Tuesday, September 15, 2026

Europa League 26/27

 

PosPtsTeamPtsGDTop 24Top 16Top 8R16QFSemiFinalChamp



10Bournemouth1822-899.71%97.2%82%97.6%78%56%38%24%
20Benfica1818-799.59%96.5%79%96.3%71%45%27%15%
30Bayer Leverkusen1719-699.31%95%74%95%67%40%23%12%
40Crystal Palace1716-1098.7%92%66%93%64%39%22%11%
50Sunderland1616-698.3%90%61%89%52%25%11%4.8%
60Juventus1616-897.9%89%59%89%57%31%16%8%
70Rennes1518-996.8%84%50%83%45%20%8%3.4%
80Milan1421-995.8%80%42%82%48%24%11%5%
90Marseille1418-1194%77%39%78%41%18%8%3.1%
100TSG Hoffenheim1414-794%77%39%77%38%16%6%2.4%
110Union Saint-Gilloise1415-994%76%38%77%40%18%7%3.0%
120Lyon1317-1091%69%30%74%39%19%8%3.5%
130Celta Vigo1316-1389%65%26%69%33%14%5%2.1%
140Olympiakos1310-888%62%24%63%26%10%3.2%1.1%
150Real Sociedad1112-880%47%13%53%22%8%2.8%0.99%
160Dinamo Zagreb116-1171%37%9%37%10%2.6%0.56%0.15%
170NEC1015-1469%35%8%32%7%1.4%0.24%< 0.1%
180Celtic1013-1269%35%8%36%10%2.4%0.54%0.14%
190Sparta Prague109-968%33%7%32%7%1.6%0.29%< 0.1%
200AZ1018-1968%33%7%31%7%1.5%0.26%< 0.1%
210Viktoria Plzen1016-1964%30%6%30%7%1.7%0.33%< 0.1%
220Celje1010-1660%27%5%20%2.9%0.37%< 0.1%< 0.1%
230Ferencvaros913-1358%25%4.7%24%4.8%0.89%0.15%< 0.1%
240Anderlecht911-1257%24%4.8%24%4.9%0.92%0.15%< 0.1%
250Red Bull Salzburg915-1953%21%3.5%18%3.0%0.46%< 0.1%< 0.1%
260Lech Poznan89-1145%15%2.2%17%3.4%0.63%0.10%< 0.1%
270Jagiellonia Bialystok812-1643%15%2.1%13%2.0%0.27%< 0.1%< 0.1%
280Levski Sofia87-1241%14%1.8%11%1.5%0.17%< 0.1%< 0.1%
290Sturm Graz89-1639%12%1.6%12%1.8%0.26%< 0.1%< 0.1%
300Torreense88-1539%12%1.6%9%0.90%< 0.1%< 0.1%< 0.1%
310Besiktas89-1738%12%1.8%14%2.8%0.51%< 0.1%< 0.1%
320Hapoel Be'er Sheva712-1734%10%1.2%10%1.4%0.19%< 0.1%< 0.1%
330Omonia711-2028%8%0.86%8%1.1%0.14%< 0.1%< 0.1%
340Lillestrom59-1215%3.0%0.21%2.5%0.19%< 0.1%< 0.1%< 0.1%
350OFI54-1611%1.8%0.12%1.6%0.11%< 0.1%< 0.1%< 0.1%
360Ararat-Armenia510-2312%2.0%0.13%0.96%< 0.1%< 0.1%


Expected Requirement

Top 24Top 16Top 8

PtsGDPtsGDPtsGD
1%1012-111316-81813-6
5%107-91312-91712-3
25%911-111215-91617-9
50%99-131211-101614-11
75%813-141115-101515-9
95%85-111116-181416-10
99%719-231017-161412-10



