PL: Chelsea lost against Man U

Chelsea lost against Man United shrinking the gap down to Tottenham to only four points. Chelsea's schedule is, however, easier than Tottenham's with Tottenham having both Man United and Arsenal left to play at home. Both teams have six matches to play. In our simulations, Chelsea take on average 13 (of 18) points and Tottenham take 10 (of 18) points, giving Chelsea a 7 point margin.

Expected Outcome
Team	Points	Expected +/-	Champ%	Top4%
Chelsea	88	79-33	93.2	100
Tottenham	81	78-29	6.7	99.3
Man City	75.9	75-41	0.077	83.9
Liverpool	76	79-45	0.0389	88.6
Man United	71.1	60-33	0.0023	20.2
Arsenal	68.8	75-49	0	7.95
Everton	64.1	67-44	0	0.162

Table below shows the probability for Chelsea and Tottenham to end on a certain point. For instance, 7.18% that Chelsea win all remaining matches and get 93 points. More than 33% that Chelsea take at least 90 points and then they are Champions regardless of what Tottenham do. If they take 86 points (9%), which corresponds to 3 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss, they have more than 90% to win the league. If Tottenham take less than 84 points, in other words, lose two matches, they have less than 10% chance.

Points	Chelsea	Win(%)	Tottenham	Win (%)
93	7.18	100	-	-
91	12.9	100	-	-
90	13.2	100	-	-
89	9.01	98.8	1.21	65.8
88	17.8	98.8	-	-
87	11.6	95.2	3.65	39.8
86	8.96	90.5	4.48	28.4
85	8.76	86.4	4.39	18.9
84	4.56	75.3	10.9	10.8
83	2.89	66.1	9.49	6.21
82	1.85	53.4	10.4	3.16
81	0.761	36.8	13.9	1.31
80	0.343	25.8	10.2	0.504
79	0.169	13.8	9.4	0.175
78	0.046	4.57	8.72	0.0459
77	0.013	2.31	5.22	0.00383
76	0.0048	0	3.67	0