PL: Three heavy points for Forest in relegation battle

 Hot Teams
Brighton: 12 points in the last 5 matches, 5.2 more than expected
Wolves: 8 points in the last 5 matches, 4.3 more than expected
Man United: 10 points in the last 5 matches, 2.9 more than expected
Everton: 9 points in the last 5 matches, 2.8 more than expected
Arsenal: 13 points in the last 5 matches, 2.6 more than expected

Cold Teams
Aston Villa: 4 points in the last 5 matches, 5.2 less than expected
Tottenham: 1 point in the last 5 matches, 5.1 less than expected
Leeds: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 3.3 less than expected
Bournemouth: 5 points in the last 5 matches, 3.3 less than expected
Chelsea: 4 points in the last 5 matches, 3.3 less than expected

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
70	Arsenal	84.8	+48	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	100%	97.1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
61	Man City	75.1	+37	< 1%	100%	>99.99%	>99.99%	99.94%	2.9%	< 1%	< 1%	>99.99%
55	Man United	66.2	+15	< 1%	99.71%	98.6%	94%	82%	< 1%	< 1%	6%	94%
54	Aston Villa	65.7	+8	< 1%	99.59%	98.2%	93%	76%	< 1%	< 1%	3.6%	96.1%
49	Liverpool	61.2	+12	< 1%	92%	82%	58%	26%	< 1%	3.8%	30%	63%
48	Chelsea	59.5	+18	< 1%	87%	72%	40%	14%	< 1%	6%	48%	40%
46	Brentford	55.8	+5	< 1%	46%	21%	7%	1.5%	< 1%	20%	38%	7%
46	Everton	54.9	+1	< 1%	31%	14%	4.2%	< 1%	< 1%	19%	27%	4.2%
43	Brighton	53.0	+5	< 1%	17%	7%	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%	16%	16%	1.6%
42	Newcastle	52.2	-0	< 1%	10%	3.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	13%	10%	< 1%
44	Fulham	52.0	-4	< 1%	9%	2.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	10%	8%	< 1%
42	Bournemouth	50.9	-4	< 1%	4.6%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	7%	4.7%	< 1%
43	Sunderland	50.1	-8	< 1%	2.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	4.2%	2.8%	< 1%
39	Crystal Palace	47.9	-7	< 1%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.2%	41%	< 1%
33	Leeds	42.5	-11	7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.2%	< 1%
32	Forest	40.9	-13	11%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	10%
30	Tottenham	39.4	-11	21%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
29	West Ham	37.1	-24	61%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.9%	< 1%
20	Burnley	26.8	-33	99.86%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
17	Wolves	24.4	-34	99.96%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Titles

Team	League	FA Cup	League Cup	Europe
Arsenal	97.1%	46%		38%
Man City	2.9%	21%	100%
Man United	< 1%
Aston Villa	< 1%			46%
Liverpool		10%		12%
Chelsea		19%
Crystal Palace				41%
Leeds		2.2%
Forest				10%
West Ham		1.9%

Simulated points for winner: 83 - 87
Simulated points for 17th team: 37 - 40
Most likely combo of teams in CL

42%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
24%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Chelsea, Man City, Man United
6%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
4.7%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Forest, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
3.8%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Brentford, Man City, Man United
3.6%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City
2.6%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Chelsea, Forest, Man City, Man United
2.4%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Everton, Man City, Man United
2.1%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Man United

Most likely combo of teams being relegated

61%	Burnley, West Ham, Wolves
21%	Burnley, Tottenham, Wolves
11%	Burnley, Forest, Wolves
7%	Burnley, Leeds, Wolves

Europa and Conference League

England (99.99%) and Spain (81%) strengthen their position to get an extra CL slot.

Below are the probabilities from 1,000,000 simulations. Betis vs Aston Villa is the most common EL final, while Crystal Palace vs Strasbourg is the most common final in Conference League.