Important for Top-8
Milan vs Benfica (12.5%)Home Win (36%)Draw (24%)Away Win (39%)
Milan61%38%26%
Benfica67%78%91%
Real Sociedad vs Bournemouth (9.5%)Home Win (24%)Draw (22%)Away Win (54%)
Bournemouth66%77%91%
Real Sociedad28%13%7%
Viktoria Plzen vs Union Saint-Gilloise (9%)Home Win (28%)Draw (23%)Away Win (49%)
Union Saint-Gilloise21%30%51%
Viktoria Plzen14%4.8%2.3%
Sunderland vs AZ (8.7%)Home Win (66%)Draw (19%)Away Win (15%)
Sunderland71%49%36%
AZ3.9%8%20%
Juventus vs NEC (7.7%)Home Win (71%)Draw (17%)Away Win (12%)
Juventus67%45%33%
NEC5%10%23%
Sturm Graz vs Rennes (7.4%)Home Win (20%)Draw (21%)Away Win (59%)
Rennes28%39%61%
Sturm Graz5.0%1.3%0.53%
Anderlecht vs Lyon (7.3%)Home Win (23%)Draw (22%)Away Win (55%)
Lyon14%22%41%
Anderlecht12%4.3%2.1%
Besiktas vs Marseille (7.3%)Home Win (24%)Draw (22%)Away Win (54%)
Marseille21%30%52%
Besiktas4.9%1.4%0.6%
Crystal Palace vs Lech Poznan (5.8%)Home Win (74%)Draw (15%)Away Win (10%)
Crystal Palace73%52%40%
Lech Poznan1.2%2.7%9%
Bayer Leverkusen vs Celje (5.5%)Home Win (80%)Draw (13%)Away Win (8%)
Bayer Leverkusen79%58%46%
Celje3.6%7%18%
Omonia vs Celta Vigo (5.3%)Home Win (20%)Draw (21%)Away Win (59%)
Celta Vigo11%17%35%
Omonia2.7%0.7%0.28%

Important for Knockout Stage
Levski Sofia vs Red Bull Salzburg (15.3%)Home Win (40%)Draw (24%)Away Win (36%)
Levski Sofia60%36%24%
Red Bull Salzburg37%50%73%
Hapoel Be'er Sheva vs Dinamo Zagreb (13.5%)Home Win (32%)Draw (24%)Away Win (44%)
Hapoel Be'er Sheva54%30%20%
Dinamo Zagreb55%67%85%
Celtic vs Ferencvaros (12.6%)Home Win (51%)Draw (23%)Away Win (26%)
Celtic82%62%50%
Ferencvaros46%59%79%
Lillestrom vs Torreense (12.2%)Home Win (40%)Draw (24%)Away Win (35%)
Torreense24%35%58%
Lillestrom27%11%6%
Ararat-Armenia vs Sparta Prague (10.1%)Home Win (16%)Draw (19%)Away Win (65%)
Sparta Prague43%56%78%
Ararat-Armenia29%12%7%
Omonia vs Celta Vigo (9.3%)Home Win (20%)Draw (21%)Away Win (59%)
Omonia52%30%20%
Celta Vigo77%86%95.2%
Olympiakos vs Jagiellonia Bialystok (9%)Home Win (66%)Draw (19%)Away Win (15%)
Jagiellonia Bialystok36%48%72%
Olympiakos93%82%72%
Anderlecht vs Lyon (8.9%)Home Win (23%)Draw (22%)Away Win (55%)
Anderlecht78%59%47%
Lyon82%89%96.5%
Besiktas vs Marseille (8.6%)Home Win (24%)Draw (22%)Away Win (54%)
Besiktas62%39%28%
Marseille88%93%97.9%
Viktoria Plzen vs Union Saint-Gilloise (8.3%)Home Win (28%)Draw (23%)Away Win (49%)
Viktoria Plzen84%65%53%
Union Saint-Gilloise87%93%97.8%
Sturm Graz vs Rennes (7.8%)Home Win (20%)Draw (21%)Away Win (59%)
Sturm Graz65%41%29%
Rennes92%95.7%98.9%
OFI vs TSG Hoffenheim (5.8%)Home Win (13%)Draw (17%)Away Win (70%)
OFI29%13%7%
TSG Hoffenheim84%91%97.2%


 

Monday, September 14, 2026

PL: Arsenal and City yet to lose a point.

Coventry yet to take a point. 



