Europa League and Conference League

 

Europa League

Pos	Pts	Team	Pts	GD	R16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
1	21	Lyon	21	18-5	100%	67%	37%	20%	8%
2	21	Aston Villa	21	14-6	100%	88%	71%	57%	41%
3	19	Midtjylland	19	18-8	100%	51%	23%	7%	2.4%
4	17	Betis	17	13-7	100%	58%	30%	11%	4.4%
5	17	Porto	17	13-7	100%	74%	46%	21%	10%
6	17	Braga	17	11-5	100%	61%	29%	9%	3.2%
7	17	Freiburg	17	10-4	100%	60%	19%	9%	3.0%
8	16	Roma	16	13-6	100%	76%	36%	22%	11%
9	16	Genk	16	11-7	95%	23%	4.3%	1.4%	< 1%
10	15	Bologna	15	14-7	92%	39%	13%	6%	2.1%
11	15	Stuttgart	15	15-9	99.48%	51%	24%	10%	4.1%
12	15	Ferencvaros	15	12-11	45%	7%	1.9%	< 1%	< 1%
13	14	Forest	14	15-7	99.02%	63%	37%	17%	8%
14	14	Viktoria Plzen	14	8-3	65%	18%	6%	1.0%	< 1%
15	14	Crvena Zvezda	14	7-6	68%	10%	2.5%	< 1%	< 1%
16	13	Dinamo Zagreb	13	15-13	5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
17	12	PAOK	12	17-14	14%	2.8%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%
18	12	Lille	12	12-9	32%	9%	4.2%	1.8%	< 1%
19	12	Fenerbahce	12	10-7	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
20	12	Panathinaikos	12	11-9	35%	9%	2.4%	< 1%	< 1%
21	11	Celtic	11	13-15	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
22	10	Celta	10	12-14	86%	23%	11%	5%	1.9%
23	10	Razgrad	10	12-15	55%	7%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%
24	9	Brann	9	9-11	8%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Last 16		Quarter-finals		Semi-finals		Final		Champions
Razgrad (55%) Ferencvaros (45%)
		Porto (45%) Braga (41%)
Porto (50%) Braga (50%)
				Porto (31%) Braga (21%) Betis (20%) Midtjylland (16%)
Viktoria Plzen (65%) Panathinaikos (35%)
		Betis (38%) Midtjylland (35%) Viktoria Plzen (18%)
Betis (50%) Midtjylland (50%)
						Aston Villa (29%) Porto (14%) Roma (13%) Lyon (10%)
Genk (95%)
		Roma (41%) Freiburg (35%) Genk (23%)
Freiburg (50%) Roma (50%)
				Aston Villa (35%) Roma (20%) Lyon (18%) Celta (11%)
Celta (86%)
		Aston Villa (43%) Lyon (31%) Celta (23%)
Aston Villa (50%) Lyon (50%)
								Aston Villa (41%) Roma (11%) Porto (10%) Forest (8%)
Stuttgart (99%)
		Stuttgart (51%) Porto (29%) Braga (20%)
Braga (50%) Porto (50%)
				Forest (37%) Stuttgart (24%) Porto (15%) Betis (10%)
Forest (99%)
		Forest (63%) Betis (20%) Midtjylland (16%)
Midtjylland (50%) Betis (50%)
						Aston Villa (28%) Forest (17%) Lyon (10%) Stuttgart (10%)
Bologna (92%)
		Bologna (39%) Roma (34%) Freiburg (26%)
Roma (50%) Freiburg (50%)
				Aston Villa (36%) Lyon (20%) Roma (16%) Bologna (13%)
Crvena Zvezda (68%) Lille (32%)
		Aston Villa (45%) Lyon (36%) Crvena Zvezda (10%)
Lyon (50%) Aston Villa (50%)

 

