Sunday, September 24, 2023

PL: Aston Villa vs Brighton in CL race

Coming weekend a match between two teams in the CL race when Aston Villa play Brighton. Important matches for the relegation race between when Luton play Burnley and Everton. 

Hot Teams
Tottenham: 13 points in the last 5 matches, 4.9 more than expected
Liverpool: 15 points in the last 5 matches, 4.9 more than expected
Aston Villa: 12 points in the last 5 matches, 4.6 more than expected
Brighton: 12 points in the last 5 matches, 3.8 more than expected
West Ham: 9 points in the last 5 matches, 3.0 more than expected

Cold Teams
Burnley: 1 point in the last 5 matches, 4.5 less than expected
Chelsea: 4 points in the last 5 matches, 4.1 less than expected
Brentford: 5 points in the last 5 matches, 3.4 less than expected
Sheffield United: 1 point in the last 5 matches, 3.3 less than expected
Luton: 1 point in the last 5 matches, 3.0 less than expected



Average Simulated
Season
Probabilities
PtsTeamPtsGDRelegatedTop 7Top 6Top 5Top 4Win LeagueECLELCL
18Man City90.4+63< 1%>99.99%>99.99%99.99%99.94%88%< 1%< 1%99.97%
16Liverpool78.2+40< 1%99.53%98.8%97.3%94%9%< 1%3.0%96.1%
14Arsenal71.9+28< 1%95.9%92%85%74%1.8%3.7%15%77%
14Tottenham65.0+19< 1%79%67%53%36%< 1%11%30%36%
9Newcastle63.3+25< 1%73%60%45%29%< 1%12%27%32%
15Brighton63.2+16< 1%71%58%43%27%< 1%12%29%31%
12Aston Villa60.7+9< 1%57%42%28%16%< 1%10%37%16%
9Man United59.5+7< 1%50%36%23%12%< 1%13%23%15%
10West Ham57.4+6< 1%38%25%15%8%< 1%11%17%13%
6Brentford52.7+4< 1%17%10%5%2.2%< 1%9%8%2.2%
8Crystal Palace49.6-61.6%8%4.2%2.0%< 1%< 1%4.5%3.7%< 1%
8Fulham48.5-112.4%6%3.3%1.5%< 1%< 1%3.5%3.4%< 1%
5Chelsea46.8-63.7%4.2%2.0%< 1%< 1%< 1%3.4%2.8%< 1%
7Forest42.4-1712%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%2.1%< 1%
4Wolves40.7-2017%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
1Burnley38.5-2427%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
4Everton37.6-2432%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%2.6%< 1%
3Bournemouth35.9-2641%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%1.3%< 1%
1Sheffield United30.2-3976%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
1Luton27.7-4386%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%


Titles
TeamOne TitleTwo titlesThree titlesFour titlesDoubleTrebleQuadruple
Man City97.6%74%33%6%38%16%6%
Liverpool54%13%1.2%< 1%< 1%

Arsenal27%2.9%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
Tottenham11%< 1%< 1%
< 1%

Newcastle13%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
Brighton15%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%

Aston Villa26%1.2%< 1%< 1%< 1%

Man United12%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
West Ham11%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%

Brentford4.3%< 1%< 1%
< 1%

Crystal Palace2.2%< 1%< 1%
< 1%

Fulham2.2%< 1%< 1%
< 1%

Chelsea3.1%< 1%< 1%
< 1%

Forest2.3%< 1%




Wolves< 1%< 1%




Burnley1.0%< 1%




Everton3.0%< 1%




Bournemouth1.6%< 1%




Sheffield United1.1%< 1%




Luton< 1%< 1%




Important matches for CL race
Aston Villa vs Brighton (2.1%)Home Win (47%)Draw (24%)Away Win (29%)
Aston Villa21%14%10%
Brighton26%30%39%



