PL: Man City and Aston Villa slip in the title race

Arsenal now >90% chance on the title and on average they win the league with more than 10 points. The CL battle is starting to become a three-horse race between Liverpool, Chelsea, and Man United. Next week we have important matches in the race for European competitions where Fulham play Everton and Newcastle play Brentford.

Hot Teams
Man United: 11 points in the last 5 matches, 4.3 more than expected
Bournemouth: 10 points in the last 5 matches, 3.5 more than expected
Forest: 8 points in the last 5 matches, 2.5 more than expected
Brentford: 9 points in the last 5 matches, 2.4 more than expected
Chelsea: 10 points in the last 5 matches, 2.0 more than expected

Cold Teams
Tottenham: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 4.8 less than expected
Crystal Palace: 2 points in the last 5 matches, 3.7 less than expected
Man City: 6 points in the last 5 matches, 3.3 less than expected
Aston Villa: 7 points in the last 5 matches, 2.0 less than expected
Liverpool: 6 points in the last 5 matches, 2.0 less than expected

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
53	Arsenal	82.5	+46	< 1%	100%	>99.99%	>99.99%	99.99%	92%	< 1%	< 1%	>99.99%
47	Man City	71.6	+34	< 1%	99.87%	99.51%	98.2%	94%	5%	< 1%	1.5%	98.3%
46	Aston Villa	70.8	+18	< 1%	99.72%	99.04%	96.5%	90%	2.5%	< 1%	1.9%	97.9%
39	Liverpool	63.8	+15	< 1%	93%	85%	68%	44%	< 1%	3.6%	22%	71%
40	Chelsea	62.8	+20	< 1%	91%	82%	63%	38%	< 1%	4.6%	26%	65%
41	Man United	62.0	+11	< 1%	85%	73%	51%	28%	< 1%	8%	33%	51%
36	Brentford	55.2	+5	< 1%	36%	19%	8%	2.6%	< 1%	16%	29%	8%
33	Newcastle	54.3	+3	< 1%	29%	14%	6%	1.7%	< 1%	16%	24%	8%
34	Fulham	53.0	-2	< 1%	19%	8%	3.0%	< 1%	< 1%	13%	17%	3.0%
34	Everton	52.2	-3	< 1%	15%	7%	2.5%	< 1%	< 1%	11%	12%	2.4%
33	Bournemouth	52.0	-4	< 1%	14%	6%	2.0%	< 1%	< 1%	11%	11%	2.0%
31	Brighton	50.5	+2	< 1%	10%	4.2%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%	8%	10%	1.4%
29	Tottenham	47.5	+0	1.1%	3.3%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	3.7%	2.8%	2.1%
33	Sunderland	47.5	-13	1.4%	2.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.8%	2.5%	< 1%
29	Crystal Palace	46.5	-8	2.3%	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.4%	34%	< 1%
26	Forest	43.7	-14	7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	6%
26	Leeds	43.7	-14	8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.9%	< 1%
20	West Ham	34.5	-27	84%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.1%	< 1%
15	Burnley	30.1	-29	95.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
8	Wolves	20.9	-41	99.96%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Titles

Team	League	FA Cup	League Cup	Europe
Arsenal	92%	37%	55%	30%
Man City	5%	18%	39%	9%
Aston Villa	2.5%	10%		40%
Liverpool	< 1%	11%		9%
Chelsea	< 1%	9%	4.4%	6%
Man United	< 1%
Brentford	< 1%	4.1%
Newcastle		2.8%	1.4%	2.8%
Fulham	< 1%	2.9%
Everton	< 1%
Brighton		1.5%
Tottenham				1.7%
Sunderland		< 1%
Crystal Palace				33%
Forest				6%
Leeds		1.6%
West Ham		1.1%
Burnley		< 1%
Wolves		< 1%

Important matches for title race
Arsenal vs Sunderland (1.2%)	Home Win (83%)	Draw (11%)	Away Win (6%)
Arsenal	93%	88%	84%
Man City	4.5%	8%	10%
Aston Villa	2.2%	4.1%	5%