Conference League

Pos	Pts	Team	Pts	GD	R16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
1	16	Strasbourg	16	11-5	100%	74%	46%	33%	19%
2	14	Rakow	14	9-2	100%	52%	22%	11%	3.6%
3	13	AEK	13	14-7	100%	77%	49%	22%	10%
4	13	Sparta Praha	13	10-3	100%	70%	38%	13%	5%
5	13	Rayo Vallecano	13	13-7	100%	72%	40%	16%	7%
6	13	Shakhtar	13	10-5	100%	63%	29%	9%	3.3%
7	13	Mainz	13	7-3	100%	56%	30%	19%	9%
8	12	Larnaca	12	7-1	100%	40%	14%	6%	1.7%
9	11	Lausanne	11	6-3	70%	20%	5%	1.6%	< 1%
10	10	Crystal Palace	10	11-6	96.0%	77%	55%	45%	32%
11	10	Lech	10	12-8	98.0%	37%	14%	2.6%	< 1%
12	10	Samsunspor	10	10-6	93%	26%	8%	2.1%	< 1%
13	10	Celje	10	8-7	93%	23%	8%	2.1%	< 1%
14	10	Alkmaar	10	7-7	67%	26%	13%	2.8%	1.2%
15	9	Fiorentina	9	8-5	99.26%	52%	19%	12%	6%
16	9	Rijeka	9	5-2	73%	13%	4.1%	1.1%	< 1%
17	9	Jagiellonia	9	5-4	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
18	8	Omonia	8	5-4	27%	8%	3.3%	1.3%	< 1%
19	8	Noah	8	6-7	33%	3.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
20	8	Drita	8	4-8	7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
21	7	Kuopio	7	6-5	2.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
22	7	Shkendija	7	4-5	7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
23	7	Zrinjski Mostar	7	8-10	4.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
24	7	Sigma Olomouc	7	7-9	30%	6%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%

Last 16		Quarter-finals		Semi-finals		Final		Champions
Lech (98%)
		Lech (37%) Rayo Vallecano (34%) Shakhtar (29%)
Rayo Vallecano (50%) Shakhtar (50%)
				AEK (23%) Rayo Vallecano (18%) Sparta Praha (18%) Lech (14%)
Alkmaar (67%) Noah (33%)
		AEK (37%) Sparta Praha (33%) Alkmaar (26%)
AEK (50%) Sparta Praha (50%)
						Crystal Palace (45%) Fiorentina (12%) Strasbourg (10%)
Crystal Palace (96%)
		Crystal Palace (77%) Mainz (15%)
Mainz (50%) Larnaca (50%)
				Crystal Palace (55%) Fiorentina (19%) Strasbourg (13%)
Fiorentina (99%)
		Fiorentina (52%) Strasbourg (30%) Rakow (17%)
Strasbourg (50%) Rakow (50%)
								Crystal Palace (32%) Strasbourg (19%) AEK (10%) Mainz (9%)
Samsunspor (93%)
		Rayo Vallecano (39%) Shakhtar (35%) Samsunspor (26%)
Shakhtar (50%) Rayo Vallecano (50%)
				AEK (26%) Rayo Vallecano (22%) Sparta Praha (20%) Shakhtar (16%)
Celje (93%)
		AEK (40%) Sparta Praha (36%) Celje (23%)
Sparta Praha (50%) AEK (50%)
						Strasbourg (24%) Mainz (14%) AEK (14%) Rayo Vallecano (11%)
Lausanne (70%) Sigma Olomouc (30%)
		Mainz (41%) Larnaca (33%) Lausanne (20%)
Larnaca (50%) Mainz (50%)
				Strasbourg (33%) Mainz (23%) Rakow (18%) Larnaca (12%)
Rijeka (73%) Omonia (27%)
		Strasbourg (44%) Rakow (35%) Rijeka (13%)
Rakow (50%) Strasbourg (50%)

