Favorites with perfect start

Favourites, Leverkusen, Bournemouth, Benfica, and Juventus have all started with a two wins. In Conference League, Brighton remains the big favorite followed by Atalanta.

Europa League

Pos	Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Top 24	Top 16	Top 8	R16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
1	6	Benfica	20	18-6	99.99%	99.59%	94%	98.9%	74%	48%	28%	15%
2	6	Bayer Leverkusen	19	21-9	99.97%	99.05%	89%	98.2%	76%	51%	32%	19%
3	6	Bournemouth	19	16-5	99.96%	99.12%	88%	98.1%	74%	49%	29%	16%
4	6	Juventus	18	16-4	99.91%	97.9%	81%	96.4%	69%	42%	23%	12%
5	6	Lyon	16	12-6	99.39%	92%	58%	89%	54%	27%	12%	6%
6	6	Sunderland	16	9-5	99.19%	91%	53%	82%	38%	14%	4.6%	1.6%
7	6	Olympiakos	16	12-9	99.11%	90%	52%	80%	35%	11%	3.3%	1.1%
8	3	Crystal Palace	15	17-10	97.9%	86%	46%	86%	55%	30%	16%	8%
9	4	Union Saint-Gilloise	15	14-8	98.3%	87%	45%	85%	52%	27%	13%	6%
10	3	Milan	15	12-7	98.6%	87%	42%	86%	54%	29%	15%	7%
11	4	Rennes	14	12-8	96.1%	77%	33%	74%	35%	14%	5%	1.9%
12	6	Ferencvaros	14	10-7	97.6%	79%	29%	61%	18%	4.2%	0.89%	0.22%
13	6	Besiktas	13	14-11	95.0%	70%	24%	61%	21%	6%	1.7%	0.50%
14	6	Omonia	12	15-14	90%	55%	14%	44%	10%	2.1%	0.38%	< 0.1%
15	3	AZ	12	9-12	84%	49%	10%	46%	14%	4.0%	1.0%	0.30%
16	1	Real Sociedad	11	13-10	85%	47%	8%	58%	25%	11%	4.5%	1.8%
17	4	Dinamo Zagreb	11	12-12	82%	44%	9%	41%	11%	2.8%	0.62%	0.16%
18	3	Red Bull Salzburg	11	12-14	80%	41%	7%	37%	9%	2.1%	0.43%	0.10%
19	4	Sparta Prague	10	14-16	69%	29%	4.5%	30%	7%	1.5%	0.29%	< 0.1%
20	0	Marseille	10	13-15	69%	30%	3.4%	44%	18%	8%	3.0%	1.2%
21	0	Celta Vigo	9	13-13	61%	23%	2.5%	37%	14%	6%	2.1%	0.77%
22	1	Sturm Graz	9	9-13	54%	18%	1.5%	19%	3.7%	0.71%	0.12%	< 0.1%
23	3	Jagiellonia Bialystok	9	14-19	54%	17%	1.9%	17%	2.8%	0.44%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
24	0	TSG Hoffenheim	9	9-15	52%	17%	1.8%	29%	10%	3.6%	1.2%	0.40%
25	0	Lech Poznan	9	10-23	46%	12%	0.75%	19%	4.9%	1.3%	0.30%	< 0.1%
26	0	Anderlecht	8	10-11	49%	16%	1.3%	20%	4.9%	1.2%	0.25%	< 0.1%
27	0	Celtic	8	10-16	41%	12%	0.84%	18%	4.5%	1.1%	0.26%	< 0.1%
28	1	NEC	8	10-19	37%	10%	0.76%	10%	1.4%	0.19%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
29	1	Levski Sofia	7	7-12	29%	5%	0.26%	7%	0.89%	0.11%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
30	3	Torreense	7	7-14	27%	4.6%	0.20%	2.8%	0.14%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
31	0	Viktoria Plzen	7	5-12	28%	5%	0.21%	9%	1.7%	0.33%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
32	1	Hapoel Be'er Sheva	7	5-13	25%	4.3%	0.20%	8%	1.5%	0.27%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
33	3	OFI	6	10-16	20%	2.9%	0.10%	2.4%	0.15%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
34	0	Celje	6	9-20	18%	3.0%	0.12%	2.7%	0.22%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
35	1	Lillestrom	5	4-17	8%	0.81%	< 0.1%	1.2%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
36	0	Ararat-Armenia	4	13-20	9%	0.93%	< 0.1%	0.73%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%

