PL: Title race is on

Man City win the league in 13% of the simulations and on average finish 6.7 points behind Arsenal, mostly due to tougher schedule but the match at home against Arsenal will be massively important. City play Leeds away next, while Arsenal play Chelsea at home. In the relegation race West Ham go to Anfield while Forest go down to the coast at Brighton. Team 17 finished with 38-41 points in most of the simulations.

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
61	Arsenal	82.1	+47	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	>99.99%	86%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
56	Man City	75.4	+38	< 1%	>99.99%	>99.99%	99.92%	99.45%	13%	< 1%	< 1%	99.93%
51	Aston Villa	70.2	+16	< 1%	99.90%	99.44%	96.9%	89%	< 1%	< 1%	1.7%	98.2%
45	Liverpool	64.7	+14	< 1%	97.0%	92%	77%	52%	< 1%	2.0%	18%	79%
45	Man United	62.6	+12	< 1%	91%	81%	58%	31%	< 1%	6%	31%	58%
45	Chelsea	61.5	+19	< 1%	90%	79%	52%	25%	< 1%	5%	36%	55%
40	Brentford	55.6	+4	< 1%	41%	19%	7%	1.9%	< 1%	19%	33%	7%
36	Newcastle	53.3	+2	< 1%	22%	9%	2.6%	< 1%	< 1%	15%	23%	6%
38	Bournemouth	53.3	-2	< 1%	20%	8%	2.2%	< 1%	< 1%	15%	16%	2.2%
37	Everton	52.5	-3	< 1%	16%	6%	2.0%	< 1%	< 1%	13%	12%	2.0%
37	Fulham	52.1	-3	< 1%	13%	4.4%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%	12%	16%	1.2%
34	Brighton	49.8	+3	< 1%	7%	2.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	7%	6%	< 1%
35	Crystal Palace	47.5	-9	< 1%	1.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.8%	33%	< 1%
36	Sunderland	46.3	-13	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.4%	1.5%	< 1%
31	Leeds	45.8	-10	2.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.3%	3.5%	< 1%
29	Tottenham	44.1	-4	3.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.9%
27	Forest	40.3	-17	20%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	8%
25	West Ham	35.7	-25	75%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.1%	< 1%
19	Burnley	30.1	-30	96.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
10	Wolves	19.9	-39	>99.99%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Titles

Team	League	FA Cup	League Cup	Europe
Arsenal	86%	44%	61%	29%
Man City	13%	11%	39%	10%
Aston Villa	< 1%			41%
Liverpool	< 1%	13%		10%
Man United	< 1%
Chelsea	< 1%	13%		6%
Brentford		3.1%
Newcastle		6%		3.2%
Fulham		5%
Crystal Palace				32%
Sunderland		< 1%
Leeds		2.9%
Tottenham				1.9%
Forest				8%
West Ham		1.1%
Wolves		< 1%

Important matches for title race
Leeds vs Man City (2.6%)	Home Win (28%)	Draw (23%)	Away Win (48%)
Man City	7%	10%	17%
Arsenal	92%	89%	82%

Important matches for CL race
Everton vs Man United (4.4%)	Home Win (44%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (32%)
Man United	49%	58%	71%
Everton	3.5%	1.2%	< 1%
Chelsea	58%	55%	50%
Man United vs Crystal Palace (3.7%)	Home Win (57%)	Draw (22%)	Away Win (21%)
Man United	66%	52%	44%
Chelsea	51%	57%	60%
Liverpool	78%	81%	82%

Important matches for avoiding relegation
Liverpool vs West Ham (3%)	Home Win (72%)	Draw (16%)	Away Win (12%)
West Ham	21%	28%	43%
Forest	82%	78%	70%
Tottenham	96.7%	95.8%	93%
Brighton vs Forest (2.8%)	Home Win (54%)	Draw (22%)	Away Win (23%)
Forest	75%	81%	90%
West Ham	28%	24%	18%
Burnley	3.8%	3.0%	2.0%
Brighton	99.97%	99.82%	99.5%

