PL: Man City decrease the gap in the title race

Arsenal dropped two points against Brentford. On average the finish seven points ahead of city and win the league 86% of the simulations. At the bottom we have seven teams involved in the relegation battle. Most important are the matches involving Forest and West Ham, as detailed in table further down. In most simulations, team #17 finishes on 39-43 points. 

Hot Teams
Man United: 13 points in the last 5 matches, 5.9 more than expected
Bournemouth: 11 points in the last 5 matches, 4.8 more than expected
West Ham: 10 points in the last 5 matches, 4.4 more than expected
Chelsea: 13 points in the last 5 matches, 3.3 more than expected
Leeds: 8 points in the last 5 matches, 2.4 more than expected

Cold Teams
Brighton: 2 points in the last 5 matches, 5.3 less than expected
Tottenham: 2 points in the last 5 matches, 5.1 less than expected
Newcastle: 4 points in the last 5 matches, 3.2 less than expected
Fulham: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 3.2 less than expected
Crystal Palace: 4 points in the last 5 matches, 2.6 less than expected

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
54	Arsenal	81.7	+48	< 1%	100%	>99.99%	>99.99%	99.99%	86%	< 1%	< 1%	>99.99%
53	Man City	74.4	+38	< 1%	>99.99%	99.95%	99.70%	98.6%	12%	< 1%	< 1%	99.73%
50	Aston Villa	71.4	+18	< 1%	99.91%	99.50%	97.7%	92%	2.6%	< 1%	1.3%	98.6%
42	Liverpool	63.3	+14	< 1%	93%	83%	63%	37%	< 1%	4.2%	27%	66%
44	Chelsea	62.8	+21	< 1%	93%	83%	62%	36%	< 1%	4.5%	28%	64%
45	Man United	62.6	+12	< 1%	90%	77%	55%	30%	< 1%	7%	33%	55%
40	Brentford	57.3	+7	< 1%	54%	30%	13%	4.4%	< 1%	18%	41%	13%
36	Newcastle	54.2	+2	< 1%	25%	11%	3.7%	< 1%	< 1%	18%	22%	6%
37	Bournemouth	53.6	-2	< 1%	20%	8%	2.7%	< 1%	< 1%	17%	16%	2.7%
37	Everton	52.5	-3	< 1%	14%	5%	1.8%	< 1%	< 1%	13%	11%	1.8%
34	Fulham	50.6	-5	< 1%	7%	2.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	8%	9%	< 1%
31	Brighton	47.9	+1	< 1%	2.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	4.2%	4.0%	< 1%
32	Crystal Palace	46.6	-8	1.9%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.4%	34%	< 1%
33	Sunderland	46.3	-14	2.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.8%	1.3%	< 1%
30	Leeds	45.4	-11	3.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.1%	2.1%	< 1%
29	Tottenham	45.1	-2	3.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.3%	< 1%	1.8%
27	Forest	41.5	-16	17%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	6%
24	West Ham	36.1	-25	75%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.1%	< 1%
18	Burnley	30.7	-29	95.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
9	Wolves	20.5	-42	99.99%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Important matches for title race
Tottenham vs Arsenal (3%)	Home Win (25%)	Draw (23%)	Away Win (53%)
Arsenal	78%	83%	90%
Man City	17%	14%	8%
Aston Villa	4.3%	3.2%	1.6%

 

Important matches for CL race
Forest vs Liverpool (3.2%)	Home Win (32%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (44%)
Liverpool	56%	63%	75%
Man United	59%	56%	52%
Chelsea	68%	65%	61%
Brentford	15%	14%	12%
Chelsea vs Burnley (2.6%)	Home Win (72%)	Draw (17%)	Away Win (12%)
Chelsea	69%	55%	48%
Man United	54%	58%	61%
Liverpool	64%	68%	71%
Brentford	12%	15%	16%

 

