CL: Final Four

 Probabilities final four

Final		Champions
Bayern (58%) Paris SG (42%)
		Arsenal (44%) Bayern (29%) Paris SG (19%)
Arsenal (79%) Atletico (21%)

 

Which countries get extra CL spots

		Score
Country	Probability	Average	Min	Max
ENG	100%	19.69	17.78	20.39
ESP	51%	16.32	15.06	18
GER	43%	16.23	14.79	17.71
POR	6%	14.96	14.2	17.4

Number of finalists from GER; 300 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	13%	38%	37%	12%
Chance if	3.4%	21%	63%	96.7%

Number of finalists from ESP; 282 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	28%	46%	23%	3.5%
Chance if	12%	52%	89%	99.6%

Number of semifinalists from ESP; 192 mbit

n	1	2	3	4
Probability	1.9%	33%	61%	4.9%
Chance if	2%	20%	64%	99.9%

Number of semifinalists from POR; 159 mbit

n	0	1	2
Probability	40%	47%	13%
Chance if	< 1%	< 1%	41%

Number of finalists from POR; 148 mbit

n	0	1	2
Probability	72%	26%	2.3%
Chance if	< 1%	14%	94%

Number of semifinalists from GER; 82 mbit

n	1	2	3
Probability	1.6%	25%	73%
Chance if	< 1%	19%	53%

Number of tournament winners for ESP; 71 mbit

n	0	1	2
Probability	67%	29%	4.0%
Chance if	40%	68%	92%

Number of tournament winners for GER; 60 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	48%	40%	10%	< 1%
Chance if	31%	49%	73%	96%

Number of tournament winners for POR; 52 mbit

n	0	1
Probability	86%	14%
Chance if	2.9%	25%

 

CL: And so they were six

 

Semi-finals		Final		Champions
Paris SG (100%)
		Bayern (49%) Paris SG (43%)
Bayern (84%)
				Arsenal (44%) Bayern (24%) Paris SG (18%)
Atletico (100%)
		Arsenal (73%) Atletico (23%)
Arsenal (93%)

 

Which countries get extra CL spots

		Score
Country	Probability	Average	Min	Max
ENG	100%	19.7	17.5	20.5
ESP	66%	16.55	15.06	19.13
GER	28%	15.96	14.29	17.71
POR	6%	14.92	14	19

Number of finalists from GER; 260 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	18%	42%	32%	8%
Chance if	1.5%	12%	47%	92%

Number of finalists from ESP; 248 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	22%	44%	28%	6%
Chance if	23%	65%	93%	99.8%

Number of semifinalists from ESP; 237 mbit

n	1	2	3	4	5
Probability	1.6%	26%	55%	15%	1.1%
Chance if	5%	29%	75%	99.5%	99.9%

Number of semifinalists from POR; 172 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	36%	47%	16%	< 1%
Chance if	< 1%	< 1%	34%	83%

Number of finalists from POR; 163 mbit

n	0	1	2
Probability	68%	29%	3.5%
Chance if	< 1%	11%	85%

Number of semifinalists from GER; 129 mbit

n	1	2	3
Probability	7%	35%	58%
Chance if	< 1%	9%	42%

Number of tournament winners for ESP; 69 mbit

n	0	1	2
Probability	60%	33%	6%
Chance if	55%	80%	95.5%

Number of tournament winners for POR; 57 mbit

n	0	1
Probability	84%	16%
Chance if	2.9%	23%

Number of tournament winners for GER; 53 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	55%	37%	8%	< 1%
Chance if	18%	34%	59%	90%

 

PL: Title match at Etihad

Title match at Etihad where Arsenal can clinch the title with a win and City are likely to win the league if they win given the momentum.

Before that we have plenty of important matches for qualifications to the Europa cups. And on top of that a tight relegation race with Spurs visiting Brighton and Burnley going to Forest for a last chance. 

