PL: 6-point matches in CL race

Man City dropped two points and technically no longer has the title race in their own hands, but if they win all their matches, they win the title in 92% of simulations. Next weekend there are United play Villa at home and Chelsea play Newcastle, two important matches in the CL race. In the relegation race four teams are fighting over three new contracts, while Wolves and Burnley are unlikely to escape the hole they've found themselves in.

Hot Teams
Wolves: 8 points in the last 5 matches, 4.2 more than expected
Man City: 13 points in the last 5 matches, 3.6 more than expected
West Ham: 8 points in the last 5 matches, 2.7 more than expected
Man United: 10 points in the last 5 matches, 2.2 more than expected
Crystal Palace: 9 points in the last 5 matches, 2.1 more than expected

Cold Teams
Tottenham: 0 points in the last 5 matches, 6.0 less than expected
Aston Villa: 5 points in the last 5 matches, 4.1 less than expected
Forest: 2 points in the last 5 matches, 3.7 less than expected
Newcastle: 6 points in the last 5 matches, 1.4 less than expected
Fulham: 6 points in the last 5 matches, 1.4 less than expected

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
67	Arsenal	84.2	+48	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	100%	94%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
60	Man City	75.9	+37	< 1%	100%	>99.99%	99.97%	99.79%	6%	< 1%	< 1%	99.97%
51	Aston Villa	66.1	+9	< 1%	99.14%	96.0%	84%	64%	< 1%	< 1%	9%	90%
51	Man United	64.9	+13	< 1%	98.1%	92%	76%	54%	< 1%	2.0%	22%	76%
48	Liverpool	63.8	+14	< 1%	96.6%	89%	67%	43%	< 1%	2.5%	26%	71%
48	Chelsea	62.8	+23	< 1%	95.3%	86%	61%	35%	< 1%	3.5%	32%	62%
44	Brentford	57.3	+6	< 1%	59%	24%	9%	3.0%	< 1%	20%	48%	9%
43	Everton	53.7	-2	< 1%	18%	6%	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%	19%	16%	1.6%
39	Newcastle	52.3	+0	< 1%	11%	2.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	15%	15%	3.4%
40	Bournemouth	51.9	-3	< 1%	9%	1.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	13%	8%	< 1%
40	Fulham	51.2	-5	< 1%	6%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	10%	10%	< 1%
37	Brighton	49.9	+3	< 1%	4.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	8%	4.2%	< 1%
40	Sunderland	48.9	-10	< 1%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	3.9%	2.4%	< 1%
38	Crystal Palace	48.6	-6	< 1%	1.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.5%	39%	< 1%
31	Leeds	43.0	-12	7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	3.3%	< 1%
29	Tottenham	40.8	-8	15%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.2%
28	Forest	39.6	-16	26%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	7%
28	West Ham	37.7	-24	53%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.2%	< 1%
19	Burnley	27.8	-32	99.25%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
16	Wolves	24.0	-35	99.95%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Titles

Team	League	FA Cup	League Cup	Europe
Arsenal	94%	44%	59%	35%
Man City	6%	12%	41%	10%
Aston Villa	< 1%			35%
Man United	< 1%
Liverpool	< 1%	14%		11%
Chelsea	< 1%	12%		4.2%
Brentford		3.4%
Newcastle		5%		2.9%
Fulham		4.1%
Sunderland		< 1%
Crystal Palace				38%
Leeds		3.3%
Tottenham				1.2%
Forest				7%
West Ham		1.2%
Wolves		< 1%

Important matches for title race
Arsenal vs Everton (2%)	Home Win (74%)	Draw (15%)	Away Win (10%)
Arsenal	95.4%	90%	86%
Man City	4.6%	10%	14%
West Ham vs Man City (2%)	Home Win (24%)	Draw (23%)	Away Win (53%)
Man City	2.6%	4.2%	9%
Arsenal	97.3%	95.8%	91%

