The European playoff was drawn last week and resulted in the following matches:

a) Greece - Romania
b) Iceland - Croatia
c) Portugal - Sweden
d) Ukraine - France

Simulating the matches given that draw gives the following probabilities:

Country	Qual	Oct 1	May 1	Champ	Oct 1	May 1
Brazil	100	+0.0	+0.0	34.3	-0.3	+8.7
Japan	100	+0.0	+0.0	0.04	-0.0	-0.3
Argentina	100	+0.0	+0.0	7.7	-1.9	-0.3
Netherlands	100	+0.0	+0.0	6.7	+2.3	+1.9
Colombia	100	+0.0	+0.5	2.22	+0.1	+0.8
South Korea	100	+0.0	+1.8	0.012	-0.0	-0.2
Italy	100	+0.0	+4.6	2.16	-1.1	+0.3
United States	100	+0.0	+15.6	0.63	+0.2	+0.6
Australia	100	+0.0	+21.4	0.025	-0.0	-0.1
Costa Rica	100	+0.0	+52.4	0.04	-0.0	+0.0
Iran	100	+0.0	+58.5	0.019	-0.0	+0.0
Spain	100	+0.1	+0.4	20.6	-0.9	-9.5
Switzerland	100	+0.1	+5.2	0.5	-0.2	+0.2
Germany	100	+0.1	+0.7	13.6	+2.5	+0.6
Belgium	100	+0.7	+49.4	1.03	+0.0	+1.0
Chile	100	+1.1	+23.6	0.86	+0.2	+0.6
Ecuador	100	+6.8	+1.2	0.31	+0.0	-0.3
Russia	100	+7.0	+1.0	0.57	-0.1	-0.7
England	100	+9.6	+6.8	3.43	+0.6	-1.1
Honduras	100	+10.9	+43.2	0.011	+0.0	+0.0
Bosnia and Herzegov	100	+11.6	+29.9	0.22	+0.0	+0.2
Ghana	99.87	+50.7	+61.2	0.05	+0.0	+0.0
Nigeria	97.53	+6.0	+45.7	0.05	+0.0	+0.0
Ivory Coast	96.73	+11.2	+8.4	0.24	+0.0	-0.4
Uruguay	90.7	-3.3	+61.0	2.22	-0.2	+2.1
Croatia	85.6	+19.6	-3.1	0.27	-0.4	-0.6
Mexico	72.7	+24.7	-24.2	0.04	+0.0	-2.3
Cameroon	72	+13.8	+49.1	0.001	+0.0	+0.0
Burkina Faso	70.6	+24.8	+65.7	0.001	+0.0	+0.0
Greece	67.1	+0.3	-0.6	0.29	+0.0	+0.1
France	60.5	+6.6	-8.0	0.67	+0.2	+0.2
Portugal	55.7	-21.8	-17.9	0.75	-0.7	-1.2
Sweden	44.3	-12.7	-21.2	0.34	-0.3	-0.3
Ukraine	39.5	-17.3	+28.2	0.15	-0.1	+0.1
Romania	32.9	+16.5	+8.5	0.02	+0.0	-0.0
Algeria	29.4	-24.8	+12.8	0.0002	-0.0	+0.0
Tunisia	28	-13.8	-28.6	0.0001	-0.0	-0.0
New Zealand	27.3	-4.5	-9.1	0.0003	-0.0	-0.0
Iceland	14.4	+9.9	+12.1	0.0001	+0.0	+0.0
Jordan	9.3	-3.7	-8.7	0.0001	+0.0	+0.0
Senegal	3.27	-11.2	-14.0	0	-0.0	+0.0
Ethiopia	2.47	-6.0	-1.2	0	+0.0	+0.0
Egypt	0.13	-50.7	-74.4	0.0001	-0.0	-0.0