PL: Key matches in race for Europe

Big games coming up in the midweek for the Europe race with  Bournemouth vs Brentford and Chelsea vs Aston Villa in the CL race.

Hot Teams
Man United: 13 points in the last 5 matches, 4.3 more than expected
Man City: 13 points in the last 5 matches, 4.3 more than expected
Brentford: 10 points in the last 5 matches, 4.0 more than expected
Liverpool: 12 points in the last 5 matches, 2.6 more than expected
Bournemouth: 9 points in the last 5 matches, 1.3 more than expected

Cold Teams
Forest: 2 points in the last 5 matches, 4.8 less than expected
Tottenham: 1 point in the last 5 matches, 4.4 less than expected
Aston Villa: 5 points in the last 5 matches, 4.3 less than expected
Newcastle: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 3.5 less than expected
Burnley: 4 points in the last 5 matches, 1.2 less than expected

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
64	Arsenal	83.0	+47	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	>99.99%	85%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
59	Man City	77.2	+39	< 1%	>99.99%	>99.99%	99.98%	99.79%	15%	< 1%	< 1%	99.98%
51	Aston Villa	67.9	+13	< 1%	99.57%	97.8%	91%	72%	< 1%	< 1%	6%	94%
51	Man United	66.1	+14	< 1%	98.6%	94%	82%	56%	< 1%	1.5%	16%	82%
48	Liverpool	65.7	+16	< 1%	98.4%	94%	81%	55%	< 1%	1.3%	15%	83%
45	Chelsea	60.8	+19	< 1%	87%	70%	35%	15%	< 1%	7%	49%	38%
43	Brentford	57.3	+6	< 1%	57%	26%	9%	2.5%	< 1%	20%	47%	9%
40	Fulham	53.1	-4	< 1%	15%	4.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	16%	17%	< 1%
40	Everton	52.8	-3	< 1%	14%	4.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	15%	12%	< 1%
39	Bournemouth	52.6	-3	< 1%	14%	4.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	15%	12%	< 1%
36	Newcastle	51.0	-0	< 1%	7%	2.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	10%	11%	3.2%
37	Brighton	50.8	+3	< 1%	8%	2.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	10%	7%	< 1%
37	Sunderland	46.7	-12	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.6%	1.3%	< 1%
35	Crystal Palace	46.7	-9	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.1%	39%	< 1%
31	Leeds	45.0	-10	1.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	3.6%	< 1%
29	Tottenham	42.5	-6	5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.2%
27	Forest	39.1	-18	23%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	7%
25	West Ham	35.6	-25	71%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.3%	< 1%
19	Burnley	28.6	-31	98.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
13	Wolves	21.9	-37	99.97%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Titles

Team	League	FA Cup	League Cup	Europe
Arsenal	85%	44%	59%	35%
Man City	15%	12%	41%	10%
Aston Villa	< 1%			35%
Man United	< 1%
Liverpool	< 1%	14%		11%
Chelsea		12%		4.2%
Brentford		3.4%
Fulham		4.1%
Newcastle		5%		2.9%
Sunderland		< 1%
Crystal Palace				38%
Leeds		3.3%
Tottenham				1.2%
Forest				7%
West Ham		1.2%
Wolves		< 1%

Important matches for title race
Brighton vs Arsenal (3.5%)	Home Win (26%)	Draw (23%)	Away Win (51%)
Arsenal	77%	82%	90%
Man City	23%	18%	10%
Man City vs Forest (2.3%)	Home Win (70%)	Draw (17%)	Away Win (13%)
Man City	18%	10%	7%
Arsenal	82%	90%	93%

