PL: Forest out of the woods

Forest thrashed Sunderland and the relegation battle is thereby a head-to-head bnattle between Hammers and Spurs. All their remaining matches are important but Tottenham's trip up to already relegated Wolverhampton is an opportunity.

Below are the stats for the three upcoming matches and their chances given how manu points they finish on.  

Important matches for avoiding relegation
Wolves vs Tottenham (11%)	Home Win (42%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (34%)
Tottenham	24%	33%	55%
West Ham	76%	68%	47%
West Ham vs Everton (10.7%)	Home Win (41%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (35%)
West Ham	79%	60%	49%
Tottenham	23%	41%	51%
Brentford vs West Ham (7.5%)	Home Win (57%)	Draw (21%)	Away Win (21%)
West Ham	56%	66%	83%
Tottenham	44%	35%	19%

	Tottenham			West Ham
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
46	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
45	< 1%	< 1%	-	2.6%	1.7%	99.9%
44	< 1%	< 1%	99.7%	3.8%	1.2%	99.8%
43	2.8%	1.8%	98.8%	9%	5%	98.5%
42	4.0%	1.2%	94%	16%	7%	97.0%
41	10%	6%	87%	23%	6%	92%
40	17%	8%	79%	37%	15%	83%
39	24%	7%	63%	51%	14%	76%
38	39%	15%	49%	62%	11%	61%
37	53%	14%	38%	77%	15%	48%
36	63%	11%	23%	87%	10%	37%
35	78%	15%	12%	93%	5%	21%
34	88%	10%	7%	98.0%	5%	12%
33	93%	5%	2.0%	100%	2.0%	7%
32	98.1%	4.9%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-
31	100%	1.9%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-
30	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is successful, if they finish with X points

 Coming Matches

Home		Draw		Away
Fulham	38%	24%	38%	Aston Villa
Liverpool	62%	20%	18%	Crystal Palace
West Ham	41%	24%	35%	Everton
Wolves	42%	24%	34%	Tottenham
Arsenal	72%	16%	12%	Newcastle
Man United	55%	22%	23%	Brentford
Leeds	63%	20%	17%	Burnley
Brentford	57%	21%	21%	West Ham
Newcastle	46%	24%	30%	Brighton
Wolves	46%	24%	30%	Sunderland

Most likely combo of teams in CL

61%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
18%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Forest, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
5.0%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Brighton, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
2.6%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Brighton, Man City, Man United
1.8%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Bournemouth, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
1.7%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
1.6%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Everton, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
1.2%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Brentford, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
1.1%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Chelsea, Man City, Man United
1.1%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Brentford, Man City, Man United

Most likely combo of teams being relegated

63%	Burnley, Tottenham, Wolves
36%	Burnley, West Ham, Wolves

PL: Man City top of the table.

Man City with an early winner against Burnley meaning they go top of the table with same points and goal difference as Arsenal, but three more goals. Next in the title race is Arsenal hosting the Magpies, and as you can see in the table below there is a 30% swing between a win and a loss, so obviously a crucial match. In the simulations, Man City drop on average 5.9 points while Arsenal drop 3.9 points, but these simulations do not take into account that some of the opponents may be unmotivated or that title contenders might get nervous.

Bournemouth dropped the win in the last minute losing two points in the race for Europa. They still get 24% to get to EL.

Important matches for title race
Arsenal vs Newcastle (8%)	Home Win (72%)	Draw (16%)	Away Win (12%)
Arsenal	77%	59%	47%
Man City	23%	41%	53%

	Arsenal			Man City
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
85	14%	14%	98.5%	4.0%	4.0%	91%
84	14%	< 1%	-	4.0%	< 1%	-
83	33%	19%	93%	13%	9%	74%
82	49%	16%	84%	23%	10%	57%
81	59%	10%	74%	30%	7%	45%
80	75%	17%	63%	47%	17%	31%
79	85%	9%	48%	60%	13%	19%
78	91%	6%	35%	70%	10%	12%
77	95.8%	5%	25%	83%	12%	6%
76	98.0%	2.2%	15%	90%	7%	3.0%
75	99.12%	1.1%	9%	94%	4.5%	1.4%
74	99.73%	< 1%	5%	97.6%	3.5%	< 1%
73	99.92%	< 1%	2%	99.03%	1.4%	< 1%
72	99.98%	< 1%	< 1%	99.63%	< 1%	< 1%
71	>99.99%	< 1%	< 1%	99.93%	< 1%	< 1%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is successful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for EL race (EL or CL)
Newcastle vs Brighton (10.2%)	Home Win (46%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (30%)
Brighton	44%	58%	81%
Newcastle	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%
Bournemouth	30%	27%	22%
Man United vs Brentford (7.8%)	Home Win (55%)	Draw (22%)	Away Win (23%)
Brentford	15%	25%	47%
Brighton	62%	59%	52%
Bournemouth	29%	26%	22%
West Ham vs Everton (7.2%)	Home Win (41%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (35%)
Everton	12%	19%	40%
Brighton	62%	60%	54%
Brentford vs West Ham (6.5%)	Home Win (57%)	Draw (21%)	Away Win (21%)
Brentford	34%	15%	9%

PL: Chelsea have lost five consecutive matches in the league

Chelsea have zero points the last five matches, 7.1 less than in the average simulation. Brighton is with their win, keeping the CL dream alive and have a good chance reaching Europa League.

