PL: Man City ahead with 2 points in expected points

 

Hot Teams
Newcastle: 15 points in the last 5 matches, 7.6 more than expected
Arsenal: 13 points in the last 5 matches, 3.5 more than expected
Aston Villa: 9 points in the last 5 matches, 3.3 more than expected
Forest: 7 points in the last 5 matches, 2.9 more than expected
Leicester: 9 points in the last 5 matches, 2.7 more than expected

Cold Teams
Chelsea: 4 points in the last 5 matches, 4.2 less than expected
West Ham: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 3.9 less than expected
Southampton: 1 point in the last 5 matches, 3.5 less than expected
Everton: 4 points in the last 5 matches, 3.0 less than expected
Bournemouth: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 1.8 less than expected

	Europe	EL (or CL)	CL
Fourth team	100%	100%	99.49%
Fifth team	>99.99%	99.94%	6%
FA cup winners	99.90%	99.90%	48%
League cup winners	100%	78%	64%
Sixth team	94%	65%	4.7%
Seventh team	65%	16%	3.7%
Eighth team	17%	6%	1.7%

Simulated points for winner: 83 - 89
Simulated points for fourth: 68 - 72
Simulated points for 17th team: 36 - 39

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
35	Man City	83.2	+57	< 1%	>99.99%	99.95%	99.75%	99.13%	58%	< 1%	< 1%	99.33%
40	Arsenal	81.3	+41	< 1%	99.98%	99.85%	99.35%	97.9%	37%	< 1%	1.5%	98.3%
25	Liverpool	71.8	+38	< 1%	98.7%	95.0%	87%	74%	3.0%	3.4%	16%	78%
33	Newcastle	67.4	+27	< 1%	94%	82%	64%	42%	< 1%	13%	35%	42%
29	Man United	66.9	+13	< 1%	91%	77%	57%	35%	< 1%	16%	33%	41%
30	Tottenham	66.4	+20	< 1%	91%	76%	56%	34%	< 1%	13%	36%	37%
24	Chelsea	62.5	+13	< 1%	76%	50%	29%	14%	< 1%	19%	32%	19%
24	Brighton	56.9	+8	< 1%	35%	17%	8%	2.9%	< 1%	15%	15%	2.8%
19	Crystal Palace	48.8	-9	1.9%	4.6%	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.6%	3.9%	< 1%
17	Leicester	47.5	-3	2.5%	3.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	7%	4.1%	< 1%
20	Brentford	47.2	-8	2.7%	2.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.5%	2.7%	< 1%
18	Aston Villa	45.9	-13	4.7%	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.6%	< 1%
22	Fulham	45.4	-12	5%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.5%	< 1%
14	West Ham	43.5	-9	10%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	21%	< 1%
15	Leeds	41.6	-16	17%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.7%	< 1%
16	Bournemouth	37.8	-32	41%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.0%	< 1%
14	Everton	37.7	-19	38%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.4%	< 1%
13	Wolves	36.1	-28	52%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.5%	1.2%	< 1%
12	Southampton	35.8	-28	54%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.6%	1.1%	< 1%
13	Forest	33.4	-40	72%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.0%	< 1%	< 1%

 

Titles

Team	One Title	Two titles	Three titles	Four titles	Double	Triple	Quadruple
Man City	87%	48%	13%	1.2%	10%	2.5%	1.2%
Arsenal	54%	11%	< 1%		3.6%
Liverpool	29%	2.9%	< 1%		< 1%	< 1%
Newcastle	21%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
Man United	34%	3.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Tottenham	12%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%	< 1%
Chelsea	12%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%	< 1%
Brighton	3.6%	< 1%			< 1%
Crystal Palace	2.8%
Leicester	9%	< 1%
Brentford	2.2%
Aston Villa	2.3%
Fulham	1.2%
West Ham	20%	< 1%
Leeds	1.7%
Bournemouth	1.0%
Everton	1.5%
Wolves	3.8%	< 1%
Southampton	3.7%	< 1%
Forest	2.8%	< 1%

Important matches for title race
Brighton vs Arsenal (2.1%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Arsenal	30%	35%	44%
Man City	64%	60%	52%

