CL: Lille going to Bodoe Glimt in psssibly their last chance.

Lille have <10% to proceed to knockout stage unless they manage to win against Bodoe Glimt.  Another important match for who advance to last 24 is when Shakhtar play Sporting in London. Twelve points are almost guaranteed to suffice for last 24, so PSG and Aston Villa can clinch a spot in Top 24.

 

Clinching Scenarios

• Paris Saint-Germain clinch Knockout if they win against Villarreal (55%)
• Aston Villa clinch Knockout if they win against Barcelona (18%)

Pos	Pts	Team	GD	Median Pts	50% CI	Top 24	Top 16	Top 8	R16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
1	9	Real Madrid	+16	19	18-21	>99.99%	99.79%	95%	99.06%	72%	41%	20%	9%
2	9	Paris Saint-Germain	+11	19	16-21	99.99%	99.03%	88%	97.6%	68%	37%	18%	8%
3	7	Arsenal	+9	19	17-20	99.99%	99.39%	88%	98.8%	81%	57%	37%	22%
4	9	Liverpool	+8	18	16-20	99.94%	97.9%	79%	95%	60%	28%	11%	4.5%
5	6	Barcelona	+11	17	15-19	99.83%	96.9%	74%	96.4%	74%	48%	29%	16%
6	5	Bayern Munich	+14	16	14-18	99.54%	95%	64%	95.1%	73%	49%	31%	18%
7	9	Aston Villa	+10	16	14-18	99.89%	95%	63%	89%	48%	19%	6%	2.2%
8	6	Man City	+7	16	14-18	99.31%	92%	57%	93%	67%	42%	24%	13%
9	9	Real Betis	+1	15	13-16	99.29%	86%	36%	69%	22%	5%	1.0%	0.25%
10	7	VfB Stuttgart	+7	13	11-16	95.2%	71%	24%	58%	16%	3.6%	0.65%	0.15%
11	4	Atletico Madrid	+6	13	11-15	94%	69%	22%	71%	32%	13%	4.6%	1.7%
12	3	Inter Milan	+3	13	11-15	93%	66%	18%	73%	36%	17%	7%	2.8%
13	6	Club Brugge	+2	13	11-15	92%	64%	19%	56%	17%	4.4%	0.93%	0.24%
14	6	Borussia Dortmund	+2	13	11-15	95.1%	68%	19%	67%	26%	9%	2.9%	0.92%
15	6	Sporting CP	+3	12	10-14	90%	57%	13%	57%	20%	6%	1.7%	0.50%
16	6	Como	+1	12	10-13	89%	51%	10%	46%	12%	2.7%	0.53%	0.11%
17	4	Roma	+3	11	9-13	82%	43%	7%	47%	15%	4.3%	1.1%	0.29%
18	3	Villarreal	+2	10	9-12	74%	34%	4.4%	33%	7%	1.6%	0.27%	< 0.1%
19	3	Napoli	0	10	9-12	73%	30%	2.6%	34%	8%	2.0%	0.41%	< 0.1%
20	4	PSV Eindhoven	-3	10	8-12	63%	25%	3.1%	25%	4.7%	0.87%	0.13%	< 0.1%
21	3	Man United	-3	10	7-12	62%	24%	2.7%	32%	9%	2.8%	0.67%	0.18%
22	3	Galatasaray	-4	10	8-12	63%	23%	2.2%	27%	6%	1.3%	0.23%	< 0.1%
23	3	RB Leipzig	-4	10	8-12	65%	26%	2.7%	31%	8%	1.9%	0.40%	< 0.1%
24	3	Bodoe Glimt	-7	10	8-12	59%	20%	1.8%	21%	3.6%	0.63%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
25	4	Shakhtar Donetsk	-2	9	7-11	53%	15%	1.2%	12%	1.1%	0.11%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
26	3	Lens	-7	9	7-10	46%	13%	0.89%	18%	4.0%	0.87%	0.15%	< 0.1%
27	0	Porto	-3	8	6-10	38%	8%	0.18%	16%	3.9%	0.99%	0.20%	< 0.1%
28	3	Feyenoord	-5	8	6-10	40%	11%	0.65%	11%	1.5%	0.20%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
29	2	Fenerbahce	-5	8	6-10	39%	9%	0.50%	13%	2.4%	0.43%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
30	1	Viking	-4	7	5-9	28%	4.8%	0.15%	6%	0.66%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
31	3	LASK	-5	7	6-9	29%	4.9%	0.15%	3.6%	0.21%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
32	3	AEK Athens	-12	7	5-9	19%	3.0%	< 0.1%	3.8%	0.38%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
33	0	Lille	-9	6	4-7	12%	1.5%	< 0.1%	3.7%	0.63%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
34	1	Slavia Prague	-11	5	3-6	6%	0.46%	< 0.1%	1.4%	0.21%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
35	3	Sabah	-10	4	3-6	3.7%	0.24%	< 0.1%	0.24%	< 0.1%
36	0	Slovan Bratislava	-20	3	1-4	1.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%

