Premier League - Matchweek 6

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
18	Man City	86.5	+51		>99.99%	99.99%	99.96%	99.86%	58%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	99.94%
15	Arsenal	84.5	+45		>99.99%	99.98%	99.93%	99.74%	41%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	99.89%
9	Liverpool	66.6	+21	< 0.1%	91%	85%	76%	62%	0.49%	4.4%	16%	74%
13	Brighton	64.4	+24	< 0.1%	85%	77%	66%	51%	0.30%	6%	19%	64%
10	Chelsea	60.4	+12	< 0.1%	67%	56%	42%	27%	< 0.1%	10%	25%	39%
10	Brentford	57.1	+11	0.11%	50%	38%	26%	14%	< 0.1%	12%	23%	24%
5	Aston Villa	56.8	+7	0.14%	48%	36%	24%	13%	< 0.1%	11%	24%	22%
8	Newcastle	56.6	+4	0.16%	46%	34%	23%	13%	< 0.1%	12%	22%	21%
6	Man United	54.8	+7	0.32%	37%	27%	17%	9%	< 0.1%	9%	20%	16%
3	Bournemouth	51.7	+1	0.99%	22%	14%	8%	3.7%	< 0.1%	8%	14%	7%
9	Leeds	51.2	-0	1.1%	19%	12%	7%	3.1%	< 0.1%	7%	11%	6%
10	Everton	50.7	-2	1.1%	17%	11%	6%	2.6%	< 0.1%	8%	11%	5%
7	Crystal Palace	48.6	-7	2.3%	11%	7%	3.4%	1.4%	< 0.1%	6%	7%	3.1%
5	Forest	44.0	-11	8%	3.3%	1.7%	0.76%	0.26%		1.9%	2.9%	0.67%
3	Tottenham	42.3	-14	13%	1.9%	0.98%	0.43%	0.15%		1.2%	2.0%	0.38%
2	Fulham	41.4	-11	15%	1.5%	0.74%	0.31%	< 0.1%		2.4%	1.9%	0.27%
4	Sunderland	35.2	-25	47%	0.12%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%		0.40%	0.27%	< 0.1%
9	Ipswich	34.9	-35	52%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%		< 0.1%	0.11%	< 0.1%
6	Coventry	31.7	-37	71%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%		< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
9	Hull	28.4	-40	87%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%				< 0.1%	< 0.1%

Titles

Team	League	FA Cup	League Cup	Europe
Man City	58%	27%	18%
Arsenal	41%	31%	48%
Liverpool	0.49%	9%	10%
Brighton	0.30%	4.4%	1.7%
Chelsea	< 0.1%	3.7%	3.9%
Brentford	< 0.1%	2.7%	4.6%
Aston Villa	< 0.1%	4.7%	2.4%
Newcastle	< 0.1%	3.6%	4.6%
Man United	< 0.1%	3.6%
Bournemouth	< 0.1%	2.7%	1.2%
Leeds	< 0.1%	1.2%
Everton	< 0.1%	1.4%	1.7%
Crystal Palace	< 0.1%	1.3%	2.0%
Forest		0.91%
Tottenham		0.79%
Fulham		0.95%	1.4%
Sunderland		0.19%	0.31%
Ipswich		< 0.1%
Coventry		< 0.1%
Hull		< 0.1%

Coming Matches

Home		Draw		Away
Everton	29%	26%	45%	Chelsea
Brentford	27%	24%	49%	Liverpool
Fulham	62%	22%	16%	Hull
Man City	81%	12%	7%	Ipswich
Newcastle	36%	24%	40%	Aston Villa
Bournemouth	55%	25%	20%	Sunderland
Brighton	47%	25%	28%	Crystal Palace
Leeds	29%	24%	47%	Man United
Forest	11%	20%	69%	Arsenal

Most likely combo of teams in CL

12%	Arsenal, Brighton, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City
6%	Arsenal, Brentford, Brighton, Liverpool, Man City
6%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Brighton, Liverpool, Man City
6%	Arsenal, Brighton, Liverpool, Man City, Newcastle
4.7%	Arsenal, Brighton, Liverpool, Man City
4.0%	Arsenal, Brighton, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
2.8%	Arsenal, Brentford, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City
2.4%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Newcastle
2.4%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City
2.1%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City