Europa League and Conference League

 

Europa League

Pos	Pts	Team	Pts	GD	R16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
1	21	Lyon	21	18-5	100%	67%	37%	20%	8%
2	21	Aston Villa	21	14-6	100%	88%	71%	57%	41%
3	19	Midtjylland	19	18-8	100%	51%	23%	7%	2.4%
4	17	Betis	17	13-7	100%	58%	30%	11%	4.4%
5	17	Porto	17	13-7	100%	74%	46%	21%	10%
6	17	Braga	17	11-5	100%	61%	29%	9%	3.2%
7	17	Freiburg	17	10-4	100%	60%	19%	9%	3.0%
8	16	Roma	16	13-6	100%	76%	36%	22%	11%
9	16	Genk	16	11-7	95%	23%	4.3%	1.4%	< 1%
10	15	Bologna	15	14-7	92%	39%	13%	6%	2.1%
11	15	Stuttgart	15	15-9	99.48%	51%	24%	10%	4.1%
12	15	Ferencvaros	15	12-11	45%	7%	1.9%	< 1%	< 1%
13	14	Forest	14	15-7	99.02%	63%	37%	17%	8%
14	14	Viktoria Plzen	14	8-3	65%	18%	6%	1.0%	< 1%
15	14	Crvena Zvezda	14	7-6	68%	10%	2.5%	< 1%	< 1%
16	13	Dinamo Zagreb	13	15-13	5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
17	12	PAOK	12	17-14	14%	2.8%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%
18	12	Lille	12	12-9	32%	9%	4.2%	1.8%	< 1%
19	12	Fenerbahce	12	10-7	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
20	12	Panathinaikos	12	11-9	35%	9%	2.4%	< 1%	< 1%
21	11	Celtic	11	13-15	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
22	10	Celta	10	12-14	86%	23%	11%	5%	1.9%
23	10	Razgrad	10	12-15	55%	7%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%
24	9	Brann	9	9-11	8%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Last 16		Quarter-finals		Semi-finals		Final		Champions
Razgrad (55%) Ferencvaros (45%)
		Porto (45%) Braga (41%)
Porto (50%) Braga (50%)
				Porto (31%) Braga (21%) Betis (20%) Midtjylland (16%)
Viktoria Plzen (65%) Panathinaikos (35%)
		Betis (38%) Midtjylland (35%) Viktoria Plzen (18%)
Betis (50%) Midtjylland (50%)
						Aston Villa (29%) Porto (14%) Roma (13%) Lyon (10%)
Genk (95%)
		Roma (41%) Freiburg (35%) Genk (23%)
Freiburg (50%) Roma (50%)
				Aston Villa (35%) Roma (20%) Lyon (18%) Celta (11%)
Celta (86%)
		Aston Villa (43%) Lyon (31%) Celta (23%)
Aston Villa (50%) Lyon (50%)
								Aston Villa (41%) Roma (11%) Porto (10%) Forest (8%)
Stuttgart (99%)
		Stuttgart (51%) Porto (29%) Braga (20%)
Braga (50%) Porto (50%)
				Forest (37%) Stuttgart (24%) Porto (15%) Betis (10%)
Forest (99%)
		Forest (63%) Betis (20%) Midtjylland (16%)
Midtjylland (50%) Betis (50%)
						Aston Villa (28%) Forest (17%) Lyon (10%) Stuttgart (10%)
Bologna (92%)
		Bologna (39%) Roma (34%) Freiburg (26%)
Roma (50%) Freiburg (50%)
				Aston Villa (36%) Lyon (20%) Roma (16%) Bologna (13%)
Crvena Zvezda (68%) Lille (32%)
		Aston Villa (45%) Lyon (36%) Crvena Zvezda (10%)
Lyon (50%) Aston Villa (50%)

 

