In EL we have a few important matches tonight Levski Sofia vs Jagiellonia Bialystok and NEC vs Omonia.
In CL, Real and PSG have both won the first four matches and have secured advancement to the knockout stage.
Champions League
| Pos | Pts | Team | GD | Median Pts | 50% CI | Top 24 | Top 16 | Top 8 | R16 | QF | Semi | Final | Champ |
| 1 | 12 | Real Madrid | +10 | 21 | 19-22 | 100% | 99.97% | 97.6% | 99.60% | 74% | 42% | 21% | 9% |
| 2 | 12 | Paris Saint-Germain | +22 | 19 | 18-21 | 100% | 99.93% | 95.4% | 99.18% | 72% | 40% | 19% | 8% |
| 3 | 10 | Arsenal | +13 | 19 | 17-20 | >99.99% | 99.88% | 93% | 99.32% | 82% | 58% | 37% | 22% |
| 4 | 9 | Barcelona | +13 | 18 | 16-19 | >99.99% | 99.24% | 84% | 98.0% | 77% | 49% | 29% | 16% |
| 5 | 8 | Bayern Munich | +18 | 17 | 16-20 | 99.97% | 98.7% | 81% | 97.8% | 78% | 52% | 32% | 18% |
| 6 | 9 | Man City | +7 | 17 | 15-18 | 99.95% | 97.4% | 69% | 95.9% | 72% | 44% | 25% | 13% |
| 7 | 9 | Liverpool | +6 | 16 | 14-18 | 99.86% | 94% | 56% | 89% | 52% | 23% | 9% | 3.7% |
| 8 | 9 | Aston Villa | +6 | 16 | 14-18 | 99.85% | 92% | 51% | 85% | 44% | 17% | 6% | 1.9% |
| 9 | 9 | Club Brugge | +1 | 15 | 13-16 | 99.0% | 83% | 31% | 68% | 22% | 5% | 1.1% | 0.27% |
| 10 | 9 | Borussia Dortmund | +5 | 14 | 13-16 | 99.23% | 82% | 24% | 73% | 29% | 10% | 3.0% | 0.95% |
| 11 | 6 | Inter Milan | +5 | 14 | 12-15 | 98.3% | 80% | 25% | 80% | 41% | 18% | 7% | 3.0% |
| 12 | 9 | Real Betis | +2 | 14 | 13-16 | 99.12% | 79% | 20% | 61% | 17% | 3.9% | 0.76% | 0.18% |
| 13 | 9 | Como | +12 | 13 | 12-15 | 99.60% | 82% | 26% | 63% | 17% | 3.8% | 0.72% | 0.17% |
| 14 | 9 | Sporting CP | +3 | 13 | 12-15 | 98.0% | 71% | 17% | 65% | 22% | 7% | 1.8% | 0.54% |
| 15 | 7 | VfB Stuttgart | +5 | 12 | 11-14 | 92% | 56% | 11% | 48% | 11% | 2.4% | 0.44% | < 0.1% |
| 16 | 4 | Atletico Madrid | +4 | 12 | 10-14 | 90% | 54% | 7% | 63% | 25% | 10% | 3.5% | 1.3% |
| 17 | 6 | Galatasaray | 0 | 11 | 10-13 | 83% | 36% | 3.2% | 36% | 7% | 1.6% | 0.27% | < 0.1% |
| 18 | 6 | Man United | 0 | 11 | 9-13 | 81% | 36% | 4.0% | 44% | 12% | 3.4% | 0.81% | 0.23% |
| 19 | 5 | Fenerbahce | -8 | 11 | 9-12 | 67% | 22% | 1.4% | 24% | 4.0% | 0.71% | < 0.1% | < 0.1% |
| 20 | 4 | Roma | +3 | 10 | 8-11 | 72% | 25% | 1.7% | 38% | 10% | 3.0% | 0.72% | 0.20% |
| 21 | 3 | Villarreal | -7 | 10 | 8-12 | 59% | 17% | 0.24% | 23% | 4.5% | 0.95% | 0.16% | < 0.1% |
| 22 | 3 | Porto | +1 | 9 | 7-11 | 60% | 15% | 0.34% | 26% | 6% | 1.5% | 0.29% | < 0.1% |
| 23 | 3 | RB Leipzig | -1 | 9 | 7-11 | 57% | 15% | 0.19% | 25% | 6% | 1.3% | 0.28% | < 0.1% |
| 24 | 3 | Napoli | -1 | 9 | 8-11 | 59% | 13% | 0.20% | 25% | 5% | 1.3% | 0.27% | < 0.1% |
| 25 | 4 | Bodoe Glimt | -5 | 9 | 7-11 | 49% | 12% | 0.50% | 16% | 2.6% | 0.43% | < 0.1% | < 0.1% |
| 26 | 6 | LASK | -7 | 9 | 7-10 | 44% | 8% | 0.19% | 5% | 0.28% | < 0.1% | < 0.1% |
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| 27 | 4 | PSV Eindhoven | -2 | 8 | 7-10 | 44% | 10% | 0.36% | 15% | 2.6% | 0.46% | < 0.1% | < 0.1% |
| 28 | 4 | Shakhtar Donetsk | -2 | 8 | 7-10 | 40% | 7% | 0.18% | 8% | 0.65% | < 0.1% | < 0.1% | < 0.1% |
| 29 | 4 | Viking | -5 | 8 | 7-10 | 37% | 6% | 0.17% | 8% | 0.80% | < 0.1% | < 0.1% | < 0.1% |
