PL: Arsenal host Burnley

Arsenal host Burnley and if they win the league title is 90% theirs. West Ham lost up in Newcastle and now all three remaining matches have to go their way in the relegation battle: Tottenham lose against Chelsea and Everton, while West Ham beat Leeds at home. That happens roughly in one of twelve simulations. Bournemouth, Brentford, Brighton, Everton, and Sunderland are fighting over the three tickets to Europe, which possible might become four if Arsenal win on Wednesday and finish 5th.

 

Important matches for title race
Arsenal vs Burnley (12.6%)	Home Win (85%)	Draw (10%)	Away Win (5%)
Man City	10%	40%	48%
Arsenal	90%	60%	52%

	Arsenal			Man City
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
85	47%	47%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-
84	47%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
83	71%	24%	79%	23%	23%	50%
82	93%	22%	77%	23%	< 1%	-
81	95.6%	2.2%	54%	46%	23%	7%
80	98.9%	3.3%	25%	76%	29%	4.4%
79	100%	1.1%	20%	81%	5%	1.2%
78	100%	< 1%	-	93%	12%	< 1%
77	100%	< 1%	-	100%	7%	< 1%
76	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is successful, if they finish with X points

Average Simulated Season

Probabilities

Pts

Team

Pts

GD

Relegated

Top 7

Top 6

Top 5

Top 4

Win League

ECL

EL

CL

79

Arsenal

83.5

+45

< 1%

100%

100%

100%

100%

85%

< 1%

< 1%

100%

77

Man City

80.4

+44

< 1%

100%

100%

100%

100%

15%

< 1%

< 1%

100%

68

Man United

69.2

+16

< 1%

100%

100%

100%

100%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

100%

62

Aston Villa

62.8

+5

< 1%

100%

100%

100%

65%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

100%

59

Liverpool

61.0

+11

< 1%

100%

100%

95.4%

35%

< 1%

< 1%

4.6%

95.4%

55

Bournemouth

57.5

+4

< 1%

96.4%

79%

4.6%

< 1%

< 1%

2.7%

73%

24%

53

Brighton

54.6

+9

< 1%

65%

17%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

22%

68%

4.1%

52

Brentford

52.8

+3

< 1%

10%

1.5%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

30%

12%

< 1%

49

Chelsea

52.4

+7

< 1%

20%

2.4%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

25%

28%

< 1%

51

Sunderland

52.2

-7

< 1%

8%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

15%

14%

< 1%

49

Fulham

50.6

-6

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

49

Everton

50.2

-2

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

49

Newcastle

50.2

-0

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

3.0%

< 1%

< 1%

47

Leeds

48.2

-4

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

45

Crystal Palace

45.9

-11

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

64%

< 1%

43

Forest

44.6

-3

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

38

Tottenham

40.4

-10

8%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

36

West Ham

37.6

-22

92%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

21

Burnley

22.9

-38

100%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

19

Wolves

20.1

-41

100%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

 

 

PL: The Hammers visit the Magpies

Important match when West Ham visit Newcastle today. If West Ham win, the relegation battle is a fifty-fifty race according to our simulations. If it's a draw, the chances are unchanged and if Newcastle win, Tottenham are 92% safe.

Brighton visit Leeds and they need to win to have a chance on the 6th place, which might mean CL next season. In the EL race, Brentford need to win against Crystal Palace to keep the hope up. 

Important matches for avoiding relegation
Newcastle vs West Ham (21.5%)	Home Win (58%)	Draw (21%)	Away Win (21%)
West Ham	8%	18%	49%
Tottenham	92%	82%	51%

	West Ham			Tottenham
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
44	< 1%	< 1%	-	9%	9%	100%
43	< 1%	< 1%	-	9%	< 1%	-
42	9%	9%	76%	24%	14%	100%
41	9%	< 1%	-	55%	32%	91%
40	24%	14%	39%	61%	5%	91%
39	56%	32%	19%	81%	21%	76%
38	61%	5%	< 1%	100%	19%	44%
37	82%	21%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-
36	100%	18%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-
35	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is successful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for CL race
Leeds vs Brighton (7.9%)	Home Win (43%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (33%)
Brighton	4.1%	6%	23%
Liverpool	95.4%	95.3%	87%
Bournemouth	24%	23%	14%

