World Cup Qualifications March 2013. After last week's World Cup qualifiers I spent some CPU cycles simulating the remaining games. I simulated each game a million times weighting the strength of teams ELO score. I noticed that the winners in March were Venezuela, Bosnia, and Panama that increased their chances significantly. Likewise Uruguay, Jamaica, and Greece experienced some bad results, and Uruguay for example went from 60% chance to 30%. Azerbaijan, Georgia, Moldova, and Lesotho lost any reasonable chance (P<10e-6). The Oceanic region was finalized where Solomon Islands and Tahiti were knocked out. New Zealand won the region and will play against the 5th team from Asia. The table below shows the chances for all remaining teams and third and fourth column show how the chances have changed last month and last six months, respectively. The right panel shows the same thing for chances to win the whole cup in Brazil.

Country	Qualify(%)	Mar-01	Oct-01	Champion	Mar-01	Oct-01
Brazil	100	+0	+0	25.6	+0	+8.8
Argentina	99.9999	+0.0029	+0.1699	8	+0	-0.9
Netherlands	99.991	+0.591	+5.791	4.8	+0	-0.3
Spain	99.57	+0.32	-0.03	30	+0	-4.1
Colombia	99.49	+0.08	+2.36	1.43	-0.01	-0.24
Germany	99.28	+0.75	+2.24	13.1	+0.1	-1.3
Japan	99.24	-0.45	+0.35	0.37	-0.02	-0.05
Russia	99.01	+1.48	+18.61	1.29	+0.04	+0.11
Ecuador	98.85	+1.98	+9.15	0.61	+0.01	-0.06
Mexico	96.89	-1.56	-2.62	2.3	+0.02	-0.26
South Korea	96.06	+0.96	-2.37	0.25	+0.01	-0.03
Italy	95.4	+0.7	+11.7	1.83	+0.01	+0.1
Switzerland	94.8	+2.2	+16.3	0.24	+0	+0.01
England	93.2	-3.08	-2.96	4.5	-0.1	-0.7
Australia	90.2	-4.7	+4.1	0.12	-0.02	-0.01
Croatia	88.7	+7.3	+7	0.83	+0.07	-0.02
Ivory Coast	88.4	+3.4	+5.5	0.67	+0.04	-0.02
United States	84.4	+10.4	+4.9	0.08	+0.01	+0
Chile	77	+5.6	+2.6	0.23	+0.02	-0.04
Egypt	74.7	+3.1	+4.1	0.024	+0.003	+0.001
Iran	73.7	-1.2	-10	0.015	+0.004	-0.004
Portugal	73.6	-2.9	-14.6	1.95	-0.08	-0.68
Bosnia and Herzegov	70.2	+22.1	+28.4	0.033	+0.011	+0.011
France	68.5	-1.3	+10.2	0.49	-0.02	+0.02
Greece	67.7	-13.9	-7.7	0.15	-0.04	-0.04
Sweden	65.5	-1	+3.9	0.68	+0	-0.02
Honduras	56.9	-8.7	+20.1	0.008	+0	+0.003
Tunisia	56.5	+0.9	+1.3	0.001	+0	+0
Venezuela	55.7	+17.9	+33.1	0.023	+0.004	+0.011
Panama	55.7	+11.3	-4.4	0.007	+0.001	-0.002
Nigeria	51.8	-8	-7.3	0.002	+0.001	-0.001
Belgium	50.5	+5.8	+3.6	0.08	+0.01	+0
Costa Rica	47.6	+4.4	+10.7	0.003	-0.001	-0.001
Uzbekistan	46	+1.9	+26.1	0.002	+0.001	+0.001
Ghana	38.7	+14.1	+13.4	0.005	+0.001	+0.002
New Zealand	36.4	+1.2	+2.5	0.0004	+0	+0
Mali	32.2	+3.7	+2.5	0.0004	-0.0006	-0.0006
Uruguay	29.9	-30	-51.7	0.15	-0.15	-0.35
Zambia	25.3	-10.6	-10.2	0.001	+0	+0.0006