Most likely combo of teams being relegated

24%	Coventry, Hull, Ipswich
20%	Coventry, Hull, Sunderland
11%	Hull, Ipswich, Sunderland
5%	Coventry, Fulham, Hull
4.9%	Coventry, Hull, Tottenham
4.7%	Coventry, Ipswich, Sunderland
3.1%	Coventry, Forest, Hull
2.9%	Fulham, Hull, Ipswich
2.5%	Fulham, Hull, Sunderland
2.4%	Hull, Ipswich, Tottenham

 

Europa League 26/27

 

Pos	Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Top 24	Top 16	Top 8	R16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
1	0	Bournemouth	18	22-8	99.71%	97.2%	82%	97.6%	78%	56%	38%	24%
2	0	Benfica	18	18-7	99.59%	96.5%	79%	96.3%	71%	45%	27%	15%
3	0	Bayer Leverkusen	17	19-6	99.31%	95%	74%	95%	67%	40%	23%	12%
4	0	Crystal Palace	17	16-10	98.7%	92%	66%	93%	64%	39%	22%	11%
5	0	Sunderland	16	16-6	98.3%	90%	61%	89%	52%	25%	11%	4.8%
6	0	Juventus	16	16-8	97.9%	89%	59%	89%	57%	31%	16%	8%
7	0	Rennes	15	18-9	96.8%	84%	50%	83%	45%	20%	8%	3.4%
8	0	Milan	14	21-9	95.8%	80%	42%	82%	48%	24%	11%	5%
9	0	Marseille	14	18-11	94%	77%	39%	78%	41%	18%	8%	3.1%
10	0	TSG Hoffenheim	14	14-7	94%	77%	39%	77%	38%	16%	6%	2.4%
11	0	Union Saint-Gilloise	14	15-9	94%	76%	38%	77%	40%	18%	7%	3.0%
12	0	Lyon	13	17-10	91%	69%	30%	74%	39%	19%	8%	3.5%
13	0	Celta Vigo	13	16-13	89%	65%	26%	69%	33%	14%	5%	2.1%
14	0	Olympiakos	13	10-8	88%	62%	24%	63%	26%	10%	3.2%	1.1%
15	0	Real Sociedad	11	12-8	80%	47%	13%	53%	22%	8%	2.8%	0.99%
16	0	Dinamo Zagreb	11	6-11	71%	37%	9%	37%	10%	2.6%	0.56%	0.15%
17	0	NEC	10	15-14	69%	35%	8%	32%	7%	1.4%	0.24%	< 0.1%
18	0	Celtic	10	13-12	69%	35%	8%	36%	10%	2.4%	0.54%	0.14%
19	0	Sparta Prague	10	9-9	68%	33%	7%	32%	7%	1.6%	0.29%	< 0.1%
20	0	AZ	10	18-19	68%	33%	7%	31%	7%	1.5%	0.26%	< 0.1%
21	0	Viktoria Plzen	10	16-19	64%	30%	6%	30%	7%	1.7%	0.33%	< 0.1%
22	0	Celje	10	10-16	60%	27%	5%	20%	2.9%	0.37%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
23	0	Ferencvaros	9	13-13	58%	25%	4.7%	24%	4.8%	0.89%	0.15%	< 0.1%
24	0	Anderlecht	9	11-12	57%	24%	4.8%	24%	4.9%	0.92%	0.15%	< 0.1%
25	0	Red Bull Salzburg	9	15-19	53%	21%	3.5%	18%	3.0%	0.46%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
26	0	Lech Poznan	8	9-11	45%	15%	2.2%	17%	3.4%	0.63%	0.10%	< 0.1%
27	0	Jagiellonia Bialystok	8	12-16	43%	15%	2.1%	13%	2.0%	0.27%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
28	0	Levski Sofia	8	7-12	41%	14%	1.8%	11%	1.5%	0.17%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
29	0	Sturm Graz	8	9-16	39%	12%	1.6%	12%	1.8%	0.26%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
30	0	Torreense	8	8-15	39%	12%	1.6%	9%	0.90%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
31	0	Besiktas	8	9-17	38%	12%	1.8%	14%	2.8%	0.51%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
32	0	Hapoel Be'er Sheva	7	12-17	34%	10%	1.2%	10%	1.4%	0.19%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
33	0	Omonia	7	11-20	28%	8%	0.86%	8%	1.1%	0.14%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
34	0	Lillestrom	5	9-12	15%	3.0%	0.21%	2.5%	0.19%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
35	0	OFI	5	4-16	11%	1.8%	0.12%	1.6%	0.11%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
36	0	Ararat-Armenia	5	10-23	12%	2.0%	0.13%	0.96%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%

