in silico soccer

Wednesday, November 4, 2026

CL: A last chance for Porto vs Napoli

Porto are not out if they lose but it's very important for them to at least draw against Napoli. The match is important also for Napoli, which are >90% clinched advancement if they win at Porto.

For top-8, the match between Borussia Dortmund and Real Betis is important.

Clinching Scenarios

Arsenal clinch Knockout if they win against Slavia Prague (72%)
Real Madrid clinch Knockout if they win against AEK Athens (70%)
Liverpool clinch Knockout if they win against Fenerbahce (54%)
Real Betis clinch Knockout if they win against Borussia Dortmund (22%)

Pos	Pts	Team	GD	Median Pts	50% CI	Top 24	Top 16	Top 8	R16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
1	12	Paris Saint-Germain	+22	19	18-21	100%	99.94%	96.0%	99.28%	72%	40%	19%	8%
2	9	Real Madrid	+16	19	18-21	>99.99%	99.81%	95%	99.07%	73%	41%	20%	9%
3	7	Arsenal	+9	19	17-20	>99.99%	99.44%	88%	98.8%	81%	56%	37%	22%
4	9	Barcelona	+13	18	16-19	>99.99%	99.33%	85%	98.1%	77%	50%	30%	16%
5	9	Liverpool	+8	18	16-20	99.94%	98.1%	78%	95%	60%	27%	11%	4.4%
6	8	Bayern Munich	+18	17	16-20	99.97%	98.9%	82%	97.9%	78%	52%	33%	19%
7	6	Man City	+7	16	14-18	99.34%	92%	56%	93%	67%	41%	24%	12%
8	9	Aston Villa	+6	16	14-18	99.83%	93%	53%	86%	44%	17%	6%	2.0%
9	9	Real Betis	+1	15	13-16	99.33%	86%	34%	69%	21%	4.9%	0.98%	0.23%
10	6	Inter Milan	+5	14	12-15	98.3%	82%	27%	80%	41%	19%	8%	3.0%
11	9	Sporting CP	+3	13	12-15	98.0%	73%	19%	66%	23%	7%	1.9%	0.55%
12	6	Club Brugge	+2	13	11-15	92%	64%	19%	56%	17%	4.1%	0.87%	0.20%
13	6	Borussia Dortmund	+2	13	11-15	95.3%	69%	19%	67%	26%	9%	2.7%	0.87%
14	7	VfB Stuttgart	+5	12	11-14	92%	58%	11%	48%	11%	2.5%	0.45%	0.10%
15	4	Atletico Madrid	+4	12	10-14	90%	56%	8%	64%	26%	10%	3.6%	1.3%
16	6	Como	+1	12	10-13	89%	52%	10%	47%	11%	2.5%	0.49%	0.11%
17	6	Galatasaray	0	11	10-13	82%	39%	3.7%	37%	8%	1.7%	0.29%	< 0.1%
18	6	Man United	0	11	9-13	81%	39%	4.5%	44%	12%	3.5%	0.83%	0.23%
19	4	Roma	+3	10	8-11	72%	28%	1.9%	39%	10%	3.1%	0.75%	0.21%
20	3	Napoli	0	10	9-12	73%	30%	2.5%	35%	8%	2.0%	0.39%	< 0.1%
21	4	PSV Eindhoven	-2	10	8-12	63%	25%	2.9%	25%	4.5%	0.79%	0.12%	< 0.1%
22	3	RB Leipzig	-4	10	8-12	66%	26%	2.5%	31%	7%	1.8%	0.38%	< 0.1%
23	3	Villarreal	-7	10	8-12	59%	18%	0.37%	24%	4.7%	1.0%	0.17%	< 0.1%
24	4	Bodoe Glimt	-5	9	7-11	49%	13%	0.55%	17%	2.6%	0.44%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
25	6	LASK	-7	9	7-10	44%	9%	0.25%	6%	0.29%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
26	3	Lens	-7	9	7-10	46%	13%	0.80%	19%	3.9%	0.83%	0.14%	< 0.1%
27	4	Shakhtar Donetsk	-2	8	7-10	40%	7%	0.21%	8%	0.67%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
28	0	Porto	-3	8	6-10	38%	8%	0.15%	16%	3.8%	0.93%	0.19%	< 0.1%
29	2	Fenerbahce	-5	8	6-10	39%	10%	0.45%	14%	2.3%	0.41%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
30	1	Viking	-4	7	5-9	28%	5.0%	0.13%	6%	0.60%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
31	3	Feyenoord	-8	7	6-9	28%	5%	< 0.1%	7%	0.87%	0.12%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
32	3	AEK Athens	-12	7	5-9	19%	3.1%	< 0.1%	3.8%	0.36%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
33	1	Lille	-6	5	4-7	9%	0.56%		2.5%	0.39%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
34	1	Slavia Prague	-11	5	3-6	6%	0.47%	< 0.1%	1.5%	0.20%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
35	3	Sabah	-10	4	3-6	3.8%	0.24%	< 0.1%	0.25%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
36	0	Slovan Bratislava	-20	2	1-4	0.23%	< 0.1%		< 0.1%	< 0.1%

