CL: Italian disappointment continues

The Italian disappointment continues. Inter lost 3-1 against Bodee Glimt and their chances crashed from 84% to 45%. It remains one of the most open ties remaining together with Atletico vs Brugge where Atletico wins in 75% of the simulations.

Champions League

Pos	Pts	Team	Pts	GD	R16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
1	24	Arsenal	24	23-4	100%	85%	62%	46%	29%
2	21	Bayern	21	22-8	100%	76%	48%	30%	15%
3	18	Liverpool	18	20-8	100%	77%	42%	19%	9%
4	17	Tottenham	17	17-7	100%	59%	21%	6%	1.9%
5	16	Barcelona	16	22-14	100%	54%	33%	14%	7%
6	16	Chelsea	16	17-10	100%	53%	31%	13%	6%
7	16	Sporting	16	17-11	100%	51%	15%	6%	2.3%
8	16	Man City	16	15-9	100%	68%	32%	19%	10%
9	15	Real Madrid	15	21-12	87%	43%	16%	8%	3.4%
10	15	Inter	15	15-7	45%	23%	10%	5%	2.4%
11	14	Paris SG	14	21-11	95.7%	50%	32%	15%	7%
12	14	Newcastle	14	17-7	>99.99%	42%	22%	8%	3.2%
13	13	Juventus	13	14-10	15%	6%	1.9%	< 1%	< 1%
14	13	Atletico	13	17-15	75%	32%	13%	4.0%	1.5%
15	13	Atalanta	13	10-10	16%	2.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
16	12	Leverkusen	12	13-14	95.8%	18%	7%	2.4%	< 1%
17	11	Dortmund	11	19-17	84%	18%	7%	2.6%	< 1%
18	11	Olympiakos	11	10-14	4.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
19	10	Brugge	10	15-17	25%	6%	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%
20	10	Galatasaray	10	9-11	85%	19%	3.5%	< 1%	< 1%
21	10	Monaco	10	8-14	4.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
22	10	Karabakh Agdam	10	13-21	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
23	9	Bodoe Glimt	9	14-15	55%	10%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%
24	9	Benfica	9	10-12	13%	4.6%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%

Last 16		Quarter-finals		Semi-finals		Final		Champions
Paris SG (96%)
		Paris SG (50%) Barcelona (25%) Chelsea (24%)
Chelsea (50%) Barcelona (50%)
				Paris SG (32%) Liverpool (22%) Barcelona (15%) Chelsea (14%)
Galatasaray (85%)
		Liverpool (41%) Tottenham (33%) Galatasaray (19%)
Liverpool (50%) Tottenham (50%)
						Arsenal (22%) Paris SG (15%) Bayern (14%) Liverpool (10%) Man City (9%)
Real Madrid (87%)
		Real Madrid (43%) Man City (31%) Sporting (22%)
Sporting (50%) Man City (50%)
				Arsenal (31%) Bayern (23%) Real Madrid (16%) Man City (15%)
Dortmund (84%)
		Arsenal (42%) Bayern (37%) Dortmund (18%)
Bayern (50%) Arsenal (50%)
								Arsenal (29%) Bayern (15%) Man City (10%) Liverpool (9%)
Newcastle (100%)
		Newcastle (42%) Barcelona (29%) Chelsea (28%)
Barcelona (50%) Chelsea (50%)
				Newcastle (22%) Liverpool (20%) Barcelona (17%) Chelsea (16%) Atletico (13%)
Atletico (75%) Brugge (25%)
		Liverpool (36%) Atletico (32%) Tottenham (26%)
Tottenham (50%) Liverpool (50%)
						Arsenal (24%) Bayern (16%) Man City (11%) Liverpool (9%)
Bodoe Glimt (55%) Inter (45%)
		Man City (37%) Sporting (29%) Inter (23%)
Man City (50%) Sporting (50%)
				Arsenal (32%) Bayern (25%) Man City (17%) Inter (10%)
Leverkusen (96%)
		Arsenal (43%) Bayern (39%) Leverkusen (18%)
Arsenal (50%) Bayern (50%)