Conference League

Pos	Pts	Team	Pts	GD	R16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
1	16	Strasbourg	16	11-5	100%	74%	46%	33%	19%
2	14	Rakow	14	9-2	100%	52%	22%	11%	3.6%
3	13	AEK	13	14-7	100%	77%	49%	22%	10%
4	13	Sparta Praha	13	10-3	100%	70%	38%	13%	5%
5	13	Rayo Vallecano	13	13-7	100%	72%	40%	16%	7%
6	13	Shakhtar	13	10-5	100%	63%	29%	9%	3.3%
7	13	Mainz	13	7-3	100%	56%	30%	19%	9%
8	12	Larnaca	12	7-1	100%	40%	14%	6%	1.7%
9	11	Lausanne	11	6-3	70%	20%	5%	1.6%	< 1%
10	10	Crystal Palace	10	11-6	96.0%	77%	55%	45%	32%
11	10	Lech	10	12-8	98.0%	37%	14%	2.6%	< 1%
12	10	Samsunspor	10	10-6	93%	26%	8%	2.1%	< 1%
13	10	Celje	10	8-7	93%	23%	8%	2.1%	< 1%
14	10	Alkmaar	10	7-7	67%	26%	13%	2.8%	1.2%
15	9	Fiorentina	9	8-5	99.26%	52%	19%	12%	6%
16	9	Rijeka	9	5-2	73%	13%	4.1%	1.1%	< 1%
17	9	Jagiellonia	9	5-4	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
18	8	Omonia	8	5-4	27%	8%	3.3%	1.3%	< 1%
19	8	Noah	8	6-7	33%	3.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
20	8	Drita	8	4-8	7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
21	7	Kuopio	7	6-5	2.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
22	7	Shkendija	7	4-5	7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
23	7	Zrinjski Mostar	7	8-10	4.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
24	7	Sigma Olomouc	7	7-9	30%	6%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%

Last 16		Quarter-finals		Semi-finals		Final		Champions
Lech (98%)
		Lech (37%) Rayo Vallecano (34%) Shakhtar (29%)
Rayo Vallecano (50%) Shakhtar (50%)
				AEK (23%) Rayo Vallecano (18%) Sparta Praha (18%) Lech (14%)
Alkmaar (67%) Noah (33%)
		AEK (37%) Sparta Praha (33%) Alkmaar (26%)
AEK (50%) Sparta Praha (50%)
						Crystal Palace (45%) Fiorentina (12%) Strasbourg (10%)
Crystal Palace (96%)
		Crystal Palace (77%) Mainz (15%)
Mainz (50%) Larnaca (50%)
				Crystal Palace (55%) Fiorentina (19%) Strasbourg (13%)
Fiorentina (99%)
		Fiorentina (52%) Strasbourg (30%) Rakow (17%)
Strasbourg (50%) Rakow (50%)
								Crystal Palace (32%) Strasbourg (19%) AEK (10%) Mainz (9%)
Samsunspor (93%)
		Rayo Vallecano (39%) Shakhtar (35%) Samsunspor (26%)
Shakhtar (50%) Rayo Vallecano (50%)
				AEK (26%) Rayo Vallecano (22%) Sparta Praha (20%) Shakhtar (16%)
Celje (93%)
		AEK (40%) Sparta Praha (36%) Celje (23%)
Sparta Praha (50%) AEK (50%)
						Strasbourg (24%) Mainz (14%) AEK (14%) Rayo Vallecano (11%)
Lausanne (70%) Sigma Olomouc (30%)
		Mainz (41%) Larnaca (33%) Lausanne (20%)
Larnaca (50%) Mainz (50%)
				Strasbourg (33%) Mainz (23%) Rakow (18%) Larnaca (12%)
Rijeka (73%) Omonia (27%)
		Strasbourg (44%) Rakow (35%) Rijeka (13%)
Rakow (50%) Strasbourg (50%)

