With coming world cup qualification matches the next few day, I had a look at the standing of the qualification so far. The tables below show the standing with matches played, goal difference, points, average final points in the simulations, followed by the estimated chance the team has to reach each round (or better).
CONCACAF
Here they have already reach round 4, which will be completed in September. From the three groups the top two teams will continue to the next round, in which these six team will play a double round robin in a single group. At the moment, only Mexico has clinched a spot in in round 5.
|
| Group A | m | +/- | points | avg. simulated p | Round 5 | Playoff | World Cup |
| Mexico | 4 | +10 | 12 | 17.1 | 100% | 99% | 99% |
| Honduras | 4 | -1 | 4 | 6.0 | 48.0% | 10.3% | 5.5% |
| -------------------- |
| Canada | 4 | -4 | 4 | 7.1 | 49.3% | 10.3% | 5.3% |
| El Salvador | 4 | -5 | 2 | 3.2 | 2.7% | 0.21% | 0.07% |
| Group B | m | +/- | points | avg. simulated p | Round 5 | Playoff | World Cup |
| Costa Rica | 4 | +5 | 10 | 14.1 | 99.9% | 93.9% | 89.8% |
| Panama | 4 | +2 | 7 | 9.8 | 86.5% | 60.0% | 45.8% |
| -------------------- |
| Jamaica | 4 | -4 | 4 | 6.7 | 13.2% | 5.3% | 3.0% |
| Haiti | 4 | -3 | 1 | 2.6 | 0.33% | 0.07% | 0.03% |
| Group C | m | +/- | points | avg. simulated p | Round 5 | Playoff | World Cup |
| Trinidad and T | 4 | +8 | 10 | 12.5 | 84.8% | 29.6% | 18.0% |
| United States | 4 | +7 | 7 | 12.0 | 95.3% | 87.0% | 81.4% |
| -------------------- |
| Guatemala | 4 | +1 | 6 | 9.5 | 19.9% | 4.0% | 2.0% |
| Saint Vincent | 4 | -16 | 0 | 0.5 | - |
SOUTH AMERICA
A third of the matches have been played. Four teams qualify directly and a 5th team plays a playoff against a team from Oceania.
| Group | m | +/- | points | avg. simulated p | Playoff | World Cup |
| Uruguay | 6 | +8 | 13 | 31.0 | 83.0% | 81.6% |
| Ecuador | 6 | +5 | 13 | 28.6 | 59.3% | 57.2% |
| Argentina | 6 | +2 | 11 | 37.2 | 99% | 99% |
| Chile | 6 | +2 | 10 | 34.2 | 95.3% | 95.1% |
| -------------------- |
| Colombia | 6 | +1 | 10 | 30.5 | 77.9% | 76.8% |
| ======== |
| Brazil | 6 | +3 | 9 | 30.2 | 77.0% | 76.2% |
| Paraguay | 6 | +1 | 9 | 20.0 | 4.0% | 3.4% |
| Peru | 6 | -6 | 4 | 20.0 | 4.7% | 4.3% |
| Bolivia | 6 | -6 | 3 | 9.3 | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Venezuela | 6 | -10 | 1 | 10.4 | 0.01% | 0.01% |
EUROPE
The nine group winners are directly qualified, and the eight best runner-ups play playoff.
|
| Group A | m | +/- | points | avg. simulated p | Playoff | World Cup |
| France | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23.0 | 91.6% | 84.6% |
| -------------------- |
| Netherlands | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21.4 | 82.4% | 68.7% |
| ======== |
| Sweden | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15.7 | 15.8% | 8.8% |
| Bulgaria | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11.1 | 1.6% | 0.55% |
| Belarus | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11.1 | 1.6% | 0.55% |
| Luxembourg | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.9 | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Group B | m | +/- | points | avg. simulated p | Playoff | World Cup |
| Portugal | 0 | 0 | 0 | 24.8 | 94.4% | 88.9% |
| -------------------- |
| Switzerland | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21.0 | 67.1% | 43.3% |
| ======== |
| Hungary | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18.9 | 34.6% | 17.9% |
| Latvia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12.7 | 1.6% | 0.32% |
| Faroe Islands | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.8 | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| Andorra | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.1 | - |
| Group C | m | +/- | points | avg. simulated p | Playoff | World Cup |
| Germany | 0 | 0 | 0 | 25.8 | 99% | 97.1% |
| -------------------- |
| Northern Irela | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16.0 | 20.7% | 6.7% |
| ======== |
| Czechia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18.1 | 45.6% | 19.7% |
| Norway | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15.8 | 19.5% | 6.2% |
| Azerbaijan | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9.4 | 0.38% | 0.04% |
| San Marino | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | - |
| Group D | m | +/- | points | avg. simulated p | Playoff | World Cup |
| Serbia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16.9 | 39.0% | 27.0% |
| -------------------- |
| Ireland | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18.0 | 51.1% | 38.4% |
| ======== |
| Austria | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16.5 | 34.2% | 22.9% |
| Wales | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18.7 | 58.5% | 46.1% |
| Georgia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8.9 | 1.1% | 0.44% |
| Moldova | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5.2 | 0.06% | 0.02% |
| Group E | m | +/- | points | avg. simulated p | Playoff | World Cup |
| Poland | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20.5 | 78.6% | 67.3% |
| -------------------- |
| Romania | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17.0 | 42.7% | 27.5% |
| ======== |
| Montenegro | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11.2 | 4.9% | 2.0% |
| Armenia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10.3 | 3.1% | 1.2% |
| Denmark | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17.9 | 53.1% | 36.5% |
| Kazakhstan | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7.1 | 0.39% | 0.11% |
| Group F | m | +/- | points | avg. simulated p | Playoff | World Cup |
| England | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23.1 | 91.5% | 85.2% |
| -------------------- |
| Slovakia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18.5 | 52.4% | 31.9% |
| ======== |
| Scotland | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17.0 | 33.3% | 17.7% |
| Slovenia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13.9 | 10.5% | 4.1% |
| Lithuania | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8.8 | 0.51% | 0.10% |
| Malta | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.6 | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Group G | m | +/- | points | avg. simulated p | Playoff | World Cup |