Which countries get extra CL spots

		Score
Country	Probability	Average	Min	Max
ENG	99.85%	20.71	14.67	25.83
GER	43%	15.62	10.57	21.79
POL	22%	14.97	12	22.5
POR	22%	14.8	11.3	22.5
ITA	6%	13.57	9.57	22.79
ESP	6%	13.6	9.25	19.94
GRE	< 1%	11.97	9.2	19.8
CYP	< 1%	11.47	9.63	16.88
FRA	< 1%	11.6	8.69	16.19
CZE	< 1%	9.77	7.3	16
TUR	< 1%	9.29	6.6	16.3

Number of semifinalists from GER; 234 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4
Probability	18%	42%	30%	9%	1.1%
Chance if	7%	30%	66%	91%	99.0%

Number of semifinalists from POR; 210 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	29%	49%	20%	2.2%
Chance if	2.1%	16%	59%	94%

Number of quarterfinalists from POR; 200 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	2.9%	25%	46%	25%
Chance if	< 1%	< 1%	16%	56%

Number of quarterfinalists from POL; 187 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	28%	53%	19%	< 1%
Chance if	< 1%	20%	60%	92%

Number of quarterfinalists from GER; 186 mbit

n	1	2	3	4	5
Probability	9%	32%	40%	18%	2.0%
Chance if	4.0%	21%	50%	78%	92%

Number of semifinalists from POL; 168 mbit

n	0	1	2
Probability	68%	29%	2.7%
Chance if	9%	47%	92%

Number of finalists from GER; 143 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	44%	42%	13%	1.4%
Chance if	22%	51%	82%	97%

Number of finalists from POR; 110 mbit

n	0	1	2
Probability	65%	31%	3.6%
Chance if	11%	37%	83%

Number of quarterfinalists from ITA; 107 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4
Probability	2.6%	36%	42%	17%	2.7%
Chance if	< 1%	< 1%	2.6%	20%	57%

Number of semifinalists from ESP; 105 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4
Probability	17%	38%	31%	12%	1.9%
Chance if	< 1%	< 1%	4.5%	24%	61%

 

CL: A bad night for Italian teams.

 Both Juventus and Atalanta lost away with multiple goals margin.

Champions League

Pos	Pts	Team	Pts	GD	R16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
1	24	Arsenal	24	23-4	100%	86%	62%	46%	29%
2	21	Bayern	21	22-8	100%	77%	48%	30%	15%
3	18	Liverpool	18	20-8	100%	77%	42%	19%	10%
4	17	Tottenham	17	17-7	100%	60%	21%	6%	1.9%
5	16	Barcelona	16	22-14	100%	56%	34%	15%	7%
6	16	Chelsea	16	17-10	100%	54%	32%	13%	6%
7	16	Sporting	16	17-11	100%	44%	13%	5%	1.9%
8	16	Man City	16	15-9	100%	62%	29%	17%	9%
9	15	Real Madrid	15	21-12	87%	43%	16%	8%	3.4%
10	15	Inter	15	15-7	84%	44%	18%	10%	4.4%
11	14	Paris SG	14	21-11	95.6%	50%	32%	15%	7%
12	14	Newcastle	14	17-7	91%	38%	20%	7%	2.8%
13	13	Juventus	13	14-10	15%	6%	1.9%	< 1%	< 1%
14	13	Atletico	13	17-15	70%	30%	12%	3.7%	1.3%
15	13	Atalanta	13	10-10	16%	2.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
16	12	Leverkusen	12	13-14	65%	12%	4.2%	1.5%	< 1%
17	11	Dortmund	11	19-17	84%	18%	7%	2.6%	< 1%
18	11	Olympiakos	11	10-14	35%	3.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
19	10	Brugge	10	15-17	30%	8%	1.8%	< 1%	< 1%
20	10	Galatasaray	10	9-11	85%	20%	3.5%	< 1%	< 1%
21	10	Monaco	10	8-14	4.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
22	10	Karabakh Agdam	10	13-21	9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
23	9	Bodoe Glimt	9	14-15	16%	3.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
24	9	Benfica	9	10-12	13%	4.6%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%

