in silico soccer

Thursday, February 26, 2026

Europa and Conference League

Updated probabilities below. Behind England, Poland (36%), Germany (26%), Portugal (18%), and Spain (15%) are favorites to get an extra CL.

Europa League

Pos	Pts	Team	Pts	GD	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
1	21	Lyon	21	18-5	60%	33%	18%	7%
2	21	Aston Villa	21	14-6	84%	68%	54%	39%
3	19	Midtjylland	19	18-8	52%	23%	7%	2.5%
4	17	Betis	17	13-7	59%	31%	12%	4.6%
5	17	Porto	17	13-7	73%	45%	21%	10%
6	17	Braga	17	11-5	59%	28%	9%	3.2%
7	17	Freiburg	17	10-4	59%	19%	8%	3.0%
8	16	Roma	16	13-6	75%	36%	22%	11%
9	16	Genk	16	11-7	24%	4.6%	1.5%	< 1%
10	15	Bologna	15	14-7	42%	14%	6%	2.2%
11	15	Stuttgart	15	15-9	51%	24%	10%	4.3%
12	15	Ferencvaros	15	12-11	17%	4.2%	< 1%	< 1%
13	14	Forest	14	15-7	64%	37%	17%	8%
14	14	Viktoria Plzen	14	8-3	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
15	14	Crvena Zvezda	14	7-6	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
16	13	Dinamo Zagreb	13	15-13	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
17	12	PAOK	12	17-14	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
18	12	Lille	12	12-9	29%	13%	6%	2.1%
19	12	Fenerbahce	12	10-7	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
20	12	Panathinaikos	12	11-9	25%	7%	1.1%	< 1%
21	11	Celtic	11	13-15	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
22	10	Celta	10	12-14	27%	13%	6%	2.2%
23	10	Razgrad	10	12-15	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
24	9	Brann	9	9-11	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Last 16	Quarter-finals	Semi-finals	Final	Champions
Ferencvaros (100%)
	Porto (44%) Braga (39%) Ferencvaros (17%)
Porto (50%) Braga (50%)
		Porto (30%) Betis (21%) Braga (21%) Midtjylland (17%)
Panathinaikos (100%)
	Betis (39%) Midtjylland (36%) Panathinaikos (25%)
Betis (50%) Midtjylland (50%)
			Aston Villa (28%) Porto (14%) Roma (13%) Lyon (10%)
Genk (100%)
	Roma (41%) Freiburg (34%) Genk (24%)
Freiburg (50%) Roma (50%)
		Aston Villa (34%) Roma (20%) Lyon (17%) Celta (13%)
Celta (100%)
	Aston Villa (42%) Lyon (30%) Celta (27%)
Aston Villa (50%) Lyon (50%)
				Aston Villa (39%) Roma (11%) Porto (10%) Forest (8%)
Stuttgart (100%)
	Stuttgart (51%) Porto (28%) Braga (20%)
Braga (50%) Porto (50%)
		Forest (37%) Stuttgart (24%) Porto (15%) Betis (9%)
Forest (100%)
	Forest (64%) Betis (20%)
Midtjylland (50%) Betis (50%)
			Aston Villa (26%) Forest (17%) Stuttgart (10%) Roma (9%)
Bologna (100%)
	Bologna (42%) Roma (33%) Freiburg (24%)
Roma (50%) Freiburg (50%)
		Aston Villa (33%) Lyon (16%) Roma (16%) Bologna (14%)
Lille (100%)
	Aston Villa (42%) Lyon (30%) Lille (29%)
Lyon (50%) Aston Villa (50%)

