The European playoff was drawn last week and resulted in the following matches:

a) Greece - Romania
b) Iceland - Croatia
c) Portugal - Sweden
d) Ukraine - France

Simulating the matches given that draw gives the following probabilities:

Country	Qual	Oct 1	May 1	Champ	Oct 1	May 1
Brazil	100	+0.0	+0.0	34.3	-0.3	+8.7
Japan	100	+0.0	+0.0	0.04	-0.0	-0.3
Argentina	100	+0.0	+0.0	7.7	-1.9	-0.3
Netherlands	100	+0.0	+0.0	6.7	+2.3	+1.9
Colombia	100	+0.0	+0.5	2.22	+0.1	+0.8
South Korea	100	+0.0	+1.8	0.012	-0.0	-0.2
Italy	100	+0.0	+4.6	2.16	-1.1	+0.3
United States	100	+0.0	+15.6	0.63	+0.2	+0.6
Australia	100	+0.0	+21.4	0.025	-0.0	-0.1
Costa Rica	100	+0.0	+52.4	0.04	-0.0	+0.0
Iran	100	+0.0	+58.5	0.019	-0.0	+0.0
Spain	100	+0.1	+0.4	20.6	-0.9	-9.5
Switzerland	100	+0.1	+5.2	0.5	-0.2	+0.2
Germany	100	+0.1	+0.7	13.6	+2.5	+0.6
Belgium	100	+0.7	+49.4	1.03	+0.0	+1.0
Chile	100	+1.1	+23.6	0.86	+0.2	+0.6
Ecuador	100	+6.8	+1.2	0.31	+0.0	-0.3
Russia	100	+7.0	+1.0	0.57	-0.1	-0.7
England	100	+9.6	+6.8	3.43	+0.6	-1.1
Honduras	100	+10.9	+43.2	0.011	+0.0	+0.0
Bosnia and Herzegov	100	+11.6	+29.9	0.22	+0.0	+0.2
Ghana	99.87	+50.7	+61.2	0.05	+0.0	+0.0
Nigeria	97.53	+6.0	+45.7	0.05	+0.0	+0.0
Ivory Coast	96.73	+11.2	+8.4	0.24	+0.0	-0.4
Uruguay	90.7	-3.3	+61.0	2.22	-0.2	+2.1
Croatia	85.6	+19.6	-3.1	0.27	-0.4	-0.6
Mexico	72.7	+24.7	-24.2	0.04	+0.0	-2.3
Cameroon	72	+13.8	+49.1	0.001	+0.0	+0.0
Burkina Faso	70.6	+24.8	+65.7	0.001	+0.0	+0.0
Greece	67.1	+0.3	-0.6	0.29	+0.0	+0.1
France	60.5	+6.6	-8.0	0.67	+0.2	+0.2
Portugal	55.7	-21.8	-17.9	0.75	-0.7	-1.2
Sweden	44.3	-12.7	-21.2	0.34	-0.3	-0.3
Ukraine	39.5	-17.3	+28.2	0.15	-0.1	+0.1
Romania	32.9	+16.5	+8.5	0.02	+0.0	-0.0
Algeria	29.4	-24.8	+12.8	0.0002	-0.0	+0.0
Tunisia	28	-13.8	-28.6	0.0001	-0.0	-0.0
New Zealand	27.3	-4.5	-9.1	0.0003	-0.0	-0.0
Iceland	14.4	+9.9	+12.1	0.0001	+0.0	+0.0
Jordan	9.3	-3.7	-8.7	0.0001	+0.0	+0.0
Senegal	3.27	-11.2	-14.0	0	-0.0	+0.0
Ethiopia	2.47	-6.0	-1.2	0	+0.0	+0.0
Egypt	0.13	-50.7	-74.4	0.0001	-0.0	-0.0

Congratulations to Spain, Russia, England, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Honduras, Ecuador, and Chile, which all have qualified for World Cup.

In Europe, Denmark became the unlucky runner-up missing the playoff. In the draw of the playoff, Croatia, Greece, Portugal, and Ukraine are seeded and will play one of the following countries: France, Iceland, Romania, and Sweden.