Last 16		Quarter-finals		Semi-finals		Final		Champions
Paris SG (96%)
		Paris SG (50%) Barcelona (25%) Chelsea (24%)
Barcelona (50%) Chelsea (50%)
				Paris SG (32%) Liverpool (22%) Barcelona (15%) Chelsea (14%)
Galatasaray (85%)
		Liverpool (41%) Tottenham (33%) Galatasaray (20%)
Tottenham (50%) Liverpool (50%)
						Arsenal (22%) Paris SG (15%) Bayern (14%) Liverpool (10%) Man City (9%)
Real Madrid (87%)
		Real Madrid (43%) Man City (31%) Sporting (22%)
Man City (50%) Sporting (50%)
				Arsenal (31%) Bayern (23%) Real Madrid (16%) Man City (15%)
Dortmund (84%)
		Arsenal (42%) Bayern (37%) Dortmund (18%)
Arsenal (50%) Bayern (50%)
								Arsenal (29%) Bayern (15%) Liverpool (10%) Man City (9%)
Newcastle (91%)
		Newcastle (38%) Barcelona (31%) Chelsea (30%)
Chelsea (50%) Barcelona (50%)
				Liverpool (21%) Newcastle (20%) Barcelona (18%) Chelsea (17%) Atletico (12%)
Atletico (70%) Brugge (30%)
		Liverpool (36%) Atletico (30%) Tottenham (26%)
Liverpool (50%) Tottenham (50%)
						Arsenal (23%) Bayern (16%) Inter (10%) Liverpool (9%)
Inter (84%)
		Inter (44%) Man City (31%) Sporting (22%)
Sporting (50%) Man City (50%)
				Arsenal (32%) Bayern (24%) Inter (18%) Man City (14%)
Leverkusen (65%) Olympiakos (35%)
		Arsenal (44%) Bayern (40%)
Bayern (50%) Arsenal (50%)

 

16 PL teams with title chance

Below are the 16 teams with chance to win a title this year, that is, when we simulate the remainder of the season a million times they win one of the titles at least once. The percentages are shown in the table below.

Titles

Team	League	FA Cup	League Cup	Europe
Arsenal	86%	44%	61%	30%
Man City	12%	11%	39%	9%
Aston Villa	2.6%			40%
Liverpool	< 1%	13%		9%
Chelsea	< 1%	13%		6%
Man United	< 1%
Brentford	< 1%	3.1%
Newcastle	< 1%	6%		2.8%
Fulham		5%
Sunderland		< 1%
Crystal Palace				33%
Leeds		2.9%
Tottenham				1.7%
Forest				6%
West Ham		1.1%
Wolves		< 1%

 

PL: Man City decrease the gap in the title race

Arsenal dropped two points against Brentford. On average the finish seven points ahead of city and win the league 86% of the simulations. At the bottom we have seven teams involved in the relegation battle. Most important are the matches involving Forest and West Ham, as detailed in table further down. In most simulations, team #17 finishes on 39-43 points. 

Hot Teams
Man United: 13 points in the last 5 matches, 5.9 more than expected
Bournemouth: 11 points in the last 5 matches, 4.8 more than expected
West Ham: 10 points in the last 5 matches, 4.4 more than expected
Chelsea: 13 points in the last 5 matches, 3.3 more than expected
Leeds: 8 points in the last 5 matches, 2.4 more than expected

Cold Teams
Brighton: 2 points in the last 5 matches, 5.3 less than expected
Tottenham: 2 points in the last 5 matches, 5.1 less than expected
Newcastle: 4 points in the last 5 matches, 3.2 less than expected
Fulham: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 3.2 less than expected
Crystal Palace: 4 points in the last 5 matches, 2.6 less than expected

