Posts
Here are the results of 1,000,000 simulation of the upcoming premier league season. As usual are the strength of the teams based on previous results and not taking into account transfers occurring over the summer.
Notably, there are almost a seven-point gap between Sunderland and Coventry, and the three promoted teams are relegated in more than 50% of the simulations.
| Average Simulated Season | Probabilities | |||||||||||
| Pts | Team | Pts | GD | Relegated | Top 7 | Top 6 | Top 5 | Top 4 | Win League | ECL | EL | CL |
| 0 | Arsenal | 80.8 | +49 | 99.8% | 99.6% | 99.3% | 98% | 75% | < 0.1% | 0.8% | 99.1% | |
| 0 | Man City | 70.5 | +30 | 94% | 90% | 86% | 78% | 13% | 2% | 9% | 84% | |
| 0 | Aston Villa | 64.7 | +20 | < 0.1% | 79% | 71% | 62% | 49% | 4% | 5% | 18% | 59% |
| 0 | Man United | 64.1 | +19 | < 0.1% | 77% | 69% | 59% | 46% | 3% | 5% | 19% | 56% |
| 0 | Liverpool | 63.6 | +18 | < 0.1% | 75% | 66% | 56% | 44% | 3% | 6% | 20% | 52% |
| 0 | Bournemouth | 59.0 | +11 | 0.4% | 53% | 43% | 32% | 22% | 0.8% | 6% | 16% | 42% |
| 0 | Brighton | 55.6 | +5 | 1% | 35% | 26% | 18% | 11% | 0.3% | 5% | 41% | 15% |
| 0 | Newcastle | 55.0 | +4 | 1% | 32% | 24% | 16% | 10% | 0.3% | 6% | 15% | 14% |
| 0 | Brentford | 54.7 | +3 | 1% | 31% | 24% | 16% | 10% | 0.3% | 7% | 15% | 13% |
| 0 | Chelsea | 54.2 | +2 | 1% | 28% | 21% | 14% | 8% | 0.2% | 6% | 14% | 12% |
| 0 | Forest | 53.0 | +1 | 2% | 23% | 17% | 11% | 7% | < 0.1% | 7% | 12% | 9% |
| 0 | Fulham | 52.0 | -1 | 3% | 19% | 13% | 8% | 5% | < 0.1% | 5% | 11% | 7% |
| 0 | Everton | 50.7 | -3 | 4% | 15% | 10% | 6% | 4% | < 0.1% | 4% | 9% | 5% |
| 0 | Crystal Palace | 50.7 | -3 | 4% | 16% | 11% | 7% | 4% | < 0.1% | 4% | 8% | 15% |
| 0 | Leeds | 50.0 | -5 | 5% | 13% | 9% | 5% | 3% | < 0.1% | 4% | 7% | 4% |
| 0 | Tottenham | 47.6 | -8 | 8% | 8% | 5% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 5% | 2% | |
| 0 | Sunderland | 42.8 | -17 | 22% | 2% | 1% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 3% | 2% | 6% | |
| 0 | Coventry | 35.0 | -31 | 68% | 0.2% | < 0.1% | < 0.1% | < 0.1% | 0.9% | 0.2% | < 0.1% | |
| 0 | Ipswich | 32.4 | -36 | 80% | < 0.1% | < 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% | ||||
| 0 | Hull | 22.6 | -57 | 99% | 0.1% | < 0.1% | ||||||
Titles
| Team | League | FA Cup | League Cup | Europe | |||
| Arsenal | 75% | 31% | 33% | 27% | |||
| Man City | 13% | 14% | 9% | 9% | |||
| Aston Villa | 4% | 8% | 6% | 7% | |||
| Man United | 3% | 8% | 3% | 7% | |||
| Liverpool | 3% | 7% | 7% | 3% | |||
| Bournemouth | 0.8% | 5% | 2% | 18% | |||
| Brighton | 0.3% | 3% | 2% | 36% | |||
| Newcastle | 0.3% | 3% | 1.0% | ||||
| Brentford | 0.3% | 3% | 4% | ||||
| Chelsea | 0.2% | 3% | 2% | ||||
| Forest | < 0.1% | 2% | 2% | ||||
| Fulham | < 0.1% | 2% | 1% | ||||
| Everton | < 0.1% | 2% | 1% | ||||
| Crystal Palace | < 0.1% | 2% | 2% | 11% | |||
| Leeds | < 0.1% | 2% | 1% | ||||
| Tottenham | 1% | 0.3% | |||||
| Sunderland | 0.7% | 2% | 6% | ||||
| Coventry | 0.2% | 0.9% | |||||
| Ipswich | 0.1% | 0.4% | |||||
| Hull | < 0.1% | < 0.1% |
