Champions League

We have simulated the league phase a million times and most of the time 8-10 points are required to reach top-24 and the knockout stage, while 14-17 points are required to finish top-8. Probabilities for teams are shown below in the table. 

Pos	Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Top 24	Top 16	Top 8	R16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
1	0	Arsenal	18	18-6	99.53%	96.0%	80%	97.0%	78%	59%	43%	28%
2	0	Bayern Munich	16	18-8	97.8%	88%	62%	91%	66%	43%	26%	14%
3	0	Real Madrid	16	17-9	98.0%	88%	59%	87%	53%	28%	13%	6%
4	0	Inter Milan	16	19-15	97.4%	86%	55%	83%	46%	21%	9%	3.6%
5	0	Barcelona	15	17-4	96.8%	84%	53%	86%	55%	32%	16%	8%
6	0	Liverpool	15	22-12	95.7%	82%	52%	82%	48%	24%	11%	4.7%
7	0	Paris Saint-Germain	15	19-9	96.4%	83%	51%	86%	57%	34%	19%	9%
8	0	Man City	15	14-8	95%	78%	47%	84%	56%	34%	19%	9%
9	0	Aston Villa	15	19-14	95%	78%	46%	80%	47%	25%	11%	5%
10	0	Man United	14	21-11	94%	75%	42%	78%	45%	23%	11%	4.6%
11	0	Sporting CP	14	11-10	92%	68%	32%	67%	31%	12%	4.4%	1.6%
12	0	Borussia Dortmund	13	12-9	87%	60%	25%	60%	26%	10%	3.3%	1.1%
13	0	Porto	13	12-10	85%	58%	25%	56%	22%	7%	2.2%	0.68%
14	0	VfB Stuttgart	12	14-7	82%	53%	21%	49%	16%	4.4%	1.0%	0.28%
15	0	Atletico Madrid	12	11-10	78%	47%	17%	50%	21%	8%	2.5%	0.85%
16	0	PSV Eindhoven	12	14-14	78%	46%	16%	43%	14%	3.7%	0.89%	0.23%
17	0	Roma	12	11-11	78%	46%	16%	46%	17%	5%	1.5%	0.46%
18	0	Napoli	12	14-15	78%	45%	15%	45%	15%	4.6%	1.2%	0.35%
19	0	RB Leipzig	11	16-15	73%	39%	12%	38%	12%	3.3%	0.78%	0.21%
20	0	Villarreal	11	14-15	70%	36%	11%	36%	11%	3.1%	0.73%	0.19%
21	0	Real Betis	10	15-12	66%	32%	8%	32%	9%	2.4%	0.52%	0.13%
22	0	Lille	10	17-15	65%	31%	8%	31%	9%	2.2%	0.49%	0.12%
23	0	Lens	10	14-14	62%	31%	9%	32%	10%	2.9%	0.72%	0.19%
24	0	Como	10	9-9	62%	29%	8%	31%	10%	2.7%	0.63%	0.17%
25	0	Fenerbahce	10	11-12	61%	27%	7%	22%	4.0%	0.65%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
26	0	Club Brugge	10	6-11	55%	24%	6%	27%	8%	2.2%	0.51%	0.13%
27	0	AEK Athens	10	10-17	55%	21%	4.3%	17%	2.8%	0.41%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
28	0	Bodoe Glimt	10	10-18	54%	22%	5%	22%	5%	1.1%	0.20%	< 0.1%
29	0	Viking	8	12-14	40%	12%	2.1%	11%	1.7%	0.24%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
30	0	Galatasaray	8	11-15	38%	13%	2.4%	13%	2.8%	0.52%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
31	0	Slavia Prague	8	11-16	36%	11%	1.8%	11%	1.9%	0.31%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
32	0	Feyenoord	7	9-18	24%	6%	0.94%	6%	0.73%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
33	0	LASK	5	7-16	9%	1.5%	0.12%	0.81%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
34	0	Slovan Bratislava	4	5-12	5%	0.63%	< 0.1%	0.25%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
35	0	Shakhtar Donetsk	2	6-22	0.56%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
36	0	Sabah	2	1-25	0.39%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%