Expected Requirement

	Top 24		Top 16		Top 8
	Pts	GD	Pts	GD	Pts	GD
1%	10	15-14	13	20-14	18	18-12
5%	10	13-15	13	15-12	17	19-10
25%	10	11-20	13	9-13	16	23-15
50%	9	14-17	12	13-11	16	17-13
75%	9	10-17	12	12-15	15	19-11
95%	8	10-14	11	14-14	14	23-12
99%	8	13-22	11	8-14	14	20-16

Important for Top-8
Atletico Madrid vs Bayern Munich (23.6%)
	Home Win (30%)	Draw (21%)	Away Win (49%)
Bayern Munich	37%	59%	82%
Atletico Madrid	46%	17%	9%
Barcelona vs Aston Villa (15.6%)
	Home Win (65%)	Draw (17%)	Away Win (18%)
Barcelona	85%	62%	45%
Aston Villa	54%	70%	89%
Galatasaray vs VfB Stuttgart (10.2%)
	Home Win (47%)	Draw (22%)	Away Win (31%)
VfB Stuttgart	12%	20%	46%
Galatasaray	4.3%	0.7%	0.13%
Villarreal vs Paris Saint-Germain (10.1%)
	Home Win (24%)	Draw (20%)	Away Win (55%)
Paris Saint-Germain	73%	84%	95.4%
Villarreal	14%	3.3%	0.8%
Feyenoord vs Inter Milan (7.3%)
	Home Win (20%)	Draw (20%)	Away Win (60%)
Inter Milan	2.7%	8%	26%
Feyenoord	2.7%	0.4%	< 0.1%
Man United vs Roma (6.8%)
	Home Win (46%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (30%)
Roma	1.9%	4.3%	18%
Man United	5%	1.0%	0.29%
Shakhtar Donetsk vs Sporting CP (5.7%)
	Home Win (22%)	Draw (23%)	Away Win (54%)
Sporting CP	3.1%	7%	20%
Shakhtar Donetsk	4.4%	0.6%	0.21%

Important for Knockout Stage
Bodoe Glimt vs Lille (18.1%)
	Home Win (47%)	Draw (25%)	Away Win (28%)
Bodoe Glimt	77%	50%	35%
Lille	4.1%	9%	30%
Shakhtar Donetsk vs Sporting CP (17.6%)
	Home Win (22%)	Draw (23%)	Away Win (54%)
Shakhtar Donetsk	83%	56%	39%
Sporting CP	74%	86%	98.2%
Man United vs Roma (16.6%)
	Home Win (46%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (30%)
Man United	81%	54%	41%
Roma	71%	84%	96.3%
Galatasaray vs VfB Stuttgart (14%)
	Home Win (47%)	Draw (22%)	Away Win (31%)
Galatasaray	82%	55%	41%
VfB Stuttgart	91%	96.7%	99.96%
Feyenoord vs Inter Milan (12.4%)
	Home Win (20%)	Draw (20%)	Away Win (60%)
Feyenoord	69%	42%	29%
Inter Milan	81%	90%	98.2%
LASK vs Slovan Bratislava (9.1%)
	Home Win (60%)	Draw (20%)	Away Win (20%)
LASK	40%	16%	9%
Slovan Bratislava	0.23%	0.7%	4.4%
Villarreal vs Paris Saint-Germain (6.5%)
	Home Win (24%)	Draw (20%)	Away Win (55%)
Villarreal	93%	77%	65%

 