	Liverpool			Bournemouth			Brighton
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
62	59%	59%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
61	59%	< 1%	-	11%	11%	65%	< 1%	< 1%	-
60	80%	21%	89%	11%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
59	100%	20%	76%	27%	16%	21%	15%	15%	39%
58	100%	< 1%	-	56%	29%	21%	15%	< 1%	-
57	100%	< 1%	-	62%	6%	16%	33%	19%	11%
56	100%	< 1%	-	82%	20%	9%	63%	30%	9%
55	100%	< 1%	-	100%	18%	4.7%	68%	6%	3.8%
54	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	86%	18%	< 1%
53	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	14%	< 1%
52	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is successful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for EL race (EL or CL)
Brentford vs Crystal Palace (22.1%)	Home Win (54%)	Draw (23%)	Away Win (24%)
Brentford	42%	9%	1.7%
Brighton	72%	83%	85%
Fulham	< 1%	3.8%	4.1%
Chelsea	13%	22%	22%
Leeds vs Brighton (17%)	Home Win (43%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (33%)
Brighton	61%	81%	97.8%
Brentford	33%	22%	17%
Chelsea	21%	17%	11%
Everton vs Sunderland (7.5%)	Home Win (63%)	Draw (20%)	Away Win (17%)
Everton	14%	1.6%	< 1%
Sunderland	< 1%	< 1%	4.8%

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
79	Arsenal	83.5	+45	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	100%	85%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
77	Man City	80.4	+44	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	100%	15%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
65	Man United	68.1	+16	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
62	Aston Villa	62.8	+5	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	65%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
59	Liverpool	61.0	+11	< 1%	100%	99.67%	93%	35%	< 1%	< 1%	7%	93%
55	Bournemouth	57.5	+4	< 1%	91%	62%	4.7%	< 1%	< 1%	6%	72%	20%
53	Brighton	55.8	+10	< 1%	75%	32%	2.6%	< 1%	< 1%	14%	67%	11%
51	Brentford	53.6	+4	< 1%	17%	3.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	33%	25%	< 1%
49	Chelsea	52.4	+7	< 1%	11%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	22%	17%	< 1%
49	Everton	52.3	+1	< 1%	5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	15%	9%	< 1%
48	Fulham	51.1	-6	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	6%	2.0%	< 1%
48	Sunderland	50.0	-10	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.7%	< 1%	< 1%
46	Newcastle	49.1	-1	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%
44	Leeds	46.7	-5	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
44	Crystal Palace	45.8	-11	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	64%	< 1%
43	Forest	45.5	-2	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
38	Tottenham	40.4	-10	19%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
36	West Ham	38.4	-21	81%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
21	Burnley	22.9	-38	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
18	Wolves	20.4	-42	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

 

 

PL: Villa secure a place in Champions League

Villa secured a top-5 place and thereby a place in next season's CL.

Today, Chelsea can win the FA cup which would guarantee them a place in EL next year.  The final outcome also affects other teams. Bournemouth have 71% to reach EL (or CL) if Chelsea win, compared with 92% if City win. Brighton have 46% if Chelsea win, compared with 78% if City win. Brentford have 5% if Chelsea win compared with 25% if City win. Everton have 2.5% if Chelsea win compared with 15% if City win.

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
79	Arsenal	83.5	+45	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	100%	85%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
77	Man City	80.4	+44	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	100%	15%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
65	Man United	68.1	+16	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
62	Aston Villa	62.8	+6	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	65%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
59	Liverpool	61.0	+10	< 1%	100%	99.65%	93%	35%	< 1%	< 1%	7%	93%
55	Bournemouth	57.5	+4	< 1%	91%	62%	4.8%	< 1%	< 1%	12%	64%	20%
53	Brighton	55.8	+10	< 1%	75%	32%	2.6%	< 1%	< 1%	22%	56%	11%
51	Brentford	53.6	+4	< 1%	17%	3.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	30%	18%	< 1%
49	Chelsea	52.4	+7	< 1%	11%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	14%	45%	< 1%
49	Everton	52.3	+1	< 1%	5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	13%	7%	< 1%
48	Fulham	51.1	-6	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	5.0%	1.4%	< 1%
48	Sunderland	50.0	-10	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.1%	< 1%	< 1%
46	Newcastle	49.1	-1	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%
44	Leeds	46.7	-5	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
44	Crystal Palace	45.8	-11	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	64%	< 1%
43	Forest	45.5	-2	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
38	Tottenham	40.4	-10	19%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
36	West Ham	38.4	-21	81%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
21	Burnley	22.9	-38	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
18	Wolves	20.4	-42	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

 

PL: Villa vs Pool - who will clinch the CL ticket?