Important matches for avoiding relegation
West Ham vs Bournemouth (4.6%)	Home Win (39%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (37%)
West Ham	36%	22%	16%
Forest	79%	85%	87%
Tottenham	95.2%	97.0%	97.7%
Leeds	95%	96.7%	97.4%
Forest vs Liverpool (2.6%)	Home Win (32%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (44%)
Forest	91%	83%	78%
West Ham	21%	25%	29%
Burnley	3.2%	4.4%	5%

	Burnley			West Ham			Forest			Leeds			Tottenham			Sunderland			Crystal Palace
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
53	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	100%	5%	2.0%	100%	4.6%	1.7%	100%	8%	2.8%	100%	8%	2.9%	100%
52	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	100%	1.3%	< 1%	100%	8%	2.9%	100%	7%	2.7%	100%	12%	3.8%	100%	12%	4.1%	100%
51	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	100%	2.1%	< 1%	100%	12%	3.7%	100%	11%	3.7%	100%	17%	4.7%	100%	18%	5%	100%
50	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	100%	3.6%	1.5%	100%	17%	5%	100%	16%	4.6%	100%	23%	6%	100%	24%	6%	100%
49	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	100%	6%	2.2%	100%	24%	6%	100%	22%	6%	100%	30%	7%	100%	32%	8%	100%
48	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	100%	9%	2.9%	100%	31%	7%	100%	29%	7%	100%	38%	8%	100%	41%	9%	100%
47	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	99.9%	13%	4.2%	100%	39%	9%	100%	37%	8%	100%	47%	9%	100%	50%	9%	100%
46	< 1%	< 1%	100%	1.5%	< 1%	99.9%	18%	5%	>99.99%	48%	9%	>99.99%	46%	9%	>99.99%	56%	9%	>99.99%	59%	9%	>99.99%
45	< 1%	< 1%	100%	2.5%	1.0%	99.4%	24%	6%	99.94%	57%	9%	99.98%	55%	9%	>99.99%	65%	9%	99.96%	68%	9%	99.98%
44	< 1%	< 1%	99%	4.2%	1.7%	98%	32%	8%	99.7%	66%	9%	99.9%	64%	9%	99.94%	73%	8%	99.8%	76%	8%	99.9%
43	< 1%	< 1%	95%	7%	2.5%	93%	41%	8%	99.1%	74%	8%	99.4%	72%	8%	99.7%	80%	7%	99.3%	83%	7%	99.6%
42	< 1%	< 1%	89%	10%	3.3%	85%	49%	9%	97.4%	81%	7%	98.3%	79%	7%	98.9%	86%	6%	98.0%	88%	6%	98.3%
41	1.5%	< 1%	76%	15%	4.7%	73%	59%	9%	94%	87%	6%	95.3%	85%	6%	97.0%	91%	4.9%	95%	93%	4.1%	95.8%
40	2.5%	< 1%	60%	21%	6%	58%	67%	9%	88%	92%	4.5%	90%	90%	4.9%	93%	95%	3.5%	89%	95.7%	3.0%	90%
39	3.9%	1.5%	43%	28%	7%	43%	75%	8%	79%	95%	3.2%	82%	94%	3.6%	86%	96.9%	2.3%	80%	97.6%	2.0%	82%
38	6%	2.3%	27%	36%	8%	29%	82%	7%	69%	97.1%	2.2%	70%	96.1%	2.5%	78%	98.5%	1.5%	68%	98.8%	1.2%	71%
37	9%	3.1%	16%	45%	9%	18%	88%	6%	58%	98.4%	1.4%	57%	97.8%	1.7%	66%	99.32%	< 1%	56%	99.47%	< 1%	57%
36	13%	4.0%	8%	55%	9%	11%	92%	4.3%	46%	99.23%	< 1%	42%	98.9%	1.0%	55%	99.73%	< 1%	42%	99.79%	< 1%	43%
35	19%	5%	4.0%	64%	10%	6%	95.2%	3.2%	34%	99.67%	< 1%	31%	99.44%	< 1%	42%	99.92%	< 1%	30%	99.92%	< 1%	29%
34	25%	7%	1.7%	73%	9%	2.9%	97.3%	2.1%	23%	99.87%	< 1%	19%	99.76%	< 1%	30%	99.99%	< 1%	20%	99.98%	< 1%	20%
33	33%	7%	< 1%	81%	7%	1.3%	98.6%	1.3%	15%	99.95%	< 1%	11%	99.91%	< 1%	20%	100%	< 1%	18%	>99.99%	< 1%	13%
32	41%	9%	< 1%	87%	6%	< 1%	99.34%	< 1%	9%	99.99%	< 1%	5%	99.97%	< 1%	14%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-
31	50%	9%	< 1%	92%	4.9%	< 1%	99.73%	< 1%	5%	>99.99%	< 1%	< 1%	>99.99%	< 1%	6%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-
30	59%	9%	< 1%	95.3%	3.3%	< 1%	99.90%	< 1%	2%	100%	< 1%	-	>99.99%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-
29	68%	9%	< 1%	97.6%	2.3%	< 1%	99.97%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-
28	76%	8%	< 1%	98.9%	1.3%	< 1%	>99.99%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-
27	83%	7%	< 1%	99.54%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-
26	89%	6%	< 1%	99.85%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-
25	93%	4.2%	< 1%	99.98%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

