Premier League: Predictions after 25% of the season played

 

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
27	Arsenal	88.6	+46		>99.99%	>99.99%	>99.99%	99.95%	81%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	>99.99%
21	Man City	80.0	+42		99.95%	99.85%	99.51%	98.3%	17%	< 0.1%	0.40%	99.55%
18	Liverpool	70.4	+26		97.5%	95%	88%	76%	1.1%	1.7%	8%	89%
22	Brighton	68.5	+31		95.5%	91%	83%	67%	0.76%	1.4%	14%	83%
13	Aston Villa	61.4	+12	< 0.1%	74%	60%	42%	21%	< 0.1%	9%	31%	43%
16	Chelsea	60.2	+12	< 0.1%	67%	52%	35%	17%	< 0.1%	11%	32%	35%
15	Bournemouth	58.4	+10	< 0.1%	57%	41%	25%	11%	< 0.1%	12%	24%	40%
14	Brentford	54.4	+7	0.19%	34%	21%	10%	3.8%	< 0.1%	13%	23%	11%
12	Newcastle	53.4	+1	0.31%	27%	16%	8%	2.8%	< 0.1%	12%	20%	8%
16	Everton	50.3	-4	0.77%	13%	7%	3.0%	0.94%	< 0.1%	12%	11%	3.1%
14	Leeds	50.2	-2	0.93%	14%	7%	3.1%	0.94%	< 0.1%	8%	11%	3.2%
8	Man United	48.0	-3	2.2%	8%	4.2%	1.6%	0.47%		6%	9%	1.9%
12	Tottenham	47.7	-6	2.4%	7%	3.4%	1.3%	0.37%	< 0.1%	5%	7%	1.4%
9	Forest	43.3	-11	8%	2.0%	0.82%	0.26%	< 0.1%		2.0%	2.7%	0.28%
10	Fulham	43.3	-10	8%	1.9%	0.78%	0.25%	< 0.1%		1.9%	2.9%	0.26%
7	Crystal Palace	42.7	-19	11%	1.5%	0.60%	0.18%	< 0.1%		6%	2.5%	5.0%
8	Sunderland	35.0	-26	50%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%		0.60%	0.41%	0.98%
11	Ipswich	34.2	-32	57%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%		< 0.1%	0.23%	< 0.1%
9	Coventry	31.9	-36	72%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%		< 0.1%	0.20%	< 0.1%
11	Hull	28.6	-36	88%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%				< 0.1%	< 0.1%

Titles

Team	League	FA Cup	League Cup	Europe
Arsenal	81%	28%		22%
Man City	17%	21%	60%	13%
Liverpool	1.1%	10%	25%	3.7%
Brighton	0.76%	5%		42%
Aston Villa	< 0.1%	7%		1.9%
Chelsea	< 0.1%	4.5%
Bournemouth	< 0.1%	3.9%	5%	20%
Brentford	< 0.1%	3.0%
Newcastle	< 0.1%	3.5%
Everton	< 0.1%	1.6%	4.3%
Leeds	< 0.1%	1.6%
Man United		2.8%		0.22%
Tottenham	< 0.1%	1.6%
Forest		1.2%
Fulham		1.4%
Crystal Palace		1.5%	4.6%	4.7%
Sunderland		0.38%	0.52%	0.99%
Ipswich		0.21%
Coventry		0.19%
Hull		< 0.1%

Simulated points for winner: 86 - 93
Simulated points for 17th team: 34 - 38
Most likely combo of teams in CL

17%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Brighton, Liverpool, Man City
14%	Arsenal, Brighton, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City
10%	Arsenal, Bournemouth, Brighton, Liverpool, Man City
6%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Bournemouth, Brighton, Liverpool, Man City
4.5%	Arsenal, Bournemouth, Brighton, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City
3.8%	Arsenal, Brentford, Brighton, Liverpool, Man City
2.7%	Arsenal, Brighton, Liverpool, Man City, Newcastle
2.7%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City
2.2%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Bournemouth, Liverpool, Man City
1.9%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Brighton, Chelsea, Man City

Most likely combo of teams being relegated

27%	Coventry, Hull, Ipswich
22%	Coventry, Hull, Sunderland
13%	Hull, Ipswich, Sunderland
6%	Coventry, Ipswich, Sunderland
3.8%	Coventry, Crystal Palace, Hull
3.0%	Coventry, Forest, Hull
2.9%	Coventry, Fulham, Hull
2.4%	Crystal Palace, Hull, Ipswich
1.8%	Forest, Hull, Ipswich
1.7%	Fulham, Hull, Ipswich

 

England (97%) and Germany (46%) favorites to win extra CL slot.

