Wednesday, September 27, 2017

CL Match Day 2


 Group A

Chancemp+/-
Key
97%267-1Man United99.83% if they draw (or win) against Benfica; otherwise 92%
32%235-3Basel57% if they draw (or win) against CSKA Moskva; otherwise 15%
57%233-5CSKA Moskva76% if they win against Basel; otherwise 30%
14%201-7Benfica36% if they win against CSKA Moskva; otherwise 4%

Man U won in Moscow making them very likely to advance to next round. Basel upset Benfica with a 3-0 in at home, making the battle about the second spot very open.





Group B
Chancemp+/-
Key
97%268-0Paris SG99.1% if they draw (or win) against Anderlecht; otherwise 80%
94%233-3Bayern97% if they win against Celtic; otherwise 73%
7%233-5Celtic26% if they draw (or win) against Bayern; otherwise 3%
2%200-6Anderlecht19% if they win against Paris SG; otherwise 0.6%

Two of the favourites for the whole tournament in this group making it unlikely for Celtic to advance, but they took their chance and won against Anderlecht.

Group C
Chancemp+/-
Key
88%267-1Chelsea99.3% if they win against Atletico; otherwise 79%
53%242-1Roma98.5% if they win against Atletico; otherwise 42%
59%211-2Atletico81% if they win against Roma; otherwise 26%
0.3%201-7Qarabag3% if they win against Atletico; otherwise 0%

Important winning goal for Chelsea away in Madrid, while Roma  won as expected against Qarabag. Atletico in a bit of problem after only 1 point and need good results against Qarabag next..






Group D
Chancemp+/-
Key
98.9%264-0Barcelona99.8% if they draw (or win) against Sporting; otherwise 88%
16%233-3Sporting46% if they win against Juventus; otherwise 7%
84%232-3Juventus94% if they draw (or win) against Sporting; otherwise 53%
0.8%202-5Olympiakos9% if they win against Barcelona; otherwise 0.3%

Barcelona and Juventus won their matches as expected.




Group E
Chancemp+/-
Key
87%245-2Sevilla96% if they draw (or win) against Spartak Moskva; otherwise 69%
88%223-3Liverpool95% if they draw (or win) against Spartak Moskva; otherwise 46%
22%222-2Spartak Moskva45% if they win against Sevilla; otherwise 11%
2%211-4Maribor11% if they win against Spartak Moskva; otherwise 0.7%

Liverpool drew away against Spartak, while Sevilla won as expected against Maribor.




Group F
Chancemp+/-
Key
90%266-0Man City98% if they draw (or win) against Shakhtar; otherwise 76%
44%232-3Shakhtar72% if they draw (or win) against Napoli; otherwise 25%
63%234-3Napoli82% if they win against Shakhtar; otherwise 35%
3%201-7Feyenoord12% if they win against Shakhtar; otherwise 1%

Man City won at home against Shakhtar and Napoli won against Feyrnord as expected. Man City are favourites to win the group and a key game will be the one in the last round when Shakhtar travels to Naples.




Group G
Chancemp+/-
Key
77%265-1Besiktas95% if they win against Porto; otherwise 61%
51%234-3Porto76% if they win against Monaco; otherwise 37%
18%211-3RB Leipzig49% if they win against Porto; otherwise 8%
54%211-4Monaco79% if they win against Porto; otherwise 37%



This is the most open group and Besiktas have become the front-runner after two wins against  Porto and Leipzig. Porto took a surprising win away in Monaco, making them a strong contender.




Group H
Chancemp+/-
Key
92%266-0Tottenham99.6% if they draw (or win) against Dortmund; otherwise 83%
99.5%266-1Real Madridqualified if they draw (or win) against Dortmund; otherwise 96%
8%201-6Dortmund16% if they win against Tottenham; otherwise 0.9%
0.4%200-6APOEL5% if they win against Tottenham; otherwise 0%


Real Madrid are clearly the favourites in the group and after two wins virtually secured a spot in the second round. Tottenham has built up a 6 point gap down to Dortmund giving them a good chance to take the second spot. Dortmund need good results against APOEL in coming matches to still have a chance when they host Tottenham in the last round.





 Table below show the probability for different match-ups in last 16 stage

 Winner \ Runner-up

BarcMan RealPariMan ChelSeviBesiLiveBayeMonaNapoTottAtlePortRomaJuveShakCSKASparRB LBaseBenfSporMariAndeCeltDortFeyeOlymQaraAPOETotal
Barcelona
2%
3% 3% 3%
3% 9% 6% 3% 5% 14%
3% 5%
4% 5% 2% 1% 3% 1%
<1% <1% <1% 1% <1%
<1% <1% 87%
Man United2%
3% 4%

5% 3%
8% 3% 5%
7% 4% 6% 10% 5%
3% 1%

2% <1% <1% <1% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 82%
Real Madrid
2%
3% 3% 3%
3% 8% 6% 3% 4%