Expected Requirement

	Top 24		Top 16		Top 8
	Pts	GD	Pts	GD	Pts	GD
1%	10	16-16	13	17-12	18	20-12
5%	10	8-10	13	17-15	17	17-6
25%	10	7-16	12	25-15	16	18-9
50%	9	11-14	12	14-13	16	17-12
75%	9	10-17	12	15-19	15	20-11
95%	8	11-15	11	10-10	15	16-16
99%	8	15-23	11	11-19	14	15-10

Important for Top-8
Borussia Dortmund vs Real Betis (16.9%)
	Home Win (56%)	Draw (22%)	Away Win (22%)
Real Betis	21%	38%	66%
Borussia Dortmund	28%	10%	3.7%
RB Leipzig vs Man City (13.9%)
	Home Win (21%)	Draw (21%)	Away Win (58%)
Man City	28%	44%	71%
RB Leipzig	9%	1.8%	0.22%
PSV Eindhoven vs Club Brugge (9.4%)
	Home Win (41%)	Draw (21%)	Away Win (39%)
Club Brugge	7%	14%	33%
PSV Eindhoven	6%	1.0%	0.38%
Fenerbahce vs Liverpool (8.9%)
	Home Win (24%)	Draw (22%)	Away Win (54%)
Liverpool	58%	73%	90%
Fenerbahce	1.7%	0.10%	< 0.1%
Lens vs Como (5.7%)
	Home Win (45%)	Draw (25%)	Away Win (30%)
Como	3.1%	7%	21%
Lens	1.6%	0.3%	< 0.1%
Slavia Prague vs Arsenal (5.6%)
	Home Win (10%)	Draw (18%)	Away Win (72%)
Arsenal	67%	78%	94%

Important for Knockout Stage
Porto vs Napoli (17.8%)
	Home Win (45%)	Draw (28%)	Away Win (27%)
Porto	58%	27%	17%
Napoli	60%	75%	93%
Lens vs Como (16.9%)
	Home Win (45%)	Draw (25%)	Away Win (30%)
Lens	67%	36%	24%
Como	81%	91%	99.3%
PSV Eindhoven vs Club Brugge (15.9%)
	Home Win (41%)	Draw (21%)	Away Win (39%)
PSV Eindhoven	84%	59%	44%
Club Brugge	85%	93%	99.2%
Viking vs Sabah (9.9%)
	Home Win (67%)	Draw (17%)	Away Win (16%)
Viking	36%	14%	7%
Sabah	1.2%	3.3%	15%
Fenerbahce vs Liverpool (8.6%)
	Home Win (24%)	Draw (22%)	Away Win (54%)
Fenerbahce	66%	41%	26%
RB Leipzig vs Man City (7.2%)
	Home Win (21%)	Draw (21%)	Away Win (58%)
RB Leipzig	88%	69%	56%
Man City	97.7%	99.2%	99.96%
AEK Athens vs Real Madrid (5.7%)
	Home Win (13%)	Draw (18%)	Away Win (70%)
AEK Athens	47%	22%	13%

Tuesday, November 3, 2026

CL: Lille going to Bodoe Glimt in psssibly their last chance.

Lille have <10% to proceed to knockout stage unless they manage to win against Bodoe Glimt. Another important match for who advance to last 24 is when Shakhtar play Sporting in London. Twelve points are almost guaranteed to suffice for last 24, so PSG and Aston Villa can clinch a spot in Top 24.