PL: Man City turn Anfield upside down

Man City go from 3% chance to 8% chance in a few minutes with two late goals at Anfield. It means they in practice still have the title in their own hands. They can maximally reach 89 points and if they do that they win the title in 97% of the simulations. Aston Villa can maximally reach 86 points and if they do that they win 70% of the simulations. In the table below you can see how the chances decrease with fewer points.

In the CL race, Premier League will most likely (>99.5%) get five slots, and the trio Chelsea, Man United, and Liverpool are fighting over the remaining two slots.

In midweek, Everton and Bournemouth are playing a 6-point game in the race for a ticket to Europe.

In the relegation battle, West Ham have gained some hope (24%) after 9 points in the last five matches (3p more than expected). Forest  are three points ahead and relegated in 13% of simulations, and also Leeds (6%), Tottenham (2.4%), and Sunderland (2.3%) are not out of danger. In the table at the bottom, you can see how the probabilities varies depending on how many points a team manage to take.

 

Important matches for avoiding relegation
West Ham vs Man United (4.2%)	Home Win (34%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (42%)
West Ham	35%	22%	17%
Forest	82%	88%	90%
Leeds	92%	95%	96.0%
Tottenham	96.5%	97.9%	98.4%
Sunderland	96.7%	98.0%	98.4%
Forest vs Wolves (2.3%)	Home Win (62%)	Draw (20%)	Away Win (18%)
Forest	91%	83%	78%
West Ham	22%	27%	30%