Expected Requirement

	Top 24		Top 16		Top 8
	Pts	GD	Pts	GD	Pts	GD
1%	10	12-13	13	14-8	18	13-6
5%	10	11-15	13	12-10	17	14-5
25%	9	12-14	12	16-12	16	18-10
50%	9	9-15	12	11-11	16	12-8
75%	8	7-9	11	14-11	15	11-4
95%	8	8-16	11	9-11	14	15-8
99%	7	7-11	10	10-9	14	10-7

Important for Top-8
Besiktas vs Crystal Palace (16.3%)	Home Win (28%)	Draw (26%)	Away Win (46%)
Crystal Palace	24%	38%	64%
Besiktas	45%	22%	12%
Bournemouth vs Milan (13.9%)	Home Win (52%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (24%)
Milan	29%	44%	70%
Bournemouth	96.0%	86%	75%
Juventus vs Rennes (12.8%)	Home Win (59%)	Draw (22%)	Away Win (19%)
Rennes	23%	35%	61%
Juventus	90%	74%	61%
Olympiakos vs Sparta Prague (10.7%)	Home Win (55%)	Draw (25%)	Away Win (20%)
Olympiakos	66%	40%	27%
Sparta Prague	1.7%	4.0%	13%
TSG Hoffenheim vs Lyon (10.4%)	Home Win (37%)	Draw (23%)	Away Win (40%)
Lyon	40%	54%	77%
TSG Hoffenheim	4.2%	0.7%	0.20%
Lech Poznan vs Sunderland (9.9%)	Home Win (36%)	Draw (27%)	Away Win (37%)
Sunderland	35%	49%	73%
Lech Poznan	1.9%	0.23%	< 0.1%
Omonia vs Benfica (8.4%)	Home Win (19%)	Draw (22%)	Away Win (60%)
Omonia	32%	14%	7%
Benfica	83%	91%	97.7%
Union Saint-Gilloise vs Hapoel Be'er Sheva (6.2%)	Home Win (71%)	Draw (18%)	Away Win (10%)
Union Saint-Gilloise	53%	28%	18%
Hapoel Be'er Sheva	< 0.1%	0.18%	1.3%

Important for Knockout Stage
Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Anderlecht (18.9%)	Home Win (38%)	Draw (26%)	Away Win (37%)
Jagiellonia Bialystok	76%	49%	34%
Anderlecht	31%	45%	70%
Celtic vs Celta Vigo (18.1%)	Home Win (35%)	Draw (25%)	Away Win (40%)
Celta Vigo	42%	57%	80%
Celtic	64%	37%	25%
Sturm Graz vs Marseille (17.3%)	Home Win (28%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (48%)
Sturm Graz	80%	56%	39%
Marseille	49%	63%	84%
Viktoria Plzen vs Levski Sofia (16.3%)	Home Win (53%)	Draw (26%)	Away Win (22%)
Levski Sofia	17%	31%	58%
Viktoria Plzen	41%	17%	10%
Dinamo Zagreb vs NEC (15.7%)	Home Win (60%)	Draw (20%)	Away Win (20%)
Dinamo Zagreb	92%	74%	59%
NEC	27%	40%	66%
Celje vs Red Bull Salzburg (15.1%)	Home Win (27%)	Draw (23%)	Away Win (50%)
Red Bull Salzburg	61%	75%	93%
Celje	36%	15%	9%
Ararat-Armenia vs AZ (10.9%)	Home Win (16%)	Draw (20%)	Away Win (64%)
AZ	63%	76%	92%
Ararat-Armenia	26%	9%	4.5%
Lillestrom vs Real Sociedad (10.9%)	Home Win (15%)	Draw (19%)	Away Win (66%)
Real Sociedad	62%	77%	92%
Lillestrom	25%	9%	3.9%
Lech Poznan vs Sunderland (10.7%)	Home Win (36%)	Draw (27%)	Away Win (37%)
Lech Poznan	69%	40%	28%
Sunderland	98.2%	99.4%	99.97%
TSG Hoffenheim vs Lyon (9.5%)	Home Win (37%)	Draw (23%)	Away Win (40%)
TSG Hoffenheim	73%	48%	35%
Lyon	98.6%	99.6%	99.97%
Ferencvaros vs Torreense (8.9%)	Home Win (73%)	Draw (17%)	Away Win (10%)
Torreense	21%	34%	65%
Ferencvaros	99.54%	95%	88%
Olympiakos vs Sparta Prague (7.2%)	Home Win (55%)	Draw (25%)	Away Win (20%)
Sparta Prague	59%	73%	91%
Olympiakos	99.94%	98.9%	97.0%
Union Saint-Gilloise vs Hapoel Be'er Sheva (7%)	Home Win (71%)	Draw (18%)	Away Win (10%)
Hapoel Be'er Sheva	19%	32%	58%
Union Saint-Gilloise	99.50%	96.9%	93%