Which countries get extra CL spots

		Score
Country	Probability	Average	Min	Max
ENG	99.92%	20.99	14.89	25.72
GER	50%	15.88	11.14	22.21
POR	19%	14.7	11.3	22.6
POL	16%	14.91	12.5	21.75
ITA	8%	14.08	10.14	21.79
ESP	6%	13.83	9.38	20.38
GRE	< 1%	11.45	9.4	19.4
CYP	< 1%	10.8	9.63	16.38
FRA	< 1%	11.2	8.69	15.94
CZE	< 1%	9.84	7.7	16.3

Number of semifinalists from GER; 250 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4
Probability	18%	41%	30%	9%	1.2%
Chance if	9%	37%	74%	95%	99.6%

Number of semifinalists from POR; 202 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	30%	50%	18%	1.9%
Chance if	1.5%	13%	56%	95%

Number of semifinalists from POL; 197 mbit

n	0	1	2
Probability	67%	30%	3.1%
Chance if	3.4%	38%	88%

Number of quarterfinalists from POR; 189 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	3.2%	27%	47%	23%
Chance if	< 1%	< 1%	14%	52%

Number of quarterfinalists from GER; 182 mbit

n	1	2	3	4	5
Probability	8%	30%	40%	20%	2.4%
Chance if	6%	27%	57%	81%	93%

Number of finalists from GER; 155 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	44%	42%	13%	1.5%
Chance if	27%	59%	89%	99.1%

Number of quarterfinalists from POL; 153 mbit

n	0	1	2
Probability	30%	51%	19%
Chance if	< 1%	14%	48%

Number of quarterfinalists from ITA; 123 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4
Probability	1.6%	28%	45%	22%	3.9%
Chance if	< 1%	< 1%	3.0%	21%	58%

Number of semifinalists from ESP; 119 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4
Probability	18%	38%	31%	12%	2.1%
Chance if	< 1%	< 1%	5%	26%	67%

Number of semifinalists from ITA; 108 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	38%	45%	15%	1.8%
Chance if	< 1%	6%	28%	72%

 

CL: Italian disappointment continues

The Italian disappointment continues. Inter lost 3-1 against Bodee Glimt and their chances crashed from 84% to 45%. It remains one of the most open ties remaining together with Atletico vs Brugge where Atletico wins in 75% of the simulations.

Champions League

Pos	Pts	Team	Pts	GD	R16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
1	24	Arsenal	24	23-4	100%	85%	62%	46%	29%
2	21	Bayern	21	22-8	100%	76%	48%	30%	15%
3	18	Liverpool	18	20-8	100%	77%	42%	19%	9%
4	17	Tottenham	17	17-7	100%	59%	21%	6%	1.9%
5	16	Barcelona	16	22-14	100%	54%	33%	14%	7%
6	16	Chelsea	16	17-10	100%	53%	31%	13%	6%
7	16	Sporting	16	17-11	100%	51%	15%	6%	2.3%
8	16	Man City	16	15-9	100%	68%	32%	19%	10%
9	15	Real Madrid	15	21-12	87%	43%	16%	8%	3.4%
10	15	Inter	15	15-7	45%	23%	10%	5%	2.4%
11	14	Paris SG	14	21-11	95.7%	50%	32%	15%	7%
12	14	Newcastle	14	17-7	>99.99%	42%	22%	8%	3.2%
13	13	Juventus	13	14-10	15%	6%	1.9%	< 1%	< 1%
14	13	Atletico	13	17-15	75%	32%	13%	4.0%	1.5%
15	13	Atalanta	13	10-10	16%	2.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
16	12	Leverkusen	12	13-14	95.8%	18%	7%	2.4%	< 1%
17	11	Dortmund	11	19-17	84%	18%	7%	2.6%	< 1%
18	11	Olympiakos	11	10-14	4.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
19	10	Brugge	10	15-17	25%	6%	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%
20	10	Galatasaray	10	9-11	85%	19%	3.5%	< 1%	< 1%
21	10	Monaco	10	8-14	4.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
22	10	Karabakh Agdam	10	13-21	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
23	9	Bodoe Glimt	9	14-15	55%	10%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%
24	9	Benfica	9	10-12	13%	4.6%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%

