It is time to kick off the oldest tournament for national teams: Copa America. As usual the estimates below are based on simulations in which teams' strength are based on the football ELO ranking. Based on these group A and B seem to open, whereas group C and D both contain two heavy favorites.
| Group A | m | p | +/- | chance |
| Colombia | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 79% |
| Costa Rica | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 39% |
| Paraguay | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 29% |
| United States | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 53% |
| Group B | m | p | +/- | chance |
| Brazil | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 88% |
| Ecuador | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 65% |
| Haiti | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 5.9% |
| Peru | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 41% |
| Group C | m | p | +/- | chance |
| Jamaica | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 15% |
| Mexico | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 83% |
| Uruguay | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 87% |
| Venezuela | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 15% |
| Group D | m | p | +/- | chance |
| Argentina | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 91% |
| Bolivia | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 11% |
| Chile | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 78% |
| Panama | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 20% |
Probability countries reach different round
|
| Country | QF | Semi | Final | Champion |
| Argentina | 91% | 61% | 40% | 25% |
| Brazil | 88% | 59% | 33% | 19% |
| Uruguay | 87% | 46% | 25% | 12% |
| Mexico | 83% | 41% | 21% | 9.8% |
| Colombia | 79% | 47% | 24% | 13% |
| Chile | 78% | 41% | 21% | 9.5% |
| Ecuador | 65% | 32% | 12% | 4.5% |
| United States | 53% | 23% | 8.6% | 3.1% |
| Peru | 41% | 16% | 4.5% | 1.3% |
| Costa Rica | 39% | 14% | 4.3% | 1.2% |
| Paraguay | 29% | 9% | 2.4% | 0.6% |
| Panama | 20% | 4.9% | 1.2% | 0.23% |
| Venezuela | 15% | 2.4% | 0.46% | 0.065% |
| Jamaica | 15% | 2.2% | 0.4% | 0.056% |
| Bolivia | 11% | 2% | 0.36% | 0.049% |
| Haiti | 5.9% | 0.78% | 0.073% | 0.0066% |
Posts
No comments:
Post a Comment