Champions League After Match Day 5

If two (or more) teams end up with equally many points the following tie-breakers apply:

1. More points in matches involving the tied teams
2. Higher goal difference in matches involving the tied teams
3. More scored goals in matches involving the tied teams
4. More goals scored on the road in matches involving the tied teams
5. If more than 2 teams were tied and two teams are still tied after applying 1-4, re-apply 1-4 on the two tied teams
6. Higher goal difference in all group matches
7. More scored goals in all group matches
8. More goals scored on the road in all group matches

Group A
11 Man United
8 Shakhtar
7 Leverkusen
1 Sociedad

Man United - Shakhtar
Sociedad - Leverkusen

• Man United has clinched qualification
• Shakhtar clinch qualification if they take equally many points against Man United as Leverkusen take against Sociedad.
• Leverkusen clinch qualification if they take more points against Sociedad than Shakhtar take against Man United.
• Sociedad cannot qualify

If Shakhtar and Leverkusen end up on equally many points, Leverkusen will qualify as they won at home against Shakhtar with 4-0 and drew 0-0 away.

Group B
13 Real Madrid
6 Juventus
4 Galatasaray
4 Copenhagen

Galatasaray - Juventus
Copenhagen - Real Madrid

• Real Madrid has clinched qualification
• Juventus clinch qualification if they draw (or win) against Galatasaray
• Galatasaray clinch qualification if they win against Juventus
• Copenhagen cannot qualify

Group C
13 Paris
7 Olympiakos
7 Benfica
1 Anderlecht

Benfica - Paris
Olympiakos - Anderlecht

• Paris has clinched qualification
• Olympiakos clinch qualification if they take at least equally many points against Anderlecht as Benfica take against Paris.
• Benfica clinch qualification if they take more points against Paris than Olympiakos take against Anderlecht.
• Anderlecht cannot qualify

Olympiakos won 1-0 at home against Benfica and drew 0-0 away and will therefore qualify if Olympiakos and Benfica end up with equally many points. 

Group D
15 Munich
12 Man City
3 Moscow
0 Plzen

Munich - Man City
Plzen - Moscow

• Munich has clinched qualification
• Man City has clinched qualification
• Moscow cannot qualify
• Plzen cannot qualify

Group E
9 Chelsea
8 Basel
7 Schalke
3 Bucharest

Chelsea - Bucharest
Schalke - Basel

• Chelsea has clinched qualification
• Basel clinch qualification if they draw (or win) against Schalke
• Schalke clinch qualification if they win against Basel
• Bucharest cannot qualify

Group F
12 Arsenal
9 Dortmund
9 Napoli
0 Marseille

Marseille - Dortmund
Napoli - Arsenal

• Arsenal clinch qualification if they do not lose with 3 (or more) goals against Napoli
• Arsenal clinch qualification if Dortmund fail to win against Marseille
• Dortmund clinch qualification if Arsenal win against Napoli
• Dortmund clinch qualification if they win against Marseille
• Dortmund clinch qualification if they draw against Marseille and Napoli and Arsenal draw
• Napoli clinch qualification if they win against Arsenal with at least 3 goals
• Napoli clinch qualification if they win against Arsenal and Dortmund fail to win against Marseille
• Napoli clinch qualification if they draw against Arsenal and Marseille win against Dortmund
• Marseille cannot qualify

If Dortmund and Napoli win their matches they will end up on 12 points just like Arsenal. The table excluding the Marseille matches then looks like


1. Arsenal      6  4-2
2. Dortmund  6  6-5
3. Napoli        6  3-6
 
where we can see that Napoli need to win with three goals against Arsenal to get a goal difference better than Arsenal.

Group G
13 Atletico Madrid
6 Zenit
5 Porto
2 Austria

Atletico Madrid - Porto
Austria - Zenit

• Atletico Madrid has clinched qualification
• Zenit clinch qualification if Porto fail to win against Atletico Madrid
• Zenit clinch qualification if they win against Austria
• Porto clinch qualification if they win against Atletico Madrid and Zenit fail to win against Austria
• Austria cannot qualify

Group H
10 Barcelona
8 Milan
7 Ajax
3 Celtic

Milan - Ajax
Barcelona - Celtic

• Barcelona has clinched qualification
• Milan clinch qualification if they draw (or win) against Ajax
• Ajax clinch qualification if they win against Milan
• Celtic cannot qualify

Congratulations Algeria, Croatia, France, Ghana, Greece, Mexico, Portugal,  and Uruguay.