Europa League

Quarter-finals		Semi-finals		Final		Champions
Braga (100%)
		Betis (62%) Braga (38%)
Betis (100%)
				Betis (36%) Celta (26%) Freiburg (21%) Braga (18%)
Freiburg (100%)
		Celta (54%) Freiburg (46%)
Celta (100%)
						Aston Villa (46%) Betis (13%) Forest (10%)
Porto (100%)
		Forest (53%) Porto (47%)
Forest (100%)
				Aston Villa (62%) Forest (17%) Porto (15%)
Bologna (100%)
		Aston Villa (84%)
Aston Villa (100%)

 

Conference League

Quarter-finals		Semi-finals		Final		Champions
Shakhtar (100%)
		Alkmaar (50%) Shakhtar (50%)
Alkmaar (100%)
				Crystal Palace (62%) Fiorentina (19%) Shakhtar (9%)
Crystal Palace (100%)
		Crystal Palace (72%) Fiorentina (28%)
Fiorentina (100%)
						Crystal Palace (41%) Strasbourg (18%) Fiorentina (9%) Mainz (9%)
Rayo Vallecano (100%)
		Rayo Vallecano (50%) AEK (50%)
AEK (100%)
				Strasbourg (38%) Mainz (21%) Rayo Vallecano (21%) AEK (20%)
Mainz (100%)
		Strasbourg (60%) Mainz (40%)
Strasbourg (100%)

Which countries get extra CL spots

		Score
Country	Probability	Average	Min	Max
ENG	99.99%	19.74	16.83	21.83
ESP	81%	16.83	14.69	19.63
POR	12%	15.23	13.6	19.8
GER	7%	15.04	13.43	17.71
ITA	< 1%	13.63	13.07	15.79

Number of semifinalists from ESP; 231 mbit

n	1	2	3	4	5
Probability	5%	24%	38%	26%	7%
Chance if	10%	58%	89%	98.5%	99.95%

Number of semifinalists from POR; 200 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	27%	46%	24%	3.4%
Chance if	< 1%	2.2%	33%	76%

Number of finalists from POR; 181 mbit

n	0	1	2
Probability	64%	31%	4.6%
Chance if	1.5%	22%	81%

Number of finalists from ESP; 169 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4
Probability	17%	44%	30%	8%	< 1%
Chance if	40%	83%	96.1%	99.5%	99.9%

Number of semifinalists from GER; 133 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	13%	39%	37%	11%
Chance if	< 1%	< 1%	7%	43%

Number of finalists from GER; 131 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	41%	43%	14%	1.5%
Chance if	< 1%	4.1%	30%	88%

Number of tournament winners for POR; 58 mbit

n	0	1
Probability	84%	16%
Chance if	7%	33%

Number of tournament winners for ESP; 41 mbit

n	0	1	2
Probability	57%	36%	7%
Chance if	73%	89%	97.4%

Number of tournament winners for GER; 29 mbit

n	0	1	2
Probability	72%	25%	2.7%
Chance if	4.3%	13%	35%

Number of semifinalists from ENG; 1 mbit

n	1	2	3	4	5
Probability	2.7%	14%	33%	36%	14%
Chance if	99.9%	>99.99%	100%	100%	100%

CL: Quarterfinals

 

Quarter-finals		Semi-finals		Final		Champions
Paris SG (100%)
		Liverpool (54%) Paris SG (46%)
Liverpool (100%)
				Bayern (34%) Liverpool (27%) Paris SG (22%) Real Madrid (18%)
Real Madrid (100%)
		Bayern (61%) Real Madrid (39%)
Bayern (100%)
						Arsenal (39%) Bayern (16%) Liverpool (12%) Barcelona (11%)
Barcelona (100%)
		Barcelona (66%) Atletico (34%)
Atletico (100%)
				Arsenal (61%) Barcelona (23%) Sporting (8%)
Sporting (100%)
		Arsenal (82%) Sporting (18%)
Arsenal (100%)

 

CL: And so they were twelve

 

Quarter-finals		Semi-finals		Final		Champions
Paris SG (100%)
		Paris SG (58%) Liverpool (36%)
Liverpool (67%) Galatasaray (33%)
				Bayern (35%) Paris SG (27%) Real Madrid (19%) Liverpool (18%)
Real Madrid (100%)
		Bayern (61%) Real Madrid (39%)
Bayern (100%)
						Arsenal (40%) Bayern (17%) Paris SG (12%) Liverpool (8%)
Barcelona (69%) Newcastle (31%)
		Barcelona (45%) Atletico (35%) Newcastle (18%)
Atletico (93%)
				Arsenal (63%) Barcelona (16%) Sporting (8%)
Sporting (100%)
		Arsenal (81%) Sporting (19%)
Arsenal (100%)

