PL: A first win for Spurs

 Tottenham won against Coventry. In two thirds of the simulations we find the three relegation teams among Coventry, Hull, Sunderland, and Ipswich.

Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
21	Man City	86.6	+49		>99.99%	>99.99%	99.96%	99.85%	56%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	99.96%
18	Arsenal	85.1	+45		>99.99%	99.98%	99.94%	99.78%	43%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	99.95%
12	Liverpool	68.0	+22	< 0.1%	94%	89%	81%	67%	0.59%	3.4%	12%	81%
16	Brighton	65.4	+29	< 0.1%	89%	82%	71%	54%	0.32%	2.9%	22%	71%
13	Chelsea	62.0	+14	< 0.1%	75%	64%	50%	31%	< 0.1%	9%	24%	49%
8	Aston Villa	58.5	+8	< 0.1%	57%	44%	29%	16%	< 0.1%	11%	27%	30%
10	Brentford	55.9	+10	0.15%	43%	31%	19%	9%	< 0.1%	13%	24%	19%
8	Newcastle	55.1	+3	0.24%	37%	26%	15%	7%	< 0.1%	12%	22%	15%
7	Man United	54.3	+7	0.30%	35%	24%	14%	7%	< 0.1%	11%	21%	14%
6	Bournemouth	52.6	+2	0.63%	25%	16%	9%	3.8%	< 0.1%	8%	14%	24%
10	Leeds	50.8	-0	1.0%	17%	11%	5%	2.2%	< 0.1%	8%	12%	5%
10	Everton	49.5	-4	1.4%	12%	7%	3.4%	1.3%	< 0.1%	8%	9%	3.4%
7	Crystal Palace	47.9	-11	2.8%	9%	4.8%	2.2%	0.82%	< 0.1%	6%	7%	10%
5	Forest	43.5	-11	9%	2.6%	1.3%	0.52%	0.15%		2.0%	3.1%	0.52%
6	Tottenham	43.4	-13	10%	2.5%	1.2%	0.49%	0.16%		1.9%	2.9%	0.49%
5	Fulham	42.2	-12	12%	1.8%	0.83%	0.32%	< 0.1%		3.7%	2.7%	0.32%
9	Ipswich	35.0	-34	51%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%		< 0.1%	0.24%	< 0.1%
4	Sunderland	34.9	-26	50%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%		0.35%	0.48%	1.6%
6	Coventry	31.2	-38	74%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%		< 0.1%	0.18%	< 0.1%
9	Hull	28.4	-40	87%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%			< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%

Titles

Team	League	FA Cup	League Cup	Europe
Man City	56%	23%	25%	15%
Arsenal	43%	26%	42%	20%
Liverpool	0.59%	9%	15%	4.0%
Brighton	0.32%	5.0%	1.5%	40%
Chelsea	< 0.1%	4.3%	3.4%
Aston Villa	< 0.1%	5%	1.1%	1.6%
Brentford	< 0.1%	3.3%	2.3%
Newcastle	< 0.1%	4.2%	2.2%
Man United	< 0.1%	4.2%		0.68%
Bournemouth	< 0.1%	3.3%	1.0%	16%
Leeds	< 0.1%	1.7%
Everton	< 0.1%	2.0%	1.5%
Crystal Palace	< 0.1%	1.9%	1.7%	8%
Forest		1.4%
Tottenham		1.2%
Fulham		1.5%	2.3%
Ipswich		0.19%
Sunderland		0.42%	0.26%	1.6%
Coventry		0.17%
Hull		< 0.1%

 

Favorites with perfect start

Favourites, Leverkusen, Bournemouth, Benfica, and Juventus have all started with a two wins. In Conference League, Brighton remains the big favorite followed by Atalanta.