Conference League

Pos	Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Top 24	Top 16	Top 8	R16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
1	3	Atalanta	17	13-3	99.97%	99.46%	95.1%	99.29%	79%	55%	34%	17%
2	3	Brighton	14	16-3	99.83%	97.3%	83%	98.6%	87%	73%	57%	40%
3	3	Copenhagen	13	16-9	99.37%	93%	67%	89%	51%	22%	8%	2.5%
4	3	Monaco	13	13-8	99.34%	92%	64%	94%	71%	46%	27%	13%
5	3	Twente	13	7-2	99.48%	93%	64%	87%	44%	16%	4.8%	1.4%
6	1	Midtjylland	13	13-9	98.8%	90%	60%	88%	53%	25%	10%	3.5%
7	3	SC Freiburg	13	11-7	98.9%	90%	60%	93%	67%	43%	24%	11%
8	3	Trabzonspor	11	14-9	96.1%	78%	40%	75%	35%	13%	3.8%	1.1%
9	3	Mjaellby AIF	11	10-7	96.6%	77%	34%	56%	12%	1.8%	0.21%	< 0.1%
10	0	Braga	10	16-9	94%	71%	30%	77%	45%	22%	9%	3.5%
11	3	Lugano	10	11-6	94%	69%	29%	66%	27%	9%	2.3%	0.59%
12	1	Getafe	10	11-8	94%	65%	21%	71%	35%	16%	6%	1.9%
13	3	Gent	10	4-2	90%	62%	24%	60%	23%	7%	1.8%	0.44%
14	3	Panathinaikos	10	8-10	89%	54%	16%	58%	23%	8%	2.2%	0.58%
15	3	Brann	10	9-12	86%	53%	18%	48%	15%	3.4%	0.62%	0.12%
16	0	Red Star Belgrade	9	16-9	89%	57%	19%	61%	26%	10%	2.9%	0.83%
17	1	Nordsjaelland	9	11-10	84%	48%	13%	53%	20%	7%	1.7%	0.45%
18	3	Hajduk Split	9	8-9	81%	44%	12%	41%	11%	2.6%	0.46%	< 0.1%
19	1	Universitatea Craiova	8	11-9	80%	41%	9%	39%	11%	2.4%	0.43%	< 0.1%
20	0	AGF	8	6-4	76%	38%	9%	40%	12%	3.0%	0.61%	0.13%
21	1	Riga	8	6-6	73%	33%	6%	24%	3.8%	0.48%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
22	1	Hearts	8	9-12	70%	29%	5%	28%	6%	1.1%	0.15%	< 0.1%
23	3	Sint-Truiden	7	9-5	73%	32%	6%	38%	12%	3.3%	0.71%	0.17%
24	0	Ajax	7	9-9	64%	27%	6%	42%	19%	8%	2.7%	0.86%
25	0	Thun	7	7-9	58%	23%	4.1%	25%	6%	1.4%	0.22%	< 0.1%
26	0	Jablonec	6	9-13	43%	11%	1.3%	15%	3.0%	0.54%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
27	1	Egnatia	6	6-10	42%	9%	0.76%	6%	0.52%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
28	0	Borac Banja Luka	5	7-9	36%	9%	0.88%	9%	1.2%	0.13%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
29	1	Kairat	5	5-13	24%	4.3%	0.33%	4.4%	0.45%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
30	0	CSKA Sofia	4	6-9	25%	5%	0.47%	7%	1.0%	0.13%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
31	0	KuPS	4	4-8	22%	4.0%	0.31%	5%	0.70%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
32	0	Kauno Zalgiris	4	3-20	11%	1.6%	< 0.1%	1.3%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
33	0	Iberia 1999	3	2-15	6%	0.62%	< 0.1%	0.56%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
34	0	Lincoln Red Imps	2	9-16	4.6%	0.42%	< 0.1%	0.36%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
35	0	Inter Club d'Escaldes	1	7-14	2.8%	0.24%	< 0.1%	0.20%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
36	0	Pafos	1	2-16	0.96%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%