Expected Requirement

	Top 24		Top 16		Top 8
	Pts	GD	Pts	GD	Pts	GD
1%	11	8-9	14	14-12	17	22-10
5%	10	11-9	13	18-13	17	14-8
25%	10	9-12	13	11-10	16	16-9
50%	9	8-7	12	13-8	16	12-11
75%	9	15-19	12	11-10	15	15-9
95%	8	6-8	11	17-15	14	16-9
99%	8	14-21	11	13-14	14	14-11

Important for Top-8
Real Madrid vs Inter Milan (14.7%)	Home Win (48%)	Draw (23%)	Away Win (28%)
Real Madrid	75%	52%	38%
Inter Milan	42%	56%	77%
Porto vs Man City (12.2%)	Home Win (27%)	Draw (23%)	Away Win (50%)
Man City	28%	39%	61%
Porto	44%	24%	15%
Liverpool vs Atletico Madrid (11.2%)	Home Win (54%)	Draw (22%)	Away Win (24%)
Liverpool	65%	42%	30%
Atletico Madrid	10%	17%	34%
Napoli vs Arsenal (9.7%)	Home Win (17%)	Draw (20%)	Away Win (63%)
Arsenal	60%	72%	88%
Napoli	34%	16%	9%
Club Brugge vs Aston Villa (9.3%)	Home Win (27%)	Draw (23%)	Away Win (49%)
Aston Villa	27%	38%	60%
Club Brugge	14%	5%	2.7%
Borussia Dortmund vs Villarreal (9.2%)	Home Win (53%)	Draw (23%)	Away Win (24%)
Borussia Dortmund	35%	17%	10%
Villarreal	5%	10%	23%
Fenerbahce vs Roma (7.3%)	Home Win (30%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (47%)
Roma	6%	11%	25%
Fenerbahce	14%	5%	2.5%
Como vs RB Leipzig (6.7%)	Home Win (44%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (32%)
RB Leipzig	5%	10%	23%
Como	14%	5%	2.6%
Sporting CP vs Galatasaray (6.6%)	Home Win (63%)	Draw (20%)	Away Win (17%)
Sporting CP	41%	21%	13%
Galatasaray	1.0%	2.3%	7%
Bayern Munich vs Bodoe Glimt (6.5%)	Home Win (75%)	Draw (15%)	Away Win (10%)
Bayern Munich	69%	46%	35%
Bodoe Glimt	3.3%	7%	17%
Lille vs Real Betis (6.3%)	Home Win (44%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (32%)
Real Betis	3.3%	6%	17%
Lille	14%	4.9%	2.4%
VfB Stuttgart vs Viking (5.4%)	Home Win (59%)	Draw (21%)	Away Win (20%)
VfB Stuttgart	28%	13%	8%
Viking	0.8%	1.8%	6%

Important for Knockout Stage
Slavia Prague vs Lens (14%)	Home Win (32%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (44%)
Slavia Prague	58%	33%	22%
Lens	45%	58%	78%
Lille vs Real Betis (14%)	Home Win (44%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (32%)
Lille	81%	60%	47%
Real Betis	52%	66%	84%
Fenerbahce vs Roma (12.8%)	Home Win (30%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (47%)
Fenerbahce	82%	61%	48%
Roma	63%	74%	90%
Como vs RB Leipzig (12.8%)	Home Win (44%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (32%)
Como	77%	56%	44%
RB Leipzig	61%	73%	90%
VfB Stuttgart vs Viking (11.4%)	Home Win (59%)	Draw (21%)	Away Win (20%)
Viking	30%	42%	67%
VfB Stuttgart	90%	76%	65%
AEK Athens vs LASK (10.4%)	Home Win (65%)	Draw (19%)	Away Win (16%)
AEK Athens	65%	40%	29%
LASK	5%	10%	26%
Borussia Dortmund vs Villarreal (9.8%)	Home Win (53%)	Draw (23%)	Away Win (24%)
Villarreal	60%	72%	88%
Borussia Dortmund	94%	84%	74%
Sporting CP vs Galatasaray (9.1%)	Home Win (63%)	Draw (20%)	Away Win (17%)
Galatasaray	30%	41%	64%
Sporting CP	96.5%	87%	79%
Club Brugge vs Aston Villa (8%)	Home Win (27%)	Draw (23%)	Away Win (49%)
Club Brugge	75%	55%	43%
Aston Villa	89%	94%	98.2%
Liverpool vs Atletico Madrid (5.7%)	Home Win (54%)	Draw (22%)	Away Win (24%)
Atletico Madrid	71%	80%	92%
Liverpool	98.5%	95%	91%
Porto vs Man City (5.4%)	Home Win (27%)	Draw (23%)	Away Win (50%)
Porto	95.1%	87%	79%
Man City	89%	94%	98.2%

