Arsenal increased their chances from 79% to 81% with a draw against Atletic.
| Final | Champions | |
Paris SG (54%) Bayern (46%) | ||
Arsenal (46%) Paris SG (24%) Bayern (23%) | ||
Arsenal (81%) Atletico (19%) |
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Thursday, April 30, 2026
CL: Draw in Madrid
Tuesday, April 28, 2026
CL: Advantage PSG after wild 1st-leg win
After a dramatic first leg, the tide has turned, PSG are now 54% favorites to reach the final, having flipped Bayern's pre-match 58-42 advantage.
| Final | Champions | |
Paris SG (54%) Bayern (46%) | ||
Arsenal (45%) Paris SG (25%) Bayern (24%) | ||
Arsenal (79%) Atletico (21%) |
Monday, April 27, 2026
PL: Man United nearly (>99.8%) clinched CL spot
Man United need to take two more points to clinch a place in CL mathematically. Brentford are struggling to reach Europe with a current estimated probability of 40%. They need to take 7 points in the remaining four matches to have 50% chance to reach Europe, and they need to take 8 points to have a 50% chance to reach Europa League. It's certainly tight in the Europe zone with seven teams within 4 points.
| Average Simulated Season | Probabilities | |||||||||||
| Pts | Team | Pts | GD | Relegated | Top 7 | Top 6 | Top 5 | Top 4 | Win League | ECL | EL | CL |
| 73 | Arsenal | 81.8 | +44 | < 1% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 76% | < 1% | < 1% | 100% |
| 70 | Man City | 79.1 | +41 | < 1% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 24% | < 1% | < 1% | 100% |
| 61 | Man United | 67.2 | +15 | < 1% | 100% | >99.99% | 99.81% | 90% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 99.82% |
| 58 | Aston Villa | 64.5 | +6 | < 1% | 99.99% | 99.83% | 97.9% | 52% | < 1% | < 1% | 1.1% | 98.9% |
| 58 | Liverpool | 64.3 | +14 | < 1% | 99.97% | 99.69% | 97.5% | 57% | < 1% | < 1% | 2.5% | 97.5% |
| 50 | Brighton | 56.2 | +10 | < 1% | 69% | 46% | 3.1% | < 1% | < 1% | 16% | 55% | 13% |
| 49 | Bournemouth | 54.6 | +0 | < 1% | 36% | 17% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 20% | 30% | 4.3% |
| 48 | Chelsea | 54.2 | +9 | < 1% | 40% | 18% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 12% | 60% | 4.3% |
| 48 | Brentford | 53.2 | +3 | < 1% | 20% | 7% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 18% | 18% | 1.5% |
| 48 | Fulham | 53.1 | -3 | < 1% | 16% | 6% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 14% | 15% | 1.5% |
| 47 | Everton | 52.7 | +0 | < 1% | 15% | 5% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 14% | 14% | 1.3% |
| 46 | Sunderland | 50.3 | -11 | < 1% | 2.8% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 3.8% | 2.7% | < 1% |
| 43 | Crystal Palace | 48.2 | -7 | < 1% | 1.0% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 53% | < 1% |
| 42 | Newcastle | 47.8 | -4 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 1.0% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 40 | Leeds | 45.9 | -6 | 1.0% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 39 | Forest | 44.0 | -5 | 1.8% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 21% |
| 36 | West Ham | 40.1 | -18 | 36% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 34 | Tottenham | 38.5 | -12 | 61% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 20 | Burnley | 23.6 | -38 | 100% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 17 | Wolves | 21.7 | -39 | 100% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| Important matches for EL race (EL or CL) | |||
| Newcastle vs Brighton (9.4%) | Home Win (46%) | Draw (24%) | Away Win (30%) |
| Brighton | 55% | 68% | 88% |
| Bournemouth | 38% | 35% | 29% |
| Bournemouth vs Crystal Palace (8.6%) | Home Win (54%) | Draw (22%) | Away Win (24%) |
| Bournemouth | 48% | 24% | 15% |
| Brighton | 64% | 71% | 73% |
| Everton vs Man City (7%) | Home Win (34%) | Draw (24%) | Away Win (42%) |
| Everton | 29% | 11% | 6% |
| Brentford vs West Ham (6.5%) | Home Win (57%) | Draw (21%) | Away Win (21%) |
| Brentford | 28% | 10% | 4.9% |
Sunday, April 26, 2026
PL: Man City vs Chelsea in FA cup final
Chelsea are missing Top-7 in 63% of the simulations, which means if they win the FA cup , it's quite likely that they have not already qualified to EL and that the 7th team in PL is going to Conference League rather than EL.
