PL: Arsenal with 6p lead

Arsenal with 6p lead with two more matches played. Pressure on Man City with two upcoming matches against Everton and Brentford as detailed below.

In the relegation battle West Ham lost against Brentford. If Spurs draw Villa today, the battle is a fifty-fifty race according to our simulations.

The race to Europe continue to look like a full-on race with half a dozen contenders. 

 

Important matches for title race
Everton vs Man City (10.3%)	Home Win (34%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (42%)
Arsenal	93%	87%	71%
Man City	7%	13%	29%
Man City vs Brentford (7.2%)	Home Win (64%)	Draw (20%)	Away Win (17%)
Arsenal	76%	90%	95%
Man City	24%	10%	5%

	Arsenal			Man City
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
85	26%	26%	98.2%	4.0%	4.0%	85%
84	26%	< 1%	-	4.0%	< 1%	-
83	50%	24%	92%	13%	9%	61%
82	73%	23%	83%	23%	10%	38%
81	79%	7%	74%	30%	7%	24%
80	91%	12%	62%	47%	17%	14%
79	97.4%	6%	46%	60%	13%	5%
78	98.7%	1.3%	34%	70%	10%	2.0%
77	99.73%	1.0%	23%	83%	12%	< 1%
76	100%	< 1%	14%	90%	7%	< 1%
75	100%	< 1%	-	94%	4.5%	< 1%
74	100%	< 1%	-	97.6%	3.5%	< 1%
73	100%	< 1%	-	99.02%	1.4%	< 1%
72	100%	< 1%	-	99.62%	< 1%	< 1%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is successful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for avoiding relegation
Aston Villa vs Tottenham (10.1%)	Home Win (65%)	Draw (19%)	Away Win (16%)
Tottenham	38%	50%	75%
West Ham	63%	51%	28%

	Tottenham			West Ham			Forest
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
46	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	28%	14%	100%
45	< 1%	< 1%	-	2.0%	2.0%	99.9%	44%	15%	100%
44	2.4%	1.8%	99.5%	2.0%	< 1%	-	53%	10%	>99.99%
43	7%	4.8%	99.1%	7%	5%	95%	72%	18%	99.94%
42	9%	2.3%	94%	19%	12%	92%	85%	13%	99.4%
41	21%	11%	83%	24%	4.2%	82%	90%	6%	97.1%
40	36%	15%	78%	43%	20%	66%	97.1%	7%	94%
39	44%	9%	57%	67%	24%	56%	100%	2.9%	82%
38	64%	20%	33%	74%	7%	36%	100%	< 1%	-
37	80%	16%	26%	90%	15%	20%	100%	< 1%	-
36	86%	7%	10%	100%	10%	14%	100%	< 1%	-
35	95.5%	9%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-
34	100%	4.5%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-
33	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is successful, if they finish with X points

 

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
76	Arsenal	82.4	+45	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	100%	82%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
70	Man City	79.1	+41	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	100%	18%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
61	Man United	67.3	+15	< 1%	100%	100%	>99.99%	91%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	>99.99%
58	Aston Villa	64.5	+6	< 1%	>99.99%	99.91%	99.0%	52%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	99.35%
58	Liverpool	64.3	+14	< 1%	99.98%	99.79%	98.5%	58%	< 1%	< 1%	1.4%	98.5%
50	Brighton	55.1	+9	< 1%	54%	31%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	20%	47%	6%
49	Bournemouth	54.5	+0	< 1%	38%	20%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	18%	32%	4.1%
51	Brentford	54.3	+5	< 1%	34%	15%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	23%	30%	2.7%
48	Chelsea	54.2	+9	< 1%	43%	23%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	11%	61%	4.3%
47	Everton	52.7	+0	< 1%	16%	6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	13%	14%	1.2%
48	Fulham	52.6	-4	< 1%	12%	4.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	11%	11%	< 1%
47	Sunderland	50.1	-11	< 1%	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.4%	1.4%	< 1%
45	Newcastle	49.2	-2	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%
43	Crystal Palace	48.2	-7	< 1%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	64%	< 1%
43	Leeds	46.8	-5	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
39	Forest	44.0	-5	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	30%
36	West Ham	39.3	-20	45%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
34	Tottenham	38.5	-12	54%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
20	Burnley	22.9	-39	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
18	Wolves	21.1	-40	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

 

 

PL: Leeds almost safe from from relegation

Leeds now have 9 points down to Tottenham and need another 4 points to be mathematically safe or if they win against Tottenham next Monday. In most simulations 39-40 points are required to stay safe.

