Group Final in Group K between Colombia and Portugal

Important group final in Group K. Colombia only need a draw against Portugal to win the group, which likely means knockout match against Ghana. The runner-up gets the the runner-up from Group L, likely Croatia. In the other match DR Congo clinches advancement if they beat Uzbekistan.

In Group L, England  wanna win the group to get slightly easier bracket. Croatia need a point against Ghana to secure a spot in the knockout stage.

In Group J, Austria and Algeria play a decider. Both countries are through with a draw, so smells like a draw

With nine groups finished, we have four teams with 4p. Senegal is currently ranked 5th with 3p and +2 and thus also through to the next round. Iran is 6th with 3p and 3-3, which translates to 93%. South Korea is 7th with 3p and 2-3, which translates to 45%. Scotland is 8th with 3p and 1-4, which needs a miracle to suffice. Uruguay are 9th and eliminated.

 

Group J				Probabilities
Team	Pld	GD	Pts	xPts	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	Last 32
Argentina	2	+5	6	8.54				100%	100%
Austria	2	0	3	4.65		29%	71%		83%
Algeria	2	-2	3	4.11		71%	29%		53%
Jordan	2	-3	0	0.33	100%

Austria

Algeria - Austria
+4	+3	2-0	3-1	+1	Draw	Away
	0.7%	2.0%	3%	72%	100%	100%	Arg - Jor
	0.7%	2.0%	3%	72%	100%	100%	83%	Home
	1%	2%	3%	71%	100%	100%	83%	Draw
	1%	2%	3%	72%	100%	100%	83%	Away

Algeria

Algeria - Austria
Home	Draw	0-1	1-2	2-3	-2	-3	-4
100%	100%	0.2%	0.5%	1.0%				Arg - Jor
100%	100%	0.2%	0.5%	1.0%				53%	Home
100%	100%	0.2%	0.4%	1%				53%	Draw
100%	100%	0.3%	0.4%	1%				53%	Away

Group K				Probabilities
Team	Pld	GD	Pts	xPts	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	Last 32
Colombia	2	+3	6	7.35			39%	61%	100%
Portugal	2	+5	4	5.41		0.30%	61%	39%	100%
DR Congo	2	-1	1	2.15	46%	54%	0.30%		30%
Uzbekistan	2	-7	0	1.62	54%	46%			0.28%

DR Congo

DR Congo - Uzbekistan
Home	Draw	Away
100%			Por - Col
100%			30%	Home
100%			30%	Draw
100%			30%	Away

Uzbekistan

DR Congo - Uzbekistan
Home	Draw	-1	-2	-3	-4
					0.9%	Por - Col
					1%	0.30%	Home
					1%	0.3%	Draw
					0.8%	0.27%	Away

Factors influencing which team wins the tournament
2.07; Portugal have 5.6% if they win against Colombia; otherwise 3.3%
2.03; Colombia have 5.1% if they draw (or win) against Portugal; otherwise 3%

Group L				Probabilities
Team	Pld	GD	Pts	xPts	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	Last 32
England	2	+2	4	6.24		0.28%	29%	71%	100%
Ghana	2	+1	4	4.33		81%	16%	3.9%	100%
Croatia	2	-1	3	5.55		19%	56%	25%	95.5%
Panama	2	-2	0	0.58	100%

Croatia

Croatia - Ghana
Home	Draw	-1	-3	-4
100%	100%	39%			Eng - Pan
100%	100%	39%			95.5%	Home
100%	100%	38%		-	95.5%	Draw
100%	100%	38%		-	95.4%	Away

Factors influencing which team wins the tournament
1.16; England have 6.4% if they win against Panama; otherwise 4.5%

