PL: City must win when Palace visit

City chances drop below 2% if they fail to win against a visiting Palace. In our simulations, City win 48% of the simulations when they win the three remaining matches.

Spurs chances to survive reduced from 85% to 81% with a draw against Leeds.

Important matches for title race
Man City vs Crystal Palace (7.3%)	Home Win (68%)	Draw (18%)	Away Win (14%)
Man City	14%	1.8%	1.0%
Arsenal	86%	98.2%	99.0%

	Arsenal			Man City
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
85	47%	47%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-
84	47%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
83	71%	24%	88%	16%	16%	48%
82	93%	22%	84%	16%	< 1%	-
81	95.5%	2.2%	65%	35%	20%	7%
80	98.9%	3.3%	43%	59%	23%	4.2%
79	100%	1.1%	34%	66%	8%	1.1%
78	100%	< 1%	-	83%	17%	< 1%
77	100%	< 1%	-	93%	10%	< 1%
76	100%	< 1%	-	96.0%	3.0%	< 1%
75	100%	< 1%	-	99.01%	3.0%	< 1%
74	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	< 1%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is successful, if they finish with X points

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
79	Arsenal	83.5	+45	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	100%	90%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
74	Man City	79.6	+42	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	100%	10%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
65	Man United	68.1	+16	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
59	Liverpool	62.2	+13	< 1%	100%	99.85%	96.6%	69%	< 1%	< 1%	3.2%	96.7%
59	Aston Villa	61.3	+3	< 1%	100%	99.22%	90%	31%	< 1%	< 1%	3.1%	96.8%
55	Bournemouth	57.5	+4	< 1%	91%	63%	10%	< 1%	< 1%	9%	54%	34%
53	Brighton	55.8	+10	< 1%	75%	32%	3.6%	< 1%	< 1%	18%	55%	17%
51	Brentford	53.6	+4	< 1%	17%	3.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	31%	24%	1.3%
49	Chelsea	52.4	+7	< 1%	11%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	15%	48%	< 1%
49	Everton	52.3	+1	< 1%	5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	16%	9%	< 1%
48	Fulham	51.1	-6	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	6%	2.1%	< 1%
48	Sunderland	50.0	-10	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.6%	< 1%	< 1%
46	Newcastle	49.1	-1	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%
44	Leeds	46.7	-5	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
44	Crystal Palace	46.4	-10	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	64%	< 1%
43	Forest	45.5	-2	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
38	Tottenham	40.4	-10	19%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
36	West Ham	38.4	-21	81%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
21	Burnley	22.9	-38	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
18	Wolves	20.4	-42	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Most likely combo of teams in CL

46%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
30%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Bournemouth, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
15%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Brighton, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
2.4%	Arsenal, Bournemouth, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
2.2%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Bournemouth, Man City, Man United
1.3%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Brentford, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
1.1%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Brighton, Man City, Man United

Most likely combo of teams being relegated

81%	Burnley, West Ham, Wolves
19%	Burnley, Tottenham, Wolves

 

 

 

 

PL: Spurs host Leeds in key match

A win for Spurs would that they are likely (>95%) surviving the relegation scare. With a draw the probability is down to 81% and with a loss they have 71%. Leeds are mathematically safe after West Ham's loss against Arsenal.

Important matches for avoiding relegation
Tottenham vs Leeds (14.8%)	Home Win (46%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (30%)
West Ham	3.6%	19%	29%
Tottenham	96.4%	81%	71%

	West Ham			Tottenham
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
46	< 1%	< 1%	-	4.2%	4.2%	100%
45	< 1%	< 1%	-	4.2%	< 1%	-
44	< 1%	< 1%	-	13%	9%	100%
43	< 1%	< 1%	-	30%	17%	100%
42	9%	9%	64%	36%	6%	100%
41	9%	< 1%	-	58%	21%	91%
40	24%	14%	23%	77%	19%	91%
39	56%	32%	17%	84%	6%	76%
38	61%	5%	6%	94%	11%	44%
37	82%	21%	< 1%	100%	6%	39%
36	100%	18%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-
35	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is successful, if they finish with X points