	Tottenham			West Ham			Forest
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
47	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	14%	3.4%	100%
46	< 1%	< 1%	100%	1.9%	1.5%	100%	28%	14%	100%
45	< 1%	< 1%	-	6%	3.7%	99.9%	44%	16%	>99.99%
44	2.3%	1.8%	99%	8%	2.0%	99%	53%	10%	99.9%
43	7%	4.7%	97%	17%	10%	95%	72%	19%	99.8%
42	9%	2.3%	87%	30%	13%	92%	85%	13%	99%
41	21%	11%	74%	39%	8%	82%	90%	6%	96%
40	35%	15%	63%	59%	20%	65%	97.2%	7%	89%
39	44%	9%	42%	76%	17%	56%	100%	2.8%	76%
38	64%	20%	24%	83%	7%	36%	100%	< 1%	-
37	79%	16%	17%	94%	11%	20%	100%	< 1%	-
36	86%	7%	5%	100%	6%	14%	100%	< 1%	-
35	95.5%	9%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-
34	100%	4.5%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-
33	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is successful, if they finish with X points

 

Important matches for avoiding relegation
Aston Villa vs Tottenham (9.7%)	Home Win (65%)	Draw (19%)	Away Win (16%)
Tottenham	30%	41%	66%
West Ham	71%	61%	39%
Forest	98.8%	98%	95%
Brentford vs West Ham (9.5%)	Home Win (57%)	Draw (21%)	Away Win (21%)
West Ham	55%	66%	86%
Tottenham	46%	36%	18%

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
73	Arsenal	81.8	+44	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	100%	76%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
70	Man City	79.1	+41	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	100%	24%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
61	Man United	67.3	+15	< 1%	100%	>99.99%	99.8%	90%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	99.8%
58	Aston Villa	64.5	+6	< 1%	>99.99%	99.8%	97.9%	52%	< 1%	< 1%	1.4%	98.6%
58	Liverpool	64.3	+14	< 1%	99.98%	99.7%	97.5%	57%	< 1%	< 1%	2.4%	97.6%
50	Brighton	56.2	+10	< 1%	69%	46%	3.2%	< 1%	< 1%	16%	57%	11%
49	Bournemouth	54.6	+0	< 1%	36%	17%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	20%	30%	3.3%
48	Chelsea	54.2	+9	< 1%	39%	18%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	12%	60%	3.4%
48	Brentford	53.2	+3	< 1%	20%	7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	18%	18%	1.2%
48	Fulham	53.1	-3	< 1%	16%	6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	15%	14%	1.2%
47	Everton	52.7	+0	< 1%	15%	5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	14%	13%	< 1%
46	Sunderland	50.3	-11	< 1%	2.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	3.8%	2.6%	< 1%
43	Crystal Palace	48.2	-7	< 1%	1.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	64%	< 1%
42	Newcastle	47.8	-4	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
43	Leeds	46.8	-4	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
39	Forest	44.0	-5	1.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	30%
36	West Ham	40.1	-18	36%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
34	Tottenham	38.4	-12	62%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
20	Burnley	22.9	-40	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
17	Wolves	21.7	-39	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

 

Europa and Conference League: Crystal Palace almost clinch a place in the final

Europa League

Advantage Braga after 2-1 at home and fifty-fifty when Forest travel to Villa Park next week

Final		Champions
Braga (60%) Freiburg (40%)
		Aston Villa (35%) Forest (30%) Braga (21%) Freiburg (14%)
Aston Villa (50%) Forest (50%)

 

Conference League

Palace almost in the final after a two-goal win away, while it;s a close contest in the other semi.  

Final		Champions
Crystal Palace (98%)
		Crystal Palace (63%) Strasbourg (19%)
Rayo Vallecano (53%) Strasbourg (47%)

 

Which countries get extra CL spots

Germany and Spain almost secure the extra CL spot if they have both their teams to the finals. Germany have Bayern and Freiburg, while Spain have Atletico and Rayo Vallecano.  

		Score
Country	Probability	Average	Min	Max
ENG	100%	19.94	19.39	20.06
GER	43%	15.72	15.21	16.14
ESP	34%	15.7	15.5	16.25
POR	22%	15.48	15.2	15.8

Number of finalists from GER; 377 mbit

n	0	1	2
Probability	33%	49%	18%
Chance if	4.0%	49%	96.6%

Number of finalists from ESP; 328 mbit

n	0	1	2
Probability	38%	52%	10%
Chance if	< 1%	48%	88%

Number of finalists from POR; 197 mbit

n	0	1
Probability	40%	60%
Chance if	< 1%	37%

Number of tournament winners for GER; 86 mbit

n	0	1	2
Probability	66%	31%	3.4%
Chance if	32%	61%	95%

Number of tournament winners for ESP; 56 mbit

n	0	1	2
Probability	77%	21%	1.1%
Chance if	27%	56%	89%

Number of tournament winners for POR; 23 mbit

n	0	1
Probability	79%	21%
Chance if	18%	38%

 

 

CL: Draw in Madrid

 Arsenal increased their chances from 79% to 81% with a draw against Atletic.

Final		Champions
Paris SG (54%) Bayern (46%)
		Arsenal (46%) Paris SG (24%) Bayern (23%)
Arsenal (81%) Atletico (19%)

 

CL: Advantage PSG after wild 1st-leg win

After a dramatic first leg, the tide has turned, PSG are now 54% favorites to reach the final, having flipped Bayern's pre-match 58-42 advantage.

