Thursday, May 21, 2026

PL: Aston Villa Europa League Champions potentially giving PL and extra spot in CL

Aston Villa won EL and if they fail to finish top-4 i PL, it means that PL will be allocated an extra CL spot. 

Villa finish 5th if City beat them and Liverpool beat Brentford. The we have the following scenarios: Brighton take the 6th CL spot if they beat Man United and Bournemouth lose against Forest; otherwise Bournemouth take it. Sunderland take the 2nd EL spot if they beat Chelsea; otherwise Chelsea take it. Chelsea are virtuall guaranteed at least Conference League, and Brentford and possibly Newcastle have the chance to snap the Conference League spot, if Sunderland fail to beat Chelsea.

If Villa instead finish 4th, we have the following scenarios. CL is done and taken by the top-5 and Bournemouth will play EL (unless Liverpool are thrashed by Brentford). Brighton take the second EL spot if they win against Man United. If they draw, Chelsea and Brentford, and even Sunderland have chance to take the EL spot.


Most likely combo of teams in CL

65%Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
28%Arsenal, Aston Villa, Bournemouth, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
7%Arsenal, Aston Villa, Brighton, Liverpool, Man City, Man United

 



Average Simulated
Season		Probabilities
PtsTeamPtsGDRelegatedTop 7Top 6Top 5Top 4Win LeagueECLELCL
82Arsenal83.9+44< 1%100%100%100%100%100%< 1%< 1%100%
78Man City80.0+44< 1%100%100%100%100%< 1%< 1%< 1%100%
68Man United69.2+16< 1%100%100%100%100%< 1%< 1%< 1%100%
62Aston Villa62.8+5< 1%100%100%100%65%< 1%< 1%< 1%100%
59Liverpool61.0+11< 1%100%100%99.91%35%< 1%< 1%< 1%99.91%
56Bournemouth57.2+4< 1%100%80%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%72%28%
53Brighton54.6+9< 1%59%20%< 1%< 1%< 1%20%65%7%
52Chelsea53.5+7< 1%26%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%34%40%< 1%
52Brentford52.8+3< 1%6%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%30%6%< 1%
51Sunderland52.2-7< 1%8%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%12%17%< 1%
49Fulham50.6-6< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
49Everton50.2-2< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
49Newcastle50.2-0< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%2.9%< 1%< 1%
47Leeds48.2-4< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
45Crystal Palace45.9-11< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%64%< 1%
43Forest44.6-3< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
38Tottenham39.5-1015%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
36West Ham37.6-2285%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
21Burnley22.6-37100%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
19Wolves20.1-41100%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%

 

Important matches for CL race
Liverpool vs Brentford (32.4%)Home Win (59%)Draw (21%)Away Win (20%)
Bournemouth48%< 1%< 1%
Brighton12%< 1%< 1%
Man City vs Aston Villa (31.2%)Home Win (60%)Draw (21%)Away Win (19%)
Bournemouth47%< 1%< 1%
Brighton12%< 1%< 1%
Brighton vs Man United (11.3%)Home Win (44%)Draw (24%)Away Win (32%)
Brighton16%< 1%< 1%
Bournemouth19%35%35%
Forest vs Bournemouth (11.2%)Home Win (46%)Draw (24%)Away Win (30%)
Brighton16%< 1%< 1%
Bournemouth20%35%35%



BournemouthBrighton
pointsQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChance
5930%30%35%< 1%< 1%-
5830%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-
5754%24%35%< 1%< 1%-
56100%46%20%44%44%16%
55100%< 1%-44%< 1%-
54100%< 1%-68%24%< 1%
53100%< 1%-100%32%< 1%
52100%< 1%-100%< 1%-
Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is successful, if they finish with X points