Expected Requirement

	Top 24		Top 16		Top 8
	Pts	GD	Pts	GD	Pts	GD
1%	10	12-11	13	16-8	18	13-6
5%	10	7-9	13	12-9	17	12-3
25%	9	11-11	12	15-9	16	17-9
50%	9	9-13	12	11-10	16	14-11
75%	8	13-14	11	15-10	15	15-9
95%	8	5-11	11	16-18	14	16-10
99%	7	19-23	10	17-16	14	12-10

Important for Top-8
Milan vs Benfica (12.5%)	Home Win (36%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (39%)
Milan	61%	38%	26%
Benfica	67%	78%	91%
Real Sociedad vs Bournemouth (9.5%)	Home Win (24%)	Draw (22%)	Away Win (54%)
Bournemouth	66%	77%	91%
Real Sociedad	28%	13%	7%
Viktoria Plzen vs Union Saint-Gilloise (9%)	Home Win (28%)	Draw (23%)	Away Win (49%)
Union Saint-Gilloise	21%	30%	51%
Viktoria Plzen	14%	4.8%	2.3%
Sunderland vs AZ (8.7%)	Home Win (66%)	Draw (19%)	Away Win (15%)
Sunderland	71%	49%	36%
AZ	3.9%	8%	20%
Juventus vs NEC (7.7%)	Home Win (71%)	Draw (17%)	Away Win (12%)
Juventus	67%	45%	33%
NEC	5%	10%	23%
Sturm Graz vs Rennes (7.4%)	Home Win (20%)	Draw (21%)	Away Win (59%)
Rennes	28%	39%	61%
Sturm Graz	5.0%	1.3%	0.53%
Anderlecht vs Lyon (7.3%)	Home Win (23%)	Draw (22%)	Away Win (55%)
Lyon	14%	22%	41%
Anderlecht	12%	4.3%	2.1%
Besiktas vs Marseille (7.3%)	Home Win (24%)	Draw (22%)	Away Win (54%)
Marseille	21%	30%	52%
Besiktas	4.9%	1.4%	0.6%
Crystal Palace vs Lech Poznan (5.8%)	Home Win (74%)	Draw (15%)	Away Win (10%)
Crystal Palace	73%	52%	40%
Lech Poznan	1.2%	2.7%	9%
Bayer Leverkusen vs Celje (5.5%)	Home Win (80%)	Draw (13%)	Away Win (8%)
Bayer Leverkusen	79%	58%	46%
Celje	3.6%	7%	18%
Omonia vs Celta Vigo (5.3%)	Home Win (20%)	Draw (21%)	Away Win (59%)
Celta Vigo	11%	17%	35%
Omonia	2.7%	0.7%	0.28%

Important for Knockout Stage
Levski Sofia vs Red Bull Salzburg (15.3%)	Home Win (40%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (36%)
Levski Sofia	60%	36%	24%
Red Bull Salzburg	37%	50%	73%
Hapoel Be'er Sheva vs Dinamo Zagreb (13.5%)	Home Win (32%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (44%)
Hapoel Be'er Sheva	54%	30%	20%
Dinamo Zagreb	55%	67%	85%
Celtic vs Ferencvaros (12.6%)	Home Win (51%)	Draw (23%)	Away Win (26%)
Celtic	82%	62%	50%
Ferencvaros	46%	59%	79%
Lillestrom vs Torreense (12.2%)	Home Win (40%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (35%)
Torreense	24%	35%	58%
Lillestrom	27%	11%	6%
Ararat-Armenia vs Sparta Prague (10.1%)	Home Win (16%)	Draw (19%)	Away Win (65%)
Sparta Prague	43%	56%	78%
Ararat-Armenia	29%	12%	7%
Omonia vs Celta Vigo (9.3%)	Home Win (20%)	Draw (21%)	Away Win (59%)
Omonia	52%	30%	20%
Celta Vigo	77%	86%	95.2%
Olympiakos vs Jagiellonia Bialystok (9%)	Home Win (66%)	Draw (19%)	Away Win (15%)
Jagiellonia Bialystok	36%	48%	72%
Olympiakos	93%	82%	72%
Anderlecht vs Lyon (8.9%)	Home Win (23%)	Draw (22%)	Away Win (55%)
Anderlecht	78%	59%	47%
Lyon	82%	89%	96.5%
Besiktas vs Marseille (8.6%)	Home Win (24%)	Draw (22%)	Away Win (54%)
Besiktas	62%	39%	28%
Marseille	88%	93%	97.9%
Viktoria Plzen vs Union Saint-Gilloise (8.3%)	Home Win (28%)	Draw (23%)	Away Win (49%)
Viktoria Plzen	84%	65%	53%
Union Saint-Gilloise	87%	93%	97.8%
Sturm Graz vs Rennes (7.8%)	Home Win (20%)	Draw (21%)	Away Win (59%)
Sturm Graz	65%	41%	29%
Rennes	92%	95.7%	98.9%
OFI vs TSG Hoffenheim (5.8%)	Home Win (13%)	Draw (17%)	Away Win (70%)
OFI	29%	13%	7%
TSG Hoffenheim	84%	91%	97.2%

 

PL: Arsenal and City yet to lose a point.