Clinching Scenarios

Paris Saint-Germain clinch Knockout if they win against Villarreal (55%)
Aston Villa clinch Knockout if they win against Barcelona (18%)

Pos	Pts	Team	GD	Median Pts	50% CI	Top 24	Top 16	Top 8	R16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
1	9	Real Madrid	+16	19	18-21	>99.99%	99.79%	95%	99.06%	72%	41%	20%	9%
2	9	Paris Saint-Germain	+11	19	16-21	99.99%	99.03%	88%	97.6%	68%	37%	18%	8%
3	7	Arsenal	+9	19	17-20	99.99%	99.39%	88%	98.8%	81%	57%	37%	22%
4	9	Liverpool	+8	18	16-20	99.94%	97.9%	79%	95%	60%	28%	11%	4.5%
5	6	Barcelona	+11	17	15-19	99.83%	96.9%	74%	96.4%	74%	48%	29%	16%
6	5	Bayern Munich	+14	16	14-18	99.54%	95%	64%	95.1%	73%	49%	31%	18%
7	9	Aston Villa	+10	16	14-18	99.89%	95%	63%	89%	48%	19%	6%	2.2%
8	6	Man City	+7	16	14-18	99.31%	92%	57%	93%	67%	42%	24%	13%
9	9	Real Betis	+1	15	13-16	99.29%	86%	36%	69%	22%	5%	1.0%	0.25%
10	7	VfB Stuttgart	+7	13	11-16	95.2%	71%	24%	58%	16%	3.6%	0.65%	0.15%
11	4	Atletico Madrid	+6	13	11-15	94%	69%	22%	71%	32%	13%	4.6%	1.7%
12	3	Inter Milan	+3	13	11-15	93%	66%	18%	73%	36%	17%	7%	2.8%
13	6	Club Brugge	+2	13	11-15	92%	64%	19%	56%	17%	4.4%	0.93%	0.24%
14	6	Borussia Dortmund	+2	13	11-15	95.1%	68%	19%	67%	26%	9%	2.9%	0.92%
15	6	Sporting CP	+3	12	10-14	90%	57%	13%	57%	20%	6%	1.7%	0.50%
16	6	Como	+1	12	10-13	89%	51%	10%	46%	12%	2.7%	0.53%	0.11%
17	4	Roma	+3	11	9-13	82%	43%	7%	47%	15%	4.3%	1.1%	0.29%
18	3	Villarreal	+2	10	9-12	74%	34%	4.4%	33%	7%	1.6%	0.27%	< 0.1%
19	3	Napoli	0	10	9-12	73%	30%	2.6%	34%	8%	2.0%	0.41%	< 0.1%
20	4	PSV Eindhoven	-3	10	8-12	63%	25%	3.1%	25%	4.7%	0.87%	0.13%	< 0.1%
21	3	Man United	-3	10	7-12	62%	24%	2.7%	32%	9%	2.8%	0.67%	0.18%
22	3	Galatasaray	-4	10	8-12	63%	23%	2.2%	27%	6%	1.3%	0.23%	< 0.1%
23	3	RB Leipzig	-4	10	8-12	65%	26%	2.7%	31%	8%	1.9%	0.40%	< 0.1%
24	3	Bodoe Glimt	-7	10	8-12	59%	20%	1.8%	21%	3.6%	0.63%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
25	4	Shakhtar Donetsk	-2	9	7-11	53%	15%	1.2%	12%	1.1%	0.11%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
26	3	Lens	-7	9	7-10	46%	13%	0.89%	18%	4.0%	0.87%	0.15%	< 0.1%
27	0	Porto	-3	8	6-10	38%	8%	0.18%	16%	3.9%	0.99%	0.20%	< 0.1%
28	3	Feyenoord	-5	8	6-10	40%	11%	0.65%	11%	1.5%	0.20%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
29	2	Fenerbahce	-5	8	6-10	39%	9%	0.50%	13%	2.4%	0.43%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
30	1	Viking	-4	7	5-9	28%	4.8%	0.15%	6%	0.66%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
31	3	LASK	-5	7	6-9	29%	4.9%	0.15%	3.6%	0.21%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
32	3	AEK Athens	-12	7	5-9	19%	3.0%	< 0.1%	3.8%	0.38%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
33	0	Lille	-9	6	4-7	12%	1.5%	< 0.1%	3.7%	0.63%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
34	1	Slavia Prague	-11	5	3-6	6%	0.46%	< 0.1%	1.4%	0.21%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
35	3	Sabah	-10	4	3-6	3.7%	0.24%	< 0.1%	0.24%	< 0.1%
36	0	Slovan Bratislava	-20	3	1-4	1.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%