Important matches for EL race (EL or CL)
Sunderland vs Chelsea (75.5%)Home Win (33%)Draw (24%)Away Win (42%)
Chelsea< 1%42%71%
Sunderland49%< 1%< 1%
Brentford11%11%< 1%
Brighton vs Man United (47.1%)Home Win (44%)Draw (24%)Away Win (32%)
Brighton100%61%41%
Chelsea23%51%56%
Brentford< 1%12%12%
Sunderland12%12%27%
Liverpool vs Brentford (38.1%)Home Win (59%)Draw (21%)Away Win (20%)
Brentford< 1%< 1%32%
Brighton85%62%44%
Sunderland24%11%< 1%
Chelsea51%27%24%
Man City vs Aston Villa (10.6%)Home Win (60%)Draw (21%)Away Win (19%)
Brighton81%59%59%
Chelsea50%26%26%
Sunderland22%8%9%



BrightonCrystal PalaceChelseaSunderlandBrentford
pointsQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChance
5644%44%100%< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-
5544%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-42%42%71%< 1%< 1%-20%20%32%
5468%24%61%< 1%< 1%-42%< 1%-33%33%49%20%< 1%-
53100%32%41%< 1%< 1%-67%24%42%33%< 1%-41%21%< 1%
52100%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-100%33%< 1%58%24%< 1%100%59%< 1%
51100%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-100%< 1%-100%42%< 1%100%< 1%-
50100%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-100%< 1%-100%< 1%-100%< 1%-
Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is successful, if they finish with X points



Important matches for Europe race (ECL, EL or CL)
Sunderland vs Chelsea (110.4%)Home Win (33%)Draw (24%)Away Win (42%)
Sunderland86%< 1%< 1%
Chelsea35%83%99.96%
Liverpool vs Brentford (62%)Home Win (59%)Draw (21%)Away Win (20%)
Brentford34%< 1%81%
Brighton100%99.6%62%
Chelsea86%67%46%
Sunderland33%33%11%
Newcastle5.0%< 1%< 1%
Man City vs Aston Villa (15.1%)Home Win (60%)Draw (21%)Away Win (19%)
Brentford50%16%16%
Chelsea82%62%62%
Newcastle4.9%< 1%< 1%
Brighton vs Man United (8.8%)Home Win (44%)Draw (24%)Away Win (32%)
Brighton100%92%82%
Brentford32%41%41%
Fulham vs Newcastle (7.5%)Home Win (46%)Draw (24%)Away Win (30%)
Newcastle< 1%< 1%10%
Brentford39%40%30%



BrightonChelseaCrystal PalaceBrentfordSunderlandNewcastle
pointsQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChance
5644%44%100%< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-
5544%< 1%-42%42%99.96%< 1%< 1%-20%20%81%< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-
5468%24%92%42%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-20%< 1%-33%33%86%< 1%< 1%-
53100%32%82%67%24%83%< 1%< 1%-41%21%< 1%33%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-
52100%< 1%-100%33%35%< 1%< 1%-100%59%34%58%24%< 1%30%30%10%
51100%< 1%-100%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-100%< 1%-100%42%< 1%30%< 1%-
50100%< 1%-100%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-100%< 1%-100%< 1%-54%24%< 1%
49100%< 1%-100%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-100%< 1%-100%< 1%-100%46%< 1%
48100%< 1%-100%< 1%-23%23%64%100%< 1%-100%< 1%-100%< 1%-
Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is successful, if they finish with X points



Important matches for avoiding relegation
Tottenham vs Everton (55.3%)Home Win (43%)Draw (24%)Away Win (33%)
West Ham< 1%< 1%45%
Tottenham100%100%55%
West Ham vs Leeds (38.6%)Home Win (45%)Draw (24%)Away Win (31%)
West Ham33%< 1%< 1%
Tottenham67%100%100%



West HamTottenham
pointsQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChance
41< 1%< 1%-43%43%100%
40< 1%< 1%-43%< 1%-
3945%45%33%67%24%100%
3845%< 1%-100%33%55%
3769%24%< 1%100%< 1%-
36100%31%< 1%100%< 1%-
35100%< 1%-100%< 1%-
Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is successful, if they finish with X points



 

 

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Wednesday, May 20, 2026

PL: Arsenal Champions

Bournemouth and City drew 1-1 which means Arsenal are champions with one match to go. It also means that Bournemouth will bring European football to Vitaly stadium next season; remain to be decided if it'll be Champions or Europa League.