| 30 | 3 | Feyenoord | -8 | 7 | 6-9 | 28% | 4.3% | < 0.1% | 7% | 0.84% | 0.11% | < 0.1% | < 0.1% |
| 31 | 3 | Lens | -14 | 7 | 6-9 | 20% | 2.2% | < 0.1% | 7% | 1.6% | 0.33% | < 0.1% | < 0.1% |
| 32 | 3 | AEK Athens | -9 | 6 | 4-8 | 13% | 1.3% | < 0.1% | 2.5% | 0.23% | < 0.1% | < 0.1% | < 0.1% |
| 33 | 1 | Lille | -6 | 5 | 4-7 | 9% | 0.48% |
| 2.4% | 0.38% | < 0.1% | < 0.1% | < 0.1% |
| 34 | 1 | Slavia Prague | -7 | 4 | 2-6 | 3.4% | 0.11% |
| 0.81% | 0.11% | < 0.1% | < 0.1% | < 0.1% |
| 35 | 3 | Sabah | -16 | 4 | 3-6 | 1.3% | < 0.1% |
| < 0.1% | < 0.1% |
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| 36 | 0 | Slovan Bratislava | -20 | 2 | 1-4 | 0.24% | < 0.1% |
| < 0.1% | < 0.1% |
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Expected Requirement
| Top 24 | Top 16 | Top 8 |
| Pts | GD | Pts | GD | Pts | GD |
| 1% | 10 | 18-18 | 13 | 21-13 | 18 | 22-14 |
| 5% | 10 | 10-12 | 13 | 16-13 | 17 | 23-11 |
| 25% | 10 | 11-21 | 13 | 17-19 | 16 | 24-15 |
| 50% | 9 | 12-15 | 12 | 18-16 | 16 | 16-10 |
| 75% | 9 | 10-17 | 12 | 16-18 | 15 | 20-7 |
| 95% | 8 | 15-19 | 11 | 16-15 | 15 | 18-15 |
| 99% | 8 | 7-14 | 11 | 11-14 | 14 | 17-10 |
Europa League
Clinching Scenarios
- Bayer Leverkusen clinch Knockout if they win against Marseille (64%)
- Juventus clinch Knockout if they win against AZ and Lillestrom draw (or win) against Viktoria Plzen (29%)
- Union Saint-Gilloise clinch Knockout if they win against Celta Vigo and Real Sociedad and Lyon do not draw (28%)
- Olympiakos clinch Knockout if they win against Rennes (25%)
- Ferencvaros clinch Knockout if they win against Milan (12%)
| Pos | Pts | Team | GD | Median Pts | 50% CI | Top 24 | Top 16 | Top 8 | R16 | QF | Semi | Final | Champ |
| 1 | 9 | Benfica | +17 | 21 | 19-22 | >99.99% | 99.95% | 98.1% | 99.69% | 75% | 51% | 31% | 17% |
| 2 | 9 | Bournemouth | +10 | 21 | 19-22 | >99.99% | 99.90% | 97.0% | 99.57% | 77% | 54% | 34% | 19% |
| 3 | 9 | Bayer Leverkusen | +15 | 19 | 18-21 | >99.99% | 99.62% | 93% | 99.0% | 76% | 53% | 33% | 19% |
| 4 | 7 | Juventus | +9 | 17 | 15-19 | 99.85% | 96.1% | 71% | 94% | 63% | 36% | 19% | 9% |
| 5 | 9 | Olympiakos | +6 | 17 | 15-19 | 99.95% | 97.2% | 72% | 90% | 46% | 17% | 6% | 2.0% |
| 6 | 7 | Union Saint-Gilloise | +7 | 16 | 14-17 | 99.52% | 92% | 56% | 89% | 56% | 29% | 14% | 7% |
| 7 | 7 | Sunderland | +7 | 15 | 14-17 | 99.30% | 90% | 48% | 79% | 35% | 12% | 3.7% | 1.3% |
| 8 | 5 | Rennes | +2 | 15 | 12-17 | 97.5% | 82% | 37% | 77% | 38% | 16% | 6% | 2.3% |
| 9 | 9 | Ferencvaros | +1 | 15 | 13-16 | 99.53% | 87% | 37% | 66% | 20% | 4.6% | 0.95% | 0.24% |
| 10 | 6 | Lyon | -2 | 15 | 13-16 | 98.2% | 82% | 34% | 80% | 43% | 20% | 9% | 3.8% |
| 11 | 4 | Crystal Palace | +6 | 14 | 12-16 | 96.8% | 79% | 33% | 80% | 46% | 23% | 11% | 5% |
| 12 | 3 | Milan | +11 | 13 | 12-15 | 97.5% | 78% | 27% | 81% | 48% | 26% | 14% | 7% |
| 13 | 4 | Real Sociedad | +7 | 13 | 11-14 | 96.0% | 69% | 20% | 74% | 37% | 18% | 8% | 3.4% |
| 14 | 7 | Besiktas | +4 | 13 | 11-15 | 96.3% | 70% | 22% | 61% | 21% | 6% | 1.6% | 0.50% |
| 15 | 6 | AZ | 0 | 13 | 10-15 | 93% | 62% | 16% | 55% | 17% | 4.8% | 1.2% | 0.34% |