Europa League

Pos	Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Top 24	Top 16	Top 8	R16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
1	6	Benfica	20	18-6	99.99%	99.59%	94%	98.9%	74%	48%	28%	15%
2	6	Bayer Leverkusen	19	21-9	99.97%	99.05%	89%	98.2%	76%	51%	32%	19%
3	6	Bournemouth	19	16-5	99.96%	99.12%	88%	98.1%	74%	49%	29%	16%
4	6	Juventus	18	16-4	99.91%	97.9%	81%	96.4%	69%	42%	23%	12%
5	6	Lyon	16	12-6	99.39%	92%	58%	89%	54%	27%	12%	6%
6	6	Sunderland	16	9-5	99.19%	91%	53%	82%	38%	14%	4.6%	1.6%
7	6	Olympiakos	16	12-9	99.11%	90%	52%	80%	35%	11%	3.3%	1.1%
8	3	Crystal Palace	15	17-10	97.9%	86%	46%	86%	55%	30%	16%	8%
9	4	Union Saint-Gilloise	15	14-8	98.3%	87%	45%	85%	52%	27%	13%	6%
10	3	Milan	15	12-7	98.6%	87%	42%	86%	54%	29%	15%	7%
11	4	Rennes	14	12-8	96.1%	77%	33%	74%	35%	14%	5%	1.9%
12	6	Ferencvaros	14	10-7	97.6%	79%	29%	61%	18%	4.2%	0.89%	0.22%
13	6	Besiktas	13	14-11	95.0%	70%	24%	61%	21%	6%	1.7%	0.50%
14	6	Omonia	12	15-14	90%	55%	14%	44%	10%	2.1%	0.38%	< 0.1%
15	3	AZ	12	9-12	84%	49%	10%	46%	14%	4.0%	1.0%	0.30%
16	1	Real Sociedad	11	13-10	85%	47%	8%	58%	25%	11%	4.5%	1.8%
17	4	Dinamo Zagreb	11	12-12	82%	44%	9%	41%	11%	2.8%	0.62%	0.16%
18	3	Red Bull Salzburg	11	12-14	80%	41%	7%	37%	9%	2.1%	0.43%	0.10%
19	4	Sparta Prague	10	14-16	69%	29%	4.5%	30%	7%	1.5%	0.29%	< 0.1%
20	0	Marseille	10	13-15	69%	30%	3.4%	44%	18%	8%	3.0%	1.2%
21	0	Celta Vigo	9	13-13	61%	23%	2.5%	37%	14%	6%	2.1%	0.77%
22	1	Sturm Graz	9	9-13	54%	18%	1.5%	19%	3.7%	0.71%	0.12%	< 0.1%
23	3	Jagiellonia Bialystok	9	14-19	54%	17%	1.9%	17%	2.8%	0.44%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
24	0	TSG Hoffenheim	9	9-15	52%	17%	1.8%	29%	10%	3.6%	1.2%	0.40%
25	0	Lech Poznan	9	10-23	46%	12%	0.75%	19%	4.9%	1.3%	0.30%	< 0.1%
26	0	Anderlecht	8	10-11	49%	16%	1.3%	20%	4.9%	1.2%	0.25%	< 0.1%
27	0	Celtic	8	10-16	41%	12%	0.84%	18%	4.5%	1.1%	0.26%	< 0.1%
28	1	NEC	8	10-19	37%	10%	0.76%	10%	1.4%	0.19%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
29	1	Levski Sofia	7	7-12	29%	5%	0.26%	7%	0.89%	0.11%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
30	3	Torreense	7	7-14	27%	4.6%	0.20%	2.8%	0.14%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
31	0	Viktoria Plzen	7	5-12	28%	5%	0.21%	9%	1.7%	0.33%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
32	1	Hapoel Be'er Sheva	7	5-13	25%	4.3%	0.20%	8%	1.5%	0.27%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
33	3	OFI	6	10-16	20%	2.9%	0.10%	2.4%	0.15%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
34	0	Celje	6	9-20	18%	3.0%	0.12%	2.7%	0.22%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
35	1	Lillestrom	5	4-17	8%	0.81%	< 0.1%	1.2%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
36	0	Ararat-Armenia	4	13-20	9%	0.93%	< 0.1%	0.73%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%

Expected Requirement

	Top 24		Top 16		Top 8
	Pts	GD	Pts	GD	Pts	GD
1%	10	12-13	13	14-8	18	13-6
5%	10	11-15	13	12-10	17	14-5
25%	9	12-14	12	16-12	16	18-10
50%	9	9-15	12	11-11	16	12-8
75%	8	7-9	11	14-11	15	11-4
95%	8	8-16	11	9-11	14	15-8
99%	7	7-11	10	10-9	14	10-7