| Italy | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23.4 | 94.3% | 83.3% |
| -------------------- |
| Spain | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23.2 | 93.6% | 81.4% |
| ======== |
| Albania | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14.4 | 6.2% | 2.4% |
| Israel | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12.6 | 2.4% | 0.72% |
| Macedonia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8.7 | 0.16% | 0.02% |
| Liechtenstein | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.2 | - |
| Group H | m | +/- | points | avg. simulated p | Playoff | World Cup |
| Bosnia and Her | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20.5 | 74.3% | 45.9% |
| -------------------- |
| Belgium | 0 | 0 | 0 | 24.0 | 94.9% | 86.8% |
| ======== |
| Greece | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16.1 | 19.5% | 7.5% |
| Estonia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11.7 | 2.3% | 0.48% |
| Cyprus | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10.2 | 0.93% | 0.16% |
| Gibraltar | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Group I | m | +/- | points | avg. simulated p | Playoff | World Cup |
| Iceland | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15.6 | 28.4% | 19.1% |
| -------------------- |
| Turkey | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18.2 | 55.2% | 43.5% |
| ======== |
| Croatia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19.4 | 67.5% | 57.6% |
| Ukraine | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15.5 | 27.1% | 18.2% |
| Kosovo | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5.3 | 0.08% | 0.02% |
| Finland | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10.1 | 2.6% | 1.2% |
AFRICA
Five groups and each group winner qualifies for the world cup.
|
| Group A | m | +/- | points | avg. simulated p | World Cup |
| Guinea | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8.3 | 24.6% |
| ======== |
| Democratic Rep | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8.6 | 27.2% |
| Libya | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7.1 | 14.7% |
| Tunisia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9.1 | 33.5% |
| Group B | m | +/- | points | avg. simulated p | World Cup |
| Cameroon | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9.1 | 27.8% |
| ======== |
| Nigeria | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9.2 | 29.0% |
| Algeria | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10.0 | 39.3% |
| Zambia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5.1 | 3.9% |
| Group C | m | +/- | points | avg. simulated p | World Cup |
| Ivory Coast | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11.9 | 65.0% |
| ======== |
| Morocco | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8.2 | 16.5% |
| Gabon | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5.3 | 3.7% |
| Mali | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8.0 | 14.8% |
| Group D | m | +/- | points | avg. simulated p | World Cup |
| Burkina Faso | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5.9 | 5.9% |
| ======== |
| Senegal | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11.2 | 55.8% |
| South Africa | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9.3 | 28.2% |
| Cape Verde | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7.0 | 10.1% |
| Group E | m | +/- | points | avg. simulated p | World Cup |
| Egypt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10.4 | 43.7% |
| ======== |
| Uganda | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.9 | 10.2% |
| Ghana | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10.2 | 40.4% |
| Congo | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5.8 | 5.7% |
ASIA
Asia has 4 1/2 teams in the world cup, which means top 2 in both groups get a spot in the world cup and the teams that finish third compete (in Round 4) about a spot in the intercontinental playoff.
|
| Group A | m | +/- | points | avg. simulated p | Round 4 | Playoff | World Cup |
| South Korea | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19.6 | 92.8% | 90.3% | 87.7% |
| Uzbekistan | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14.6 | 60.5% | 49.4% | 40.9% |
| -------------------- |
| Iran | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17.6 | 84.3% | 78.9% | 73.7% |
| ======== |
| China | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11.5 | 27.1% | 18.4% | 13.6% |
| Qatar | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10.8 | 21.8% | 14.3% | 10.3% |
| Syria | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9.5 | 13.5% | 8.0% | 5.5% |
| Group B | m | +/- | points | avg. simulated p | Round 4 | Playoff | World Cup |
| United Arab Em | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13.3 | 47.4% | 30.4% | 24.0% |
| Saudi Arabia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12.5 | 38.3% | 23.0% | 17.8% |
| -------------------- |
| Japan | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20.0 | 94.2% | 90.6% | 88.2% |
| ======== |
| Australia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18.4 | 88.4% | 81.6% | 77.5% |
| Thailand | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8.9 | 10.8% | 4.6% | 3.3% |
| Iraq | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10.6 | 20.9% | 10.6% | 7.8% |
OCEANIA
Group winners play against each other in a final, and the winner of the final plays against 5th team from South America.
|
| Group A | m | +/- | points | avg. simulated p | Final | Playoff | World Cup |
| New Zealand | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8.5 | 77.7% | 70.3% | 6.3% |
| ======== |
| New Caledonia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4.6 | 14.0% | 9.4% | 0.15% |
| Fiji | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.7 | 8.2% | 4.8% | 0.05% |
| Group B | m | +/- | points | avg. simulated p | Final | Playoff | World Cup |
| Tahiti | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.5 | 49.0% | 9.3% | 0.08% |
| ======== |
| Papua New Guin | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5.1 | 26.8% | 3.4% | 0.02% |
| Solomon Island | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4.9 | 24.2% | 2.8% | 0.01% |
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