 

PL: Manchester Derby on Sunday

 

Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
9	Arsenal	83.9	+50		99.97%	99.93%	99.83%	99.57%	81%	< 0.1%	0.12%	99.85%
9	Man City	74.0	+32	< 0.1%	98.2%	96.9%	95%	91%	16%	0.76%	3.4%	95%
5	Liverpool	63.4	+18	< 0.1%	78%	70%	60%	47%	1.4%	6%	17%	60%
4	Man United	62.1	+17	< 0.1%	72%	63%	53%	40%	0.97%	7%	19%	54%
1	Aston Villa	61.1	+14	< 0.1%	67%	58%	47%	34%	0.64%	7%	20%	48%
2	Bournemouth	57.0	+10	0.39%	46%	37%	27%	17%	0.19%	9%	15%	44%
6	Chelsea	56.7	+5	0.43%	43%	34%	25%	16%	0.16%	9%	18%	24%
5	Newcastle	55.6	+6	0.60%	38%	29%	21%	13%	0.12%	8%	18%	20%
4	Brighton	55.2	+7	0.69%	36%	28%	19%	12%	0.11%	5%	39%	19%
5	Brentford	54.7	+5	0.79%	34%	25%	18%	11%	< 0.1%	12%	16%	17%
5	Everton	51.9	-1	1.9%	21%	15%	9%	5%	< 0.1%	9%	12%	9%
5	Leeds	51.3	-3	2.3%	19%	13%	8%	4.5%	< 0.1%	6%	11%	8%
2	Forest	50.7	-1	2.8%	17%	12%	7%	4.1%	< 0.1%	5%	11%	7%
3	Crystal Palace	50.2	-6	3.2%	15%	10%	6%	3.4%	< 0.1%	4.9%	8%	17%
0	Fulham	47.3	-5	6%	8%	5%	3.1%	1.6%	< 0.1%	4.2%	7%	3.0%
1	Tottenham	45.0	-12	11%	4.5%	2.7%	1.5%	0.70%	< 0.1%	2.6%	3.8%	1.4%
4	Sunderland	42.7	-16	18%	2.3%	1.3%	0.68%	0.30%	< 0.1%	2.1%	2.0%	5%
3	Ipswich	32.4	-37	77%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%		0.22%	0.15%	< 0.1%
0	Coventry	31.5	-33	80%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%		0.15%	0.20%	< 0.1%
7	Hull	27.0	-50	95%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%		< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%

 

Important matches for title race
Man United vs Man City (1.1%)	Home Win (38%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (38%)
Man City	12%	15%	20%
Arsenal	83%	82%	77%
Man United	1.5%	0.8%	0.5%

 

PL: Perfect start for Arsenal, City, Chelsea, and Hull

 