Romania	24.4	-2.2	+1.9	0.029	-0.002	+0
South Africa	23.8	+0.7	-0.1	0.0001	+0.0001	+0
Cameroon	23	+5.4	+5.5	0.0001	-0.0003	+0
Jamaica	22.1	-16.6	-9.2	0.001	+0	+0
Norway	19.3	-12.8	-17.9	0.007	-0.003	-0.011
Montenegro	17.8	+6.8	+14.35	0.001	+0.0008	+0.0007
Senegal	17.3	+0.7	+1.6	0.0001	+0	+0
Algeria	16.7	+0.2	+0.6	0.0001	+0	+0
Czechia	13.5	-10.7	-14	0.018	-0.016	-0.032
Libya	12.6	-3.7	-4.3	0	-0.0002	-0.0001
Denmark	11.8	-0.1	-19.1	0.02	+0	-0.03
Ukraine	11.3	+7	-6.2	0.006	+0.004	-0.004
Gabon	10.1	-8.1	-8.1	0	+0	+0
Iraq	9.8	+1.3	-2.5	0.0001	+0	+0
Peru	9.2	+4	+0	0.003	+0.001	-0.002
Serbia	7	-3.1	-3.6	0.001	-0.001	-0.001
Hungary	6.5	+0.1	+1.4	0.001	+0	+0
Oman	6	+0.9	+0.5	0	+0	+0
Jordan	5.7	+4.35	-4.5	0	-0.0001	-0.0001
Poland	5.5	-5.5	-5.1	0.001	-0.002	-0.001
Angola	5.2	+1.56	+1.11	0	+0	-0.0001
Bulgaria	5.1	+2.64	+1.9	0.0003	+0.0001	+0.0001
Burkina Faso	4.8	+2.53	+2.3	0	+0	+0
Congo	4.3	+2.14	+2.23	0	+0	+0
Uganda	4	-4	-4.4	0	+0	+0
Ethiopia	3.67	+0.45	+0.56	0	+0	+0
Ireland	3.56	-1.24	-3.84	0.002	+0	-0.002
Malawi	2.71	+1.82	+1.69	0	+0	+0
Iceland	2.26	+1.93	+1.76	0	+0	+0
Qatar	2.06	-0.9	-6.74	0	+0	+0
Israel	1.81	+0.6	-0.79	0.0001	+0.0001	+0
Democratic Republic	1.2	-0.72	-0.66	0	+0	+0
Albania	1.18	+1.02	+0.89	0	+0	+0
Slovakia	0.97	-1.54	-8.43	0	-0.0001	-0.0003
Guinea	0.77	-0.98	-1.53	0	+0	+0
Paraguay	0.66	-1.29	-0.57	0.0002	-0.0001	-0.0008
Turkey	0.6	-0.08	-11	0.0001	-0.0001	-0.0059
Central African Rep	0.54	-0.79	-0.79	0	+0	+0
Bolivia	0.51	-0.28	+0.22	0	+0	+0
Benin	0.5	-0.97	-0.97	0	+0	+0
Austria	0.4	+0.27	-0.16	0	+0	+0
Liberia	0.37	+0.3	+0.29	0	+0	+0
Finland	0.31	+0.13	-0.67	0	+0	-0.0001
Slovenia	0.24	-0.76	-9.56	0	-0.0001	-0.0004
Sierra Leone	0.19	-0.38	-0.45	0	+0	+0
Morocco	0.17	-1.6	-2.47	0	+0	-0.0001
Namibia	0.16	-0.14	-0.14	0	+0	+0
Kenya	0.16	+0.08	+0.06	0	+0	+0
Lithuania	0.14	-0.01	-0.38	0	+0	+0
Niger	0.11	-0.31	-0.37	0	+0	+0
Scotland	0.06	-1.57	-2.55	0	+0	-0.0004
Togo	0.06	-0.07	-0.1	0	+0	+0
Latvia	0.05	-0.1	-0.89	0	+0	+0
Equatorial Guinea	0.04	+0.016	+0.006	0	+0	+0
Botswana	0.04	-0.19	-0.21	0	+0	+0
Tanzania	0.039	+0.029	+0.028	0	+0	+0
Wales	0.031	-0.059	-0.089	0	+0	+0
Rwanda	0.014	-0.116	-0.146	0	+0	+0
Cyprus	0.013	+0.004	-0.147	0	+0	+0
Cape Verde	0.007	-0.203	-0.263	0	+0	+0
Armenia	0.005	-0.045	-0.125	0	+0	+0
New Caledonia	0.004	-0.546	-2.096	0	+0	+0
Zimbabwe	0.004	-0.026	-0.046	0	+0	+0
Sudan	0.003	-0.047	-0.077	0	+0	+0
Mozambique	0.002	-0.006	-0.007	0	+0	+0
Gambia	0.001	-0.004	-0.007	0	+0	+0
Belarus	0.001	-0.002	-0.249	0	+0	+0
Macedonia	0.001	-0.049	-0.049	0	+0	+0
Lebanon	0.001	-0.01	-0.129	0	+0	+0
Northern Ireland	0.0004	-0.0016	-0.0186	0	+0	+0
Estonia	0.0001	-0.0002	-0.0499	0	+0	+0