 Which countries get extra CL spots

		Score
Country	Probability	Average	Min	Max
England	96.7%	25.49	17.07	32.56
Germany	46%	21.76	13.2	31.71
Spain	21%	20.55	13.03	29.45
Italy	17%	20.13	11.39	29.11
Portugal	9%	19.34	11.65	30.6
Belgium	6%	18.84	10.07	28.95
France	4.4%	18.76	11.07	27.07
Denmark	< 0.1%	14.95	7.44	26.03
Netherlands	< 0.1%	15.61	9.19	25
Turkey	< 0.1%	14.94	8.32	25.7

Number of quarterfinalists from Germany; 200 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4	5
Probability	0.76%	8%	28%	39%	20%	3.9%
Chance if	0.4%	6%	22%	50%	78%	95%

Number of semifinalists from Germany; 176 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4
Probability	11%	34%	37%	16%	2.0%
Chance if	9%	28%	56%	82%	97%

Number of quarterfinalists from Spain; 160 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4	5
Probability	1.1%	11%	34%	34%	15%	3.3%
Chance if	< 0.1%	1.0%	7%	22%	50%	77%

Number of quarterfinalists from Italy; 157 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4	5
Probability	2.6%	16%	35%	32%	13%	2.2%
Chance if	< 0.1%	0.8%	5%	21%	49%	79%

Number of teams in last-16 stage from Germany; 150 mbit

n	2	3	4	5	6	7
Probability	0.59%	7%	29%	40%	21%	3.0%
Chance if	1%	8%	26%	50%	75%	91%

Number of semifinalists from Spain; 133 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4
Probability	15%	44%	32%	8%	0.95%
Chance if	2.4%	10%	30%	62%	88%

Number of teams in last-16 stage from Spain; 132 mbit

n	2	3	4	5	6	7	8
Probability	1.2%	9%	26%	35%	22%	7%	0.68%
Chance if	< 0.1%	1.0%	6%	17%	38%	61%	81%

Number of semifinalists from Italy; 130 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4
Probability	20%	42%	29%	8%	0.93%
Chance if	1.8%	8%	26%	57%	87%

Number of teams in last-16 stage from Italy; 119 mbit

n	2	3	4	5	6	7
Probability	1.8%	11%	31%	37%	16%	1.9%
Chance if	< 0.1%	0.7%	5%	19%	42%	68%

Number of finalists from Germany; 104 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	33%	44%	20%	3.1%
Chance if	25%	47%	72%	90%

 