Going back to the predictions of the qualification back in July 2012, we can conclude that the greatest [positive] surprises were:

1. Algeria (15%)
2. Cameroon (23%)
3. Belgium (39%)
4. Costa Rica (39%)
5. Bosnia and Herzegovina (3242%)

where the percentage indicates the chance the team was estimated to have back in July 2012. Likewise the greatest disappointments were:

1. Egypt (63%)
2. Sweden (61%)
3. Panama (49%)
4. Tunisia (44%)
5. Uzbekistan (39%)

We have 32 countries, which will be drawn into eight groups on 6th of December. The countries will most likely be divided into five pots as:

• Pot A (seeded): Argentina, Belgium, Brazil, Colombia, Germany, Spain, Switzerland, and Uruguay
• Pot B (North America & Asia): Australia, Costa Rica, Honduras, Iran, Japan, Mexico, South Korea, and United States 
• Pot C (Europe): Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, England, Greece, Italy, Netherlands, Portugal, and Russia
• Pot D (South America & Africa): Algeria, Cameroon, Chile, Ecuador, Ghana, Ivory Coast, and Nigeria.
• Special Pot: France

France (special pot) will be drawn together with a non-European team from Pot 1, a team from Pot 2, and a team from Pot 3. This is to ensure that there is no group with three Europeans teams. Then each South American team in Pot D is drawn with a European team from Pot A, a team from Pot B, and a team from Pot C. Then the remaining five groups are drawn by picking one team from each of the four pots.

Country	Qual	2013-Oct	2012-Jul	Champ	2013-Oct	2012-Jul
Brazil	100	+0.0	+0.0	33.9	-0.4	+17.1
Spain	100	+0.0	+0.4	20.5	-0.1	-13.7
Argentina	100	+0.0	+0.5	7.5	-0.2	-1.4
Germany	100	+0.0	+2.9	13.7	+0.1	-0.6
England	100	+0.0	+3.8	3.43	+0.0	-1.9
South Korea	100	+0.0	+5.2	0.01	-0.0	-0.3
Netherlands	100	+0.0	+5.7	6.6	-0.1	+1.5
Japan	100	+0.0	+6.9	0.037	-0.0	-0.3
Colombia	100	+0.0	+11.3	2.17	-0.1	+0.7
Australia	100	+0.0	+15.2	0.024	-0.0	-0.1
Italy	100	+0.0	+16.0	1.82	-0.3	+0.1
Ecuador	100	+0.0	+18.4	0.33	+0.0	-0.3
United States	100	+0.0	+18.9	0.58	-0.1	+0.5
Russia	100	+0.0	+19.2	0.55	-0.0	-0.6
Switzerland	100	+0.0	+21.1	0.92	+0.4	+0.7
Iran	100	+0.0	+29.3	0.017	-0.0	+0.0
Chile	100	+0.0	+36.9	0.9	+0.0	+0.7
Honduras	100	+0.0	+53.3	0.008	-0.0	+0.0
Bosnia and Herzegov	100	+0.0	+57.8	0.23	+0.0	+0.2
Costa Rica	100	+0.0	+61.2	0.035	-0.0	+0.0
Belgium	100	+0.0	+61.5	1.02	-0.0	+0.9
Ghana	100	+0.1	+55.2	0.04	-0.0	+0.0
Nigeria	100	+2.5	+42.2	0.05	+0.0	+0.0
Ivory Coast	100	+3.3	+18.2	0.25	+0.0	-0.4
Uruguay	100	+9.3	+16.2	2.41	+0.2	+1.9
Croatia	100	+14.4	+18.3	0.31	+0.0	-0.6
Mexico	100	+27.3	+1.4	0.06	+0.0	-2.5
Cameroon	100	+28.0	+77.4	0.001	+0.0	+0.0
Greece	100	+32.9	+24.1	0.44	+0.2	+0.2
France	100	+39.5	+40.5	0.76	+0.1	+0.3
Portugal	100	+44.3	+11.6	1.35	+0.6	-1.3
Algeria	100	+70.6	+85.3	0.001	+0.0	+0.0

Congratulations Nigeria, Ivory Coast, and Cameroon, which qualified over the weekend.