West Ham need to beat Leeds at home and hope that Everton beat Tottenham. That scenario happens in 15% of our simulations.

Five teams (or technically six including Liverpool) fight over the remaining tickets to European football. Much depends on the outcome of the EL final, but we know that Brighton can secure EL with a win against Man U, and secure Conference League if Liverpool beat Brentford; Sunderland need to beat Chelsea to have a chance.




Average Simulated
Season		Probabilities
PtsTeamPtsGDRelegatedTop 7Top 6Top 5Top 4Win LeagueECLELCL
82Arsenal83.9+44< 1%100%100%100%100%100%< 1%< 1%100%
78Man City80.0+44< 1%100%100%100%100%< 1%< 1%< 1%100%
68Man United69.2+16< 1%100%100%100%100%< 1%< 1%< 1%100%
62Aston Villa62.8+5< 1%100%100%100%65%< 1%< 1%< 1%100%
59Liverpool61.0+11< 1%100%100%99.91%35%< 1%< 1%< 1%99.91%
56Bournemouth57.2+4< 1%100%80%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%81%19%
53Brighton54.6+9< 1%59%20%< 1%< 1%< 1%25%63%4.9%
52Chelsea53.5+7< 1%26%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%34%36%< 1%
52Brentford52.8+3< 1%6%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%24%6%< 1%
51Sunderland52.2-7< 1%8%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%15%14%< 1%
49Fulham50.6-6< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
49Everton50.2-2< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
49Newcastle50.2-0< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%2.0%< 1%< 1%
47Leeds48.2-4< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
45Crystal Palace45.9-11< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%64%< 1%
43Forest44.6-3< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
38Tottenham39.5-1015%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
36West Ham37.6-2285%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
21Burnley22.6-37100%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
19Wolves20.1-41100%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%

Most likely combo of teams in CL
76%Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
19%Arsenal, Aston Villa, Bournemouth, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
4.9%Arsenal, Aston Villa, Brighton, Liverpool, Man City, Man United

 

 

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Tuesday, May 19, 2026

PL: Must-win match for City

Must win match for Man City to stay in the title race. For Spurs, a point would practically secure the new contract as they have significantly better goal difference than West Ham. A point would clinch at Europa League for Bournemouth; with a loss they have still good chances (92%). A win would clinch them the 6th position and the chance to CL, depending on how Villa do. Chelsea need to win to stay with a realistic chance to bring Europa League to Stamford Bridge.

Important matches for title race
Bournemouth vs Man City (31.2%)Home Win (36%)Draw (24%)Away Win (39%)
Arsenal100%100%73%
Man City< 1%< 1%27%

 


ArsenalMan City
pointsQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChance
8555%55%100%< 1%< 1%-
8455%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-
8377%22%77%23%23%45%
82100%23%77%23%< 1%-
81100%< 1%-46%23%< 1%
80100%< 1%-76%29%< 1%
79100%< 1%-81%5%< 1%
78100%< 1%-93%12%< 1%
77100%< 1%-100%7%< 1%
76100%< 1%-100%< 1%-
Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is successful, if they finish with X points
Important matches for avoiding relegation
Chelsea vs Tottenham (14.3%)Home Win (57%)Draw (22%)Away Win (21%)
West Ham15%< 1%< 1%
Tottenham85%100%100%