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
79	Arsenal	83.5	+45	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	100%	90%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
74	Man City	79.6	+42	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	100%	10%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
65	Man United	68.1	+16	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
59	Liverpool	62.2	+13	< 1%	100%	99.85%	96.6%	69%	< 1%	< 1%	3.2%	96.7%
59	Aston Villa	61.3	+3	< 1%	100%	99.24%	90%	31%	< 1%	< 1%	3.1%	96.8%
55	Bournemouth	57.5	+4	< 1%	91%	63%	10%	< 1%	< 1%	9%	54%	34%
53	Brighton	55.8	+10	< 1%	75%	33%	3.6%	< 1%	< 1%	18%	55%	17%
51	Brentford	53.6	+4	< 1%	17%	3.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	31%	24%	1.3%
49	Chelsea	52.4	+7	< 1%	11%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	15%	48%	< 1%
49	Everton	52.3	+1	< 1%	5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	16%	9%	< 1%
48	Fulham	51.1	-6	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	6%	2.2%	< 1%
48	Sunderland	50.0	-10	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.6%	< 1%	< 1%
46	Newcastle	49.1	-1	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%
43	Leeds	46.9	-5	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
44	Crystal Palace	46.5	-10	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	64%	< 1%
43	Forest	45.5	-2	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
37	Tottenham	41.0	-9	15%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
36	West Ham	38.4	-21	85%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
21	Burnley	22.9	-38	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
18	Wolves	20.4	-42	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Most likely combo of teams in CL

46%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
30%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Bournemouth, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
15%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Brighton, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
2.4%	Arsenal, Bournemouth, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
2.2%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Bournemouth, Man City, Man United
1.3%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Brentford, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
1.1%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Brighton, Man City, Man United

Most likely combo of teams being relegated

85%	Burnley, West Ham, Wolves
15%	Burnley, Tottenham, Wolves

 

 

PL: The Hammers versus the Gunners

A crucial match both for the top and bottom today. Arsenal need to win to keep their advantage, while West Ham need points in their chase for a new contract.

Aston Villa have the chance to practically secure a top-5 and thereby a place in CL next season. Everton are chasing points against a Palace in their chase for a place in Europe, while Newcastle have to beat Forest to keep their European dreams alive. 

Important matches for title race
West Ham vs Arsenal (14.5%)	Home Win (19%)	Draw (21%)	Away Win (60%)
Arsenal	60%	73%	91%
Man City	40%	27%	9%

Important matches for avoiding relegation
West Ham vs Arsenal (13.7%)	Home Win (19%)	Draw (21%)	Away Win (60%)
West Ham	50%	22%	15%
Tottenham	51%	78%	85%

 

 

Important matches for CL race
Burnley vs Aston Villa (5.4%)	Home Win (26%)	Draw (23%)	Away Win (51%)
Bournemouth	40%	34%	21%
Aston Villa	93%	96.8%	99.3%
Brighton	19%	17%	10%

 

Important matches for EL race (EL or CL)
Crystal Palace vs Everton (8.5%)	Home Win (47%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (30%)
Everton	2.8%	8%	26%

Important matches for Europe race (ECL, EL or CL)
Crystal Palace vs Everton (13.6%)	Home Win (47%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (30%)
Everton	12%	23%	51%
Brentford	57%	52%	43%
Brighton	91%	90%	85%
Forest vs Newcastle (4%)	Home Win (48%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (28%)
Newcastle	< 1%	1.5%	10%

La Liga clinches extra CL spot

We have the following finals

Champions League: Arsenal - PSG

Europa League: Aston Villa - Freiburg

Conference League: Crystal Palace - Rayo Vallecano

 

Premier League and La Liga have secured an extra spot in next season's Champions League.

Which league gets the extra CL spot

Premier League get one of the extra CL spots. The other one goes to Portugal, Spain or Germany and it's an extremely race. Portugal and Spain need to have a team in the finals to have a chance, which means that Portugal need that Braga win their tie against Freiburg, while Spain need that Rayo Vallecano win advance past Strasbourg. Germany's chances are slim but not zero if Freiburg are knocked out tonight against Braga.

