Last 16 of EL and ECL

Europa League

Team	QF	Semi	Final	Champion
Arsenal	81%	64%	49%	35%
Man United	66%	44%	28%	16%
Leverkusen	81%	39%	17%	7%
Union Berlin	70%	35%	16%	7%
Sociedad	57%	31%	15%	7%
Freiburg	55%	28%	13%	6%
Feyenoord	64%	28%	11%	4%
Juventus	45%	21%	9%	4%
Roma	43%	21%	9%	4%
Betis	34%	17%	8%	4%
Sevilla	59%	25%	9%	3%
Sporting	19%	9%	4%	2%
Fenerbahce	41%	14%	4%	1%
Shakhtar	36%	11%	3%	< 1%
St Gillis	30%	9%	3%	< 1%
Ferencvaros	19%	3%	< 1%	< 1%

Europa Conference League

Team	QF	Semi	Final	Champion
Villarreal	85%	63%	44%	27%
West Ham	89%	64%	42%	25%
Lazio	61%	42%	27%	15%
Nice	77%	44%	22%	10%
Fiorentina	78%	42%	19%	8%
Alkmaar	39%	23%	12%	6%
Gent	81%	32%	10%	3%
Djurgarden	53%	19%	6%	2%
Basel	71%	23%	6%	2%
Lech	47%	17%	5%	1%
Anderlecht	15%	6%	2%	< 1%
Sheriff Tiraspol	23%	8%	2%	< 1%
Sivasspor	22%	6%	1%	< 1%
Larnaca	11%	3%	< 1%	< 1%
Slovan Bratislava	29%	5%	< 1%	< 1%
Istanbulspor	19%	3%	< 1%	< 1%

 

CL: Probabilities after leg 1 of round of 16

 

Team	QF	Semi	Final	Champion
Man City	77%	56%	39%	25%
Bayern	85%	58%	38%	22%
Real Madrid	99%	59%	33%	17%
Napoli	95%	51%	25%	12%
Benfica	97%	39%	14%	5%
Inter	68%	27%	10%	4%
Dortmund	63%	24%	8%	3%
Chelsea	37%	17%	7%	3%
Tottenham	39%	17%	7%	3%
RB Leipzig	23%	11%	5%	2%
Milan	61%	20%	6%	2%
Porto	32%	13%	5%	2%
Paris SG	15%	7%	3%	1%
Liverpool	1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Frankfurt	5%	2%	< 1%	< 1%
Brugge	3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

 

CL: Real Madrid and Napoli virtually through to the quarterfinals

 Probabilities after match day 3 of round of 16.

Team	QF	Semi	Final	Champion
Man City	77%	56%	39%	25%
Bayern	85%	58%	38%	22%
Real Madrid	99%	58%	33%	17%
Napoli	95%	51%	25%	12%
Benfica	97%	39%	14%	5%
Dortmund	63%	24%	8%	3%
Porto	52%	21%	8%	3%
Chelsea	37%	17%	7%	3%
Tottenham	39%	17%	7%	3%
Inter	48%	19%	7%	2%
RB Leipzig	23%	11%	5%	2%
Milan	61%	20%	6%	2%
Paris SG	15%	7%	3%	1%
Liverpool	1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Frankfurt	5%	2%	< 1%	< 1%
Brugge	3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

 

PL: Tottenham vs Chelsea next week

Next week a London derby, Tottenham vs Chelsea, which is important for the various Europa races as detailed below. At the bottom of the table several matches such as Leeds vs Southampton and West Ham vs Forest.

Hot Teams
Wolves: 9 points in the last 5 matches, 3.2 more than expected
Forest: 8 points in the last 5 matches, 2.5 more than expected
Tottenham: 9 points in the last 5 matches, 2.3 more than expected
Fulham: 7 points in the last 5 matches, 1.8 more than expected
Man United: 10 points in the last 5 matches, 1.3 more than expected

Cold Teams
Leeds: 2 points in the last 5 matches, 3.7 less than expected
Chelsea: 6 points in the last 5 matches, 2.8 less than expected
Newcastle: 6 points in the last 5 matches, 2.7 less than expected
Liverpool: 7 points in the last 5 matches, 2.3 less than expected
Arsenal: 7 points in the last 5 matches, 2.2 less than expected