	Arsenal			Man City
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
89	6%	4.1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
88	10%	4.4%	99.9%	< 1%	< 1%	-
87	15%	5%	99.95%	< 1%	< 1%	95%
86	25%	11%	99.0%	1.6%	< 1%	86%
85	34%	9%	98.1%	2.8%	1.2%	80%
84	45%	11%	96.6%	6%	3.0%	68%
83	57%	12%	92%	9%	3.2%	55%
82	67%	10%	88%	14%	5%	43%
81	76%	9%	81%	21%	7%	31%
80	84%	8%	72%	28%	7%	21%
79	89%	5%	63%	38%	9%	14%
78	93%	4.2%	53%	48%	10%	9%
77	96.2%	2.8%	40%	57%	9%	5.0%
76	97.8%	1.7%	32%	66%	10%	2.7%
75	98.9%	1.1%	22%	75%	8%	1.3%
74	99.48%	< 1%	14%	82%	7%	< 1%
73	99.76%	< 1%	9%	87%	6%	< 1%
72	99.90%	< 1%	5%	92%	4.4%	< 1%
71	99.96%	< 1%	2%	95%	3.1%	< 1%
70	99.99%	< 1%	< 1%	97.0%	2.2%	< 1%
69	>99.99%	< 1%	< 1%	98.3%	1.3%	< 1%
68	>99.99%	< 1%	-	99.14%	< 1%	< 1%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for CL race
Aston Villa vs Chelsea (6.5%)	Home Win (50%)	Draw (23%)	Away Win (27%)
Chelsea	29%	38%	55%
Aston Villa	97.6%	93%	87%
Wolves vs Liverpool (2.7%)	Home Win (21%)	Draw (21%)	Away Win (58%)
Liverpool	73%	79%	88%
Chelsea	42%	40%	35%
Brentford	11%	9%	8%

Important matches for EL race (EL or CL)
Bournemouth vs Brentford (7.3%)	Home Win (49%)	Draw (23%)	Away Win (28%)
Brentford	45%	57%	72%
Bournemouth	19%	9%	4.4%
Aston Villa vs Chelsea (2%)	Home Win (50%)	Draw (23%)	Away Win (27%)
Chelsea	83%	88%	94%
Aston Villa	99.89%	99.5%	98.9%

Important matches for Europe race (ECL, EL or CL)
Bournemouth vs Brentford (7.7%)	Home Win (49%)	Draw (23%)	Away Win (28%)
Bournemouth	38%	22%	15%
Brentford	66%	77%	88%
Everton vs Burnley (3.3%)	Home Win (61%)	Draw (20%)	Away Win (18%)
Everton	34%	20%	14%

Important matches for avoiding relegation
Fulham vs West Ham (4.9%)	Home Win (56%)	Draw (22%)	Away Win (22%)
West Ham	23%	30%	46%
Forest	81%	76%	67%
Tottenham	96.0%	95%	92%
Man City vs Forest (2.1%)	Home Win (70%)	Draw (17%)	Away Win (13%)
Forest	74%	81%	90%
West Ham	32%	27%	20%

	Burnley			West Ham			Forest			Tottenham			Leeds
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
50	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	4.1%	1.6%	100%	14%	4.9%	100%
49	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	100%	1.0%	< 1%	100%	7%	2.7%	100%	19%	6%	100%
48	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	100%	1.8%	< 1%	100%	11%	4.3%	100%	27%	8%	100%
47	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	100%	3.2%	1.4%	100%	16%	5.0%	100%	36%	9%	100%
46	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	100%	6%	2.5%	>99.99%	23%	7%	100%	45%	9%	100%
45	< 1%	< 1%	-	1.2%	< 1%	99.9%	9%	3.1%	99.98%	31%	8%	>99.99%	55%	10%	>99.99%
44	< 1%	< 1%	-	2.4%	1.1%	99.3%	13%	4.7%	99.9%	40%	9%	99.99%	65%	10%	99.98%
43	< 1%	< 1%	97%	3.9%	1.6%	98%	20%	6%	99.6%	50%	10%	99.94%	73%	9%	99.92%
42	< 1%	< 1%	97%	6%	2.5%	93%	27%	7%	98.8%	60%	10%	99.7%	81%	8%	99.6%
41	< 1%	< 1%	87%	10%	3.9%	85%	36%	9%	96.9%	69%	9%	99.0%	87%	6%	98.5%
40	< 1%	< 1%	78%	15%	4.8%	74%	45%	10%	93%	77%	8%	97.1%	92%	4.6%	96.3%
39	< 1%	< 1%	63%	22%	7%	61%	55%	10%	87%	84%	7%	93%	95.2%	3.4%	92%
38	1.2%	< 1%	47%	30%	8%	47%	65%	10%	79%	90%	5%	88%	97.4%	2.2%	84%
37	2.2%	< 1%	31%	39%	9%	34%	74%	9%	69%	94%	4.1%	79%	98.7%	1.3%	73%
36	3.7%	1.6%	19%	49%	10%	23%	82%	7%	58%	96.5%	2.8%	68%	99.41%	< 1%	61%
35	6%	2.6%	11%	60%	11%	15%	88%	6%	46%	98.1%	1.7%	56%	99.77%	< 1%	45%
34	10%	3.4%	5%	69%	9%	8%	93%	4.8%	34%	99.11%	1.0%	41%	99.92%	< 1%	28%
33	15%	5.0%	2.2%	78%	9%	4.4%	95.8%	3.1%	24%	99.64%	< 1%	28%	99.98%	< 1%	21%
32	22%	7%	< 1%	86%	8%	2.1%	97.9%	2.1%	15%	99.87%	< 1%	19%	>99.99%	< 1%	11%
31	29%	8%	< 1%	91%	5%	< 1%	99.09%	1.2%	8%	99.96%	< 1%	12%	100%	< 1%	-
30	39%	9%	< 1%	95.1%	4.0%	< 1%	99.64%	< 1%	3%	>99.99%	< 1%	8%	100%	< 1%	-
29	49%	11%	< 1%	97.7%	2.6%	< 1%	99.89%	< 1%	2%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-
28	59%	10%	< 1%	99.0%	1.3%	< 1%	99.98%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-
27	70%	10%	< 1%	99.65%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-
26	79%	9%	< 1%	99.94%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-
25	86%	7%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points



