Wednesday, March 29, 2023

Euro: Important matches in June

Below are the most important matches in June. Most important are a couple of matches between 2nd-ranked and 3rd-ranked teams such as Austria and Sweden in Group F, Finland and Slovenia in Group H, and Turkey and Wales in Group D.

Group F

Austria vs Sweden (26.3%)Home WinDrawAway Win
Sweden20%49%75%
Austria87%67%50%

Group H
Finland vs Slovenia (16.4%)Home WinDrawAway Win
Slovenia35%55%77%
Finland82%63%46%

Group D
Turkey vs Wales (12.6%)Home WinDrawAway Win
Wales71%87%95.9%
Turkey64%43%32%

Group J
Iceland vs Slovakia (12.6%)Home WinDrawAway Win
Slovakia19%33%54%
Iceland31%14%6%

Group G
Montenegro vs Hungary (10.7%)Home WinDrawAway Win
Montenegro26%8%2.0%
Hungary86%95.5%99.1%

Group I

Kosovo vs Romania (8.8%)Home WinDrawAway Win
Romania45%58%73%
Kosovo16%6%1.7%
Israel52%50%42%

Group A
Norway vs Scotland (7.6%)Home WinDrawAway Win
Scotland73%84%94%
Norway54%38%30%

Group J
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs Luxembourg (5.1%)Home WinDrawAway Win
Bosnia and Herzegovina61%46%37%
Luxembourg4.5%9%19%
Slovakia30%39%38%
Iceland17%24%25%

Group A
Scotland vs Georgia (4.4%)Home WinDrawAway Win
Scotland88%77%66%
Georgia40%44%55%

Group H
Slovenia vs Denmark (4%)Home WinDrawAway Win
Slovenia69%52%43%
Denmark94%97.5%99.45%
Finland61%68%71%

 

 
Group A


ProbabilitiesPointGD
CountryAt least
Playoff		At least
Second		Group
Winner		Min25%Average75%MaxAverage
Spain100%96.4%76%51618192115.9
Scotland100%70%19%61314.917244.7
Norway83%24%3.5%1911.413190.8
Georgia100%10%1.5%179.41122-2.5
Cyprus< 1%< 1%< 1%012.6416-18.9

Group B

ProbabilitiesPointGD
CountryAt least
Playoff		At least
Second		Group
Winner		Min25%Average75%MaxAverage
France>99.99%98.3%80%91819.9212419.4
Netherlands100%90%19%51617.2192111.2
Greece100%8%1.1%3910.913240.6
Ireland28%3.4%< 1%089.51121-0.4
Gibraltar< 1%< 1%< 1%000.5110-30.8
France clinch at least playoff if they win against Greece (79%)

Group C

ProbabilitiesPointGD
CountryAt least
Playoff		At least
Second		Group
Winner		Min25%Average75%MaxAverage
England99.99%96.8%75%71819.3212414.6
Italy100%77%21%31416.1182111.3
Ukraine98.8%24%3.8%01112.915213.7
North Macedonia1.7%1.7%< 1%367.91024-8.7
Malta< 1%< 1%< 1%001.5313-20.9

Group D

ProbabilitiesPointGD
CountryAt least
Playoff		At least
Second		Group
Winner		Min25%Average75%MaxAverage
Croatia100%96.3%70%51718.5202214.4
Wales99.77%75%25%41415.718226.9
Turkey100%28%4.5%31112.815211.5
Armenia< 1%< 1%< 1%045.5721-9.7
Latvia86%< 1%< 1%023.9619-13.1

Group E

ProbabilitiesPointGD
CountryAt least
Playoff		At least
Second		Group
Winner		Min25%Average75%MaxAverage
Czechia99.97%92%50%51617.3192213
Poland>99.99%94%47%31617.4192110.3
Albania93%12%2.6%091113211.1
Faroe Islands1.2%1.2%< 1%367.3921-10.7
Moldova< 1%< 1%< 1%123.6519-13.7

Group F

ProbabilitiesPointGD
CountryAt least
Playoff		At least
Second		Group
Winner		Min25%Average75%MaxAverage
Belgium>99.99%99.43%93%71921.1222420.6
Austria99.95%57%5%61214.116243.2
Sweden42%42%1.5%31112.915214.5
Estonia97.4%< 1%< 1%035.1719-11.1
Azerbaijan8%< 1%< 1%034.2618-17.2