Expected Requirement

	Top 24		Top 16		Top 8
	Pts	GD	Pts	GD	Pts	GD
1%	10	15-14	13	20-14	18	18-12
5%	10	13-15	13	15-12	17	19-10
25%	10	11-20	13	9-13	16	23-15
50%	9	14-17	12	13-11	16	17-13
75%	9	10-17	12	12-15	15	19-11
95%	8	10-14	11	14-14	14	23-12
99%	8	13-22	11	8-14	14	20-16

Important for Top-8
Atletico Madrid vs Bayern Munich (23.6%)
	Home Win (30%)	Draw (21%)	Away Win (49%)
Bayern Munich	37%	59%	82%
Atletico Madrid	46%	17%	9%
Barcelona vs Aston Villa (15.6%)
	Home Win (65%)	Draw (17%)	Away Win (18%)
Barcelona	85%	62%	45%
Aston Villa	54%	70%	89%
Galatasaray vs VfB Stuttgart (10.2%)
	Home Win (47%)	Draw (22%)	Away Win (31%)
VfB Stuttgart	12%	20%	46%
Galatasaray	4.3%	0.7%	0.13%
Villarreal vs Paris Saint-Germain (10.1%)
	Home Win (24%)	Draw (20%)	Away Win (55%)
Paris Saint-Germain	73%	84%	95.4%
Villarreal	14%	3.3%	0.8%
Feyenoord vs Inter Milan (7.3%)
	Home Win (20%)	Draw (20%)	Away Win (60%)
Inter Milan	2.7%	8%	26%
Feyenoord	2.7%	0.4%	< 0.1%
Man United vs Roma (6.8%)
	Home Win (46%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (30%)
Roma	1.9%	4.3%	18%
Man United	5%	1.0%	0.29%
Shakhtar Donetsk vs Sporting CP (5.7%)
	Home Win (22%)	Draw (23%)	Away Win (54%)
Sporting CP	3.1%	7%	20%
Shakhtar Donetsk	4.4%	0.6%	0.21%

Important for Knockout Stage
Bodoe Glimt vs Lille (18.1%)
	Home Win (47%)	Draw (25%)	Away Win (28%)
Bodoe Glimt	77%	50%	35%
Lille	4.1%	9%	30%
Shakhtar Donetsk vs Sporting CP (17.6%)
	Home Win (22%)	Draw (23%)	Away Win (54%)
Shakhtar Donetsk	83%	56%	39%
Sporting CP	74%	86%	98.2%
Man United vs Roma (16.6%)
	Home Win (46%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (30%)
Man United	81%	54%	41%
Roma	71%	84%	96.3%
Galatasaray vs VfB Stuttgart (14%)
	Home Win (47%)	Draw (22%)	Away Win (31%)
Galatasaray	82%	55%	41%
VfB Stuttgart	91%	96.7%	99.96%
Feyenoord vs Inter Milan (12.4%)
	Home Win (20%)	Draw (20%)	Away Win (60%)
Feyenoord	69%	42%	29%
Inter Milan	81%	90%	98.2%
LASK vs Slovan Bratislava (9.1%)
	Home Win (60%)	Draw (20%)	Away Win (20%)
LASK	40%	16%	9%
Slovan Bratislava	0.23%	0.7%	4.4%
Villarreal vs Paris Saint-Germain (6.5%)
	Home Win (24%)	Draw (20%)	Away Win (55%)
Villarreal	93%	77%	65%

Monday, November 2, 2026

PL: Brighton hosting Brentford in CL clash

Important match for CL race
Brighton vs Brentford (2.4%)
	Home Win (51%)	Draw (23%)	Away Win (26%)
Brighton	82%	74%	68%
Brentford	10%	14%	21%

	Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
24	Arsenal	88.3	+48		>99.99%	>99.99%	99.99%	99.94%	74%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	>99.99%
21	Man City	82.1	+45		99.98%	99.93%	99.75%	99.12%	25%	< 0.1%	0.21%	99.76%
15	Liverpool	69.1	+25		95.7%	91%	84%	69%	0.67%	2.8%	12%	84%
19	Brighton	67.2	+30	< 0.1%	93%	87%	77%	60%	0.47%	2.0%	19%	77%
16	Chelsea	62.0	+13	< 0.1%	75%	62%	45%	26%	< 0.1%	9%	29%	44%
12	Aston Villa	61.8	+12	< 0.1%	74%	61%	43%	24%	< 0.1%	9%	30%	44%
12	Bournemouth	57.3	+9	< 0.1%	50%	34%	20%	9%	< 0.1%	12%	23%	35%
14	Brentford	55.4	+9	0.12%	39%	25%	14%	6%	< 0.1%	13%	25%	14%
11	Newcastle	53.8	+1	0.28%	29%	17%	9%	3.6%	< 0.1%	12%	21%	9%
13	Everton	49.4	-5	1.2%	11%	5%	2.4%	0.81%	< 0.1%	11%	9%	2.4%
12	Tottenham	48.8	-6	1.6%	10%	4.8%	2.1%	0.69%		6%	8%	2.1%
11	Leeds	48.8	-3	1.6%	10%	5.0%	2.1%	0.68%	< 0.1%	7%	8%	2.1%
7	Man United	48.4	-3	2.0%	9%	4.7%	2.0%	0.66%		6%	9%	2.2%
7	Crystal Palace	43.7	-18	8%	2.2%	0.93%	0.32%	< 0.1%		6%	3.0%	5%
9	Fulham	43.6	-10	7%	2.2%	0.93%	0.32%	< 0.1%		2.2%	3.1%	0.33%
6	Forest	41.0	-14	15%	0.89%	0.34%	0.10%	< 0.1%		1.0%	1.9%	0.11%
11	Ipswich	35.0	-32	49%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%		< 0.1%	0.26%	< 0.1%
5	Sunderland	32.9	-28	62%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%		0.56%	0.40%	1.3%
9	Coventry	32.6	-35	66%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%		< 0.1%	0.20%	< 0.1%
11	Hull	28.8	-38	86%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%				< 0.1%	< 0.1%

Titles

Team	League	FA Cup	League Cup	Europe
Arsenal	74%	28%		22%
Man City	25%	21%	60%	13%
Liverpool	0.67%	10%	25%	4.5%
Brighton	0.47%	5%		41%
Chelsea	< 0.1%	4.5%
Aston Villa	< 0.1%	7%		2.2%
Bournemouth	< 0.1%	3.9%	5%	19%
Brentford	< 0.1%	3.0%
Newcastle	< 0.1%	3.5%
Everton	< 0.1%	1.6%	4.3%
Tottenham		1.6%
Leeds	< 0.1%	1.6%
Man United		2.8%		0.18%
Crystal Palace		1.5%	4.6%	5%
Fulham		1.4%
Forest		1.2%
Ipswich		0.21%
Sunderland		0.38%	0.52%	1.2%
Coventry		0.19%
Hull		< 0.1%

Coming Matches

Home		Draw		Away
Everton	61%	23%	16%	Coventry
Leeds	45%	25%	30%	Tottenham
Arsenal	90%	8%	2.4%	Hull
Fulham	36%	25%	39%	Newcastle
Forest	16%	21%	62%	Man City
Brighton	51%	23%	26%	Brentford
Crystal Palace	26%	24%	50%	Liverpool
Ipswich	22%	22%	56%	Bournemouth
Sunderland	23%	25%	51%	Chelsea

Most likely combo of teams in CL

14%	Arsenal, Brighton, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City
14%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Brighton, Liverpool, Man City
6%	Arsenal, Bournemouth, Brighton, Liverpool, Man City
4.6%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Bournemouth, Brighton, Liverpool, Man City
4.6%	Arsenal, Bournemouth, Brighton, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City
4.2%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City
3.6%	Arsenal, Brentford, Brighton, Liverpool, Man City
3.1%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Brighton, Chelsea, Man City
2.4%	Arsenal, Brighton, Liverpool, Man City, Newcastle
2.1%	Arsenal, Bournemouth, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City

Most likely combo of teams being relegated

26%	Coventry, Hull, Sunderland
17%	Coventry, Hull, Ipswich
16%	Hull, Ipswich, Sunderland
6%	Coventry, Ipswich, Sunderland
4.4%	Coventry, Forest, Hull
3.4%	Forest, Hull, Sunderland
2.6%	Forest, Hull, Ipswich
2.3%	Coventry, Crystal Palace, Hull
2.1%	Coventry, Fulham, Hull
1.9%	Crystal Palace, Hull, Sunderland

Subscribe To