Thursday, June 27, 2019

Euro Qualifications

Many interesting matches in September. The most important one is between Hungary and Slovakia in Group E.

Group APldPtsQual1stTop 2Atleast PlayoffComment
England (P)2699.89%94%99.77%100%
Czechia3690%6%88%99.90%95% if they draw (or win) against Kosovo; otherwise 74%
Kosovo (P)3523%< 1%10%100%38% if they win against Czechia; otherwise 18%
Montenegro422.0%< 1%2.0%2.0%5% if they win against Czechia; otherwise 0.2%
Bulgaria4214%< 1%< 1%99.61%
(P) Clinched playoff

England has almost clinched qualifications (99.8%). The match between Czechia and Kosovo in September will be crucial in deciding which team that will join England to the finals.


Group BPldPtsQual1stTop 2Atleast PlayoffComment
Ukraine (H)41089%48%85%100%93% if they win against Lithuania; otherwise 78%
Luxembourg44< 1%< 1%< 1%13%2% if Kosovo win against Czechia; otherwise 0.4%
Serbia (P)3464%14%40%100%86% if they win against Portugal; otherwise 53%
Portugal (H)2289%38%75%100%98.2% if they win against Serbia; otherwise 83%
Lithuania31< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
(H) Clinched home advantage in playoff
(P) Clinched playoff

Three-team race between Ukraine, Serbia, and Portugal. The match in Serbia between Serbia and Portugal is, of course, important in September.

Group CPldPtsQual1stTop 2Atleast PlayoffComment
Northern Ireland41228%3.3%21%95.2%47% if they win against Germany; otherwise 24%
Germany3998.5%79%96.7%>99.99%99.82% if they win against Northern Ireland; otherwise 96%
Netherlands (P)2393%18%82%100%97% if they win against Germany; otherwise 91%
Belarus (P)4021%< 1%< 1%100%
Estonia30< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
(P) Clinched playoff

The favorites, Germany, play both Netherlands and Northern Ireland in September in two important matches.

Group DPldPtsQual1stTop 2Atleast PlayoffComment
Ireland41046%11%36%98.7%69% if they win against Switzerland; otherwise 38%
Denmark (P)3589%34%78%100%92% if they win against Georgia; otherwise 81%
Switzerland (H)2493%54%86%100%98.6% if they win against Ireland; otherwise 88%
Georgia (H)4337%< 1%< 1%100%
Gibraltar (E)30< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
(H) Clinched home advantage in playoff
(P) Clinched playoff
(E) Eliminated

Switzerland, Denmark and Ireland are favorites to clinch the two spots in the finals. Ireland and Switzerland play in September.

Group EPldPtsQual1stTop 2Atleast PlayoffComment
Hungary4945%11%40%93%76% if they win against Slovakia; otherwise 30%
Slovakia3659%18%47%99.58%77% if they win against Hungary; otherwise 45%
Croatia3692%62%84%>99.99%97% if they win against Slovakia; otherwise 88%
Wales3348%9%29%99.92%50% if they win against Azerbaijan; otherwise 36%
Azerbaijan30< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%

Open group between four teams. In September, Slovakia play both Hungary and Croatia.

Group FPldPtsQual1stTop 2Atleast PlayoffComment
Spain (P)41299.49%92%98.8%100%99.85% if they draw (or win) against Romania; otherwise 98.2%
Sweden (P)4783%6%72%100%89% if they win against Norway; otherwise 71%
Romania4734%2.0%23%72%48% if they win against Spain; otherwise 29%
Norway (H)4532%< 1%7%100%51% if they win against Sweden; otherwise 29%
Malta43< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
Faroe Islands (E)40< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
(H) Clinched home advantage in playoff
(P) Clinched playoff
(E) Eliminated

Key match between in September will be the match between Sweden and Norway.

Group GPldPtsQual1stTop 2Atleast PlayoffComment
Poland41298.7%91%98.2%>99.99%99.6% if they draw (or win) against Austria; otherwise 96%
Israel4732%1.7%27%96.4%53% if they win against Slovenia; otherwise 24%
Slovenia4619%1.9%19%19%30% if they win against Israel; otherwise 8%
Austria4466%4.9%53%>99.99%79% if they win against Poland; otherwise 60%
Macedonia (H)4431%< 1%3.3%100%36% if they win against Israel; otherwise 30%
Latvia40< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
(H) Clinched home advantage in playoff

Poland and Austria are favorites to grab the two spots in the group and they play an early group final in September. The challengers, Israel and Slovenia, also play an key match in September.

Group HPldPtsQual1stTop 2Atleast PlayoffComment
France (P)4999.51%88%98.5%100%99.6% if they win against Albania; otherwise 98.1%
Turkey4969%8%63%99.66%76% if Albania draw (or win) against Iceland; otherwise 60%
Iceland4950%3.7%38%99.90%60% if they win against Albania; otherwise 42%
Albania46< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%1% if they win against Iceland; otherwise 0.06%
Moldova43< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
Andorra (E)40< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
(P) Clinched playoff
(E) Eliminated

France have almost clinched a spot in the finals (>98%). The most interesting match in September will be whether Iceland can win in Albania.

Group IPldPtsQual1stTop 2Atleast PlayoffComment
Belgium (P)412>99.99%97.1%99.98%100%
Russia (P)4982%2.7%76%100%93% if they draw (or win) against Scotland; otherwise 69%
Kazakhstan46< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%4% if they win against Russia; otherwise 0.09%
Scotland (H)4651%< 1%24%100%63% if they win against Russia; otherwise 42%
Cyprus43< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
San Marino (E)40< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
(H) Clinched home advantage in playoff
(P) Clinched playoff
(E) Eliminated

Belgium has almost clinched a spot in the finals (99.98%). Russia and Scotland fight about the second spot and the match between them will of course be very important.