Champions League

Pos	Pts	Team	GD	Median Pts	50% CI	Top 24	Top 16	Top 8	R16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
1	12	Real Madrid	+10	21	19-22	100%	99.97%	97.6%	99.60%	74%	42%	21%	9%
2	12	Paris Saint-Germain	+22	19	18-21	100%	99.93%	95.4%	99.17%	72%	40%	19%	8%
3	10	Arsenal	+13	19	17-20	100%	99.88%	93%	99.31%	82%	58%	37%	22%
4	9	Barcelona	+13	18	16-19	>99.99%	99.24%	84%	98.0%	77%	49%	30%	16%
5	8	Bayern Munich	+18	17	16-20	99.97%	98.7%	81%	97.8%	78%	52%	32%	18%
6	9	Man City	+7	17	15-18	99.95%	97.4%	69%	95.8%	72%	44%	25%	13%
7	9	Liverpool	+6	16	14-18	99.86%	94%	56%	89%	52%	23%	9%	3.7%
8	9	Aston Villa	+6	16	14-18	99.84%	92%	51%	85%	44%	16%	6%	1.9%
9	9	Club Brugge	+1	15	13-16	99.0%	83%	31%	68%	22%	5%	1.1%	0.28%
10	6	Inter Milan	+5	14	12-15	98.4%	80%	25%	80%	41%	18%	7%	2.9%
11	9	Borussia Dortmund	+5	14	13-16	99.23%	82%	24%	73%	29%	10%	3.0%	0.97%
12	9	Real Betis	+2	14	13-16	99.11%	80%	20%	61%	17%	3.9%	0.76%	0.18%
13	9	Como	+12	13	12-15	99.59%	82%	26%	63%	17%	3.8%	0.71%	0.17%
14	9	Sporting CP	+3	13	12-15	98.0%	71%	17%	65%	22%	7%	1.8%	0.53%
15	7	VfB Stuttgart	+5	12	11-14	92%	56%	11%	48%	11%	2.4%	0.44%	< 0.1%
16	4	Atletico Madrid	+4	12	10-14	90%	54%	7%	63%	25%	10%	3.5%	1.3%
17	6	Galatasaray	0	11	10-13	83%	36%	3.2%	36%	7%	1.6%	0.29%	< 0.1%
18	6	Man United	0	11	9-13	81%	36%	4.0%	44%	12%	3.4%	0.81%	0.22%
19	5	Fenerbahce	-8	11	9-12	67%	23%	1.4%	25%	4.0%	0.73%	0.11%	< 0.1%
20	4	Roma	+3	10	8-11	72%	25%	1.7%	38%	10%	3.0%	0.75%	0.20%
21	3	Villarreal	-7	10	8-12	59%	16%	0.24%	23%	4.5%	0.98%	0.16%	< 0.1%
22	3	Porto	+1	9	7-11	60%	15%	0.34%	26%	6%	1.5%	0.29%	< 0.1%
23	3	RB Leipzig	-1	9	7-11	57%	15%	0.18%	25%	6%	1.4%	0.28%	< 0.1%
24	3	Napoli	-1	9	8-11	59%	13%	0.20%	25%	6%	1.3%	0.26%	< 0.1%
25	4	Bodoe Glimt	-5	9	7-11	49%	12%	0.49%	16%	2.5%	0.43%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
26	6	LASK	-7	9	7-10	44%	8%	0.19%	5%	0.27%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
27	4	PSV Eindhoven	-2	8	7-10	44%	10%	0.34%	15%	2.6%	0.46%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
28	4	Shakhtar Donetsk	-2	8	7-10	40%	7%	0.18%	8%	0.66%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
29	4	Viking	-4	8	7-10	37%	6%	0.17%	8%	0.80%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
30	3	Feyenoord	-8	7	6-9	28%	4.4%	< 0.1%	7%	0.87%	0.11%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
31	3	Lens	-14	7	6-9	20%	2.2%	< 0.1%	7%	1.6%	0.32%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
32	3	AEK Athens	-9	6	4-8	13%	1.3%	< 0.1%	2.5%	0.23%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
33	1	Lille	-6	5	4-7	9%	0.49%		2.5%	0.39%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
34	1	Slavia Prague	-7	4	2-6	3.4%	0.12%		0.81%	0.11%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
35	3	Sabah	-16	4	3-6	1.3%	< 0.1%		< 0.1%	< 0.1%
36	0	Slovan Bratislava	-20	2	1-4	0.23%	< 0.1%		< 0.1%	< 0.1%

Expected Requirement

	Top 24		Top 16		Top 8
	Pts	GD	Pts	GD	Pts	GD
1%	10	18-18	13	20-12	18	23-15
5%	10	10-12	13	16-13	17	25-13
25%	10	11-21	13	17-19	16	25-16
50%	9	12-15	12	18-16	16	16-10
75%	9	10-17	12	16-18	15	21-8
95%	8	15-19	11	15-14	15	18-15
99%	8	14-22	11	11-14	14	17-10