| Average Simulated Season | Probabilities | |||||||||||
| Pts | Team | Pts | GD | Relegated | Top 7 | Top 6 | Top 5 | Top 4 | Win League | ECL | EL | CL |
| 73 | Arsenal | 81.8 | +44 | < 1% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 76% | < 1% | < 1% | 100% |
| 70 | Man City | 79.1 | +41 | < 1% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 24% | < 1% | < 1% | 100% |
| 58 | Man United | 66.1 | +15 | < 1% | 99.99% | 99.86% | 98.7% | 83% | < 1% | < 1% | 1.2% | 98.7% |
| 58 | Aston Villa | 64.5 | +6 | < 1% | 99.98% | 99.78% | 97.7% | 56% | < 1% | < 1% | 1.2% | 98.8% |
| 58 | Liverpool | 64.3 | +14 | < 1% | 99.95% | 99.58% | 97.1% | 61% | < 1% | < 1% | 2.8% | 97.1% |
| 50 | Brighton | 56.2 | +10 | < 1% | 67% | 44% | 3.7% | < 1% | < 1% | 17% | 53% | 12% |
| 49 | Bournemouth | 54.6 | +0 | < 1% | 33% | 15% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 19% | 28% | 3.7% |
| 48 | Chelsea | 54.2 | +9 | < 1% | 37% | 17% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 12% | 59% | 3.8% |
| 48 | Brentford | 54.1 | +4 | < 1% | 30% | 14% | 1.2% | < 1% | < 1% | 20% | 26% | 3.3% |
| 48 | Fulham | 53.1 | -3 | < 1% | 15% | 5% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 14% | 13% | 1.2% |
| 47 | Everton | 52.7 | +0 | < 1% | 14% | 4.6% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 13% | 12% | 1.1% |
| 46 | Sunderland | 50.3 | -11 | < 1% | 2.5% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 3.4% | 2.3% | < 1% |
| 43 | Crystal Palace | 48.2 | -7 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 53% | < 1% |
| 42 | Newcastle | 47.8 | -4 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 40 | Leeds | 45.9 | -6 | 1.0% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 39 | Forest | 44.0 | -5 | 1.8% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 20% |
| 36 | West Ham | 40.1 | -18 | 36% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 34 | Tottenham | 38.5 | -12 | 61% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 20 | Burnley | 23.6 | -38 | 100% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 17 | Wolves | 21.7 | -39 | 100% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
Titles
| Team | League | FA Cup | League Cup | Europe | |||
| Arsenal | 76% | 44% | |||||
| Man City | 24% | 64% | 100% | ||||
| Aston Villa | 46% | ||||||
| Chelsea | 36% | ||||||
| Crystal Palace | 52% | ||||||
| Forest | 20% |
Saturday, April 25, 2026
PL: Bottom teams win
Spurs, Hammers, and Forest all won in the relegation race. In the simulations teams probably need 39-42 points to be safe and stay up. Next Spurs travel to Villa Park, while West Ham go to Brentford for a London derby.