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
54	Arsenal	82.9	+43	< 1%	100%	>99.99%	99.99%	99.90%	52%	< 1%	< 1%	99.92%
52	Man City	81.9	+55	< 1%	>99.99%	>99.99%	99.98%	99.85%	46%	< 1%	< 1%	99.89%
49	Man United	72.8	+20	< 1%	99.70%	98.7%	95.2%	87%	1.4%	1.4%	10%	88%
35	Liverpool	66.2	+24	< 1%	94%	86%	68%	42%	< 1%	10%	35%	48%
42	Tottenham	65.5	+17	< 1%	92%	81%	59%	33%	< 1%	12%	44%	35%
41	Newcastle	64.7	+25	< 1%	91%	78%	55%	30%	< 1%	21%	43%	30%
35	Brighton	59.3	+13	< 1%	58%	32%	15%	6%	< 1%	21%	33%	6%
31	Chelsea	55.4	+6	< 1%	24%	10%	3.4%	< 1%	< 1%	12%	8%	3.8%
35	Brentford	54.9	+4	< 1%	21%	8%	3.0%	< 1%	< 1%	11%	7%	< 1%
38	Fulham	54.8	-1	< 1%	17%	6%	2.0%	< 1%	< 1%	9%	7%	< 1%
28	Aston Villa	48.2	-11	< 1%	1.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%
26	Crystal Palace	45.1	-13	2.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
24	Leicester	43.4	-7	4.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	4.6%	< 1%
25	Forest	39.4	-31	22%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
20	West Ham	39.2	-13	20%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	18%	< 1%
23	Wolves	39.1	-23	22%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
19	Leeds	36.4	-18	41%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.6%	< 1%
21	Everton	35.8	-22	48%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
21	Bournemouth	34.6	-36	62%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
18	Southampton	32.5	-31	76%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.7%	< 1%

Titles

Team	One Title	Two titles	Three titles	Four titles	Double	Triple	Quadruple
Arsenal	62%	11%
Man City	78%	33%	5%		21%	5%
Man United	65%	16%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%
Liverpool	10%	< 1%
Tottenham	13%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%	< 1%
Newcastle	49%	< 1%
Brighton	12%	< 1%			< 1%
Chelsea	2.9%
Fulham	2.3%
Leicester	4.6%
West Ham	18%	< 1%
Leeds	1.6%
Southampton	1.7%

Important matches for title race
Leicester vs Arsenal (3.7%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Arsenal	41%	48%	60%
Man City	56%	51%	39%
Bournemouth vs Man City (2.8%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Man City	33%	39%	51%
Arsenal	65%	59%	48%

	Arsenal			Man City			Man United
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
93	1.5%	< 1%	99.9%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
92	2.8%	1.3%	99.4%	1.1%	< 1%	99.4%	< 1%	< 1%	-
91	4.8%	2.0%	98.6%	1.9%	< 1%	98%	< 1%	< 1%	-
90	7%	2.6%	97.6%	3.7%	1.7%	97%	< 1%	< 1%	-
89	11%	4.0%	94%	7%	3.1%	94%	< 1%	< 1%	85%
88	16%	5%	91%	10%	3.4%	91%	< 1%	< 1%	72%
87	22%	6%	86%	16%	5%	86%	< 1%	< 1%	62%
86	30%	7%	79%	22%	6%	80%	< 1%	< 1%	53%
85	38%	8%	71%	29%	7%	72%	< 1%	< 1%	44%
84	46%	8%	62%	38%	9%	63%	< 1%	< 1%	32%
83	55%	9%	53%	46%	9%	54%	1.8%	< 1%	23%
82	63%	8%	43%	55%	9%	44%	2.9%	1.2%	16%
81	70%	8%	34%	64%	9%	35%	4.9%	1.9%	10%
80	77%	7%	25%	72%	8%	27%	8%	2.8%	6%
79	83%	6%	18%	78%	7%	20%	11%	3.6%	3.1%
78	88%	4.7%	13%	84%	6%	14%	16%	4.8%	1.6%
77	92%	3.8%	8%	89%	4.5%	9%	22%	6%	< 1%
76	94%	2.8%	5%	92%	3.5%	5%	29%	7%	< 1%
75	96.4%	2.0%	3%	95%	2.7%	3%	36%	8%	< 1%
74	97.8%	1.4%	1.3%	96.6%	1.9%	1.5%	45%	8%	< 1%
73	98.7%	< 1%	< 1%	97.9%	1.3%	< 1%	53%	8%	< 1%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for CL race
Tottenham vs Chelsea (2.6%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Tottenham	43%	31%	25%
Liverpool	46%	50%	52%
Newcastle	28%	31%	33%
Crystal Palace vs Liverpool (2.5%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Liverpool	38%	44%	56%
Tottenham	39%	37%	32%
Newcastle	34%	32%	27%

