Monday, June 22, 2026

Argentina vs Austria in Group J final

Argentina play group final vs Austria and if they win they have 21% to win the tournament compared with 13% if they lose. Basically because the group winner likely gets Saudi or Cape Verde in the next round, while the runner-up likely gets Spain.

Group G


Probabilities
TeamPldGDPtsxPts4th3rd2nd1stLast 32
Egypt2+245.15
31%21%48%>99.99%
Iran2023.614.0%47%19%30%72%
Belgium2024.2412%13%52%23%86%
New Zealand2-211.5984%8%7%
14%

Group H


Probabilities
TeamPldGDPtsxPts4th3rd2nd1stLast 32
Spain2+446.22
5%9%86%100%
Uruguay2022.616%67%6%12%35%
Cape Verde2023.3226%21%51%2.6%61%
Saudi Arabia2-412.4459%7%34%
40%

Group I


Probabilities
TeamPldGDPtsxPts4th3rd2nd1stLast 32
Norway1+335.350.68%27%48%24%98.1%
France1+237.550.55%2.0%24%73%99.43%
Senegal1-203.4814%56%27%2.3%72%
Iraq1-300.8885%14%0.97%0.36%9%

Norway
Senegal - Norway
+4+3+2+1DrawAway
83%90%95%96.6%>99.99%100%Fra - Ira
84%92%96.5%98.5%>99.99%100%98.7%Home
79%85%88%91%100%100%96.1%Draw
68%76%80%80%100%100%93%Away


France
France - Iraq
HomeDraw-1-2-3-4
100%>99.99%90%89%84%84%Sen - Nor
100%100%81%82%78%81%99.0%Home
100%100%86%84%85%-99.2%Draw
100%>99.99%99.7%98%89%87%99.93%Away


Senegal
Senegal - Norway
+4+3+2+1Draw-1-2-3-4
94%94%93%91%69%63%58%50%42%Fra - Ira
94%94%93%91%69%64%58%50%41%72%Home
95%94%93%92%69%64%59%51%43%73%Draw
95%93%93%91%67%59%54%49%40%71%Away


Iraq
France - Iraq
+4+3+2+1Draw-1-2-3-4
4.9%6%8%9%14%37%40%46%44%Sen - Nor
3.4%4.0%5%6%14%37%41%45%44%7%Home
6%7%9%11%14%40%42%46%-10%Draw
6%7%9%11%14%36%39%46%42%10%Away


Group J


Probabilities
TeamPldGDPtsxPts4th3rd2nd1stLast 32
Argentina1+337.790.28%1.4%15%83%99.71%
Austria1+235.232.2%21%61%15%95%
Jordan1-201.5461%35%3.2%1.1%24%
Algeria1-302.6737%43%20%0.78%47%

Argentina
Argentina - Austria
HomeDrawAway
100%100%97.8%Alg - Jor
100%100%96.3%99.5%Home
100%100%97.8%99.7%Draw
100%100%99.8%99.98%Away


Austria
Argentina - Austria
+4+3+2+1DrawAway
88%91%94%95.8%99.95%100%Alg - Jor
88%93%96.2%98.6%100%100%96.2%Home
87%91%95%96.6%99.8%100%95.0%Draw
87%89%90%91%100%100%93%Away


Jordan
Algeria - Jordan
HomeDraw-1-2-3-4
0.6%7%58%77%89%95%Arg - Aus

7%54%78%90%95%23%Home

7%67%77%86%94%25%Draw
4.5%8%67%77%87%93%27%Away


Algeria
Algeria - Jordan
+4+3+2+1Draw-1-2-3-4
97%92%85%78%29%16%6%3.7%2%Arg - Aus
97%92%85%78%29%23%9%5%3%49%Home
97%92%85%78%28%



