Cape Verde scare Argentina with extra time drama

 

Quarter-finals		Semi-finals		Final		Champions
France (77%) Paraguay (23%)
		France (62%) Canada (14%) Paraguay (12%)
Canada (58%) Morocco (42%)
				Spain (41%) France (32%) Portugal (10%)
Spain (71%) Portugal (29%)
		Spain (59%) Portugal (19%) Belgium (13%)
Belgium (56%) United States (44%)
						Spain (27%) Argentina (23%) France (18%) England (8%)
Brazil (59%) Norway (41%)
		England (40%) Brazil (30%) Norway (18%)
England (69%) Mexico (31%)
				Argentina (42%) England (19%) Brazil (13%) Colombia (12%)
Argentina (90%)
		Argentina (63%) Colombia (23%) Switzerland (12%)
Colombia (60%) Switzerland (40%)

Croatia knocked out after late drama

 

Last 16		Quarter-finals		Semi-finals		Final		Champions
Paraguay (100%)
		France (77%) Paraguay (23%)
France (100%)
				France (62%) Canada (14%) Paraguay (12%)
Canada (100%)
		Canada (58%) Morocco (42%)
Morocco (100%)
						Spain (41%) France (32%) Portugal (10%)
Portugal (100%)
		Spain (71%) Portugal (29%)
Spain (100%)
				Spain (59%) Portugal (19%) Belgium (13%)
United States (100%)
		Belgium (56%) United States (44%)
Belgium (100%)
								Spain (27%) Argentina (21%) France (18%) England (9%)
Brazil (100%)
		Brazil (59%) Norway (41%)
Norway (100%)
				England (40%) Brazil (30%) Norway (18%)
Mexico (100%)
		England (69%) Mexico (31%)
England (100%)
						Argentina (38%) England (19%) Brazil (13%) Colombia (12%)
Argentina (95%)
		Argentina (82%) Australia (12%)
Australia (61%) Egypt (39%)
				Argentina (58%) Colombia (23%) Switzerland (14%)
Switzerland (100%)
		Colombia (55%) Switzerland (44%)
Colombia (92%)

 

England through after scare against DR Congo

 

 

Last 16		Quarter-finals		Semi-finals		Final		Champions
Paraguay (100%)
		France (77%) Paraguay (23%)
France (100%)
				France (62%) Canada (14%) Paraguay (12%)
Canada (100%)
		Canada (58%) Morocco (42%)
Morocco (100%)
						Spain (36%) France (34%) Portugal (7%)
Portugal (57%) Croatia (43%)
		Spain (62%) Portugal (20%) Croatia (13%)
Spain (84%)
				Spain (51%) Belgium (15%) Portugal (13%)
United States (100%)
		Belgium (56%) United States (44%)
Belgium (100%)
								Spain (24%) Argentina (22%) France (19%) England (9%)
Brazil (100%)
		Brazil (59%) Norway (41%)
Norway (100%)
				England (40%) Brazil (30%) Norway (18%)
Mexico (100%)
		England (69%) Mexico (31%)
England (100%)
						Argentina (39%) England (19%) Brazil (13%) Colombia (13%)
Argentina (95%)
		Argentina (82%) Australia (12%)
Australia (61%) Egypt (39%)
				Argentina (58%) Colombia (25%) Switzerland (10%)
Switzerland (67%) Algeria (33%)
		Colombia (60%) Switzerland (29%)
Colombia (92%)

 

France favorite of the seven teams through to R16 so far

Projected semifinals are currently: 

• France vs Spain
• England vs Argentina 

 