PL: Brighton hosting Brentford in CL clash

 

Important match for CL race
Brighton vs Brentford (2.4%)
	Home Win (51%)	Draw (23%)	Away Win (26%)
Brighton	82%	74%	68%
Brentford	10%	14%	21%

 

	Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
24	Arsenal	88.3	+48		>99.99%	>99.99%	99.99%	99.94%	74%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	>99.99%
21	Man City	82.1	+45		99.98%	99.93%	99.75%	99.12%	25%	< 0.1%	0.21%	99.76%
15	Liverpool	69.1	+25		95.7%	91%	84%	69%	0.67%	2.8%	12%	84%
19	Brighton	67.2	+30	< 0.1%	93%	87%	77%	60%	0.47%	2.0%	19%	77%
16	Chelsea	62.0	+13	< 0.1%	75%	62%	45%	26%	< 0.1%	9%	29%	44%
12	Aston Villa	61.8	+12	< 0.1%	74%	61%	43%	24%	< 0.1%	9%	30%	44%
12	Bournemouth	57.3	+9	< 0.1%	50%	34%	20%	9%	< 0.1%	12%	23%	35%
14	Brentford	55.4	+9	0.12%	39%	25%	14%	6%	< 0.1%	13%	25%	14%
11	Newcastle	53.8	+1	0.28%	29%	17%	9%	3.6%	< 0.1%	12%	21%	9%
13	Everton	49.4	-5	1.2%	11%	5%	2.4%	0.81%	< 0.1%	11%	9%	2.4%
12	Tottenham	48.8	-6	1.6%	10%	4.8%	2.1%	0.69%		6%	8%	2.1%
11	Leeds	48.8	-3	1.6%	10%	5.0%	2.1%	0.68%	< 0.1%	7%	8%	2.1%
7	Man United	48.4	-3	2.0%	9%	4.7%	2.0%	0.66%		6%	9%	2.2%
7	Crystal Palace	43.7	-18	8%	2.2%	0.93%	0.32%	< 0.1%		6%	3.0%	5%
9	Fulham	43.6	-10	7%	2.2%	0.93%	0.32%	< 0.1%		2.2%	3.1%	0.33%
6	Forest	41.0	-14	15%	0.89%	0.34%	0.10%	< 0.1%		1.0%	1.9%	0.11%
11	Ipswich	35.0	-32	49%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%		< 0.1%	0.26%	< 0.1%
5	Sunderland	32.9	-28	62%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%		0.56%	0.40%	1.3%
9	Coventry	32.6	-35	66%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%		< 0.1%	0.20%	< 0.1%
11	Hull	28.8	-38	86%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%				< 0.1%	< 0.1%

Titles

Team	League	FA Cup	League Cup	Europe
Arsenal	74%	28%		22%
Man City	25%	21%	60%	13%
Liverpool	0.67%	10%	25%	4.5%
Brighton	0.47%	5%		41%
Chelsea	< 0.1%	4.5%
Aston Villa	< 0.1%	7%		2.2%
Bournemouth	< 0.1%	3.9%	5%	19%
Brentford	< 0.1%	3.0%
Newcastle	< 0.1%	3.5%
Everton	< 0.1%	1.6%	4.3%
Tottenham		1.6%
Leeds	< 0.1%	1.6%
Man United		2.8%		0.18%
Crystal Palace		1.5%	4.6%	5%
Fulham		1.4%
Forest		1.2%
Ipswich		0.21%
Sunderland		0.38%	0.52%	1.2%
Coventry		0.19%
Hull		< 0.1%

 Coming Matches

Home		Draw		Away
Everton	61%	23%	16%	Coventry
Leeds	45%	25%	30%	Tottenham
Arsenal	90%	8%	2.4%	Hull
Fulham	36%	25%	39%	Newcastle
Forest	16%	21%	62%	Man City
Brighton	51%	23%	26%	Brentford
Crystal Palace	26%	24%	50%	Liverpool
Ipswich	22%	22%	56%	Bournemouth
Sunderland	23%	25%	51%	Chelsea