	Arsenal			Man City
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
91	2.8%	2.8%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-
90	2.8%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
89	10%	7%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-
88	17%	7%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-
87	23%	7%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	92%
86	37%	14%	99.8%	< 1%	< 1%	-
85	48%	11%	99.4%	1.1%	< 1%	71%
84	59%	11%	98.5%	2.1%	1.1%	56%
83	71%	12%	96.4%	3.7%	1.6%	46%
82	79%	8%	93%	8%	3.8%	30%
81	87%	7%	89%	11%	4.0%	21%
80	92%	5%	81%	17%	6%	13%
79	95.2%	3.2%	73%	26%	8%	7%
78	97.4%	2.2%	63%	34%	8%	4.3%
77	98.7%	1.3%	51%	44%	10%	2.1%
76	99.37%	< 1%	40%	55%	11%	1.0%
75	99.73%	< 1%	28%	64%	9%	< 1%
74	99.89%	< 1%	20%	73%	9%	< 1%
73	99.96%	< 1%	14%	81%	8%	< 1%
72	99.99%	< 1%	6%	87%	6%	< 1%
71	>99.99%	< 1%	-	92%	4.8%	< 1%
70	>99.99%	< 1%	-	95%	3.3%	< 1%
69	100%	< 1%	-	97.1%	2.1%	< 1%
68	100%	< 1%	-	98.5%	1.4%	< 1%
67	100%	< 1%	-	99.26%	< 1%	< 1%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for CL race
Man United vs Aston Villa (6.5%)	Home Win (44%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (32%)
Man United	86%	73%	63%
Aston Villa	85%	90%	96.2%
Chelsea vs Newcastle (4.5%)	Home Win (54%)	Draw (22%)	Away Win (23%)
Chelsea	72%	56%	47%
Liverpool	68%	73%	75%
Man United	73%	78%	80%

Important matches for avoiding relegation
West Ham vs Man City (5.7%)	Home Win (24%)	Draw (23%)	Away Win (53%)
West Ham	65%	47%	38%
Forest	65%	73%	78%
Tottenham	80%	85%	88%
Leeds	90%	93%	95%
Forest vs Fulham (4.8%)	Home Win (46%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (30%)
Forest	83%	70%	62%
West Ham	41%	49%	54%
Tottenham	83%	86%	88%

	West Ham			Forest			Tottenham			Leeds
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
49	< 1%	< 1%	100%	1.1%	< 1%	100%	2.0%	< 1%	100%	8%	2.8%	100%
48	< 1%	< 1%	100%	1.9%	< 1%	100%	4.2%	2.1%	100%	12%	4.3%	100%
47	1.0%	< 1%	100%	3.8%	1.9%	100%	7%	2.6%	100%	18%	7%	100%
46	1.9%	< 1%	99.9%	6%	2.4%	100%	11%	3.9%	100%	25%	7%	100%
45	3.3%	1.4%	99.9%	10%	3.7%	99.99%	17%	6%	>99.99%	34%	9%	>99.99%
44	6%	2.8%	99.6%	16%	6%	99.9%	24%	7%	99.98%	45%	10%	99.97%
43	10%	3.4%	98.2%	22%	6%	99.5%	32%	9%	99.8%	55%	10%	99.8%
42	15%	5%	95%	30%	8%	98.4%	43%	10%	99.2%	65%	10%	99.2%
41	22%	7%	88%	40%	10%	95.2%	53%	10%	97.6%	75%	10%	97.2%
40	30%	8%	78%	50%	10%	90%	63%	10%	94%	82%	8%	93%
39	40%	10%	65%	60%	10%	81%	73%	10%	87%	88%	6%	86%
38	51%	11%	50%	70%	10%	70%	81%	8%	78%	93%	4.8%	75%
37	61%	10%	36%	78%	8%	56%	87%	7%	65%	96.2%	2.9%	60%
36	71%	10%	23%	86%	7%	42%	92%	5%	50%	98.1%	2.0%	45%
35	81%	9%	14%	91%	6%	29%	95.6%	3.2%	36%	99.22%	1.1%	29%
34	88%	7%	7%	95%	3.6%	18%	97.8%	2.2%	24%	99.69%	< 1%	16%
33	93%	5%	3.5%	97.3%	2.5%	10%	99.03%	1.3%	13%	99.90%	< 1%	7%
32	96.6%	3.7%	1.3%	98.8%	1.5%	6%	99.60%	< 1%	7%	99.98%	< 1%	3%
31	98.4%	1.9%	< 1%	99.51%	< 1%	2%	99.87%	< 1%	2%	100%	< 1%	< 1%
30	99.40%	< 1%	< 1%	99.84%	< 1%	< 1%	99.98%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-
29	99.89%	< 1%	< 1%	99.97%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