Average Simulated
Season
Probabilities
PtsTeamPtsGDRelegatedTop 7Top 6Top 5Top 4Win LeagueECLELCL
12Arsenal84.7+50
99.98%99.96%99.91%99.76%80%< 0.1%< 0.1%99.93%
12Man City75.6+33< 0.1%99.11%98.4%97.2%95%18%0.38%1.8%97.3%
6Liverpool62.6+18< 0.1%76%68%58%46%0.81%6%17%60%
4Man United60.8+16< 0.1%68%59%49%36%0.46%7%19%50%
1Aston Villa59.2+120.17%60%51%40%28%0.25%8%20%43%
7Brighton56.4+120.44%46%36%27%17%0.12%5%37%26%
3Bournemouth56.3+90.49%45%35%26%17%0.10%8%14%43%
7Chelsea55.3+30.72%38%29%21%13%< 0.1%8%17%21%
6Brentford54.6+60.81%35%27%19%12%< 0.1%12%16%19%
5Newcastle54.3+30.95%33%25%17%10%< 0.1%8%16%17%
8Leeds52.8+01.5%26%19%13%7%< 0.1%7%13%13%
5Forest52.8+11.6%26%19%13%7%< 0.1%6%14%13%
6Everton51.6-02.1%21%15%10%6%< 0.1%9%12%10%
3Crystal Palace48.1-86%11%7%4.2%2.2%< 0.1%4.0%6%15%
1Fulham47.4-47%9%6%3.6%1.8%< 0.1%4.3%7%3.5%
2Tottenham44.5-1213%4.2%2.6%1.4%0.65%< 0.1%2.4%3.7%1.4%
4Sunderland42.1-1721%2.1%1.2%0.63%0.27%
2.0%1.8%5%
6Ipswich34.7-3567%< 0.1%< 0.1%< 0.1%< 0.1%
0.26%0.19%< 0.1%
0Coventry30.5-3884%< 0.1%< 0.1%< 0.1%< 0.1%
0.15%0.20%< 0.1%
8Hull27.5-4994%< 0.1%< 0.1%< 0.1%< 0.1%
< 0.1%< 0.1%< 0.1%


Titles
TeamLeagueFA CupLeague CupEurope


Arsenal80%31%34%28%
Man City18%14%13%10%
Liverpool0.81%7%9%4.8%
Man United0.46%8%6%4.5%
Aston Villa0.25%8%6%5%
Brighton0.12%3.3%1.3%34%
Bournemouth0.10%4.7%8%24%
Chelsea< 0.1%2.8%2.0%
Brentford< 0.1%3.0%8%
Newcastle< 0.1%3.1%1.3%
Leeds< 0.1%1.8%0.72%
Forest< 0.1%2.5%

Everton< 0.1%1.9%4.5%
Crystal Palace< 0.1%1.9%1.1%11%
Fulham< 0.1%2.2%1.2%
Tottenham< 0.1%1.3%0.71%
Sunderland
0.69%1.1%4.8%
Ipswich
0.13%0.19%
Coventry
0.18%0.13%
Hull
< 0.1%< 0.1%

 

Thursday, September 10, 2026

CL: Mathday 1

 In matchday 2, PSG are visiting Etihad in Manchester in an expected top match. That match will probably not influence which teams reach the knockout phase. For that matches like Leipzig vs PSV and Villarreal vs Napoli are more important.

Nine to ten points are expected to be required to reach the knockout phase. To reach top-8 is expected to require 15-16 points. 

 

PosPtsTeamPtsGDTop 24Top 16Top 8R16QFSemiFinalChamp



13Arsenal1917-699.91%98.3%86%98.3%80%60%43%28%
23Real Madrid1720-999.61%95.0%72%92%57%29%14%6%
33Bayern Munich1714-399.21%93%69%94%68%44%27%15%
43Liverpool1620-998.5%90%61%88%52%26%11%4.8%
53Barcelona1617-898.6%89%57%89%57%32%17%8%
63Man City1614-598.4%89%58%90%60%36%20%10%
73Aston Villa1618-1198.3%88%57%87%52%27%12%5%
83Paris Saint-Germain1520-697.6%85%52%87%58%34%19%9%
93Man United1517-1395.4%78%41%79%45%23%10%4.5%
103Sporting CP1512-1397.0%78%38%74%34%13%4.6%1.6%
110Inter Milan1428-1296.6%80%40%78%41%19%8%3.0%
123Borussia Dortmund1417-1395%73%32%69%29%11%3.5%1.2%
133VfB Stuttgart1318-1391%65%26%56%18%4.9%1.1%0.31%
143Real Betis1216-1386%51%15%45%13%3.2%0.69%0.18%
150Porto126-580%46%13%48%17%6%1.6%0.51%
163Como1216-1880%44%13%42%13%3.3%0.76%0.19%
173Lens1212-1479%44%13%42%13%3.6%0.87%0.24%
180Napoli1115-1475%38%8%40%12%3.7%0.94%0.27%
191Roma1115-1476%38%9%42%14%4.3%1.2%0.36%
200Atletico Madrid1111-1074%38%9%44%17%6%2.0%0.66%
210Villarreal1015-1664%26%4.9%30%8%2.3%0.53%0.14%
221Fenerbahce1011-1263%25%4.2%20%3.4%0.52%< 0.1%< 0.1%
231PSV Eindhoven1011-1262%27%5%29%8%2.2%0.52%0.14%
243AEK Athens107-866%26%4.8%20%3.2%0.44%< 0.1%< 0.1%
250RB Leipzig1015-1862%24%4.1%29%8%2.2%0.51%0.14%
260Lille915-1851%16%2.1%21%5%1.3%0.29%< 0.1%
270Bodoe Glimt99-1448%17%2.5%18%3.9%0.80%0.14%< 0.1%
280Club Brugge910-1946%16%2.4%20%6%1.5%0.35%< 0.1%
290Viking712-1432%7%0.61%8%1.1%0.14%< 0.1%< 0.1%
300Galatasaray77-1032%8%0.88%10%1.9%0.34%< 0.1%< 0.1%
310Slavia Prague710-1725%4.9%0.40%7%1.1%0.16%< 0.1%< 0.1%
320Feyenoord611-1721%4.5%0.41%4.4%0.51%< 0.1%< 0.1%< 0.1%
330LASK48-166%0.60%< 0.1%0.46%< 0.1%< 0.1%