 

	Man City			Arsenal			Liverpool
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
96	1.1%	< 1%	99.8%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	-
95	1.9%	< 1%	99.7%	1.1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	-
94	3.0%	1.1%	99.4%	1.8%	< 1%	98%	< 1%	< 1%	-
93	4.6%	1.6%	99.1%	2.7%	< 1%	98%	< 1%	< 1%	-
92	7%	2.2%	98.1%	4.0%	1.3%	95%	< 1%	< 1%	-
91	10%	2.9%	97%	6%	1.8%	93%	< 1%	< 1%	-
90	13%	3.6%	96%	8%	2.3%	90%	< 1%	< 1%	89%
89	18%	4.4%	93%	11%	2.9%	85%	< 1%	< 1%	78%
88	23%	5%	90%	15%	3.7%	80%	< 1%	< 1%	78%
87	29%	6%	86%	19%	4.3%	74%	< 1%	< 1%	69%
86	35%	6%	82%	24%	5%	67%	< 1%	< 1%	58%
85	42%	7%	76%	30%	6%	60%	1.0%	< 1%	51%
84	49%	7%	69%	36%	6%	52%	1.7%	< 1%	40%
83	55%	7%	62%	42%	6%	44%	2.7%	< 1%	31%
82	62%	7%	54%	49%	7%	36%	4.2%	1.5%	24%
81	68%	6%	46%	56%	7%	28%	6%	2.0%	17%
80	74%	6%	37%	62%	7%	22%	9%	2.6%	11%
79	79%	5%	29%	68%	6%	15%	12%	3.4%	8%
78	84%	4.5%	21%	74%	6%	11%	16%	4.1%	5%
77	88%	3.8%	15%	79%	5%	7%	21%	4.8%	2.7%
76	91%	3.1%	10%	84%	4.5%	4.2%	27%	6%	1.4%
75	93%	2.5%	6%	87%	3.8%	2.2%	33%	6%	< 1%
74	95.1%	1.9%	4%	91%	3.1%	1.3%	39%	7%	< 1%
73	96.6%	1.5%	2%	93%	2.5%	< 1%	46%	7%	< 1%
72	97.7%	1.1%	< 1%	95.0%	1.9%	< 1%	53%	7%	< 1%
71	98.4%	< 1%	< 1%	96.5%	1.5%	< 1%	60%	7%	< 1%
70	99.0%	< 1%	< 1%	97.6%	1.1%	< 1%	66%	6%	< 1%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

 

Important matches for avoiding relegation
Fulham vs Southampton (3%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Southampton	40%	46%	59%
Fulham	97.4%	94%	91%
Bournemouth vs Crystal Palace (2.5%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Bournemouth	69%	57%	51%
Crystal Palace	96.9%	98.2%	99.2%
Wolves vs Man United (2%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Wolves	60%	47%	41%