 

 

PL: Key matches in race for Europe

Big games coming up in the midweek for the Europe race with  Bournemouth vs Brentford and Chelsea vs Aston Villa in the CL race.

Hot Teams
Man United: 13 points in the last 5 matches, 4.3 more than expected
Man City: 13 points in the last 5 matches, 4.3 more than expected
Brentford: 10 points in the last 5 matches, 4.0 more than expected
Liverpool: 12 points in the last 5 matches, 2.6 more than expected
Bournemouth: 9 points in the last 5 matches, 1.3 more than expected

Cold Teams
Forest: 2 points in the last 5 matches, 4.8 less than expected
Tottenham: 1 point in the last 5 matches, 4.4 less than expected
Aston Villa: 5 points in the last 5 matches, 4.3 less than expected
Newcastle: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 3.5 less than expected
Burnley: 4 points in the last 5 matches, 1.2 less than expected

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
64	Arsenal	83.0	+47	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	>99.99%	85%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
59	Man City	77.2	+39	< 1%	>99.99%	>99.99%	99.98%	99.79%	15%	< 1%	< 1%	99.98%
51	Aston Villa	67.9	+13	< 1%	99.57%	97.8%	91%	72%	< 1%	< 1%	6%	94%
51	Man United	66.1	+14	< 1%	98.6%	94%	82%	56%	< 1%	1.5%	16%	82%
48	Liverpool	65.7	+16	< 1%	98.4%	94%	81%	55%	< 1%	1.3%	15%	83%
45	Chelsea	60.8	+19	< 1%	87%	70%	35%	15%	< 1%	7%	49%	38%
43	Brentford	57.3	+6	< 1%	57%	26%	9%	2.5%	< 1%	20%	47%	9%
40	Fulham	53.1	-4	< 1%	15%	4.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	16%	17%	< 1%
40	Everton	52.8	-3	< 1%	14%	4.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	15%	12%	< 1%
39	Bournemouth	52.6	-3	< 1%	14%	4.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	15%	12%	< 1%
36	Newcastle	51.0	-0	< 1%	7%	2.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	10%	11%	3.2%
37	Brighton	50.8	+3	< 1%	8%	2.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	10%	7%	< 1%
37	Sunderland	46.7	-12	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.6%	1.3%	< 1%
35	Crystal Palace	46.7	-9	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.1%	39%	< 1%
31	Leeds	45.0	-10	1.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	3.6%	< 1%
29	Tottenham	42.5	-6	5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.2%
27	Forest	39.1	-18	23%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	7%
25	West Ham	35.6	-25	71%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.3%	< 1%
19	Burnley	28.6	-31	98.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
13	Wolves	21.9	-37	99.97%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Titles

Team	League	FA Cup	League Cup	Europe
Arsenal	85%	44%	59%	35%
Man City	15%	12%	41%	10%
Aston Villa	< 1%			35%
Man United	< 1%
Liverpool	< 1%	14%		11%
Chelsea		12%		4.2%
Brentford		3.4%
Fulham		4.1%
Newcastle		5%		2.9%
Sunderland		< 1%
Crystal Palace				38%
Leeds		3.3%
Tottenham				1.2%
Forest				7%
West Ham		1.2%
Wolves		< 1%