	Man United			Liverpool			Tottenham			Newcastle			Brighton			Chelsea
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
77	22%	6%	>99.99%	1.3%	< 1%	99.9%	< 1%	< 1%	99.9%	< 1%	< 1%	99.9%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-
76	29%	7%	99.96%	2.4%	1.1%	99.8%	1.6%	< 1%	99.7%	1.3%	< 1%	99.8%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-
75	36%	8%	99.9%	4.0%	1.7%	99.6%	2.7%	1.1%	99.0%	2.3%	< 1%	99.1%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	-
74	45%	8%	99.6%	6%	2.2%	98.9%	4.6%	1.8%	98%	3.6%	1.4%	98%	< 1%	< 1%	97%	< 1%	< 1%	-
73	53%	8%	98.9%	10%	3.4%	97.1%	7%	2.6%	96%	6%	2.0%	96%	< 1%	< 1%	94%	< 1%	< 1%	-
72	61%	8%	97.3%	14%	4.2%	94%	10%	3.3%	92%	8%	2.8%	92%	< 1%	< 1%	90%	< 1%	< 1%	93%
71	69%	8%	95%	19%	5%	90%	15%	4.5%	85%	12%	3.6%	86%	1.2%	< 1%	82%	< 1%	< 1%	91%
70	76%	7%	90%	26%	6%	83%	20%	5%	76%	17%	4.6%	77%	2.1%	< 1%	72%	< 1%	< 1%	76%
69	82%	6%	82%	33%	7%	74%	27%	6%	65%	22%	5%	67%	3.4%	1.3%	58%	< 1%	< 1%	66%
68	87%	4.9%	71%	40%	8%	63%	34%	7%	52%	29%	6%	54%	5%	1.8%	45%	< 1%	< 1%	49%
67	91%	3.9%	59%	48%	8%	51%	42%	8%	39%	36%	7%	40%	8%	2.5%	31%	< 1%	< 1%	35%
66	94%	2.9%	47%	56%	8%	40%	50%	8%	27%	43%	8%	29%	11%	3.3%	19%	1.7%	< 1%	23%
65	96.2%	2.1%	35%	64%	8%	30%	59%	8%	18%	51%	8%	18%	15%	4.2%	11%	2.9%	1.2%	13%
64	97.7%	1.4%	25%	71%	7%	22%	67%	8%	11%	59%	8%	11%	20%	5%	5%	4.5%	1.6%	8%
63	98.6%	< 1%	19%	78%	6%	17%	74%	7%	7%	67%	7%	5%	26%	6%	2.4%	7%	2.5%	5%
62	99.24%	< 1%	16%	83%	5%	13%	80%	6%	4.5%	74%	7%	2.5%	33%	7%	< 1%	10%	3.3%	4%
61	99.59%	< 1%	15%	88%	4.5%	12%	85%	5%	3.3%	80%	6%	< 1%	40%	7%	< 1%	14%	4.2%	2.9%
60	99.80%	< 1%	15%	91%	3.6%	11%	90%	4.3%	2.9%	85%	5%	< 1%	48%	8%	< 1%	20%	5%	3.0%
59	99.91%	< 1%	14%	94%	2.7%	10%	93%	3.3%	2.7%	89%	4.3%	< 1%	56%	8%	< 1%	26%	6%	2.9%
58	99.96%	< 1%	14%	96.0%	2.0%	10%	95.4%	2.4%	3%	93%	3.3%	< 1%	64%	8%	< 1%	33%	7%	2.9%
57	99.98%	< 1%	17%	97.4%	1.4%	10%	97.1%	1.7%	3%	95.2%	2.5%	< 1%	71%	7%	< 1%	41%	8%	2.8%
56	>99.99%	< 1%	11%	98.4%	< 1%	10%	98.3%	1.2%	3%	96.9%	1.8%	< 1%	77%	6%	< 1%	49%	8%	2.9%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for EL race (EL or CL)
Tottenham vs Chelsea (3.1%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Tottenham	85%	76%	70%
Chelsea	8%	11%	18%

