In the title race Man City slipped and lost two points against West Ham. They probably need to win their remaining matches and in the simulations they win the league 67% when they win the remaining matches.
In the CL race, Chelsea play an a difficult match away against Everton. In the relegation match we have a 6-point match between Tottenham and Forest. If Tottenham win they have 95% on a new contract compared with 76% if they lose. Forest have 65% if they win compared with 59% if they lose.
Hot Teams
Wolves: 8 points in the last 5 matches, 4.2 more than expected
Brighton: 9 points in the last 5 matches, 2.7 more than expected
Arsenal: 13 points in the last 5 matches, 2.6 more than expected
Man United: 10 points in the last 5 matches, 2.6 more than expected
Newcastle: 9 points in the last 5 matches, 2.5 more than expected
Cold Teams
Aston Villa: 4 points in the last 5 matches, 4.9 less than expected
Tottenham: 1 point in the last 5 matches, 4.8 less than expected
Forest: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 3.3 less than expected
Chelsea: 5 points in the last 5 matches, 3.0 less than expected
Leeds: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 2.5 less than expected
|
| Average Simulated
Season | Probabilities |
| Pts | Team | Pts | GD | Relegated | Top 7 | Top 6 | Top 5 | Top 4 | Win League | ECL | EL | CL |
| 70 | Arsenal | 84.8 | +48 | < 1% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 97.1% | < 1% | < 1% | 100% |
| 61 | Man City | 75.1 | +37 | < 1% | 100% | >99.99% | 99.99% | 99.86% | 2.9% | < 1% | < 1% | 99.99% |
| 54 | Man United | 66.4 | +15 | < 1% | 99.45% | 97.3% | 90% | 76% | < 1% | < 1% | 9% | 90% |
| 51 | Aston Villa | 64.9 | +8 | < 1% | 98.6% | 95% | 83% | 60% | < 1% | < 1% | 9% | 90% |
| 49 | Liverpool | 62.6 | +13 | < 1% | 95% | 85% | 63% | 37% | < 1% | 3.1% | 29% | 66% |
| 48 | Chelsea | 60.9 | +21 | < 1% | 90% | 76% | 47% | 22% | < 1% | 4.9% | 44% | 48% |
| 44 | Brentford | 57.3 | +6 | < 1% | 58% | 28% | 12% | 4.1% | < 1% | 19% | 46% | 12% |
| 42 | Newcastle | 54.4 | +2 | < 1% | 23% | 8% | 2.0% | < 1% | < 1% | 22% | 22% | 4.2% |
| 43 | Everton | 53.3 | -2 | < 1% | 15% | 5% | 1.6% | < 1% | < 1% | 16% | 14% | 1.5% |
| 41 | Bournemouth | 51.4 | -3 | < 1% | 6% | 1.5% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 10% | 6% | < 1% |
| 40 | Brighton | 51.3 | +3 | < 1% | 8% | 2.3% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 11% | 8% | < 1% |
| 41 | Fulham | 51.0 | -5 | < 1% | 5% | 1.3% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 8% | 6% | < 1% |
| 39 | Crystal Palace | 47.9 | -7 | < 1% | 1.0% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 1.6% | 32% | < 1% |
| 40 | Sunderland | 47.7 | -11 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 1.7% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 32 | Leeds | 43.0 | -11 | 6% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 2.2% | < 1% |
| 30 | Tottenham | 41.2 | -7 | 12% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 29 | Forest | 38.9 | -17 | 31% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 2.9% |
| 29 | West Ham | 37.7 | -23 | 52% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 1.9% | < 1% |
| 20 | Burnley | 27.6 | -32 | 99.53% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 16 | Wolves | 24.0 | -35 | 99.96% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
Important matches for CL race
|
| Everton vs Chelsea (6.6%) | Home Win (37%) | Draw (24%) | Away Win (38%) |
| Chelsea | 35% | 44% | 62% |
| Everton | 3.3% | < 1% | < 1% |
| Liverpool | 70% | 68% | 61% |