Coventry yet to take a point. 

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
12	Arsenal	84.7	+50		99.98%	99.96%	99.91%	99.76%	80%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	99.93%
12	Man City	75.6	+33	< 0.1%	99.11%	98.4%	97.2%	95%	18%	0.38%	1.8%	97.3%
6	Liverpool	62.6	+18	< 0.1%	76%	68%	58%	46%	0.81%	6%	17%	60%
4	Man United	60.8	+16	< 0.1%	68%	59%	49%	36%	0.46%	7%	19%	50%
1	Aston Villa	59.2	+12	0.17%	60%	51%	40%	28%	0.25%	8%	20%	43%
7	Brighton	56.4	+12	0.44%	46%	36%	27%	17%	0.12%	5%	37%	26%
3	Bournemouth	56.3	+9	0.49%	45%	35%	26%	17%	0.10%	8%	14%	43%
7	Chelsea	55.3	+3	0.72%	38%	29%	21%	13%	< 0.1%	8%	17%	21%
6	Brentford	54.6	+6	0.81%	35%	27%	19%	12%	< 0.1%	12%	16%	19%
5	Newcastle	54.3	+3	0.95%	33%	25%	17%	10%	< 0.1%	8%	16%	17%
8	Leeds	52.8	+0	1.5%	26%	19%	13%	7%	< 0.1%	7%	13%	13%
5	Forest	52.8	+1	1.6%	26%	19%	13%	7%	< 0.1%	6%	14%	13%
6	Everton	51.6	-0	2.1%	21%	15%	10%	6%	< 0.1%	9%	12%	10%
3	Crystal Palace	48.1	-8	6%	11%	7%	4.2%	2.2%	< 0.1%	4.0%	6%	15%
1	Fulham	47.4	-4	7%	9%	6%	3.6%	1.8%	< 0.1%	4.3%	7%	3.5%
2	Tottenham	44.5	-12	13%	4.2%	2.6%	1.4%	0.65%	< 0.1%	2.4%	3.7%	1.4%
4	Sunderland	42.1	-17	21%	2.1%	1.2%	0.63%	0.27%		2.0%	1.8%	5%
6	Ipswich	34.7	-35	67%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%		0.26%	0.19%	< 0.1%
0	Coventry	30.5	-38	84%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%		0.15%	0.20%	< 0.1%
8	Hull	27.5	-49	94%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%		< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%

Titles

Team	League	FA Cup	League Cup	Europe
Arsenal	80%	31%	34%	28%
Man City	18%	14%	13%	10%
Liverpool	0.81%	7%	9%	4.8%
Man United	0.46%	8%	6%	4.5%
Aston Villa	0.25%	8%	6%	5%
Brighton	0.12%	3.3%	1.3%	34%
Bournemouth	0.10%	4.7%	8%	24%
Chelsea	< 0.1%	2.8%	2.0%
Brentford	< 0.1%	3.0%	8%
Newcastle	< 0.1%	3.1%	1.3%
Leeds	< 0.1%	1.8%	0.72%
Forest	< 0.1%	2.5%
Everton	< 0.1%	1.9%	4.5%
Crystal Palace	< 0.1%	1.9%	1.1%	11%
Fulham	< 0.1%	2.2%	1.2%
Tottenham	< 0.1%	1.3%	0.71%
Sunderland		0.69%	1.1%	4.8%
Ipswich		0.13%	0.19%
Coventry		0.18%	0.13%
Hull		< 0.1%	< 0.1%

 

CL: Mathday 1

 In matchday 2, PSG are visiting Etihad in Manchester in an expected top match. That match will probably not influence which teams reach the knockout phase. For that matches like Leipzig vs PSV and Villarreal vs Napoli are more important.

Nine to ten points are expected to be required to reach the knockout phase. To reach top-8 is expected to require 15-16 points. 