43%Draw
97%92%84%77%29%



43%Away



Factors influencing which team wins the tournament

  • Argentina have 20% if they draw (or win) against Austria; otherwise 13%
  • Argentina have 21% if they win against Austria; otherwise 17%


Last 32
Last 16
Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Final
Champions
Germany (100%)



Germany (64%)
Paraguay (15%)

Paraguay (38%)
Australia (32%)
Scotland (19%)







France (44%)
Germany (27%)
Norway (9%)

France (73%)
Norway (24%)







France (61%)
Norway (16%)
Sweden (12%)



Sweden (68%)
Japan (18%)











France (32%)
Germany (15%)
Netherlands (12%)
Switzerland (8%)

South Korea (83%)
South Africa (15%)









Switzerland (43%)
South Korea (32%)
Canada (22%)





Switzerland (62%)
Canada (38%)











Netherlands (25%)
Switzerland (20%)
Morocco (12%)
Japan (11%)



Netherlands (61%)
Japan (34%)









Netherlands (38%)
Morocco (24%)
Japan (19%)
Brazil (13%)





Morocco (65%)
Brazil (22%)















Spain (34%)
France (18%)
Germany (6%)
Netherlands (5%)

Portugal (43%)
Colombia (26%)
DR Congo (17%)











Croatia (40%)
Portugal (27%)
Colombia (16%)
Uzbekistan (5%)







Croatia (73%)
Ghana (14%)













Spain (53%)
Croatia (13%)
Portugal (10%)





Spain (86%)











Spain (70%)
Austria (12%)







Austria (61%)
Algeria (20%)
Argentina (15%)















Spain (46%)
United States (10%)
Croatia (8%)



United States (100%)











United States (73%)
Bosnia and Herzegovina (14%)







Bosnia and Herzegovina (57%)
Qatar (21%)
Ecuador (5%)













United States (39%)
Belgium (8%)
Egypt (7%)
Iran (7%)





Egypt (48%)
Iran (30%)
Belgium (23%)











Egypt (19%)
Iran (14%)
Belgium (14%)
Czechia (7%)
Uruguay (7%)







Czechia (15%)
South Korea (11%)
Algeria (11%)
Uruguay (10%)
Jordan (9%)



















Spain (25%)
Argentina (19%)
France (14%)
England (7%)
Brazil (62%)
Morocco (32%)











Brazil (37%)
Japan (22%)
Netherlands (21%)
Morocco (13%)







Japan (47%)
Netherlands (39%)
Sweden (15%)













Brazil (22%)
Norway (18%)
France (14%)
Netherlands (12%)
Japan (11%)





Ivory Coast (84%)











Norway (36%)
France (21%)
Senegal (20%)
Ivory Coast (18%)







Norway (48%)
Senegal (27%)
France (24%)















England (27%)
Brazil (14%)
France (10%)
Norway (9%)



Mexico (100%)











Mexico (55%)
Scotland (19%)
Ecuador (8%)







Scotland (49%)
Ecuador (14%)
Brazil (10%)













England (46%)
Mexico (21%)
Scotland (5%)





England (92%)











England (67%)
Portugal (6%)







Uzbekistan (26%)
DR Congo (22%)
Senegal (13%)
Portugal (13%)

















Argentina (30%)
England (14%)
Colombia (9%)
Brazil (7%)

Argentina (83%)
Austria (15%)









Argentina (74%)
Austria (11%)





Cape Verde (51%)
Saudi Arabia (34%)











Argentina (60%)
Belgium (9%)
Paraguay (7%)



Australia (57%)
Paraguay (43%)









Belgium (30%)
Australia (28%)
Paraguay (24%)
Iran (9%)





Belgium (52%)
Egypt (21%)
Iran (19%)













Argentina (44%)
Colombia (16%)
Portugal (7%)

Canada (62%)
Switzerland (38%)







Canada (34%)
Switzerland (26%)
Egypt (10%)
Iran (9%)



Egypt (29%)
Iran (21%)
Algeria (11%)
Belgium (11%)