 

Cold Teams
Chelsea: 0 points in the last 5 matches, 7.1 less than expected
Tottenham: 2 points in the last 5 matches, 4.2 less than expected
Burnley: 1 point in the last 5 matches, 3.4 less than expected
Brentford: 5 points in the last 5 matches, 2.9 less than expected
Fulham: 5 points in the last 5 matches, 1.7 less than expected

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
70	Arsenal	81.2	+44	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	100%	79%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
67	Man City	78.0	+40	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	>99.99%	21%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
58	Man United	66.0	+15	< 1%	99.97%	99.76%	98.4%	81%	< 1%	< 1%	1.5%	98.4%
58	Aston Villa	65.7	+7	< 1%	99.98%	99.78%	98.3%	74%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	99.09%
55	Liverpool	63.2	+13	< 1%	99.13%	97.3%	91%	44%	< 1%	1.0%	7%	91%
50	Brighton	56.2	+10	< 1%	61%	37%	5%	< 1%	< 1%	20%	48%	5%
48	Bournemouth	55.4	+1	< 1%	40%	22%	2.4%	< 1%	< 1%	19%	31%	2.4%
48	Chelsea	54.4	+9	< 1%	33%	15%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%	14%	46%	1.7%
48	Brentford	54.2	+4	< 1%	27%	12%	1.8%	< 1%	< 1%	17%	20%	1.8%
47	Everton	54.2	+1	< 1%	25%	12%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	16%	19%	< 1%
46	Sunderland	51.7	-6	< 1%	7%	2.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	6%	5%	< 1%
45	Fulham	51.4	-4	< 1%	5%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	5%	3.9%	< 1%
43	Crystal Palace	49.0	-6	< 1%	1.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	53%	< 1%
42	Newcastle	48.5	-4	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
39	Leeds	45.7	-7	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	13%	< 1%
36	Forest	42.1	-10	4.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	19%
33	West Ham	38.5	-19	35%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
31	Tottenham	36.7	-13	61%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
20	Burnley	24.5	-38	>99.99%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
17	Wolves	23.3	-38	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

 

Important matches for CL race
Liverpool vs Crystal Palace (6%)	Home Win (61%)	Draw (21%)	Away Win (19%)
Liverpool	96.1%	87%	80%
Brighton	3.2%	7%	9%
Chelsea	< 1%	2.7%	3.6%
Bournemouth	1.6%	3.2%	4.5%
Brentford	1.2%	2.5%	3.4%
Man United vs Brentford (3%)	Home Win (53%)	Draw (23%)	Away Win (24%)
Brentford	< 1%	1.3%	5%
Man United	99.76%	98.2%	95.4%

 

Important matches for EL race (EL or CL)
Man United vs Brentford (7.5%)	Home Win (53%)	Draw (23%)	Away Win (24%)
Brentford	12%	21%	43%
Brighton	55%	53%	47%
Bournemouth vs Leeds (7.4%)	Home Win (56%)	Draw (22%)	Away Win (22%)
Bournemouth	45%	23%	15%
Brighton	49%	56%	58%
West Ham vs Everton (6.7%)	Home Win (40%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (36%)
Everton	10%	16%	35%
Brighton	56%	54%	49%

 

PL: Goalless draw in London derby

West Ham traveled to Selhurst Park in south London and missed the chance to create a gap down to Spurs. It's gonna be a tight race. The team that finishes 4th from the bottom takes more than 40 points in less than 25% of simulations and similarly they take less than 37 points in less than 25% of simulations, so somewhere around 37-40 points will be needed to win the new contract.