| 16 | 6 | Omonia | 0 | 11 | 9-13 | 83% | 40% | 7% | 34% | 7% | 1.5% | 0.26% | < 0.1% |
| 17 | 3 | Celta Vigo | -2 | 11 | 9-13 | 79% | 36% | 5% | 49% | 20% | 8% | 2.9% | 1.0% |
| 18 | 4 | Sturm Graz | -2 | 11 | 9-13 | 81% | 37% | 4.9% | 32% | 7% | 1.3% | 0.25% | < 0.1% |
| 19 | 4 | Red Bull Salzburg | -6 | 11 | 9-13 | 76% | 30% | 3.3% | 31% | 7% | 1.6% | 0.32% | < 0.1% |
| 20 | 3 | TSG Hoffenheim | +2 | 10 | 9-12 | 77% | 35% | 5% | 46% | 17% | 6% | 2.2% | 0.79% |
| 21 | 3 | Anderlecht | 0 | 10 | 8-12 | 70% | 27% | 3.1% | 29% | 7% | 1.5% | 0.28% | < 0.1% |
| 22 | 4 | NEC | -2 | 10 | 8-12 | 70% | 28% | 3.6% | 22% | 3.5% | 0.51% | < 0.1% | < 0.1% |
| 23 | 4 | Levski Sofia | -1 | 9 | 8-11 | 62% | 17% | 1.2% | 17% | 2.3% | 0.32% | < 0.1% | < 0.1% |
| 24 | 4 | Sparta Prague | -2 | 9 | 7-11 | 56% | 17% | 1.6% | 21% | 4.5% | 0.95% | 0.18% | < 0.1% |
| 25 | 4 | Dinamo Zagreb | -4 | 9 | 7-11 | 55% | 16% | 1.6% | 22% | 5% | 1.3% | 0.26% | < 0.1% |
| 26 | 0 | Marseille | -2 | 8 | 6-10 | 47% | 11% | 0.35% | 27% | 11% | 4.5% | 1.7% | 0.65% |
| 27 | 1 | Lech Poznan | -7 | 8 | 7-10 | 41% | 7% | 0.27% | 16% | 4.4% | 1.1% | 0.26% | < 0.1% |
| 28 | 3 | Jagiellonia Bialystok | -6 | 7 | 5-9 | 28% | 4.9% | 0.27% | 7% | 0.94% | 0.11% | < 0.1% | < 0.1% |
| 29 | 0 | Celtic | -7 | 7 | 5-9 | 27% | 4.2% | 0.11% | 10% | 2.7% | 0.67% | 0.15% | < 0.1% |
| 30 | 3 | Torreense | -7 | 6 | 5-8 | 16% | 1.5% | < 0.1% | 1.2% | < 0.1% | < 0.1% |
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| 31 | 1 | Hapoel Be'er Sheva | -8 | 6 | 4-8 | 15% | 1.6% | < 0.1% | 4.3% | 0.79% | 0.14% | < 0.1% | < 0.1% |
| 32 | 3 | OFI | -8 | 6 | 4-7 | 16% | 1.7% | < 0.1% | 1.7% | 0.11% | < 0.1% | < 0.1% |
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| 33 | 1 | Celje | -7 | 5 | 4-7 | 13% | 1.3% | < 0.1% | 1.7% | 0.12% | < 0.1% | < 0.1% | < 0.1% |
| 34 | 0 | Viktoria Plzen | -6 | 4 | 3-6 | 7% | 0.48% | < 0.1% | 1.9% | 0.34% | < 0.1% | < 0.1% | < 0.1% |
| 35 | 1 | Lillestrom | -13 | 4 | 2-6 | 3.6% | 0.21% | < 0.1% | 0.54% | < 0.1% | < 0.1% | < 0.1% | < 0.1% |
| 36 | 0 | Ararat-Armenia | -17 | 4 | 2-6 | 3.2% | 0.15% | < 0.1% | 0.20% | < 0.1% | < 0.1% |
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Expected Requirement
| Top 24 | Top 16 | Top 8 |
| Pts | GD | Pts | GD | Pts | GD |
| 1% | 10 | 11-11 | 13 | 18-11 | 18 | 11-10 |
| 5% | 10 | 9-12 | 13 | 11-8 | 17 | 15-7 |
| 25% | 9 | 12-13 | 12 | 17-10 | 16 | 17-9 |
| 50% | 9 | 9-14 | 12 | 12-11 | 16 | 14-11 |
| 75% | 8 | 10-12 | 11 | 15-8 | 15 | 19-13 |
| 95% | 8 | 10-18 | 11 | 9-10 | 14 | 15-7 |
| 99% | 7 | 9-13 | 10 | 14-10 | 14 | 12-9 |
| Important for Top-8 |
| Real Sociedad vs Lyon (19.6%) |
| Home Win (47%) | Draw (24%) | Away Win (29%) |
| Lyon | 18% | 33% | 60% |
| Real Sociedad | 35% | 11% | 4.6% |
| Rennes vs Olympiakos (17.2%) |
| Home Win (48%) | Draw (27%) | Away Win (25%) |
| Rennes | 55% | 28% | 15% |
| Olympiakos | 59% | 75% | 92% |
| AZ vs Juventus (16.9%) |
| Home Win (26%) | Draw (25%) | Away Win (49%) |
| Juventus | 49% | 65% | 86% |
| AZ | 37% | 14% | 6% |
| Milan vs Ferencvaros (14.6%) |
| Home Win (69%) | Draw (19%) | Away Win (12%) |
| Milan | 35% | 11% | 3.4% |