3% 4% 8% 4% 5% 2% 1% 3% 1% 1% <1% <1% <1%
<1% <1% <1%
79%
Paris SG1% 1% 2%
2% 2% 3% 2% 6%

3% 9% 4% 2% 3% 5% 2% 3% 1% 1% 2% <1% 1% <1%

<1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 66%
Man City1%
2% 3%

4% 2%
6% 3%

5% 3% 4% 8%
5% 2% 1% 3% 1% 1% <1% <1% <1% 1%
<1% <1% <1% 65%
Chelsea1%
2% 3%

4% 3%
6% 3% 4%

3%
8% 3% 5% 2% 1% 3% 1% 1% <1% <1% <1% 1% <1% <1%
<1% 64%
Sevilla
1%
2% 2% 2%
2%
4% 2% 3% 8%
2% 3% 5% 2% 3%
1% 2% <1% 1%
<1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 55%
Besiktas<1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 2%
4% 3%
2% 7% 3%
2% 4% 2% 2% 1%
1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 49%
Liverpool<1%
1% 1%


1%
3% 1% 2%
3% 2% 2% 4% 2% 3%
<1% 1% <1% 1%
<1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 38%
Bayern<1% <1% 1%
1% 1% 1% 1% 2%
1% 1% 4% 2% 1% 1% 2% 1% 1% 1%
1% <1% <1% <1%


<1% <1% <1% <1% 32%
Monaco<1% <1% <1%
1% 1% 1%
2% 1%
1% 3% 1%
1% 2% 1% 1% <1%
<1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 26%
Napoli<1% <1% <1% <1%
1% 1% <1% 2% 1% <1%
3% 1% 1%


1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
<1% <1% <1% 22%
Tottenham<1%

<1%

1% <1%
1% <1% 1%
1% 1% 1% 2% 1% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
<1% <1% <1%
20%
Atletico
<1%
<1% <1%

<1% 1% 1% <1% 1% 2%
<1%
1% <1% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
<1% 18%
Porto<1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
1% 1%
<1% 2% 1%
<1% 1% <1% 1% <1%
<1%

<1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 18%
Roma<1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
<1% <1% 1% 1% <1%
2%
<1%

<1% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
<1% 17%
Juventus
<1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% <1% <1%
1% <1% <1%

<1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
<1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
<1% <1% 12%
Shakhtar<1% <1% <1% <1%
<1% <1% <1% 1% <1% <1%
1% <1% <1% <1% 1%
<1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
<1% <1% <1% 11%
CSKA Moskva<1%
<1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%

<1%

<1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 9%
Spartak Mosk<1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
<1%
<1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%

<1% <1% <1% <1%
<1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 5%
RB Leipzig<1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
<1%

<1% <1% <1%
<1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
<1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
<1% <1% <1% <1% 4%
Basel<1%
<1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
<1% <1%

<1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 3%
Benfica<1%
<1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
<1% <1% <1%
<1% <1%


<1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 3%
Sporting
<1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
<1%
<1% <1% <1% <1% <1%

<1% <1% <1% <1% <1%

<1% <1%
Maribor<1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
<1%
<1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
<1% <1% <1% <1%
<1% <1% <1% <1%

<1% <1%
Anderlecht<1% <1% <1%
<1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
<1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%

<1% <1%
<1% <1% <1%
Celtic<1% <1% <1%
<1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
<1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%

<1% <1%


<1%
Dortmund<1% <1%
<1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
<1% <1%
<1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
<1% <1% <1% <1%
<1%
<1% <1%

<1%
Feyenoord<1% <1% <1% <1%
<1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
<1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
<1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%



<1%
Olympiakos
<1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
<1% <1% <1%
<1% <1%
<1%
<1% <1%



<1%
Total11%12%20%30%21%21%28%28%45%60%25%39%68%36%32%41%71%35%47%22%13%28%10%16%2%2%6%10%2%<1%<1%<1%
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Wednesday, September 13, 2017

CL: Match Day 1

Group A. Benfica lost the important match home against Moskva. Man U won as expected home against Basel.





Group B is almost decided beforehand and the two top teams won as expected making it even more into a two-horse-race.
Group C. Qarabag should not have a realistic chance in this group and lost against Chelsea. Roma and Atletico drew in Rome opening up a bit for Chelsea, but prediction almost unchanged.
 

 Group D. Before hand a tow-team-group and results did not change that prediction. Barcelona thrashed Juventus at gome (3-0), while Sporting did what they have to do to have a descent chance and won against Olympiakos.
 Group E. The question here is whether Spartak can upset Liverpool or Sevilla. Surprisingly they didn't manage to win against Maribor away, but let Maribor equalize with five minutes left (1-1). Sevilla and Liverpool drew in the early group final.
 Group F. As expected Man City won against Feyernord. Shaktar tok their chance and won at home against Napoli (2-1).
 Group G. This is one to the tightest group. Leipzig and Monaco drew (1-1) while besiktas won aganst Porto, making Besiktas a serious contender.
 Group H. Tottenham won the key match home against Dortmund, while Real won as expected against APOEL.