In the top, Arsenal won with one-nil. On average they finish 2.7 points ahead of City. They win the remaining four matches and finish on 85 points in 20% of the simulations and when they do that they win the league in 98%. City on the other hand, win all remaining matches in 4% of the simulations and when they do that, they win the league in 91%. In other words, in the simulations the two top leams have it very much in their own hands.
| Average Simulated Season | Probabilities | |||||||||||
| Pts | Team | Pts | GD | Relegated | Top 7 | Top 6 | Top 5 | Top 4 | Win League | ECL | EL | CL |
| 73 | Arsenal | 81.8 | +44 | < 1% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 76% | < 1% | < 1% | 100% |
| 70 | Man City | 79.1 | +41 | < 1% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 24% | < 1% | < 1% | 100% |
| 58 | Man United | 66.1 | +15 | < 1% | 99.99% | 99.86% | 98.7% | 83% | < 1% | < 1% | 1.2% | 98.7% |
| 58 | Aston Villa | 64.5 | +6 | < 1% | 99.98% | 99.78% | 97.7% | 56% | < 1% | < 1% | 1.2% | 98.8% |
| 58 | Liverpool | 64.3 | +14 | < 1% | 99.95% | 99.58% | 97.1% | 61% | < 1% | < 1% | 2.7% | 97.1% |
| 50 | Brighton | 56.2 | +10 | < 1% | 67% | 44% | 3.7% | < 1% | < 1% | 17% | 51% | 12% |
| 49 | Bournemouth | 54.6 | +0 | < 1% | 33% | 15% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 19% | 27% | 3.7% |
| 48 | Chelsea | 54.2 | +9 | < 1% | 37% | 17% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 15% | 47% | 3.8% |
| 48 | Brentford | 54.1 | +4 | < 1% | 30% | 14% | 1.2% | < 1% | < 1% | 19% | 25% | 3.3% |
| 48 | Fulham | 53.1 | -3 | < 1% | 15% | 5% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 13% | 13% | 1.2% |
| 47 | Everton | 52.7 | +0 | < 1% | 14% | 4.6% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 13% | 12% | 1.1% |
| 46 | Sunderland | 50.3 | -11 | < 1% | 2.5% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 3.3% | 2.2% | < 1% |
| 43 | Crystal Palace | 48.2 | -7 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 53% | < 1% |
| 42 | Newcastle | 47.8 | -4 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 40 | Leeds | 45.9 | -6 | 1.0% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 13% | < 1% |
| 39 | Forest | 44.0 | -5 | 1.8% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 20% |
| 36 | West Ham | 40.1 | -18 | 36% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 34 | Tottenham | 38.5 | -12 | 61% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 20 | Burnley | 23.6 | -38 | 100% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 17 | Wolves | 21.7 | -39 | 100% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| Important matches for title race | |||
| Arsenal vs Fulham (8%) | Home Win (74%) | Draw (15%) | Away Win (10%) |
| Arsenal | 82% | 63% | 52% |
| Man City | 18% | 37% | 48% |
| Arsenal | Man City | |||||
| points | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance |
| 85 | 20% | 20% | 98.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 91% |
| 84 | 20% | < 1% | - | 4.0% | < 1% | - |
| 83 | 41% | 22% | 91% | 13% | 9% | 71% |
| 82 | 61% | 20% | 82% | 23% | 10% | 49% |
| 81 | 69% | 9% | 73% | 30% | 7% | 36% |
| 80 | 84% | 15% | 60% | 47% | 17% | 24% |
| 79 | 92% | 8% | 45% | 60% | 13% | 12% |
| 78 | 95.6% | 3.5% | 33% | 70% | 10% | 7% |
| 77 | 98.5% | 2.9% | 22% | 83% | 12% | 3.3% |
| 76 | 99.54% | 1.0% | 13% | 90% | 7% | 1.1% |
| 75 | 99.83% | < 1% | 7% | 94% | 4.5% | < 1% |
| 74 | 99.97% | < 1% | 3% | 97.6% | 3.5% | < 1% |
| 73 | 100% | < 1% | 1% | 99.02% | 1.4% | < 1% |
| 72 | 100% | < 1% | - | 99.62% | < 1% | < 1% |
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is successful, if they finish with X points
| Important matches for EL race (EL or CL) | |||
| Newcastle vs Brighton (9.6%) | Home Win (46%) | Draw (24%) | Away Win (30%) |