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
6	Arsenal	83.1	+50		99.94%	99.87%	99.71%	99.33%	79%	< 0.1%	0.20%	99.75%
6	Man City	73.4	+33	< 0.1%	97.5%	95.9%	93%	88%	16%	1.0%	4.3%	93%
3	Man United	62.7	+17	< 0.1%	72%	64%	53%	41%	1.4%	7%	19%	54%
2	Liverpool	62.5	+17	< 0.1%	72%	63%	53%	40%	1.3%	7%	19%	54%
0	Aston Villa	62.5	+16	< 0.1%	71%	63%	52%	39%	1.2%	7%	19%	53%
1	Bournemouth	57.3	+10	0.43%	46%	36%	27%	17%	0.27%	9%	15%	43%
6	Chelsea	57.3	+4	0.41%	44%	35%	25%	16%	0.27%	9%	18%	25%
4	Newcastle	56.1	+6	0.60%	39%	30%	21%	13%	0.18%	8%	17%	20%
3	Brighton	55.9	+8	0.65%	38%	29%	21%	13%	0.17%	5%	39%	20%
4	Brentford	55.6	+6	0.70%	36%	28%	19%	12%	0.16%	12%	17%	19%
4	Everton	52.1	-1	2.1%	21%	14%	9%	5%	< 0.1%	9%	11%	9%
1	Forest	51.4	-0	2.6%	18%	13%	8%	4.6%	< 0.1%	5%	11%	8%
4	Leeds	51.3	-3	2.6%	18%	12%	8%	4.3%	< 0.1%	6%	10%	8%
0	Fulham	48.9	-3	4.9%	11%	7%	4.5%	2.3%	< 0.1%	4.8%	8%	4.3%
0	Crystal Palace	48.4	-7	6%	10%	6%	3.8%	2.0%	< 0.1%	3.9%	6%	15%
0	Tottenham	45.1	-13	12%	4.3%	2.6%	1.4%	0.68%	< 0.1%	2.5%	3.8%	1.4%
3	Sunderland	42.6	-17	19%	2.1%	1.2%	0.63%	0.28%	< 0.1%	2.0%	1.8%	5%
3	Ipswich	33.1	-36	74%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%		0.22%	0.16%	< 0.1%
0	Coventry	31.9	-34	78%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%		0.16%	0.21%	< 0.1%
6	Hull	26.5	-52	95.4%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%		< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%

Titles

Team	League	FA Cup	League Cup	Europe
Arsenal	79%	31%	34%	28%
Man City	16%	14%	13%	9%
Man United	1.4%	8%	6%	4.6%
Liverpool	1.3%	7%	9%	4.7%
Aston Villa	1.2%	8%	6%	5%
Bournemouth	0.27%	4.7%	8%	24%
Chelsea	0.27%	2.8%	2.0%
Newcastle	0.18%	3.1%	1.3%
Brighton	0.17%	3.3%	1.3%	34%
Brentford	0.16%	3.0%	8%
Everton	< 0.1%	1.9%	4.5%
Forest	< 0.1%	2.5%
Leeds	< 0.1%	1.8%	0.72%
Fulham	< 0.1%	2.2%	1.2%
Crystal Palace	< 0.1%	1.9%	1.1%	11%
Tottenham	< 0.1%	1.3%	0.71%
Sunderland	< 0.1%	0.69%	1.1%	4.8%
Ipswich		0.13%	0.19%
Coventry		0.18%	0.13%
Hull		< 0.1%	< 0.1%

Important matches for title race
Arsenal vs Chelsea (1.2%)	Home Win (69%)	Draw (18%)	Away Win (13%)
Arsenal	81%	75%	72%
Man City	14%	18%	21%

 

PL: Hull and Ipswich win match day 1

 

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
3	Arsenal	81.8	+50		99.87%	99.73%	99.44%	98.8%	76%	< 0.1%	0.52%	99.34%
3	Man City	72.1	+30	< 0.1%	96.1%	94%	90%	84%	16%	1.4%	7%	88%
0	Aston Villa	63.6	+16	< 0.1%	75%	67%	57%	44%	2.3%	6%	19%	54%
1	Liverpool	63.3	+18	< 0.1%	74%	66%	56%	44%	2.3%	6%	19%	52%
0	Man United	62.0	+16	< 0.1%	68%	60%	49%	37%	1.6%	6%	20%	47%
0	Bournemouth	58.1	+10	0.41%	49%	39%	29%	20%	0.52%	6%	16%	40%
3	Brighton	57.1	+9	0.55%	43%	34%	25%	16%	0.38%	4.5%	38%	21%
3	Brentford	55.9	+6	0.80%	37%	28%	20%	13%	0.26%	8%	16%	17%
3	Chelsea	55.8	+4	0.84%	36%	27%	19%	12%	0.24%	7%	16%	16%
1	Newcastle	54.5	+4	1.3%	30%	23%	15%	9%	0.15%	6%	15%	13%
3	Everton	52.1	-1	2.5%	20%	14%	9%	5%	< 0.1%	5.0%	10%	7%
3	Leeds	51.8	-3	2.8%	19%	13%	9%	4.9%	< 0.1%	4.8%	10%	7%
0	Forest	51.3	-1	3.1%	18%	12%	8%	4.5%	< 0.1%	6%	10%	6%
0	Fulham	50.3	-2	4.0%	15%	10%	6%	3.5%	< 0.1%	4.3%	9%	5%
0	Crystal Palace	49.4	-5	5%	12%	8%	4.9%	2.7%	< 0.1%	3.9%	7%	14%
0	Tottenham	46.4	-11	10%	6%	3.8%	2.2%	1.1%	< 0.1%	2.1%	4.2%	1.7%
0	Sunderland	40.9	-18	28%	1.3%	0.74%	0.36%	0.16%	< 0.1%	2.6%	1.3%	6%
0	Coventry	33.9	-32	70%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%		1.0%	0.23%	< 0.1%
3	Ipswich	33.6	-35	73%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%		0.41%	0.16%	< 0.1%
3	Hull	24.3	-54	97.5%	< 0.1%					< 0.1%	< 0.1%