Important for Top-8
Besiktas vs Crystal Palace (16.3%)	Home Win (28%)	Draw (26%)	Away Win (46%)
Crystal Palace	24%	38%	64%
Besiktas	45%	22%	12%
Bournemouth vs Milan (13.9%)	Home Win (52%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (24%)
Milan	29%	44%	70%
Bournemouth	96.0%	86%	75%
Juventus vs Rennes (12.8%)	Home Win (59%)	Draw (22%)	Away Win (19%)
Rennes	23%	35%	61%
Juventus	90%	74%	61%
Olympiakos vs Sparta Prague (10.7%)	Home Win (55%)	Draw (25%)	Away Win (20%)
Olympiakos	66%	40%	27%
Sparta Prague	1.7%	4.0%	13%
TSG Hoffenheim vs Lyon (10.4%)	Home Win (37%)	Draw (23%)	Away Win (40%)
Lyon	40%	54%	77%
TSG Hoffenheim	4.2%	0.7%	0.20%
Lech Poznan vs Sunderland (9.9%)	Home Win (36%)	Draw (27%)	Away Win (37%)
Sunderland	35%	49%	73%
Lech Poznan	1.9%	0.23%	< 0.1%
Omonia vs Benfica (8.4%)	Home Win (19%)	Draw (22%)	Away Win (60%)
Omonia	32%	14%	7%
Benfica	83%	91%	97.7%
Union Saint-Gilloise vs Hapoel Be'er Sheva (6.2%)	Home Win (71%)	Draw (18%)	Away Win (10%)
Union Saint-Gilloise	53%	28%	18%
Hapoel Be'er Sheva	< 0.1%	0.18%	1.3%

Important for Knockout Stage
Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Anderlecht (18.9%)	Home Win (38%)	Draw (26%)	Away Win (37%)
Jagiellonia Bialystok	76%	49%	34%
Anderlecht	31%	45%	70%
Celtic vs Celta Vigo (18.1%)	Home Win (35%)	Draw (25%)	Away Win (40%)
Celta Vigo	42%	57%	80%
Celtic	64%	37%	25%
Sturm Graz vs Marseille (17.3%)	Home Win (28%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (48%)
Sturm Graz	80%	56%	39%
Marseille	49%	63%	84%
Viktoria Plzen vs Levski Sofia (16.3%)	Home Win (53%)	Draw (26%)	Away Win (22%)
Levski Sofia	17%	31%	58%
Viktoria Plzen	41%	17%	10%
Dinamo Zagreb vs NEC (15.7%)	Home Win (60%)	Draw (20%)	Away Win (20%)
Dinamo Zagreb	92%	74%	59%
NEC	27%	40%	66%
Celje vs Red Bull Salzburg (15.1%)	Home Win (27%)	Draw (23%)	Away Win (50%)
Red Bull Salzburg	61%	75%	93%
Celje	36%	15%	9%
Ararat-Armenia vs AZ (10.9%)	Home Win (16%)	Draw (20%)	Away Win (64%)
AZ	63%	76%	92%
Ararat-Armenia	26%	9%	4.5%
Lillestrom vs Real Sociedad (10.9%)	Home Win (15%)	Draw (19%)	Away Win (66%)
Real Sociedad	62%	77%	92%
Lillestrom	25%	9%	3.9%
Lech Poznan vs Sunderland (10.7%)	Home Win (36%)	Draw (27%)	Away Win (37%)
Lech Poznan	69%	40%	28%
Sunderland	98.2%	99.4%	99.97%
TSG Hoffenheim vs Lyon (9.5%)	Home Win (37%)	Draw (23%)	Away Win (40%)
TSG Hoffenheim	73%	48%	35%
Lyon	98.6%	99.6%	99.97%
Ferencvaros vs Torreense (8.9%)	Home Win (73%)	Draw (17%)	Away Win (10%)
Torreense	21%	34%	65%
Ferencvaros	99.54%	95%	88%
Olympiakos vs Sparta Prague (7.2%)	Home Win (55%)	Draw (25%)	Away Win (20%)
Sparta Prague	59%	73%	91%
Olympiakos	99.94%	98.9%	97.0%
Union Saint-Gilloise vs Hapoel Be'er Sheva (7%)	Home Win (71%)	Draw (18%)	Away Win (10%)
Hapoel Be'er Sheva	19%	32%	58%
Union Saint-Gilloise	99.50%	96.9%	93%