Most likely combo of teams in CL

14%	Arsenal, Brighton, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City
14%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Brighton, Liverpool, Man City
6%	Arsenal, Bournemouth, Brighton, Liverpool, Man City
4.6%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Bournemouth, Brighton, Liverpool, Man City
4.6%	Arsenal, Bournemouth, Brighton, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City
4.2%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City
3.6%	Arsenal, Brentford, Brighton, Liverpool, Man City
3.1%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Brighton, Chelsea, Man City
2.4%	Arsenal, Brighton, Liverpool, Man City, Newcastle
2.1%	Arsenal, Bournemouth, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City

Most likely combo of teams being relegated

26%	Coventry, Hull, Sunderland
17%	Coventry, Hull, Ipswich
16%	Hull, Ipswich, Sunderland
6%	Coventry, Ipswich, Sunderland
4.4%	Coventry, Forest, Hull
3.4%	Forest, Hull, Sunderland
2.6%	Forest, Hull, Ipswich
2.3%	Coventry, Crystal Palace, Hull
2.1%	Coventry, Fulham, Hull
1.9%	Crystal Palace, Hull, Sunderland

 

PL: Brighton lose at Anfield

 

Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
21	Arsenal	86.9	+47		>99.99%	>99.99%	99.98%	99.88%	60%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	99.98%
21	Man City	84.2	+47		99.99%	99.97%	99.89%	99.57%	39%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	99.89%
15	Liverpool	70.2	+25		97.0%	94%	88%	76%	1.2%	1.9%	9%	88%
16	Brighton	64.9	+28	< 0.1%	88%	80%	67%	47%	0.23%	3.2%	26%	66%
11	Aston Villa	62.8	+13	< 0.1%	80%	68%	52%	32%	< 0.1%	8%	27%	52%
13	Chelsea	60.7	+12	< 0.1%	70%	56%	39%	22%	< 0.1%	11%	30%	39%
9	Bournemouth	56.1	+8	0.14%	44%	30%	17%	8%	< 0.1%	11%	21%	33%
11	Newcastle	55.6	+3	0.17%	40%	26%	15%	7%	< 0.1%	14%	25%	15%
11	Brentford	54.3	+8	0.25%	34%	21%	12%	5.0%	< 0.1%	14%	22%	12%
11	Leeds	49.7	-1	1.3%	13%	7%	3.3%	1.2%	< 0.1%	8%	10%	3.3%
7	Man United	49.4	-2	1.6%	13%	7%	3.3%	1.2%	< 0.1%	8%	11%	3.5%
9	Tottenham	47.4	-7	3.1%	7%	3.7%	1.6%	0.52%	< 0.1%	5%	7%	1.6%
10	Everton	47.3	-7	2.9%	7%	3.5%	1.5%	0.47%	< 0.1%	6%	6%	1.5%
7	Crystal Palace	44.9	-16	7%	3.5%	1.6%	0.63%	0.18%		4.0%	3.8%	6%
8	Fulham	43.4	-11	9%	2.4%	1.0%	0.38%	0.10%		4.4%	3.1%	0.38%
6	Forest	41.9	-12	13%	1.5%	0.61%	0.21%	< 0.1%		1.5%	2.3%	0.21%
10	Ipswich	35.5	-32	48%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%		0.13%	0.28%	< 0.1%
5	Sunderland	34.2	-26	54%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%		0.30%	0.41%	1.2%
6	Coventry	31.0	-37	75%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%			< 0.1%	0.20%	< 0.1%
10	Hull	29.1	-38	85%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%			< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%

Titles

Team	League	FA Cup	League Cup	Europe
Arsenal	60%	28%	45%	22%
Man City	39%	21%	22%	13%
Liverpool	1.2%	10%	17%	4.5%
Brighton	0.23%	5%	1.5%	41%
Aston Villa	< 0.1%	7%	1.4%	2.2%
Chelsea	< 0.1%	4.5%	3.6%
Bournemouth	< 0.1%	3.9%	1.2%	19%
Newcastle	< 0.1%	3.5%	1.9%
Brentford	< 0.1%	3.0%	2.1%
Leeds	< 0.1%	1.6%
Man United	< 0.1%	2.8%		0.18%
Tottenham	< 0.1%	1.6%
Everton	< 0.1%	1.6%	1.1%
Crystal Palace		1.5%	1.3%	5%
Fulham		1.4%	2.3%
Forest		1.2%
Ipswich		0.21%
Sunderland		0.38%	0.23%	1.2%
Coventry		0.19%
Hull		< 0.1%

 

EL: Favorites likely advancing

The fur favorites: Benfica, Bournemouth, Leverkusen, and Juventus are all doing well and are likely advancing to last 16. 