Important matches for CL race
Man United vs Tottenham (3.2%)	Home Win (54%)	Draw (22%)	Away Win (24%)
Man United	59%	45%	38%
Chelsea	63%	67%	69%
Liverpool	69%	72%	74%
Wolves vs Chelsea (3%)	Home Win (24%)	Draw (22%)	Away Win (54%)
Chelsea	53%	60%	73%
Man United	55%	53%	48%
Liverpool	74%	72%	69%

Important matches for EL race (EL or CL)
Newcastle vs Brentford (5.3%)	Home Win (55%)	Draw (22%)	Away Win (23%)
Brentford	30%	39%	53%
Newcastle	39%	26%	20%
Fulham vs Everton (4.3%)	Home Win (49%)	Draw (23%)	Away Win (27%)
Everton	9%	14%	24%
Fulham	27%	16%	12%

  

Important matches for Europe race (ECL, EL or CL)
Fulham vs Everton (6.1%)	Home Win (49%)	Draw (23%)	Away Win (27%)
Everton	18%	25%	39%
Fulham	42%	28%	21%
Newcastle vs Brentford (6%)	Home Win (55%)	Draw (22%)	Away Win (23%)
Newcastle	56%	41%	33%
Brentford	46%	55%	70%

Important matches for avoiding relegation
Burnley vs West Ham (3.6%)	Home Win (46%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (30%)
West Ham	11%	15%	25%
Burnley	7%	3.1%	1.7%
Leeds	93%	93%	90%
Forest	94%	94%	91%
Leeds vs Forest (2.6%)	Home Win (47%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (30%)
Leeds	95.9%	91%	87%
Forest	90%	93%	97.1%

European Competetions - Last 24 Draw

Below are the updated probabilities as well as the bracket after the the playoff draw.

Champions League

Pos	Pts	Team	Pts	GD	R16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
1	24	Arsenal	24	23-4	100%	83%	59%	43%	27%
2	21	Bayern	21	22-8	100%	76%	47%	30%	16%
3	18	Liverpool	18	20-8	100%	71%	40%	17%	8%
4	17	Tottenham	17	17-7	100%	52%	18%	4.5%	1.5%
5	16	Barcelona	16	22-14	100%	59%	36%	16%	8%
6	16	Chelsea	16	17-10	100%	51%	27%	9%	3.7%
7	16	Sporting	16	17-11	100%	42%	11%	4.2%	1.4%
8	16	Man City	16	15-9	100%	68%	35%	23%	13%
9	15	Real Madrid	15	21-12	68%	33%	12%	6%	2.7%
10	15	Inter	15	15-7	87%	44%	17%	9%	4.2%
11	14	Paris SG	14	21-11	86%	49%	33%	16%	8%
12	14	Newcastle	14	17-7	91%	37%	18%	6%	2.1%
13	13	Juventus	13	14-10	66%	25%	8%	2.0%	< 1%
14	13	Atletico	13	17-15	75%	36%	17%	6%	2.2%
15	13	Atalanta	13	10-10	40%	7%	2.2%	< 1%	< 1%
16	12	Leverkusen	12	13-14	78%	19%	7%	3.3%	1.2%
17	11	Dortmund	11	19-17	60%	15%	6%	2.6%	< 1%
18	11	Olympiakos	11	10-14	22%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
19	10	Brugge	10	15-17	25%	6%	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%
20	10	Galatasaray	10	9-11	34%	9%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%
21	10	Monaco	10	8-14	14%	2.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
22	10	Karabakh Agdam	10	13-21	9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
23	9	Bodoe Glimt	9	14-15	13%	1.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
24	9	Benfica	9	10-12	32%	11%	2.5%	< 1%	< 1%