Colombia (34%)
Portugal (15%)
Switzerland (11%)
Canada (11%)

Colombia (65%)
Portugal (29%)





Colombia (49%)
Portugal (22%)
Croatia (6%)

Ghana (39%)
Senegal (14%)
Croatia (12%)
Panama (11%)


What is needed to qualify as 3rd team?
PtsGDProbabilityLast 32Chance
6-0.68%0.68%100%
5-< 0.1%< 0.1%100%
4-32%32%99.94%
3-110%9%94%
33-51.8%1.4%82%
32-41.9%1.5%79%
33-61.9%1.3%66%
32-52.0%1.2%62%
33-71.1%0.55%51%
32-61.3%0.62%48%
3-52.3%0.93%41%
3-61.2%0.42%35%
23-42.6%0.30%11%
1-7%< 0.1%< 0.1%

Group F
point123456

GD-3-4-6-52-63-72-53-62-43-5-1---

3rd100%

0.6%1.8%





23%41%

3rd & Last 3293%

0.2%0.9%





23%41%

Netherlands3rd0.7%










0.7%

3rd & Last 320.7%










0.7%

Japan3rd19%










19%

3rd & Last 3219%










19%

Sweden3rd80%

0.6%1.8%





23%21%

3rd & Last 3272%

0.2%0.9%





23%21%

Tunisia3rd














3rd & Last 32














Group C
point123456

GD-3-4-6-52-63-72-53-62-43-5-1---

3rd100%

0.7%2.2%1.6%0.3%3.7%0.8%7.1%2%23%38%

3rd & Last 3286%

0.3%1%0.8%0.2%2.5%0.6%5.7%1.7%21%38%

Brazil3rd15%










15%

3rd & Last 3215%










15%

Morocco3rd2.3%










2.3%

3rd & Last 322.3%










2.3%

Scotland3rd82%

0.7%2.2%1.6%0.3%3.7%0.8%7.1%2%23%20%

3rd & Last 3268%

0.3%1%0.8%0.2%2.5%0.6%5.7%1.7%21%20%

Haiti3rd














3rd & Last 32














Group D
point123456

GD-3-4-6-52-63-72-53-62-43-5-1---

3rd100%

1.3%4.4%6.2%4.2%10%9.6%6.6%4.9%21%24%

3rd & Last 3279%

0.5%2%3.2%2.3%6.6%6.5%5.2%4%20%24%

United States3rd














3rd & Last 32














Australia3rd43%

0.2%0.7%1.4%0.6%3.6%2%6.6%4.9%21%


3rd & Last 3236%

< 0.1%0.3%0.8%0.4%2.3%1.4%5.2%4%20%


Paraguay3rd57%

1.1%3.7%4.7%3.5%6.8%7.6%


24%

3rd & Last 3243%

0.4%1.7%2.4%1.9%4.3%5.1%


24%

Turkey3rd














3rd & Last 32














Group I
point123456

GD-3-4-6-52-63-72-53-62-43-5-1---

3rd100%6.4%
1.6%2.8%0.6%1.4%0.8%2%0.8%2.7%11%27%
4.4%
3rd & Last 3279%

0.6%1.2%0.3%0.7%0.5%1.4%0.7%2.3%11%27%
4.4%
Norway3rd27%

< 0.1%0.2%





3.9%9%
1.5%
3rd & Last 3226%

< 0.1%0.1%





3.8%9%
1.5%
France3rd2%

< 0.1%< 0.1%
< 0.1%
< 0.1%
< 0.1%0.2%1.1%
0.4%
3rd & Last 322%

< 0.1%< 0.1%
< 0.1%
< 0.1%
< 0.1%0.2%1.1%
0.4%
Senegal3rd56%5.6%
0.2%0.6%0.3%0.6%0.5%1.3%0.8%2.5%6.8%15%
2.3%
3rd & Last 3243%