Last 32		Last 16		Quarter-finals		Semi-finals		Final		Champions
Germany (100%)
		Germany (61%) Paraguay (39%)
Paraguay (100%)
				France (62%) Germany (23%) Paraguay (11%)
France (100%)
		France (86%)
Sweden (100%)
						France (46%) Netherlands (20%) Germany (13%)
South Africa (100%)
		Canada (78%) South Africa (22%)
Canada (100%)
				Netherlands (44%) Canada (36%) Morocco (17%)
Netherlands (100%)
		Netherlands (67%) Morocco (33%)
Morocco (100%)
								Spain (37%) France (25%) Netherlands (8%) Germany (5%)
Portugal (61%) Colombia (39%)
		Portugal (36%) Croatia (24%) Colombia (23%) England (16%)
Croatia (56%) England (29%) Ghana (16%)
				Spain (62%) Portugal (12%) Colombia (8%)
Spain (100%)
		Spain (86%)
Austria (71%) Algeria (29%)
						Spain (52%) Belgium (9%) Portugal (9%)
United States (100%)
		United States (75%) Bosnia and Herzegovina (25%)
Bosnia and Herzegovina (100%)
				Belgium (36%) United States (36%) Senegal (9%)
Belgium (100%)
		Belgium (59%) South Korea (16%) Senegal (15%)
South Korea (45%) Senegal (28%) Algeria (16%)
										Spain (25%) Argentina (23%) France (14%) England (6%)
Brazil (100%)
		Brazil (60%) Japan (40%)
Japan (100%)
				Brazil (38%) Norway (35%) Japan (22%)
Ivory Coast (100%)
		Norway (76%) Ivory Coast (24%)
Norway (100%)
						Brazil (21%) England (20%) Norway (16%) Ecuador (14%) Japan (10%)
Mexico (100%)
		Ecuador (59%) Mexico (41%)
Ecuador (100%)
				England (33%) Ecuador (29%) Mexico (16%) Senegal (12%)
England (71%) Croatia (25%)
		England (52%) Senegal (25%) Croatia (16%)
Senegal (67%) DR Congo (30%)
								Argentina (40%) England (10%) Brazil (9%) Colombia (8%)
Argentina (100%)
		Argentina (95%)
Cape Verde (100%)
				Argentina (82%) Australia (12%)
Australia (100%)
		Australia (61%) Egypt (39%)
Egypt (100%)
						Argentina (58%) Colombia (14%) Portugal (9%)
Switzerland (100%)
		Switzerland (65%) Iran (32%)
Iran (93%)
				Colombia (34%) Switzerland (28%) Portugal (22%) Iran (9%)
Colombia (61%) Portugal (39%)
		Colombia (52%) Portugal (33%) Ghana (7%)
Ghana (81%) Croatia (15%)

What is needed to qualify as 3rd team?

Pts	GD	Probability	Last 32	Chance
4	-	46%	46%	100%
3	3-3	8%	8%	93%
3	6-7	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	72%
3	5-6	0.22%	0.16%	72%
3	4-5	0.59%	0.42%	72%
3	3-4	0.53%	0.38%	71%
3	2-3	8%	3.7%	45%
3	5-7	0.14%	< 0.1%	22%
3	4-6	0.44%	< 0.1%	18%
3	3-5	0.51%	< 0.1%	13%
3	-3	11%	< 0.1%	0.52%
2	-	10%

