >99% of the simulations, as further detailed in table below.
Liverpool lost in the big red rivalry and are therefore yet to secure a spot in CL. They clinch CL in 97% of the simulations and another 4 points and they are 100% safe.
| Important matches for avoiding relegation | |||
| Forest vs Newcastle (2.4%) | Home Win (47%) | Draw (24%) | Away Win (29%) |
| Forest | 99.75% | 97.2% | 93% |
| West Ham | Tottenham | Forest | |||||||
| points | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance |
| 46 | < 1% | < 1% | - | 3.4% | 3.4% | 100% | 28% | 14% | 100% |
| 45 | 2.0% | 2.0% | 99.4% | 3.4% | < 1% | - | 44% | 16% | 100% |
| 44 | 2.0% | < 1% | - | 11% | 8% | 99.6% | 53% | 9% | 99.96% |
| 43 | 7% | 5% | 81% | 27% | 16% | 99.1% | 72% | 18% | 99.8% |
| 42 | 19% | 12% | 73% | 32% | 5% | 95% | 85% | 13% | 97.8% |
| 41 | 24% | 4.2% | 51% | 54% | 21% | 83% | 90% | 6% | 92% |
| 40 | 43% | 20% | 28% | 74% | 21% | 78% | 97.1% | 7% | 85% |
| 39 | 67% | 24% | 19% | 81% | 7% | 58% | 100% | 2.9% | 66% |
| 38 | 74% | 7% | 7% | 93% | 12% | 33% | 100% | < 1% | - |
| 37 | 90% | 16% | < 1% | 100% | 7% | 26% | 100% | < 1% | - |
| 36 | 100% | 10% | < 1% | 100% | < 1% | - | 100% | < 1% | - |
| 35 | 100% | < 1% | - | 100% | < 1% | - | 100% | < 1% | - |
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is successful, if they finish with X points
| Important matches for CL race | |||
| Liverpool vs Chelsea (6.7%) | Home Win (57%) | Draw (22%) | Away Win (21%) |
| Liverpool | 99.96% | 97.4% | 90% |
| Chelsea | 3.0% | 4.0% | 14% |
| Fulham vs Bournemouth (6%) | Home Win (44%) | Draw (24%) | Away Win (32%) |
| Bournemouth | 3.7% | 7% | 19% |
| Fulham | 2.0% | < 1% | < 1% |
| Aston Villa | 98.0% | 97.5% | 94% |
| Liverpool | Aston Villa | Forest | Bournemouth | Brighton | Chelsea | Brentford | Everton | |||||||||||||||||
| points | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance |
| 67 | 10% | 10% | 100% | 5% | 5% | 100% | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 66 | 10% | < 1% | - | 5% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 65 | 26% | 16% | 100% | 16% | 10% | 100% | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 64 | 49% | 23% | 100% | 35% | 20% | 100% | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 63 | 56% | 7% | 100% | 41% | 6% | 100% | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 62 | 76% | 20% | 100% | 63% | 22% | 100% | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 61 | 89% | 13% | 99.6% | 81% | 18% | 97.7% | < 1% | < 1% | - | 3.7% | 3.7% | 58% | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 60 | 93% | 4.1% | 94% | 87% | 6% | 95.3% | < 1% | < 1% | - | 3.7% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - | 2.9% | 2.9% | 51% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 49% | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 59 | 98.1% | 4.9% | 75% | 95.8% | 9% | 83% | < 1% | < 1% | - | 12% | 8% | 28% | 10% | 10% | 34% | 2.9% | < 1% | - | 1.7% | < 1% | - | 2.2% | 2.2% | 27% |
| 58 | 100% | 1.9% | 40% | 100% | 4.2% | 71% | < 1% | < 1% | - | 26% | 14% | 20% | 10% | < 1% | - | 10% | 7% | 19% | 6% | 4.5% | 17% | 2.2% | < 1% | - |
| 57 | 100% | < 1% | - | 100% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - | 32% | 6% | 11% | 26% | 16% | 13% | 22% | 12% | 13% | 19% | 12% | 9% | 8% | 6% | 8% |
| 56 | 100% | < 1% | - | 100% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - | 52% | 21% | 6% | 48% | 22% | 8% | 28% | 6% | 6% | 22% | 3.8% | 5% | 17% | 9% | 3.9% |