Which countries get extra CL spots

		Score
Country	Probability	Average	Min	Max
ENG	99.92%	20.99	14.89	25.72
GER	50%	15.88	11.14	22.21
POR	19%	14.7	11.3	22.6
POL	16%	14.91	12.5	21.75
ITA	8%	14.08	10.14	21.79
ESP	6%	13.83	9.38	20.38
GRE	< 1%	11.45	9.4	19.4
CYP	< 1%	10.8	9.63	16.38
FRA	< 1%	11.2	8.69	15.94
CZE	< 1%	9.84	7.7	16.3

Number of semifinalists from GER; 250 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4
Probability	18%	41%	30%	9%	1.2%
Chance if	9%	37%	74%	95%	99.6%

Number of semifinalists from POR; 202 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	30%	50%	18%	1.9%
Chance if	1.5%	13%	56%	95%

Number of semifinalists from POL; 197 mbit

n	0	1	2
Probability	67%	30%	3.1%
Chance if	3.4%	38%	88%

Number of quarterfinalists from POR; 189 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	3.2%	27%	47%	23%
Chance if	< 1%	< 1%	14%	52%

Number of quarterfinalists from GER; 182 mbit

n	1	2	3	4	5
Probability	8%	30%	40%	20%	2.4%
Chance if	6%	27%	57%	81%	93%

Number of finalists from GER; 155 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	44%	42%	13%	1.5%
Chance if	27%	59%	89%	99.1%

Number of quarterfinalists from POL; 153 mbit

n	0	1	2
Probability	30%	51%	19%
Chance if	< 1%	14%	48%

Number of quarterfinalists from ITA; 123 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4
Probability	1.6%	28%	45%	22%	3.9%
Chance if	< 1%	< 1%	3.0%	21%	58%

Number of semifinalists from ESP; 119 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4
Probability	18%	38%	31%	12%	2.1%
Chance if	< 1%	< 1%	5%	26%	67%

Number of semifinalists from ITA; 108 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	38%	45%	15%	1.8%
Chance if	< 1%	6%	28%	72%

 

CL: Italian disappointment continues

The Italian disappointment continues. Inter lost 3-1 against Bodee Glimt and their chances crashed from 84% to 45%. It remains one of the most open ties remaining together with Atletico vs Brugge where Atletico wins in 75% of the simulations.

Champions League

Pos	Pts	Team	Pts	GD	R16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
1	24	Arsenal	24	23-4	100%	85%	62%	46%	29%
2	21	Bayern	21	22-8	100%	76%	48%	30%	15%
3	18	Liverpool	18	20-8	100%	77%	42%	19%	9%
4	17	Tottenham	17	17-7	100%	59%	21%	6%	1.9%
5	16	Barcelona	16	22-14	100%	54%	33%	14%	7%
6	16	Chelsea	16	17-10	100%	53%	31%	13%	6%
7	16	Sporting	16	17-11	100%	51%	15%	6%	2.3%
8	16	Man City	16	15-9	100%	68%	32%	19%	10%
9	15	Real Madrid	15	21-12	87%	43%	16%	8%	3.4%
10	15	Inter	15	15-7	45%	23%	10%	5%	2.4%
11	14	Paris SG	14	21-11	95.7%	50%	32%	15%	7%
12	14	Newcastle	14	17-7	>99.99%	42%	22%	8%	3.2%
13	13	Juventus	13	14-10	15%	6%	1.9%	< 1%	< 1%
14	13	Atletico	13	17-15	75%	32%	13%	4.0%	1.5%
15	13	Atalanta	13	10-10	16%	2.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
16	12	Leverkusen	12	13-14	95.8%	18%	7%	2.4%	< 1%
17	11	Dortmund	11	19-17	84%	18%	7%	2.6%	< 1%
18	11	Olympiakos	11	10-14	4.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
19	10	Brugge	10	15-17	25%	6%	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%
20	10	Galatasaray	10	9-11	85%	19%	3.5%	< 1%	< 1%
21	10	Monaco	10	8-14	4.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
22	10	Karabakh Agdam	10	13-21	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
23	9	Bodoe Glimt	9	14-15	55%	10%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%
24	9	Benfica	9	10-12	13%	4.6%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%