| Brighton | 49% | 63% | 84% |
| Bournemouth | 34% | 31% | 26% |
| Brentford | 31% | 28% | 23% |
| Man United vs Brentford (8.3%) | Home Win (55%) | Draw (22%) | Away Win (23%) |
| Brentford | 18% | 28% | 51% |
| Brighton | 66% | 63% | 56% |
| Bournemouth | 33% | 30% | 25% |
| Bournemouth vs Crystal Palace (7.9%) | Home Win (54%) | Draw (22%) | Away Win (24%) |
| Bournemouth | 43% | 21% | 13% |
| Brighton | 60% | 66% | 68% |
| Brentford vs West Ham (7%) | Home Win (57%) | Draw (22%) | Away Win (21%) |
| Brentford | 38% | 18% | 10% |
| Brighton | 60% | 66% | 68% |
| Chelsea vs Forest (5.5%) | Home Win (54%) | Draw (22%) | Away Win (24%) |
| Chelsea | 62% | 42% | 35% |
| Brighton | 61% | 65% | 67% |
| Brentford | 26% | 30% | 32% |
| Bournemouth | 28% | 33% | 34% |
| Important matches for Europe race (ECL, EL or CL) | |||
| Bournemouth vs Crystal Palace (10.1%) | Home Win (54%) | Draw (22%) | Away Win (24%) |
| Bournemouth | 65% | 38% | 26% |
| Brentford vs West Ham (9.8%) | Home Win (57%) | Draw (22%) | Away Win (21%) |
| Brentford | 61% | 34% | 23% |
| Man United vs Brentford (9.1%) | Home Win (55%) | Draw (22%) | Away Win (23%) |
| Brentford | 35% | 49% | 73% |
| Bournemouth | 53% | 49% | 43% |
| Everton | 28% | 25% | 20% |
| Newcastle vs Brighton (7.6%) | Home Win (46%) | Draw (24%) | Away Win (30%) |
| Brighton | 70% | 82% | 95% |
| Newcastle | 2.4% | < 1% | < 1% |
| Chelsea vs Forest (7.3%) | Home Win (54%) | Draw (22%) | Away Win (24%) |
| Chelsea | 78% | 56% | 46% |
| Important matches for avoiding relegation | |||
| Aston Villa vs Tottenham (9.7%) | Home Win (66%) | Draw (19%) | Away Win (16%) |
| Tottenham | 31% | 42% | 68% |
| West Ham | 71% | 61% | 39% |
| Brentford vs West Ham (9.6%) | Home Win (57%) | Draw (22%) | Away Win (21%) |
| West Ham | 55% | 66% | 87% |
| Tottenham | 47% | 37% | 19% |
| Tottenham | West Ham | Forest | Leeds | |||||||||
| points | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance |
| 48 | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | 100% | 11% | 7% | 100% | 24% | 5% | 100% |
| 47 | < 1% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - | 14% | 3.4% | 100% | 42% | 17% | 100% |
| 46 | < 1% | < 1% | 100% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 99.9% | 28% | 14% | 100% | 58% | 16% | 100% |
| 45 | < 1% | < 1% | - | 6% | 3.8% | 99.97% | 44% | 15% | >99.99% | 67% | 10% | >99.99% |
| 44 | 2.3% | 1.8% | 99.4% | 8% | 2.0% | 99.5% | 53% | 9% | 99.98% | 82% | 15% | 99.92% |
| 43 | 7% | 4.7% | 97.2% | 17% | 10% | 96.1% | 72% | 18% | 99.83% | 92% | 9% | 99.1% |
| 42 | 9% | 2.3% | 90% | 30% | 13% | 93% | 85% | 13% | 98.8% | 95.3% | 3.7% | 97.9% |
| 41 | 21% | 11% | 76% | 39% | 8% | 82% | 90% | 6% | 96.4% | 98.8% | 3.5% | 88% |
| 40 | 36% | 15% | 64% | 58% | 20% | 66% | 97.1% | 7% | 90% | 100% | 1.2% | 65% |
| 39 | 44% | 9% | 43% | 76% | 17% | 56% | 100% | 2.9% | 76% | 100% | < 1% | - |
| 38 | 64% | 20% | 24% | 83% | 8% | 37% | 100% | < 1% | - | 100% | < 1% | - |
| 37 | 80% | 16% | 17% | 94% | 11% | 20% | 100% | < 1% | - | 100% | < 1% | - |
| 36 | 86% | 7% | 6% | 100% | 6% | 13% | 100% | < 1% | - | 100% | < 1% | - |
| 35 | 95.6% | 9% | < 1% | 100% | < 1% | - | 100% | < 1% | - | 100% | < 1% | - |
| 34 | 100% | 4.4% | < 1% | 100% | < 1% | - | 100% | < 1% | - | 100% | < 1% | - |
| 33 | 100% | < 1% | - | 100% | < 1% | - | 100% | < 1% | - | 100% | < 1% | - |
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is successful, if they finish with X points
Friday, April 24, 2026
PL: Forest out of the woods
Forest thrashed Sunderland and the relegation battle is thereby a head-to-head bnattle between Hammers and Spurs. All their remaining matches are important but Tottenham's trip up to already relegated Wolverhampton is an opportunity.
