PL: Man United nearly (>99.8%) clinched CL spot

Man United need to take two more points to clinch a place in CL mathematically. Brentford are struggling to reach Europe with a current estimated probability of 40%. They need to take 7 points in the remaining four matches to have 50% chance to reach Europe, and they need to take 8 points to have a 50% chance to reach Europa League. It's certainly tight in the Europe zone with seven teams within 4 points.

 

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
73	Arsenal	81.8	+44	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	100%	76%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
70	Man City	79.1	+41	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	100%	24%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
61	Man United	67.2	+15	< 1%	100%	>99.99%	99.81%	90%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	99.82%
58	Aston Villa	64.5	+6	< 1%	99.99%	99.83%	97.9%	52%	< 1%	< 1%	1.1%	98.9%
58	Liverpool	64.3	+14	< 1%	99.97%	99.69%	97.5%	57%	< 1%	< 1%	2.5%	97.5%
50	Brighton	56.2	+10	< 1%	69%	46%	3.1%	< 1%	< 1%	16%	55%	13%
49	Bournemouth	54.6	+0	< 1%	36%	17%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	20%	30%	4.3%
48	Chelsea	54.2	+9	< 1%	40%	18%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	12%	60%	4.3%
48	Brentford	53.2	+3	< 1%	20%	7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	18%	18%	1.5%
48	Fulham	53.1	-3	< 1%	16%	6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	14%	15%	1.5%
47	Everton	52.7	+0	< 1%	15%	5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	14%	14%	1.3%
46	Sunderland	50.3	-11	< 1%	2.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	3.8%	2.7%	< 1%
43	Crystal Palace	48.2	-7	< 1%	1.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	53%	< 1%
42	Newcastle	47.8	-4	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.0%	< 1%	< 1%
40	Leeds	45.9	-6	1.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
39	Forest	44.0	-5	1.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	21%
36	West Ham	40.1	-18	36%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
34	Tottenham	38.5	-12	61%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
20	Burnley	23.6	-38	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
17	Wolves	21.7	-39	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Important matches for EL race (EL or CL)
Newcastle vs Brighton (9.4%)	Home Win (46%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (30%)
Brighton	55%	68%	88%
Bournemouth	38%	35%	29%
Bournemouth vs Crystal Palace (8.6%)	Home Win (54%)	Draw (22%)	Away Win (24%)
Bournemouth	48%	24%	15%
Brighton	64%	71%	73%
Everton vs Man City (7%)	Home Win (34%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (42%)
Everton	29%	11%	6%
Brentford vs West Ham (6.5%)	Home Win (57%)	Draw (21%)	Away Win (21%)
Brentford	28%	10%	4.9%

PL: Man City vs Chelsea in FA cup final

Chelsea are missing Top-7 in 63% of the simulations, which means if they win the FA cup , it's quite likely that they have not already qualified to EL and that the 7th team in PL is going to Conference League rather than EL.

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
73	Arsenal	81.8	+44	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	100%	76%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
70	Man City	79.1	+41	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	100%	24%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
58	Man United	66.1	+15	< 1%	99.99%	99.86%	98.7%	83%	< 1%	< 1%	1.2%	98.7%
58	Aston Villa	64.5	+6	< 1%	99.98%	99.78%	97.7%	56%	< 1%	< 1%	1.2%	98.8%
58	Liverpool	64.3	+14	< 1%	99.95%	99.58%	97.1%	61%	< 1%	< 1%	2.8%	97.1%
50	Brighton	56.2	+10	< 1%	67%	44%	3.7%	< 1%	< 1%	17%	53%	12%
49	Bournemouth	54.6	+0	< 1%	33%	15%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	19%	28%	3.7%
48	Chelsea	54.2	+9	< 1%	37%	17%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	12%	59%	3.8%
48	Brentford	54.1	+4	< 1%	30%	14%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%	20%	26%	3.3%
48	Fulham	53.1	-3	< 1%	15%	5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	14%	13%	1.2%
47	Everton	52.7	+0	< 1%	14%	4.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	13%	12%	1.1%
46	Sunderland	50.3	-11	< 1%	2.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	3.4%	2.3%	< 1%
43	Crystal Palace	48.2	-7	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	53%	< 1%
42	Newcastle	47.8	-4	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
40	Leeds	45.9	-6	1.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
39	Forest	44.0	-5	1.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	20%
36	West Ham	40.1	-18	36%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
34	Tottenham	38.5	-12	61%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
20	Burnley	23.6	-38	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
17	Wolves	21.7	-39	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Titles

