World Cup After Finals Draw

My apologies. I did not predict that FIFA would change the rules and not put France in a special pot as Serbia and Montenegro was 2006. I did not take into account that someone would France would be that influential.

For which countries was the draw good or bad? By simulating the World Cup first simulating the draw as well, and then using the actual draw, we can infer if the draw did change the chances for any countries.

The draw was good for:

Country	Pre	Post	Ratio
South Korea	19.0	32.5	1.7
Algeria	9.7	14.4	1.5
Russia	51.9	74.1	1.4
Mexico	10.6	41.1	1.3

and the draw was not as good for

Country	Pre	Post	Ratio
Australia	24.0	8.31	0.34
Ghana	26.8	15.6	0.58
Chile	55.9	34.5	0.62
Costa Rica	27.3	17.3	0.63

We can then look at each group. If we sum up the teams' chances to pass on to the knock-out stage, it's obviously 200% for the Post probabilities. If we instead calculate the sum of the pre-probabilities, it gives us an idea of how difficult the group is. If, for example, four teams that had 99% probability to survive group stage before the draw are drawn together in one group, the sum will be 396%, well above the 200% you'd expect on an average draw.

Doing this we'll see that the toughest group is Group B with a sum of 254%. Group B contains both finalists from last World Cup, Spain and Netherlands, plus Chile a strong contender from South America. The next toughest group is then Group D with sum 241%, which contains England, Uruguay, Italy, Costa Rica.



Group A

	2nd Rnd	Change	Champ	Change
Brazil	96.8	2.4	21.8	-1.8
Croatia	51.9	6.6	0.34	-0.02
Mexico	41.1	10.6	0.17	0.03
Cameroon	10.2	0.2	0.0020	-0.0010

Pre-probability Sum: 180%

Group B

	2nd Rnd	Change	Champ	Change
Spain	87.8	-5.9	22.4	-0.7
Netherlands	69.4	-11.4	6.67	-1.03
Chile	34.5	-21.4	0.98	-0.51
Australia	8.31	-15.69	0.024	-0.036

Pre-probability Sum: 254%


Group C

	2nd Rnd	Change	Champ	Change
Colombia	72.6	-0.8	1.98	-0.33
Greece	49.4	0.3	0.43	-0.07
Ivory Coast	48.5	7.6	0.41	0.01
Japan	29.6	2.3	0.085	-0.015

Pre-probability Sum: 191%

Group D

	2nd Rnd	Change	Champ	Change
England	68.3	-5.0	3.77	-0.28
Uruguay	58.3	-16.3	2.09	-0.52
Italy	56.1	-9.5	1.83	-0.31
Costa Rica	17.3	-10.0	0.066	-0.034

Pre-probability Sum: 241%

Group E

	2nd Rnd	Change	Champ	Change
France	66.5	6.7	1.61	0.29
Switzerland	60.1	-0.9	1.07	0.12
Ecuador	54.7	9.7	0.77	0.20
Honduras	18.6	-0.1	0.027	0.007

Pre-probability Sum: 185%

Group F

	2nd Rnd	Change	Champ	Change
Argentina	91.6	5.0	10.1	1.7
B&H	47.8	5.8	0.34	0.09
Nigeria	32.3	6.9	0.10	0.03
Iran	28.4	6.2	0.066	0.026

 Pre-probability Sum: 176%

Group G

	2nd Rnd	Change	Champ	Change
Germany	88.1	-2.6	17.4	2.2
Portugal	50.1	-12.0	1.66	0.08
United States	46.2	-4.8	1.36	0.23
Ghana	15.6	-11.2	0.076	-0.004

Pre-probability Sum: 231%

Group H

	2nd Rnd	Change	Champ	Change
Belgium	78.9	16.7	1.36	0.32
Russia	74.1	22.2	0.94	0.27
South Korea	32.5	13.5	0.043	0.019
Algeria	14.4	4.7	0.0047	0.0017

Pre-probability Sum: 143%