Below is a table with likely match-ups in round of 16.

Winner \ Runner-up


BarcRealBayeMan MonaSeviMan AtleLiveChelPariCSKABesiShakNapoTottRomaJuveBenfRB LSparPortDortSporBaseMariAndeFeyeOlymQaraCeltAPOETotal
Barcelona

3% 4% 3%
4%
6% 5% 7% 4% 4% 4% 4% 9% 4%
2% 2% 2% 1% 3%
1% <1% 1% <1%
<1% <1% <1% 83%
Real Madrid

3% 3% 3%
4%
6% 5% 6% 4% 4% 3% 3%
4% 7% 2% 2% 2% 1%
2% 1% <1% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
76%
Bayern1% 1%
2% 2% 4% 2% 3% 5% 4%
3% 2% 3% 2% 6% 3% 5% 2%
2% 1%
1% <1% <1%
<1% <1% <1%
<1% 65%
Man United1% 2% 3%
2% 4%
3%

5%
3% 3% 3%
3% 6%
2% 2% 1% 2% 2%
<1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 57%
Monaco1% 1% 2% 2%
3% 2% 2% 4% 3%
2%
2% 2% 5% 2% 4% 1%
1%
2% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 54%
Sevilla

2% 2% 2%
2%

3% 4% 2% 2% 2% 2% 5% 2% 4% 1% 1%
1% 2% 1% <1%
<1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 52%
Man City1% 1% 2%
2% 3%
3%

5% 3% 3%


3% 5% 2% 1% 1% 1% 2% 1% <1% <1% <1%
<1% <1% <1% <1% 49%
Atletico

2% 2% 1%
2%
4%
4% 2% 2% 2% 2% 5%
4% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
<1% <1% 49%
Liverpool1% 1% 2%
1%

2%

3% 2% 2% 2% 2%
2% 4% 1% 1%
<1% 1% 1% <1%
<1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 37%
Chelsea<1% 1% 1%
1% 2%



3% 2% 2% 2% 2%

3% 1% 1% 1% <1% 1% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
<1% <1% 35%
Paris SG<1% <1%
1%
1% 1% 1% 2% 2%
1% 1% 1% 1% 3% 1% 2% 1% <1% <1% <1% 1% <1% <1% <1%
<1% <1% <1%
<1% 33%
CSKA Moskva<1% <1% 1%
1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 1% 2%
1% 1% 1% 2% 1% 2%
<1%
<1% 1% <1%
<1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 29%
Besiktas<1% <1% 1% 1%
1% 1% 1% 2% 1% 2% 1%
1% 1% 2% 1% 2% <1%
<1%
1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 28%
Shakhtar<1% <1% 1% 1% <1% 1%
1% 2% 1% 2% 1% 1%

2% 1% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
<1% <1% <1% <1% 28%
Napoli<1% <1% <1% 1% <1% 1%
1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%

2%

<1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
<1% <1% <1% <1% 21%
Tottenham<1%
<1%
<1% 1%
1%

1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
1% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
<1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
18%
Roma<1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% <1%
1%
1% <1% <1% <1%
1%

<1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
<1% <1% 15%
Juventus
<1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% <1% <1% <1%
1%

<1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
<1% <1% <1% <1%
<1% <1% <1% 12%
Benfica<1% <1% <1%
<1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
<1% <1% <1% 1% <1% 1%
<1% <1%
<1%

<1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 11%
RB Leipzig<1% <1%
<1%
<1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
<1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
<1%

<1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 9%
Spartak Mosk<1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
<1% <1%
<1% <1%
<1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
<1% <1% <1% <1%
<1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 8%
Porto<1% <1% <1% <1%
<1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
<1% <1% <1% <1% <1%

<1%
<1%
<1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 7%
Dortmund<1%

<1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
<1% <1% <1%
<1% <1%
<1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
5%
Sporting
<1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%

<1% <1%
<1%
<1% <1% <1% <1%
<1% <1% <1% 3%
Basel<1% <1% <1%
<1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
<1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
<1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
<1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1%
Maribor<1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
<1% <1%
<1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
<1% <1% <1% <1%
<1% <1%
<1%
<1% 1%
Anderlecht<1% <1%
<1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
<1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
<1% <1% <1%
<1% 1%
Feyenoord<1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
<1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%

<1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
<1%
<1% <1% <1%
Olympiakos
<1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
<1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
<1%
<1% <1%

<1% <1% <1%
Qarabag<1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
<1%
<1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
<1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%



<1% <1%
Celtic<1% <1%
<1% <1% <1%
<1% <1% <1%
<1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%






<1%
Total12%16%31%26%26%32%27%28%42%35%57%38%36%34%33%53%35%64%24%21%21%14%26%21%11%3%9%4%1%<1%2%4%
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