Team	League	FA Cup	League Cup	Europe
Arsenal	76%			44%
Man City	24%	64%	100%
Aston Villa				46%
Chelsea		36%
Crystal Palace				52%
Forest				20%

 

PL: Bottom teams win

Spurs, Hammers, and Forest all won in the relegation race. In the simulations teams probably need 39-42 points to be safe and stay up. Next Spurs travel to Villa Park, while West Ham go to Brentford for a London derby.

In the top, Arsenal won with one-nil. On average they finish 2.7 points ahead of City. They win the remaining four matches and finish on 85 points in 20% of the simulations and when they do that they win the league in 98%. City on the other hand, win all remaining matches in 4% of the simulations and when they do that, they win the league in 91%. In other words, in the simulations the two top leams have it very much in their own hands.  

Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
73	Arsenal	81.8	+44	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	100%	76%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
70	Man City	79.1	+41	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	100%	24%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
58	Man United	66.1	+15	< 1%	99.99%	99.86%	98.7%	83%	< 1%	< 1%	1.2%	98.7%
58	Aston Villa	64.5	+6	< 1%	99.98%	99.78%	97.7%	56%	< 1%	< 1%	1.2%	98.8%
58	Liverpool	64.3	+14	< 1%	99.95%	99.58%	97.1%	61%	< 1%	< 1%	2.7%	97.1%
50	Brighton	56.2	+10	< 1%	67%	44%	3.7%	< 1%	< 1%	17%	51%	12%
49	Bournemouth	54.6	+0	< 1%	33%	15%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	19%	27%	3.7%
48	Chelsea	54.2	+9	< 1%	37%	17%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	15%	47%	3.8%
48	Brentford	54.1	+4	< 1%	30%	14%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%	19%	25%	3.3%
48	Fulham	53.1	-3	< 1%	15%	5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	13%	13%	1.2%
47	Everton	52.7	+0	< 1%	14%	4.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	13%	12%	1.1%
46	Sunderland	50.3	-11	< 1%	2.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	3.3%	2.2%	< 1%
43	Crystal Palace	48.2	-7	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	53%	< 1%
42	Newcastle	47.8	-4	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
40	Leeds	45.9	-6	1.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	13%	< 1%
39	Forest	44.0	-5	1.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	20%
36	West Ham	40.1	-18	36%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
34	Tottenham	38.5	-12	61%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
20	Burnley	23.6	-38	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
17	Wolves	21.7	-39	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Important matches for title race
Arsenal vs Fulham (8%)	Home Win (74%)	Draw (15%)	Away Win (10%)
Arsenal	82%	63%	52%
Man City	18%	37%	48%

	Arsenal			Man City
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
85	20%	20%	98.0%	4.0%	4.0%	91%
84	20%	< 1%	-	4.0%	< 1%	-
83	41%	22%	91%	13%	9%	71%
82	61%	20%	82%	23%	10%	49%
81	69%	9%	73%	30%	7%	36%
80	84%	15%	60%	47%	17%	24%
79	92%	8%	45%	60%	13%	12%
78	95.6%	3.5%	33%	70%	10%	7%
77	98.5%	2.9%	22%	83%	12%	3.3%
76	99.54%	1.0%	13%	90%	7%	1.1%
75	99.83%	< 1%	7%	94%	4.5%	< 1%
74	99.97%	< 1%	3%	97.6%	3.5%	< 1%
73	100%	< 1%	1%	99.02%	1.4%	< 1%
72	100%	< 1%	-	99.62%	< 1%	< 1%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is successful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for EL race (EL or CL)
Newcastle vs Brighton (9.6%)	Home Win (46%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (30%)
Brighton	49%	63%	84%
Bournemouth	34%	31%	26%
Brentford	31%	28%	23%
Man United vs Brentford (8.3%)	Home Win (55%)	Draw (22%)	Away Win (23%)
Brentford	18%	28%	51%
Brighton	66%	63%	56%
Bournemouth	33%	30%	25%
Bournemouth vs Crystal Palace (7.9%)	Home Win (54%)	Draw (22%)	Away Win (24%)
Bournemouth	43%	21%	13%
Brighton	60%	66%	68%
Brentford vs West Ham (7%)	Home Win (57%)	Draw (22%)	Away Win (21%)
Brentford	38%	18%	10%
Brighton	60%	66%	68%
Chelsea vs Forest (5.5%)	Home Win (54%)	Draw (22%)	Away Win (24%)
Chelsea	62%	42%	35%
Brighton	61%	65%	67%
Brentford	26%	30%	32%
Bournemouth	28%	33%	34%

