PL: City slip at Everton

City came back after 1-3 deficit and scored in the last minute to save an important point in title race. City now win 13% of the simulations; they win 60% if they win remaining matches, 22% if they take 10 points in the last four matches.

Forest won against Chelsea and are thus practically secure from relegation. Mathematically they need four more points to clinch a new contract.

Everton lost two points in the race to Europe and now have 23% chance to reach EL or Conference League. They likely need to take 6 or 7 points to reach that ticket to Europe.

 

Important matches for title race
West Ham vs Arsenal (10.7%)	Home Win (19%)	Draw (21%)	Away Win (60%)
Man City	29%	18%	6%
Arsenal	71%	82%	94%
Man City vs Brentford (7%)	Home Win (64%)	Draw (20%)	Away Win (17%)
Arsenal	82%	95%	97.3%
Man City	18%	5%	2.7%

	Arsenal			Man City
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
85	28%	28%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-
84	28%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
83	52%	24%	95.1%	10%	10%	60%
82	75%	22%	90%	10%	< 1%	-
81	81%	6%	82%	26%	16%	22%
80	92%	11%	66%	43%	17%	14%
79	97.8%	5%	51%	52%	9%	6%
78	98.9%	1.1%	37%	70%	19%	1.8%
77	99.78%	< 1%	22%	82%	12%	< 1%
76	100%	< 1%	13%	88%	6%	< 1%
75	100%	< 1%	-	95.2%	7%	< 1%
74	100%	< 1%	-	98.1%	2.9%	< 1%
73	100%	< 1%	-	99.13%	1.1%	< 1%
72	100%	< 1%	-	99.82%	< 1%	< 1%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is successful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for avoiding relegation
Tottenham vs Leeds (15.5%)	Home Win (46%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (30%)
Tottenham	91%	71%	61%
West Ham	10%	29%	39%
West Ham vs Arsenal (13.7%)	Home Win (19%)	Draw (21%)	Away Win (60%)
West Ham	50%	22%	15%
Tottenham	51%	78%	85%

	West Ham			Tottenham
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
46	< 1%	< 1%	-	4.2%	4.2%	100%
45	1.8%	1.8%	98.9%	4.2%	< 1%	-
44	1.8%	< 1%	-	13%	9%	99.4%
43	7%	4.8%	73%	30%	17%	98.8%
42	18%	12%	64%	36%	6%	94%
41	22%	4.0%	42%	58%	22%	82%
40	42%	19%	23%	77%	19%	77%
39	66%	24%	16%	84%	7%	58%
38	73%	7%	6%	94%	11%	34%
37	89%	16%	< 1%	100%	6%	27%
36	100%	11%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-
35	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is successful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for CL race
Fulham vs Bournemouth (6.6%)	Home Win (43%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (33%)
Bournemouth	4.4%	8%	20%
Fulham	2.5%	< 1%	< 1%
Aston Villa	98.3%	97.5%	93%
Brighton	10%	10%	6%
Burnley vs Aston Villa (4.4%)	Home Win (26%)	Draw (23%)	Away Win (51%)
Aston Villa	91%	96.2%	99.52%
Bournemouth	16%	11%	8%
Brighton	12%	9%	6%
Brentford	6%	4.5%	3.2%

Important matches for EL race (EL or CL)
Fulham vs Bournemouth (23.2%)	Home Win (43%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (33%)
Bournemouth	37%	55%	84%
Fulham	26%	7%	< 1%
Man City vs Brentford (11.3%)	Home Win (64%)	Draw (20%)	Away Win (17%)
Brentford	26%	44%	72%
Bournemouth	60%	55%	46%
Brighton	57%	52%	43%
Brighton vs Wolves (11.1%)	Home Win (68%)	Draw (18%)	Away Win (14%)
Brighton	65%	36%	21%
Brentford	34%	42%	47%
Bournemouth	53%	62%	65%
Crystal Palace vs Everton (8.8%)	Home Win (47%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (30%)
Everton	2.5%	9%	27%