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
70	Arsenal	82.8	+46	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	100%	91%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
64	Man City	76.1	+39	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	>99.99%	9%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
55	Aston Villa	64.9	+8	< 1%	99.47%	98.2%	94%	76%	< 1%	< 1%	3.0%	96.5%
55	Man United	64.3	+14	< 1%	99.0%	96.9%	91%	73%	< 1%	1.0%	8%	91%
52	Liverpool	61.8	+12	< 1%	95%	88%	73%	40%	< 1%	3.9%	19%	74%
48	Chelsea	57.3	+14	< 1%	67%	48%	21%	6%	< 1%	10%	53%	21%
47	Everton	55.7	+3	< 1%	38%	21%	7%	1.6%	< 1%	18%	27%	7%
47	Brentford	55.1	+5	< 1%	33%	17%	6%	1.3%	< 1%	19%	24%	6%
46	Brighton	55.1	+7	< 1%	36%	20%	6%	1.3%	< 1%	18%	26%	6%
45	Bournemouth	53.3	-1	< 1%	14%	6%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%	12%	11%	1.2%
46	Sunderland	52.1	-7	< 1%	7%	3.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	6%	5%	< 1%
44	Fulham	51.4	-5	< 1%	5%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	6%	4.2%	< 1%
42	Newcastle	50.4	-2	< 1%	3.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	4.1%	2.5%	< 1%
42	Crystal Palace	49.6	-5	< 1%	2.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.3%	52%	< 1%
36	Leeds	44.4	-10	1.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	12%	< 1%
33	Forest	41.1	-12	9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	11%
32	West Ham	38.2	-20	40%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
30	Tottenham	37.2	-13	49%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
20	Burnley	25.4	-35	99.99%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
17	Wolves	24.3	-36	>99.99%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Titles

Team	League	FA Cup	League Cup	Europe
Arsenal	91%			43%
Man City	9%	57%	100%
Aston Villa	< 1%			44%
Liverpool				2.8%
Chelsea		28%
Crystal Palace				51%
Leeds		12%
Forest				11%

Important matches for title race
Man City vs Arsenal (13.4%)	Home Win (36%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (40%)
Arsenal	80%	94%	99.0%
Man City	20%	6%	1.0%

Important matches for CL race
Everton vs Liverpool (10.5%)	Home Win (38%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (37%)
Liverpool	61%	74%	88%
Everton	15%	3.9%	1.2%

Important matches for EL race (EL or CL)
Everton vs Liverpool (10.3%)	Home Win (38%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (37%)
Everton	52%	29%	20%
Liverpool	88%	94%	98.6%
Brentford vs Fulham (9.7%)	Home Win (53%)	Draw (23%)	Away Win (25%)
Brentford	41%	21%	12%
Fulham	1.2%	3.6%	12%
Tottenham vs Brighton (7.1%)	Home Win (39%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (37%)
Brighton	19%	28%	49%
Brentford	33%	31%	26%
Newcastle vs Bournemouth (5.7%)	Home Win (51%)	Draw (23%)	Away Win (26%)
Bournemouth	6%	11%	26%
Newcastle	4.4%	< 1%	< 1%

Important matches for Europe race (ECL, EL or CL)
Brentford vs Fulham (13.8%)	Home Win (53%)	Draw (23%)	Away Win (25%)
Brentford	63%	39%	25%
Fulham	3.9%	9%	25%
Everton vs Liverpool (9.2%)	Home Win (38%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (37%)
Everton	71%	49%	37%
Liverpool	95%	98.0%	99.68%
Newcastle vs Bournemouth (8.9%)	Home Win (51%)	Draw (23%)	Away Win (26%)
Bournemouth	15%	24%	44%
Newcastle	11%	3.0%	1.1%
Tottenham vs Brighton (7.8%)	Home Win (39%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (37%)
Brighton	35%	47%	69%

Important matches for avoiding relegation
Tottenham vs Brighton (9.6%)	Home Win (39%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (37%)
Tottenham	68%	47%	37%
West Ham	48%	63%	71%
Forest	87%	91%	94%
Forest vs Burnley (3.9%)	Home Win (61%)	Draw (20%)	Away Win (18%)
Forest	95.3%	86%	79%
Tottenham	49%	54%	57%
West Ham	58%	62%	65%

1st Leg Quarterfinals Europa and Conference League

In EL, Aston Villa are favorites on the lower half and likely playing Betis or Freiburg. In Conference League, Crystal Palace are favorites and likely playing Rayo Vallecano or Mainz in the final.