	Tottenham			Newcastle			Liverpool			Brighton			West Ham			Man United			Chelsea			Fulham			Brentford			Leicester			Southampton			Leeds
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
83	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	1.8%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
82	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	2.9%	1.2%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
81	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	4.9%	1.9%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
80	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	8%	2.8%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
79	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	11%	3.6%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
78	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	16%	4.8%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
77	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	1.3%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	22%	6%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
76	1.6%	< 1%	99.9%	1.3%	< 1%	100%	2.4%	1.1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	29%	7%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
75	2.7%	1.1%	100%	2.3%	< 1%	100%	4.0%	1.7%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	36%	8%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
74	4.6%	1.8%	99.99%	3.6%	1.4%	99.9%	6%	2.2%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	45%	8%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
73	7%	2.6%	99.98%	6%	2.0%	99.98%	10%	3.4%	99.99%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	53%	8%	>99.99%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
72	10%	3.3%	99.9%	8%	2.8%	99.9%	14%	4.2%	99.96%	< 1%	< 1%	99.9%	< 1%	< 1%	-	61%	8%	99.98%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
71	15%	4.5%	99.8%	12%	3.6%	99.8%	19%	5%	99.9%	1.2%	< 1%	99.7%	< 1%	< 1%	-	69%	8%	99.94%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
70	20%	5%	99.3%	17%	4.6%	99.6%	26%	6%	99.8%	2.1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	-	76%	7%	99.8%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	98%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
69	27%	6%	98.8%	22%	5%	99.1%	33%	7%	99.3%	3.4%	1.3%	98%	< 1%	< 1%	-	82%	6%	99.4%	< 1%	< 1%	98%	< 1%	< 1%	96%	< 1%	< 1%	98%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
68	34%	7%	97.5%	29%	6%	98.0%	40%	8%	98.5%	5%	1.8%	96%	< 1%	< 1%	-	87%	4.9%	98.7%	< 1%	< 1%	95%	< 1%	< 1%	93%	< 1%	< 1%	96%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
67	42%	8%	95.5%	36%	7%	96.1%	48%	8%	97.0%	8%	2.5%	94%	< 1%	< 1%	-	91%	3.9%	97.2%	< 1%	< 1%	92%	< 1%	< 1%	88%	< 1%	< 1%	91%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
66	50%	8%	92%	43%	8%	93%	56%	8%	94%	11%	3.3%	88%	< 1%	< 1%	-	94%	2.9%	95%	1.7%	< 1%	85%	1.2%	< 1%	79%	1.5%	< 1%	84%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
65	59%	8%	87%	51%	8%	89%	64%	8%	91%	15%	4.2%	82%	< 1%	< 1%	-	96.2%	2.1%	90%	2.9%	1.2%	75%	2.0%	< 1%	69%	2.5%	< 1%	75%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
64	67%	8%	81%	59%	8%	82%	71%	7%	85%	20%	5%	73%	< 1%	< 1%	-	97.7%	1.4%	84%	4.5%	1.6%	63%	3.3%	1.3%	56%	4.0%	1.5%	61%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
63	74%	7%	72%	67%	7%	73%	78%	6%	77%	26%	6%	62%	< 1%	< 1%	-	98.6%	< 1%	76%	7%	2.5%	51%	5%	1.9%	43%	6%	2.1%	49%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for Europe race (ECL, EL or CL)
Tottenham vs Chelsea (3.4%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Chelsea	17%	22%	34%
Tottenham	95.1%	90%	85%