Important matches for Europe race (ECL, EL or CL)
Fulham vs Bournemouth (26.1%)	Home Win (43%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (33%)
Bournemouth	57%	77%	96.4%
Fulham	44%	16%	5%
Crystal Palace vs Everton (13.3%)	Home Win (47%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (30%)
Everton	9%	21%	49%
Brighton vs Wolves (11.6%)	Home Win (68%)	Draw (18%)	Away Win (14%)
Brighton	84%	58%	40%
Brentford	58%	64%	69%
Man City vs Brentford (9.8%)	Home Win (64%)	Draw (20%)	Away Win (17%)
Brentford	50%	68%	91%
Brighton	76%	72%	67%
Liverpool vs Chelsea (5.7%)	Home Win (58%)	Draw (21%)	Away Win (20%)
Chelsea	49%	57%	78%
Brentford	63%	60%	53%
Everton	25%	23%	18%
Brighton	76%	73%	69%

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
76	Arsenal	82.5	+45	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	100%	87%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
71	Man City	78.7	+41	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	100%	13%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
64	Man United	68.8	+16	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	99.88%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
58	Liverpool	63.2	+14	< 1%	>99.99%	99.84%	98.3%	68%	< 1%	< 1%	1.7%	98.3%
58	Aston Villa	62.1	+4	< 1%	99.99%	99.60%	95%	32%	< 1%	< 1%	3.4%	96.5%
52	Bournemouth	55.7	+2	< 1%	61%	36%	3.7%	< 1%	< 1%	18%	46%	10%
50	Brighton	55.0	+8	< 1%	58%	32%	2.0%	< 1%	< 1%	20%	45%	9%
51	Brentford	54.3	+6	< 1%	40%	18%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%	23%	33%	4.2%
48	Fulham	52.6	-4	< 1%	13%	5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	12%	12%	1.1%
48	Everton	52.4	+0	< 1%	11%	3.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	12%	11%	< 1%
48	Chelsea	52.3	+6	< 1%	15%	5.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	10%	46%	< 1%
47	Sunderland	50.0	-11	< 1%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.8%	1.4%	< 1%
45	Newcastle	49.2	-2	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.9%	< 1%	< 1%
43	Crystal Palace	47.1	-9	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	62%	< 1%
43	Leeds	46.9	-5	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
42	Forest	46.2	-2	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	35%
37	Tottenham	41.0	-9	23%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
36	West Ham	39.2	-21	77%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
20	Burnley	22.9	-39	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
18	Wolves	21.0	-40	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Most likely combo of teams in CL

41%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
33%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Forest, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
8%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Bournemouth, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
7%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Brighton, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
3.2%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Brentford, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
1.1%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Fulham, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
1.1%	Arsenal, Bournemouth, Forest, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
1.0%	Arsenal, Bournemouth, Liverpool, Man City, Man United

Most likely combo of teams being relegated

77%	Burnley, West Ham, Wolves
23%	Burnley, Tottenham, Wolves

 

 

PL: Spurs win crucial 3 points at Villa Park

 West Ham are now relegated in 72% of simulations. They need to take 5 points in the last three matches to have >50% chance to survive. If they win all three matches they are still relegated in 0.6% of the simulations. Spurs need to take 2 points to have >50% to survive. If they take 6 points they survive in >99% of the simulations, as further detailed in table below.

Liverpool lost in the big red rivalry and are therefore yet to secure a spot in CL. They clinch CL in 97% of the simulations and another 4 points and they are 100% safe.