	Forest			Southampton			Wolves			Bournemouth			Everton			Leeds			West Ham			Fulham			Aston Villa			Brentford			Leicester			Crystal Palace
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
51	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	1.5%	< 1%	100%	1.4%	< 1%	100%	7%	1.9%	100%	12%	3.1%	100%	18%	4.2%	100%	22%	4.6%	100%	28%	5%	100%	31%	6%	100%	39%	6%	100%
50	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	1.0%	< 1%	100%	2.2%	< 1%	100%	2.1%	< 1%	100%	9%	2.4%	100%	16%	3.7%	100%	23%	4.9%	100%	27%	5%	100%	34%	6%	100%	37%	6%	100%	45%	6%	100%
49	< 1%	< 1%	100%	1.5%	< 1%	100%	1.6%	< 1%	100%	3.2%	1.0%	100%	3.1%	< 1%	100%	12%	3.0%	100%	20%	4.3%	100%	29%	6%	100%	33%	6%	100%	41%	6%	100%	43%	6%	100%	51%	6%	100%
48	< 1%	< 1%	100%	2.2%	< 1%	100%	2.4%	< 1%	100%	4.6%	1.4%	100%	4.4%	1.4%	100%	16%	3.6%	100%	25%	5.0%	100%	35%	6%	100%	39%	6%	100%	48%	7%	100%	50%	7%	100%	58%	6%	100%
47	1.1%	< 1%	100%	3.3%	1.0%	100%	3.5%	1.1%	100%	6%	1.9%	100%	6%	1.9%	100%	20%	4.2%	100%	31%	6%	100%	41%	7%	100%	46%	7%	100%	54%	7%	100%	56%	7%	100%	64%	6%	100%
46	1.7%	< 1%	100%	4.7%	1.4%	100%	5%	1.5%	100%	9%	2.4%	100%	9%	2.4%	100%	25%	4.9%	100%	37%	6%	100%	48%	7%	100%	53%	7%	100%	61%	7%	100%	63%	7%	100%	70%	6%	100%
45	2.5%	< 1%	99.9%	7%	1.9%	100%	7%	2.0%	100%	12%	3.1%	100%	12%	3.0%	100%	31%	5%	100%	43%	6%	100%	55%	7%	100%	59%	7%	>99.99%	68%	6%	100%	69%	6%	100%	76%	6%	100%
44	3.7%	1.2%	>99.99%	9%	2.4%	>99.99%	10%	2.6%	>99.99%	16%	3.7%	99.99%	15%	3.7%	99.99%	37%	6%	100%	50%	7%	>99.99%	62%	7%	>99.99%	66%	7%	100%	74%	6%	100%	75%	6%	100%	81%	4.9%	100%
43	5%	1.6%	99.9%	12%	3.0%	99.9%	13%	3.2%	99.9%	20%	4.4%	99.9%	20%	4.4%	99.97%	43%	6%	99.98%	56%	7%	>99.99%	69%	7%	99.98%	72%	6%	99.98%	79%	5%	99.99%	80%	5%	>99.99%	85%	4.3%	99.99%
42	7%	2.1%	99.4%	16%	3.7%	99.7%	17%	3.9%	99.6%	25%	5%	99.6%	25%	5%	99.8%	50%	7%	99.9%	63%	7%	99.9%	75%	6%	99.9%	78%	6%	99.9%	84%	4.7%	99.9%	84%	4.5%	99.9%	89%	3.7%	99.9%
41	10%	2.7%	97.7%	20%	4.4%	98.6%	21%	4.6%	98.3%	31%	6%	98.4%	31%	6%	99.2%	56%	7%	99.4%	69%	6%	99.6%	80%	5%	99.4%	82%	4.9%	99.5%	88%	4.0%	99.5%	88%	3.8%	99.7%	92%	3.0%	99.5%
40	13%	3.3%	93%	25%	5%	95.7%	27%	5%	95.3%	37%	6%	95.0%	37%	6%	97.2%	63%	7%	97.9%	75%	6%	98.5%	85%	4.7%	98.0%	87%	4.2%	97.8%	91%	3.3%	98.3%	91%	3.1%	98.7%	94%	2.4%	98.0%
39	18%	4.1%	84%	31%	6%	89%	33%	6%	88%	44%	7%	88%	44%	7%	93%	69%	6%	94%	80%	5%	95.3%	89%	4.0%	94%	90%	3.5%	94%	94%	2.6%	95%	94%	2.4%	95%	95.8%	1.8%	94%