Simulated points for winner: 81 - 86
Simulated points for 17th team: 37 - 40

Coming Matches

Home		Draw		Away
Bournemouth	49%	23%	28%	Brentford
Everton	61%	20%	18%	Burnley
Leeds	60%	21%	19%	Sunderland
Wolves	21%	21%	58%	Liverpool
Aston Villa	50%	23%	27%	Chelsea
Brighton	26%	23%	51%	Arsenal
Fulham	56%	22%	22%	West Ham
Man City	70%	17%	13%	Forest
Newcastle	48%	23%	29%	Man United
Tottenham	50%	23%	27%	Crystal Palace

Most likely combo of teams in CL

47%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
11%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City
11%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Chelsea, Man City, Man United
6%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
3.9%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
3.7%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Forest, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
2.6%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Brentford, Liverpool, Man City
2.3%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Brentford, Man City, Man United
1.5%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Man United, Newcastle

Most likely combo of teams being relegated

69%	Burnley, West Ham, Wolves
21%	Burnley, Forest, Wolves
5%	Burnley, Tottenham, Wolves
1.8%	Burnley, Leeds, Wolves
1.6%	Forest, West Ham, Wolves

 

 

CL R16 Draw

Below are the updated probabilities after the draw. Comparing the Champ probabilities before and after the draw, most teams on the lower half of the bracket have increased their chances. The exception is Tottenham who drew Atletico on the lower half instead of Galatasaray on the upper half. Arsenal increased their chances from 30% to 34%, while for example Bayern decreased from 15% to 13% ending up in a quite busy side of the bracket.  