Below are the stats for the three upcoming matches and their chances given how manu points they finish on.
| Important matches for avoiding relegation | |||
| Wolves vs Tottenham (11%) | Home Win (42%) | Draw (24%) | Away Win (34%) |
| Tottenham | 24% | 33% | 55% |
| West Ham | 76% | 68% | 47% |
| West Ham vs Everton (10.7%) | Home Win (41%) | Draw (24%) | Away Win (35%) |
| West Ham | 79% | 60% | 49% |
| Tottenham | 23% | 41% | 51% |
| Brentford vs West Ham (7.5%) | Home Win (57%) | Draw (21%) | Away Win (21%) |
| West Ham | 56% | 66% | 83% |
| Tottenham | 44% | 35% | 19% |
| Tottenham | West Ham | |||||
| points | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance |
| 46 | < 1% | < 1% | 100% | < 1% | < 1% | 100% |
| 45 | < 1% | < 1% | - | 2.6% | 1.7% | 99.9% |
| 44 | < 1% | < 1% | 99.7% | 3.8% | 1.2% | 99.8% |
| 43 | 2.8% | 1.8% | 98.8% | 9% | 5% | 98.5% |
| 42 | 4.0% | 1.2% | 94% | 16% | 7% | 97.0% |
| 41 | 10% | 6% | 87% | 23% | 6% | 92% |
| 40 | 17% | 8% | 79% | 37% | 15% | 83% |
| 39 | 24% | 7% | 63% | 51% | 14% | 76% |
| 38 | 39% | 15% | 49% | 62% | 11% | 61% |
| 37 | 53% | 14% | 38% | 77% | 15% | 48% |
| 36 | 63% | 11% | 23% | 87% | 10% | 37% |
| 35 | 78% | 15% | 12% | 93% | 5% | 21% |
| 34 | 88% | 10% | 7% | 98.0% | 5% | 12% |
| 33 | 93% | 5% | 2.0% | 100% | 2.0% | 7% |
| 32 | 98.1% | 4.9% | < 1% | 100% | < 1% | - |
| 31 | 100% | 1.9% | < 1% | 100% | < 1% | - |
| 30 | 100% | < 1% | - | 100% | < 1% | - |
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is successful, if they finish with X points
Coming Matches
| Home | Draw | Away | ||
| Fulham | 38% | 24% | 38% | Aston Villa |
| Liverpool | 62% | 20% | 18% | Crystal Palace |
| West Ham | 41% | 24% | 35% | Everton |
| Wolves | 42% | 24% | 34% | Tottenham |
| Arsenal | 72% | 16% | 12% | Newcastle |
| Man United | 55% | 22% | 23% | Brentford |
| Leeds | 63% | 20% | 17% | Burnley |
| Brentford | 57% | 21% | 21% | West Ham |
| Newcastle | 46% | 24% | 30% | Brighton |
| Wolves | 46% | 24% | 30% | Sunderland |
Most likely combo of teams in CL
| 61% | Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Man United |
| 18% | Arsenal, Aston Villa, Forest, Liverpool, Man City, Man United |
| 5.0% | Arsenal, Aston Villa, Brighton, Liverpool, Man City, Man United |
| 2.6% | Arsenal, Aston Villa, Brighton, Man City, Man United |
| 1.8% | Arsenal, Aston Villa, Bournemouth, Liverpool, Man City, Man United |
| 1.7% | Arsenal, Aston Villa, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Man United |
| 1.6% | Arsenal, Aston Villa, Everton, Liverpool, Man City, Man United |
| 1.2% | Arsenal, Aston Villa, Brentford, Liverpool, Man City, Man United |
| 1.1% | Arsenal, Aston Villa, Chelsea, Man City, Man United |
| 1.1% | Arsenal, Aston Villa, Brentford, Man City, Man United |
Most likely combo of teams being relegated
| 63% | Burnley, Tottenham, Wolves |
| 36% | Burnley, West Ham, Wolves |
Wednesday, April 22, 2026
PL: Man City top of the table.