 

Europa League

Pos	Pts	Team	GD	Median Pts	50% CI	Top 24	Top 16	Top 8	R16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
1	9	Benfica	+16	21	19-22	>99.99%	99.94%	98.0%	99.66%	75%	50%	29%	16%
2	9	Bournemouth	+15	20	18-22	>99.99%	99.87%	96.3%	99.42%	75%	51%	31%	17%
3	9	Bayer Leverkusen	+14	19	17-21	>99.99%	99.59%	92%	98.8%	76%	52%	33%	19%
4	7	Juventus	+10	17	15-19	99.88%	97.0%	75%	95.0%	67%	40%	22%	12%
5	9	Olympiakos	+4	17	15-19	99.91%	96.1%	67%	87%	39%	13%	3.8%	1.2%
6	7	Union Saint-Gilloise	+6	16	14-17	99.51%	92%	56%	89%	56%	29%	14%	7%
7	7	Sunderland	0	16	14-17	99.34%	90%	50%	81%	37%	13%	4.4%	1.5%
8	9	Ferencvaros	+1	15	13-16	99.53%	87%	37%	67%	21%	4.8%	0.99%	0.26%
9	6	Lyon	+1	15	13-16	98.5%	84%	38%	82%	47%	23%	11%	4.9%
10	4	Crystal Palace	+8	14	12-16	97.6%	82%	38%	84%	52%	28%	15%	7%
11	5	Rennes	+7	14	12-16	97.3%	81%	36%	76%	36%	14%	5%	2.0%
12	3	Milan	+3	14	12-16	97.6%	79%	28%	82%	49%	26%	14%	7%
13	7	Besiktas	+4	13	11-15	96.0%	70%	22%	61%	21%	6%	1.6%	0.47%
14	4	Real Sociedad	+7	12	10-14	93%	61%	14%	66%	30%	13%	5%	2.1%
15	6	AZ	+6	12	10-14	93%	62%	16%	54%	17%	4.8%	1.2%	0.35%
16	6	Omonia	+1	11	10-13	84%	43%	7%	36%	8%	1.7%	0.31%	< 0.1%
17	3	Celta Vigo	-2	11	9-13	79%	37%	5%	49%	20%	8%	2.8%	1.1%
18	4	Sturm Graz	-3	11	9-13	79%	34%	4.3%	30%	6%	1.1%	0.19%	< 0.1%
19	4	Red Bull Salzburg	-8	11	9-12	74%	29%	3.1%	31%	7%	1.7%	0.34%	< 0.1%
20	3	TSG Hoffenheim	+1	10	8-12	75%	33%	4.5%	43%	15%	5%	1.8%	0.61%
21	3	Anderlecht	+1	10	8-12	71%	30%	3.5%	31%	8%	1.8%	0.38%	< 0.1%
22	4	NEC	-4	10	8-12	66%	25%	2.9%	19%	2.8%	0.39%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
23	4	Sparta Prague	-1	9	7-11	59%	19%	1.9%	23%	5%	1.2%	0.23%	< 0.1%
24	4	Dinamo Zagreb	-2	9	7-11	58%	18%	2.0%	25%	6%	1.7%	0.38%	0.10%
25	4	Levski Sofia	-2	9	7-11	57%	14%	0.95%	14%	1.8%	0.23%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
26	0	Marseille	0	8	6-10	49%	12%	0.40%	28%	12%	5%	2.0%	0.78%
27	1	Lech Poznan	-8	8	7-10	39%	7%	0.24%	16%	4.1%	1.0%	0.24%	< 0.1%
28	3	Jagiellonia Bialystok	-5	7	6-9	32%	6%	0.38%	9%	1.5%	0.22%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
29	0	Celtic	-8	7	5-9	25%	4.0%	< 0.1%	10%	2.6%	0.65%	0.15%	< 0.1%
30	3	Torreense	-11	7	5-8	19%	2.2%	< 0.1%	1.8%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
31	1	Hapoel Be'er Sheva	-7	6	5-8	16%	1.8%	< 0.1%	4.9%	0.95%	0.17%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
32	3	OFI	-8	6	4-7	16%	1.8%	< 0.1%	1.8%	0.12%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
33	1	Celje	-12	6	4-8	15%	1.8%	< 0.1%	2.1%	0.17%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
34	0	Viktoria Plzen	-8	5	3-7	10%	0.80%	< 0.1%	2.9%	0.58%	0.11%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
35	1	Lillestrom	-14	4	2-5	3.0%	0.17%	< 0.1%	0.40%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
36	0	Ararat-Armenia	-15	4	2-6	4.0%	0.22%	< 0.1%	0.30%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%