	Newcastle			Brighton			Tottenham			Chelsea			Brentford			Liverpool			Fulham			Man United			Aston Villa
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
66	43%	8%	99.9%	11%	3.3%	97.9%	50%	8%	99.3%	1.7%	< 1%	96%	1.5%	< 1%	96%	56%	8%	99.5%	1.2%	< 1%	95%	94%	2.9%	99.6%	< 1%	< 1%	97%
65	51%	8%	99.6%	15%	4.2%	96.3%	59%	8%	98.3%	2.9%	1.2%	93%	2.5%	< 1%	93%	64%	8%	99.0%	2.0%	< 1%	90%	96.2%	2.1%	99.2%	< 1%	< 1%	95%
64	59%	8%	99.2%	20%	5%	94%	67%	8%	96.9%	4.5%	1.6%	88%	4.0%	1.5%	88%	71%	7%	97.9%	3.3%	1.3%	84%	97.7%	1.4%	98%	< 1%	< 1%	88%
63	67%	7%	98.0%	26%	6%	90%	74%	7%	94%	7%	2.5%	81%	6%	2.1%	81%	78%	6%	95.9%	5%	1.9%	77%	98.6%	< 1%	97%	< 1%	< 1%	80%
62	74%	7%	96.4%	33%	7%	86%	80%	6%	90%	10%	3.3%	72%	9%	2.8%	71%	83%	5%	92%	8%	2.5%	67%	99.24%	< 1%	94%	< 1%	< 1%	68%
61	80%	6%	94%	40%	7%	79%	85%	5%	84%	14%	4.2%	62%	13%	3.8%	61%	88%	4.5%	87%	11%	3.5%	56%	99.59%	< 1%	91%	< 1%	< 1%	59%
60	85%	5%	89%	48%	8%	70%	90%	4.3%	76%	20%	5%	51%	17%	4.7%	49%	91%	3.6%	79%	16%	4.5%	44%	99.80%	< 1%	87%	1.1%	< 1%	45%
59	89%	4.3%	84%	56%	8%	61%	93%	3.3%	65%	26%	6%	39%	23%	6%	37%	94%	2.7%	69%	21%	5%	33%	99.91%	< 1%	80%	1.8%	< 1%	32%
58	93%	3.3%	76%	64%	8%	50%	95.4%	2.4%	53%	33%	7%	28%	30%	7%	26%	96.0%	2.0%	56%	28%	7%	23%	99.96%	< 1%	78%	2.9%	1.1%	21%
57	95.2%	2.5%	69%	71%	7%	40%	97.1%	1.7%	41%	41%	8%	19%	37%	7%	17%	97.4%	1.4%	44%	35%	7%	15%	99.98%	< 1%	74%	4.5%	1.6%	12%
56	96.9%	1.8%	63%	77%	6%	31%	98.3%	1.2%	31%	49%	8%	13%	45%	8%	10%	98.4%	< 1%	32%	43%	8%	10%	>99.99%	< 1%	54%	7%	2.3%	6%
55	98.1%	1.2%	57%	83%	6%	24%	99.01%	< 1%	23%	57%	8%	9%	53%	8%	6%	99.05%	< 1%	23%	52%	8%	6%	>99.99%	< 1%	-	10%	3.0%	3%
54	98.9%	< 1%	52%	87%	4.6%	19%	99.46%	< 1%	19%	65%	8%	6%	61%	8%	3.0%	99.44%	< 1%	16%	60%	8%	4.4%	>99.99%	< 1%	-	14%	4.0%	1.4%
53	99.40%	< 1%	50%	91%	3.7%	16%	99.73%	< 1%	16%	72%	7%	4.4%	69%	8%	1.4%	99.69%	< 1%	13%	68%	8%	3.3%	>99.99%	< 1%	-	19%	4.9%	< 1%
52	99.69%	< 1%	51%	94%	2.8%	14%	99.87%	< 1%	15%	79%	6%	3.4%	76%	7%	< 1%	99.83%	< 1%	11%	76%	7%	2.6%	100%	< 1%	-	25%	6%	< 1%
51	99.85%	< 1%	48%	96.1%	2.1%	13%	99.94%	< 1%	13%	84%	5%	3.2%	82%	6%	< 1%	99.92%	< 1%	12%	82%	6%	2.3%	100%	< 1%	-	31%	7%	< 1%
50	99.93%	< 1%	49%	97.5%	1.5%	13%	99.97%	< 1%	15%	89%	4.4%	2.9%	87%	5%	< 1%	99.96%	< 1%	10%	87%	5%	2.4%	100%	< 1%	-	39%	7%	< 1%
49	99.97%	< 1%	50%	98.5%	< 1%	12%	99.99%	< 1%	13%	92%	3.5%	2.9%	91%	4.1%	< 1%	99.98%	< 1%	12%	91%	4.2%	2.3%	100%	< 1%	-	47%	8%	< 1%
48	99.99%	< 1%	43%	99.16%	< 1%	13%	>99.99%	< 1%	-	95%	2.6%	3%	94%	3.1%	< 1%	>99.99%	< 1%	8%	94%	3.1%	2.3%	100%	< 1%	-	55%	8%	< 1%
47	>99.99%	< 1%	-	99.55%	< 1%	12%	>99.99%	< 1%	-	96.7%	1.9%	3%	96.1%	2.2%	< 1%	>99.99%	< 1%	-	96.7%	2.2%	2%	100%	< 1%	-	63%	8%	< 1%
46	>99.99%	< 1%	-	99.77%	< 1%	10%	>99.99%	< 1%	-	98.0%	1.3%	3%	97.7%	1.6%	< 1%	>99.99%	< 1%	-	98.1%	1.5%	2%	100%	< 1%	-	70%	7%	< 1%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for avoiding relegation
Leeds vs Southampton (6.3%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Leeds	68%	53%	43%
Southampton	17%	25%	40%
West Ham vs Forest (4.7%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
West Ham	86%	74%	66%
Forest	73%	80%	90%
Everton vs Aston Villa (3.7%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Everton	64%	49%	41%
Aston Villa	99.0%	99.5%	99.89%
Fulham vs Wolves (2%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Wolves	72%	79%	88%

