CL: Miracle in Amsterdam

Tottenham's chances were down to 0.6% before they started the comeback. In the final our simulations estimate their chances to 46% against Liverpool.

CL: Miracle in Liverpool

Below shows how the chances evolved over the knockout phase. Liverpool was down to 2.3% after a couple of minutes of the match tonight.

PL: Predictions after week 37

Expected Outcome
Team	Points	Expected +/-	Champ%	Top4%
Man City	97.1	93-22	73	100
Liverpool	96.5	89-22	27	100
Chelsea	72.6	64-40	0	100
Tottenham	72.3	67-37	0	100
Arsenal	68.7	71-51	0	0.0467
Man United	68.4	67-52	0	0

Chelsea clinched top 4 and Man United are missing. Also, Tottenham have virtually clinched top 4, but Arsenal have a 0.05% probability to catch the 3-point and 8-goal margin.

Man City
Point	Probability	Chance
98	66.1	100
96	18.8	20.3
95	15.1	20.1

We give Man City 73% to win the title. We predict Man City have 66% chance to win the last match against Brighton, which would mean the title. If they don't win, they need to rely on Wolves stealing points from Liverpool (20%).

Liverpool
Point	Probability	Chance
97	79.7	33.9

Out simulations give Liverpool 80% against Wolves. Essentially Liverpool need to win, although a draw mathematically can suffice.

CL: Predictions after 1st leg semifinals

Our simulations give Liverpool 4% chance to turn around the semifinal against Barcelona, while Toittenham have just below 40% chance. The latter probably an overestimate as the model doesn't take into account injuries, recent form, et cetera.

How the probability of winning CL has evolved over the knockout-stage for the final four teams.