LiverpoolArsenalTottenhamNewcastleBrightonAston VillaMan UnitedWest HamBrentford
pointsQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChance
8137%5%100%11%2.5%>99.99%1.4%< 1%99.9%< 1%< 1%99.9%< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%-
8043%6%>99.99%14%3.0%100%2.0%< 1%99.9%1.0%< 1%99.9%1.1%< 1%99.9%< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%-
7949%6%>99.99%17%3.5%99.97%2.8%< 1%99.9%1.5%< 1%99.9%1.6%< 1%99.9%< 1%< 1%99.8%< 1%< 1%99%< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%-
7854%6%99.98%21%3.9%99.9%3.9%1.1%99.7%2.2%< 1%99.8%2.3%< 1%99.7%< 1%< 1%99%< 1%< 1%99.8%< 1%< 1%99%< 1%< 1%100%
7760%6%99.96%26%4.5%99.9%5%1.3%99.4%3.1%< 1%99.6%3.2%< 1%99.5%1.4%< 1%99%< 1%< 1%99%< 1%< 1%99%< 1%< 1%99%
7666%5%99.9%30%4.9%99.7%7%1.7%99.0%4.2%1.1%99.1%4.3%1.1%99%1.9%< 1%98%1.2%< 1%99%< 1%< 1%99%< 1%< 1%98%
7571%5%99.7%36%5%99.2%9%2.1%98%6%1.5%98%6%1.5%98%2.7%< 1%97%1.7%< 1%96%< 1%< 1%98%< 1%< 1%97%
7475%4.7%99.4%41%5%98.6%12%2.5%96%8%1.8%96%8%1.8%96%3.7%< 1%95%2.5%< 1%94%1.2%< 1%96%< 1%< 1%95%
7380%4.3%98.7%47%6%97.3%15%3.0%93%10%2.2%94%10%2.2%92%5.0%1.3%91%3.4%< 1%90%1.7%< 1%91%< 1%< 1%92%
7284%3.8%97.5%52%6%95%18%3.4%89%12%2.7%90%12%2.6%87%7%1.6%85%4.6%1.2%85%2.4%< 1%86%< 1%< 1%85%
7187%3.3%95%58%6%91%22%3.9%82%16%3.2%84%15%3.1%81%9%2.0%77%6%1.5%77%3.3%< 1%78%< 1%< 1%78%
7090%2.8%92%63%5%85%26%4.4%74%19%3.6%76%19%3.6%73%11%2.4%68%8%1.9%67%4.5%1.2%69%< 1%< 1%69%
6992%2.3%87%69%5%78%31%4.8%65%23%4.1%68%23%4.0%63%14%2.8%56%10%2.3%56%6%1.5%58%1.3%< 1%60%
6894%1.9%81%73%4.9%68%36%5%53%28%4.5%57%28%4.5%52%17%3.3%44%13%2.8%45%8%1.8%46%1.9%< 1%46%
6795.4%1.5%73%78%4.4%58%42%5%41%33%4.9%45%32%4.8%41%21%3.8%33%16%3.2%34%10%2.2%35%2.7%< 1%33%
6696.6%1.2%65%82%4.0%47%47%5%30%38%5%34%38%5%31%25%4.2%23%20%3.7%24%13%2.7%26%3.7%< 1%23%
6597.5%< 1%56%85%3.5%35%53%6%20%43%5%25%43%5%22%30%4.6%15%24%4.2%16%16%3.1%19%5.0%1.3%14%
6498.3%< 1%49%88%3.0%26%58%6%12%49%6%18%48%6%15%35%5.0%8%29%4.6%11%19%3.6%13%7%1.6%8%
6398.8%< 1%44%91%2.5%19%64%5%7%55%6%12%54%6%11%40%5%4.3%34%4.9%8%24%4.1%9%9%2.0%4%
6299.17%< 1%39%93%2.1%14%69%5%3.5%60%5%9%60%6%8%45%5%2.0%39%5%6%28%4.5%7%11%2.4%1.8%
6199.45%< 1%37%95%1.7%11%73%4.8%1.6%65%5%7%65%5%6%51%6%< 1%45%5%4.3%33%4.9%6%14%2.8%< 1%
6099.64%< 1%35%96.0%1.4%10%78%4.4%< 1%70%5.0%6%70%5%6%57%6%< 1%50%6%4.0%38%5%6%17%3.3%< 1%
5999.76%< 1%33%97.1%1.1%10%82%3.9%< 1%75%4.6%5%75%4.7%5%62%5%< 1%56%6%3.8%44%5%5%21%3.8%< 1%
5899.85%< 1%35%97.9%< 1%10%85%3.5%< 1%79%4.2%5%79%4.3%5%67%5%< 1%61%5%3.7%49%6%5%25%4.2%< 1%
5799.91%< 1%33%98.5%< 1%10%88%3.0%< 1%83%3.8%5%83%3.9%5%72%4.9%< 1%66%5%4.0%55%6%6%30%4.6%< 1%
5699.94%< 1%39%99.0%< 1%8%91%2.5%< 1%86%3.3%5%86%3.4%5%77%4.5%< 1%71%4.9%3.7%60%5%5%35%5.0%< 1%
5599.97%< 1%35%99.32%< 1%9%93%2.1%< 1%89%2.8%5%89%2.9%5%81%4.1%< 1%76%4.6%3.8%65%5%5%40%5%< 1%
5499.98%< 1%32%99.54%< 1%10%95%1.7%< 1%92%2.4%5%91%2.5%5%84%3.6%< 1%80%4.1%3.7%70%5%5%45%5%< 1%
5399.99%< 1%-99.70%< 1%9%96.0%1.4%< 1%93%2.0%5%93%2.0%5%87%3.1%< 1%84%3.7%3.8%75%4.7%5%51%6%< 1%
52>99.99%< 1%-99.81%< 1%9%97.1%1.1%< 1%95.1%1.6%5%95.1%1.6%5%90%2.7%< 1%87%3.2%4%79%4.2%5%57%6%< 1%
51>99.99%< 1%-99.88%< 1%10%97.9%< 1%< 1%96.4%1.3%5%96.4%1.3%5%92%2.2%< 1%90%2.8%4%83%3.8%5%62%5%< 1%
50>99.99%< 1%-99.92%< 1%9%98.6%< 1%< 1%97.4%< 1%5%97.4%1.0%6%94%1.8%< 1%92%2.3%4%86%3.3%6%67%5%< 1%
Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points