 

Important matches for Europe race (ECL, EL or CL)
Bournemouth vs Crystal Palace (10.1%)	Home Win (54%)	Draw (22%)	Away Win (24%)
Bournemouth	65%	38%	26%
Brentford vs West Ham (9.8%)	Home Win (57%)	Draw (22%)	Away Win (21%)
Brentford	61%	34%	23%
Man United vs Brentford (9.1%)	Home Win (55%)	Draw (22%)	Away Win (23%)
Brentford	35%	49%	73%
Bournemouth	53%	49%	43%
Everton	28%	25%	20%
Newcastle vs Brighton (7.6%)	Home Win (46%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (30%)
Brighton	70%	82%	95%
Newcastle	2.4%	< 1%	< 1%
Chelsea vs Forest (7.3%)	Home Win (54%)	Draw (22%)	Away Win (24%)
Chelsea	78%	56%	46%

Important matches for avoiding relegation
Aston Villa vs Tottenham (9.7%)	Home Win (66%)	Draw (19%)	Away Win (16%)
Tottenham	31%	42%	68%
West Ham	71%	61%	39%
Brentford vs West Ham (9.6%)	Home Win (57%)	Draw (22%)	Away Win (21%)
West Ham	55%	66%	87%
Tottenham	47%	37%	19%

	Tottenham			West Ham			Forest			Leeds
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
48	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	100%	11%	7%	100%	24%	5%	100%
47	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	14%	3.4%	100%	42%	17%	100%
46	< 1%	< 1%	100%	1.9%	1.5%	99.9%	28%	14%	100%	58%	16%	100%
45	< 1%	< 1%	-	6%	3.8%	99.97%	44%	15%	>99.99%	67%	10%	>99.99%
44	2.3%	1.8%	99.4%	8%	2.0%	99.5%	53%	9%	99.98%	82%	15%	99.92%
43	7%	4.7%	97.2%	17%	10%	96.1%	72%	18%	99.83%	92%	9%	99.1%
42	9%	2.3%	90%	30%	13%	93%	85%	13%	98.8%	95.3%	3.7%	97.9%
41	21%	11%	76%	39%	8%	82%	90%	6%	96.4%	98.8%	3.5%	88%
40	36%	15%	64%	58%	20%	66%	97.1%	7%	90%	100%	1.2%	65%
39	44%	9%	43%	76%	17%	56%	100%	2.9%	76%	100%	< 1%	-
38	64%	20%	24%	83%	8%	37%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-
37	80%	16%	17%	94%	11%	20%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-
36	86%	7%	6%	100%	6%	13%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-
35	95.6%	9%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-
34	100%	4.4%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-
33	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is successful, if they finish with X points

 

PL: Forest out of the woods

Forest thrashed Sunderland and the relegation battle is thereby a head-to-head bnattle between Hammers and Spurs. All their remaining matches are important but Tottenham's trip up to already relegated Wolverhampton is an opportunity.

Below are the stats for the three upcoming matches and their chances given how manu points they finish on.  