| 55 | 100% | < 1% | - | 100% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - | 72% | 20% | 2.4% | 56% | 7% | 3.7% | 47% | 19% | 3.1% | 42% | 20% | 1.9% | 22% | 5% | 1.4% |
| 54 | 100% | < 1% | - | 100% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - | 79% | 7% | < 1% | 75% | 20% | < 1% | 63% | 16% | < 1% | 69% | 26% | < 1% | 39% | 17% | < 1% |
| 53 | 100% | < 1% | - | 100% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - | 92% | 13% | < 1% | 89% | 14% | < 1% | 72% | 9% | < 1% | 75% | 7% | < 1% | 55% | 16% | < 1% |
| 52 | 100% | < 1% | - | 100% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - | 100% | 8% | < 1% | 93% | 4.0% | < 1% | 86% | 14% | < 1% | 90% | 15% | < 1% | 65% | 10% | < 1% |
| 51 | 100% | < 1% | - | 100% | < 1% | - | 1.0% | 1.0% | 29% | 100% | < 1% | - | 98.2% | 4.8% | < 1% | 93% | 8% | < 1% | 100% | 10% | < 1% | 81% | 16% | < 1% |
| 50 | 100% | < 1% | - | 100% | < 1% | - | 1.0% | < 1% | - | 100% | < 1% | - | 100% | 1.8% | < 1% | 96.4% | 3.0% | < 1% | 100% | < 1% | - | 91% | 10% | < 1% |
| 49 | 100% | < 1% | - | 100% | < 1% | - | 4.2% | 3.1% | 30% | 100% | < 1% | - | 100% | < 1% | - | 99.13% | 2.7% | < 1% | 100% | < 1% | - | 95% | 4.0% | < 1% |
Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is successful, if they finish with X points
Most likely combo of teams in CL
| 44% | Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Man United |
| 27% | Arsenal, Aston Villa, Forest, Liverpool, Man City, Man United |
| 7% | Arsenal, Aston Villa, Bournemouth, Liverpool, Man City, Man United |
| 6% | Arsenal, Aston Villa, Brighton, Liverpool, Man City, Man United |
| 4.0% | Arsenal, Aston Villa, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Man United |
| 2.6% | Arsenal, Aston Villa, Brentford, Liverpool, Man City, Man United |
| 1.3% | Arsenal, Aston Villa, Everton, Liverpool, Man City, Man United |
Sunday, May 3, 2026
PL: Arsenal with 6p lead
Arsenal with 6p lead with two more matches played. Pressure on Man City with two upcoming matches against Everton and Brentford as detailed below.
In the relegation battle West Ham lost against Brentford. If Spurs draw Villa today, the battle is a fifty-fifty race according to our simulations.
The race to Europe continue to look like a full-on race with half a dozen contenders.
| Important matches for title race | |||
| Everton vs Man City (10.3%) | Home Win (34%) | Draw (24%) | Away Win (42%) |
| Arsenal | 93% | 87% | 71% |
| Man City | 7% | 13% | 29% |
| Man City vs Brentford (7.2%) | Home Win (64%) | Draw (20%) | Away Win (17%) |
| Arsenal | 76% | 90% | 95% |
| Man City | 24% | 10% | 5% |
| Arsenal | Man City | |||||
| points | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance |
| 85 | 26% | 26% | 98.2% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 85% |
| 84 | 26% | < 1% | - | 4.0% | < 1% | - |
| 83 | 50% | 24% | 92% | 13% | 9% | 61% |
| 82 | 73% | 23% | 83% | 23% | 10% | 38% |
| 81 | 79% | 7% | 74% | 30% | 7% | 24% |
| 80 | 91% | 12% | 62% | 47% | 17% | 14% |
| 79 | 97.4% | 6% | 46% | 60% | 13% | 5% |
| 78 | 98.7% | 1.3% | 34% | 70% | 10% | 2.0% |
| 77 | 99.73% | 1.0% | 23% | 83% | 12% | < 1% |
| 76 | 100% | < 1% | 14% | 90% | 7% | < 1% |
| 75 | 100% | < 1% | - | 94% | 4.5% | < 1% |
| 74 | 100% | < 1% | - | 97.6% | 3.5% | < 1% |
| 73 | 100% | < 1% | - | 99.02% | 1.4% | < 1% |
| 72 | 100% | < 1% | - | 99.62% | < 1% | < 1% |
Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is successful, if they finish with X points
| Important matches for avoiding relegation | |||
| Aston Villa vs Tottenham (10.1%) | Home Win (65%) | Draw (19%) | Away Win (16%) |