We now have 23 qualified countries and 16 countries fight about the remaining 8 slots. In Africa, Algeria will meet Burkina Faso on Tuesday and need to turn around their 3-2 loss in Ouagadougou. Ghana will go to Cairo and try to defend their 6-1 lead against Egypt. In Europe, Portugal increased their chances with 14% by winning 1-0 against Sweden. Ukraine surprised the world winning 2-0 against France and are now the favourite to qualify (82%). Greece won 3-1 against Romania which was a remarkable result as Greece only scored on average 1.2 goals in previous qualification against in theory easier teams. Croatia did not manage to score against Iceland, a heroic Iceland playing with 10 men for almost entire second half. In the intercontinental playoff the teams from the western hemisphere showed their strength, when Mexico beat New Zealand with 5-1 home at Azteca and Uruguay beat Jordan away in Amman.

Country	Qual	Nov 01	Jun 01	Champ	Nov 01	Jun 01
Brazil	100	+0.0	+0.0	34.2	-0.1	+8.6
Japan	100	+0.0	+0.0	0.04	+0.0	-0.3
Argentina	100	+0.0	+0.0	7.6	-0.1	-0.4
Netherlands	100	+0.0	+0.0	6.6	-0.1	+1.8
Spain	100	+0.0	+0.4	20.6	+0.0	-9.5
Colombia	100	+0.0	+0.5	2.21	-0.0	+0.8
Germany	100	+0.0	+0.7	13.6	+0.0	+0.6
Russia	100	+0.0	+1.0	0.56	-0.0	-0.8
Ecuador	100	+0.0	+1.2	0.33	+0.0	-0.3
South Korea	100	+0.0	+1.8	0.01	-0.0	-0.2
Italy	100	+0.0	+4.6	2.19	+0.0	+0.3
Switzerland	100	+0.0	+5.2	0.51	+0.0	+0.3
England	100	+0.0	+6.8	3.42	-0.0	-1.1
United States	100	+0.0	+15.6	0.57	-0.1	+0.5
Australia	100	+0.0	+21.4	0.023	-0.0	-0.1
Chile	100	+0.0	+23.6	0.89	+0.0	+0.7
Bosnia and Herzegov	100	+0.0	+29.9	0.22	+0.0	+0.2
Honduras	100	+0.0	+43.2	0.009	-0.0	+0.0
Belgium	100	+0.0	+49.4	1.05	+0.0	+1.0
Costa Rica	100	+0.0	+52.4	0.04	+0.0	+0.0
Iran	100	+0.0	+58.5	0.016	-0.0	+0.0
Nigeria	100	+2.5	+48.2	0.05	+0.0	+0.0
Ivory Coast	100	+3.3	+11.7	0.26	+0.0	-0.4
Cameroon	100	+28.0	+77.1	0.001	+0.0	+0.0
Uruguay	99.96	+9.3	+70.3	2.47	+0.2	+2.3
Ghana	99.87	+0.0	+61.2	0.05	+0.0	+0.0
Mexico	98.75	+26.0	+1.8	0.06	+0.0	-2.2
Greece	89.9	+22.8	+22.2	0.4	+0.1	+0.2
Croatia	87.1	+1.5	-1.6	0.27	+0.0	-0.6
Ukraine	82.2	+42.7	+70.9	0.31	+0.2	+0.3
Burkina Faso	70.5	-0.1	+65.6	0.002	+0.0	+0.0
Portugal	69.3	+13.6	-4.3	0.94	+0.2	-1.0
Sweden	30.7	-13.6	-34.8	0.24	-0.1	-0.4
Algeria	29.5	+0.1	+12.9	0.001	+0.0	+0.0
France	17.8	-42.7	-50.7	0.19	-0.5	-0.3
Iceland	12.9	-1.5	+10.6	0	-0.0	+0.0
Romania	10.1	-22.8	-14.3	0.005	-0.0	-0.0
New Zealand	1.25	-26.1	-35.1	0	-0.0	-0.0
Egypt	0.13	+0.0	-74.4	0	-0.0	-0.0
Jordan	0.04	-9.3	-18.0	0	-0.0	-0.0

Champions League After Day 4

Group A
8 Man United
7 Leverkusen
5 Shakhtar
1 Sociedad

Shakhtar - Sociedad
Leverkusen - Man United

• Man United clinch qualification if they win against Leverkusen
• Leverkusen clinch qualification if they win against Man United
• Shakhtar miss qualification if they lose against Sociedad and Leverkusen and Man United draw
• Sociedad miss qualification if they fail to win against Shakhtar

Group B

10 Real Madrid
4 Galatasaray
4 Copenhagen
3 Juventus

Juventus - Copenhagen
Real Madrid - Galatasaray

• Real Madrid has clinched qualification
• Copenhagen miss qualification if they lose against Juventus
• Juventus miss qualification if they lose against Copenhagen