	Burnley			West Ham			Forest			Leeds			Tottenham			Sunderland			Crystal Palace
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
54	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	100%	3.2%	1.3%	100%	7%	2.4%	100%	9%	2.8%	100%	13%	4.2%	100%
53	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	100%	1.5%	< 1%	100%	5.0%	1.8%	100%	10%	3.2%	100%	12%	3.8%	100%	19%	5%	100%
52	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	100%	2.6%	1.1%	100%	8%	2.7%	100%	14%	4.4%	100%	17%	4.8%	100%	25%	7%	100%
51	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	100%	4.2%	1.6%	100%	11%	3.7%	100%	20%	5%	100%	23%	6%	100%	33%	8%	100%
50	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	100%	6%	2.2%	100%	16%	4.6%	100%	26%	6%	100%	30%	7%	100%	41%	8%	100%
49	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	100%	10%	3.3%	100%	22%	6%	100%	34%	8%	100%	38%	8%	100%	50%	9%	100%
48	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	100%	14%	4.3%	100%	29%	7%	>99.99%	42%	8%	100%	46%	8%	100%	59%	9%	100%
47	< 1%	< 1%	-	1.2%	< 1%	99.9%	19%	5%	>99.99%	37%	8%	100%	50%	9%	100%	55%	9%	>99.99%	67%	8%	100%
46	< 1%	< 1%	100%	2.1%	< 1%	99.7%	26%	7%	99.97%	45%	9%	99.99%	59%	9%	>99.99%	63%	9%	99.98%	75%	8%	99.99%
45	< 1%	< 1%	99%	3.5%	1.4%	98%	33%	7%	99.9%	54%	9%	99.9%	67%	8%	99.97%	71%	8%	99.9%	82%	7%	99.95%
44	< 1%	< 1%	97%	5%	2.0%	95%	41%	8%	99.5%	63%	9%	99.6%	75%	8%	99.8%	79%	7%	99.5%	87%	5%	99.7%
43	< 1%	< 1%	92%	8%	2.9%	88%	50%	9%	98.2%	71%	8%	98.6%	81%	7%	99.4%	85%	6%	98.5%	92%	4.4%	99.0%
42	< 1%	< 1%	82%	12%	3.9%	77%	59%	9%	95.9%	78%	7%	96.6%	87%	5%	98.0%	90%	4.9%	96.3%	95%	3.2%	97.1%
41	< 1%	< 1%	69%	17%	4.9%	63%	67%	8%	92%	85%	6%	93%	91%	4.3%	95%	94%	3.8%	92%	96.9%	2.1%	93%
40	< 1%	< 1%	50%	23%	6%	48%	75%	8%	86%	90%	5.0%	87%	94%	3.2%	91%	96.2%	2.7%	86%	98.3%	1.4%	87%
39	1.6%	< 1%	36%	31%	7%	35%	82%	7%	78%	93%	3.7%	78%	96.5%	2.3%	84%	97.9%	1.7%	78%	99.12%	< 1%	77%
38	2.6%	1.0%	23%	39%	8%	23%	87%	5%	68%	95.9%	2.6%	67%	98.0%	1.5%	75%	99.0%	1.1%	67%	99.58%	< 1%	66%
37	4.2%	1.5%	13%	48%	9%	15%	91%	4.4%	58%	97.7%	1.8%	56%	98.9%	< 1%	65%	99.56%	< 1%	55%	99.83%	< 1%	53%
36	6%	2.1%	7%	57%	9%	9%	95%	3.2%	46%	98.8%	1.1%	43%	99.45%	< 1%	53%	99.83%	< 1%	44%	99.94%	< 1%	36%
35	9%	3.1%	3.0%	66%	9%	4.7%	96.7%	2.2%	36%	99.42%	< 1%	31%	99.75%	< 1%	43%	99.95%	< 1%	31%	99.98%	< 1%	28%
34	13%	4.0%	1.4%	74%	8%	2.4%	98.2%	1.5%	26%	99.75%	< 1%	22%	99.90%	< 1%	30%	>99.99%	< 1%	24%	>99.99%	< 1%	21%
33	18%	5%	< 1%	81%	7%	1.1%	99.07%	< 1%	17%	99.91%	< 1%	13%	99.97%	< 1%	22%	100%	< 1%	-	>99.99%	< 1%	-
32	25%	6%	< 1%	87%	6%	< 1%	99.56%	< 1%	11%	99.97%	< 1%	6%	>99.99%	< 1%	15%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-
31	32%	7%	< 1%	92%	4.7%	< 1%	99.82%	< 1%	6%	>99.99%	< 1%	2%	>99.99%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-
30	40%	8%	< 1%	95.2%	3.3%	< 1%	99.93%	< 1%	3%	>99.99%	< 1%	-	>99.99%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-
29	49%	9%	< 1%	97.3%	2.1%	< 1%	99.98%	< 1%	2%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-
28	58%	9%	< 1%	98.7%	1.3%	< 1%	>99.99%	< 1%	1%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-
27	66%	9%	< 1%	99.43%	< 1%	< 1%	>99.99%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-
26	74%	8%	< 1%	99.78%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-
25	81%	7%	< 1%	99.93%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points