| Ferencvaros | 28% | 45% | 73% |
| Crystal Palace vs TSG Hoffenheim (14%) |
| Home Win (57%) | Draw (21%) | Away Win (22%) |
| Crystal Palace | 46% | 19% | 10% |
| TSG Hoffenheim | 1.2% | 4.2% | 17% |
| Celta Vigo vs Union Saint-Gilloise (13.5%) |
| Home Win (36%) | Draw (27%) | Away Win (36%) |
| Union Saint-Gilloise | 38% | 52% | 78% |
| Celta Vigo | 12% | 2.4% | 0.5% |
| Sunderland vs Dinamo Zagreb (12.8%) |
| Home Win (55%) | Draw (24%) | Away Win (20%) |
| Sunderland | 65% | 34% | 21% |
| Dinamo Zagreb | 0.34% | 1.0% | 6% |
| Celtic vs Besiktas (8.8%) |
| Home Win (43%) | Draw (24%) | Away Win (33%) |
| Besiktas | 10% | 18% | 42% |
| NEC vs Omonia (6.2%) |
| Home Win (41%) | Draw (24%) | Away Win (36%) |
| Omonia | 1.7% | 4.0% | 14% |
| NEC | 8% | 1.4% | 0.5% |
| Important for Knockout Stage |
| Levski Sofia vs Jagiellonia Bialystok (24.4%) |
| Home Win (46%) | Draw (27%) | Away Win (27%) |
| Levski Sofia | 83% | 53% | 33% |
| Jagiellonia Bialystok | 14% | 25% | 55% |
| NEC vs Omonia (19.5%) |
| Home Win (41%) | Draw (24%) | Away Win (36%) |
| NEC | 89% | 67% | 51% |
| Omonia | 70% | 83% | 97.9% |
| Anderlecht vs Red Bull Salzburg (19%) |
| Home Win (46%) | Draw (25%) | Away Win (29%) |
| Anderlecht | 87% | 63% | 48% |
| Red Bull Salzburg | 62% | 78% | 95.1% |
| Sturm Graz vs Celje (15.5%) |
| Home Win (65%) | Draw (20%) | Away Win (15%) |
| Sturm Graz | 91% | 69% | 52% |
| Celje | 7% | 14% | 36% |
| Celtic vs Besiktas (11.6%) |
| Home Win (43%) | Draw (24%) | Away Win (33%) |
| Celtic | 44% | 19% | 11% |
| Besiktas | 93% | 97.6% | 99.97% |
| Hapoel Be'er Sheva vs OFI (10.6%) |
| Home Win (65%) | Draw (20%) | Away Win (15%) |
| OFI | 9% | 17% | 43% |
| Hapoel Be'er Sheva | 21% | 6% | 2.5% |
| Torreense vs Ararat-Armenia (10%) |
| Home Win (48%) | Draw (26%) | Away Win (26%) |
| Torreense | 28% | 8% | 3.8% |
| Ararat-Armenia | 0.7% | 1.5% | 9% |
| Sunderland vs Dinamo Zagreb (9.7%) |
| Home Win (55%) | Draw (24%) | Away Win (20%) |
| Dinamo Zagreb | 43% | 59% | 84% |
| Sunderland | 99.99% | 99.3% | 97.4% |
| Celta Vigo vs Union Saint-Gilloise (8%) |
| Home Win (36%) | Draw (27%) | Away Win (36%) |
| Celta Vigo | 94% | 78% | 66% |
| Union Saint-Gilloise | 98.9% | 99.7% | >99.99% |
| Crystal Palace vs TSG Hoffenheim (7.8%) |
| Home Win (57%) | Draw (21%) | Away Win (22%) |
| TSG Hoffenheim | 69% | 81% | 95% |
| Crystal Palace | 99.3% | 95.9% | 91% |
| Sparta Prague vs Bournemouth (7.7%) |
| Home Win (18%) | Draw (20%) | Away Win (62%) |
| Sparta Prague | 85% | 63% | 46% |
| Bayer Leverkusen vs Marseille (6.9%) |
| Home Win (64%) | Draw (19%) | Away Win (17%) |
| Marseille | 38% | 52% | 77% |
| Lillestrom vs Viktoria Plzen (6.7%) |
| Home Win (34%) | Draw (25%) | Away Win (41%) |
| Viktoria Plzen | 1.4% | 3.2% | 14% |
| Lillestrom | 8% | 1.9% | 0.7% |
| Benfica vs Lech Poznan (6.7%) |
| Home Win (72%) | Draw (16%) | Away Win (12%) |
| Lech Poznan | 33% | 49% | 77% |
Conference LeagueClinching Scenarios
- Twente clinch Knockout if they win against Pafos (93%)
- Lugano clinch Knockout if they win against Kauno Zalgiris (82%)
- Monaco clinch Knockout if they win against Nordsjaelland (71%)