 

Which countries get extra CL spots

		Score
Country	Probability	Average	Min	Max
ENG	99.72%	18.84	15.17	22.89
ESP	67%	15.97	12.56	19.88
GER	15%	14.67	12.14	19.14
POR	14%	14.52	12.4	19.6
POL	4.2%	14.35	13.75	18.38
ITA	< 1%	13.66	12.71	16.5
GRE	< 1%	12.46	11	15.9
FRA	< 1%	12.41	10.25	16.06

Number of semifinalists from ESP; 296 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4	5
Probability	2.6%	18%	36%	31%	12%	1.5%
Chance if	< 1%	19%	61%	90%	98.9%	99.9%

Number of semifinalists from POR; 215 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	34%	48%	17%	1.7%
Chance if	< 1%	8%	51%	91%

Number of semifinalists from GER; 179 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	18%	45%	30%	7%
Chance if	< 1%	4.2%	27%	68%

Number of finalists from ESP; 172 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	31%	43%	21%	4.5%
Chance if	36%	71%	92%	99.1%

Number of quarterfinalists from ESP; 154 mbit

n	2	3	4	5	6
Probability	< 1%	10%	35%	41%	13%
Chance if	6%	23%	53%	81%	93%

Number of finalists from POR; 142 mbit

n	0	1	2
Probability	71%	26%	3.0%
Chance if	4.4%	30%	85%

Number of finalists from GER; 139 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	45%	42%	11%	1.0%
Chance if	2.9%	16%	52%	94%

Number of quarterfinalists from POR; 103 mbit

n	1	2	3
Probability	10%	58%	32%
Chance if	< 1%	6%	33%

Number of semifinalists from POL; 95 mbit

n	0	1
Probability	91%	9%
Chance if	< 1%	36%

Number of quarterfinalists from GER; 82 mbit

n	1	2	3	4
Probability	6%	42%	45%	7%
Chance if	< 1%	5%	21%	47%

 

PL: Crucial match in relegation battle

In the title race Man City slipped and lost two points against West Ham. They probably need to win their remaining matches and in the simulations they win the league 67% when they win the remaining matches.

In the CL race, Chelsea play an a difficult match away against Everton. In the relegation match we have a 6-point match between Tottenham and Forest. If Tottenham win they have 95% on a new contract compared with 76% if they lose. Forest have 65% if they win compared with 59% if they lose.

Hot Teams
Wolves: 8 points in the last 5 matches, 4.2 more than expected
Brighton: 9 points in the last 5 matches, 2.7 more than expected
Arsenal: 13 points in the last 5 matches, 2.6 more than expected
Man United: 10 points in the last 5 matches, 2.6 more than expected
Newcastle: 9 points in the last 5 matches, 2.5 more than expected

Cold Teams
Aston Villa: 4 points in the last 5 matches, 4.9 less than expected
Tottenham: 1 point in the last 5 matches, 4.8 less than expected
Forest: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 3.3 less than expected
Chelsea: 5 points in the last 5 matches, 3.0 less than expected
Leeds: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 2.5 less than expected

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
70	Arsenal	84.8	+48	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	100%	97.1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
61	Man City	75.1	+37	< 1%	100%	>99.99%	99.99%	99.86%	2.9%	< 1%	< 1%	99.99%
54	Man United	66.4	+15	< 1%	99.45%	97.3%	90%	76%	< 1%	< 1%	9%	90%
51	Aston Villa	64.9	+8	< 1%	98.6%	95%	83%	60%	< 1%	< 1%	9%	90%
49	Liverpool	62.6	+13	< 1%	95%	85%	63%	37%	< 1%	3.1%	29%	66%
48	Chelsea	60.9	+21	< 1%	90%	76%	47%	22%	< 1%	4.9%	44%	48%
44	Brentford	57.3	+6	< 1%	58%	28%	12%	4.1%	< 1%	19%	46%	12%
42	Newcastle	54.4	+2	< 1%	23%	8%	2.0%	< 1%	< 1%	22%	22%	4.2%
43	Everton	53.3	-2	< 1%	15%	5%	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%	16%	14%	1.5%
41	Bournemouth	51.4	-3	< 1%	6%	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	10%	6%	< 1%
40	Brighton	51.3	+3	< 1%	8%	2.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	11%	8%	< 1%
41	Fulham	51.0	-5	< 1%	5%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	8%	6%	< 1%
39	Crystal Palace	47.9	-7	< 1%	1.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.6%	32%	< 1%
40	Sunderland	47.7	-11	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%
32	Leeds	43.0	-11	6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.2%	< 1%
30	Tottenham	41.2	-7	12%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
29	Forest	38.9	-17	31%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.9%
29	West Ham	37.7	-23	52%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.9%	< 1%
20	Burnley	27.6	-32	99.53%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
16	Wolves	24.0	-35	99.96%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Important matches for CL race
Everton vs Chelsea (6.6%)	Home Win (37%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (38%)
Chelsea	35%	44%	62%
Everton	3.3%	< 1%	< 1%
Liverpool	70%	68%	61%
Brighton vs Liverpool (4.9%)	Home Win (36%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (40%)
Liverpool	55%	64%	78%
Chelsea	52%	49%	42%
Brighton	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%