Expected Requirement

	Top 24		Top 16		Top 8
	Pts	GD	Pts	GD	Pts	GD
1%	10	11-11	13	17-11	17	27-10
5%	10	9-12	13	15-13	17	14-6
25%	9	11-12	12	13-7	16	15-7
50%	9	10-15	12	9-8	16	10-7
75%	8	10-12	11	15-10	15	15-9
95%	8	6-13	11	14-16	14	17-10
99%	7	10-14	10	11-8	14	8-5

Conference League

Pos	Pts	Team	GD	Median Pts	50% CI	Top 24	Top 16	Top 8	R16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
1	6	Monaco	+5	15	13-15	99.96%	98.2%	84%	97.5%	74%	50%	29%	15%
2	4	Brighton	+9	13	11-14	99.63%	93%	66%	97.0%	84%	70%	56%	39%
3	6	Twente	+8	13	12-15	99.93%	97.4%	75%	91%	46%	18%	6%	1.6%
4	4	Copenhagen	+8	13	11-14	99.63%	93%	65%	88%	49%	22%	8%	2.6%
5	3	Atalanta	+8	13	12-15	99.72%	95.6%	73%	95.7%	73%	50%	30%	15%
6	6	Lugano	+5	13	11-15	99.64%	92%	62%	84%	37%	13%	3.5%	0.88%
7	6	Trabzonspor	+5	12	10-14	99.0%	87%	51%	81%	38%	15%	4.5%	1.3%
8	3	Braga	+3	12	10-13	98.0%	82%	42%	83%	49%	25%	11%	4.2%
9	3	SC Freiburg	+2	12	10-13	97.7%	81%	41%	87%	62%	39%	22%	11%
10	6	Hajduk Split	0	12	10-13	97.8%	77%	37%	64%	20%	4.6%	0.84%	0.16%
11	6	Sint-Truiden	+4	11	10-13	97.2%	74%	36%	66%	24%	7%	1.5%	0.35%
12	1	Midtjylland	+8	10	9-11	96.1%	72%	26%	75%	41%	20%	8%	2.9%
13	6	Panathinaikos	+5	10	9-12	97.7%	73%	27%	68%	28%	10%	3.0%	0.80%
14	4	Mjaellby AIF	+4	10	8-11	96.2%	67%	19%	44%	9%	1.4%	0.18%	< 0.1%
15	6	Brann	+3	10	9-12	95.6%	67%	27%	58%	18%	4.5%	0.85%	0.17%
16	4	Universitatea Craiova	-2	10	8-11	90%	51%	12%	44%	12%	3.0%	0.56%	0.11%
17	3	Gent	-3	10	7-11	85%	49%	14%	51%	19%	6%	1.6%	0.39%
18	3	Ajax	+2	9	7-11	86%	49%	14%	59%	28%	12%	4.2%	1.4%
19	1	Red Star Belgrade	+2	9	7-10	88%	48%	10%	55%	23%	9%	2.8%	0.79%
20	1	Getafe	0	8	7-10	80%	29%	3.3%	51%	25%	11%	4.2%	1.4%
21	2	Nordsjaelland	-1	8	6-9	72%	26%	4.1%	39%	15%	5%	1.4%	0.38%
22	1	Hearts	-1	7	5-8	61%	17%	1.7%	20%	4.4%	0.86%	0.13%	< 0.1%
23	1	AGF	-1	7	5-8	58%	18%	2.3%	26%	8%	2.1%	0.46%	< 0.1%
24	3	Borac Banja Luka	-3	7	5-8	55%	15%	1.7%	13%	1.8%	0.22%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
25	1	Jablonec	-4	7	5-8	53%	14%	1.3%	17%	3.6%	0.68%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
26	2	Riga	0	6	5-8	53%	13%	1.4%	13%	2.1%	0.28%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
27	2	Egnatia	-1	6	5-8	49%	8%	0.54%	7%	0.55%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
28	0	Thun	-1	5	4-7	34%	7%	0.49%	13%	3.2%	0.73%	0.13%	< 0.1%
29	1	CSKA Sofia	-3	5	3-7	29%	4.7%	0.27%	7%	1.1%	0.15%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
30	1	Kairat	-9	4	2-5	11%	0.98%	< 0.1%	1.7%	0.18%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
31	0	KuPS	-6	3	2-5	9%	0.70%	< 0.1%	1.8%	0.26%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
32	0	Kauno Zalgiris	-13	3	1-4	4.4%	0.24%	< 0.1%	0.41%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
33	1	Iberia 1999	-8	2	1-4	4.0%	0.24%	< 0.1%	0.34%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
34	0	Lincoln Red Imps	-7	1	1-3	1.9%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	0.12%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
35	1	Pafos	-10	1	1-2	0.84%	< 0.1%		< 0.1%
36	0	Inter Club d'Escaldes	-12	1	0-3	0.87%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%

