1st Leg Quarterfinals Europa and Conference League

In EL, Aston Villa are favorites on the lower half and likely playing Betis or Freiburg. In Conference League, Crystal Palace are favorites and likely playing Rayo Vallecano or Mainz in the final.

The English teams have secured an extra CL spot, so there will be at least five teams from Premier League. The second spot is most likely going to La Liga (66%) or Bundesliga (27%). La Liga almost secure (99.5%) a spot if four Spanish teams reach semifinals and have good (75%) chance if three Spanish teams reach semifinals.

They have

Barcelona or Atletico (100%)

Real have 1-2 vs Bayern (16%)

Betis have 1-1 vs Braga (68%)

Celta have 0-3 vs Freiburg (11%)

Rayo Vallecano have 3-0 vs AEK (93%)

 

Bundesliga need all three teams going through to semifinals to have a reasonable chance (42%). They have 

Bayern have 2-1 vs Real (84%)

Freiburg have 3-0 vs Celta (89%)

Mainz have 2-0 vs Strasbourg (78%)

 

Europa League

Semi-finals		Final		Champions
Betis (68%) Braga (32%)
		Betis (40%) Freiburg (38%) Braga (16%)
Freiburg (89%)
				Aston Villa (44%) Betis (15%) Freiburg (12%)
Forest (58%) Porto (42%)
		Aston Villa (63%) Forest (20%)
Aston Villa (98%)

 

Conference League

Semi-finals		Final		Champions
Shakhtar (92%)
		Crystal Palace (80%) Shakhtar (16%)
Crystal Palace (96%)
				Crystal Palace (51%) Mainz (18%) Rayo Vallecano (17%)
Rayo Vallecano (93%)
		Rayo Vallecano (42%) Mainz (42%) Strasbourg (13%)
Mainz (78%) Strasbourg (22%)

 

Which countries get extra CL spots

		Score
Country	Probability	Average	Min	Max
ENG	100%	19.89	17.5	21.5
ESP	66%	16.57	15.06	19
GER	27%	15.96	14.29	17.71
POR	6%	14.92	14	19

Number of finalists from GER; 259 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	18%	42%	32%	8%
Chance if	1.4%	11%	46%	92%

Number of finalists from ESP; 247 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	22%	43%	28%	7%
Chance if	23%	65%	93%	99.8%

Number of semifinalists from ESP; 236 mbit

n	1	2	3	4	5
Probability	1.6%	26%	55%	15%	1.1%
Chance if	5%	29%	75%	99.5%	>99.99%

Number of semifinalists from POR; 169 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	37%	47%	16%	< 1%
Chance if	< 1%	< 1%	33%	82%

Number of finalists from POR; 160 mbit

n	0	1	2
Probability	68%	29%	3.5%
Chance if	< 1%	11%	84%

Number of semifinalists from GER; 129 mbit

n	1	2	3
Probability	7%	35%	58%
Chance if	< 1%	9%	42%

Number of tournament winners for ESP; 70 mbit

n	0	1	2
Probability	59%	34%	6%
Chance if	55%	80%	95.2%

Number of tournament winners for POR; 57 mbit

n	0	1
Probability	84%	16%
Chance if	2.8%	23%

Number of tournament winners for GER; 53 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	55%	37%	8%	< 1%
Chance if	18%	34%	58%	91%

 

 

 

 

CL: Quarterfinals 1st Leg

 

Semi-finals		Final		Champions
Paris SG (82%) Liverpool (18%)
		Bayern (50%) Paris SG (35%) Real Madrid (8%)
Bayern (84%)
				Arsenal (43%) Bayern (24%) Paris SG (15%)
Atletico (87%)
		Arsenal (72%) Atletico (20%)
Arsenal (93%)

 

CL: Probabilities after first quarterfinal night

Bayern are favorites after an away win against Real, and Arsenal are favorites against Sporting after a late winner against Sporting.

Semi-finals		Final		Champions
Paris SG (53%) Liverpool (47%)
		Bayern (51%) Paris SG (23%) Liverpool (18%)
Bayern (84%)
				Arsenal (39%) Bayern (24%) Barcelona (13%) Paris SG (9%)
Barcelona (67%) Atletico (33%)
		Arsenal (64%) Barcelona (26%)
Arsenal (93%)

 

PL: Three heavy points for Forest in relegation battle

 Hot Teams
Brighton: 12 points in the last 5 matches, 5.2 more than expected
Wolves: 8 points in the last 5 matches, 4.3 more than expected
Man United: 10 points in the last 5 matches, 2.9 more than expected
Everton: 9 points in the last 5 matches, 2.8 more than expected
Arsenal: 13 points in the last 5 matches, 2.6 more than expected

Cold Teams
Aston Villa: 4 points in the last 5 matches, 5.2 less than expected
Tottenham: 1 point in the last 5 matches, 5.1 less than expected
Leeds: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 3.3 less than expected
Bournemouth: 5 points in the last 5 matches, 3.3 less than expected
Chelsea: 4 points in the last 5 matches, 3.3 less than expected