Last 16		Quarter-finals		Semi-finals		Final		Champions
Paris SG (96%)
		Paris SG (50%) Barcelona (25%) Chelsea (24%)
Chelsea (50%) Barcelona (50%)
				Paris SG (32%) Liverpool (22%) Barcelona (15%) Chelsea (14%)
Galatasaray (85%)
		Liverpool (41%) Tottenham (33%) Galatasaray (19%)
Liverpool (50%) Tottenham (50%)
						Arsenal (22%) Paris SG (15%) Bayern (14%) Liverpool (10%) Man City (9%)
Real Madrid (87%)
		Real Madrid (43%) Man City (31%) Sporting (22%)
Sporting (50%) Man City (50%)
				Arsenal (31%) Bayern (23%) Real Madrid (16%) Man City (15%)
Dortmund (84%)
		Arsenal (42%) Bayern (37%) Dortmund (18%)
Bayern (50%) Arsenal (50%)
								Arsenal (29%) Bayern (15%) Man City (10%) Liverpool (9%)
Newcastle (100%)
		Newcastle (42%) Barcelona (29%) Chelsea (28%)
Barcelona (50%) Chelsea (50%)
				Newcastle (22%) Liverpool (20%) Barcelona (17%) Chelsea (16%) Atletico (13%)
Atletico (75%) Brugge (25%)
		Liverpool (36%) Atletico (32%) Tottenham (26%)
Tottenham (50%) Liverpool (50%)
						Arsenal (24%) Bayern (16%) Man City (11%) Liverpool (9%)
Bodoe Glimt (55%) Inter (45%)
		Man City (37%) Sporting (29%) Inter (23%)
Man City (50%) Sporting (50%)
				Arsenal (32%) Bayern (25%) Man City (17%) Inter (10%)
Leverkusen (96%)
		Arsenal (43%) Bayern (39%) Leverkusen (18%)
Arsenal (50%) Bayern (50%)

Which countries get extra CL spots

		Score
Country	Probability	Average	Min	Max
ENG	99.85%	20.71	14.67	25.83
GER	43%	15.62	10.57	21.79
POL	22%	14.97	12	22.5
POR	22%	14.8	11.3	22.5
ITA	6%	13.57	9.57	22.79
ESP	6%	13.6	9.25	19.94
GRE	< 1%	11.97	9.2	19.8
CYP	< 1%	11.47	9.63	16.88
FRA	< 1%	11.6	8.69	16.19
CZE	< 1%	9.77	7.3	16
TUR	< 1%	9.29	6.6	16.3

Number of semifinalists from GER; 234 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4
Probability	18%	42%	30%	9%	1.1%
Chance if	7%	30%	66%	91%	99.0%

Number of semifinalists from POR; 210 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	29%	49%	20%	2.2%
Chance if	2.1%	16%	59%	94%

Number of quarterfinalists from POR; 200 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	2.9%	25%	46%	25%
Chance if	< 1%	< 1%	16%	56%

Number of quarterfinalists from POL; 187 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	28%	53%	19%	< 1%
Chance if	< 1%	20%	60%	92%

Number of quarterfinalists from GER; 186 mbit

n	1	2	3	4	5
Probability	9%	32%	40%	18%	2.0%
Chance if	4.0%	21%	50%	78%	92%

Number of semifinalists from POL; 168 mbit

n	0	1	2
Probability	68%	29%	2.7%
Chance if	9%	47%	92%

Number of finalists from GER; 143 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	44%	42%	13%	1.4%
Chance if	22%	51%	82%	97%

Number of finalists from POR; 110 mbit

n	0	1	2
Probability	65%	31%	3.6%
Chance if	11%	37%	83%

Number of quarterfinalists from ITA; 107 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4
Probability	2.6%	36%	42%	17%	2.7%
Chance if	< 1%	< 1%	2.6%	20%	57%

Number of semifinalists from ESP; 105 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4
Probability	17%	38%	31%	12%	1.9%
Chance if	< 1%	< 1%	4.5%	24%	61%