Conference League

Pos	Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Top 24	Top 16	Top 8	R16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
1	3	Atalanta	17	13-3	99.97%	99.46%	95.1%	99.29%	79%	55%	34%	17%
2	3	Brighton	14	16-3	99.83%	97.3%	83%	98.6%	87%	73%	57%	40%
3	3	Copenhagen	13	16-9	99.37%	93%	67%	89%	51%	22%	8%	2.5%
4	3	Monaco	13	13-8	99.34%	92%	64%	94%	71%	46%	27%	13%
5	3	Twente	13	7-2	99.48%	93%	64%	87%	44%	16%	4.8%	1.4%
6	1	Midtjylland	13	13-9	98.8%	90%	60%	88%	53%	25%	10%	3.5%
7	3	SC Freiburg	13	11-7	98.9%	90%	60%	93%	67%	43%	24%	11%
8	3	Trabzonspor	11	14-9	96.1%	78%	40%	75%	35%	13%	3.8%	1.1%
9	3	Mjaellby AIF	11	10-7	96.6%	77%	34%	56%	12%	1.8%	0.21%	< 0.1%
10	0	Braga	10	16-9	94%	71%	30%	77%	45%	22%	9%	3.5%
11	3	Lugano	10	11-6	94%	69%	29%	66%	27%	9%	2.3%	0.59%
12	1	Getafe	10	11-8	94%	65%	21%	71%	35%	16%	6%	1.9%
13	3	Gent	10	4-2	90%	62%	24%	60%	23%	7%	1.8%	0.44%
14	3	Panathinaikos	10	8-10	89%	54%	16%	58%	23%	8%	2.2%	0.58%
15	3	Brann	10	9-12	86%	53%	18%	48%	15%	3.4%	0.62%	0.12%
16	0	Red Star Belgrade	9	16-9	89%	57%	19%	61%	26%	10%	2.9%	0.83%
17	1	Nordsjaelland	9	11-10	84%	48%	13%	53%	20%	7%	1.7%	0.45%
18	3	Hajduk Split	9	8-9	81%	44%	12%	41%	11%	2.6%	0.46%	< 0.1%
19	1	Universitatea Craiova	8	11-9	80%	41%	9%	39%	11%	2.4%	0.43%	< 0.1%
20	0	AGF	8	6-4	76%	38%	9%	40%	12%	3.0%	0.61%	0.13%
21	1	Riga	8	6-6	73%	33%	6%	24%	3.8%	0.48%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
22	1	Hearts	8	9-12	70%	29%	5%	28%	6%	1.1%	0.15%	< 0.1%
23	3	Sint-Truiden	7	9-5	73%	32%	6%	38%	12%	3.3%	0.71%	0.17%
24	0	Ajax	7	9-9	64%	27%	6%	42%	19%	8%	2.7%	0.86%
25	0	Thun	7	7-9	58%	23%	4.1%	25%	6%	1.4%	0.22%	< 0.1%
26	0	Jablonec	6	9-13	43%	11%	1.3%	15%	3.0%	0.54%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
27	1	Egnatia	6	6-10	42%	9%	0.76%	6%	0.52%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
28	0	Borac Banja Luka	5	7-9	36%	9%	0.88%	9%	1.2%	0.13%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
29	1	Kairat	5	5-13	24%	4.3%	0.33%	4.4%	0.45%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
30	0	CSKA Sofia	4	6-9	25%	5%	0.47%	7%	1.0%	0.13%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
31	0	KuPS	4	4-8	22%	4.0%	0.31%	5%	0.70%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
32	0	Kauno Zalgiris	4	3-20	11%	1.6%	< 0.1%	1.3%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
33	0	Iberia 1999	3	2-15	6%	0.62%	< 0.1%	0.56%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
34	0	Lincoln Red Imps	2	9-16	4.6%	0.42%	< 0.1%	0.36%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
35	0	Inter Club d'Escaldes	1	7-14	2.8%	0.24%	< 0.1%	0.20%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
36	0	Pafos	1	2-16	0.96%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%