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
54	Arsenal	81.7	+48	< 1%	100%	>99.99%	>99.99%	99.99%	86%	< 1%	< 1%	>99.99%
53	Man City	74.4	+38	< 1%	>99.99%	99.95%	99.70%	98.6%	12%	< 1%	< 1%	99.73%
50	Aston Villa	71.4	+18	< 1%	99.91%	99.50%	97.7%	92%	2.6%	< 1%	1.3%	98.6%
42	Liverpool	63.3	+14	< 1%	93%	83%	63%	37%	< 1%	4.2%	27%	66%
44	Chelsea	62.8	+21	< 1%	93%	83%	62%	36%	< 1%	4.5%	28%	64%
45	Man United	62.6	+12	< 1%	90%	77%	55%	30%	< 1%	7%	33%	55%
40	Brentford	57.3	+7	< 1%	54%	30%	13%	4.4%	< 1%	18%	41%	13%
36	Newcastle	54.2	+2	< 1%	25%	11%	3.7%	< 1%	< 1%	18%	22%	6%
37	Bournemouth	53.6	-2	< 1%	20%	8%	2.7%	< 1%	< 1%	17%	16%	2.7%
37	Everton	52.5	-3	< 1%	14%	5%	1.8%	< 1%	< 1%	13%	11%	1.8%
34	Fulham	50.6	-5	< 1%	7%	2.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	8%	9%	< 1%
31	Brighton	47.9	+1	< 1%	2.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	4.2%	4.0%	< 1%
32	Crystal Palace	46.6	-8	1.9%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.4%	34%	< 1%
33	Sunderland	46.3	-14	2.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.8%	1.3%	< 1%
30	Leeds	45.4	-11	3.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.1%	2.1%	< 1%
29	Tottenham	45.1	-2	3.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.3%	< 1%	1.8%
27	Forest	41.5	-16	17%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	6%
24	West Ham	36.1	-25	75%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.1%	< 1%
18	Burnley	30.7	-29	95.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
9	Wolves	20.5	-42	99.99%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Important matches for title race
Tottenham vs Arsenal (3%)	Home Win (25%)	Draw (23%)	Away Win (53%)
Arsenal	78%	83%	90%
Man City	17%	14%	8%
Aston Villa	4.3%	3.2%	1.6%

 

Important matches for CL race
Forest vs Liverpool (3.2%)	Home Win (32%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (44%)
Liverpool	56%	63%	75%
Man United	59%	56%	52%
Chelsea	68%	65%	61%
Brentford	15%	14%	12%
Chelsea vs Burnley (2.6%)	Home Win (72%)	Draw (17%)	Away Win (12%)
Chelsea	69%	55%	48%
Man United	54%	58%	61%
Liverpool	64%	68%	71%
Brentford	12%	15%	16%

 

Important matches for avoiding relegation
West Ham vs Bournemouth (4.6%)	Home Win (39%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (37%)
West Ham	36%	22%	16%
Forest	79%	85%	87%
Tottenham	95.2%	97.0%	97.7%
Leeds	95%	96.7%	97.4%
Forest vs Liverpool (2.6%)	Home Win (32%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (44%)
Forest	91%	83%	78%
West Ham	21%	25%	29%
Burnley	3.2%	4.4%	5%