		Score
Country	Probability	Average	Min	Max
ENG	100%	20.01	19.78	20.06
POR	34%	15.49	15.2	15.8
ESP	34%	15.63	15.5	15.81
GER	32%	15.58	15.36	15.79

Number of finalists from GER; 431 mbit

n	0	1
Probability	61%	39%
Chance if	4.1%	75%

Number of finalists from ESP; 369 mbit

n	0	1
Probability	43%	57%
Chance if	< 1%	60%

Number of finalists from POR; 328 mbit

n	0	1
Probability	39%	61%
Chance if	< 1%	56%

 

PL: City slip at Everton

City came back after 1-3 deficit and scored in the last minute to save an important point in title race. City now win 13% of the simulations; they win 60% if they win remaining matches, 22% if they take 10 points in the last four matches.

Forest won against Chelsea and are thus practically secure from relegation. Mathematically they need four more points to clinch a new contract.

Everton lost two points in the race to Europe and now have 23% chance to reach EL or Conference League. They likely need to take 6 or 7 points to reach that ticket to Europe.

 

Important matches for title race
West Ham vs Arsenal (10.7%)	Home Win (19%)	Draw (21%)	Away Win (60%)
Man City	29%	18%	6%
Arsenal	71%	82%	94%
Man City vs Brentford (7%)	Home Win (64%)	Draw (20%)	Away Win (17%)
Arsenal	82%	95%	97.3%
Man City	18%	5%	2.7%

	Arsenal			Man City
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
85	28%	28%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-
84	28%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
83	52%	24%	95.1%	10%	10%	60%
82	75%	22%	90%	10%	< 1%	-
81	81%	6%	82%	26%	16%	22%
80	92%	11%	66%	43%	17%	14%
79	97.8%	5%	51%	52%	9%	6%
78	98.9%	1.1%	37%	70%	19%	1.8%
77	99.78%	< 1%	22%	82%	12%	< 1%
76	100%	< 1%	13%	88%	6%	< 1%
75	100%	< 1%	-	95.2%	7%	< 1%
74	100%	< 1%	-	98.1%	2.9%	< 1%
73	100%	< 1%	-	99.13%	1.1%	< 1%
72	100%	< 1%	-	99.82%	< 1%	< 1%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is successful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for avoiding relegation
Tottenham vs Leeds (15.5%)	Home Win (46%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (30%)
Tottenham	91%	71%	61%
West Ham	10%	29%	39%
West Ham vs Arsenal (13.7%)	Home Win (19%)	Draw (21%)	Away Win (60%)
West Ham	50%	22%	15%
Tottenham	51%	78%	85%

	West Ham			Tottenham
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
46	< 1%	< 1%	-	4.2%	4.2%	100%
45	1.8%	1.8%	98.9%	4.2%	< 1%	-
44	1.8%	< 1%	-	13%	9%	99.4%
43	7%	4.8%	73%	30%	17%	98.8%
42	18%	12%	64%	36%	6%	94%
41	22%	4.0%	42%	58%	22%	82%
40	42%	19%	23%	77%	19%	77%
39	66%	24%	16%	84%	7%	58%
38	73%	7%	6%	94%	11%	34%
37	89%	16%	< 1%	100%	6%	27%
36	100%	11%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-
35	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is successful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for CL race
Fulham vs Bournemouth (6.6%)	Home Win (43%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (33%)
Bournemouth	4.4%	8%	20%
Fulham	2.5%	< 1%	< 1%
Aston Villa	98.3%	97.5%	93%
Brighton	10%	10%	6%
Burnley vs Aston Villa (4.4%)	Home Win (26%)	Draw (23%)	Away Win (51%)
Aston Villa	91%	96.2%	99.52%
Bournemouth	16%	11%	8%
Brighton	12%	9%	6%
Brentford	6%	4.5%	3.2%