 

Premier League 26/27

Here are the results of 1,000,000 simulation of the upcoming premier league season. As usual are the strength of the teams based on previous results and not taking into account transfers occurring over the summer.

Notably, there are almost a seven-point gap between Sunderland and Coventry, and the three promoted teams are relegated in more than 50% of the simulations. 

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
0	Arsenal	80.8	+49		99.8%	99.6%	99.3%	98%	75%	< 0.1%	0.8%	99.1%
0	Man City	70.5	+30		94%	90%	86%	78%	13%	2%	9%	84%
0	Aston Villa	64.7	+20	< 0.1%	79%	71%	62%	49%	4%	5%	18%	59%
0	Man United	64.1	+19	< 0.1%	77%	69%	59%	46%	3%	5%	19%	56%
0	Liverpool	63.6	+18	< 0.1%	75%	66%	56%	44%	3%	6%	20%	52%
0	Bournemouth	59.0	+11	0.4%	53%	43%	32%	22%	0.8%	6%	16%	42%
0	Brighton	55.6	+5	1%	35%	26%	18%	11%	0.3%	5%	41%	15%
0	Newcastle	55.0	+4	1%	32%	24%	16%	10%	0.3%	6%	15%	14%
0	Brentford	54.7	+3	1%	31%	24%	16%	10%	0.3%	7%	15%	13%
0	Chelsea	54.2	+2	1%	28%	21%	14%	8%	0.2%	6%	14%	12%
0	Forest	53.0	+1	2%	23%	17%	11%	7%	< 0.1%	7%	12%	9%
0	Fulham	52.0	-1	3%	19%	13%	8%	5%	< 0.1%	5%	11%	7%
0	Everton	50.7	-3	4%	15%	10%	6%	4%	< 0.1%	4%	9%	5%
0	Crystal Palace	50.7	-3	4%	16%	11%	7%	4%	< 0.1%	4%	8%	15%
0	Leeds	50.0	-5	5%	13%	9%	5%	3%	< 0.1%	4%	7%	4%
0	Tottenham	47.6	-8	8%	8%	5%	3%	1%		2%	5%	2%
0	Sunderland	42.8	-17	22%	2%	1%	0.7%	0.4%		3%	2%	6%
0	Coventry	35.0	-31	68%	0.2%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%		0.9%	0.2%	< 0.1%
0	Ipswich	32.4	-36	80%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%				0.3%	0.2%
0	Hull	22.6	-57	99%						0.1%	< 0.1%

Titles

Team	League	FA Cup	League Cup	Europe
Arsenal	75%	31%	33%	27%
Man City	13%	14%	9%	9%
Aston Villa	4%	8%	6%	7%
Man United	3%	8%	3%	7%
Liverpool	3%	7%	7%	3%
Bournemouth	0.8%	5%	2%	18%
Brighton	0.3%	3%	2%	36%
Newcastle	0.3%	3%	1.0%
Brentford	0.3%	3%	4%
Chelsea	0.2%	3%	2%
Forest	< 0.1%	2%	2%
Fulham	< 0.1%	2%	1%
Everton	< 0.1%	2%	1%
Crystal Palace	< 0.1%	2%	2%	11%
Leeds	< 0.1%	2%	1%
Tottenham		1%	0.3%
Sunderland		0.7%	2%	6%
Coventry		0.2%	0.9%
Ipswich		0.1%	0.4%
Hull		< 0.1%	< 0.1%