Champions League

Pos	Pts	Team	Pts	GD	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
1	24	Arsenal	24	23-4	85%	72%	55%	34%
2	21	Bayern	21	22-8	79%	45%	26%	13%
3	18	Liverpool	18	20-8	85%	45%	22%	10%
4	17	Tottenham	17	17-7	47%	17%	4.3%	1.5%
5	16	Barcelona	16	22-14	59%	38%	15%	7%
6	16	Chelsea	16	17-10	47%	23%	10%	4.5%
7	16	Sporting	16	17-11	75%	18%	8%	3.1%
8	16	Man City	16	15-9	61%	32%	18%	9%
9	15	Real Madrid	15	21-12	39%	17%	8%	3.3%
10	15	Inter	15	15-7	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
11	14	Paris SG	14	21-11	53%	29%	14%	7%
12	14	Newcastle	14	17-7	41%	24%	8%	3.3%
13	13	Juventus	13	14-10	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
14	13	Atletico	13	17-15	53%	21%	6%	2.3%
15	13	Atalanta	13	10-10	21%	6%	1.6%	< 1%
16	12	Leverkusen	12	13-14	15%	7%	2.8%	< 1%
17	11	Dortmund	11	19-17	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
18	11	Olympiakos	11	10-14	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
19	10	Brugge	10	15-17	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
20	10	Galatasaray	10	9-11	15%	2.8%	< 1%	< 1%
21	10	Monaco	10	8-14	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
22	10	Karabakh Agdam	10	13-21	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
23	9	Bodoe Glimt	9	14-15	25%	2.6%	< 1%	< 1%
24	9	Benfica	9	10-12	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Quarter-finals		Semi-finals		Final		Champions
Paris SG (53%) Chelsea (47%)
		Liverpool (45%) Paris SG (29%) Chelsea (23%)
Liverpool (85%)
				Bayern (26%) Liverpool (22%) Man City (18%) Paris SG (14%)
Man City (61%) Real Madrid (39%)
		Bayern (45%) Man City (32%) Real Madrid (17%)
Bayern (79%) Atalanta (21%)
						Arsenal (34%) Bayern (13%) Liverpool (10%) Man City (9%)
Barcelona (59%) Newcastle (41%)
		Barcelona (38%) Newcastle (24%) Atletico (21%) Tottenham (17%)
Atletico (53%) Tottenham (47%)
				Arsenal (55%) Barcelona (15%) Sporting (8%)
Sporting (75%) Bodoe Glimt (25%)
		Arsenal (72%) Sporting (18%)
Arsenal (85%)

Europa League

Pos	Pts	Team	Pts	GD	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
1	21	Lyon	21	18-5	61%	40%	25%	9%
2	21	Aston Villa	21	14-6	84%	63%	48%	36%
3	19	Midtjylland	19	18-8	33%	12%	2.5%	1.2%
4	17	Betis	17	13-7	78%	49%	25%	9%
5	17	Porto	17	13-7	57%	31%	11%	7%
6	17	Braga	17	11-5	79%	39%	17%	5%
7	17	Freiburg	17	10-4	69%	30%	15%	5.0%
8	16	Roma	16	13-6	67%	23%	13%	8%
9	16	Genk	16	11-7	31%	8%	2.9%	< 1%
10	15	Bologna	15	14-7	33%	7%	3.0%	1.5%
11	15	Stuttgart	15	15-9	43%	21%	6%	3.5%
12	15	Ferencvaros	15	12-11	21%	4.9%	< 1%	< 1%
13	14	Forest	14	15-7	67%	37%	13%	8%
14	14	Viktoria Plzen	14	8-3	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
15	14	Crvena Zvezda	14	7-6	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
16	13	Dinamo Zagreb	13	15-13	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
17	12	PAOK	12	17-14	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
18	12	Lille	12	12-9	16%	7%	2.6%	1.3%
19	12	Fenerbahce	12	10-7	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
20	12	Panathinaikos	12	11-9	22%	7%	1.8%	< 1%
21	11	Celtic	11	13-15	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
22	10	Celta	10	12-14	39%	22%	12%	3.7%
23	10	Razgrad	10	12-15	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
24	9	Brann	9	9-11	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Quarter-finals		Semi-finals		Final		Champions
Braga (79%) Ferencvaros (21%)
		Betis (49%) Braga (39%)
Betis (78%) Panathinaikos (22%)
				Betis (25%) Lyon (25%) Braga (17%) Freiburg (15%)
Freiburg (69%) Genk (31%)
		Lyon (40%) Freiburg (30%) Celta (22%)
Lyon (61%) Celta (39%)
						Aston Villa (36%) Lyon (9%) Betis (9%) Roma (8%)
Porto (57%) Stuttgart (43%)
		Forest (37%) Porto (31%) Stuttgart (21%)
Forest (67%) Midtjylland (33%)
				Aston Villa (48%) Forest (13%) Roma (13%)
Roma (67%) Bologna (33%)
		Aston Villa (63%) Roma (23%) Bologna (7%)
Aston Villa (84%)