Expected Requirement

	Top 24		Top 16		Top 8
	Pts	GD	Pts	GD	Pts	GD
1%	8	7-8	10	15-8	13	18-5
5%	7	10-9	10	11-8	13	15-8
25%	7	6-8	10	9-9	13	8-4
50%	7	3-8	9	14-11	12	10-3
75%	6	8-10	9	6-5	12	10-7
95%	6	8-17	8	9-7	11	12-8
99%	5	5-8	8	6-6	11	10-9

Important for Top-8
Monaco vs SC Freiburg (23.3%)	Home Win (49%)	Draw (22%)	Away Win (29%)
Monaco	83%	56%	37%
SC Freiburg	45%	62%	85%
Red Star Belgrade vs Copenhagen (19.7%)	Home Win (42%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (34%)
Red Star Belgrade	35%	11%	4.7%
Copenhagen	50%	66%	88%
Midtjylland vs Sint-Truiden (18%)	Home Win (62%)	Draw (20%)	Away Win (18%)
Midtjylland	75%	43%	27%
Sint-Truiden	2.0%	6%	23%
Getafe vs Lugano (17.1%)	Home Win (52%)	Draw (28%)	Away Win (20%)
Getafe	34%	10%	3.9%
Lugano	17%	31%	59%
Braga vs Gent (16.9%)	Home Win (60%)	Draw (23%)	Away Win (17%)
Braga	43%	15%	6%
Gent	15%	27%	53%
Trabzonspor vs Hearts (12.9%)	Home Win (63%)	Draw (20%)	Away Win (16%)
Trabzonspor	52%	25%	15%
Hearts	1.8%	5.0%	20%
Iberia 1999 vs Mjaellby AIF (12.5%)	Home Win (24%)	Draw (26%)	Away Win (50%)
Mjaellby AIF	10%	21%	52%
Lincoln Red Imps vs Twente (10.4%)	Home Win (10%)	Draw (17%)	Away Win (73%)
Twente	26%	41%	74%
Thun vs Hajduk Split (9%)	Home Win (46%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (31%)
Hajduk Split	4.3%	9%	27%
Thun	8%	1.4%	0.5%
Jablonec vs Brighton (7.5%)	Home Win (9%)	Draw (15%)	Away Win (76%)
Brighton	55%	68%	89%
Jablonec	8%	1.5%	0.48%
Ajax vs Atalanta (6.7%)	Home Win (29%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (46%)
Ajax	14%	3.4%	1.4%
Atalanta	90%	95%	98.9%
Kairat vs Panathinaikos (6%)	Home Win (18%)	Draw (25%)	Away Win (57%)
Panathinaikos	3.5%	8%	24%
Kairat	1.5%	0.17%	< 0.1%
Kauno Zalgiris vs Brann (5.6%)	Home Win (20%)	Draw (23%)	Away Win (58%)
Brann	4.9%	9%	26%