Important matches for EL race (EL or CL)
Fulham vs Bournemouth (23.2%)	Home Win (43%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (33%)
Bournemouth	37%	55%	84%
Fulham	26%	7%	< 1%
Man City vs Brentford (11.3%)	Home Win (64%)	Draw (20%)	Away Win (17%)
Brentford	26%	44%	72%
Bournemouth	60%	55%	46%
Brighton	57%	52%	43%
Brighton vs Wolves (11.1%)	Home Win (68%)	Draw (18%)	Away Win (14%)
Brighton	65%	36%	21%
Brentford	34%	42%	47%
Bournemouth	53%	62%	65%
Crystal Palace vs Everton (8.8%)	Home Win (47%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (30%)
Everton	2.5%	9%	27%

Important matches for Europe race (ECL, EL or CL)
Fulham vs Bournemouth (26.1%)	Home Win (43%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (33%)
Bournemouth	57%	77%	96.4%
Fulham	44%	16%	5%
Crystal Palace vs Everton (13.3%)	Home Win (47%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (30%)
Everton	9%	21%	49%
Brighton vs Wolves (11.6%)	Home Win (68%)	Draw (18%)	Away Win (14%)
Brighton	84%	58%	40%
Brentford	58%	64%	69%
Man City vs Brentford (9.8%)	Home Win (64%)	Draw (20%)	Away Win (17%)
Brentford	50%	68%	91%
Brighton	76%	72%	67%
Liverpool vs Chelsea (5.7%)	Home Win (58%)	Draw (21%)	Away Win (20%)
Chelsea	49%	57%	78%
Brentford	63%	60%	53%
Everton	25%	23%	18%
Brighton	76%	73%	69%

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
76	Arsenal	82.5	+45	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	100%	87%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
71	Man City	78.7	+41	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	100%	13%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
64	Man United	68.8	+16	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	99.88%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
58	Liverpool	63.2	+14	< 1%	>99.99%	99.84%	98.3%	68%	< 1%	< 1%	1.7%	98.3%
58	Aston Villa	62.1	+4	< 1%	99.99%	99.60%	95%	32%	< 1%	< 1%	3.4%	96.5%
52	Bournemouth	55.7	+2	< 1%	61%	36%	3.7%	< 1%	< 1%	18%	46%	10%
50	Brighton	55.0	+8	< 1%	58%	32%	2.0%	< 1%	< 1%	20%	45%	9%
51	Brentford	54.3	+6	< 1%	40%	18%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%	23%	33%	4.2%
48	Fulham	52.6	-4	< 1%	13%	5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	12%	12%	1.1%
48	Everton	52.4	+0	< 1%	11%	3.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	12%	11%	< 1%
48	Chelsea	52.3	+6	< 1%	15%	5.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	10%	46%	< 1%
47	Sunderland	50.0	-11	< 1%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.8%	1.4%	< 1%
45	Newcastle	49.2	-2	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.9%	< 1%	< 1%
43	Crystal Palace	47.1	-9	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	62%	< 1%
43	Leeds	46.9	-5	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
42	Forest	46.2	-2	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	35%
37	Tottenham	41.0	-9	23%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
36	West Ham	39.2	-21	77%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
20	Burnley	22.9	-39	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
18	Wolves	21.0	-40	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Most likely combo of teams in CL

41%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
33%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Forest, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
8%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Bournemouth, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
7%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Brighton, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
3.2%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Brentford, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
1.1%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Fulham, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
1.1%	Arsenal, Bournemouth, Forest, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
1.0%	Arsenal, Bournemouth, Liverpool, Man City, Man United

Most likely combo of teams being relegated

77%	Burnley, West Ham, Wolves
23%	Burnley, Tottenham, Wolves

 

 

PL: Spurs win crucial 3 points at Villa Park

 West Ham are now relegated in 72% of simulations. They need to take 5 points in the last three matches to have >50% chance to survive. If they win all three matches they are still relegated in 0.6% of the simulations. Spurs need to take 2 points to have >50% to survive. If they take 6 points they survive in >99% of the simulations, as further detailed in table below.

Liverpool lost in the big red rivalry and are therefore yet to secure a spot in CL. They clinch CL in 97% of the simulations and another 4 points and they are 100% safe.

