CL Match Day 2

 Group A

Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
97%	2	6	7-1	Man United	99.83% if they draw (or win) against Benfica; otherwise 92%
32%	2	3	5-3	Basel	57% if they draw (or win) against CSKA Moskva; otherwise 15%
57%	2	3	3-5	CSKA Moskva	76% if they win against Basel; otherwise 30%
14%	2	0	1-7	Benfica	36% if they win against CSKA Moskva; otherwise 4%

Man U won in Moscow making them very likely to advance to next round. Basel upset Benfica with a 3-0 in at home, making the battle about the second spot very open.

Group B
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
97%	2	6	8-0	Paris SG	99.1% if they draw (or win) against Anderlecht; otherwise 80%
94%	2	3	3-3	Bayern	97% if they win against Celtic; otherwise 73%
7%	2	3	3-5	Celtic	26% if they draw (or win) against Bayern; otherwise 3%
2%	2	0	0-6	Anderlecht	19% if they win against Paris SG; otherwise 0.6%

Two of the favourites for the whole tournament in this group making it unlikely for Celtic to advance, but they took their chance and won against Anderlecht.

Group C
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
88%	2	6	7-1	Chelsea	99.3% if they win against Atletico; otherwise 79%
53%	2	4	2-1	Roma	98.5% if they win against Atletico; otherwise 42%
59%	2	1	1-2	Atletico	81% if they win against Roma; otherwise 26%
0.3%	2	0	1-7	Qarabag	3% if they win against Atletico; otherwise 0%

Important winning goal for Chelsea away in Madrid, while Roma  won as expected against Qarabag. Atletico in a bit of problem after only 1 point and need good results against Qarabag next..

Group D
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
98.9%	2	6	4-0	Barcelona	99.8% if they draw (or win) against Sporting; otherwise 88%
16%	2	3	3-3	Sporting	46% if they win against Juventus; otherwise 7%
84%	2	3	2-3	Juventus	94% if they draw (or win) against Sporting; otherwise 53%
0.8%	2	0	2-5	Olympiakos	9% if they win against Barcelona; otherwise 0.3%

Barcelona and Juventus won their matches as expected.

Group E
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
87%	2	4	5-2	Sevilla	96% if they draw (or win) against Spartak Moskva; otherwise 69%
88%	2	2	3-3	Liverpool	95% if they draw (or win) against Spartak Moskva; otherwise 46%
22%	2	2	2-2	Spartak Moskva	45% if they win against Sevilla; otherwise 11%
2%	2	1	1-4	Maribor	11% if they win against Spartak Moskva; otherwise 0.7%

Liverpool drew away against Spartak, while Sevilla won as expected against Maribor.

Group F
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
90%	2	6	6-0	Man City	98% if they draw (or win) against Shakhtar; otherwise 76%
44%	2	3	2-3	Shakhtar	72% if they draw (or win) against Napoli; otherwise 25%
63%	2	3	4-3	Napoli	82% if they win against Shakhtar; otherwise 35%
3%	2	0	1-7	Feyenoord	12% if they win against Shakhtar; otherwise 1%

Man City won at home against Shakhtar and Napoli won against Feyrnord as expected. Man City are favourites to win the group and a key game will be the one in the last round when Shakhtar travels to Naples.

Group G
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
77%	2	6	5-1	Besiktas	95% if they win against Porto; otherwise 61%
51%	2	3	4-3	Porto	76% if they win against Monaco; otherwise 37%
18%	2	1	1-3	RB Leipzig	49% if they win against Porto; otherwise 8%
54%	2	1	1-4	Monaco	79% if they win against Porto; otherwise 37%

This is the most open group and Besiktas have become the front-runner after two wins against  Porto and Leipzig. Porto took a surprising win away in Monaco, making them a strong contender.