Important matches for avoiding relegation
Luton vs Burnley (2.3%)Home Win (36%)Draw (24%)Away Win (40%)
Burnley66%71%80%
Luton20%13%10%
Everton vs Luton (2.3%)Home Win (59%)Draw (21%)Away Win (20%)
Everton74%64%58%
Luton11%15%22%



LutonSheffield UnitedBournemouthEvertonBurnleyWolvesForestChelseaFulhamCrystal Palace
pointsQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChance
54< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%100%1.1%< 1%100%1.7%< 1%100%3.3%< 1%100%6%1.4%100%17%3.3%100%24%4.1%100%29%4.6%100%
53< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%100%1.6%< 1%100%2.4%< 1%100%4.5%1.2%100%7%1.8%100%21%3.8%100%29%4.5%100%34%5.0%100%
52< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%100%1.3%< 1%100%2.2%< 1%100%3.3%< 1%100%6%1.5%100%10%2.1%100%25%4.2%100%33%4.9%100%39%5%100%
51< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%100%1.8%< 1%100%3.1%< 1%100%4.5%1.2%100%8%1.9%100%12%2.6%100%30%4.7%100%39%5%100%44%5%100%
50< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%100%2.5%< 1%100%4.2%1.1%100%6%1.5%100%10%2.3%100%15%3.0%100%35%5.0%100%44%5%100%50%6%100%
49< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%100%3.5%< 1%100%6%1.4%100%8%1.8%100%13%2.7%100%19%3.6%100%40%5%100%50%6%100%56%6%100%
48< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%100%4.7%1.2%100%7%1.8%100%10%2.2%100%16%3.2%100%23%4.0%100%46%6%100%55%6%100%61%6%100%
47< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%100%6%1.5%100%10%2.2%100%13%2.7%100%20%3.7%100%27%4.5%100%51%6%100%61%6%100%66%5%100%
46< 1%< 1%100%1.2%< 1%100%8%1.9%100%12%2.6%>99.99%16%3.1%100%24%4.3%100%32%4.9%100%57%6%100%66%5%100%72%5%100%
45< 1%< 1%100%1.7%< 1%100%10%2.3%>99.99%15%3.1%100%19%3.6%100%29%4.7%100%37%5%100%62%5%100%71%5%100%76%4.7%100%
44< 1%< 1%99.9%2.4%< 1%99.9%13%2.8%>99.99%19%3.6%>99.99%24%4.1%>99.99%34%5%99.98%43%6%>99.99%68%5%>99.99%76%4.7%99.99%80%4.2%>99.99%
431.4%< 1%99.9%3.3%< 1%99.8%16%3.3%99.9%23%4.1%99.9%28%4.5%99.9%39%5%99.95%49%6%99.97%73%4.9%99.98%80%4.2%99.97%84%3.7%99.97%
421.9%< 1%99.5%4.5%1.2%99.5%20%3.8%99.7%28%4.6%99.7%33%5.0%99.8%45%6%99.8%54%6%99.8%77%4.5%99.9%84%3.8%99.9%87%3.3%99.9%
412.7%< 1%98%6%1.5%98%24%4.2%99.1%33%5%99.3%38%5%99.3%51%6%99.6%60%6%99.6%81%4.2%99.7%87%3.3%99.5%90%2.8%99.6%
403.7%1.0%96%8%1.9%96%29%4.7%97.7%38%5%98.0%44%5%98.2%56%6%98.6%65%5%98.8%85%3.6%99.1%90%2.8%98.9%93%2.3%99.0%
395%1.3%91%10%2.4%91%34%5%95%44%6%95.6%49%6%95.9%62%6%96.7%71%5%97.0%88%3.2%97.8%92%2.3%97%94%1.9%97%