	Southampton			Bournemouth			Everton			Leeds			Forest			Wolves			West Ham			Leicester			Crystal Palace
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
48	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	1.1%	< 1%	100%	4.3%	1.6%	100%	4.0%	1.5%	100%	4.6%	1.6%	100%	20%	5%	100%	31%	7%	100%
47	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	1.3%	< 1%	100%	1.9%	< 1%	100%	6%	2.2%	100%	6%	2.1%	100%	7%	2.2%	100%	26%	6%	100%	38%	7%	100%
46	< 1%	< 1%	100%	1.2%	< 1%	100%	2.1%	< 1%	100%	3.0%	1.1%	100%	9%	3.0%	100%	9%	2.9%	100%	10%	3.1%	100%	33%	7%	100%	46%	8%	100%
45	< 1%	< 1%	100%	1.9%	< 1%	100%	3.3%	1.2%	100%	4.8%	1.7%	100%	13%	4.0%	100%	13%	3.8%	100%	14%	3.9%	100%	41%	8%	100%	54%	8%	100%
44	1.1%	< 1%	100%	3.1%	1.1%	100%	5%	1.8%	100%	7%	2.3%	100%	18%	5.0%	100%	18%	4.8%	100%	19%	4.9%	100%	49%	8%	100%	62%	8%	100%
43	1.8%	< 1%	100%	4.7%	1.7%	99.9%	8%	2.5%	99.99%	10%	3.1%	100%	24%	6%	>99.99%	23%	6%	>99.99%	25%	6%	>99.99%	57%	8%	100%	70%	8%	>99.99%
42	2.8%	1.1%	99.9%	7%	2.3%	99.9%	11%	3.3%	99.9%	14%	4.2%	99.98%	31%	7%	99.96%	30%	7%	99.99%	31%	7%	>99.99%	65%	8%	>99.99%	77%	7%	99.99%
41	4.4%	1.6%	99.6%	10%	3.2%	99.6%	15%	4.4%	99.8%	19%	5%	99.9%	39%	8%	99.7%	38%	8%	99.8%	39%	7%	99.94%	72%	7%	99.96%	83%	6%	99.9%
40	7%	2.2%	98.4%	14%	4.1%	98.0%	21%	5%	98.9%	26%	6%	99.4%	48%	8%	98.9%	46%	8%	99.2%	47%	8%	99.6%	79%	6%	99.8%	88%	5.0%	99.5%
39	10%	3.0%	94%	19%	5%	93%	27%	6%	96.5%	33%	7%	97.5%	56%	9%	96.0%	54%	8%	97.2%	55%	8%	98.5%	84%	6%	98.7%	92%	3.9%	97.8%
38	14%	4.1%	85%	26%	6%	84%	35%	7%	90%	40%	8%	92%	65%	8%	89%	63%	8%	92%	63%	8%	95%	89%	4.6%	95.6%	95%	2.9%	93%
37	19%	5%	70%	33%	7%	68%	43%	8%	79%	48%	8%	82%	73%	8%	77%	71%	8%	81%	70%	8%	87%	93%	3.5%	88%	96.7%	2.1%	81%
36	25%	6%	51%	41%	8%	49%	51%	8%	61%	57%	8%	67%	80%	7%	59%	78%	7%	65%	77%	7%	72%	95.2%	2.6%	73%	98.1%	1.4%	64%