Europa League

Pos	Pts	Team	GD	Median Pts	50% CI	Top 24	Top 16	Top 8	R16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
1	12	Benfica	+14	22	20-24	100%	>99.99%	99.58%	99.93%	75%	51%	31%	17%
2	12	Bournemouth	+17	21	20-22	100%	>99.99%	99.51%	99.93%	77%	54%	35%	20%
3	10	Juventus	+11	18	16-20	>99.99%	99.46%	88%	97.6%	68%	40%	21%	10%
4	9	Bayer Leverkusen	+9	18	16-19	99.98%	98.9%	84%	97.4%	75%	50%	31%	18%
5	10	Union Saint-Gilloise	+11	17	16-19	>99.99%	98.8%	82%	95.8%	63%	34%	16%	8%
6	12	Ferencvaros	+8	17	15-19	100%	99.48%	80%	90%	33%	7%	1.5%	0.39%
7	10	Olympiakos	+6	17	16-19	>99.99%	98.5%	79%	93%	48%	18%	6%	2.1%
8	7	Lyon	+3	14	13-16	98.6%	85%	36%	81%	44%	21%	9%	3.9%
9	6	Rennes	+3	14	12-16	96.7%	80%	31%	74%	36%	15%	6%	2.2%
10	7	Sunderland	0	14	12-15	97.1%	77%	23%	67%	27%	9%	2.9%	0.99%
11	5	Crystal Palace	+6	13	11-15	95%	74%	22%	76%	42%	21%	10%	4.7%
12	5	Real Sociedad	+7	12	11-14	94%	67%	13%	70%	35%	17%	8%	3.3%
13	7	Besiktas	+3	12	10-14	92%	58%	12%	54%	18%	5%	1.4%	0.43%
14	6	AZ	0	12	10-13	87%	53%	8%	47%	14%	4.1%	1.0%	0.31%
15	7	NEC	-2	12	10-14	87%	50%	9%	33%	6%	0.83%	0.11%	< 0.1%
16	3	Milan	+7	11	10-13	88%	50%	4.8%	67%	37%	21%	11%	5%
17	6	Anderlecht	+3	11	9-13	84%	47%	7%	39%	10%	2.2%	0.42%	< 0.1%
18	4	TSG Hoffenheim	0	11	9-13	78%	39%	4.8%	47%	18%	7%	2.3%	0.82%
19	7	Dinamo Zagreb	-1	11	10-13	83%	41%	7%	39%	10%	2.3%	0.49%	0.13%
20	7	Levski Sofia	-4	11	9-12	79%	30%	2.7%	24%	3.5%	0.50%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
21	3	Marseille	+1	10	9-12	74%	36%	2.5%	47%	19%	8%	3.0%	1.2%
22	6	Omonia	-4	10	8-12	66%	24%	2.1%	25%	5%	1.1%	0.18%	< 0.1%
23	4	Red Bull Salzburg	-7	10	8-11	58%	16%	0.77%	22%	5%	1.2%	0.24%	< 0.1%
24	3	Celta Vigo	+1	9	7-11	62%	21%	1.0%	36%	15%	6%	2.1%	0.81%
25	4	Sturm Graz	-5	9	7-11	48%	13%	0.63%	17%	3.6%	0.72%	0.12%	< 0.1%
26	6	OFI	-11	9	7-10	40%	9%	0.31%	5%	0.32%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
27	4	Sparta Prague	-2	8	7-10	41%	11%	0.56%	15%	3.3%	0.70%	0.13%	< 0.1%
28	3	Celtic	-4	8	7-10	39%	9%	0.30%	16%	4.2%	1.1%	0.25%	< 0.1%
29	4	Celje	-7	8	6-10	32%	6%	0.28%	4.8%	0.37%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
30	1	Lech Poznan	-9	8	6-10	30%	3.5%	< 0.1%	12%	3.4%	0.88%	0.20%	< 0.1%
31	6	Torreense	-7	7	6-9	23%	3.3%	< 0.1%	2.0%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
32	3	Jagiellonia Bialystok	-7	6	4-7	13%	1.8%	< 0.1%	3.1%	0.47%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
33	3	Viktoria Plzen	-8	6	4-7	11%	1.3%	< 0.1%	3.1%	0.58%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
34	1	Hapoel Be'er Sheva	-12	4	2-5	2.1%	< 0.1%		0.60%	0.12%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
35	0	Ararat-Armenia	-17	3	1-4	0.54%	< 0.1%		< 0.1%	< 0.1%
36	1	Lillestrom	-12	2	1-4	0.54%	< 0.1%		< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%

Expected Requirement

	Top 24		Top 16		Top 8
	Pts	GD	Pts	GD	Pts	GD
1%	10	10-10	13	12-9	17	18-7
5%	10	13-16	13	10-10	17	9-4
25%	9	16-10	12	14-11	16	19-14
50%	9	12-15	12	11-12	15	16-6
75%	9	11-18	11	11-8	15	16-12
95%	8	7-11	11	8-10	14	13-8
99%	8	9-17	10	13-11	14	7-7