Important matches for title race
Brighton vs Arsenal (3.5%)	Home Win (26%)	Draw (23%)	Away Win (51%)
Arsenal	77%	82%	90%
Man City	23%	18%	10%
Man City vs Forest (2.3%)	Home Win (70%)	Draw (17%)	Away Win (13%)
Man City	18%	10%	7%
Arsenal	82%	90%	93%

	Arsenal			Man City
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
89	6%	4.1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
88	10%	4.4%	99.9%	< 1%	< 1%	-
87	15%	5%	99.95%	< 1%	< 1%	95%
86	25%	11%	99.0%	1.6%	< 1%	86%
85	34%	9%	98.1%	2.8%	1.2%	80%
84	45%	11%	96.6%	6%	3.0%	68%
83	57%	12%	92%	9%	3.2%	55%
82	67%	10%	88%	14%	5%	43%
81	76%	9%	81%	21%	7%	31%
80	84%	8%	72%	28%	7%	21%
79	89%	5%	63%	38%	9%	14%
78	93%	4.2%	53%	48%	10%	9%
77	96.2%	2.8%	40%	57%	9%	5.0%
76	97.8%	1.7%	32%	66%	10%	2.7%
75	98.9%	1.1%	22%	75%	8%	1.3%
74	99.48%	< 1%	14%	82%	7%	< 1%
73	99.76%	< 1%	9%	87%	6%	< 1%
72	99.90%	< 1%	5%	92%	4.4%	< 1%
71	99.96%	< 1%	2%	95%	3.1%	< 1%
70	99.99%	< 1%	< 1%	97.0%	2.2%	< 1%
69	>99.99%	< 1%	< 1%	98.3%	1.3%	< 1%
68	>99.99%	< 1%	-	99.14%	< 1%	< 1%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for CL race
Aston Villa vs Chelsea (6.5%)	Home Win (50%)	Draw (23%)	Away Win (27%)
Chelsea	29%	38%	55%
Aston Villa	97.6%	93%	87%
Wolves vs Liverpool (2.7%)	Home Win (21%)	Draw (21%)	Away Win (58%)
Liverpool	73%	79%	88%
Chelsea	42%	40%	35%
Brentford	11%	9%	8%

Important matches for EL race (EL or CL)
Bournemouth vs Brentford (7.3%)	Home Win (49%)	Draw (23%)	Away Win (28%)
Brentford	45%	57%	72%
Bournemouth	19%	9%	4.4%
Aston Villa vs Chelsea (2%)	Home Win (50%)	Draw (23%)	Away Win (27%)
Chelsea	83%	88%	94%
Aston Villa	99.89%	99.5%	98.9%

Important matches for Europe race (ECL, EL or CL)
Bournemouth vs Brentford (7.7%)	Home Win (49%)	Draw (23%)	Away Win (28%)
Bournemouth	38%	22%	15%
Brentford	66%	77%	88%
Everton vs Burnley (3.3%)	Home Win (61%)	Draw (20%)	Away Win (18%)
Everton	34%	20%	14%

Important matches for avoiding relegation
Fulham vs West Ham (4.9%)	Home Win (56%)	Draw (22%)	Away Win (22%)
West Ham	23%	30%	46%
Forest	81%	76%	67%
Tottenham	96.0%	95%	92%
Man City vs Forest (2.1%)	Home Win (70%)	Draw (17%)	Away Win (13%)
Forest	74%	81%	90%
West Ham	32%	27%	20%

