in silico soccer: January 2019

Tuesday, January 22, 2019

Asian Cup: Quarterfinals

Predictions of the quarterfinals.

Quarter-finals	Semi-finals	Final	Champions
China (100%)	-	-	-
-	Iran (82%) China (18%)	-	-
Iran (100%)	-	-	-
-	-	Iran (53%) Japan (40%)	-
Vietnam (100%)	-	-	-
-	Japan (88%)	-	-
Japan (100%)	-	-	-
-	-	-	Iran (33%) South Korea (24%) Japan (20%) Australia (16%)
South Korea (100%)	-	-	-
-	South Korea (78%) Qatar (22%)	-	-
Qatar (100%)	-	-	-
-	-	South Korea (47%) Australia (35%) United Arab Emirates (11%)	-
United Arab Emirates (100%)	-	-	-
-	Australia (68%) United Arab Emirates (32%)	-	-
Australia (100%)	-	-	-

Thursday, January 17, 2019

Asian Cup: Predictions of knock-out stage

Qatar won the group final against Saudi with 2-0. They will Iraq in next round while Saudi will face Japan. Lebanon ranked 5th of the thirds after Vietnam with same points, goal difference and scored goals, but with Vietnam with better fair play record.

Group E	Pld	GF	GA	GD	Pts	Last 16	Group Winner	Runner up
Qatar	3	10	0	+10	9	100%	100%	< 1%
Saudi Arabia	3	6	2	+4	6	100%	< 1%	100%
Lebanon	3	4	5	-1	3	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
North Korea	3	1	14	-13	0	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Japan won the group final and will play Saudi, while Uzbekistan play Australia. Oman ranked 3rd of the thirds and will face Iran in the next round.

Group F	Pld	GF	GA	GD	Pts	Last 16	Group Winner	Runner up
Japan	3	6	3	+3	9	100%	100%	< 1%
Uzbekistan	3	7	3	+4	6	100%	< 1%	100%
Oman	3	3	3	0	3	100%	< 1%	< 1%
Turkmenistan	3	2	9	-7	0	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Here's the predicted bracket:

Last 16	Quarter-finals	Semi-finals	Final	Champions
Thailand (100%)	-	-	-	-
-	China (66%) Thailand (34%)	-	-	-
China (100%)	-	-	-	-
-	-	Iran (69%) China (15%)	-	-
Iran (100%)	-	-	-	-
-	Iran (81%) Oman (19%)	-	-	-
Oman (100%)	-	-	-	-
-	-	-	Iran (49%) Japan (28%) Saudi Arabia (8%)	-
Jordan (100%)	-	-	-	-
-	Jordan (63%) Vietnam (37%)	-	-	-
Vietnam (100%)	-	-	-	-
-	-	Japan (56%) Saudi Arabia (23%) Jordan (15%)	-	-
Japan (100%)	-	-	-	-
-	Japan (67%) Saudi Arabia (33%)	-	-	-
Saudi Arabia (100%)	-	-	-	-
-	-	-	-	Iran (31%) South Korea (23%) Japan (15%) Australia (13%)
South Korea (100%)	-	-	-	-
-	South Korea (85%)	-	-	-
Bahrain (100%)	-	-	-	-
-	-	South Korea (64%) Iraq (19%)	-	-
Qatar (100%)	-	-	-	-
-	Iraq (57%) Qatar (43%)	-	-	-
Iraq (100%)	-	-	-	-
-	-	-	South Korea (41%) Australia (27%) United Arab Emirates (12%)	-
United Arab Emirates (100%)	-	-	-	-
-	United Arab Emirates (81%) Kyrgyzstan (19%)	-	-	-
Kyrgyzstan (100%)	-	-	-	-
-	-	Australia (49%) United Arab Emirates (31%) Uzbekistan (18%)	-	-
Australia (100%)	-	-	-	-
-	Australia (67%) Uzbekistan (33%)	-	-	-
Uzbekistan (100%)	-	-	-	-

Wednesday, January 16, 2019

Asian Cup: Which thirds advance?

Group D	Pld	GF	GA	GD	Pts	Last 16
Bahrain	3	2	2	0	4	100%
Kyrgyzstan	3	6	2	+4	3	100%
Vietnam	3	4	5	-1	3	99%
Palestine	3	0	3	-3	2	< 1%

Group E	Pld	GF	GA	GD	Pts	Last 16	Group Winner	Runner up
Qatar	2	8	0	+8	6	100%	55%	45%
Saudi Arabia	2	6	0	+6	6	100%	45%	55%
Lebanon	2	0	4	-4	0	15%	< 1%	< 1%
North Korea	2	0	10	-10	0	6%	< 1%	< 1%

Group F	Pld	GF	GA	GD	Pts	Last 16	Group Winner	Runner up
Uzbekistan	2	6	1	+5	6	100%	46%	54%
Japan	2	4	2	+2	6	100%	54%	46%
Oman	2	1	3	-2	0	67%	< 1%	< 1%
Turkmenistan	2	2	7	-5	0	9%	< 1%	< 1%

Lebanon, North Korea, Oman and Turkmenistan need to win to have a chance to be among four best thirds. They clinch advancement if they beat goal difference of Vietnam, 4-5, which means Lebanon win with 6-2 or 5-0; North Korea win with 9 goals; Oman win 2-0 or 5-4; Turkmenistan win with 4-0.