Last 16		Quarter-finals		Semi-finals		Final		Champions
Paris SG (96%)
		Paris SG (50%) Barcelona (25%) Chelsea (24%)
Chelsea (50%) Barcelona (50%)
				Paris SG (32%) Liverpool (22%) Barcelona (15%) Chelsea (14%)
Galatasaray (85%)
		Liverpool (41%) Tottenham (33%) Galatasaray (19%)
Liverpool (50%) Tottenham (50%)
						Arsenal (22%) Paris SG (15%) Bayern (14%) Liverpool (10%) Man City (9%)
Real Madrid (87%)
		Real Madrid (43%) Man City (31%) Sporting (22%)
Sporting (50%) Man City (50%)
				Arsenal (31%) Bayern (23%) Real Madrid (16%) Man City (15%)
Dortmund (84%)
		Arsenal (42%) Bayern (37%) Dortmund (18%)
Bayern (50%) Arsenal (50%)
								Arsenal (29%) Bayern (15%) Man City (10%) Liverpool (9%)
Newcastle (100%)
		Newcastle (42%) Barcelona (29%) Chelsea (28%)
Barcelona (50%) Chelsea (50%)
				Newcastle (22%) Liverpool (20%) Barcelona (17%) Chelsea (16%) Atletico (13%)
Atletico (75%) Brugge (25%)
		Liverpool (36%) Atletico (32%) Tottenham (26%)
Tottenham (50%) Liverpool (50%)
						Arsenal (24%) Bayern (16%) Man City (11%) Liverpool (9%)
Bodoe Glimt (55%) Inter (45%)
		Man City (37%) Sporting (29%) Inter (23%)
Man City (50%) Sporting (50%)
				Arsenal (32%) Bayern (25%) Man City (17%) Inter (10%)
Leverkusen (96%)
		Arsenal (43%) Bayern (39%) Leverkusen (18%)
Arsenal (50%) Bayern (50%)

Which countries get extra CL spots

		Score
Country	Probability	Average	Min	Max
ENG	99.85%	20.71	14.67	25.83
GER	43%	15.62	10.57	21.79
POL	22%	14.97	12	22.5
POR	22%	14.8	11.3	22.5
ITA	6%	13.57	9.57	22.79
ESP	6%	13.6	9.25	19.94
GRE	< 1%	11.97	9.2	19.8
CYP	< 1%	11.47	9.63	16.88
FRA	< 1%	11.6	8.69	16.19
CZE	< 1%	9.77	7.3	16
TUR	< 1%	9.29	6.6	16.3

Number of semifinalists from GER; 234 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4
Probability	18%	42%	30%	9%	1.1%
Chance if	7%	30%	66%	91%	99.0%

Number of semifinalists from POR; 210 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	29%	49%	20%	2.2%
Chance if	2.1%	16%	59%	94%

Number of quarterfinalists from POR; 200 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	2.9%	25%	46%	25%
Chance if	< 1%	< 1%	16%	56%

Number of quarterfinalists from POL; 187 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	28%	53%	19%	< 1%
Chance if	< 1%	20%	60%	92%

Number of quarterfinalists from GER; 186 mbit

n	1	2	3	4	5
Probability	9%	32%	40%	18%	2.0%
Chance if	4.0%	21%	50%	78%	92%

Number of semifinalists from POL; 168 mbit

n	0	1	2
Probability	68%	29%	2.7%
Chance if	9%	47%	92%

Number of finalists from GER; 143 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	44%	42%	13%	1.4%
Chance if	22%	51%	82%	97%

Number of finalists from POR; 110 mbit

n	0	1	2
Probability	65%	31%	3.6%
Chance if	11%	37%	83%

Number of quarterfinalists from ITA; 107 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4
Probability	2.6%	36%	42%	17%	2.7%
Chance if	< 1%	< 1%	2.6%	20%	57%

Number of semifinalists from ESP; 105 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4
Probability	17%	38%	31%	12%	1.9%
Chance if	< 1%	< 1%	4.5%	24%	61%