	Burnley			West Ham			Forest			Leeds			Tottenham			Sunderland			Crystal Palace
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
53	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	100%	5%	2.0%	100%	4.6%	1.7%	100%	8%	2.8%	100%	8%	2.9%	100%
52	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	100%	1.3%	< 1%	100%	8%	2.9%	100%	7%	2.7%	100%	12%	3.8%	100%	12%	4.1%	100%
51	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	100%	2.1%	< 1%	100%	12%	3.7%	100%	11%	3.7%	100%	17%	4.7%	100%	18%	5%	100%
50	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	100%	3.6%	1.5%	100%	17%	5%	100%	16%	4.6%	100%	23%	6%	100%	24%	6%	100%
49	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	100%	6%	2.2%	100%	24%	6%	100%	22%	6%	100%	30%	7%	100%	32%	8%	100%
48	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	100%	9%	2.9%	100%	31%	7%	100%	29%	7%	100%	38%	8%	100%	41%	9%	100%
47	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	99.9%	13%	4.2%	100%	39%	9%	100%	37%	8%	100%	47%	9%	100%	50%	9%	100%
46	< 1%	< 1%	100%	1.5%	< 1%	99.9%	18%	5%	>99.99%	48%	9%	>99.99%	46%	9%	>99.99%	56%	9%	>99.99%	59%	9%	>99.99%
45	< 1%	< 1%	100%	2.5%	1.0%	99.4%	24%	6%	99.94%	57%	9%	99.98%	55%	9%	>99.99%	65%	9%	99.96%	68%	9%	99.98%
44	< 1%	< 1%	99%	4.2%	1.7%	98%	32%	8%	99.7%	66%	9%	99.9%	64%	9%	99.94%	73%	8%	99.8%	76%	8%	99.9%
43	< 1%	< 1%	95%	7%	2.5%	93%	41%	8%	99.1%	74%	8%	99.4%	72%	8%	99.7%	80%	7%	99.3%	83%	7%	99.6%
42	< 1%	< 1%	89%	10%	3.3%	85%	49%	9%	97.4%	81%	7%	98.3%	79%	7%	98.9%	86%	6%	98.0%	88%	6%	98.3%
41	1.5%	< 1%	76%	15%	4.7%	73%	59%	9%	94%	87%	6%	95.3%	85%	6%	97.0%	91%	4.9%	95%	93%	4.1%	95.8%
40	2.5%	< 1%	60%	21%	6%	58%	67%	9%	88%	92%	4.5%	90%	90%	4.9%	93%	95%	3.5%	89%	95.7%	3.0%	90%
39	3.9%	1.5%	43%	28%	7%	43%	75%	8%	79%	95%	3.2%	82%	94%	3.6%	86%	96.9%	2.3%	80%	97.6%	2.0%	82%
38	6%	2.3%	27%	36%	8%	29%	82%	7%	69%	97.1%	2.2%	70%	96.1%	2.5%	78%	98.5%	1.5%	68%	98.8%	1.2%	71%
37	9%	3.1%	16%	45%	9%	18%	88%	6%	58%	98.4%	1.4%	57%	97.8%	1.7%	66%	99.32%	< 1%	56%	99.47%	< 1%	57%
36	13%	4.0%	8%	55%	9%	11%	92%	4.3%	46%	99.23%	< 1%	42%	98.9%	1.0%	55%	99.73%	< 1%	42%	99.79%	< 1%	43%
35	19%	5%	4.0%	64%	10%	6%	95.2%	3.2%	34%	99.67%	< 1%	31%	99.44%	< 1%	42%	99.92%	< 1%	30%	99.92%	< 1%	29%
34	25%	7%	1.7%	73%	9%	2.9%	97.3%	2.1%	23%	99.87%	< 1%	19%	99.76%	< 1%	30%	99.99%	< 1%	20%	99.98%	< 1%	20%
33	33%	7%	< 1%	81%	7%	1.3%	98.6%	1.3%	15%	99.95%	< 1%	11%	99.91%	< 1%	20%	100%	< 1%	18%	>99.99%	< 1%	13%
32	41%	9%	< 1%	87%	6%	< 1%	99.34%	< 1%	9%	99.99%	< 1%	5%	99.97%	< 1%	14%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-
31	50%	9%	< 1%	92%	4.9%	< 1%	99.73%	< 1%	5%	>99.99%	< 1%	< 1%	>99.99%	< 1%	6%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-
30	59%	9%	< 1%	95.3%	3.3%	< 1%	99.90%	< 1%	2%	100%	< 1%	-	>99.99%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-
29	68%	9%	< 1%	97.6%	2.3%	< 1%	99.97%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-
28	76%	8%	< 1%	98.9%	1.3%	< 1%	>99.99%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-
27	83%	7%	< 1%	99.54%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-
26	89%	6%	< 1%	99.85%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-
25	93%	4.2%	< 1%	99.98%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points