Important matches for avoiding relegation
Tottenham vs Forest (9.2%)	Home Win (51%)	Draw (23%)	Away Win (26%)
Forest	59%	71%	86%
Tottenham	95.3%	86%	76%
Aston Villa vs West Ham (4.3%)	Home Win (69%)	Draw (18%)	Away Win (14%)
West Ham	43%	53%	70%
Forest	72%	66%	56%
Tottenham	90%	87%	83%
Leeds	95%	94%	91%

	West Ham			Forest			Tottenham			Leeds
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
49	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	2.3%	1.4%	100%	6%	2.5%	100%
48	< 1%	< 1%	100%	1.0%	< 1%	100%	4.1%	1.8%	100%	11%	5.0%	100%
47	< 1%	< 1%	100%	1.9%	< 1%	100%	7%	2.7%	100%	17%	5%	100%
46	1.3%	< 1%	100%	3.4%	1.4%	100%	12%	5%	>99.99%	24%	7%	100%
45	2.9%	1.6%	99.9%	7%	3.2%	99.98%	18%	6%	100%	34%	10%	>99.99%
44	5%	2.1%	99.7%	10%	3.8%	99.9%	26%	8%	99.98%	44%	10%	99.98%
43	8%	3.2%	98.6%	16%	5%	99.6%	36%	10%	99.90%	55%	11%	99.9%
42	14%	6%	95.8%	24%	8%	98.3%	46%	10%	99.6%	66%	11%	99.4%
41	21%	7%	90%	33%	8%	95.3%	57%	11%	98.2%	75%	9%	97.9%
40	29%	8%	80%	43%	10%	90%	68%	11%	95.2%	83%	8%	94%
39	41%	12%	66%	55%	12%	80%	76%	9%	89%	90%	7%	87%
38	51%	11%	52%	65%	10%	67%	84%	8%	79%	94%	4.2%	75%
37	62%	11%	37%	74%	10%	54%	90%	6%	66%	96.9%	2.9%	61%
36	74%	12%	24%	83%	9%	40%	94%	3.9%	51%	98.7%	1.8%	44%
35	83%	8%	14%	89%	6%	26%	97.0%	2.8%	35%	99.45%	< 1%	27%
34	89%	7%	7%	94%	4.6%	16%	98.7%	1.7%	22%	99.81%	< 1%	16%
33	95%	5%	3.4%	97.2%	3.2%	9%	99.46%	< 1%	12%	99.97%	< 1%	6%
32	97.5%	2.8%	1.3%	98.7%	1.6%	4%	99.81%	< 1%	5%	100%	< 1%	1%
31	99.0%	1.5%	< 1%	99.52%	< 1%	2%	99.97%	< 1%	2%	100%	< 1%	-
30	99.80%	< 1%	< 1%	99.92%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	1%	100%	< 1%	-
29	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Most likely combo of teams in CL

37%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
22%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Chelsea, Man City, Man United
7%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
6%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
6%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City
4.6%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Brentford, Man City, Man United
1.3%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Brentford, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
1.2%	Arsenal, Brentford, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
1.2%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Brentford, Liverpool, Man City
1.1%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Man United, Newcastle

Most likely combo of teams being relegated

51%	Burnley, West Ham, Wolves
31%	Burnley, Forest, Wolves
12%	Burnley, Tottenham, Wolves
6%	Burnley, Leeds, Wolves