Important matches for avoiding relegation
Forest vs Newcastle (2.4%)	Home Win (47%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (29%)
Forest	99.75%	97.2%	93%

	West Ham			Tottenham			Forest
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
46	< 1%	< 1%	-	3.4%	3.4%	100%	28%	14%	100%
45	2.0%	2.0%	99.4%	3.4%	< 1%	-	44%	16%	100%
44	2.0%	< 1%	-	11%	8%	99.6%	53%	9%	99.96%
43	7%	5%	81%	27%	16%	99.1%	72%	18%	99.8%
42	19%	12%	73%	32%	5%	95%	85%	13%	97.8%
41	24%	4.2%	51%	54%	21%	83%	90%	6%	92%
40	43%	20%	28%	74%	21%	78%	97.1%	7%	85%
39	67%	24%	19%	81%	7%	58%	100%	2.9%	66%
38	74%	7%	7%	93%	12%	33%	100%	< 1%	-
37	90%	16%	< 1%	100%	7%	26%	100%	< 1%	-
36	100%	10%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-
35	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is successful, if they finish with X points

 

 

Important matches for CL race
Liverpool vs Chelsea (6.7%)	Home Win (57%)	Draw (22%)	Away Win (21%)
Liverpool	99.96%	97.4%	90%
Chelsea	3.0%	4.0%	14%
Fulham vs Bournemouth (6%)	Home Win (44%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (32%)
Bournemouth	3.7%	7%	19%
Fulham	2.0%	< 1%	< 1%
Aston Villa	98.0%	97.5%	94%

	Liverpool			Aston Villa			Forest			Bournemouth			Brighton			Chelsea			Brentford			Everton
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
67	10%	10%	100%	5%	5%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
66	10%	< 1%	-	5%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
65	26%	16%	100%	16%	10%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
64	49%	23%	100%	35%	20%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
63	56%	7%	100%	41%	6%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
62	76%	20%	100%	63%	22%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
61	89%	13%	99.6%	81%	18%	97.7%	< 1%	< 1%	-	3.7%	3.7%	58%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
60	93%	4.1%	94%	87%	6%	95.3%	< 1%	< 1%	-	3.7%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	2.9%	2.9%	51%	1.7%	1.7%	49%	< 1%	< 1%	-
59	98.1%	4.9%	75%	95.8%	9%	83%	< 1%	< 1%	-	12%	8%	28%	10%	10%	34%	2.9%	< 1%	-	1.7%	< 1%	-	2.2%	2.2%	27%
58	100%	1.9%	40%	100%	4.2%	71%	< 1%	< 1%	-	26%	14%	20%	10%	< 1%	-	10%	7%	19%	6%	4.5%	17%	2.2%	< 1%	-
57	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	32%	6%	11%	26%	16%	13%	22%	12%	13%	19%	12%	9%	8%	6%	8%
56	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	52%	21%	6%	48%	22%	8%	28%	6%	6%	22%	3.8%	5%	17%	9%	3.9%
55	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	72%	20%	2.4%	56%	7%	3.7%	47%	19%	3.1%	42%	20%	1.9%	22%	5%	1.4%
54	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	79%	7%	< 1%	75%	20%	< 1%	63%	16%	< 1%	69%	26%	< 1%	39%	17%	< 1%
53	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	92%	13%	< 1%	89%	14%	< 1%	72%	9%	< 1%	75%	7%	< 1%	55%	16%	< 1%
52	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	100%	8%	< 1%	93%	4.0%	< 1%	86%	14%	< 1%	90%	15%	< 1%	65%	10%	< 1%
51	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	1.0%	1.0%	29%	100%	< 1%	-	98.2%	4.8%	< 1%	93%	8%	< 1%	100%	10%	< 1%	81%	16%	< 1%
50	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	1.0%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	1.8%	< 1%	96.4%	3.0%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-	91%	10%	< 1%
49	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	4.2%	3.1%	30%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	99.13%	2.7%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-	95%	4.0%	< 1%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is successful, if they finish with X points

Most likely combo of teams in CL

44%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
27%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Forest, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
7%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Bournemouth, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
6%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Brighton, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
4.0%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
2.6%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Brentford, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
1.3%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Everton, Liverpool, Man City, Man United