CL: Match Day 1

Group A
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
97%	1	3	2-1	Atletico	98.8% if they draw (or win) against Monaco; otherwise 83%
63%	1	3	1-0	Dortmund	87% if they win against Monaco; otherwise 43%
34%	1	0	1-2	Monaco	53% if they draw (or win) against Dortmund; otherwise 13%
6%	1	0	0-1	Brugge	23% if they win against Dortmund; otherwise 2%

Atletico and Dortmund won as expected and are favourites.

Group B
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
93%	1	3	4-0	Barcelona	99% if they win against Inter; otherwise 85%
37%	1	3	2-1	Inter	69% if they draw (or win) against Tottenham; otherwise 24%
59%	1	0	1-2	Tottenham	72% if they win against Inter; otherwise 27%
11%	1	0	0-4	PSV	31% if they win against Tottenham; otherwise 4%

Barcelona won as expected and Inter took a much needed win against Tottenham.

Group C
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
88%	1	3	3-2	Liverpool	97% if they win against Napoli; otherwise 78%
48%	1	1	0-0	Napoli	69% if they win against Paris SG; otherwise 28%
0.4%	1	1	0-0	Red Star	2% if they draw (or win) against Liverpool; otherwise 0%
63%	1	0	2-3	Paris SG	85% if they win against Napoli; otherwise 41%

Liverpool won early group final against PSG, while Napoli surprisingly drew against Red Star.

Group D
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
56%	1	3	3-0	Galatasaray	86% if they win against Schalke; otherwise 46%
68%	1	1	1-1	Porto	84% if they win against Schalke; otherwise 49%
54%	1	1	1-1	Schalke	73% if they win against Galatasaray; otherwise 33%
22%	1	0	0-3	Lok Moskva	39% if they win against Schalke; otherwise 11%

Galatasaray won against Moskva while favourites Porto an Schalke drew.

Group E
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
55%	1	3	3-0	Ajax	81% if they win against Benfica; otherwise 33%
98%	1	3	2-0	Bayern	99.85% if they win against Benfica; otherwise 93%
39%	1	0	0-2	Benfica	59% if they draw (or win) against Ajax; otherwise 13%
9%	1	0	0-3	AEK	19% if they win against Ajax; otherwise 2%

Favourites Bayern won against Benfica while Ajax took a needed win against AEK.

Group F
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
69%	1	3	2-1	Lyon	84% if they win against Hoffenheim; otherwise 51%
29%	1	1	2-2	Shakhtar	44% if they win against Lyon; otherwise 14%
24%	1	1	2-2	Hoffenheim	42% if they draw (or win) against Lyon; otherwise 9.8%
78%	1	0	1-2	Man City	91% if they win against Lyon; otherwise 63%

Favourites Man City lost surprisingly against Lyon. Dark horses Shakhtar and Hoffenheim drew.

Group G
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
98.8%	1	3	3-0	Real Madrid	qualified if they draw (or win) against Roma; otherwise 96%
26%	1	1	2-2	CSKA Moskva	51% if they win against Roma; otherwise 12%
6%	1	1	2-2	Viktoria Plzen	21% if they win against Roma; otherwise 2%
69%	1	0	0-3	Roma	83% if they draw (or win) against CSKA Moskva; otherwise 45%

Real Madrid won against Roma in the early group final, while Plzen and Roma drew.

Group H
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
76%	1	3	3-0	Man United	94% if they win against Valencia; otherwise 56%
95%	1	3	2-0	Juventus	98% if they draw (or win) against Valencia; otherwise 80%
25%	1	0	0-2	Valencia	46% if they draw (or win) against Man United; otherwise 7%
3%	1	0	0-3	Young Boys	13% if they win against Man United; otherwise 2%

Favourites Juventus won against Valencia, while 2nd favourites Man United won against Young Boys.

Probability for different matchups in knockout stage.

Winner \ Runner-up

Real

Baye

Atle

Barc

Juve

Live

Man

Port

Lyon

Man

Gala

Scha

Pari

Dort

Tott

Napo

Shak

Hoff

Inte

Lok

Ajax

Roma

Benf

Vale

Mona

CSKA

Brug

PSV

AEK

Vikt

Youn

Red

Total

Real Madrid

1%

4%

3%

4%

3%

4%

7%

3%

3%

5%

6%

6%

4%

2%

2%

4%

1%

6%

4%

4%

<1%

1%

1%

<1%

<1%

91%

Bayern

1%

2%

2%

4%

3%

4%

3%

4%

7%

3%

5%

6%

4%

2%

4%

1%

8%

3%

4%

3%

<1%

1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

87%

Atletico

1%

3%

3%

4%

2%

4%

6%

3%

3%

5%

5%

4%

2%

1%

4%

1%

5%

7%

3%

2%

1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

80%

Barcelona

1%

3%

2%

4%

2%

3%

6%

3%

3%

4%

5%

3%

2%

1%

1%

5%

7%

3%

3%

2%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

76%

Juventus

<1%

1%

2%

2%

2%

3%

2%

3%

3%

3%

4%

5%

5%

2%

1%

1%

5%

3%

3%

2%

<1%

1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

64%

Liverpool

<1%

<1%

2%

2%

3%

2%

3%

3%

3%

5%

2%

1%

3%

1%

4%

7%

3%

2%

3%

2%

<1%

1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

64%

Man City

<1%

<1%

1%

1%

2%

1%

2%

2%

3%

3%

2%

2%

1%

3%

4%

2%

1%

2%

1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

45%

Porto

<1%

<1%

<1%

1%

1%

1%

1%

1%

3%

2%

2%

2%

1%

1%

<1%

1%

2%

3%

1%

1%

1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

40%

Lyon

<1%

<1%

<1%

1%

1%

1%

1%

2%

1%

1%

2%

2%

1%

1%

<1%

2%

3%

1%

1%

1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

35%

Man United

<1%

<1%

1%

1%

1%

1%

1%

1%

2%

2%

1%

1%

<1%

1%

<1%

2%

3%

1%

1%

1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

31%

Galatasaray

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

1%

<1%

1%

1%

2%

1%

1%

1%

1%

<1%

<1%

1%

1%

2%

1%

<1%

1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

27%

Schalke

<1%

<1%

<1%

1%

<1%

1%

1%

2%

1%

1%

1%

<1%

1%

1%

2%

1%

1%

1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

25%

Paris SG

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

1%

<1%

1%

<1%

<1%

1%

1%

<1%

<1%

1%

<1%

1%

2%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

21%

Dortmund

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

1%

<1%

<1%

1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

1%

1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

15%

Tottenham

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

1%

1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

1%

1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

15%

Napoli

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

1%

<1%

<1%

1%

1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

14%

Shakhtar

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

10%

Hoffenheim

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

8%

Inter

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

7%

Lok Moskva

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

7%

Ajax

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

7%

Roma

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

5%

Benfica

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

4%

Valencia

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

3%

Monaco

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

3%

CSKA Moskva

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

2%

Brugge

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

1%

PSV

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

AEK

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

Viktoria Plz

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

Young Boys

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

Red Star

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

Total

6%

9%

15%

16%

30%

23%

30%

27%

34%

47%

30%

25%

43%

45%

40%

32%

20%

13%

30%

16%

48%

60%

33%

17%

32%

26%

5%

11%

7%

6%

3%

<1%