Conference League

Pos	Pts	Team	Pts	GD	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
1	16	Strasbourg	16	11-5	75%	47%	34%	19%
2	14	Rakow	14	9-2	54%	23%	11%	3.7%
3	13	AEK	13	14-7	72%	46%	20%	9%
4	13	Sparta Praha	13	10-3	64%	35%	12%	4.7%
5	13	Rayo Vallecano	13	13-7	72%	40%	16%	7%
6	13	Shakhtar	13	10-5	62%	28%	9%	3.2%
7	13	Mainz	13	7-3	57%	31%	19%	9%
8	12	Larnaca	12	7-1	42%	15%	6%	1.8%
9	11	Lausanne	11	6-3	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
10	10	Crystal Palace	10	11-6	80%	57%	47%	33%
11	10	Lech	10	12-8	38%	14%	2.6%	< 1%
12	10	Samsunspor	10	10-6	28%	9%	2.3%	< 1%
13	10	Celje	10	8-7	25%	9%	2.2%	< 1%
14	10	Alkmaar	10	7-7	39%	19%	4.1%	1.7%
15	9	Fiorentina	9	8-5	53%	18%	12%	6%
16	9	Rijeka	9	5-2	18%	6%	1.5%	< 1%
17	9	Jagiellonia	9	5-4	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
18	8	Omonia	8	5-4	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
19	8	Noah	8	6-7	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
20	8	Drita	8	4-8	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
21	7	Kuopio	7	6-5	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
22	7	Shkendija	7	4-5	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
23	7	Zrinjski Mostar	7	8-10	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
24	7	Sigma Olomouc	7	7-9	20%	4.0%	< 1%	< 1%

Last 16	Quarter-finals	Semi-finals	Final	Champions
Lech (100%)
	Lech (38%) Rayo Vallecano (34%) Shakhtar (29%)
Shakhtar (50%) Rayo Vallecano (50%)
		AEK (21%) Alkmaar (19%) Rayo Vallecano (18%) Sparta Praha (15%) Lech (14%)
Alkmaar (100%)
	Alkmaar (39%) AEK (33%) Sparta Praha (28%)
Sparta Praha (50%) AEK (50%)
			Crystal Palace (47%) Fiorentina (12%) Strasbourg (9%)
Crystal Palace (100%)
	Crystal Palace (80%) Mainz (14%)
Larnaca (50%) Mainz (50%)
		Crystal Palace (57%) Fiorentina (18%) Strasbourg (13%)
Fiorentina (100%)
	Fiorentina (53%) Strasbourg (30%) Rakow (17%)
Rakow (50%) Strasbourg (50%)
				Crystal Palace (33%) Strasbourg (19%) AEK (9%) Mainz (9%)
Samsunspor (100%)
	Rayo Vallecano (38%) Shakhtar (34%) Samsunspor (28%)
Rayo Vallecano (50%) Shakhtar (50%)
		AEK (26%) Rayo Vallecano (21%) Sparta Praha (20%) Shakhtar (16%)
Celje (100%)
	AEK (40%) Sparta Praha (36%) Celje (25%)
AEK (50%) Sparta Praha (50%)
			Strasbourg (24%) Mainz (15%) AEK (13%) Rayo Vallecano (10%)
Sigma Olomouc (100%)
	Mainz (44%) Larnaca (36%) Sigma Olomouc (20%)
Mainz (50%) Larnaca (50%)
		Strasbourg (34%) Mainz (24%) Rakow (19%) Larnaca (13%)
Rijeka (100%)
	Strasbourg (45%) Rakow (37%) Rijeka (18%)
Strasbourg (50%) Rakow (50%)

Which countries get extra CL spots

		Score
Country	Probability	Average	Min	Max
ENG	99.95%	20.92	14.78	25.61
POL	36%	15.42	13.75	20.25
GER	26%	14.93	11.57	20.93
POR	18%	14.5	11.3	20.2
ESP	15%	14.45	11.13	20.25
ITA	4.5%	13.87	11.71	19.43
GRE	< 1%	11.79	10.2	15.9
FRA	< 1%	11.68	9.19	15.94

Number of semifinalists from POL; 263 mbit

n	0	1	2
Probability	66%	31%	3.3%
Chance if	16%	73%	98.1%

Number of semifinalists from GER; 254 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4
Probability	19%	42%	30%	9%	< 1%
Chance if	< 1%	10%	44%	82%	98%

Number of quarterfinalists from POL; 253 mbit

n	0	1	2
Probability	29%	51%	20%
Chance if	2.1%	39%	77%

Number of semifinalists from POR; 227 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	31%	49%	18%	1.9%
Chance if	< 1%	12%	58%	94%

Number of semifinalists from ESP; 209 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4
Probability	16%	36%	32%	13%	2.6%
Chance if	< 1%	1.8%	15%	51%	85%