Last 16		Quarter-finals		Semi-finals		Final		Champions
Paris SG (86%)
		Paris SG (49%) Barcelona (26%) Chelsea (22%)
Chelsea (50%) Barcelona (50%)
				Paris SG (33%) Liverpool (20%) Barcelona (16%) Chelsea (12%)
Juventus (66%) Galatasaray (34%)
		Liverpool (38%) Tottenham (28%) Juventus (25%)
Tottenham (50%) Liverpool (50%)
						Arsenal (21%) Paris SG (16%) Bayern (15%) Man City (11%) Liverpool (9%)
Real Madrid (68%) Benfica (32%)
		Man City (35%) Real Madrid (33%) Sporting (22%)
Sporting (50%) Man City (50%)
				Arsenal (30%) Bayern (24%) Man City (18%) Real Madrid (12%)
Dortmund (60%) Atalanta (40%)
		Arsenal (41%) Bayern (38%) Dortmund (15%)
Arsenal (50%) Bayern (50%)
								Arsenal (27%) Bayern (16%) Man City (13%) Liverpool (8%)
Newcastle (91%)
		Newcastle (37%) Barcelona (33%) Chelsea (29%)
Barcelona (50%) Chelsea (50%)
				Barcelona (20%) Liverpool (20%) Newcastle (18%) Atletico (17%) Chelsea (15%)
Atletico (75%) Brugge (25%)
		Atletico (36%) Liverpool (34%) Tottenham (24%)
Liverpool (50%) Tottenham (50%)
						Arsenal (22%) Bayern (16%) Man City (11%) Inter (9%) Barcelona (9%)
Inter (87%)
		Inter (44%) Man City (34%) Sporting (20%)
Man City (50%) Sporting (50%)
				Arsenal (29%) Bayern (23%) Inter (17%) Man City (17%)
Leverkusen (78%) Olympiakos (22%)
		Arsenal (41%) Bayern (38%) Leverkusen (19%)
Bayern (50%) Arsenal (50%)

Europa League

Pos	Pts	Team	Pts	GD	R16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
1	21	Lyon	21	18-5	100%	59%	30%	16%	6%
2	21	Aston Villa	21	14-6	100%	83%	64%	50%	35%
3	19	Midtjylland	19	18-8	100%	56%	26%	8%	2.8%
4	17	Betis	17	13-7	100%	68%	40%	17%	8%
5	17	Porto	17	13-7	100%	74%	44%	20%	9%
6	17	Braga	17	11-5	100%	62%	28%	9%	3.0%
7	17	Freiburg	17	10-4	100%	64%	24%	12%	4.8%
8	16	Roma	16	13-6	100%	75%	37%	24%	12%
9	16	Genk	16	11-7	59%	13%	2.5%	< 1%	< 1%
10	15	Bologna	15	14-7	83%	39%	15%	8%	3.5%
11	15	Stuttgart	15	15-9	79%	41%	21%	8%	3.5%
12	15	Ferencvaros	15	12-11	64%	13%	3.6%	< 1%	< 1%
13	14	Forest	14	15-7	61%	34%	19%	8%	3.8%
14	14	Viktoria Plzen	14	8-3	56%	14%	4.6%	< 1%	< 1%
15	14	Crvena Zvezda	14	7-6	22%	3.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
16	13	Dinamo Zagreb	13	15-13	41%	6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
17	12	PAOK	12	17-14	35%	7%	2.1%	< 1%	< 1%
18	12	Lille	12	12-9	78%	30%	15%	8%	3.7%
19	12	Fenerbahce	12	10-7	39%	18%	8%	2.8%	1.1%
20	12	Panathinaikos	12	11-9	44%	10%	2.8%	< 1%	< 1%
21	11	Celtic	11	13-15	21%	5%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%
22	10	Celta	10	12-14	65%	19%	8%	4.0%	1.4%
23	10	Razgrad	10	12-15	36%	4.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
24	9	Brann	9	9-11	17%	2.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Last 16		Quarter-finals		Semi-finals		Final		Champions
Ferencvaros (64%) Razgrad (36%)
		Porto (43%) Braga (38%) Ferencvaros (13%)
Braga (50%) Porto (50%)
				Porto (27%) Betis (25%) Braga (19%) Midtjylland (17%)
Viktoria Plzen (56%) Panathinaikos (44%)
		Betis (41%) Midtjylland (35%) Viktoria Plzen (14%)
Midtjylland (50%) Betis (50%)
						Aston Villa (27%) Roma (14%) Porto (12%) Betis (11%)
Genk (59%) Dinamo Zagreb (41%)
		Roma (43%) Freiburg (38%) Genk (13%)
Roma (50%) Freiburg (50%)
				Aston Villa (34%) Roma (21%) Lyon (17%) Freiburg (14%)
Celta (65%) PAOK (35%)
		Aston Villa (43%) Lyon (32%) Celta (19%)
Lyon (50%) Aston Villa (50%)
								Aston Villa (35%) Roma (12%) Porto (9%) Betis (8%)
Stuttgart (79%) Celtic (21%)
		Stuttgart (41%) Porto (31%) Braga (23%)
Porto (50%) Braga (50%)
				Stuttgart (21%) Forest (19%) Porto (17%) Betis (15%) Braga (9%)
Forest (61%) Fenerbahce (39%)
		Forest (34%) Betis (27%) Midtjylland (20%) Fenerbahce (18%)
Betis (50%) Midtjylland (50%)
						Aston Villa (23%) Roma (10%) Lille (8%) Forest (8%)
Bologna (83%) Brann (17%)
		Bologna (39%) Roma (33%) Freiburg (26%)
Freiburg (50%) Roma (50%)
				Aston Villa (30%) Roma (16%) Lille (15%) Bologna (15%)
Lille (78%) Crvena Zvezda (22%)
		Aston Villa (40%) Lille (30%) Lyon (27%)
Aston Villa (50%) Lyon (50%)