< 0.1%0.3%0.1%0.3%0.4%0.9%0.7%2.2%6.5%15%
2.3%
Iraq3rd14%0.8%
1.3%2%0.3%0.8%0.2%0.7%
0.1%0.2%1.8%
0.2%
3rd & Last 327.8%

0.5%0.9%0.2%0.4%0.1%0.5%
< 0.1%0.2%1.8%
0.2%
Group B
point123456

GD-3-4-6-52-63-72-53-62-43-5-1---

3rd100%










78%

3rd & Last 3278%










78%

Canada3rd0.1%










0.1%

3rd & Last 320.1%










0.1%

Switzerland3rd< 0.1%










< 0.1%

3rd & Last 32< 0.1%










< 0.1%

Bosnia and Herzegovina3rd78%










57%

3rd & Last 3257%










57%

Qatar3rd21%










21%

3rd & Last 3221%










21%

Group G
point123456

GD-3-4-6-52-63-72-53-62-43-5-1---

3rd100%
7.5%








38%

3rd & Last 3272%
1.1%








38%

Egypt3rd31%










31%

3rd & Last 3231%










31%

Iran3rd47%
7.2%











3rd & Last 3223%
1%











Belgium3rd13%
0.3%











3rd & Last 3212%
< 0.1%











New Zealand3rd8.5%










6.2%

3rd & Last 326.4%










6.2%

Group K
point123456

GD-3-4-6-52-63-72-53-62-43-5-1---

3rd100%1.8%3%0.7%1.8%0.6%1.3%0.8%2.1%0.8%2.6%5.9%34%0.8%
3rd & Last 3269%< 0.1%0.5%0.2%0.7%0.3%0.7%0.5%1.4%0.6%2.2%5.7%34%0.8%
Colombia3rd8.1%

< 0.1%< 0.1%
< 0.1%
< 0.1%
0.2%1.2%4.4%0.1%
3rd & Last 327.8%

< 0.1%< 0.1%
< 0.1%
< 0.1%
0.1%1.1%4.4%0.1%
Portugal3rd20%1.3%1.4%








8.3%0.3%
3rd & Last 3213%< 0.1%0.2%








8.3%0.3%
DR Congo3rd36%0.6%1.6%








18%0.4%
3rd & Last 3222%
0.2%








18%0.4%
Uzbekistan3rd35%

0.7%1.7%0.6%1.3%0.8%2%0.8%2.4%4.8%3.5%

3rd & Last 3226%

0.2%0.7%0.3%0.6%0.5%1.3%0.6%2%4.6%3.5%

Group J
point123456

GD-3-4-6-52-63-72-53-62-43-5-1---

3rd100%9.1%
2.2%5%2%3.1%3.3%5.3%1%3.7%8.4%20%
2.1%
3rd & Last 3266%

0.8%2%0.9%1.5%2%3.4%0.8%3%8.1%20%
2.1%
Argentina3rd1.4%


< 0.1%
< 0.1%
< 0.1%
< 0.1%< 0.1%0.8%
0.1%
3rd & Last 321.3%




< 0.1%
< 0.1%
< 0.1%< 0.1%0.8%
0.1%
Austria3rd21%

0.3%0.7%
0.4%
0.7%
0.8%4%5.6%
0.5%
3rd & Last 3218%

< 0.1%0.3%
0.2%
0.4%
0.7%3.8%5.6%
0.5%
Jordan3rd35%5.6%
1.2%2.4%0.6%1.3%0.6%1.6%0.4%1.5%2.6%4.1%
0.4%
3rd & Last 3220%

0.4%1%0.3%0.6%0.4%1%0.3%1.2%2.5%4.1%
0.4%
Algeria3rd43%3.6%
0.7%2%1.4%1.3%2.7%3%0.6%1.4%1.8%9.7%
1%
3rd & Last 3226%