Number of quarterfinalists from GER; 177 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4	5
Probability	< 1%	10%	32%	39%	17%	1.0%
Chance if	< 1%	< 1%	7%	31%	61%	80%

Number of quarterfinalists from POR; 171 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	3.4%	26%	47%	23%
Chance if	< 1%	< 1%	14%	50%

Number of quarterfinalists from ESP; 168 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
Probability	1.1%	8%	23%	33%	24%	9%	1.3%
Chance if	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	7%	27%	53%	76%

Number of finalists from GER; 167 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	44%	42%	13%	1.4%
Chance if	8%	29%	69%	95%

Number of finalists from POL; 126 mbit

n	0	1
Probability	87%	13%
Chance if	28%	87%

Wednesday, February 25, 2026

CL: And so they were 16

Pos	Pts	Team	Pts	GD	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
1	24	Arsenal	24	23-4	86%	64%	47%	30%
2	21	Bayern	21	22-8	78%	50%	31%	15%
3	18	Liverpool	18	20-8	76%	42%	19%	9%
4	17	Tottenham	17	17-7	58%	20%	6%	1.8%
5	16	Barcelona	16	22-14	54%	32%	14%	6%
6	16	Chelsea	16	17-10	52%	30%	13%	6%
7	16	Sporting	16	17-11	58%	17%	7%	2.6%
8	16	Man City	16	15-9	74%	35%	21%	11%
9	15	Real Madrid	15	21-12	49%	18%	9%	3.9%
10	15	Inter	15	15-7	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
11	14	Paris SG	14	21-11	52%	33%	15%	7%
12	14	Newcastle	14	17-7	42%	21%	8%	3.1%
13	13	Juventus	13	14-10	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
14	13	Atletico	13	17-15	43%	18%	5%	2.0%
15	13	Atalanta	13	10-10	17%	5%	1.6%	< 1%
16	12	Leverkusen	12	13-14	19%	8%	2.8%	< 1%
17	11	Dortmund	11	19-17	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
18	11	Olympiakos	11	10-14	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
19	10	Brugge	10	15-17	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
20	10	Galatasaray	10	9-11	23%	4.1%	< 1%	< 1%
21	10	Monaco	10	8-14	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
22	10	Karabakh Agdam	10	13-21	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
23	9	Bodoe Glimt	9	14-15	19%	2.5%	< 1%	< 1%
24	9	Benfica	9	10-12	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Last 16	Quarter-finals	Semi-finals	Final	Champions
Paris SG (100%)
	Paris SG (52%) Barcelona (24%) Chelsea (23%)
Chelsea (50%) Barcelona (50%)
		Paris SG (33%) Liverpool (22%) Barcelona (15%) Chelsea (14%)
Galatasaray (100%)
	Liverpool (42%) Tottenham (35%) Galatasaray (23%)
Liverpool (50%) Tottenham (50%)
			Arsenal (23%) Paris SG (15%) Bayern (15%) Liverpool (10%) Real Madrid (9%)
Real Madrid (100%)
	Real Madrid (49%) Man City (30%) Sporting (21%)
Sporting (50%) Man City (50%)
		Arsenal (32%) Bayern (24%) Real Madrid (18%) Man City (14%)
Atalanta (100%)
	Arsenal (44%) Bayern (40%) Atalanta (17%)
Arsenal (50%) Bayern (50%)
				Arsenal (30%) Bayern (15%) Man City (11%) Liverpool (9%)
Newcastle (100%)
	Newcastle (42%) Barcelona (29%) Chelsea (29%)
Barcelona (50%) Chelsea (50%)
		Newcastle (21%) Liverpool (19%) Atletico (18%) Barcelona (17%) Chelsea (16%)
Atletico (100%)
	Atletico (43%) Liverpool (34%) Tottenham (23%)
Tottenham (50%) Liverpool (50%)
			Arsenal (24%) Bayern (16%) Man City (13%) Liverpool (9%)
Bodoe Glimt (100%)
	Man City (44%) Sporting (37%) Bodoe Glimt (19%)
Man City (50%) Sporting (50%)
		Arsenal (33%) Bayern (26%) Man City (21%) Sporting (11%)
Leverkusen (100%)
	Arsenal (43%) Bayern (39%) Leverkusen (19%)
Bayern (50%) Arsenal (50%)

Tuesday, February 24, 2026

CL: And so they were 20

And so they were twenty. It will be tough for Monaco and Benfica to turn around their home losses. Will Juventus or Atalanta manage to win and avoid an Italian fiasco?