- Hajduk Split clinch Knockout if they win against Lincoln Red Imps and Atalanta draw (or win) against Kairat (63%)
- Panathinaikos clinch Knockout if they win against CSKA Sofia and Monaco draw (or win) against Nordsjaelland (58%)
- Sint-Truiden clinch Knockout if they win against Brann (54%)
- Trabzonspor clinch Knockout if they win against SC Freiburg (34%)
- Brann clinch Knockout if they win against Sint-Truiden (24%)
| Pos | Pts | Team | GD | Median Pts | 50% CI | Top 24 | Top 16 | Top 8 | R16 | QF | Semi | Final | Champ |
| 1 | 6 | Monaco | +6 | 15 | 13-15 | 99.96% | 98.3% | 84% | 97.5% | 73% | 49% | 29% | 15% |
| 2 | 6 | Twente | +9 | 13 | 12-15 | 99.93% | 97.4% | 75% | 91% | 46% | 18% | 6% | 1.7% |
| 3 | 4 | Brighton | +9 | 13 | 11-14 | 99.63% | 93% | 66% | 97.1% | 85% | 71% | 57% | 41% |
| 4 | 3 | Atalanta | +7 | 13 | 12-15 | 99.66% | 95.1% | 71% | 95% | 70% | 46% | 27% | 14% |
| 5 | 4 | Copenhagen | +7 | 13 | 11-14 | 99.58% | 93% | 61% | 87% | 47% | 21% | 8% | 2.6% |
| 6 | 6 | Lugano | +6 | 13 | 12-15 | 99.76% | 94% | 67% | 88% | 44% | 17% | 6% | 1.7% |
| 7 | 6 | Trabzonspor | +4 | 13 | 11-15 | 99.29% | 90% | 57% | 86% | 45% | 20% | 7% | 2.4% |
| 8 | 6 | Hajduk Split | +2 | 12 | 10-13 | 98.5% | 81% | 42% | 70% | 24% | 6% | 1.3% | 0.28% |
| 9 | 3 | Braga | +1 | 12 | 10-13 | 97.4% | 79% | 37% | 79% | 43% | 21% | 8% | 3.0% |
| 10 | 3 | SC Freiburg | 0 | 12 | 10-13 | 97.2% | 78% | 36% | 85% | 58% | 37% | 20% | 10% |
| 11 | 6 | Sint-Truiden | +5 | 11 | 10-13 | 97.4% | 75% | 36% | 68% | 26% | 8% | 2.1% | 0.52% |
| 12 | 6 | Panathinaikos | +3 | 11 | 9-12 | 98.0% | 75% | 30% | 71% | 31% | 12% | 3.7% | 1.1% |
| 13 | 1 | Midtjylland | +7 | 10 | 8-11 | 95.6% | 69% | 23% | 72% | 38% | 18% | 7% | 2.6% |
| 14 | 4 | Mjaellby AIF | +3 | 10 | 8-11 | 95.6% | 63% | 17% | 40% | 7% | 1.0% | 0.11% | < 0.1% |
| 15 | 6 | Brann | +3 | 10 | 9-12 | 95% | 63% | 24% | 53% | 15% | 3.6% | 0.66% | 0.13% |
| 16 | 3 | Gent | +1 | 10 | 8-12 | 90% | 57% | 19% | 59% | 24% | 8% | 2.5% | 0.69% |
| 17 | 3 | Ajax | 0 | 10 | 8-11 | 89% | 54% | 17% | 64% | 32% | 15% | 6% | 1.9% |
| 18 | 4 | Universitatea Craiova | -1 | 10 | 8-11 | 91% | 53% | 13% | 47% | 14% | 3.4% | 0.69% | 0.15% |
| 19 | 1 | Red Star Belgrade | +5 | 8 | 7-10 | 86% | 44% | 8% | 53% | 22% | 8% | 2.7% | 0.78% |
| 20 | 1 | Getafe | -2 | 8 | 7-9 | 75% | 23% | 2.3% | 44% | 19% | 8% | 2.7% | 0.83% |
| 21 | 2 | Nordsjaelland | -3 | 8 | 6-9 | 67% | 22% | 3.0% | 34% | 11% | 3.6% | 0.92% | 0.23% |
| 22 | 1 | AGF | 0 | 7 | 5-8 | 61% | 20% | 2.6% | 27% | 8% | 2.2% | 0.47% | 0.10% |
| 23 | 1 | Hearts | -1 | 7 | 5-8 | 63% | 18% | 1.8% | 21% | 4.5% | 0.89% | 0.14% | < 0.1% |
| 24 | 3 | Borac Banja Luka | -2 | 7 | 5-9 | 58% | 17% | 2.1% | 15% | 2.1% | 0.27% | < 0.1% | < 0.1% |
| 25 | 2 | Egnatia | +1 | 6 | 5-8 | 54% | 10% | 0.69% | 8% | 0.72% | < 0.1% | < 0.1% | < 0.1% |
| 26 | 1 | Jablonec | +1 | 6 | 5-8 | 50% | 12% | 1.0% | 16% | 3.5% | 0.69% | 0.10% | < 0.1% |
| 27 | 2 | Riga | 0 | 6 | 5-8 | 53% | 14% | 1.4% | 13% | 2.0% | 0.27% | < 0.1% | < 0.1% |
| 28 | 1 | CSKA Sofia | -3 | 5 | 4-7 | 32% | 5% | 0.33% | 8% | 1.3% | 0.20% | < 0.1% | < 0.1% |