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
70	Arsenal	84.8	+48	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	100%	97.1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
61	Man City	75.1	+37	< 1%	100%	>99.99%	>99.99%	99.94%	2.9%	< 1%	< 1%	>99.99%
55	Man United	66.2	+15	< 1%	99.71%	98.6%	94%	82%	< 1%	< 1%	6%	94%
54	Aston Villa	65.7	+8	< 1%	99.59%	98.2%	93%	76%	< 1%	< 1%	3.6%	96.1%
49	Liverpool	61.2	+12	< 1%	92%	82%	58%	26%	< 1%	3.8%	30%	63%
48	Chelsea	59.5	+18	< 1%	87%	72%	40%	14%	< 1%	6%	48%	40%
46	Brentford	55.8	+5	< 1%	46%	21%	7%	1.5%	< 1%	20%	38%	7%
46	Everton	54.9	+1	< 1%	31%	14%	4.2%	< 1%	< 1%	19%	27%	4.2%
43	Brighton	53.0	+5	< 1%	17%	7%	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%	16%	16%	1.6%
42	Newcastle	52.2	-0	< 1%	10%	3.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	13%	10%	< 1%
44	Fulham	52.0	-4	< 1%	9%	2.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	10%	8%	< 1%
42	Bournemouth	50.9	-4	< 1%	4.6%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	7%	4.7%	< 1%
43	Sunderland	50.1	-8	< 1%	2.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	4.2%	2.8%	< 1%
39	Crystal Palace	47.9	-7	< 1%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.2%	41%	< 1%
33	Leeds	42.5	-11	7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.2%	< 1%
32	Forest	40.9	-13	11%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	10%
30	Tottenham	39.4	-11	21%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
29	West Ham	37.1	-24	61%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.9%	< 1%
20	Burnley	26.8	-33	99.86%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
17	Wolves	24.4	-34	99.96%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Titles

Team	League	FA Cup	League Cup	Europe
Arsenal	97.1%	46%		38%
Man City	2.9%	21%	100%
Man United	< 1%
Aston Villa	< 1%			46%
Liverpool		10%		12%
Chelsea		19%
Crystal Palace				41%
Leeds		2.2%
Forest				10%
West Ham		1.9%

Simulated points for winner: 83 - 87
Simulated points for 17th team: 37 - 40
Most likely combo of teams in CL

42%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
24%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Chelsea, Man City, Man United
6%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
4.7%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Forest, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
3.8%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Brentford, Man City, Man United
3.6%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City
2.6%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Chelsea, Forest, Man City, Man United
2.4%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Everton, Man City, Man United
2.1%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Man United

Most likely combo of teams being relegated

61%	Burnley, West Ham, Wolves
21%	Burnley, Tottenham, Wolves
11%	Burnley, Forest, Wolves
7%	Burnley, Leeds, Wolves

Europa and Conference League

England (99.99%) and Spain (81%) strengthen their position to get an extra CL slot.

Below are the probabilities from 1,000,000 simulations. Betis vs Aston Villa is the most common EL final, while Crystal Palace vs Strasbourg is the most common final in Conference League.

Europa League

Quarter-finals		Semi-finals		Final		Champions
Braga (100%)
		Betis (62%) Braga (38%)
Betis (100%)
				Betis (36%) Celta (26%) Freiburg (21%) Braga (18%)
Freiburg (100%)
		Celta (54%) Freiburg (46%)
Celta (100%)
						Aston Villa (46%) Betis (13%) Forest (10%)
Porto (100%)
		Forest (53%) Porto (47%)
Forest (100%)
				Aston Villa (62%) Forest (17%) Porto (15%)
Bologna (100%)
		Aston Villa (84%)
Aston Villa (100%)

 

Conference League

Quarter-finals		Semi-finals		Final		Champions
Shakhtar (100%)
		Alkmaar (50%) Shakhtar (50%)
Alkmaar (100%)
				Crystal Palace (62%) Fiorentina (19%) Shakhtar (9%)
Crystal Palace (100%)
		Crystal Palace (72%) Fiorentina (28%)
Fiorentina (100%)
						Crystal Palace (41%) Strasbourg (18%) Fiorentina (9%) Mainz (9%)
Rayo Vallecano (100%)
		Rayo Vallecano (50%) AEK (50%)
AEK (100%)
				Strasbourg (38%) Mainz (21%) Rayo Vallecano (21%) AEK (20%)
Mainz (100%)
		Strasbourg (60%) Mainz (40%)
Strasbourg (100%)

Which countries get extra CL spots

		Score
Country	Probability	Average	Min	Max
ENG	99.99%	19.74	16.83	21.83
ESP	81%	16.83	14.69	19.63
POR	12%	15.23	13.6	19.8
GER	7%	15.04	13.43	17.71
ITA	< 1%	13.63	13.07	15.79