The English teams have secured an extra CL spot, so there will be at least five teams from Premier League. The second spot is most likely going to La Liga (66%) or Bundesliga (27%). La Liga almost secure (99.5%) a spot if four Spanish teams reach semifinals and have good (75%) chance if three Spanish teams reach semifinals.

They have

Barcelona or Atletico (100%)

Real have 1-2 vs Bayern (16%)

Betis have 1-1 vs Braga (68%)

Celta have 0-3 vs Freiburg (11%)

Rayo Vallecano have 3-0 vs AEK (93%)

 

Bundesliga need all three teams going through to semifinals to have a reasonable chance (42%). They have 

Bayern have 2-1 vs Real (84%)

Freiburg have 3-0 vs Celta (89%)

Mainz have 2-0 vs Strasbourg (78%)

 

Europa League

Semi-finals		Final		Champions
Betis (68%) Braga (32%)
		Betis (40%) Freiburg (38%) Braga (16%)
Freiburg (89%)
				Aston Villa (44%) Betis (15%) Freiburg (12%)
Forest (58%) Porto (42%)
		Aston Villa (63%) Forest (20%)
Aston Villa (98%)

 

Conference League

Semi-finals		Final		Champions
Shakhtar (92%)
		Crystal Palace (80%) Shakhtar (16%)
Crystal Palace (96%)
				Crystal Palace (51%) Mainz (18%) Rayo Vallecano (17%)
Rayo Vallecano (93%)
		Rayo Vallecano (42%) Mainz (42%) Strasbourg (13%)
Mainz (78%) Strasbourg (22%)

 

Which countries get extra CL spots

		Score
Country	Probability	Average	Min	Max
ENG	100%	19.89	17.5	21.5
ESP	66%	16.57	15.06	19
GER	27%	15.96	14.29	17.71
POR	6%	14.92	14	19

Number of finalists from GER; 259 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	18%	42%	32%	8%
Chance if	1.4%	11%	46%	92%

Number of finalists from ESP; 247 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	22%	43%	28%	7%
Chance if	23%	65%	93%	99.8%

Number of semifinalists from ESP; 236 mbit

n	1	2	3	4	5
Probability	1.6%	26%	55%	15%	1.1%
Chance if	5%	29%	75%	99.5%	>99.99%

Number of semifinalists from POR; 169 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	37%	47%	16%	< 1%
Chance if	< 1%	< 1%	33%	82%

Number of finalists from POR; 160 mbit

n	0	1	2
Probability	68%	29%	3.5%
Chance if	< 1%	11%	84%

Number of semifinalists from GER; 129 mbit

n	1	2	3
Probability	7%	35%	58%
Chance if	< 1%	9%	42%

Number of tournament winners for ESP; 70 mbit

n	0	1	2
Probability	59%	34%	6%
Chance if	55%	80%	95.2%

Number of tournament winners for POR; 57 mbit

n	0	1
Probability	84%	16%
Chance if	2.8%	23%

Number of tournament winners for GER; 53 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	55%	37%	8%	< 1%
Chance if	18%	34%	58%	91%

 

 

 

 

CL: Quarterfinals 1st Leg

 

Semi-finals		Final		Champions
Paris SG (82%) Liverpool (18%)
		Bayern (50%) Paris SG (35%) Real Madrid (8%)
Bayern (84%)
				Arsenal (43%) Bayern (24%) Paris SG (15%)
Atletico (87%)
		Arsenal (72%) Atletico (20%)
Arsenal (93%)

 

CL: Probabilities after first quarterfinal night

Bayern are favorites after an away win against Real, and Arsenal are favorites against Sporting after a late winner against Sporting.