 

Pos	Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Top 24	Top 16	Top 8	R16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
1	3	Arsenal	19	17-6	99.91%	98.3%	86%	98.3%	80%	60%	43%	28%
2	3	Real Madrid	17	20-9	99.61%	95.0%	72%	92%	57%	29%	14%	6%
3	3	Bayern Munich	17	14-3	99.21%	93%	69%	94%	68%	44%	27%	15%
4	3	Liverpool	16	20-9	98.5%	90%	61%	88%	52%	26%	11%	4.8%
5	3	Barcelona	16	17-8	98.6%	89%	57%	89%	57%	32%	17%	8%
6	3	Man City	16	14-5	98.4%	89%	58%	90%	60%	36%	20%	10%
7	3	Aston Villa	16	18-11	98.3%	88%	57%	87%	52%	27%	12%	5%
8	3	Paris Saint-Germain	15	20-6	97.6%	85%	52%	87%	58%	34%	19%	9%
9	3	Man United	15	17-13	95.4%	78%	41%	79%	45%	23%	10%	4.5%
10	3	Sporting CP	15	12-13	97.0%	78%	38%	74%	34%	13%	4.6%	1.6%
11	0	Inter Milan	14	28-12	96.6%	80%	40%	78%	41%	19%	8%	3.0%
12	3	Borussia Dortmund	14	17-13	95%	73%	32%	69%	29%	11%	3.5%	1.2%
13	3	VfB Stuttgart	13	18-13	91%	65%	26%	56%	18%	4.9%	1.1%	0.31%
14	3	Real Betis	12	16-13	86%	51%	15%	45%	13%	3.2%	0.69%	0.18%
15	0	Porto	12	6-5	80%	46%	13%	48%	17%	6%	1.6%	0.51%
16	3	Como	12	16-18	80%	44%	13%	42%	13%	3.3%	0.76%	0.19%
17	3	Lens	12	12-14	79%	44%	13%	42%	13%	3.6%	0.87%	0.24%
18	0	Napoli	11	15-14	75%	38%	8%	40%	12%	3.7%	0.94%	0.27%
19	1	Roma	11	15-14	76%	38%	9%	42%	14%	4.3%	1.2%	0.36%
20	0	Atletico Madrid	11	11-10	74%	38%	9%	44%	17%	6%	2.0%	0.66%
21	0	Villarreal	10	15-16	64%	26%	4.9%	30%	8%	2.3%	0.53%	0.14%
22	1	Fenerbahce	10	11-12	63%	25%	4.2%	20%	3.4%	0.52%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
23	1	PSV Eindhoven	10	11-12	62%	27%	5%	29%	8%	2.2%	0.52%	0.14%
24	3	AEK Athens	10	7-8	66%	26%	4.8%	20%	3.2%	0.44%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
25	0	RB Leipzig	10	15-18	62%	24%	4.1%	29%	8%	2.2%	0.51%	0.14%
26	0	Lille	9	15-18	51%	16%	2.1%	21%	5%	1.3%	0.29%	< 0.1%
27	0	Bodoe Glimt	9	9-14	48%	17%	2.5%	18%	3.9%	0.80%	0.14%	< 0.1%
28	0	Club Brugge	9	10-19	46%	16%	2.4%	20%	6%	1.5%	0.35%	< 0.1%
29	0	Viking	7	12-14	32%	7%	0.61%	8%	1.1%	0.14%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
30	0	Galatasaray	7	7-10	32%	8%	0.88%	10%	1.9%	0.34%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
31	0	Slavia Prague	7	10-17	25%	4.9%	0.40%	7%	1.1%	0.16%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
32	0	Feyenoord	6	11-17	21%	4.5%	0.41%	4.4%	0.51%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
33	0	LASK	4	8-16	6%	0.60%	< 0.1%	0.46%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
34	0	Slovan Bratislava	4	8-20	5%	0.47%	< 0.1%	0.21%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
35	1	Shakhtar Donetsk	3	8-24	1.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
36	0	Sabah	1	5-21	0.35%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%

Expected Requirement

	Top 24		Top 16		Top 8
	Pts	GD	Pts	GD	Pts	GD
1%	11	9-12	14	12-9	18	16-9
5%	10	14-14	13	16-10	17	19-10
25%	10	9-14	13	13-12	16	20-11
50%	9	10-11	12	16-11	16	17-12
75%	9	12-18	12	12-11	15	15-6
95%	8	10-14	11	15-13	14	21-9
99%	7	17-14	11	10-11	14	14-9