Group H

Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
92%	2	6	6-0	Tottenham	99.6% if they draw (or win) against Dortmund; otherwise 83%
99.5%	2	6	6-1	Real Madrid	qualified if they draw (or win) against Dortmund; otherwise 96%
8%	2	0	1-6	Dortmund	16% if they win against Tottenham; otherwise 0.9%
0.4%	2	0	0-6	APOEL	5% if they win against Tottenham; otherwise 0%

Real Madrid are clearly the favourites in the group and after two wins virtually secured a spot in the second round. Tottenham has built up a 6 point gap down to Dortmund giving them a good chance to take the second spot. Dortmund need good results against APOEL in coming matches to still have a chance when they host Tottenham in the last round.

 Table below show the probability for different match-ups in last 16 stage

 Winner \ Runner-up

Barc

Man

Real

Pari

Man

Chel

Sevi

Besi

Live

Baye

Mona

Napo

Tott

Atle

Port

Roma

Juve

Shak

CSKA

Spar

RB L

Base

Benf

Spor

Mari

Ande

Celt

Dort

Feye

Olym

Qara

APOE

Total

Barcelona

2%

3%

3%

3%

3%

9%

6%

3%

5%

14%

3%

5%

4%

5%

2%

1%

3%

1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

87%

Man United

2%

3%

4%

5%

3%

8%

3%

5%

7%

4%

6%

10%

5%

3%

1%

2%

<1%

<1%

<1%

1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

82%

Real Madrid

2%

3%

3%

3%

3%

8%

6%

3%

4%

3%

4%

8%

4%

5%

2%

1%

3%

1%

1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

79%

Paris SG

1%

1%

2%

2%

2%

3%

2%

6%

3%

9%

4%

2%

3%

5%

2%

3%

1%

1%

2%

<1%

1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

66%

Man City

1%

2%

3%

4%

2%

6%

3%

5%

3%

4%

8%

5%

2%

1%

3%

1%

1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

65%

Chelsea

1%

2%

3%

4%

3%

6%

3%

4%

3%

8%

3%

5%

2%

1%

3%

1%

1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

64%

Sevilla

1%

2%

2%

2%

2%

4%

2%

3%

8%

2%

3%

5%

2%

3%

1%

2%

<1%

1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

55%

Besiktas

<1%

1%

1%

1%

1%

2%

2%

4%

3%

2%

7%

3%

2%

4%

2%

2%

1%

1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

49%

Liverpool

<1%

1%

1%

1%

3%

1%

2%

3%

2%

2%

4%

2%

3%

<1%

1%

<1%

1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

38%

Bayern

<1%

<1%

1%

1%

1%

1%

1%

2%

1%

1%

4%

2%

1%

1%

2%

1%

1%

1%

1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

32%

Monaco

<1%

<1%

<1%

1%

1%

1%

2%

1%

1%

3%

1%

1%

2%

1%

1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

26%

Napoli

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

1%

1%

<1%

2%

1%

<1%

3%

1%

1%

1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

22%

Tottenham

<1%

<1%

1%

<1%

1%

<1%

1%

1%

1%

1%

2%

1%

1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

20%

Atletico

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

1%

1%

<1%

1%

2%

<1%

1%

<1%

1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

18%

Porto

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

1%

1%

<1%

2%

1%

<1%

1%

<1%

1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

18%

Roma

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

1%

1%

<1%

2%

<1%

<1%

1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

17%

Juventus

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

1%

<1%

<1%

1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

12%

Shakhtar

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

1%

<1%

<1%

1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

11%

CSKA Moskva

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

9%

Spartak Mosk

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

5%

RB Leipzig

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

4%

Basel

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

3%

Benfica

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

3%

Sporting

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

Maribor

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

Anderlecht

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

Celtic

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

Dortmund

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

Feyenoord

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

Olympiakos

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

Total

11%

12%

20%

30%

21%

21%

28%

28%

45%

60%

25%

39%

68%

36%

32%

41%

71%

35%

47%

22%

13%

28%

10%

16%

2%

2%

6%

10%

2%

<1%

<1%

<1%