340Slovan Bratislava48-205%0.47%< 0.1%0.21%< 0.1%< 0.1%

351Shakhtar Donetsk38-241.1%< 0.1%< 0.1%< 0.1%



360Sabah15-210.35%< 0.1%< 0.1%< 0.1%




Expected Requirement

Top 24Top 16Top 8

PtsGDPtsGDPtsGD
1%119-121412-91816-9
5%1014-141316-101719-10
25%109-141313-121620-11
50%910-111216-111617-12
75%912-181212-111515-6
95%810-141115-131421-9
99%717-141110-111414-9



 

Tuesday, September 8, 2026

Champions League

We have simulated the league phase a million times and most of the time 8-10 points are required to reach top-24 and the knockout stage, while 14-17 points are required to finish top-8. Probabilities for teams are shown below in the table. 


PosPtsTeamPtsGDTop 24Top 16Top 8R16QFSemiFinalChamp



10Arsenal1818-699.53%96.0%80%97.0%78%59%43%28%
20Bayern Munich1618-897.8%88%62%91%66%43%26%14%
30Real Madrid1617-998.0%88%59%87%53%28%13%6%
40Inter Milan1619-1597.4%86%55%83%46%21%9%3.6%
50Barcelona1517-496.8%84%53%86%55%32%16%8%
60Liverpool1522-1295.7%82%52%82%48%24%11%4.7%
70Paris Saint-Germain1519-996.4%83%51%86%57%34%19%9%
80Man City1514-895%78%47%84%56%34%19%9%
90Aston Villa1519-1495%78%46%80%47%25%11%5%
100Man United1421-1194%75%42%78%45%23%11%4.6%
110Sporting CP1411-1092%68%32%67%31%12%4.4%1.6%
120Borussia Dortmund1312-987%60%25%60%26%10%3.3%1.1%
130Porto1312-1085%58%25%56%22%7%2.2%0.68%
140VfB Stuttgart1214-782%53%21%49%16%4.4%1.0%0.28%
150Atletico Madrid1211-1078%47%17%50%21%8%2.5%0.85%
160PSV Eindhoven1214-1478%46%16%43%14%3.7%0.89%0.23%
170Roma1211-1178%46%16%46%17%5%1.5%0.46%
180Napoli1214-1578%45%15%45%15%4.6%1.2%0.35%
190RB Leipzig1116-1573%39%12%38%12%3.3%0.78%0.21%
200Villarreal1114-1570%36%11%36%11%3.1%0.73%0.19%
210Real Betis1015-1266%32%8%32%9%2.4%0.52%0.13%
220Lille1017-1565%31%8%31%9%2.2%0.49%0.12%
230Lens1014-1462%31%9%32%10%2.9%0.72%0.19%
240Como109-962%29%8%31%10%2.7%0.63%0.17%
250Fenerbahce1011-1261%27%7%22%4.0%0.65%< 0.1%< 0.1%
260Club Brugge106-1155%24%6%27%8%2.2%0.51%0.13%
270AEK Athens1010-1755%21%4.3%17%2.8%0.41%< 0.1%< 0.1%
280Bodoe Glimt1010-1854%22%5%22%5%1.1%0.20%< 0.1%
290Viking812-1440%12%2.1%11%1.7%0.24%< 0.1%< 0.1%
300Galatasaray811-1538%13%2.4%13%2.8%0.52%< 0.1%< 0.1%
310Slavia Prague811-1636%11%1.8%11%1.9%0.31%< 0.1%< 0.1%
320Feyenoord79-1824%6%0.94%6%0.73%< 0.1%< 0.1%< 0.1%
330LASK57-169%1.5%0.12%0.81%< 0.1%< 0.1%< 0.1%
340Slovan Bratislava45-125%0.63%< 0.1%0.25%< 0.1%< 0.1%