| 29 | 0 | Thun | -2 | 4 | 3-6 | 27% | 4.4% | 0.25% | 8% | 1.8% | 0.36% | < 0.1% | < 0.1% |
| 30 | 1 | Kairat | -10 | 4 | 2-5 | 11% | 0.95% | < 0.1% | 1.5% | 0.15% | < 0.1% | < 0.1% |
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| 31 | 0 | KuPS | -7 | 3 | 1-4 | 8% | 0.54% | < 0.1% | 1.3% | 0.15% | < 0.1% | < 0.1% | < 0.1% |
| 32 | 0 | Kauno Zalgiris | -16 | 3 | 1-4 | 3.6% | 0.17% | < 0.1% | 0.31% | < 0.1% | < 0.1% | < 0.1% |
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| 33 | 1 | Iberia 1999 | -7 | 2 | 1-4 | 4.6% | 0.28% | < 0.1% | 0.39% | < 0.1% | < 0.1% | < 0.1% |
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| 34 | 1 | Pafos | -10 | 1 | 1-2 | 0.91% | < 0.1% | < 0.1% | < 0.1% | < 0.1% |
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| 35 | 0 | Lincoln Red Imps | -10 | 1 | 0-3 | 1.5% | < 0.1% | < 0.1% | < 0.1% | < 0.1% | < 0.1% |
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| 36 | 0 | Inter Club d'Escaldes | -13 | 1 | 0-3 | 0.87% | < 0.1% | < 0.1% | < 0.1% | < 0.1% |
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Expected Requirement
| Top 24 | Top 16 | Top 8 |
| Pts | GD | Pts | GD | Pts | GD |
| 1% | 8 | 8-8 | 11 | 14-13 | 13 | 15-4 |
| 5% | 8 | 10-14 | 10 | 13-9 | 13 | 15-8 |
| 25% | 7 | 6-7 | 10 | 7-5 | 13 | 13-9 |
| 50% | 7 | 5-9 | 10 | 6-7 | 12 | 13-5 |
| 75% | 6 | 5-6 | 9 | 9-7 | 12 | 11-7 |
| 95% | 6 | 6-16 | 8 | 18-11 | 11 | 12-6 |
| 99% | 5 | 6-9 | 8 | 8-7 | 11 | 13-10 |
| Important for Top-8 |
| Midtjylland vs Ajax (34.6%) |
| Home Win (48%) | Draw (23%) | Away Win (29%) |
| Midtjylland | 45% | 4.2% | < 0.1% |
| Ajax | 4.8% | 14% | 40% |
| Trabzonspor vs SC Freiburg (30.9%) |
| Home Win (34%) | Draw (24%) | Away Win (42%) |
| SC Freiburg | 10% | 29% | 61% |
| Trabzonspor | 84% | 57% | 37% |
| Sint-Truiden vs Brann (20.3%) |
| Home Win (54%) | Draw (22%) | Away Win (24%) |
| Brann | 12% | 23% | 52% |
| Sint-Truiden | 51% | 24% | 12% |
| AGF vs Braga (19.8%) |
| Home Win (30%) | Draw (26%) | Away Win (44%) |
| Braga | 11% | 28% | 60% |
| AGF | 8% | 0.4% | < 0.1% |
| Getafe vs Brighton (18%) |
| Home Win (17%) | Draw (25%) | Away Win (59%) |
| Brighton | 34% | 51% | 82% |
| Getafe | 13% | 0.5% | < 0.1% |
| Monaco vs Nordsjaelland (16.6%) |
| Home Win (71%) | Draw (16%) | Away Win (13%) |
| Monaco | 93% | 71% | 49% |
| Nordsjaelland | 0.26% | 4.4% | 17% |
| Mjaellby AIF vs Borac Banja Luka (14.4%) |
| Home Win (47%) | Draw (28%) | Away Win (25%) |
| Mjaellby AIF | 32% | 5% | 1.9% |
| Borac Banja Luka | 0.27% | 1.0% | 7% |
| Lincoln Red Imps vs Hajduk Split (9%) |
| Home Win (14%) | Draw (21%) | Away Win (66%) |
| Hajduk Split | 14% | 25% | 54% |
| Panathinaikos vs CSKA Sofia (8.2%) |
| Home Win (66%) | Draw (22%) | Away Win (12%) |
| Panathinaikos | 40% | 14% | 8% |
| CSKA Sofia | < 0.1% | < 0.1% | 2.6% |
| KuPS vs Gent (7.7%) |
| Home Win (20%) | Draw (26%) | Away Win (54%) |
| Gent | 3.0% | 9% | 29% |
| Atalanta vs Kairat (7%) |
| Home Win (87%) | Draw (9%) | Away Win (4%) |
| Atalanta | 76% | 41% | 23% |
| Copenhagen vs Iberia 1999 (6.7%) |
| Home Win (84%) | Draw (10%) | Away Win (5%) |
| Copenhagen | 68% | 33% | 20% |
| Lugano vs Kauno Zalgiris (6.5%) |