Group G

ProbabilitiesPointGD
CountryAt least
Playoff		At least
Second		Group
Winner		Min25%Average75%MaxAverage
Serbia100%98.5%66%61819.4212413.5
Hungary>99.99%92%34%31517.4192412.2
Montenegro8%8%< 1%3910.91321-2.4
Bulgaria< 1%< 1%< 1%056.8918-7
Lithuania< 1%< 1%< 1%013418-16.3

Group H

ProbabilitiesPointGD
CountryAt least
Playoff		At least
Second		Group
Winner		Min25%Average75%MaxAverage
Denmark>99.99%95.2%78%92223.5252725.4
Finland99.97%57%12%51719.3212711.9
Slovenia77%42%10%61618.421306.3
Northern Ireland3.9%3.9%< 1%3111315270.1
Kazakhstan100%1.7%< 1%31012.31427-3.1
San Marino< 1%< 1%< 1%000.5110-40.6
Finland clinch at least playoff if Scotland win against Norway and Cyprus draw against Georgia (6%)

Group I

ProbabilitiesPointGD
CountryAt least
Playoff		At least
Second		Group
Winner		Min25%Average75%MaxAverage
Switzerland>99.99%99.65%95.4%112526.2283027.8
Romania59%59%3.7%61517.620305.2
Israel100%32%< 1%21315.518253.7
Kosovo9%8%< 1%210121426-2.6
Belarus1.5%1.5%< 1%079.31124-10.9
Andorra< 1%< 1%< 1%123.5519-23.1

Group J

ProbabilitiesPointGD
CountryAt least
Playoff		At least
Second		Group
Winner		Min25%Average75%MaxAverage
Portugal100%99.75%97.8%122526.9283030.9
Bosnia and Herzegovina100%43%1.1%31416.318275.8
Slovakia33%33%< 1%41415.517283.4
Iceland24%19%< 1%31214.216274.2
Luxembourg45%5%< 1%1911.21325-8
Liechtenstein< 1%< 1%< 1%001.4315-36.2

Ranking

The ranking decides the seeding of the Euro Finals
The ranking is decided by group position, higher number of points, superior goal difference etc.