Semi-finals		Final		Champions
Paris SG (53%) Liverpool (47%)
		Bayern (51%) Paris SG (23%) Liverpool (18%)
Bayern (84%)
				Arsenal (39%) Bayern (24%) Barcelona (13%) Paris SG (9%)
Barcelona (67%) Atletico (33%)
		Arsenal (64%) Barcelona (26%)
Arsenal (93%)

 

PL: Three heavy points for Forest in relegation battle

 Hot Teams
Brighton: 12 points in the last 5 matches, 5.2 more than expected
Wolves: 8 points in the last 5 matches, 4.3 more than expected
Man United: 10 points in the last 5 matches, 2.9 more than expected
Everton: 9 points in the last 5 matches, 2.8 more than expected
Arsenal: 13 points in the last 5 matches, 2.6 more than expected

Cold Teams
Aston Villa: 4 points in the last 5 matches, 5.2 less than expected
Tottenham: 1 point in the last 5 matches, 5.1 less than expected
Leeds: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 3.3 less than expected
Bournemouth: 5 points in the last 5 matches, 3.3 less than expected
Chelsea: 4 points in the last 5 matches, 3.3 less than expected

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
70	Arsenal	84.8	+48	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	100%	97.1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
61	Man City	75.1	+37	< 1%	100%	>99.99%	>99.99%	99.94%	2.9%	< 1%	< 1%	>99.99%
55	Man United	66.2	+15	< 1%	99.71%	98.6%	94%	82%	< 1%	< 1%	6%	94%
54	Aston Villa	65.7	+8	< 1%	99.59%	98.2%	93%	76%	< 1%	< 1%	3.6%	96.1%
49	Liverpool	61.2	+12	< 1%	92%	82%	58%	26%	< 1%	3.8%	30%	63%
48	Chelsea	59.5	+18	< 1%	87%	72%	40%	14%	< 1%	6%	48%	40%
46	Brentford	55.8	+5	< 1%	46%	21%	7%	1.5%	< 1%	20%	38%	7%
46	Everton	54.9	+1	< 1%	31%	14%	4.2%	< 1%	< 1%	19%	27%	4.2%
43	Brighton	53.0	+5	< 1%	17%	7%	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%	16%	16%	1.6%
42	Newcastle	52.2	-0	< 1%	10%	3.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	13%	10%	< 1%
44	Fulham	52.0	-4	< 1%	9%	2.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	10%	8%	< 1%
42	Bournemouth	50.9	-4	< 1%	4.6%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	7%	4.7%	< 1%
43	Sunderland	50.1	-8	< 1%	2.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	4.2%	2.8%	< 1%
39	Crystal Palace	47.9	-7	< 1%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.2%	41%	< 1%
33	Leeds	42.5	-11	7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.2%	< 1%
32	Forest	40.9	-13	11%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	10%
30	Tottenham	39.4	-11	21%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
29	West Ham	37.1	-24	61%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.9%	< 1%
20	Burnley	26.8	-33	99.86%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
17	Wolves	24.4	-34	99.96%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Titles

Team	League	FA Cup	League Cup	Europe
Arsenal	97.1%	46%		38%
Man City	2.9%	21%	100%
Man United	< 1%
Aston Villa	< 1%			46%
Liverpool		10%		12%
Chelsea		19%
Crystal Palace				41%
Leeds		2.2%
Forest				10%
West Ham		1.9%

Simulated points for winner: 83 - 87
Simulated points for 17th team: 37 - 40
Most likely combo of teams in CL

42%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
24%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Chelsea, Man City, Man United
6%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
4.7%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Forest, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
3.8%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Brentford, Man City, Man United
3.6%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City
2.6%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Chelsea, Forest, Man City, Man United
2.4%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Everton, Man City, Man United
2.1%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Man United

Most likely combo of teams being relegated

61%	Burnley, West Ham, Wolves
21%	Burnley, Tottenham, Wolves
11%	Burnley, Forest, Wolves
7%	Burnley, Leeds, Wolves