387%1.7%84%13%2.9%84%40%5%90%50%6%91%55%6%92%67%5%93%75%4.8%94%91%2.7%95%94%1.9%94%95.9%1.5%94%
379%2.1%73%17%3.4%74%46%6%83%56%6%84%61%6%85%73%5%87%80%4.4%88%93%2.2%91%95.8%1.5%88%97.0%1.2%88%
3611%2.6%59%21%3.9%61%52%6%72%61%6%75%66%5%75%77%4.7%78%84%3.9%80%95%1.8%82%96.9%1.2%80%97.9%< 1%80%
3514%3.1%46%25%4.4%47%57%6%60%67%6%63%71%5%64%82%4.2%68%87%3.4%69%96.1%1.4%72%97.8%< 1%68%98.6%< 1%68%
3418%3.7%32%30%4.9%34%63%6%47%72%5%51%76%4.8%51%85%3.7%55%90%2.9%56%97.2%1.1%60%98.5%< 1%54%99.05%< 1%54%
3322%4.2%21%35%5%23%69%5%34%77%4.8%38%80%4.4%38%88%3.2%41%92%2.4%43%98.1%< 1%45%99.00%< 1%40%99.38%< 1%42%
3227%4.7%12%41%6%14%74%5%23%81%4.3%26%84%3.8%27%91%2.7%29%94%2.0%31%98.7%< 1%31%99.34%< 1%28%99.59%< 1%30%
3132%5%7%47%6%8%78%4.7%15%85%3.8%17%88%3.3%17%93%2.2%19%96.0%1.6%20%99.11%< 1%22%99.58%< 1%18%99.75%< 1%17%
3038%6%3.4%53%6%4.0%83%4.2%8%88%3.3%10%90%2.8%10%95.1%1.8%12%97.2%1.2%12%99.42%< 1%12%99.75%< 1%11%99.85%< 1%10%
2944%6%1.5%59%6%1.9%86%3.7%5%91%2.8%6%93%2.3%5%96.5%1.4%6%98.0%< 1%7%99.63%< 1%9%99.85%< 1%6%99.91%< 1%5%
2850%6%< 1%65%6%< 1%89%3.1%2.4%93%2.2%3%95%1.9%3%97.5%1.0%3%98.7%< 1%3%99.77%< 1%4%99.91%< 1%2%99.95%< 1%4%
2756%6%< 1%71%6%< 1%92%2.6%1.1%95.3%1.8%1.5%96.1%1.5%1.2%98.3%< 1%2%99.14%< 1%2%99.86%< 1%2%99.95%< 1%1%99.97%< 1%1%
2662%6%< 1%76%5%< 1%94%2.1%< 1%96.6%1.4%< 1%97.2%1.1%< 1%98.9%< 1%< 1%99.45%< 1%< 1%99.91%< 1%1%99.97%< 1%< 1%99.99%< 1%< 1%
2568%6%< 1%80%4.7%< 1%95.8%1.6%< 1%97.7%1.1%< 1%98.1%< 1%< 1%99.28%< 1%< 1%99.66%< 1%< 1%99.95%< 1%< 1%99.98%< 1%1%>99.99%< 1%-
2474%5%< 1%84%4.1%< 1%97.0%1.3%< 1%98.5%< 1%< 1%98.7%< 1%< 1%99.55%< 1%< 1%99.80%< 1%< 1%99.97%< 1%< 1%>99.99%< 1%->99.99%< 1%-
2379%5%< 1%88%3.6%< 1%98.0%< 1%< 1%99.0%< 1%< 1%99.15%< 1%< 1%99.73%< 1%< 1%99.89%< 1%< 1%99.99%< 1%< 1%>99.99%< 1%->99.99%< 1%-
Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points




EuropeEL (or CL)CL
Fourth team100%100%99.31%
Fifth team99.98%99.90%4.7%
FA cup winners100%100%63%
League cup winners>99.99%75%66%
Sixth team94%74%3.7%
Seventh team66%15%3.1%
Eighth team20%9%2.6%


Simulated points for winner: 87 - 95
Simulated points for fourth: 67 - 71
Simulated points for 17th team: 34 - 38

Coming Matches
Home
Draw
Away
Aston Villa47%24%29%Brighton
Everton59%21%20%Luton
Man United59%21%20%Crystal Palace
Newcastle68%18%14%Burnley
West Ham68%18%14%Sheffield United
Wolves13%17%69%Man City
Bournemouth21%22%57%Arsenal
Tottenham36%24%40%Liverpool
Forest34%24%42%Brentford
Fulham45%24%31%Chelsea
Luton36%24%40%Burnley