Group B		point	2	3										4
		GD	-	-3	3-5	4-6	5-7	2-3	3-4	4-5	5-6	6-7	3-3	-
	3rd	100%												100%
	3rd & Last 32	100%												100%
Switzerland	3rd
	3rd & Last 32
Canada	3rd
	3rd & Last 32
Bosnia and Herzegovina	3rd	100%												100%
	3rd & Last 32	100%												100%
Qatar	3rd
	3rd & Last 32
Group D		point	2	3										4
		GD	-	-3	3-5	4-6	5-7	2-3	3-4	4-5	5-6	6-7	3-3	-
	3rd	100%												100%
	3rd & Last 32	100%												100%
United States	3rd
	3rd & Last 32
Australia	3rd
	3rd & Last 32
Paraguay	3rd	100%												100%
	3rd & Last 32	100%												100%
Turkey	3rd
	3rd & Last 32
Group E		point	2	3										4
		GD	-	-3	3-5	4-6	5-7	2-3	3-4	4-5	5-6	6-7	3-3	-
	3rd	100%												100%
	3rd & Last 32	100%												100%
Germany	3rd
	3rd & Last 32
Ivory Coast	3rd
	3rd & Last 32
Ecuador	3rd	100%												100%
	3rd & Last 32	100%												100%
Curaçao	3rd
	3rd & Last 32
Group F		point	2	3										4
		GD	-	-3	3-5	4-6	5-7	2-3	3-4	4-5	5-6	6-7	3-3	-
	3rd	100%												100%
	3rd & Last 32	100%												100%
Netherlands	3rd
	3rd & Last 32
Japan	3rd
	3rd & Last 32
Sweden	3rd	100%												100%
	3rd & Last 32	100%												100%
Tunisia	3rd
	3rd & Last 32
Group I		point	2	3										4
		GD	-	-3	3-5	4-6	5-7	2-3	3-4	4-5	5-6	6-7	3-3	-
	3rd	100%
	3rd & Last 32	100%
France	3rd
	3rd & Last 32
Norway	3rd
	3rd & Last 32
Senegal	3rd	100%
	3rd & Last 32	100%
Iraq	3rd
	3rd & Last 32
Group L		point	2	3										4
		GD	-	-3	3-5	4-6	5-7	2-3	3-4	4-5	5-6	6-7	3-3	-
	3rd	100%		1.5%	1.9%	2.2%	0.8%							93%
	3rd & Last 32	95%		0.4%	0.7%	0.9%	0.3%							93%
England	3rd	0.3%												0.3%
	3rd & Last 32	0.3%												0.3%
Ghana	3rd	81%												81%
	3rd & Last 32	81%												81%
Croatia	3rd	19%		1.5%	1.9%	2.2%	0.8%							12%
	3rd & Last 32	15%		0.4%	0.7%	0.9%	0.3%							12%
Panama	3rd
	3rd & Last 32
Group G		point	2	3										4
		GD	-	-3	3-5	4-6	5-7	2-3	3-4	4-5	5-6	6-7	3-3	-
	3rd	100%											100%
	3rd & Last 32	93%											93%
Belgium	3rd
	3rd & Last 32
Egypt	3rd
	3rd & Last 32
Iran	3rd	100%											100%
	3rd & Last 32	93%											93%
New Zealand	3rd
	3rd & Last 32
Group A		point	2	3										4
		GD	-	-3	3-5	4-6	5-7	2-3	3-4	4-5	5-6	6-7	3-3	-
	3rd	100%						100%
	3rd & Last 32	45%						45%
Mexico	3rd
	3rd & Last 32
South Africa	3rd
	3rd & Last 32
South Korea	3rd	100%						100%
	3rd & Last 32	45%						45%
Czechia	3rd
	3rd & Last 32
Group J		point	2	3										4
		GD	-	-3	3-5	4-6	5-7	2-3	3-4	4-5	5-6	6-7	3-3	-
	3rd	100%		25%	4.2%	3.1%	0.9%		6.3%	7.1%	2.6%	0.5%		24%
	3rd & Last 32	36%		0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%		4.5%	5.1%	1.9%	0.4%		24%
Argentina	3rd
	3rd & Last 32
Austria	3rd	29%		3.1%	4.2%	3.1%	0.9%		6.3%	7.1%	2.6%	0.5%
	3rd & Last 32	12%		< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%		4.5%	5.1%	1.9%	0.4%
Algeria	3rd	71%		22%										24%
	3rd & Last 32	24%		0.1%										24%
Jordan	3rd
	3rd & Last 32
Group K		point	2	3										4
		GD	-	-3	3-5	4-6	5-7	2-3	3-4	4-5	5-6	6-7	3-3	-
	3rd	100%	24%	2.6%										30%
	3rd & Last 32	31%		< 0.1%										30%
Colombia	3rd
	3rd & Last 32
Portugal	3rd	0.3%												0.3%
	3rd & Last 32	0.3%												0.3%
DR Congo	3rd	54%	24%											30%
	3rd & Last 32	30%												30%
Uzbekistan	3rd	46%		2.6%
	3rd & Last 32	0.3%		< 0.1%
Group C		point	2	3										4
		GD	-	-3	3-5	4-6	5-7	2-3	3-4	4-5	5-6	6-7	3-3	-
	3rd	100%		100%
	3rd & Last 32	< 0.1%		< 0.1%
Brazil	3rd
	3rd & Last 32
Morocco	3rd
	3rd & Last 32
Scotland	3rd	100%		100%
	3rd & Last 32	< 0.1%		< 0.1%
Haiti	3rd
	3rd & Last 32
Group H		point	2	3										4
		GD	-	-3	3-5	4-6	5-7	2-3	3-4	4-5	5-6	6-7	3-3	-
	3rd	100%	100%
	3rd & Last 32
Spain	3rd
	3rd & Last 32
Cape Verde	3rd
	3rd & Last 32
Uruguay	3rd	100%	100%
	3rd & Last 32
Saudi Arabia	3rd
	3rd & Last 32