In North and Central America Honduras secured qualification aftera draw against Jamaica. Mexico needed to at least draw against Costa Rica to secure playoff against New Zealand, but failed doing so and instead lost with 2-1. Instead Mexico were helped by USA who won against Panama.

In South America everyone expected Chile and Ecuador to draw as that would qualify both countries. Chile had other plans scored twice before Ecuador manage to finalize the scoreboard to 2-1. That gave Uruguay a small chance to win the qualification, if they could beat Argentina. They managed to pull in the victory but with a couple of too few goals, and will now play Jordan in inter-continental playoff.

In Africa the first leg of the final playoff have been played with the following result:

Ivory Coast 3 - 1 Senegal
Ethiopia      1 - 2 Nigeria
Tunisia        0 - 0 Cameroon
Ghana         6 - 1 Egypt
Burkina Fa 3 - 2 Algeria

We now have 20 countries that  have qualified for the finals in Brazil, which means there are 11 more slots to fill; 4 countries from Europe, 5 from Africa, and two from the intercontinental playoffs: Mexico-New Zealand and Uruguay-Jordan.

Below is the table with remaining countries chances as usual.

Country	Qual	Oct-01	May-01	Champ	Oct-01	May-01
Brazil	100	+0.0	+0.0	34.3	-0.3	+8.7
Japan	100	+0.0	+0.0	0.04	-0.0	-0.3
Argentina	100	+0.0	+0.0	7.7	-1.9	-0.3
Netherlands	100	+0.0	+0.0	5.7	+1.3	+0.9
Colombia	100	+0.0	+0.5	2.21	+0.1	+0.8
South Korea	100	+0.0	+1.8	0.009	-0.0	-0.2
Italy	100	+0.0	+4.6	2.24	-1.0	+0.4
United States	100	+0.0	+15.6	0.62	+0.2	+0.5
Australia	100	+0.0	+21.4	0.024	-0.0	-0.1
Costa Rica	100	+0.0	+52.4	0.05	+0.0	+0.0
Iran	100	+0.0	+58.5	0.018	-0.0	+0.0
Spain	100	+0.1	+0.4	20.8	-0.7	-9.3
Switzerland	100	+0.1	+5.2	0.75	+0.1	+0.5
Germany	100	+0.1	+0.7	13.9	+2.8	+0.9
Belgium	100	+0.7	+49.4	1.06	+0.0	+1.0
Chile	100	+1.1	+23.6	0.9	+0.2	+0.7
Ecuador	100	+6.8	+1.2	0.32	+0.0	-0.3
Russia	100	+7.0	+1.0	0.55	-0.1	-0.8
England	100	+9.6	+6.8	3.39	+0.6	-1.1
Honduras	100	+10.9	+43.2	0.011	+0.0	+0.0
Bosnia and Herzegov	100	+11.6	+29.9	0.22	+0.0	+0.2
Ghana	99.87	+50.7	+61.2	0.05	+0.0	+0.0
Nigeria	97.56	+6.1	+45.8	0.05	+0.0	+0.0
Ivory Coast	96.7	+11.2	+8.4	0.26	+0.1	-0.4
Uruguay	90.8	-3.2	+61.1	2.25	-0.2	+2.1
Mexico	72.6	+24.6	-24.3	0.04	+0.0	-2.3
Cameroon	72	+13.8	+49.1	0.001	+0.0	+0.0
Burkina Faso	70.5	+24.7	+65.6	0.001	+0.0	+0.0
Portugal	68.9	-8.6	-4.7	0.92	-0.5	-1.0
Greece	59.8	-7.0	-7.9	0.26	-0.0	+0.1
Ukraine	58.7	+1.9	+47.4	0.22	+0.0	+0.2
France	57.6	+3.7	-10.9	0.65	+0.2	+0.2
Croatia	57.2	-8.8	-31.5	0.17	-0.5	-0.7
Sweden	53.9	-3.1	-11.6	0.42	-0.2	-0.3
Romania	31.6	+15.2	+7.2	0.016	+0.0	-0.0
Algeria	29.5	-24.7	+12.9	0.0004	-0.0	+0.0
Tunisia	28	-13.8	-28.6	0.0002	+0.0	-0.0
New Zealand	27.4	-4.4	-9.0	0.0002	-0.0	-0.0
Iceland	12.3	+7.8	+10.0	0	+0.0	+0.0
Jordan	9.2	-3.8	-8.8	0.0001	+0.0	+0.0
Senegal	3.3	-11.2	-14.0	0	-0.0	+0.0
Ethiopia	2.44	-6.1	-1.2	0	+0.0	+0.0
Egypt	0.13	-50.7	-74.4	0	-0.0	-0.0