Expected Requirement

	Top 24		Top 16		Top 8
	Pts	GD	Pts	GD	Pts	GD
1%	8	7-8	10	15-8	13	18-5
5%	7	10-9	10	11-8	13	15-8
25%	7	6-8	10	9-9	13	8-4
50%	7	3-8	9	14-11	12	10-3
75%	6	8-10	9	6-5	12	10-7
95%	6	8-17	8	9-7	11	12-8
99%	5	5-8	8	6-6	11	10-9

Important for Top-8
Monaco vs SC Freiburg (23.3%)	Home Win (49%)	Draw (22%)	Away Win (29%)
Monaco	83%	56%	37%
SC Freiburg	45%	62%	85%
Red Star Belgrade vs Copenhagen (19.7%)	Home Win (42%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (34%)
Red Star Belgrade	35%	11%	4.7%
Copenhagen	50%	66%	88%
Midtjylland vs Sint-Truiden (18%)	Home Win (62%)	Draw (20%)	Away Win (18%)
Midtjylland	75%	43%	27%
Sint-Truiden	2.0%	6%	23%
Getafe vs Lugano (17.1%)	Home Win (52%)	Draw (28%)	Away Win (20%)
Getafe	34%	10%	3.9%
Lugano	17%	31%	59%
Braga vs Gent (16.9%)	Home Win (60%)	Draw (23%)	Away Win (17%)
Braga	43%	15%	6%
Gent	15%	27%	53%
Trabzonspor vs Hearts (12.9%)	Home Win (63%)	Draw (20%)	Away Win (16%)
Trabzonspor	52%	25%	15%
Hearts	1.8%	5.0%	20%
Iberia 1999 vs Mjaellby AIF (12.5%)	Home Win (24%)	Draw (26%)	Away Win (50%)
Mjaellby AIF	10%	21%	52%
Lincoln Red Imps vs Twente (10.4%)	Home Win (10%)	Draw (17%)	Away Win (73%)
Twente	26%	41%	74%
Thun vs Hajduk Split (9%)	Home Win (46%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (31%)
Hajduk Split	4.3%	9%	27%
Thun	8%	1.4%	0.5%
Jablonec vs Brighton (7.5%)	Home Win (9%)	Draw (15%)	Away Win (76%)
Brighton	55%	68%	89%
Jablonec	8%	1.5%	0.48%
Ajax vs Atalanta (6.7%)	Home Win (29%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (46%)
Ajax	14%	3.4%	1.4%
Atalanta	90%	95%	98.9%
Kairat vs Panathinaikos (6%)	Home Win (18%)	Draw (25%)	Away Win (57%)
Panathinaikos	3.5%	8%	24%
Kairat	1.5%	0.17%	< 0.1%
Kauno Zalgiris vs Brann (5.6%)	Home Win (20%)	Draw (23%)	Away Win (58%)
Brann	4.9%	9%	26%