35	32%	7%	31%	50%	9%	30%	60%	9%	42%	65%	8%	47%	86%	6%	39%	84%	6%	46%	83%	6%	54%	97.1%	1.9%	53%	99.0%	< 1%	44%
34	40%	8%	16%	58%	9%	15%	68%	8%	24%	72%	8%	28%	91%	4.7%	22%	89%	5.0%	28%	88%	4.9%	35%	98.3%	1.2%	31%	99.46%	< 1%	24%
33	48%	8%	7%	66%	8%	7%	75%	8%	12%	79%	7%	15%	94%	3.6%	10%	93%	3.8%	14%	92%	3.8%	18%	99.07%	< 1%	16%	99.74%	< 1%	11%
32	57%	9%	2.4%	74%	8%	2.2%	82%	7%	5%	85%	6%	6%	96.6%	2.4%	4%	95.4%	2.8%	6%	95%	2.9%	8%	99.53%	< 1%	7%	99.89%	< 1%	4%
31	66%	8%	< 1%	81%	7%	< 1%	88%	5%	1.7%	89%	4.6%	2.3%	98.2%	1.6%	1.3%	97.3%	1.9%	2%	96.7%	2.1%	3%	99.77%	< 1%	2%	99.96%	< 1%	< 1%
30	73%	8%	< 1%	87%	6%	< 1%	92%	4.2%	< 1%	93%	3.6%	< 1%	99.12%	< 1%	< 1%	98.6%	1.2%	< 1%	98.0%	1.4%	< 1%	99.90%	< 1%	< 1%	99.98%	< 1%	< 1%
29	80%	7%	< 1%	92%	4.6%	< 1%	95%	3.2%	< 1%	95.6%	2.6%	< 1%	99.62%	< 1%	< 1%	99.28%	< 1%	< 1%	98.9%	< 1%	< 1%	99.96%	< 1%	< 1%	>99.99%	< 1%	< 1%
28	86%	6%	< 1%	95%	3.3%	< 1%	97.1%	2.1%	< 1%	97.4%	1.8%	< 1%	99.86%	< 1%	< 1%	99.68%	< 1%	< 1%	99.45%	< 1%	< 1%	99.99%	< 1%	< 1%	>99.99%	< 1%	-
27	91%	4.6%	< 1%	97.1%	2.2%	< 1%	98.5%	1.3%	< 1%	98.6%	1.2%	< 1%	99.96%	< 1%	< 1%	99.88%	< 1%	< 1%	99.74%	< 1%	< 1%	>99.99%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

	Europe	EL (or CL)	CL
Fourth team	100%	100%	99.86%
Fifth team	>99.99%	>99.99%	4.6%
FA cup winners	100%	100%	64%
League cup winners	100%	86%	60%
Sixth team	97.9%	76%	3.1%
Seventh team	79%	12%	1.8%
Eighth team	14%	4.5%	1.1%

Simulated points for winner: 83 - 88
Simulated points for fourth: 67 - 71
Simulated points for 17th team: 35 - 38

Coming Matches

Home		Draw		Away
Fulham	52%	23%	26%	Wolves
Everton	38%	24%	38%	Aston Villa
Leeds	55%	22%	22%	Southampton
West Ham	59%	21%	20%	Forest
Leicester	28%	23%	49%	Arsenal
Bournemouth	13%	17%	69%	Man City
Crystal Palace	26%	23%	51%	Liverpool
Tottenham	48%	24%	29%	Chelsea