Last 16		Quarter-finals		Semi-finals		Final		Champions
Paraguay (100%)
		France (77%) Paraguay (23%)
France (100%)
				France (62%) Canada (14%) Paraguay (12%)
Canada (100%)
		Canada (58%) Morocco (42%)
Morocco (100%)
						Spain (36%) France (34%) Portugal (7%)
Portugal (57%) Croatia (43%)
		Spain (62%) Portugal (20%) Croatia (13%)
Spain (84%)
				Spain (51%) Portugal (13%) Senegal (9%)
United States (75%) Bosnia and Herzegovina (25%)
		United States (33%) Senegal (32%) Belgium (30%)
Senegal (51%) Belgium (49%)
								Spain (24%) Argentina (22%) France (19%) England (8%)
Brazil (100%)
		Brazil (59%) Norway (41%)
Norway (100%)
				England (34%) Brazil (32%) Norway (19%)
Mexico (100%)
		England (59%) Mexico (37%)
England (86%)
						Argentina (39%) England (17%) Brazil (14%) Colombia (13%)
Argentina (95%)
		Argentina (82%) Australia (12%)
Australia (61%) Egypt (39%)
				Argentina (58%) Colombia (25%) Switzerland (10%)
Switzerland (67%) Algeria (33%)
		Colombia (60%) Switzerland (29%)
Colombia (92%)

 

Giants out in penalty drama

 

 

Last 16		Quarter-finals		Semi-finals		Final		Champions
Paraguay (100%)
		France (67%) Paraguay (28%)
France (86%)
				France (53%) Canada (16%) Paraguay (15%)
Canada (100%)
		Canada (58%) Morocco (42%)
Morocco (100%)
						Spain (37%) France (29%) Portugal (7%)
Portugal (57%) Croatia (43%)
		Spain (62%) Portugal (20%) Croatia (13%)
Spain (84%)
				Spain (51%) Portugal (13%) Senegal (9%)
United States (75%) Bosnia and Herzegovina (25%)
		United States (33%) Senegal (32%) Belgium (30%)
Senegal (51%) Belgium (49%)
								Spain (25%) Argentina (22%) France (17%) England (7%)
Brazil (100%)
		Brazil (64%) Norway (31%)
Norway (76%) Ivory Coast (24%)
				Brazil (34%) England (32%) Norway (14%)
Ecuador (59%) Mexico (41%)
		England (55%) Ecuador (27%) Mexico (15%)
England (86%)
						Argentina (39%) England (16%) Brazil (15%) Colombia (13%)
Argentina (95%)
		Argentina (82%) Australia (12%)
Australia (61%) Egypt (39%)
				Argentina (58%) Colombia (25%) Switzerland (10%)
Switzerland (67%) Algeria (33%)
		Colombia (60%) Switzerland (29%)
Colombia (92%)

Canada through after later winner

Below shows the winning probability changing over time. And below is the bracket with probabilities.

 

Last 16		Quarter-finals		Semi-finals		Final		Champions
Germany (61%) Paraguay (39%)
		France (62%) Germany (23%) Paraguay (11%)
France (86%)
				France (46%) Netherlands (18%) Germany (13%)
Canada (100%)
		Canada (46%) Netherlands (40%) Morocco (14%)
Netherlands (67%) Morocco (33%)
						Spain (36%) France (25%) Netherlands (7%) Portugal (7%)
Portugal (57%) Croatia (43%)
		Spain (62%) Portugal (20%) Croatia (13%)
Spain (84%)
				Spain (51%) Portugal (13%) Senegal (9%)
United States (75%) Bosnia and Herzegovina (25%)
		United States (33%) Senegal (32%) Belgium (30%)
Senegal (51%) Belgium (49%)
								Spain (24%) Argentina (23%) France (14%) England (8%)
Brazil (60%) Japan (40%)
		Brazil (38%) Norway (34%) Japan (22%)
Norway (76%) Ivory Coast (24%)
				England (34%) Brazil (20%) Norway (15%) Ecuador (13%)
Ecuador (59%) Mexico (41%)
		England (55%) Ecuador (27%) Mexico (15%)
England (86%)
						Argentina (39%) England (16%) Colombia (13%) Brazil (9%)
Argentina (95%)
		Argentina (82%) Australia (12%)
Australia (61%) Egypt (39%)
				Argentina (58%) Colombia (25%) Switzerland (10%)
Switzerland (67%) Algeria (33%)
		Colombia (60%) Switzerland (29%)
Colombia (92%)