Conference League

Pos	Pts	Team	Pts	GD	R16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
1	16	Strasbourg	16	11-5	100%	75%	44%	31%	17%
2	14	Rakow	14	9-2	100%	54%	21%	10%	3.3%
3	13	AEK	13	14-7	100%	71%	41%	17%	7%
4	13	Sparta Praha	13	10-3	100%	67%	36%	13%	4.8%
5	13	Rayo Vallecano	13	13-7	100%	79%	48%	21%	10%
6	13	Shakhtar	13	10-5	100%	67%	31%	10%	3.3%
7	13	Mainz	13	7-3	100%	56%	32%	20%	9%
8	12	Larnaca	12	7-1	100%	39%	14%	5%	1.5%
9	11	Lausanne	11	6-3	60%	16%	4.1%	1.2%	< 1%
10	10	Crystal Palace	10	11-6	98.1%	80%	60%	50%	36%
11	10	Lech	10	12-8	80%	29%	11%	1.9%	< 1%
12	10	Samsunspor	10	10-6	80%	22%	7%	1.8%	< 1%
13	10	Celje	10	8-7	79%	20%	7%	1.7%	< 1%
14	10	Alkmaar	10	7-7	86%	38%	19%	4.5%	2.0%
15	9	Fiorentina	9	8-5	73%	38%	12%	8%	4.0%
16	9	Rijeka	9	5-2	37%	7%	2.1%	< 1%	< 1%
17	9	Jagiellonia	9	5-4	27%	9%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%
18	8	Omonia	8	5-4	63%	18%	7%	2.8%	< 1%
19	8	Noah	8	6-7	14%	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
20	8	Drita	8	4-8	21%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
21	7	Kuopio	7	6-5	20%	2.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
22	7	Shkendija	7	4-5	20%	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
23	7	Zrinjski Mostar	7	8-10	1.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
24	7	Sigma Olomouc	7	7-9	40%	8%	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%