Champions League

Pos	Pts	Team	Pts	GD	R16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
1	24	Arsenal	24	23-4	100%	84%	63%	46%	30%
2	21	Bayern	21	22-8	100%	76%	49%	30%	15%
3	18	Liverpool	18	20-8	100%	75%	41%	19%	9%
4	17	Tottenham	17	17-7	100%	57%	20%	5%	1.8%
5	16	Barcelona	16	22-14	100%	55%	33%	14%	7%
6	16	Chelsea	16	17-10	100%	53%	31%	13%	6%
7	16	Sporting	16	17-11	100%	59%	18%	7%	2.6%
8	16	Man City	16	15-9	100%	75%	35%	21%	11%
9	15	Real Madrid	15	21-12	87%	43%	16%	8%	3.4%
10	15	Inter	15	15-7	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
11	14	Paris SG	14	21-11	95.7%	50%	32%	15%	7%
12	14	Newcastle	14	17-7	100%	42%	21%	8%	3.1%
13	13	Juventus	13	14-10	15%	6%	1.9%	< 1%	< 1%
14	13	Atletico	13	17-15	100%	43%	18%	5%	2.0%
15	13	Atalanta	13	10-10	16%	2.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
16	12	Leverkusen	12	13-14	100%	19%	8%	2.8%	< 1%
17	11	Dortmund	11	19-17	84%	18%	7%	2.6%	< 1%
18	11	Olympiakos	11	10-14	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
19	10	Brugge	10	15-17	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
20	10	Galatasaray	10	9-11	85%	19%	3.5%	< 1%	< 1%
21	10	Monaco	10	8-14	4.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
22	10	Karabakh Agdam	10	13-21	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
23	9	Bodoe Glimt	9	14-15	100%	19%	2.5%	< 1%	< 1%
24	9	Benfica	9	10-12	13%	4.6%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%

Last 16	Quarter-finals	Semi-finals	Final	Champions
Paris SG (96%)
	Paris SG (50%) Barcelona (25%) Chelsea (24%)
Chelsea (50%) Barcelona (50%)
		Paris SG (32%) Liverpool (22%) Barcelona (15%) Chelsea (14%)
Galatasaray (85%)
	Liverpool (41%) Tottenham (33%) Galatasaray (19%)
Liverpool (50%) Tottenham (50%)
			Arsenal (22%) Paris SG (15%) Bayern (14%) Liverpool (10%) Man City (9%)
Real Madrid (87%)
	Real Madrid (43%) Man City (31%) Sporting (22%)
Sporting (50%) Man City (50%)
		Arsenal (31%) Bayern (23%) Real Madrid (16%) Man City (15%)
Dortmund (84%)
	Arsenal (42%) Bayern (37%) Dortmund (18%)
Arsenal (50%) Bayern (50%)
				Arsenal (30%) Bayern (15%) Man City (11%) Liverpool (9%)
Newcastle (100%)
	Newcastle (42%) Barcelona (29%) Chelsea (29%)
Barcelona (50%) Chelsea (50%)
		Newcastle (21%) Liverpool (19%) Atletico (18%) Barcelona (17%) Chelsea (16%)
Atletico (100%)
	Atletico (43%) Liverpool (34%) Tottenham (23%)
Tottenham (50%) Liverpool (50%)
			Arsenal (24%) Bayern (16%) Man City (13%) Liverpool (9%)
Bodoe Glimt (100%)
	Man City (44%) Sporting (37%) Bodoe Glimt (19%)
Man City (50%) Sporting (50%)
		Arsenal (33%) Bayern (26%) Man City (21%) Sporting (11%)
Leverkusen (100%)
	Arsenal (43%) Bayern (39%) Leverkusen (19%)
Bayern (50%) Arsenal (50%)

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