38	22%	4.8%	70%	37%	6%	78%	39%	7%	77%	51%	7%	77%	51%	7%	84%	75%	6%	86%	84%	4.5%	89%	92%	3.1%	86%	93%	2.8%	86%	95.7%	2.0%	87%	95.7%	1.9%	89%	97.2%	1.4%	85%
37	28%	6%	53%	44%	7%	63%	46%	7%	62%	58%	7%	61%	58%	7%	71%	80%	5%	73%	88%	3.8%	77%	95%	2.5%	73%	95.0%	2.1%	72%	97.1%	1.5%	74%	97.1%	1.4%	78%	98.1%	< 1%	73%
36	34%	6%	36%	51%	7%	45%	53%	7%	45%	65%	7%	44%	65%	7%	54%	85%	4.5%	57%	91%	3.1%	61%	96.4%	1.8%	56%	96.7%	1.6%	55%	98.2%	1.0%	57%	98.1%	1.0%	61%	98.8%	< 1%	55%
35	41%	7%	21%	58%	7%	30%	60%	7%	29%	72%	7%	29%	71%	6%	37%	88%	3.8%	41%	94%	2.5%	44%	97.7%	1.3%	38%	97.8%	1.2%	38%	98.9%	< 1%	38%	98.8%	< 1%	43%	99.29%	< 1%	35%
34	48%	7%	11%	65%	7%	17%	67%	7%	17%	77%	6%	17%	77%	6%	23%	92%	3.1%	25%	95.7%	1.9%	28%	98.6%	< 1%	23%	98.6%	< 1%	23%	99.33%	< 1%	23%	99.27%	< 1%	28%	99.59%	< 1%	21%
33	55%	7%	5.0%	71%	6%	9%	73%	6%	8%	83%	5%	9%	82%	5%	13%	94%	2.5%	14%	97.1%	1.4%	15%	99.20%	< 1%	12%	99.18%	< 1%	12%	99.62%	< 1%	12%	99.57%	< 1%	14%	99.76%	< 1%	12%
32	62%	7%	2.0%	77%	6%	4.1%	79%	6%	3.9%	87%	4.4%	3.8%	87%	4.5%	6%	95.9%	1.8%	6%	98.1%	1.0%	8%	99.57%	< 1%	5%	99.52%	< 1%	5%	99.80%	< 1%	6%	99.76%	< 1%	7%	99.87%	< 1%	5%
31	69%	7%	< 1%	82%	5%	1.6%	84%	4.9%	1.4%	91%	3.6%	1.4%	90%	3.6%	2.6%	97.3%	1.4%	3%	98.8%	< 1%	4%	99.78%	< 1%	2%	99.73%	< 1%	2%	99.90%	< 1%	2%	99.87%	< 1%	2%	99.94%	< 1%	2%
30	75%	6%	< 1%	87%	4.4%	< 1%	88%	4.2%	< 1%	94%	2.8%	< 1%	93%	2.9%	< 1%	98.3%	< 1%	< 1%	99.27%	< 1%	1%	99.89%	< 1%	< 1%	99.86%	< 1%	< 1%	99.95%	< 1%	< 1%	99.93%	< 1%	< 1%	99.97%	< 1%	< 1%
29	81%	6%	< 1%	90%	3.6%	< 1%	91%	3.4%	< 1%	95.7%	2.1%	< 1%	95.4%	2.2%	< 1%	98.9%	< 1%	< 1%	99.58%	< 1%	< 1%	99.95%	< 1%	< 1%	99.93%	< 1%	< 1%	99.98%	< 1%	< 1%	99.97%	< 1%	< 1%	99.98%	< 1%	< 1%
28	86%	4.8%	< 1%	93%	2.9%	< 1%	94%	2.7%	< 1%	97.3%	1.6%	< 1%	97.0%	1.6%	< 1%	99.37%	< 1%	< 1%	99.76%	< 1%	< 1%	99.98%	< 1%	< 1%	99.96%	< 1%	< 1%	>99.99%	< 1%	< 1%	99.98%	< 1%	< 1%	>99.99%	< 1%	-
27	90%	4.0%	< 1%	95.3%	2.2%	< 1%	96.0%	2.0%	< 1%	98.3%	1.1%	< 1%	98.1%	1.1%	< 1%	99.64%	< 1%	< 1%	99.87%	< 1%	< 1%	>99.99%	< 1%	< 1%	99.99%	< 1%	< 1%	>99.99%	< 1%	-	>99.99%	< 1%	-	>99.99%	< 1%	-

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points




Coming Matches

Home		Draw		Away
West Ham	52%	23%	25%	Brentford
Liverpool	72%	17%	12%	Leicester
Wolves	31%	24%	45%	Man United
Newcastle	64%	20%	17%	Leeds
Man City	81%	12%	7%	Everton
Bournemouth	37%	24%	38%	Crystal Palace
Fulham	50%	23%	27%	Southampton
Brighton	35%	24%	41%	Arsenal
Tottenham	64%	20%	17%	Aston Villa
Forest	23%	22%	55%	Chelsea