Important matches for avoiding relegation
Wolves vs Tottenham (11%)	Home Win (42%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (34%)
Tottenham	24%	33%	55%
West Ham	76%	68%	47%
West Ham vs Everton (10.7%)	Home Win (41%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (35%)
West Ham	79%	60%	49%
Tottenham	23%	41%	51%
Brentford vs West Ham (7.5%)	Home Win (57%)	Draw (21%)	Away Win (21%)
West Ham	56%	66%	83%
Tottenham	44%	35%	19%

	Tottenham			West Ham
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
46	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
45	< 1%	< 1%	-	2.6%	1.7%	99.9%
44	< 1%	< 1%	99.7%	3.8%	1.2%	99.8%
43	2.8%	1.8%	98.8%	9%	5%	98.5%
42	4.0%	1.2%	94%	16%	7%	97.0%
41	10%	6%	87%	23%	6%	92%
40	17%	8%	79%	37%	15%	83%
39	24%	7%	63%	51%	14%	76%
38	39%	15%	49%	62%	11%	61%
37	53%	14%	38%	77%	15%	48%
36	63%	11%	23%	87%	10%	37%
35	78%	15%	12%	93%	5%	21%
34	88%	10%	7%	98.0%	5%	12%
33	93%	5%	2.0%	100%	2.0%	7%
32	98.1%	4.9%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-
31	100%	1.9%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-
30	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is successful, if they finish with X points

 Coming Matches

Home		Draw		Away
Fulham	38%	24%	38%	Aston Villa
Liverpool	62%	20%	18%	Crystal Palace
West Ham	41%	24%	35%	Everton
Wolves	42%	24%	34%	Tottenham
Arsenal	72%	16%	12%	Newcastle
Man United	55%	22%	23%	Brentford
Leeds	63%	20%	17%	Burnley
Brentford	57%	21%	21%	West Ham
Newcastle	46%	24%	30%	Brighton
Wolves	46%	24%	30%	Sunderland

Most likely combo of teams in CL

61%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
18%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Forest, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
5.0%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Brighton, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
2.6%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Brighton, Man City, Man United
1.8%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Bournemouth, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
1.7%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
1.6%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Everton, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
1.2%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Brentford, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
1.1%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Chelsea, Man City, Man United
1.1%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Brentford, Man City, Man United

Most likely combo of teams being relegated

63%	Burnley, Tottenham, Wolves
36%	Burnley, West Ham, Wolves

PL: Man City top of the table.

Man City with an early winner against Burnley meaning they go top of the table with same points and goal difference as Arsenal, but three more goals. Next in the title race is Arsenal hosting the Magpies, and as you can see in the table below there is a 30% swing between a win and a loss, so obviously a crucial match. In the simulations, Man City drop on average 5.9 points while Arsenal drop 3.9 points, but these simulations do not take into account that some of the opponents may be unmotivated or that title contenders might get nervous.

Bournemouth dropped the win in the last minute losing two points in the race for Europa. They still get 24% to get to EL.

Important matches for title race
Arsenal vs Newcastle (8%)	Home Win (72%)	Draw (16%)	Away Win (12%)
Arsenal	77%	59%	47%
Man City	23%	41%	53%

	Arsenal			Man City
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
85	14%	14%	98.5%	4.0%	4.0%	91%
84	14%	< 1%	-	4.0%	< 1%	-
83	33%	19%	93%	13%	9%	74%
82	49%	16%	84%	23%	10%	57%
81	59%	10%	74%	30%	7%	45%
80	75%	17%	63%	47%	17%	31%
79	85%	9%	48%	60%	13%	19%
78	91%	6%	35%	70%	10%	12%
77	95.8%	5%	25%	83%	12%	6%
76	98.0%	2.2%	15%	90%	7%	3.0%
75	99.12%	1.1%	9%	94%	4.5%	1.4%
74	99.73%	< 1%	5%	97.6%	3.5%	< 1%
73	99.92%	< 1%	2%	99.03%	1.4%	< 1%
72	99.98%	< 1%	< 1%	99.63%	< 1%	< 1%
71	>99.99%	< 1%	< 1%	99.93%	< 1%	< 1%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is successful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for EL race (EL or CL)
Newcastle vs Brighton (10.2%)	Home Win (46%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (30%)
Brighton	44%	58%	81%
Newcastle	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%
Bournemouth	30%	27%	22%
Man United vs Brentford (7.8%)	Home Win (55%)	Draw (22%)	Away Win (23%)
Brentford	15%	25%	47%
Brighton	62%	59%	52%
Bournemouth	29%	26%	22%
West Ham vs Everton (7.2%)	Home Win (41%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (35%)
Everton	12%	19%	40%
Brighton	62%	60%	54%
Brentford vs West Ham (6.5%)	Home Win (57%)	Draw (21%)	Away Win (21%)
Brentford	34%	15%	9%