Last 16		Quarter-finals		Semi-finals		Final		Champions
Lech (80%) Kuopio (20%)
		Rayo Vallecano (38%) Shakhtar (31%) Lech (29%)
Shakhtar (50%) Rayo Vallecano (50%)
				Rayo Vallecano (22%) Alkmaar (19%) AEK (18%) Sparta Praha (15%) Shakhtar (14%)
Alkmaar (86%)
		Alkmaar (38%) AEK (31%) Sparta Praha (29%)
AEK (50%) Sparta Praha (50%)
						Crystal Palace (50%) Strasbourg (9%) Fiorentina (8%)
Crystal Palace (98%)
		Crystal Palace (80%) Mainz (14%)
Mainz (50%) Larnaca (50%)
				Crystal Palace (60%) Strasbourg (13%) Fiorentina (12%)
Fiorentina (73%) Jagiellonia (27%)
		Fiorentina (38%) Strasbourg (33%) Rakow (21%)
Strasbourg (50%) Rakow (50%)
								Crystal Palace (36%) Strasbourg (17%) Rayo Vallecano (10%) Mainz (9%)
Samsunspor (80%) Shkendija (20%)
		Rayo Vallecano (41%) Shakhtar (36%) Samsunspor (22%)
Rayo Vallecano (50%) Shakhtar (50%)
				Rayo Vallecano (25%) AEK (23%) Sparta Praha (20%) Shakhtar (17%)
Celje (79%) Drita (21%)
		AEK (40%) Sparta Praha (38%) Celje (20%)
Sparta Praha (50%) AEK (50%)
						Strasbourg (22%) Mainz (16%) Rayo Vallecano (14%) AEK (12%) Sparta Praha (9%)
Lausanne (60%) Sigma Olomouc (40%)
		Mainz (42%) Larnaca (33%) Lausanne (16%)
Larnaca (50%) Mainz (50%)
				Strasbourg (31%) Mainz (25%) Rakow (17%) Larnaca (12%)
Omonia (63%) Rijeka (37%)
		Strasbourg (42%) Rakow (33%) Omonia (18%)
Rakow (50%) Strasbourg (50%)

Which countries get extra CL spots

		Score
Country	Probability	Average	Min	Max
ENG	99.37%	20.2	14.11	25.5
GER	29%	15.28	10	22.07
ITA	25%	15.13	9.86	23.79
POR	21%	14.95	11.3	23.1
POL	19%	14.96	12	22.25
ESP	6%	13.66	8.75	20.06
GRE	< 1%	12.04	9.2	19.7
CYP	< 1%	11.43	9.63	16.63
FRA	< 1%	11.68	8.69	16.19
TUR	< 1%	8.74	6.2	16.4
CZE	< 1%	9.75	7.3	15.8

Number of semifinalists from GER; 218 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4
Probability	17%	41%	31%	10%	1.3%
Chance if	2.2%	14%	43%	78%	97%

Number of quarterfinalists from ITA; 207 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4	5
Probability	1.2%	21%	39%	28%	9%	1.3%
Chance if	< 1%	1.9%	13%	41%	74%	94%

Number of quarterfinalists from POR; 203 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4
Probability	3.9%	27%	46%	23%	< 1%
Chance if	< 1%	1.0%	17%	57%	91%

Number of quarterfinalists from GER; 184 mbit

n	1	2	3	4	5
Probability	9%	32%	39%	18%	2.0%
Chance if	< 1%	9%	32%	64%	87%

Number of semifinalists from POR; 178 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	34%	48%	16%	1.5%
Chance if	3.2%	19%	60%	95%

Number of quarterfinalists from POL; 168 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	28%	53%	18%	< 1%
Chance if	< 1%	15%	54%	91%

Number of semifinalists from ITA; 163 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	33%	45%	18%	3.2%
Chance if	6%	22%	56%	88%

Number of teams in last-16 stage from ITA; 152 mbit

n	2	3	4	5	6
Probability	2.1%	13%	33%	38%	14%
Chance if	< 1%	1.7%	11%	33%	63%

Number of semifinalists from POL; 146 mbit

n	0	1	2
Probability	69%	29%	2.6%
Chance if	7%	40%	88%

Number of finalists from GER; 135 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	41%	43%	14%	1.9%
Chance if	11%	31%	63%	91%