Round 1


The figure below shows the chances for the teams to win the tournament. Only the ten favourites are shown for clarity. For other teams see table below. Clearly Brazil is the big favourite with more than 40%. Spain started as 2nd favourite but has fell down to fourth and less than 7%. If they manage to climb up from this hole they are likely playing the hosts, which doesn't make their chances sky rocket. For the other Big Boys, Germany and Argentina, the chances haven't changed much since their results are in line with what we expect: that they win their groups and get nothing overly dramatic in round of "sweet sixteen".

Of the other team we notice Italy, the US, and  Ivory Coast, who have all boosted their chances quite significantly.

Country	Chance	Initial
Brazil	40.5	38.1
Germany	16.7	13.1
Argentina	10.1	10.9
Spain	6.7	16.5
Netherlands	6.5	3.3
Colombia	2.6	1.8
Italy	2.4	1.4
France	2.1	1.5
England	1.6	2.2
Portugal	1.5	2.3
Chile	1.5	1.1
United States	1.1	0.65
Switzerland	1.0	0.73
Belgium	0.91	0.77
Mexico	0.81	0.47
Russia	0.63	0.76
Uruguay	0.54	1.6
Ivory Coast	0.43	0.21
Ecuador	0.41	0.66
Croatia	0.31	0.26
Greece	0.29	0.33
Bosnia and Herzegovina	0.14	0.18
Costa Rica	0.13	0.064
Japan	0.078	0.11
Nigeria	0.075	0.11
Iran	0.058	0.053
South Korea	0.026	0.027
Ghana	0.011	0.034
Honduras	0.005	0.013
Algeria	0.003	0.005
Australia	0.003	0.016
Cameroon	0.001	0.002