Number of semifinalists from ESP; 231 mbit

n	1	2	3	4	5
Probability	5%	24%	38%	26%	7%
Chance if	10%	58%	89%	98.5%	99.95%

Number of semifinalists from POR; 200 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	27%	46%	24%	3.4%
Chance if	< 1%	2.2%	33%	76%

Number of finalists from POR; 181 mbit

n	0	1	2
Probability	64%	31%	4.6%
Chance if	1.5%	22%	81%

Number of finalists from ESP; 169 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4
Probability	17%	44%	30%	8%	< 1%
Chance if	40%	83%	96.1%	99.5%	99.9%

Number of semifinalists from GER; 133 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	13%	39%	37%	11%
Chance if	< 1%	< 1%	7%	43%

Number of finalists from GER; 131 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	41%	43%	14%	1.5%
Chance if	< 1%	4.1%	30%	88%

Number of tournament winners for POR; 58 mbit

n	0	1
Probability	84%	16%
Chance if	7%	33%

Number of tournament winners for ESP; 41 mbit

n	0	1	2
Probability	57%	36%	7%
Chance if	73%	89%	97.4%

Number of tournament winners for GER; 29 mbit

n	0	1	2
Probability	72%	25%	2.7%
Chance if	4.3%	13%	35%

Number of semifinalists from ENG; 1 mbit

n	1	2	3	4	5
Probability	2.7%	14%	33%	36%	14%
Chance if	99.9%	>99.99%	100%	100%	100%

CL: Quarterfinals

 

Quarter-finals		Semi-finals		Final		Champions
Paris SG (100%)
		Liverpool (54%) Paris SG (46%)
Liverpool (100%)
				Bayern (34%) Liverpool (27%) Paris SG (22%) Real Madrid (18%)
Real Madrid (100%)
		Bayern (61%) Real Madrid (39%)
Bayern (100%)
						Arsenal (39%) Bayern (16%) Liverpool (12%) Barcelona (11%)
Barcelona (100%)
		Barcelona (66%) Atletico (34%)
Atletico (100%)
				Arsenal (61%) Barcelona (23%) Sporting (8%)
Sporting (100%)
		Arsenal (82%) Sporting (18%)
Arsenal (100%)

 

CL: And so they were twelve

 

Quarter-finals		Semi-finals		Final		Champions
Paris SG (100%)
		Paris SG (58%) Liverpool (36%)
Liverpool (67%) Galatasaray (33%)
				Bayern (35%) Paris SG (27%) Real Madrid (19%) Liverpool (18%)
Real Madrid (100%)
		Bayern (61%) Real Madrid (39%)
Bayern (100%)
						Arsenal (40%) Bayern (17%) Paris SG (12%) Liverpool (8%)
Barcelona (69%) Newcastle (31%)
		Barcelona (45%) Atletico (35%) Newcastle (18%)
Atletico (93%)
				Arsenal (63%) Barcelona (16%) Sporting (8%)
Sporting (100%)
		Arsenal (81%) Sporting (19%)
Arsenal (100%)

 

Which countries get extra CL spots

		Score
Country	Probability	Average	Min	Max
ENG	99.72%	18.84	15.17	22.89
ESP	67%	15.97	12.56	19.88
GER	15%	14.67	12.14	19.14
POR	14%	14.52	12.4	19.6
POL	4.2%	14.35	13.75	18.38
ITA	< 1%	13.66	12.71	16.5
GRE	< 1%	12.46	11	15.9
FRA	< 1%	12.41	10.25	16.06

Number of semifinalists from ESP; 296 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4	5
Probability	2.6%	18%	36%	31%	12%	1.5%
Chance if	< 1%	19%	61%	90%	98.9%	99.9%

Number of semifinalists from POR; 215 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	34%	48%	17%	1.7%
Chance if	< 1%	8%	51%	91%

Number of semifinalists from GER; 179 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	18%	45%	30%	7%
Chance if	< 1%	4.2%	27%	68%

Number of finalists from ESP; 172 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	31%	43%	21%	4.5%
Chance if	36%	71%	92%	99.1%

Number of quarterfinalists from ESP; 154 mbit

n	2	3	4	5	6
Probability	< 1%	10%	35%	41%	13%
Chance if	6%	23%	53%	81%	93%

Number of finalists from POR; 142 mbit

n	0	1	2
Probability	71%	26%	3.0%
Chance if	4.4%	30%	85%

Number of finalists from GER; 139 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	45%	42%	11%	1.0%
Chance if	2.9%	16%	52%	94%

Number of quarterfinalists from POR; 103 mbit

n	1	2	3
Probability	10%	58%	32%
Chance if	< 1%	6%	33%

Number of semifinalists from POL; 95 mbit

n	0	1
Probability	91%	9%
Chance if	< 1%	36%

Number of quarterfinalists from GER; 82 mbit

n	1	2	3	4
Probability	6%	42%	45%	7%
Chance if	< 1%	5%	21%	47%