| Home Win (82%) | Draw (12%) | Away Win (6%) |
| Lugano | 73% | 42% | 28% |
| Universitatea Craiova vs Egnatia (6.2%) |
| Home Win (68%) | Draw (20%) | Away Win (12%) |
| Universitatea Craiova | 18% | 2.6% | 0.9% |
| Egnatia | < 0.1% | 0.7% | 4.2% |
| Important for Knockout Stage |
| Riga vs Jablonec (32.3%) |
| Home Win (38%) | Draw (28%) | Away Win (35%) |
| Jablonec | 27% | 44% | 81% |
| Riga | 80% | 49% | 28% |
| Thun vs Hearts (22.8%) |
| Home Win (47%) | Draw (23%) | Away Win (30%) |
| Hearts | 45% | 63% | 90% |
| Thun | 43% | 18% | 8% |
| Universitatea Craiova vs Egnatia (19.6%) |
| Home Win (68%) | Draw (20%) | Away Win (12%) |
| Universitatea Craiova | 98.5% | 80% | 66% |
| Egnatia | 44% | 67% | 91% |
| Mjaellby AIF vs Borac Banja Luka (16%) |
| Home Win (47%) | Draw (28%) | Away Win (25%) |
| Borac Banja Luka | 41% | 61% | 87% |
| Mjaellby AIF | 99.79% | 95.4% | 88% |
| AGF vs Braga (14%) |
| Home Win (30%) | Draw (26%) | Away Win (44%) |
| AGF | 87% | 60% | 44% |
| Braga | 94% | 98.0% | 99.79% |
| Panathinaikos vs CSKA Sofia (12%) |
| Home Win (66%) | Draw (22%) | Away Win (12%) |
| CSKA Sofia | 23% | 37% | 70% |
| Panathinaikos | >99.99% | 98.1% | 87% |
| KuPS vs Gent (11.7%) |
| Home Win (20%) | Draw (26%) | Away Win (54%) |
| Gent | 74% | 87% | 97.1% |
| KuPS | 23% | 6% | 2.4% |
| Midtjylland vs Ajax (8%) |
| Home Win (48%) | Draw (23%) | Away Win (29%) |
| Ajax | 83% | 92% | 98.6% |
| Midtjylland | 99.5% | 95.1% | 89% |
| Sint-Truiden vs Brann (7.4%) |
| Home Win (54%) | Draw (22%) | Away Win (24%) |
| Sint-Truiden | 100% | 98.1% | 91% |
| Brann | 91% | 98.4% | 100% |
| Getafe vs Brighton (7.1%) |
| Home Win (17%) | Draw (25%) | Away Win (59%) |
| Getafe | 96.5% | 81% | 66% |
| Brighton | 98.5% | 99.6% | >99.99% |
| Red Star Belgrade vs Inter Club d'Escaldes (7%) |
| Home Win (86%) | Draw (10%) | Away Win (4%) |
| Red Star Belgrade | 91% | 65% | 49% |
| Inter Club d'Escaldes | 0.39% | 1.5% | 9% |
| Monaco vs Nordsjaelland (6.7%) |
| Home Win (71%) | Draw (16%) | Away Win (13%) |
| Nordsjaelland | 60% | 79% | 94% |
Which countries get extra CL spots
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| Score |
| Country | Probability | Average | Min | Max |
| England | 96.6% | 25.68 | 16.47 | 33.64 |
| Germany | 42% | 21.72 | 12.96 | 31.04 |
| Spain | 27% | 21.05 | 13.5 | 30.17 |
| Italy | 21% | 20.63 | 11.82 | 30.21 |
| Portugal | 7% | 19.09 | 10.8 | 30.5 |
| Belgium | 4.2% | 18.34 | 9.32 | 29.48 |
| France | 2.1% | 18.12 | 10.46 | 26.79 |
| Denmark | 0.22% | 15.6 | 7.75 | 27.41 |
| Turkey | 0.12% | 15.52 | 8.3 | 26.55 |
| Netherlands | < 0.1% | 15 | 8 | 23.98 |
Number of quarterfinalists from Germany; 198 mbit
| n | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
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| Probability | 0.88% | 9% | 30% | 38% | 18% | 3.4% |
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| Chance if | 0.3% | 4.7% | 20% | 47% | 76% | 94% |
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Number of quarterfinalists from Spain; 175 mbit
| n | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