Man City with an early winner against Burnley meaning they go top of the table with same points and goal difference as Arsenal, but three more goals. Next in the title race is Arsenal hosting the Magpies, and as you can see in the table below there is a 30% swing between a win and a loss, so obviously a crucial match. In the simulations, Man City drop on average 5.9 points while Arsenal drop 3.9 points, but these simulations do not take into account that some of the opponents may be unmotivated or that title contenders might get nervous.
Bournemouth dropped the win in the last minute losing two points in the race for Europa. They still get 24% to get to EL.
| Important matches for title race | |||
| Arsenal vs Newcastle (8%) | Home Win (72%) | Draw (16%) | Away Win (12%) |
| Arsenal | 77% | 59% | 47% |
| Man City | 23% | 41% | 53% |
| Arsenal | Man City | |||||
| points | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance |
| 85 | 14% | 14% | 98.5% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 91% |
| 84 | 14% | < 1% | - | 4.0% | < 1% | - |
| 83 | 33% | 19% | 93% | 13% | 9% | 74% |
| 82 | 49% | 16% | 84% | 23% | 10% | 57% |
| 81 | 59% | 10% | 74% | 30% | 7% | 45% |
| 80 | 75% | 17% | 63% | 47% | 17% | 31% |
| 79 | 85% | 9% | 48% | 60% | 13% | 19% |
| 78 | 91% | 6% | 35% | 70% | 10% | 12% |
| 77 | 95.8% | 5% | 25% | 83% | 12% | 6% |
| 76 | 98.0% | 2.2% | 15% | 90% | 7% | 3.0% |
| 75 | 99.12% | 1.1% | 9% | 94% | 4.5% | 1.4% |
| 74 | 99.73% | < 1% | 5% | 97.6% | 3.5% | < 1% |
| 73 | 99.92% | < 1% | 2% | 99.03% | 1.4% | < 1% |
| 72 | 99.98% | < 1% | < 1% | 99.63% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 71 | >99.99% | < 1% | < 1% | 99.93% | < 1% | < 1% |
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is successful, if they finish with X points
| Important matches for EL race (EL or CL) | |||
| Newcastle vs Brighton (10.2%) | Home Win (46%) | Draw (24%) | Away Win (30%) |
| Brighton | 44% | 58% | 81% |
| Newcastle | 1.2% | < 1% | < 1% |
| Bournemouth | 30% | 27% | 22% |
| Man United vs Brentford (7.8%) | Home Win (55%) | Draw (22%) | Away Win (23%) |
| Brentford | 15% | 25% | 47% |
| Brighton | 62% | 59% | 52% |
| Bournemouth | 29% | 26% | 22% |
| West Ham vs Everton (7.2%) | Home Win (41%) | Draw (24%) | Away Win (35%) |
| Everton | 12% | 19% | 40% |
| Brighton | 62% | 60% | 54% |
| Brentford vs West Ham (6.5%) | Home Win (57%) | Draw (21%) | Away Win (21%) |
| Brentford | 34% | 15% | 9% |
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