Conference League

Pos	Pts	Team	Pts	GD	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
1	16	Strasbourg	16	11-5	90%	59%	40%	20%
2	14	Rakow	14	9-2	34%	7%	3.8%	1.4%
3	13	AEK	13	14-7	79%	48%	20%	8%
4	13	Sparta Praha	13	10-3	56%	32%	8%	3.3%
5	13	Rayo Vallecano	13	13-7	76%	39%	15%	6%
6	13	Shakhtar	13	10-5	57%	27%	6%	2.3%
7	13	Mainz	13	7-3	87%	38%	22%	9%
8	12	Larnaca	12	7-1	12%	4.0%	1.8%	< 1%
9	11	Lausanne	11	6-3	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
10	10	Crystal Palace	10	11-6	88%	66%	56%	37%
11	10	Lech	10	12-8	43%	18%	3.3%	1.1%
12	10	Samsunspor	10	10-6	24%	6%	1.1%	< 1%
13	10	Celje	10	8-7	21%	6%	1.1%	< 1%
14	10	Alkmaar	10	7-7	44%	23%	5%	1.9%
15	9	Fiorentina	9	8-5	66%	22%	15%	8%
16	9	Rijeka	9	5-2	10%	2.2%	< 1%	< 1%
17	9	Jagiellonia	9	5-4	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
18	8	Omonia	8	5-4	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
19	8	Noah	8	6-7	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
20	8	Drita	8	4-8	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
21	7	Kuopio	7	6-5	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
22	7	Shkendija	7	4-5	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
23	7	Zrinjski Mostar	7	8-10	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
24	7	Sigma Olomouc	7	7-9	13%	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%

Quarter-finals		Semi-finals		Final		Champions
Shakhtar (57%) Lech (43%)
		Sparta Praha (32%) Shakhtar (27%) Alkmaar (23%) Lech (18%)
Sparta Praha (56%) Alkmaar (44%)
				Crystal Palace (56%) Fiorentina (15%) Sparta Praha (8%)
Crystal Palace (88%)
		Crystal Palace (66%) Fiorentina (22%)
Fiorentina (66%) Rakow (34%)
						Crystal Palace (37%) Strasbourg (20%) Mainz (9%) AEK (8%)
Rayo Vallecano (76%) Samsunspor (24%)
		AEK (48%) Rayo Vallecano (39%)
AEK (79%) Celje (21%)
				Strasbourg (40%) Mainz (22%) AEK (20%) Rayo Vallecano (15%)
Mainz (87%)
		Strasbourg (59%) Mainz (38%)
Strasbourg (90%)

Which countries get extra CL spots

		Score
Country	Probability	Average	Min	Max
ENG	99.92%	20.88	15.11	25.5
GER	30%	15.13	11.57	21.07
ESP	25%	14.96	11.13	20.13
POL	22%	15.11	13.75	19.38
POR	21%	14.65	11.3	20.2
ITA	2.2%	13.73	12.43	17.71
GRE	< 1%	11.83	10.2	15.9
FRA	< 1%	11.76	9.19	16.06

Number of semifinalists from ESP; 278 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4
Probability	8%	29%	37%	21%	5%
Chance if	< 1%	1.9%	20%	58%	90%

Number of semifinalists from GER; 258 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4
Probability	18%	39%	31%	11%	1.7%
Chance if	1.3%	13%	45%	81%	97%

Number of semifinalists from POR; 254 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	35%	45%	18%	2.2%
Chance if	< 1%	15%	63%	95%

Number of quarterfinalists from ESP; 192 mbit

n	1	2	3	4	5	6
Probability	3.9%	16%	31%	31%	15%	2.8%
Chance if	< 1%	1.1%	11%	33%	59%	80%

Number of quarterfinalists from GER; 192 mbit

n	1	2	3	4	5
Probability	6%	25%	42%	24%	3.0%
Chance if	< 1%	5%	27%	60%	82%

Number of quarterfinalists from POL; 189 mbit

n	0	1	2
Probability	38%	48%	15%
Chance if	1.2%	25%	62%

Number of semifinalists from POL; 172 mbit

n	0	1	2
Probability	76%	22%	1.3%
Chance if	10%	57%	98%

Number of quarterfinalists from POR; 167 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	2.3%	18%	46%	34%
Chance if	< 1%	< 1%	11%	46%

Number of finalists from GER; 166 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	45%	41%	13%	1.8%
Chance if	11%	34%	71%	95%

Number of finalists from ESP; 151 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	39%	43%	16%	2.1%
Chance if	6%	26%	58%	87%