 

Important matches for avoiding relegation
Wolves vs Tottenham (11.4%)	Home Win (43%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (33%)
Tottenham	26%	36%	59%
West Ham	76%	68%	49%
Forest	97.7%	96.4%	93%
West Ham vs Everton (10.5%)	Home Win (40%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (36%)
West Ham	81%	61%	50%
Tottenham	26%	43%	52%
Forest	94%	96.5%	97.6%

	Tottenham			West Ham			Forest
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
46	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	13%	7%	100%
45	< 1%	< 1%	-	2.4%	1.6%	99.99%	21%	8%	100%
44	< 1%	< 1%	99.9%	3.5%	1.1%	99.9%	29%	8%	>99.99%
43	2.7%	1.8%	99.6%	9%	5%	99.3%	45%	16%	99.94%
42	3.8%	1.2%	98%	16%	7%	98.2%	58%	13%	99.8%
41	9%	6%	92%	22%	6%	94%	68%	10%	98.7%
40	17%	7%	86%	36%	14%	87%	82%	14%	96.5%
39	23%	6%	71%	50%	14%	79%	90%	8%	91%
38	38%	15%	55%	60%	11%	64%	95%	4.3%	81%
37	52%	14%	42%	76%	16%	49%	98.6%	3.9%	69%
36	63%	11%	25%	87%	11%	37%	100%	1.4%	51%
35	78%	15%	13%	92%	5%	22%	100%	< 1%	-
34	88%	10%	8%	97.9%	6%	12%	100%	< 1%	-
33	93%	5%	2.2%	100%	2.1%	7%	100%	< 1%	-
32	98.1%	5%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-
31	100%	1.9%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-
30	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

 

PL: Title race is on.

 City won the league final at Etihad and the title race is now very tight. Advantage City with form and momentum, but advantage Arsenal with slightly easier schedule with only five matches left. Tough match already on Saturday though when the Magpies visit the Emirates. The two title runners are favorites in all their remaining matches, but we note that they win the remaining 11 matches only in 1 of 300 simulations, so there will most likely be more slips. The question is from whom.

The CL race is almost done with Arsenal, City, United, Villa, and Pool playing CL next season in 87% of the simulations. In 17% of the simulations they are joined by Forest.

In the relegation race, Tottenham almost got a win against Brighton. Next weekend, they travel to Wolves for a crucial chance for some much needed points. If they win they have 60% chance to avoid relegation, 38% with a draw, and 28% with a loss. At the same time, West Ham host Everton in an almost equally important battle.

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
70	Arsenal	81.2	+44	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	100%	79%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
67	Man City	78.0	+40	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	>99.99%	21%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
58	Man United	66.0	+15	< 1%	99.97%	99.77%	98.4%	81%	< 1%	< 1%	1.5%	98.4%
58	Aston Villa	65.7	+7	< 1%	99.98%	99.78%	98.2%	74%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	99.07%
55	Liverpool	63.2	+13	< 1%	99.15%	97.3%	90%	44%	< 1%	< 1%	8%	90%
48	Chelsea	55.5	+12	< 1%	50%	30%	4.9%	< 1%	< 1%	13%	55%	4.9%
48	Bournemouth	55.4	+1	< 1%	40%	21%	2.3%	< 1%	< 1%	19%	32%	2.3%
47	Brighton	54.9	+8	< 1%	41%	22%	2.6%	< 1%	< 1%	19%	32%	2.6%
48	Brentford	54.2	+4	< 1%	27%	12%	1.8%	< 1%	< 1%	18%	21%	1.8%
47	Everton	54.2	+1	< 1%	26%	11%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	16%	20%	< 1%
46	Sunderland	51.8	-6	< 1%	7%	2.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	6%	5%	< 1%
45	Fulham	51.4	-4	< 1%	5%	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	6%	4.1%	< 1%
42	Crystal Palace	49.8	-5	< 1%	3.9%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.6%	54%	< 1%
42	Newcastle	48.5	-4	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%
39	Leeds	45.7	-7	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	13%	< 1%
36	Forest	42.1	-10	4.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	19%
32	West Ham	38.4	-20	37%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
31	Tottenham	36.7	-13	59%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
20	Burnley	24.5	-38	>99.99%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
17	Wolves	23.3	-38	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Important matches for title race
Burnley vs Man City (6.6%)	Home Win (20%)	Draw (21%)	Away Win (59%)
Arsenal	91%	86%	72%
Man City	9%	14%	28%
Arsenal vs Newcastle (6.6%)	Home Win (72%)	Draw (16%)	Away Win (12%)
Arsenal	84%	69%	59%
Man City	16%	31%	41%