City put pressure on Arsenal with a 3-0 win giving them advantage with respect to gold difference. If they finish on same points, City are very likely the champions, Arsenal road to the title goes by staying ahead in points.

Tomorrow Aston Villa host Liverpool, where the winner secure a place in CL. This affect mostly other teams, like Bournemouth and Brighton though, as Premier League get an extra spot if Aston Villa win EL and don't finish top-four. This would affect also qualification to EL and Conference league for teams like  Brentford and Everton, as detailed in tables below.

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
79	Arsenal	83.5	+45	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	100%	85%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
77	Man City	80.4	+44	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	100%	15%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
65	Man United	68.1	+16	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
59	Liverpool	62.2	+13	< 1%	100%	99.85%	96.6%	69%	< 1%	< 1%	3.2%	96.7%
59	Aston Villa	61.3	+3	< 1%	100%	99.23%	90%	31%	< 1%	< 1%	3.1%	96.8%
55	Bournemouth	57.5	+4	< 1%	91%	63%	10%	< 1%	< 1%	9%	54%	34%
53	Brighton	55.8	+10	< 1%	75%	33%	3.7%	< 1%	< 1%	18%	55%	17%
51	Brentford	53.6	+4	< 1%	17%	3.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	31%	24%	1.3%
49	Chelsea	52.4	+7	< 1%	11%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	15%	48%	< 1%
49	Everton	52.3	+1	< 1%	5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	16%	9%	< 1%
48	Fulham	51.1	-6	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	6%	2.2%	< 1%
48	Sunderland	50.0	-10	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.6%	< 1%	< 1%
46	Newcastle	49.1	-1	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%
44	Leeds	46.7	-5	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
44	Crystal Palace	45.8	-11	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	64%	< 1%
43	Forest	45.5	-2	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
38	Tottenham	40.4	-10	19%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
36	West Ham	38.4	-21	81%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
21	Burnley	22.9	-38	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
18	Wolves	20.4	-42	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Titles

Team	League	FA Cup	League Cup	Europe
Arsenal	85%			61%
Man City	15%	65%	100%
Aston Villa				69%
Chelsea		35%
Crystal Palace				64%

Important matches for CL race
Aston Villa vs Liverpool (15%)	Home Win (43%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (33%)
Bournemouth	20%	41%	48%
Liverpool	93%	99.4%	100%
Aston Villa	100%	97.3%	92%
Brighton	11%	20%	24%
Brentford	< 1%	1.6%	2.6%

	Aston Villa			Liverpool			Bournemouth			Brighton			Brentford
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
65	8%	8%	100%	19%	19%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
64	8%	< 1%	-	19%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
63	22%	14%	100%	40%	21%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
62	54%	32%	100%	72%	32%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
61	59%	5%	97.1%	77%	5%	99.98%	11%	11%	81%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
60	80%	21%	96.5%	91%	14%	92%	11%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
59	100%	20%	88%	100%	9%	75%	27%	16%	46%	15%	15%	55%	< 1%	< 1%	-
58	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	56%	29%	40%	15%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
57	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	62%	6%	29%	33%	19%	21%	11%	11%	10%
56	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	82%	20%	16%	63%	29%	17%	11%	< 1%	-
55	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	18%	7%	69%	6%	7%	27%	16%	1.5%
54	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	86%	18%	< 1%	63%	36%	< 1%
53	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	14%	< 1%	68%	4.7%	< 1%
52	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	86%	18%	< 1%
51	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	14%	< 1%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is successful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for EL race (EL or CL)
Aston Villa vs Liverpool (4.4%)	Home Win (43%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (33%)
Brentford	18%	29%	31%
Brighton	67%	76%	78%
Bournemouth	85%	90%	92%
Everton	7%	11%	11%
Chelsea	46%	51%	52%