ProbabilitiesAverage Outcome
GroupCountryEuroPlayoff2nd1stPot 4Pot 3Pot 2Pot 1RankGrp RnkPtsGD
JPortugal99.90%< 1%1.9%97.8%< 1%1.4%25%73%5120.922.1
FBelgium99.79%< 1%6%93%< 1%4.4%20%74%5.11.121.120.6
ISwitzerland99.84%< 1%4.2%95.4%< 1%3.0%33%63%5.9120.319.5
BFrance99.41%1.7%19%80%1.3%11%31%56%7.11.219.919.4
CEngland98.6%3.2%22%75%2.7%16%39%41%8.51.319.314.6
GSerbia99.32%1.5%33%66%2.5%22%34%41%8.81.419.413.5
DCroatia98.4%3.7%26%70%3.9%20%46%29%9.61.318.514.4
ASpain98.9%3.6%20%76%4.8%16%53%25%9.81.31815.9
HDenmark98.1%4.8%17%78%7%13%61%18%10.61.317.512.9
ECzechia95.1%8%42%50%7%33%40%15%12.11.617.313
EPoland96.4%6%47%47%7%36%39%14%12.21.617.410.3
GHungary95.8%8%59%34%9%41%28%18%12.61.717.412.2
BNetherlands97.1%10%71%19%11%46%31%10%13.61.917.211.2
CItaly93%23%56%21%20%43%22%7%15.2216.111.3
DWales84%25%49%25%18%37%23%6%15.9215.76.9
AScotland82%30%51%19%24%36%18%3.3%17.42.214.94.7
FAustria72%43%52%5%28%35%7%1.6%19.32.414.13.2
HFinland69%43%45%12%31%25%12%< 1%19.62.413.42.5
IRomania59%< 1%55%3.7%36%18%3.9%< 1%212.511.90.3
HSlovenia50%35%33%10%23%16%9%< 1%21.12.712.50.3
FSweden42%< 1%41%1.5%12%27%3.0%< 1%21.42.612.94.5
CUkraine60%74%21%3.8%39%16%4.8%< 1%21.72.812.93.7
DTurkey47%72%24%4.5%25%17%4.8%< 1%22.22.712.81.5
JBosnia and Herzegovina55%57%42%1.1%44%10%1.2%< 1%22.32.910.8-0.6
ANorway43%59%20%3.5%28%11%3.5%< 1%22.6311.40.8
IIsrael48%68%31%< 1%39%8%< 1%< 1%22.8310.2-1.3
JSlovakia33%< 1%32%< 1%26%6%< 1%< 1%23.23.110.1-2.6
EAlbania22%80%10%2.6%12%7%2.7%< 1%23.63.1111.1
BGreece50%92%7%1.1%43%5%1.3%< 1%23.83.310.90.6
AGeorgia44%90%8%1.5%38%3.8%1.5%< 1%23.93.69.4-2.5
JIceland20%4.5%19%< 1%17%2.3%< 1%< 1%243.68.4-6.2
GMontenegro8%< 1%8%< 1%2.6%5%< 1%< 1%24.33.110.9-2.4
IKosovo8%< 1%8%< 1%5%2.4%< 1%< 1%24.53.98.4-4.1
BIreland9%25%3.2%< 1%7%2.2%< 1%< 1%24.63.69.5-0.4
HNorthern Ireland3.9%< 1%3.5%< 1%2.7%< 1%< 1%< 1%24.74.27.1-6.3
JLuxembourg7%39%5%< 1%7%< 1%< 1%< 1%24.74.46.1-12.5
HKazakhstan5%98.3%1.6%< 1%4.7%< 1%< 1%< 1%24.94.56.7-9.4
CNorth Macedonia1.7%< 1%1.5%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%24.93.97.9-8.7
FEstonia2.5%96.8%< 1%< 1%2.3%< 1%< 1%< 1%24.94.35.1-11.1
EFaroe Islands1.2%< 1%1.1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%24.947.3-10.7
IBelarus1.5%< 1%1.5%< 1%1.4%< 1%< 1%< 1%24.94.64.6-12.4
GBulgaria< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%2546.8-7
DLatvia1.1%86%< 1%< 1%1.1%< 1%< 1%< 1%254.63.9-13.1
DArmenia< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%254.35.5-9.7
FAzerbaijan< 1%8%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%254.64.2-17.2
EMoldova< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%254.83.6-13.7
ACyprus< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%254.92.6-18.9
GLithuania< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%254.83-16.3
IAndorra< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%255.90.4-2.1
CMalta< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%2551.5-20.9
JLiechtenstein< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%2560-0.3


Playoff teams are selected in each of League A, B and C
from the best-ranked team not yet qualified (in Top 2).
If one of those leagues have fewer than four non-qualified
teams, those spots are taken by League D group winners
(unless already qualified)

League ATop 2PlayoffHome Advantage
BNetherlands90%10%10%
DCroatia96.3%3.7%3.7%
ASpain96.4%3.6%3.6%
CItaly77%23%23%
HDenmark95.2%4.8%4.5%
JPortugal99.75%< 1%< 1%
FBelgium99.43%< 1%< 1%
GHungary92%8%7%
ISwitzerland99.65%< 1%< 1%

Germany


EPoland94%6%6%
BFrance98.3%1.7%1.6%
FAustria57%43%38%
ECzechia92%8%6%
CEngland96.8%3.2%2.5%
DWales75%25%18%
League BTop 2PlayoffHome Advantage
IIsrael32%68%68%
JBosnia and Herzegovina43%57%57%
GSerbia98.5%1.5%< 1%
AScotland70%30%18%
HFinland57%43%26%
CUkraine24%74%40%
EAlbania12%80%32%
ANorway24%59%18%
HSlovenia42%35%9%
BIreland3.4%25%6%
JIceland19%4.5%1.1%
GMontenegro8%< 1%
IRomania59%< 1%
FSweden42%< 1%
DArmenia< 1%< 1%
League CTop 2PlayoffHome Advantage
AGeorgia10%90%90%
BGreece8%92%92%
DTurkey28%72%12%
HKazakhstan1.7%98.3%5%
JLuxembourg5%39%< 1%
FAzerbaijan< 1%8%< 1%
IKosovo8%< 1%< 1%
GBulgaria< 1%< 1%
EFaroe Islands1.2%< 1%
CNorth Macedonia1.7%< 1%
JSlovakia33%