0.3%0.8%0.7%0.7%1.6%2%0.5%1.1%1.7%9.7%
1%
Group L
point123456

GD-3-4-6-52-63-72-53-62-43-5-1---

3rd100%1%0.2%7.4%9.5%4.1%2.6%4%2.9%3.1%2.9%8.3%18%
1.6%
3rd & Last 3263%< 0.1%< 0.1%2.4%3.4%1.8%1.2%2.2%1.8%2.4%2.3%7.7%18%
1.6%
England3rd0.8%


< 0.1%





< 0.1%0.6%
< 0.1%
3rd & Last 320.8%


< 0.1%





< 0.1%0.6%
< 0.1%
Ghana3rd69%

7.2%9%3.8%2.3%3.3%2.3%2.2%1.7%2.7%12%
1.2%
3rd & Last 3239%

2.4%3.3%1.6%1.1%1.9%1.4%1.6%1.4%2.4%12%
1.2%
Panama3rd15%0.4%0.2%0.1%0.4%0.4%0.3%0.7%0.5%1%0.9%3.4%3%
< 0.1%
3rd & Last 3211%< 0.1%< 0.1%< 0.1%0.1%0.1%0.1%0.4%0.3%0.7%0.7%3.1%3%
< 0.1%
Croatia3rd15%0.6%
< 0.1%< 0.1%
< 0.1%
0.1%
0.3%2.2%2.8%
0.3%
3rd & Last 3212%< 0.1%
< 0.1%< 0.1%
< 0.1%
< 0.1%
0.3%2.1%2.8%
0.3%
Group E
point123456

GD-3-4-6-52-63-72-53-62-43-5-1---

3rd100%24%1.3%< 0.1%< 0.1%0.1%< 0.1%0.4%0.2%1.2%0.9%6.4%39%

3rd & Last 3249%< 0.1%0.1%< 0.1%< 0.1%< 0.1%< 0.1%0.2%0.2%1%0.7%6%39%

Germany3rd














3rd & Last 32














Ivory Coast3rd9.8%

< 0.1%< 0.1%0.1%< 0.1%0.4%0.2%1.2%0.9%6.4%


3rd & Last 328.5%

< 0.1%< 0.1%< 0.1%< 0.1%0.2%0.2%1%0.7%6%


Ecuador3rd77%24%1.3%








33%

3rd & Last 3234%< 0.1%0.1%








33%

Curaçao3rd13%< 0.1%









6.3%

3rd & Last 326.2%










6.2%

Group H
point123456

GD-3-4-6-52-63-72-53-62-43-5-1---

3rd100%
12%








11%

3rd & Last 3236%
1.2%








11%

Spain3rd5%










5%

3rd & Last 325%










5%

Uruguay3rd67%
8%











3rd & Last 3218%
0.8%











Cape Verde3rd21%
4.3%











3rd & Last 327.8%
0.4%











Saudi Arabia3rd7%










5.6%

3rd & Last 325.6%










5.6%

Group A
point123456

GD-3-4-6-52-63-72-53-62-43-5-1---

3rd100%40%7.5%< 0.1%< 0.1%0.2%< 0.1%0.6%0.4%1.8%1.3%9.1%17%

3rd & Last 3230%< 0.1%0.6%< 0.1%< 0.1%< 0.1%< 0.1%0.3%0.2%1.3%1%8.3%17%

Mexico3rd














3rd & Last 32














South Korea3rd14%

< 0.1%< 0.1%0.2%< 0.1%0.6%0.4%1.8%1.3%9.1%


3rd & Last 3212%

< 0.1%< 0.1%< 0.1%< 0.1%0.3%0.2%1.3%1%8.3%


Czechia3rd62%31%7.5%








14%

3rd & Last 3216%< 0.1%0.6%








14%

South Africa3rd24%9%









2.4%

3rd & Last 322.6%< 0.1%









2.4%



 

 

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