CL: Match Day 6: Group A-D

Group A
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
100%	6	16	19-3	Real Madrid
100%	6	13	12-1	Paris SG
0%	6	3	7-14	Shakhtar
0%	6	3	1-21	Malmoe

Favorites Real Madrid and Paris SG qualified for the knockout stage.

Group B
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
100%	6	12	9-6	Wolfsburg
100%	6	10	8-7	PSV
0%	6	8	7-7	Man United
0%	6	4	5-9	CSKA Moskva

This group was the only one still alive in terms of which teams pass on to the knockout stage. And the evening did indeed turn out quite exciting. Wolfsburg, Man United, and PSV started the evening with 91%, 62%, and 48% chance, respectively. Man U took the lead in the group with an early goal bumping their chances to 76%, but Wolfsburg equalized within a couple of minutes the standing were back on square one. When Wolfsburg scored another goal ten minutes later they bumped up from 91% to a 97% chance, while Man U now were struggling at 47% as they needed either themselves or Moskva to score. Forty-five minutes later, with a quarter remaining, the score was still 2-1 in Wolfsburg and scoreless in Eindhoven, which meant, according to our estimations, Wolfsburg now had a 99.8% chance, Man U were struggling at 28% and PSV had 72%. In the 76th minute de Jong fouled inside the box and Moskva converted the kick from 12 yards to a goal. Suddenly PSV were down to 14% and Man U flew up to 86%. Two minutes later PSV equalized through de Jong gaining back PSV's chances to 76%. Man U, again needed to score or rely on Moskva, which were trailing a win and ticket to Europa League. Indeed, four minutes later Man U were helped by a Wolfsburg own goal, which meant a draw and Man U were up 80%. But they could not hold that for long, as two minutes later Wolfsburg scored the winner, which means Man U were again down to 15% and when PSV another two minutes later scored the group was settled and done. The upset was reality and Man U is the biggest disappointment in the first four groups.

Group C
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
100%	6	13	11-4	Atletico
100%	6	10	10-8	Benfica
0%	6	5	7-10	Galatasaray
0%	6	4	5-11	FK Astana

Favorites Atletico Madrid and Benfica qualified for knockout stage.

Group D
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
100%	6	12	12-8	Man City
100%	6	11	6-3	Juventus
0%	6	6	8-11	Sevilla
0%	6	5	8-12	Gladbach

This group was, by most, considered a three-horse race between Man City, Sevilla, and Juventus. Man City and Juventus came out of the dust alive.