350Shakhtar Donetsk26-220.56%< 0.1%< 0.1%< 0.1%< 0.1%


360Sabah21-250.39%< 0.1%< 0.1%< 0.1%< 0.1%< 0.1%


Expected Requirement

Top 24Top 16Top 8

PtsGDPtsGDPtsGD
1%118-91414-121722-10
5%1011-91318-131714-8
25%109-121311-101616-9
50%98-71213-81612-11
75%915-191211-101515-9
95%86-81117-151416-9
99%814-211113-141414-11



Important for Top-8
Real Madrid vs Inter Milan (14.7%)Home Win (48%)Draw (23%)Away Win (28%)
Real Madrid75%52%38%
Inter Milan42%56%77%
Porto vs Man City (12.2%)Home Win (27%)Draw (23%)Away Win (50%)
Man City28%39%61%
Porto44%24%15%
Liverpool vs Atletico Madrid (11.2%)Home Win (54%)Draw (22%)Away Win (24%)
Liverpool65%42%30%
Atletico Madrid10%17%34%
Napoli vs Arsenal (9.7%)Home Win (17%)Draw (20%)Away Win (63%)
Arsenal60%72%88%
Napoli34%16%9%
Club Brugge vs Aston Villa (9.3%)Home Win (27%)Draw (23%)Away Win (49%)
Aston Villa27%38%60%
Club Brugge14%5%2.7%
Borussia Dortmund vs Villarreal (9.2%)Home Win (53%)Draw (23%)Away Win (24%)
Borussia Dortmund35%17%10%
Villarreal5%10%23%
Fenerbahce vs Roma (7.3%)Home Win (30%)Draw (24%)Away Win (47%)
Roma6%11%25%
Fenerbahce14%5%2.5%
Como vs RB Leipzig (6.7%)Home Win (44%)Draw (24%)Away Win (32%)
RB Leipzig5%10%23%
Como14%5%2.6%
Sporting CP vs Galatasaray (6.6%)Home Win (63%)Draw (20%)Away Win (17%)
Sporting CP41%21%13%
Galatasaray1.0%2.3%7%
Bayern Munich vs Bodoe Glimt (6.5%)Home Win (75%)Draw (15%)Away Win (10%)
Bayern Munich69%46%35%
Bodoe Glimt3.3%7%17%
Lille vs Real Betis (6.3%)Home Win (44%)Draw (24%)Away Win (32%)
Real Betis3.3%6%17%
Lille14%4.9%2.4%
VfB Stuttgart vs Viking (5.4%)Home Win (59%)Draw (21%)Away Win (20%)
VfB Stuttgart28%13%8%
Viking0.8%1.8%6%

Important for Knockout Stage
Slavia Prague vs Lens (14%)Home Win (32%)Draw (24%)Away Win (44%)
Slavia Prague58%33%22%
Lens45%58%78%
Lille vs Real Betis (14%)Home Win (44%)Draw (24%)Away Win (32%)
Lille81%60%47%
Real Betis52%66%84%
Fenerbahce vs Roma (12.8%)Home Win (30%)Draw (24%)Away Win (47%)
Fenerbahce82%61%48%
Roma63%74%90%
Como vs RB Leipzig (12.8%)Home Win (44%)Draw (24%)Away Win (32%)
Como77%56%44%
RB Leipzig61%73%90%
VfB Stuttgart vs Viking (11.4%)Home Win (59%)Draw (21%)Away Win (20%)
Viking30%42%67%
VfB Stuttgart90%76%65%
AEK Athens vs LASK (10.4%)Home Win (65%)Draw (19%)Away Win (16%)
AEK Athens65%40%29%
LASK5%10%26%
Borussia Dortmund vs Villarreal (9.8%)Home Win (53%)Draw (23%)Away Win (24%)
Villarreal60%72%88%
Borussia Dortmund94%84%74%
Sporting CP vs Galatasaray (9.1%)Home Win (63%)Draw (20%)Away Win (17%)
Galatasaray30%41%64%
Sporting CP96.5%87%79%
Club Brugge vs Aston Villa (8%)Home Win (27%)Draw (23%)Away Win (49%)
Club Brugge75%55%43%
Aston Villa89%94%98.2%
Liverpool vs Atletico Madrid (5.7%)Home Win (54%)Draw (22%)Away Win (24%)
Atletico Madrid71%80%92%
Liverpool98.5%95%91%
Porto vs Man City (5.4%)Home Win (27%)Draw (23%)Away Win (50%)
Porto95.1%87%79%
Man City89%94%98.2%