Group C

10 Paris
7 Olympiakos
4 Benfica
1 Anderlecht

Paris - Olympiakos
Anderlecht - Benfica

• Paris clinch qualification if Olympiakos fail to win against Paris
• Olympiakos clinch qualification if Benfica fail to win against Anderlecht and Paris fail to win against Olympiakos
• Benfica miss qualification if Benfica lose against Anderlecht
• Anderlecht miss qualification if they fail to win against Benfica

Group D

12 Munich
9 Man City
3 Moscow
0 Plzen

Moscow - Munich
Man City - Plzen

• Munich has clinched qualification
• Man City has clinched qualification
• Moscow cannot qualify
• Plzen cannot qualify

Group E

9 Chelsea
6 Schalke
5 Basel
2 Bucharest

Basel - Chelsea
Bucharest - Schalke

• Chelsea clinch qualification if Schalke fail to win against Bucharest
• Schalke clinch qualification if they win against Bucharest and Chelsea win against Basel
• Basel miss qualification if they lose against Chelsea and Schalke win against Bucharest
• Bucharest miss qualification if they fail to win against Schalke

Group F

9 Arsenal
9 Napoli
6 Dortmund
0 Marseille

Arsenal - Marseille
Dortmund - Napoli

• Arsenal clinch qualification if they win against Marseille and Dortmund fail to win against Napoli
• Napoli clinch qualification if they at least draw against Dortmund
• Dortmund miss qualification if they fail to win against Napoli and Arsenal win against Marseille
• Marseille cannot qualify

Group G

12 Atletico Madrid
5 Zenit
4 Porto
1 Austria

Zenit - Atletico Madrid
Porto - Austria

• Atletico Madrid has clinched qualification
• Zenit clinch qualification if they win against Atletico Madrid and Porto fail to win against Austria
• Porto miss qualification if they fail to win against Austria and Zenit win against Atletico Madrid
• Austria miss qualification if they fail to win against Porto and Atletico Madrid fail to win against Zenit

Group H

10 Barcelona
5 Milan
4 Ajax
3 Celtic

Ajax - Barcelona
Celtic - Milan

• Barcelona has clinched qualification
• Milan clinch qualification if they win against Celtic and Barcelona win against Ajax
• Ajax miss qualification if they lose against Barcelona and Milan win against Celtic
• Celtic miss qualification if they fail to win against Milan

Champions League Day 4

Group E
6 Chelsea
6 Schalke
4 Basel
1 Bucharest

Basel - Bucharest
Chelsea - Schalke

• Bucharest miss qualification if they lose against Basel

Group F
6 Arsenal
6 Dortmund
6 Napoli
0 Marseille

Dortmund - Arsenal
Napoli - Marseille

• Marseille miss qualification if they fail to win against Napoli

Group G
9 Atletico Madrid
4 Zenit
3 Porto
1 Austria

Zenit - Porto
Atletico Madrid - Austria

• Atletico Madrid clinch qualification if they win against Austria
• Atletico Madrid clinch qualification if they draw Austria and Zenit win against Porto

Group H
7 Barcelona
5 Milan
3 Celtic
1 Ajax

Ajax - Celtic
Barcelona - Milan

• Barcelona clinch qualification if they win against Milan
• Ajax miss qualification if they lose against Celtic

Champions League Day 4

Group A
7 Man United
6 Leverkusen
4 Shakhtar
0 Sociedad

Sociedad - Man United
Shakhtar - Leverkusen

Group B
9 Real Madrid
4 Galatasaray
2 Juventus
1 Copenhagen

Juventus - Real Madrid
Copenhagen - Galatasaray

• Real Madrid clinch qualification if Juventus fail to win against Real Madrid
• Real Madrid clinch qualification if Copenhagen and Galatasaray draw

Group C
9 Paris
4 Olympiakos
4 Benfica
0 Anderlecht

Paris - Anderlecht
Olympiakos - Benfica

• Paris clinch qualification if Paris win against Anderlecht

Group D
9 Munich
6 Man City
3 Moscow
0 Plzen

Man City - Moscow
Plzen - Munich

• Munich clinch qualification if Plzen fail to win against Munich and Man City win against Moscow
• Munich clinch qualification if Munich win against Plzen and Man City and Moscow draw
• Man City clinch qualification if Plzen fail to win against Munich and Man City win against Moscow