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PSG are 59% favorites in their semifinal against Leipzig, while Bayern are big favorites (78%) against Lyon. Bayern win the title in 47% of the simulations.
| Team | Semi | Final | Champ |
| Bayern | 100% | 78% | 47% |
| Paris SG | 100% | 59% | 29% |
| RB Leipzig | 100% | 41% | 17% |
| Lyon | 100% | 22% | 6% |
Bayern are new favorites with 31% chance to win.
| Team | Semi | Final | Champ |
| Bayern | 100% | 51% | 31% |
| Man City | 82% | 45% | 29% |
| Paris SG | 100% | 59% | 25% |
| RB Leipzig | 100% | 41% | 14% |
| Lyon | 18% | 4% | 1% |
In the first semi PSG and Leipzig will play. PSG are favorites with 59% to proceed to the final.
| Team | Semi | Final | Champ |
| Man City | 82% | 44% | 28% |
| Paris SG | 100% | 59% | 24% |
| Barcelona | 53% | 29% | 18% |
| Bayern | 47% | 24% | 14% |
| RB Leipzig | 100% | 41% | 14% |
| Lyon | 18% | 4% | 1% |
Predictions of the chances with seven teams left
| Team | Semi | Final | Champ |
| Man City | 82% | 44% | 28% |
| Paris SG | 100% | 57% | 24% |
| Barcelona | 53% | 29% | 18% |
| Bayern | 47% | 24% | 14% |
| Atletico | 53% | 24% | 9% |
| RB Leipzig | 47% | 19% | 6% |
| Lyon | 18% | 4% | 1% |
Below are the predictions before the quarterfinals.
| Team | Semi | Final | Champ |
| Man City | 82% | 44% | 29% |
| Barcelona | 53% | 29% | 19% |
| Paris SG | 63% | 36% | 15% |
| Bayern | 47% | 24% | 15% |
| Atletico | 53% | 26% | 9% |
| RB Leipzig | 47% | 21% | 7% |
| Atalanta | 37% | 16% | 5% |
| Lyon | 18% | 4% | 1% |
The first half looks slightly tougher with City, Lyon, Barcelona and Bayern. The probability that the final winner comes from this half is 64%. On the second half we have PSG being the strongest horse, playing Atalanta in the quartfinal, while Atletic has a difficult match against Leipzig.
CL probabilities after FRiday matches
| Team | QF | Semi | Final | Champ |
| Man City | 100% | 82% | 45% | 30% |
| Bayern | 99% | 51% | 26% | 16% |
| Barcelona | 81% | 44% | 24% | 15% |
| Paris SG | 100% | 63% | 36% | 15% |
| Atletico | 100% | 53% | 26% | 10% |
| RB Leipzig | 100% | 47% | 21% | 7% |
| Atalanta | 100% | 37% | 16% | 5% |
| Lyon | 100% | 18% | 4% | 1% |
| Napoli | 19% | 5% | 2% | < 1% |
| Chelsea | 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| Team | QF | Semi | Final | Champ |
| Man City | 87% | 61% | 33% | 22% |
| Bayern | 99% | 51% | 26% | 16% |
| Barcelona | 81% | 44% | 24% | 15% |
| Paris SG | 100% | 63% | 36% | 15% |
| Atletico | 100% | 53% | 26% | 10% |
| RB Leipzig | 100% | 47% | 21% | 7% |
| Juventus | 56% | 22% | 10% | 6% |
| Atalanta | 100% | 37% | 16% | 5% |
| Real Madrid | 13% | 8% | 4% | 2% |
| Lyon | 44% | 8% | 2% | < 1% |
| Napoli | 19% | 5% | 1% | < 1% |
| Chelsea | 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