CONCACAF

3. Honduras 14 +1
4. Mexico 11 -1
5. Panama 8 +3

Honduras will clinch qualification if they do not lose against Jamaica or Mexico fail winning against Costa Rica.
Mexico will clinch qualification if they win against Costa Rica, and Honduras lose against Jamaica, and one of the wins is at least with two goals margin. Mexico will clinch playoff if they do not lose against Costa Rica, or if Panama fail winning against United States.

Panama will clinch playoff if they win against United States, and Mexico lose against Costa Rica, and one of the wins is with at least two goals margin.

CONMEBOL

Colombia clinched qualification. Ecuador will clinch qualification if they do not lose against Chile, or if Uruguay fail winning against Argentina. Chile will clinch qualification if they do not lose against Ecuador, or if Uruguay fail winning against Argentina.

UEFA

In Europe Belgium, Germany and Switzerland have clinched qualification. Russia will clinch qualification unless they lose against Azerbaijan and Portugal win against Luxembourg with a total goal difference of seven goals. Bosnia and Herzegovina will clinch qualification if they win against Lithuania (unless Greece win thei last game with 17 goals). England will clinch qualification if they win against Poland, or if they draw and Ukraine fail winning against San Marino. Spain will clinch qualification if they do not lose against Georgia or if France fail winning against Finland.

Sweden, Russia, Portugal, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Greece, England, Spain, and France have clinched at least playoff. One of the following countries will be the ninth runner up and miss playoff: Romania, Croatia, Hungary, Turkey, Slovenia, Armenia, Bulgaria, Denmark, Czechia. The table below shows the probability for each country that they qualify for playoff given that they end up 2nd in the group. Most likely the unlucky runner-up will come from group B.

Group Country                     Playoff  2nd

F	Russia	100.000	0.143
I	Spain	100.000	0.583
H	England	100.000	18.088
G	Bosnia and Herzegovina	100.000	28.142
G	Greece	100.000	71.858
E	Iceland	100.000	81.062
H	Ukraine	100.000	81.912
I	France	100.000	99.418
F	Portugal	100.000	99.857
C	Sweden	100.000	100.000
D	Romania	99.993	75.443
A	Croatia	99.989	100.000
D	Hungary	99.933	5.364
D	Turkey	99.880	19.193
E	Slovenia	95.823	18.938
B	Armenia	44.156	0.062
B	Bulgaria	1.896	42.407
B	Denmark	0.004	55.537
B	Czechia	0.000	1.995

The table below shows the probabity that a country will be seeded in the UEFA playoff given that they qualify for the playoff.

    Gr Country                           Seeded   Playoff

1	I	Spain	100.000	0.583
10	A	Croatia	98.497	99.989
11	F	Portugal	100.000	99.857
12	G	Greece	99.851	71.858
15	F	Russia	0.698	0.143
17	H	England	100.000	18.088
18	G	Bosnia and Herzegovina	57.691	28.142
22	C	Sweden	45.458	100.000
23	B	Denmark	81.818	0.002
25	I	France	3.988	99.418
26	H	Ukraine	48.763	81.912
29	E	Slovenia	31.030	18.147
30	D	Hungary	0.000	5.361
31	D	Romania	0.000	75.438
49	D	Turkey	0.000	19.170
54	E	Iceland	0.000	81.062
55	B	Armenia	0.000	0.027
64	B	Bulgaria	0.000	0.804

Here are the country that still can be World Champions 2014!