| Tottenham | 38% | 50% | 75% |
| West Ham | 63% | 51% | 28% |
| Tottenham | West Ham | Forest | |||||||
| points | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance |
| 46 | < 1% | < 1% | 100% | < 1% | < 1% | - | 28% | 14% | 100% |
| 45 | < 1% | < 1% | - | 2.0% | 2.0% | 99.9% | 44% | 15% | 100% |
| 44 | 2.4% | 1.8% | 99.5% | 2.0% | < 1% | - | 53% | 10% | >99.99% |
| 43 | 7% | 4.8% | 99.1% | 7% | 5% | 95% | 72% | 18% | 99.94% |
| 42 | 9% | 2.3% | 94% | 19% | 12% | 92% | 85% | 13% | 99.4% |
| 41 | 21% | 11% | 83% | 24% | 4.2% | 82% | 90% | 6% | 97.1% |
| 40 | 36% | 15% | 78% | 43% | 20% | 66% | 97.1% | 7% | 94% |
| 39 | 44% | 9% | 57% | 67% | 24% | 56% | 100% | 2.9% | 82% |
| 38 | 64% | 20% | 33% | 74% | 7% | 36% | 100% | < 1% | - |
| 37 | 80% | 16% | 26% | 90% | 15% | 20% | 100% | < 1% | - |
| 36 | 86% | 7% | 10% | 100% | 10% | 14% | 100% | < 1% | - |
| 35 | 95.5% | 9% | < 1% | 100% | < 1% | - | 100% | < 1% | - |
| 34 | 100% | 4.5% | < 1% | 100% | < 1% | - | 100% | < 1% | - |
| 33 | 100% | < 1% | - | 100% | < 1% | - | 100% | < 1% | - |
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is successful, if they finish with X points
| Average Simulated Season | Probabilities | |||||||||||
| Pts | Team | Pts | GD | Relegated | Top 7 | Top 6 | Top 5 | Top 4 | Win League | ECL | EL | CL |
| 76 | Arsenal | 82.4 | +45 | < 1% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 82% | < 1% | < 1% | 100% |
| 70 | Man City | 79.1 | +41 | < 1% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 18% | < 1% | < 1% | 100% |
| 61 | Man United | 67.3 | +15 | < 1% | 100% | 100% | >99.99% | 91% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | >99.99% |
| 58 | Aston Villa | 64.5 | +6 | < 1% | >99.99% | 99.91% | 99.0% | 52% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 99.35% |
| 58 | Liverpool | 64.3 | +14 | < 1% | 99.98% | 99.79% | 98.5% | 58% | < 1% | < 1% | 1.4% | 98.5% |
| 50 | Brighton | 55.1 | +9 | < 1% | 54% | 31% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 20% | 47% | 6% |
| 49 | Bournemouth | 54.5 | +0 | < 1% | 38% | 20% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 18% | 32% | 4.1% |
| 51 | Brentford | 54.3 | +5 | < 1% | 34% | 15% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 23% | 30% | 2.7% |
| 48 | Chelsea | 54.2 | +9 | < 1% | 43% | 23% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 11% | 61% | 4.3% |
| 47 | Everton | 52.7 | +0 | < 1% | 16% | 6% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 13% | 14% | 1.2% |
| 48 | Fulham | 52.6 | -4 | < 1% | 12% | 4.3% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 11% | 11% | < 1% |
| 47 | Sunderland | 50.1 | -11 | < 1% | 1.5% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 2.4% | 1.4% | < 1% |
| 45 | Newcastle | 49.2 | -2 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 1.7% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 43 | Crystal Palace | 48.2 | -7 | < 1% | 1.2% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 64% | < 1% |
| 43 | Leeds | 46.8 | -5 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 39 | Forest | 44.0 | -5 | 1.2% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 30% |
| 36 | West Ham | 39.3 | -20 | 45% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 34 | Tottenham | 38.5 | -12 | 54% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 20 | Burnley | 22.9 | -39 | 100% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 18 | Wolves | 21.1 | -40 | 100% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
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