| Brighton vs Liverpool (4.9%) | Home Win (36%) | Draw (24%) | Away Win (40%) |
| Liverpool | 55% | 64% | 78% |
| Chelsea | 52% | 49% | 42% |
| Brighton | 1.2% | < 1% | < 1% |
Important matches for avoiding relegation
|
| Tottenham vs Forest (9.2%) | Home Win (51%) | Draw (23%) | Away Win (26%) |
| Forest | 59% | 71% | 86% |
| Tottenham | 95.3% | 86% | 76% |
| Aston Villa vs West Ham (4.3%) | Home Win (69%) | Draw (18%) | Away Win (14%) |
| West Ham | 43% | 53% | 70% |
| Forest | 72% | 66% | 56% |
| Tottenham | 90% | 87% | 83% |
| Leeds | 95% | 94% | 91% |
| West Ham | Forest | Tottenham | Leeds |
| points | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance |
| 49 | < 1% | < 1% | 100% | < 1% | < 1% | 100% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 100% | 6% | 2.5% | 100% |
| 48 | < 1% | < 1% | 100% | 1.0% | < 1% | 100% | 4.1% | 1.8% | 100% | 11% | 5.0% | 100% |
| 47 | < 1% | < 1% | 100% | 1.9% | < 1% | 100% | 7% | 2.7% | 100% | 17% | 5% | 100% |
| 46 | 1.3% | < 1% | 100% | 3.4% | 1.4% | 100% | 12% | 5% | >99.99% | 24% | 7% | 100% |
| 45 | 2.9% | 1.6% | 99.9% | 7% | 3.2% | 99.98% | 18% | 6% | 100% | 34% | 10% | >99.99% |
| 44 | 5% | 2.1% | 99.7% | 10% | 3.8% | 99.9% | 26% | 8% | 99.98% | 44% | 10% | 99.98% |
| 43 | 8% | 3.2% | 98.6% | 16% | 5% | 99.6% | 36% | 10% | 99.90% | 55% | 11% | 99.9% |
| 42 | 14% | 6% | 95.8% | 24% | 8% | 98.3% | 46% | 10% | 99.6% | 66% | 11% | 99.4% |
| 41 | 21% | 7% | 90% | 33% | 8% | 95.3% | 57% | 11% | 98.2% | 75% | 9% | 97.9% |
| 40 | 29% | 8% | 80% | 43% | 10% | 90% | 68% | 11% | 95.2% | 83% | 8% | 94% |
| 39 | 41% | 12% | 66% | 55% | 12% | 80% | 76% | 9% | 89% | 90% | 7% | 87% |
| 38 | 51% | 11% | 52% | 65% | 10% | 67% | 84% | 8% | 79% | 94% | 4.2% | 75% |
| 37 | 62% | 11% | 37% | 74% | 10% | 54% | 90% | 6% | 66% | 96.9% | 2.9% | 61% |
| 36 | 74% | 12% | 24% | 83% | 9% | 40% | 94% | 3.9% | 51% | 98.7% | 1.8% | 44% |
| 35 | 83% | 8% | 14% | 89% | 6% | 26% | 97.0% | 2.8% | 35% | 99.45% | < 1% | 27% |
| 34 | 89% | 7% | 7% | 94% | 4.6% | 16% | 98.7% | 1.7% | 22% | 99.81% | < 1% | 16% |
| 33 | 95% | 5% | 3.4% | 97.2% | 3.2% | 9% | 99.46% | < 1% | 12% | 99.97% | < 1% | 6% |
| 32 | 97.5% | 2.8% | 1.3% | 98.7% | 1.6% | 4% | 99.81% | < 1% | 5% | 100% | < 1% | 1% |
| 31 | 99.0% | 1.5% | < 1% | 99.52% | < 1% | 2% | 99.97% | < 1% | 2% | 100% | < 1% | - |
| 30 | 99.80% | < 1% | < 1% | 99.92% | < 1% | < 1% | 100% | < 1% | 1% | 100% | < 1% | - |
| 29 | 100% | < 1% | < 1% | 100% | < 1% | < 1% | 100% | < 1% | - | 100% | < 1% | - |
Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points
Most likely combo of teams in CL
| 37% | Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Man United |
| 22% | Arsenal, Aston Villa, Chelsea, Man City, Man United |
| 7% | Arsenal, Aston Villa, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Man United |
| 6% | Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Man United |
| 6% | Arsenal, Aston Villa, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City |
| 4.6% | Arsenal, Aston Villa, Brentford, Man City, Man United |
| 1.3% | Arsenal, Aston Villa, Brentford, Liverpool, Man City, Man United |
| 1.2% | Arsenal, Brentford, Liverpool, Man City, Man United |
| 1.2% | Arsenal, Aston Villa, Brentford, Liverpool, Man City |
| 1.1% | Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Man United, Newcastle |
Most likely combo of teams being relegated
| 51% | Burnley, West Ham, Wolves |
| 31% | Burnley, Forest, Wolves |
| 12% | Burnley, Tottenham, Wolves |
| 6% | Burnley, Leeds, Wolves |
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