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| Probability | 0.93% | 10% | 32% | 35% | 17% | 4.4% | 0.53% |
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| Chance if | 0.1% | 1.8% | 10% | 28% | 55% | 80% | 95% |
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Number of semifinalists from Germany; 174 mbit
| n | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
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| Probability | 11% | 35% | 37% | 15% | 1.8% |
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| Chance if | 8% | 24% | 51% | 79% | 96% |
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Number of quarterfinalists from Italy; 170 mbit
| n | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
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| Probability | 2.0% | 14% | 32% | 33% | 15% | 2.9% |
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| Chance if | < 0.1% | 1.1% | 7% | 24% | 52% | 81% |
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Number of teams in last-16 stage from Germany; 152 mbit
| n | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
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| Probability | 0.91% | 9% | 30% | 39% | 19% | 2.7% |
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| Chance if | 1% | 7% | 23% | 48% | 72% | 89% |
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Number of semifinalists from Spain; 145 mbit
| n | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
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| Probability | 15% | 42% | 32% | 9% | 1.2% |
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| Chance if | 4.0% | 15% | 38% | 69% | 91% |
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Number of teams in last-16 stage from Spain; 141 mbit
| n | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 |
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| Probability | 0.75% | 7% | 22% | 34% | 26% | 9% | 1.1% |
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| Chance if | 0.2% | 1.6% | 7% | 21% | 42% | 64% | 82% |
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Number of semifinalists from Italy; 140 mbit
| n | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
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| Probability | 18% | 40% | 31% | 9% | 1.2% |
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| Chance if | 2.8% | 11% | 30% | 61% | 89% |
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Number of teams in last-16 stage from Italy; 122 mbit
| n | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
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| Probability | 1.1% | 8% | 28% | 40% | 19% | 2.4% |
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| Chance if | < 0.1% | 1.0% | 6% | 21% | 45% | 71% |
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Number of finalists from Germany; 103 mbit
| n | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
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| Probability | 33% | 44% | 19% | 2.9% |
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| Chance if | 22% | 43% | 68% | 89% |
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