Country	Qual	Oct-1	Apr-1	Champ	Oct-1	Apr-1
Brazil	100	+0.0	+0.0	34.6	+0.0	+9.0
Japan	100	+0.0	+0.0	0.08	+0.0	-0.3
Argentina	100	+0.0	+0.0	9.6	+0.0	+1.6
Netherlands	100	+0.0	+0.0	4.4	+0.0	-0.4
Colombia	100	+0.0	+0.5	2.09	-0.0	+0.7
South Korea	100	+0.0	+1.8	0.009	-0.0	-0.2
Italy	100	+0.0	+4.6	3.25	+0.0	+1.4
United States	100	+0.0	+15.6	0.46	+0.0	+0.4
Australia	100	+0.0	+21.4	0.029	+0.0	-0.1
Costa Rica	100	+0.0	+52.4	0.05	+0.0	+0.0
Iran	100	+0.0	+58.5	0.019	-0.0	+0.0
Switzerland	100	+0.1	+5.2	0.66	+0.0	+0.4
Germany	100	+0.1	+0.7	11.1	+0.0	-1.9
Belgium	100	+0.7	+49.4	1.02	+0.0	+0.9
Spain	99.95	+0.1	+0.4	21.4	-0.1	-8.7
Russia	99.93	+6.9	+0.9	0.75	+0.1	-0.6
Chile	99.85	+0.9	+23.4	0.67	+0.0	+0.4
Ecuador	99.8	+6.6	+1.0	0.31	+0.0	-0.3
Honduras	97.32	+8.2	+40.5	0.008	+0.0	+0.0
Nigeria	97.3	+5.8	+45.5	0.05	+0.0	+0.0
Ivory Coast	96.43	+10.9	+8.1	0.23	+0.0	-0.5
England	95.6	+5.2	+2.4	2.95	+0.2	-1.5
Uruguay	90.3	-3.7	+60.6	2.31	-0.1	+2.2
Bosnia and Herzegov	85	-3.4	+14.9	0.18	+0.0	+0.1
Portugal	72.1	-5.4	-1.5	1.29	-0.1	-0.7
Greece	71.5	+4.7	+3.8	0.3	+0.0	+0.1
Cameroon	71.3	+13.1	+48.4	0.001	+0.0	+0.0
Burkina Faso	68.4	+22.6	+63.5	0.001	+0.0	+0.0
Croatia	66.9	+0.9	-21.8	0.67	+0.0	-0.2
Mexico	65	+17.0	-31.9	0.05	+0.0	-2.2
Sweden	61.1	+4.1	-4.4	0.69	+0.0	+0.0
Ukraine	59.1	+2.3	+47.8	0.2	+0.0	+0.2
France	51.1	-2.8	-17.4	0.45	-0.0	-0.0
Egypt	51.1	+0.3	-23.4	0.016	-0.0	-0.0
Ghana	48.9	-0.3	+10.2	0.015	+0.0	+0.0
Algeria	31.6	-22.6	+15.0	0.001	+0.0	+0.0
Tunisia	28.7	-13.1	-27.9	0.0004	+0.0	-0.0
New Zealand	28.5	-3.3	-7.9	0.001	+0.0	+0.0
Romania	20.3	+3.9	-4.1	0.01	+0.0	-0.0
Jordan	10	-3.0	-8.0	0	-0.0	-0.0
Panama	9.1	-21.9	-46.8	0.003	-0.0	-0.0
Iceland	7.4	+2.9	+5.1	0	+0.0	+0.0
Turkey	5	+2.2	+4.4	0.002	+0.0	+0.0
Senegal	3.57	-10.9	-13.7	0	-0.0	+0.0
Slovenia	3.56	+2.2	+3.3	0.0003	+0.0	+0.0
Ethiopia	2.7	-5.8	-1.0	0	+0.0	+0.0
Hungary	1.28	-3.5	-5.1	0.0004	-0.0	-0.0
Bulgaria	0.19	-7.7	-4.9	0	-0.0	-0.0
Armenia	0.002	-0.0	-0.0	0	+0.0	+0.0
Denmark	0.001	-4.1	-11.8	0	-0.0	-0.0