	Arsenal			Man City
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
85	15%	15%	99.0%	2.1%	2.1%	92%
84	15%	< 1%	-	2.1%	< 1%	-
83	34%	19%	95.2%	8%	6%	75%
82	51%	17%	89%	14%	7%	57%
81	60%	10%	83%	20%	6%	45%
80	77%	16%	73%	34%	14%	32%
79	86%	9%	61%	45%	11%	19%
78	91%	6%	50%	56%	11%	12%
77	96.2%	4.8%	37%	69%	13%	6%
76	98.2%	2.0%	25%	78%	9%	2.9%
75	99.22%	1.0%	17%	86%	8%	1.4%
74	99.76%	< 1%	10%	92%	6%	< 1%
73	99.93%	< 1%	5%	95.7%	3.5%	< 1%
72	99.98%	< 1%	3%	97.8%	2.2%	< 1%
71	>99.99%	< 1%	2%	99.17%	1.3%	< 1%
70	100%	< 1%	-	99.68%	< 1%	< 1%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for CL race
Liverpool vs Crystal Palace (5.8%)	Home Win (61%)	Draw (20%)	Away Win (19%)
Liverpool	95.4%	86%	79%
Chelsea	3.1%	7%	9%
Brighton	1.7%	3.4%	4.9%
Bournemouth	1.5%	3.0%	4.3%
Brentford	1.1%	2.3%	3.3%
Brighton vs Chelsea (4.4%)	Home Win (48%)	Draw (23%)	Away Win (28%)
Chelsea	1.7%	3.9%	11%
Brighton	4.9%	< 1%	< 1%
Liverpool	91%	92%	88%

Important matches for EL race (EL or CL)
Brighton vs Chelsea (15.6%)	Home Win (48%)	Draw (23%)	Away Win (28%)
Brighton	52%	26%	14%
Chelsea	48%	61%	80%

Important matches for avoiding relegation
Wolves vs Tottenham (10.6%)	Home Win (43%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (33%)
Tottenham	28%	38%	60%
West Ham	74%	66%	48%
Forest	97.8%	96.6%	93%
West Ham vs Everton (9.7%)	Home Win (40%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (36%)
West Ham	78%	60%	49%
Tottenham	28%	44%	53%
Crystal Palace vs West Ham (7.1%)	Home Win (55%)	Draw (22%)	Away Win (23%)
West Ham	55%	65%	82%
Tottenham	48%	39%	25%

	Tottenham			West Ham			Forest
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
47	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	100%	6%	1.7%	100%
46	< 1%	< 1%	100%	1.0%	< 1%	100%	13%	7%	100%
45	< 1%	< 1%	-	2.9%	1.9%	100%	21%	8%	100%
44	< 1%	< 1%	99.8%	6%	2.7%	99.9%	29%	8%	>99.99%
43	2.6%	1.7%	99.3%	9%	3.1%	99.2%	45%	16%	99.92%
42	3.8%	1.2%	97%	16%	8%	98.2%	58%	13%	99.7%
41	9%	6%	91%	25%	8%	94%	68%	11%	98.6%
40	17%	7%	84%	34%	9%	87%	82%	14%	96.2%
39	23%	7%	73%	48%	15%	79%	90%	8%	92%
38	38%	15%	56%	61%	12%	64%	95%	4.4%	82%
37	52%	14%	42%	71%	11%	49%	98.6%	3.9%	69%
36	63%	11%	30%	84%	12%	38%	100%	1.4%	55%
35	78%	15%	16%	91%	8%	22%	100%	< 1%	-
34	88%	10%	9%	95.3%	4.2%	12%	100%	< 1%	-
33	93%	5%	4.6%	98.8%	3.5%	7%	100%	< 1%	-
32	98.1%	5%	1.2%	100%	1.2%	2%	100%	< 1%	-
31	100%	1.9%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-
30	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

 

 

Europa and Conference League - Semi finals

 

Final		Champions
Freiburg (54%) Braga (46%)
		Aston Villa (47%) Forest (19%) Freiburg (19%)
Aston Villa (67%) Forest (33%)

 

 

Final		Champions
Crystal Palace (83%) Shakhtar (17%)
		Crystal Palace (53%) Strasbourg (24%) Rayo Vallecano (16%)
Strasbourg (57%) Rayo Vallecano (43%)

 

Which countries get extra CL spots

		Score
Country	Probability	Average	Min	Max
ENG	100%	19.86	19.06	20.17
GER	78%	16.02	15.21	16.71
ESP	13%	15.57	15.13	16.38
POR	9%	15.28	14.8	15.8

Number of finalists from GER; 277 mbit

n	0	1	2
Probability	19%	49%	31%
Chance if	27%	85%	99.69%

Number of finalists from ESP; 140 mbit

n	0	1	2
Probability	45%	46%	9%
Chance if	< 1%	16%	53%

Number of finalists from POR; 104 mbit

n	0	1
Probability	54%	46%
Chance if	< 1%	19%

Number of tournament winners for GER; 66 mbit

n	0	1	2
Probability	57%	37%	6%
Chance if	69%	90%	99.6%

Number of tournament winners for ESP; 31 mbit

n	0	1	2
Probability	78%	21%	1.2%
Chance if	9%	24%	56%

Number of tournament winners for POR; 14 mbit

n	0	1
Probability	85%	15%
Chance if	7%	19%