Important for Knockout Stage
Borac Banja Luka vs KuPS (19.5%)	Home Win (44%)	Draw (30%)	Away Win (27%)
Borac Banja Luka	55%	27%	15%
KuPS	10%	20%	46%
Thun vs Hajduk Split (18.6%)	Home Win (46%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (31%)
Thun	77%	50%	35%
Hajduk Split	69%	85%	97.1%
Kairat vs Panathinaikos (17.7%)	Home Win (18%)	Draw (25%)	Away Win (57%)
Kairat	56%	23%	13%
Panathinaikos	68%	84%	97.1%
AGF vs Egnatia (15.8%)	Home Win (71%)	Draw (18%)	Away Win (11%)
AGF	85%	60%	43%
Egnatia	33%	51%	81%
Nordsjaelland vs CSKA Sofia (15.2%)	Home Win (65%)	Draw (21%)	Away Win (14%)
Nordsjaelland	93%	73%	58%
CSKA Sofia	17%	30%	58%
Kauno Zalgiris vs Brann (14.5%)	Home Win (20%)	Draw (23%)	Away Win (58%)
Brann	66%	80%	95.2%
Kauno Zalgiris	31%	11%	4.7%
Inter Club d'Escaldes vs Universitatea Craiova (12.5%)	Home Win (15%)	Draw (20%)	Away Win (64%)
Universitatea Craiova	53%	67%	91%
Inter Club d'Escaldes	11%	2.5%	0.8%
Pafos vs Riga (10.2%)	Home Win (11%)	Draw (18%)	Away Win (71%)
Riga	41%	55%	83%
Pafos	6%	0.9%	0.23%
Trabzonspor vs Hearts (9.8%)	Home Win (63%)	Draw (20%)	Away Win (16%)
Hearts	62%	76%	94%
Trabzonspor	99.2%	94%	87%
Ajax vs Atalanta (8.7%)	Home Win (29%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (46%)
Ajax	86%	65%	50%
Midtjylland vs Sint-Truiden (8.3%)	Home Win (62%)	Draw (20%)	Away Win (18%)
Sint-Truiden	65%	80%	95.5%
Midtjylland	99.83%	98.2%	95.8%
Getafe vs Lugano (7.1%)	Home Win (52%)	Draw (28%)	Away Win (20%)
Getafe	98.9%	91%	83%
Lugano	91%	96.5%	99.5%
Iberia 1999 vs Mjaellby AIF (6.9%)	Home Win (24%)	Draw (26%)	Away Win (50%)
Iberia 1999	15%	4.1%	1.7%
Mjaellby AIF	90%	96.6%	99.63%
Braga vs Gent (6.7%)	Home Win (60%)	Draw (23%)	Away Win (17%)
Braga	98.2%	91%	83%
Gent	86%	94%	98.9%
Red Star Belgrade vs Copenhagen (6.3%)	Home Win (42%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (34%)
Red Star Belgrade	97.6%	88%	78%
Copenhagen	98.7%	99.6%	99.97%
Jablonec vs Brighton (5.9%)	Home Win (9%)	Draw (15%)	Away Win (76%)
Jablonec	79%	54%	36%
Brighton	98.7%	99.6%	99.99%

Which countries get extra CL spots

		Score
Country	Probability	Average	Min	Max
England	87%	18.92	10.78	25.67
Germany	27%	15.78	7.79	25.43
Denmark	23%	15.61	7.5	24.63
Portugal	18%	15.08	6.9	24.7
Italy	16%	15.01	7.21	24.64
Spain	15%	15	7.13	23.31
France	9%	14.34	6.57	23.5
Belgium	3.9%	13.16	5.8	23.8
Netherlands	0.13%	10.8	4.83	20.17
Turkey	< 0.1%	10.35	4.5	19.7
Serbia	< 0.1%	9.27	4	17.75
Cyprus	< 0.1%	7.23	3.5	17
Norway	< 0.1%	8.44	4.1	17.1
Greece	< 0.1%	8.53	4.17	15.58

Number of quarterfinalists from Germany; 203 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4	5
Probability	0.77%	8%	27%	39%	21%	4.2%
Chance if	< 0.1%	0.7%	6%	25%	57%	86%

Number of quarterfinalists from Denmark; 199 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	14%	44%	35%	7%
Chance if	0.5%	9%	39%	80%

Number of semifinalists from Germany; 179 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4
Probability	10%	33%	38%	17%	2.3%
Chance if	1.8%	10%	30%	62%	92%

Number of quarterfinalists from Portugal; 170 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4
Probability	9%	38%	40%	13%	0.80%
Chance if	0.1%	3.3%	21%	57%	94%

Number of teams in last-16 stage from Germany; 163 mbit

n	2	3	4	5	6	7
Probability	0.71%	8%	30%	39%	19%	3.0%
Chance if	< 0.1%	1.0%	9%	29%	57%	82%

Number of quarterfinalists from Italy; 162 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4	5
Probability	1.3%	11%	32%	36%	17%	3.0%
Chance if	< 0.1%	0.3%	3.1%	15%	43%	78%

Number of semifinalists from Denmark; 162 mbit

n	0	1	2
Probability	50%	43%	7%
Chance if	6%	34%	78%

Number of quarterfinalists from Spain; 160 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
Probability	1.2%	11%	30%	34%	18%	5%	0.73%
Chance if		0.2%	2.2%	11%	33%	64%	89%

Number of teams in last-16 stage from Denmark; 153 mbit

n	1	2	3	4
Probability	6%	34%	46%	15%
Chance if	0.1%	5%	27%	62%

Number of quarterfinalists from England; 151 mbit

n	2	3	4	5	6	7	8
Probability	1.4%	7%	20%	31%	26%	11%	2.2%
Chance if	18%	47%	76%	92%	98.3%	99.7%	99.99%