Conference League

Pos	Pts	Team	GD	Median Pts	50% CI	Top 24	Top 16	Top 8	R16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
1	9	Monaco	+9	15	13-16	100%	99.86%	94%	99.18%	76%	51%	30%	15%
2	7	Brighton	+8	14	13-16	>99.99%	98.7%	83%	98.8%	87%	73%	59%	42%
3	9	Lugano	+8	13	12-15	100%	98.1%	76%	92%	47%	19%	6%	1.8%
4	9	Twente	+7	13	12-15	100%	98.6%	78%	92%	47%	18%	6%	1.7%
5	7	Copenhagen	+7	13	11-14	99.97%	96.2%	68%	90%	50%	22%	8%	2.6%
6	6	SC Freiburg	+3	13	12-15	99.76%	94%	62%	93%	67%	41%	23%	11%
7	6	Ajax	+7	12	10-13	99.43%	87%	48%	83%	45%	20%	8%	2.6%
8	6	Trabzonspor	+3	12	10-13	99.0%	85%	41%	80%	41%	18%	6%	2.1%
9	9	Panathinaikos	+2	12	10-13	100%	89%	41%	78%	35%	13%	4.1%	1.2%
10	4	Atalanta	+5	11	10-13	99.02%	87%	42%	90%	64%	42%	24%	12%
11	7	Mjaellby AIF	+4	11	10-13	99.85%	91%	36%	58%	11%	1.5%	0.17%	< 0.1%
12	4	Braga	+2	11	10-13	98.2%	80%	29%	78%	41%	19%	8%	2.7%
13	7	Brann	+4	10	9-12	99.08%	72%	24%	56%	16%	3.6%	0.66%	0.12%
14	7	Sint-Truiden	+3	10	9-12	98.9%	70%	24%	63%	23%	7%	1.8%	0.43%
15	7	Universitatea Craiova	+3	10	9-11	98.9%	70%	19%	55%	16%	4.1%	0.82%	0.16%
16	6	Hajduk Split	-1	10	8-12	93%	54%	14%	49%	15%	3.9%	0.81%	0.18%
17	4	Red Star Belgrade	+1	9	7-10	91%	49%	9%	56%	23%	9%	2.7%	0.79%
18	4	Gent	+1	9	8-11	88%	47%	9%	53%	20%	7%	2.1%	0.57%
19	1	Midtjylland	+1	8	7-10	88%	41%	< 0.1%	58%	27%	13%	5%	1.8%
20	2	AGF	0	7	5-8	62%	15%	0.69%	26%	7%	2.0%	0.42%	< 0.1%
21	1	Getafe	-1	7	6-8	71%	14%	< 0.1%	39%	17%	7%	2.2%	0.68%
22	2	Nordsjaelland	-1	7	5-8	63%	15%	0.57%	30%	10%	3.0%	0.79%	0.19%
23	1	Hearts	-1	6	5-7	48%	6%	< 0.1%	14%	3.1%	0.58%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
24	3	Riga	-1	6	5-7	52%	10%	0.60%	12%	1.8%	0.24%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
25	2	Jablonec	-2	6	5-8	46%	7%	0.26%	14%	3.0%	0.56%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
26	3	Thun	-2	6	4-7	48%	10%	0.69%	15%	3.3%	0.63%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
27	2	Egnatia	-2	6	5-8	47%	4.3%	< 0.1%	6%	0.56%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
28	3	Borac Banja Luka	-3	6	4-7	43%	6%	0.35%	9%	1.3%	0.17%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
29	1	CSKA Sofia	-4	5	3-6	27%	2.9%	< 0.1%	6%	1.0%	0.14%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
30	2	Kairat	-7	5	3-6	18%	1.4%	< 0.1%	2.8%	0.25%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
31	3	Lincoln Red Imps	-10	4	3-6	9%	0.39%	< 0.1%	0.49%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
32	1	KuPS	-5	3	2-4	7%	0.27%		1.1%	0.14%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
33	1	Iberia 1999	-7	2	1-4	3.9%	0.13%		0.32%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
34	0	Kauno Zalgiris	-11	2	1-4	2.5%	< 0.1%		0.19%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
35	1	Pafos	-10	1	1-2	0.76%	< 0.1%		< 0.1%	< 0.1%
36	0	Inter Club d'Escaldes	-12	1	0-2	0.59%	< 0.1%		< 0.1%	< 0.1%

Expected Requirement

	Top 24		Top 16		Top 8
	Pts	GD	Pts	GD	Pts	GD
1%	8	9-11	10	10-5	13	14-6
5%	7	5-4	10	9-6	13	14-8
25%	7	5-7	10	7-6	13	10-6
50%	6	8-8	9	11-6	12	13-6
75%	6	5-7	9	9-8	12	11-8
95%	5	8-9	8	9-7	11	13-9
99%	5	6-9	8	8-8	11	7-4