Expected Requirement

	Top 24		Top 16		Top 8
	Pts	GD	Pts	GD	Pts	GD
1%	8	7-7	11	8-7	13	15-5
5%	8	6-10	10	12-8	13	13-6
25%	7	6-7	10	14-13	13	11-7
50%	7	5-9	10	9-11	12	14-7
75%	6	5-6	9	9-7	12	9-5
95%	6	7-15	8	14-7	11	10-4
99%	5	7-10	8	8-7	11	11-8

Which countries get extra CL spots

		Score
Country	Probability	Average	Min	Max
England	96.0%	25.8	16.86	33.42
Germany	44%	21.92	12.52	31.25
Spain	28%	21.22	13.2	30.17
Italy	22%	20.79	11.5	31.21
Portugal	4.5%	18.6	10.05	28.9
France	2.9%	18.36	10.46	28.86
Belgium	1.9%	17.46	8.13	27.85
Denmark	0.27%	15.88	7.5	25.78
Netherlands	< 0.1%	15.35	8.33	25.21
Turkey	< 0.1%	14.35	7.7	24.95

Number of quarterfinalists from Germany; 209 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4	5
Probability	0.85%	8%	28%	38%	20%	4.4%
Chance if	0.5%	4.7%	20%	47%	76%	93%

Number of quarterfinalists from Spain; 183 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
Probability	1.2%	11%	31%	34%	18%	5%	0.71%
Chance if	0.2%	2.2%	10%	29%	56%	80%	94%

Number of quarterfinalists from Italy; 173 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4	5
Probability	1.7%	12%	32%	34%	16%	3.3%
Chance if	< 0.1%	1.3%	7%	24%	53%	81%

Number of semifinalists from Germany; 173 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4
Probability	10%	34%	37%	16%	2.3%
Chance if	8%	25%	52%	79%	96%

Number of teams in last-16 stage from Germany; 164 mbit

n	2	3	4	5	6	7
Probability	0.84%	8%	27%	39%	22%	3.6%
Chance if	0.6%	6%	22%	47%	72%	89%

Number of teams in last-16 stage from Spain; 146 mbit

n	2	3	4	5	6	7	8
Probability	0.64%	5%	19%	32%	29%	12%	1.8%
Chance if	0.1%	1.4%	7%	19%	39%	62%	82%

Number of semifinalists from Spain; 145 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4
Probability	16%	43%	31%	9%	1.2%
Chance if	4.9%	17%	41%	70%	92%

Number of teams in last-16 stage from Italy; 139 mbit

n	2	3	4	5	6	7
Probability	1.3%	9%	29%	38%	19%	2.9%
Chance if	< 0.1%	1.1%	7%	23%	49%	73%

Number of semifinalists from Italy; 138 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4
Probability	16%	39%	33%	11%	1.5%
Chance if	3.0%	11%	30%	59%	87%

Number of finalists from Germany; 101 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	32%	44%	20%	3.3%
Chance if	23%	44%	68%	88%