Final		Champions
Paris SG (54%) Bayern (46%)
		Arsenal (45%) Paris SG (25%) Bayern (24%)
Arsenal (79%) Atletico (21%)

 

 

PL: Man United nearly (>99.8%) clinched CL spot

Man United need to take two more points to clinch a place in CL mathematically. Brentford are struggling to reach Europe with a current estimated probability of 40%. They need to take 7 points in the remaining four matches to have 50% chance to reach Europe, and they need to take 8 points to have a 50% chance to reach Europa League. It's certainly tight in the Europe zone with seven teams within 4 points.

 

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
73	Arsenal	81.8	+44	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	100%	76%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
70	Man City	79.1	+41	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	100%	24%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
61	Man United	67.2	+15	< 1%	100%	>99.99%	99.81%	90%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	99.82%
58	Aston Villa	64.5	+6	< 1%	99.99%	99.83%	97.9%	52%	< 1%	< 1%	1.1%	98.9%
58	Liverpool	64.3	+14	< 1%	99.97%	99.69%	97.5%	57%	< 1%	< 1%	2.5%	97.5%
50	Brighton	56.2	+10	< 1%	69%	46%	3.1%	< 1%	< 1%	16%	55%	13%
49	Bournemouth	54.6	+0	< 1%	36%	17%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	20%	30%	4.3%
48	Chelsea	54.2	+9	< 1%	40%	18%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	12%	60%	4.3%
48	Brentford	53.2	+3	< 1%	20%	7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	18%	18%	1.5%
48	Fulham	53.1	-3	< 1%	16%	6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	14%	15%	1.5%
47	Everton	52.7	+0	< 1%	15%	5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	14%	14%	1.3%
46	Sunderland	50.3	-11	< 1%	2.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	3.8%	2.7%	< 1%
43	Crystal Palace	48.2	-7	< 1%	1.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	53%	< 1%
42	Newcastle	47.8	-4	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.0%	< 1%	< 1%
40	Leeds	45.9	-6	1.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
39	Forest	44.0	-5	1.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	21%
36	West Ham	40.1	-18	36%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
34	Tottenham	38.5	-12	61%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
20	Burnley	23.6	-38	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
17	Wolves	21.7	-39	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Important matches for EL race (EL or CL)
Newcastle vs Brighton (9.4%)	Home Win (46%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (30%)
Brighton	55%	68%	88%
Bournemouth	38%	35%	29%
Bournemouth vs Crystal Palace (8.6%)	Home Win (54%)	Draw (22%)	Away Win (24%)
Bournemouth	48%	24%	15%
Brighton	64%	71%	73%
Everton vs Man City (7%)	Home Win (34%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (42%)
Everton	29%	11%	6%
Brentford vs West Ham (6.5%)	Home Win (57%)	Draw (21%)	Away Win (21%)
Brentford	28%	10%	4.9%

PL: Man City vs Chelsea in FA cup final

Chelsea are missing Top-7 in 63% of the simulations, which means if they win the FA cup , it's quite likely that they have not already qualified to EL and that the 7th team in PL is going to Conference League rather than EL.

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
73	Arsenal	81.8	+44	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	100%	76%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
70	Man City	79.1	+41	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	100%	24%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
58	Man United	66.1	+15	< 1%	99.99%	99.86%	98.7%	83%	< 1%	< 1%	1.2%	98.7%
58	Aston Villa	64.5	+6	< 1%	99.98%	99.78%	97.7%	56%	< 1%	< 1%	1.2%	98.8%
58	Liverpool	64.3	+14	< 1%	99.95%	99.58%	97.1%	61%	< 1%	< 1%	2.8%	97.1%
50	Brighton	56.2	+10	< 1%	67%	44%	3.7%	< 1%	< 1%	17%	53%	12%
49	Bournemouth	54.6	+0	< 1%	33%	15%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	19%	28%	3.7%
48	Chelsea	54.2	+9	< 1%	37%	17%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	12%	59%	3.8%
48	Brentford	54.1	+4	< 1%	30%	14%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%	20%	26%	3.3%
48	Fulham	53.1	-3	< 1%	15%	5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	14%	13%	1.2%
47	Everton	52.7	+0	< 1%	14%	4.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	13%	12%	1.1%
46	Sunderland	50.3	-11	< 1%	2.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	3.4%	2.3%	< 1%
43	Crystal Palace	48.2	-7	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	53%	< 1%
42	Newcastle	47.8	-4	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
40	Leeds	45.9	-6	1.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
39	Forest	44.0	-5	1.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	20%
36	West Ham	40.1	-18	36%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
34	Tottenham	38.5	-12	61%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
20	Burnley	23.6	-38	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
17	Wolves	21.7	-39	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Titles

Team	League	FA Cup	League Cup	Europe
Arsenal	76%			44%
Man City	24%	64%	100%
Aston Villa				46%
Chelsea		36%
Crystal Palace				52%
Forest				20%