Important matches for avoiding relegation
Forest vs Newcastle (2.4%)	Home Win (47%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (29%)
Forest	99.75%	97.2%	93%

	West Ham			Tottenham			Forest
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
46	< 1%	< 1%	-	3.4%	3.4%	100%	28%	14%	100%
45	2.0%	2.0%	99.4%	3.4%	< 1%	-	44%	16%	100%
44	2.0%	< 1%	-	11%	8%	99.6%	53%	9%	99.96%
43	7%	5%	81%	27%	16%	99.1%	72%	18%	99.8%
42	19%	12%	73%	32%	5%	95%	85%	13%	97.8%
41	24%	4.2%	51%	54%	21%	83%	90%	6%	92%
40	43%	20%	28%	74%	21%	78%	97.1%	7%	85%
39	67%	24%	19%	81%	7%	58%	100%	2.9%	66%
38	74%	7%	7%	93%	12%	33%	100%	< 1%	-
37	90%	16%	< 1%	100%	7%	26%	100%	< 1%	-
36	100%	10%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-
35	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is successful, if they finish with X points

 

 

Important matches for CL race
Liverpool vs Chelsea (6.7%)	Home Win (57%)	Draw (22%)	Away Win (21%)
Liverpool	99.96%	97.4%	90%
Chelsea	3.0%	4.0%	14%
Fulham vs Bournemouth (6%)	Home Win (44%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (32%)
Bournemouth	3.7%	7%	19%
Fulham	2.0%	< 1%	< 1%
Aston Villa	98.0%	97.5%	94%

	Liverpool			Aston Villa			Forest			Bournemouth			Brighton			Chelsea			Brentford			Everton
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
67	10%	10%	100%	5%	5%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
66	10%	< 1%	-	5%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
65	26%	16%	100%	16%	10%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
64	49%	23%	100%	35%	20%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
63	56%	7%	100%	41%	6%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
62	76%	20%	100%	63%	22%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
61	89%	13%	99.6%	81%	18%	97.7%	< 1%	< 1%	-	3.7%	3.7%	58%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
60	93%	4.1%	94%	87%	6%	95.3%	< 1%	< 1%	-	3.7%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	2.9%	2.9%	51%	1.7%	1.7%	49%	< 1%	< 1%	-
59	98.1%	4.9%	75%	95.8%	9%	83%	< 1%	< 1%	-	12%	8%	28%	10%	10%	34%	2.9%	< 1%	-	1.7%	< 1%	-	2.2%	2.2%	27%
58	100%	1.9%	40%	100%	4.2%	71%	< 1%	< 1%	-	26%	14%	20%	10%	< 1%	-	10%	7%	19%	6%	4.5%	17%	2.2%	< 1%	-
57	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	32%	6%	11%	26%	16%	13%	22%	12%	13%	19%	12%	9%	8%	6%	8%
56	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	52%	21%	6%	48%	22%	8%	28%	6%	6%	22%	3.8%	5%	17%	9%	3.9%
55	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	72%	20%	2.4%	56%	7%	3.7%	47%	19%	3.1%	42%	20%	1.9%	22%	5%	1.4%
54	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	79%	7%	< 1%	75%	20%	< 1%	63%	16%	< 1%	69%	26%	< 1%	39%	17%	< 1%
53	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	92%	13%	< 1%	89%	14%	< 1%	72%	9%	< 1%	75%	7%	< 1%	55%	16%	< 1%
52	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	100%	8%	< 1%	93%	4.0%	< 1%	86%	14%	< 1%	90%	15%	< 1%	65%	10%	< 1%
51	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	1.0%	1.0%	29%	100%	< 1%	-	98.2%	4.8%	< 1%	93%	8%	< 1%	100%	10%	< 1%	81%	16%	< 1%
50	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	1.0%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	1.8%	< 1%	96.4%	3.0%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-	91%	10%	< 1%
49	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	4.2%	3.1%	30%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	99.13%	2.7%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-	95%	4.0%	< 1%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is successful, if they finish with X points

Most likely combo of teams in CL

44%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
27%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Forest, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
7%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Bournemouth, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
6%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Brighton, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
4.0%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
2.6%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Brentford, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
1.3%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Everton, Liverpool, Man City, Man United

PL: Arsenal with 6p lead

Arsenal with 6p lead with two more matches played. Pressure on Man City with two upcoming matches against Everton and Brentford as detailed below.

In the relegation battle West Ham lost against Brentford. If Spurs draw Villa today, the battle is a fifty-fifty race according to our simulations.