West HamTottenham
pointsQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChance
44< 1%< 1%-9%9%100%
43< 1%< 1%-9%< 1%-
42< 1%< 1%-24%14%100%
41< 1%< 1%-55%32%100%
40< 1%< 1%-61%5%100%
3945%45%19%81%21%>99.99%
3845%< 1%-100%19%55%
3769%24%< 1%100%< 1%-
36100%31%< 1%100%< 1%-
35100%< 1%-100%< 1%-
Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is successful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for CL race

Bournemouth vs Man City (14.1%)Home Win (36%)Draw (24%)Away Win (39%)
Liverpool87%99.91%100%
Bournemouth37%19%15%
Brighton< 1%4.9%8%
Chelsea< 1%< 1%1.5%
Important matches for EL race (EL or CL)
Chelsea vs Tottenham (11.3%)Home Win (57%)Draw (22%)Away Win (21%)
Chelsea40%16%10%
Brighton66%78%83%
Brentford8%18%18%
Bournemouth vs Man City (4.8%)Home Win (36%)Draw (24%)Away Win (39%)
Bournemouth100%100%92%
Brentford11%10%15%

 

Important matches for Europe race (ECL, EL or CL)
Chelsea vs Tottenham (21.4%)Home Win (57%)Draw (22%)Away Win (21%)
Chelsea71%36%25%
Brentford31%54%63%
Brighton92%95.9%97.8%

 

 

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Sunday, May 17, 2026

PL: Arsenal host Burnley

Arsenal host Burnley and if they win the league title is 90% theirs. West Ham lost up in Newcastle and now all three remaining matches have to go their way in the relegation battle: Tottenham lose against Chelsea and Everton, while West Ham beat Leeds at home. That happens roughly in one of twelve simulations. Bournemouth, Brentford, Brighton, Everton, and Sunderland are fighting over the three tickets to Europe, which possible might become four if Arsenal win on Wednesday and finish 5th.

 

Important matches for title race
Arsenal vs Burnley (12.6%)Home Win (85%)Draw (10%)Away Win (5%)
Man City10%40%48%
Arsenal90%60%52%



ArsenalMan City
pointsQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChance
8547%47%100%< 1%< 1%-
8447%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-
8371%24%79%23%23%50%
8293%22%77%23%< 1%-
8195.6%2.2%54%46%23%7%
8098.9%3.3%25%76%29%4.4%
79100%1.1%20%81%5%1.2%
78100%< 1%-93%12%< 1%
77100%< 1%-100%7%< 1%
76100%< 1%-100%< 1%-
Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is successful, if they finish with X points


Average Simulated
Season		Probabilities
PtsTeamPtsGDRelegatedTop 7Top 6Top 5Top 4Win LeagueECLELCL
79Arsenal83.5+45< 1%100%100%100%100%85%< 1%< 1%100%
77Man City80.4+44< 1%100%100%100%100%15%< 1%< 1%100%
68Man United69.2+16< 1%100%100%100%100%< 1%< 1%< 1%100%
62Aston Villa62.8+5< 1%100%100%100%65%< 1%< 1%< 1%100%
59Liverpool61.0+11< 1%100%100%95.4%35%< 1%< 1%4.6%95.4%
55Bournemouth57.5+4< 1%96.4%79%4.6%< 1%< 1%2.7%73%24%
53Brighton54.6+9< 1%65%17%< 1%< 1%< 1%22%68%4.1%
52Brentford52.8+3< 1%10%1.5%< 1%< 1%< 1%30%12%< 1%
49Chelsea52.4+7< 1%20%2.4%< 1%< 1%< 1%25%28%< 1%
51Sunderland52.2-7< 1%8%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%15%14%< 1%
49Fulham50.6-6< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
49Everton50.2-2< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
49Newcastle50.2-0< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%3.0%< 1%< 1%
47Leeds48.2-4< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
45Crystal Palace45.9-11< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%64%< 1%
43Forest44.6-3< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
38Tottenham40.4-108%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
36West Ham37.6-2292%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
21Burnley22.9-38100%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
19Wolves20.1-41100%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%


 

 

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