Predictions of Last 32

Last 16		Quarter-finals		Semi-finals		Final		Champions
Germany (61%) Paraguay (39%)
		France (62%) Germany (23%) Paraguay (11%)
France (86%)
				France (46%) Netherlands (20%) Germany (13%)
Canada (78%) South Africa (22%)
		Netherlands (44%) Canada (36%) Morocco (17%)
Netherlands (67%) Morocco (33%)
						Spain (36%) France (25%) Netherlands (8%) Portugal (7%)
Portugal (57%) Croatia (43%)
		Spain (62%) Portugal (20%) Croatia (13%)
Spain (84%)
				Spain (51%) Portugal (13%) Senegal (9%)
United States (75%) Bosnia and Herzegovina (25%)
		United States (33%) Senegal (32%) Belgium (30%)
Senegal (51%) Belgium (49%)
								Spain (24%) Argentina (23%) France (14%) England (8%)
Brazil (60%) Japan (40%)
		Brazil (38%) Norway (34%) Japan (22%)
Norway (76%) Ivory Coast (24%)
				England (34%) Brazil (20%) Norway (15%) Ecuador (13%)
Ecuador (59%) Mexico (41%)
		England (55%) Ecuador (27%) Mexico (15%)
England (86%)
						Argentina (39%) England (16%) Colombia (13%) Brazil (9%)
Argentina (95%)
		Argentina (82%) Australia (12%)
Australia (61%) Egypt (39%)
				Argentina (58%) Colombia (25%) Switzerland (10%)
Switzerland (67%) Algeria (33%)
		Colombia (60%) Switzerland (29%)
Colombia (92%)

Team	Round of 16	Quarterfinals	Semifinals	Final	Champion
Spain	84%	62%	51%	36%	24%
Argentina	95%	82%	58%	39%	23%
France	86%	62%	46%	25%	14%
England	86%	55%	34%	16%	8%
Colombia	92%	60%	25%	13%	5%
Brazil	60%	38%	20%	9%	3.8%
Netherlands	67%	44%	20%	8%	3.5%
Portugal	57%	20%	13%	7%	3.1%
Norway	76%	34%	15%	6%	2.0%
Ecuador	59%	27%	14%	5%	1.9%
Germany	61%	23%	13%	4.9%	1.9%
Croatia	43%	13%	8%	3.5%	1.4%
Switzerland	67%	29%	10%	4.0%	1.3%
Senegal	51%	32%	9%	3.5%	1.2%
Japan	40%	22%	10%	3.4%	1.2%
Belgium	49%	30%	8%	3.0%	0.98%
United States	75%	33%	8%	2.5%	0.70%
Canada	78%	36%	10%	2.3%	0.57%
Mexico	41%	15%	6%	1.9%	0.58%
Paraguay	39%	11%	5%	1.5%	0.42%
Morocco	33%	17%	5%	1.4%	0.39%
Australia	61%	12%	4.0%	1.2%	0.29%
Austria	16%	5%	2.6%	0.86%	0.25%
Algeria	33%	9%	1.9%	0.50%	< 0.1%
Sweden	14%	4.2%	1.4%	0.28%	< 0.1%
Egypt	39%	5%	1.3%	0.28%	< 0.1%
Bosnia and Herzegovina	25%	4.9%	0.44%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
Ivory Coast	24%	4.8%	0.95%	0.15%	< 0.1%
DR Congo	14%	3.1%	0.65%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
South Africa	22%	2.7%	0.24%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
Cape Verde	5%	1.4%	0.20%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
Ghana	8%	1.4%	0.11%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%