Group JPldPtsQual1stTop 2Atleast PlayoffComment
Italy41299.64%95.1%99.36%>99.99%99.91% if they draw (or win) against Finland; otherwise 98.7%
Finland (P)4962%3.3%57%100%75% if they win against Greece; otherwise 49%
Armenia461.5%< 1%1.4%1.8%6% if they win against Bosnia and Herzegovina; otherwise 0.6%
Greece447%< 1%7%9%18% if they win against Finland; otherwise 3%
Bosnia and Herzegovina (H)4460%1.5%36%100%65% if they win against Armenia; otherwise 50%
Liechtenstein40< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
(H) Clinched home advantage in playoff
(P) Clinched playoff

Italy has almost clinched a spot in the finals (99.4%). Finland are favorites to take the second spot.

League ATop 2PlayoffOwn LeagueHome AdvantageComment
DSwitzerland (H)86%14%14%14%98.6% if they win against Ireland; otherwise 88%
BPortugal (H)75%25%25%25%98.2% if they win against Serbia; otherwise 83%
CNetherlands (P)82%18%18%17%97% if they win against Germany; otherwise 91%
AEngland (P)99.77%< 1%< 1%< 1%
IBelgium (P)99.98%< 1%< 1%< 1%
HFrance (P)98.5%1.5%1.5%1.4%99.6% if they win against Albania; otherwise 98.1%
FSpain (P)98.8%1.2%1.2%1.1%99.85% if they draw (or win) against Romania; otherwise 98.2%
JItaly99.36%< 1%< 1%< 1%99.91% if they draw (or win) against Finland; otherwise 98.7%
ECroatia84%16%16%14%97% if they win against Slovakia; otherwise 88%
GPoland98.2%1.8%1.8%1.5%99.6% if they draw (or win) against Austria; otherwise 96%
CGermany96.7%3.3%3.3%3.0%99.82% if they win against Northern Ireland; otherwise 96%
HIceland38%62%62%51%60% if they win against Albania; otherwise 42%
League BTop 2PlayoffOwn LeagueHome AdvantageComment
JBosnia and Herzegovina (H)36%64%64%64%65% if they win against Armenia; otherwise 50%
BUkraine (H)85%15%15%15%93% if they win against Lithuania; otherwise 78%
DDenmark (P)78%22%22%20%92% if they win against Georgia; otherwise 81%
FSweden (P)72%28%28%22%89% if they win against Norway; otherwise 71%
IRussia (P)76%24%15%17%93% if they draw (or win) against Scotland; otherwise 69%
GAustria53%47%30%31%79% if they win against Poland; otherwise 60%
EWales29%71%49%38%50% if they win against Azerbaijan; otherwise 36%
ACzechia88%12%7%4.5%95% if they draw (or win) against Kosovo; otherwise 74%
ESlovakia47%53%36%20%77% if they win against Hungary; otherwise 45%
HTurkey63%37%23%11%76% if Albania draw (or win) against Iceland; otherwise 60%
DIreland36%63%45%9%69% if they win against Switzerland; otherwise 38%
CNorthern Ireland21%74%52%7%47% if they win against Germany; otherwise 24%
League CTop 2PlayoffOwn LeagueHome AdvantageComment
IScotland (H)24%76%76%76%63% if they win against Russia; otherwise 42%
FNorway (H)7%93%93%93%51% if they win against Sweden; otherwise 29%
BSerbia (P)40%60%60%17%86% if they win against Portugal; otherwise 53%
JFinland (P)57%43%43%5%75% if they win against Greece; otherwise 49%
ABulgaria< 1%98.8%49%18%
GIsrael27%69%32%3.2%53% if they win against Slovenia; otherwise 24%
EHungary40%53%22%< 1%76% if they win against Slovakia; otherwise 30%
FRomania23%50%22%< 1%48% if they win against Spain; otherwise 29%
JGreece7%2.4%2.4%< 1%18% if they win against Finland; otherwise 3%
HAlbania< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%1% if they win against Iceland; otherwise 0.06%
AMontenegro2.0%< 1%< 1%< 1%5% if they win against Czechia; otherwise 0.2%
ICyprus< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
CEstonia< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
GSlovenia19%< 1%< 1%< 1%30% if they win against Israel; otherwise 8%
BLithuania< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
League DTop 2PlayoffOwn LeagueHome AdvantageComment
DGeorgia (H)< 1%99.67%99.67%99.67%
GMacedonia (H)3.3%96.7%96.7%96.7%36% if they win against Israel; otherwise 30%
CBelarus (P)< 1%>99.99%>99.99%3.6%
AKosovo (P)10%90%90%< 1%38% if they win against Czechia; otherwise 18%
BLuxembourg< 1%13%13%< 1%2% if Kosovo win against Czechia; otherwise 0.4%
JArmenia1.4%< 1%< 1%< 1%6% if they win against Bosnia and Herzegovina; otherwise 0.6%
EAzerbaijan< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
HAndorra (E)< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
HMoldova< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
DGibraltar (E)< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
FFaroe Islands (E)< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
IKazakhstan< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%4% if they win against Russia; otherwise 0.09%
FMalta< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
GLatvia< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
JLiechtenstein< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
ISan Marino (E)< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
(H) Clinched home advantage in playoff
(P) Clinched playoff
(E) Eliminated