Asian Cup: Group D - Iran win the group and Vietnam almost qualified.

Group D	Pld	GF	GA	GD	Pts	Last 16	Group Winner	Runner up
Iran	3	7	0	+7	7	100%	100%	< 1%
Iraq	3	6	2	+4	7	100%	< 1%	100%
Vietnam	3	4	5	-1	3	99%	< 1%	< 1%
Yemen	3	0	10	-10	0	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Iran won the group and will likely play Oman (65%) or Lebanon (15%). Iraq finished second and will play winner in group E, Qatar (55%) or Saudi Arabia (45%). Vietnam have virtually clinched a spot in last 16. Unless Lebanon win with at least three goals against North Korea, they have clinched a spot.

Asian Cup: Group C - South Korea, China and Kyrgystan advance

Group C	Pld	GF	GA	GD	Pts	Last 16	Group Winner	Runner up
South Korea	3	4	0	+4	9	100%	100%	< 1%
China	3	5	3	+2	6	100%	< 1%	100%
Kyrgyzstan	3	4	4	0	3	100%	< 1%	< 1%
Philippines	3	1	7	-6	0	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

South Korea won the group final against China. South Korea will most likely (99%) play Bahrain in round of 16 and China will play Thailand. Kyrgyzstan won against Philippines and clinched advancement as one of best thirds. Kyrgyzstan will play UAE in next round.

Tuesday, January 15, 2019

Asian Cup: Group D - Match Day 3

Group D	Pld	GF	GA	GD	Pts	Last 16	Group Winner	Runner up
Iran	2	7	0	+7	6	100%	84%	16%
Iraq	2	6	2	+4	6	100%	16%	84%
Vietnam	2	2	5	-3	0	53%	< 1%	< 1%
Yemen	2	0	8	-8	0	17%	< 1%	< 1%

A draw between Vietnam and Yemen means both countries are out. Yemen have such a bad goal difference (-8) that they need help with draws in other groups, unless they can win big against Vietnam.

Probability that teams advance to last 16 given different results in next matches:

Ira - Ira		Vietnam - Yemen
Ira - Ira		3-0	3-1	2-0	3-2	2-1	1-0	0-0	1-1	2-2	3-3	0-1	1-2	2-3	0-2	1-3	0-3
3-0	Ira	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%
	Ira	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%
	Vie	100%	100%	99%	97%	97%	96%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Yem	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	70%	71%	71%	73%	74%	72%
3-1	Ira	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%
	Ira	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%
	Vie	100%	100%	100%	97%	97%	97%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Yem	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	70%	70%	69%	72%	75%	76%
2-0	Ira	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%
	Ira	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%
	Vie	100%	100%	100%	96%	97%	96%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Yem	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	70%	70%	73%	72%	73%	76%
3-2	Ira	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%
	Ira	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%
	Vie	100%	99%	100%	96%	97%	96%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Yem	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	69%	69%	71%	75%	75%	75%
2-1	Ira	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%
	Ira	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%
	Vie	100%	100%	99%	97%	97%	96%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Yem	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	71%	70%	70%	73%	72%	74%
1-0	Ira	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%
	Ira	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%
	Vie	100%	100%	99%	97%	97%	97%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Yem	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	70%	70%	72%	72%	74%	75%
0-0	Ira	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%
	Ira	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%
	Vie	100%	99%	100%	97%	97%	96%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Yem	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	71%	69%	71%	73%	75%	72%
1-1	Ira	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%
	Ira	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%
	Vie	100%	100%	100%	97%	97%	96%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Yem	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	70%	70%	71%	72%	73%	73%
2-2	Ira	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%
	Ira	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%
	Vie	100%	99%	99%	97%	96%	96%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Yem	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	70%	69%	70%	73%	73%	74%
3-3	Ira	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%
	Ira	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%
	Vie	100%	100%	99%	97%	97%	96%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Yem	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	70%	70%	69%	71%	75%	73%
0-1	Ira	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%
	Ira	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%
	Vie	100%	100%	100%	97%	97%	96%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Yem	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	70%	70%	74%	72%	73%	72%
1-2	Ira	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%
	Ira	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%
	Vie	100%	100%	100%	97%	97%	97%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Yem	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	71%	70%	72%	71%	74%	69%
2-3	Ira	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%
	Ira	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%
	Vie	100%	99%	99%	96%	97%	96%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Yem	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	70%	71%	72%	76%	74%	71%
0-2	Ira	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%
	Ira	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%
	Vie	100%	99%	99%	96%	97%	96%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Yem	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	70%	70%	74%	74%	75%	68%
1-3	Ira	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%
	Ira	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%
	Vie	100%	99%	99%	98%	96%	96%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Yem	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	72%	72%	71%	73%	75%	76%
0-3	Ira	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%
	Ira	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%
	Vie	100%	99%	99%	98%	97%	97%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Yem	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	70%	71%	72%	70%	74%	80%

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