World Cup: Greatest Surprises

If we look back at the predictions before the tournament, it is interesting to compare the predicted outcome back then with the actual outcome. Sometimes surprises grow into favorites during the tournament and does not feel like surprises afterwards.

5. Belgium to semi-final (20%)

Belgium were big favorites (80%) in their group together with England, and were also expected to pass the stage of 16 (50%), but then the predictions were that opposition in quarter-final from either big favourites Brazil or Germany would be to tough. Belgium had a predicted chance of 20% to reach semi-final.

4. Russia to quarter-final (20%)

As a host nation Russia was seeded and ended up with an relatively easy draw. They advanced through the group as expected (66%) together with Uruguay. In stage of 16 they met one the tournament's favorites, Spain, and were predicted only small chances (21%). Beforehand, Russia were given 20% chance to reach quarter-final.


3. Sweden to quarter-final (10%)

Sweden were ranked third in their group after Germany and Mexico with 35% chance to survive the group. After winning against Mexico in the last match they won the group and ended up against Switzerland in the round of 16, in which they were given 40% to win. Beforehand, they were given 10% chance to reach the quarter-final.

2. France winning the tournament (6%)

Before the tournament France was ranked 6th after Brazil, Germany, Spain, Portugal and Argentina with 6% chance to win the tournament. Everyone expected France to most likely survive the group easily (76%) and likewise it was not a surprise to see them in the quarter-final (48%). They were given a 27% chance to reach semi-final and 13% chance to reach the final.

1. Croatia to the final (3%)

Croatia was mentioned as a dark horse before the tournament. They were given 10% chance to achieve the same success as 20 years ago with a semi-final. The draw had given them one of the toughest groups with Argentina, Iceland and Nigeria. Perhaps sounds easy now, but before the tournament it was labeled the group of death and compared with the original group of death from 2002 (Argentina, England, Nigeria and Sweden). Croatia were given 56% chance to survive this group. After the group they were predicted high risk of meeting France in the round of 16 and were therefore only given 25% chance to reach the quarter-final, but as they won the group they could avoid that and ended up against Denmark instead where they were given a 51% chance. Before the tournament they were predicted a 3% chance to reach all the way to the World Cup Final.

World Cup: Predictions semi-finals

Country	Semi	Final	Champions
France	100%	56%	34%
England	100%	61%	29%
Belgium	100%	44%	23%
Croatia	100%	39%	15%

Semi-finals	Final	World Champions
France (100%)	-	-
-	France (56%) Belgium (44%)	-
Belgium (100%)	-	-
-	-	France (34%) England (29%) Belgium (23%) Croatia (15%)
Croatia (100%)	-	-
-	England (61%) Croatia (39%)	-
England (100%)	-	-

World Cup: Predictions of the Quarter-finals

Country	Quarter	Semi	Final	Champions
Brazil	100%	73%	52%	40%
England	100%	67%	43%	16%
France	100%	61%	24%	15%
Croatia	100%	58%	26%	8%
Belgium	100%	27%	13%	7%
Uruguay	100%	39%	11%	6%
Sweden	100%	33%	15%	4%
Russia	100%	42%	16%	4%

Quarter-finals	Semi-finals	Final	World Champions
Uruguay (100%)	-	-	-
-	France (61%) Uruguay (39%)	-	-
France (100%)	-	-	-
-	-	Brazil (52%) France (24%) Belgium (13%)	-
Brazil (100%)	-	-	-
-	Brazil (73%) Belgium (27%)	-	-
Belgium (100%)	-	-	-
-	-	-	Brazil (40%) England (16%) France (15%) Croatia (8%)
Croatia (100%)	-	-	-
-	Croatia (58%) Russia (42%)	-	-
Russia (100%)	-	-	-
-	-	England (43%) Croatia (26%) Russia (16%)	-
Sweden (100%)	-	-	-
-	England (67%) Sweden (33%)	-	-
England (100%)	-	-	-