The race to Europe continue to look like a full-on race with half a dozen contenders. 

 

Important matches for title race
Everton vs Man City (10.3%)	Home Win (34%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (42%)
Arsenal	93%	87%	71%
Man City	7%	13%	29%
Man City vs Brentford (7.2%)	Home Win (64%)	Draw (20%)	Away Win (17%)
Arsenal	76%	90%	95%
Man City	24%	10%	5%

	Arsenal			Man City
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
85	26%	26%	98.2%	4.0%	4.0%	85%
84	26%	< 1%	-	4.0%	< 1%	-
83	50%	24%	92%	13%	9%	61%
82	73%	23%	83%	23%	10%	38%
81	79%	7%	74%	30%	7%	24%
80	91%	12%	62%	47%	17%	14%
79	97.4%	6%	46%	60%	13%	5%
78	98.7%	1.3%	34%	70%	10%	2.0%
77	99.73%	1.0%	23%	83%	12%	< 1%
76	100%	< 1%	14%	90%	7%	< 1%
75	100%	< 1%	-	94%	4.5%	< 1%
74	100%	< 1%	-	97.6%	3.5%	< 1%
73	100%	< 1%	-	99.02%	1.4%	< 1%
72	100%	< 1%	-	99.62%	< 1%	< 1%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is successful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for avoiding relegation
Aston Villa vs Tottenham (10.1%)	Home Win (65%)	Draw (19%)	Away Win (16%)
Tottenham	38%	50%	75%
West Ham	63%	51%	28%

	Tottenham			West Ham			Forest
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
46	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	28%	14%	100%
45	< 1%	< 1%	-	2.0%	2.0%	99.9%	44%	15%	100%
44	2.4%	1.8%	99.5%	2.0%	< 1%	-	53%	10%	>99.99%
43	7%	4.8%	99.1%	7%	5%	95%	72%	18%	99.94%
42	9%	2.3%	94%	19%	12%	92%	85%	13%	99.4%
41	21%	11%	83%	24%	4.2%	82%	90%	6%	97.1%
40	36%	15%	78%	43%	20%	66%	97.1%	7%	94%
39	44%	9%	57%	67%	24%	56%	100%	2.9%	82%
38	64%	20%	33%	74%	7%	36%	100%	< 1%	-
37	80%	16%	26%	90%	15%	20%	100%	< 1%	-
36	86%	7%	10%	100%	10%	14%	100%	< 1%	-
35	95.5%	9%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-
34	100%	4.5%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-
33	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is successful, if they finish with X points

 

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
76	Arsenal	82.4	+45	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	100%	82%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
70	Man City	79.1	+41	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	100%	18%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
61	Man United	67.3	+15	< 1%	100%	100%	>99.99%	91%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	>99.99%
58	Aston Villa	64.5	+6	< 1%	>99.99%	99.91%	99.0%	52%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	99.35%
58	Liverpool	64.3	+14	< 1%	99.98%	99.79%	98.5%	58%	< 1%	< 1%	1.4%	98.5%
50	Brighton	55.1	+9	< 1%	54%	31%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	20%	47%	6%
49	Bournemouth	54.5	+0	< 1%	38%	20%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	18%	32%	4.1%
51	Brentford	54.3	+5	< 1%	34%	15%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	23%	30%	2.7%
48	Chelsea	54.2	+9	< 1%	43%	23%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	11%	61%	4.3%
47	Everton	52.7	+0	< 1%	16%	6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	13%	14%	1.2%
48	Fulham	52.6	-4	< 1%	12%	4.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	11%	11%	< 1%
47	Sunderland	50.1	-11	< 1%	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.4%	1.4%	< 1%
45	Newcastle	49.2	-2	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%
43	Crystal Palace	48.2	-7	< 1%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	64%	< 1%
43	Leeds	46.8	-5	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
39	Forest	44.0	-5	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	30%
36	West Ham	39.3	-20	45%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
34	Tottenham	38.5	-12	54%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
20	Burnley	22.9	-39	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
18	Wolves	21.1	-40	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%