	Bournemouth			Brighton			Crystal Palace			Chelsea			Brentford			Everton			Fulham
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
61	11%	11%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
60	11%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
59	27%	16%	97.7%	15%	15%	98.5%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
58	56%	29%	97.3%	15%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
57	62%	6%	90%	33%	19%	90%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	11%	11%	73%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
56	82%	20%	84%	63%	29%	84%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	11%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
55	100%	18%	63%	69%	6%	76%	< 1%	< 1%	-	24%	24%	78%	27%	16%	40%	20%	20%	39%	< 1%	< 1%	-
54	100%	< 1%	-	86%	18%	52%	< 1%	< 1%	-	24%	< 1%	-	63%	36%	27%	20%	< 1%	-	19%	19%	11%
53	100%	< 1%	-	100%	14%	23%	< 1%	< 1%	-	47%	23%	45%	68%	4.7%	7%	42%	22%	5.0%	19%	< 1%	-
52	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	75%	28%	39%	86%	18%	2.6%	75%	33%	< 1%	40%	21%	< 1%
51	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	80%	5%	35%	100%	14%	< 1%	80%	4.8%	< 1%	68%	28%	< 1%
50	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	5%	5%	64%	93%	12%	35%	100%	< 1%	-	92%	13%	< 1%	74%	6%	< 1%
49	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	5%	< 1%	-	100%	7%	35%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	8%	< 1%	89%	16%	< 1%
48	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	16%	10%	64%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	11%	< 1%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is successful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for Europe race (ECL, EL or CL)
Aston Villa vs Liverpool (3.7%)	Home Win (43%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (33%)
Brentford	49%	60%	62%
Everton	20%	28%	29%
Brighton	88%	92%	94%
Chelsea	60%	66%	68%
Fulham	6%	10%	10%
Bournemouth	96.8%	98.1%	98.7%

	Bournemouth			Brighton			Crystal Palace			Chelsea			Brentford			Everton			Fulham			Sunderland			Newcastle
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
59	27%	16%	100%	15%	15%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
58	56%	29%	100%	15%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
57	62%	6%	99.2%	33%	19%	99.98%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	11%	11%	95.7%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
56	82%	20%	98.4%	63%	29%	98.4%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	11%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
55	100%	18%	89%	69%	6%	97.5%	< 1%	< 1%	-	24%	24%	97.4%	27%	16%	81%	20%	20%	75%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
54	100%	< 1%	-	86%	18%	85%	< 1%	< 1%	-	24%	< 1%	-	63%	36%	70%	20%	< 1%	-	19%	19%	41%	6%	6%	48%	< 1%	< 1%	-
53	100%	< 1%	-	100%	14%	60%	< 1%	< 1%	-	47%	23%	69%	68%	4.7%	39%	42%	22%	28%	19%	< 1%	-	6%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
52	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	75%	28%	56%	86%	18%	25%	75%	33%	11%	40%	21%	4.1%	17%	11%	7%	18%	18%	10%
51	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	80%	5%	39%	100%	14%	6%	80%	4.8%	1.4%	68%	28%	< 1%	45%	28%	< 1%	18%	< 1%	-
50	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	5%	5%	64%	93%	12%	35%	100%	< 1%	-	92%	13%	< 1%	74%	6%	< 1%	50%	4.8%	< 1%	38%	20%	< 1%
49	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	5%	< 1%	-	100%	7%	35%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	8%	< 1%	89%	16%	< 1%	73%	24%	< 1%	71%	33%	< 1%
48	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	16%	10%	64%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	11%	< 1%	100%	27%	< 1%	76%	5%	< 1%
47	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	41%	25%	64%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	91%	15%	< 1%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is successful, if they finish with X points


Most likely combo of teams in CL

46%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
30%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Bournemouth, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
15%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Brighton, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
2.4%	Arsenal, Bournemouth, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
2.2%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Bournemouth, Man City, Man United
1.3%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Brentford, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
1.1%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Brighton, Man City, Man United