Important for Knockout Stage
Borac Banja Luka vs KuPS (19.5%)	Home Win (44%)	Draw (30%)	Away Win (27%)
Borac Banja Luka	55%	27%	15%
KuPS	10%	20%	46%
Thun vs Hajduk Split (18.6%)	Home Win (46%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (31%)
Thun	77%	50%	35%
Hajduk Split	69%	85%	97.1%
Kairat vs Panathinaikos (17.7%)	Home Win (18%)	Draw (25%)	Away Win (57%)
Kairat	56%	23%	13%
Panathinaikos	68%	84%	97.1%
AGF vs Egnatia (15.8%)	Home Win (71%)	Draw (18%)	Away Win (11%)
AGF	85%	60%	43%
Egnatia	33%	51%	81%
Nordsjaelland vs CSKA Sofia (15.2%)	Home Win (65%)	Draw (21%)	Away Win (14%)
Nordsjaelland	93%	73%	58%
CSKA Sofia	17%	30%	58%
Kauno Zalgiris vs Brann (14.5%)	Home Win (20%)	Draw (23%)	Away Win (58%)
Brann	66%	80%	95.2%
Kauno Zalgiris	31%	11%	4.7%
Inter Club d'Escaldes vs Universitatea Craiova (12.5%)	Home Win (15%)	Draw (20%)	Away Win (64%)
Universitatea Craiova	53%	67%	91%
Inter Club d'Escaldes	11%	2.5%	0.8%
Pafos vs Riga (10.2%)	Home Win (11%)	Draw (18%)	Away Win (71%)
Riga	41%	55%	83%
Pafos	6%	0.9%	0.23%
Trabzonspor vs Hearts (9.8%)	Home Win (63%)	Draw (20%)	Away Win (16%)
Hearts	62%	76%	94%
Trabzonspor	99.2%	94%	87%
Ajax vs Atalanta (8.7%)	Home Win (29%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (46%)
Ajax	86%	65%	50%
Midtjylland vs Sint-Truiden (8.3%)	Home Win (62%)	Draw (20%)	Away Win (18%)
Sint-Truiden	65%	80%	95.5%
Midtjylland	99.83%	98.2%	95.8%
Getafe vs Lugano (7.1%)	Home Win (52%)	Draw (28%)	Away Win (20%)
Getafe	98.9%	91%	83%
Lugano	91%	96.5%	99.5%
Iberia 1999 vs Mjaellby AIF (6.9%)	Home Win (24%)	Draw (26%)	Away Win (50%)
Iberia 1999	15%	4.1%	1.7%
Mjaellby AIF	90%	96.6%	99.63%
Braga vs Gent (6.7%)	Home Win (60%)	Draw (23%)	Away Win (17%)
Braga	98.2%	91%	83%
Gent	86%	94%	98.9%
Red Star Belgrade vs Copenhagen (6.3%)	Home Win (42%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (34%)
Red Star Belgrade	97.6%	88%	78%
Copenhagen	98.7%	99.6%	99.97%
Jablonec vs Brighton (5.9%)	Home Win (9%)	Draw (15%)	Away Win (76%)
Jablonec	79%	54%	36%
Brighton	98.7%	99.6%	99.99%

Which countries get extra CL spots

		Score
Country	Probability	Average	Min	Max
England	87%	18.92	10.78	25.67
Germany	27%	15.78	7.79	25.43
Denmark	23%	15.61	7.5	24.63
Portugal	18%	15.08	6.9	24.7
Italy	16%	15.01	7.21	24.64
Spain	15%	15	7.13	23.31
France	9%	14.34	6.57	23.5
Belgium	3.9%	13.16	5.8	23.8
Netherlands	0.13%	10.8	4.83	20.17
Turkey	< 0.1%	10.35	4.5	19.7
Serbia	< 0.1%	9.27	4	17.75
Cyprus	< 0.1%	7.23	3.5	17
Norway	< 0.1%	8.44	4.1	17.1
Greece	< 0.1%	8.53	4.17	15.58

Number of quarterfinalists from Germany; 203 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4	5
Probability	0.77%	8%	27%	39%	21%	4.2%
Chance if	< 0.1%	0.7%	6%	25%	57%	86%

Number of quarterfinalists from Denmark; 199 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	14%	44%	35%	7%
Chance if	0.5%	9%	39%	80%

Number of semifinalists from Germany; 179 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4
Probability	10%	33%	38%	17%	2.3%
Chance if	1.8%	10%	30%	62%	92%

Number of quarterfinalists from Portugal; 170 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4
Probability	9%	38%	40%	13%	0.80%
Chance if	0.1%	3.3%	21%	57%	94%

Number of teams in last-16 stage from Germany; 163 mbit

n	2	3	4	5	6	7
Probability	0.71%	8%	30%	39%	19%	3.0%
Chance if	< 0.1%	1.0%	9%	29%	57%	82%

Number of quarterfinalists from Italy; 162 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4	5
Probability	1.3%	11%	32%	36%	17%	3.0%
Chance if	< 0.1%	0.3%	3.1%	15%	43%	78%

Number of semifinalists from Denmark; 162 mbit

n	0	1	2
Probability	50%	43%	7%
Chance if	6%	34%	78%

Number of quarterfinalists from Spain; 160 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
Probability	1.2%	11%	30%	34%	18%	5%	0.73%
Chance if		0.2%	2.2%	11%	33%	64%	89%

Number of teams in last-16 stage from Denmark; 153 mbit

n	1	2	3	4
Probability	6%	34%	46%	15%
Chance if	0.1%	5%	27%	62%

Number of quarterfinalists from England; 151 mbit

n	2	3	4	5	6	7	8
Probability	1.4%	7%	20%	31%	26%	11%	2.2%
Chance if	18%	47%	76%	92%	98.3%	99.7%	99.99%