HNorthern Ireland3.9%

ACyprus< 1%

IBelarus1.5%

GLithuania< 1%

BGibraltar


League DTop 2PlayoffHome Advantage
FEstonia< 1%96.8%
DLatvia< 1%86%
EMoldova< 1%

CMalta< 1%

IAndorra< 1%

HSan Marino


JLiechtenstein< 1%



GroupCountryPlayoff2nd1stEuroLast 16QFSemiFinalChamp
ASpain3.6%20%76%98.9%89%61%39%23%13%
BNetherlands10%71%19%97.1%89%61%38%23%13%

Germany


100%77%53%34%21%13%
FBelgium< 1%6%93%99.79%85%56%34%20%11%
BFrance1.7%19%80%99.41%84%54%31%17%9%
JPortugal< 1%1.9%97.8%99.90%83%53%31%17%9%
CItaly23%56%21%93%82%52%29%16%8%
HDenmark4.8%17%78%98.1%82%49%27%13%6%
ISwitzerland< 1%4.2%95.4%99.84%75%40%20%9%3.8%
DCroatia3.7%26%70%98.4%76%41%20%9%3.7%
CEngland3.2%22%75%98.6%75%40%19%8%3.5%
GSerbia1.5%33%66%99.32%72%36%16%7%2.5%
GHungary8%59%34%95.8%63%27%10%3.4%1.1%
EPoland6%47%47%96.4%61%24%8%2.7%< 1%
CUkraine74%21%3.8%60%43%18%7%2.2%< 1%
ECzechia8%42%50%95.1%56%21%7%2.0%< 1%
DWales25%49%25%84%52%20%7%1.9%< 1%
AScotland30%51%19%82%48%16%5.0%1.3%< 1%
FAustria43%52%5%72%39%12%3.3%< 1%< 1%
ANorway59%20%3.5%43%26%9%2.5%< 1%< 1%
FSweden< 1%41%1.5%42%24%8%2.1%< 1%< 1%
HFinland43%45%12%69%32%9%2.0%< 1%< 1%
BGreece92%7%1.1%50%27%8%1.9%< 1%< 1%
DTurkey72%24%4.5%47%23%6%1.6%< 1%< 1%
AGeorgia90%8%1.5%44%21%5%1.1%< 1%< 1%
HSlovenia35%33%10%50%20%4.8%< 1%< 1%< 1%
IRomania< 1%55%3.7%59%22%4.5%< 1%< 1%< 1%
JBosnia and Herzegovina57%42%1.1%55%21%4.4%< 1%< 1%< 1%
IIsrael68%31%< 1%48%20%4.4%< 1%< 1%< 1%
JSlovakia
32%< 1%33%11%1.9%< 1%< 1%< 1%
BIreland25%3.2%< 1%9%4.6%1.3%< 1%< 1%< 1%
EAlbania80%10%2.6%22%6%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
JIceland4.5%19%< 1%20%6%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
GMontenegro< 1%8%< 1%8%2.2%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
IKosovo< 1%8%< 1%8%1.9%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
JLuxembourg39%5%< 1%7%1.2%< 1%< 1%< 1%
HNorthern Ireland
3.5%< 1%3.9%1.1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
EFaroe Islands< 1%1.1%< 1%1.2%< 1%< 1%< 1%

DArmenia< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%

JLiechtenstein
< 1%
< 1%




DLatvia86%< 1%< 1%1.1%< 1%< 1%


CMalta
< 1%
< 1%< 1%



IBelarus
1.5%< 1%1.5%< 1%< 1%< 1%

IAndorra
< 1%
< 1%




CNorth Macedonia< 1%1.5%< 1%1.7%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
FAzerbaijan8%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%

HKazakhstan98.3%1.6%< 1%5%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
HSan Marino








EMoldova
< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%


BGibraltar








GLithuania
< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%



GBulgaria< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
ACyprus
< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%


FEstonia96.8%< 1%< 1%2.5%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
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