	Burnley			West Ham			Forest			Tottenham			Leeds
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
50	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	4.1%	1.6%	100%	14%	4.9%	100%
49	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	100%	1.0%	< 1%	100%	7%	2.7%	100%	19%	6%	100%
48	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	100%	1.8%	< 1%	100%	11%	4.3%	100%	27%	8%	100%
47	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	100%	3.2%	1.4%	100%	16%	5.0%	100%	36%	9%	100%
46	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	100%	6%	2.5%	>99.99%	23%	7%	100%	45%	9%	100%
45	< 1%	< 1%	-	1.2%	< 1%	99.9%	9%	3.1%	99.98%	31%	8%	>99.99%	55%	10%	>99.99%
44	< 1%	< 1%	-	2.4%	1.1%	99.3%	13%	4.7%	99.9%	40%	9%	99.99%	65%	10%	99.98%
43	< 1%	< 1%	97%	3.9%	1.6%	98%	20%	6%	99.6%	50%	10%	99.94%	73%	9%	99.92%
42	< 1%	< 1%	97%	6%	2.5%	93%	27%	7%	98.8%	60%	10%	99.7%	81%	8%	99.6%
41	< 1%	< 1%	87%	10%	3.9%	85%	36%	9%	96.9%	69%	9%	99.0%	87%	6%	98.5%
40	< 1%	< 1%	78%	15%	4.8%	74%	45%	10%	93%	77%	8%	97.1%	92%	4.6%	96.3%
39	< 1%	< 1%	63%	22%	7%	61%	55%	10%	87%	84%	7%	93%	95.2%	3.4%	92%
38	1.2%	< 1%	47%	30%	8%	47%	65%	10%	79%	90%	5%	88%	97.4%	2.2%	84%
37	2.2%	< 1%	31%	39%	9%	34%	74%	9%	69%	94%	4.1%	79%	98.7%	1.3%	73%
36	3.7%	1.6%	19%	49%	10%	23%	82%	7%	58%	96.5%	2.8%	68%	99.41%	< 1%	61%
35	6%	2.6%	11%	60%	11%	15%	88%	6%	46%	98.1%	1.7%	56%	99.77%	< 1%	45%
34	10%	3.4%	5%	69%	9%	8%	93%	4.8%	34%	99.11%	1.0%	41%	99.92%	< 1%	28%
33	15%	5.0%	2.2%	78%	9%	4.4%	95.8%	3.1%	24%	99.64%	< 1%	28%	99.98%	< 1%	21%
32	22%	7%	< 1%	86%	8%	2.1%	97.9%	2.1%	15%	99.87%	< 1%	19%	>99.99%	< 1%	11%
31	29%	8%	< 1%	91%	5%	< 1%	99.09%	1.2%	8%	99.96%	< 1%	12%	100%	< 1%	-
30	39%	9%	< 1%	95.1%	4.0%	< 1%	99.64%	< 1%	3%	>99.99%	< 1%	8%	100%	< 1%	-
29	49%	11%	< 1%	97.7%	2.6%	< 1%	99.89%	< 1%	2%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-
28	59%	10%	< 1%	99.0%	1.3%	< 1%	99.98%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-
27	70%	10%	< 1%	99.65%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-
26	79%	9%	< 1%	99.94%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-
25	86%	7%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points



Simulated points for winner: 81 - 86
Simulated points for 17th team: 37 - 40

Coming Matches

Home		Draw		Away
Bournemouth	49%	23%	28%	Brentford
Everton	61%	20%	18%	Burnley
Leeds	60%	21%	19%	Sunderland
Wolves	21%	21%	58%	Liverpool
Aston Villa	50%	23%	27%	Chelsea
Brighton	26%	23%	51%	Arsenal
Fulham	56%	22%	22%	West Ham
Man City	70%	17%	13%	Forest
Newcastle	48%	23%	29%	Man United
Tottenham	50%	23%	27%	Crystal Palace

Most likely combo of teams in CL

47%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
11%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City
11%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Chelsea, Man City, Man United
6%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
3.9%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
3.7%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Forest, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
2.6%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Brentford, Liverpool, Man City
2.3%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Brentford, Man City, Man United
1.5%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Man United, Newcastle

Most likely combo of teams being relegated

69%	Burnley, West Ham, Wolves
21%	Burnley, Forest, Wolves
5%	Burnley, Tottenham, Wolves
1.8%	Burnley, Leeds, Wolves
1.6%	Forest, West Ham, Wolves