| Chance Finishing Group | Round Probabilities |
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| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | Last 16 | Quarter | Semifinal | Final | Winner |
| Man City | 94% | 5% | < 1% | 99% | 82% | 62% | 44% | 27% |
| Liverpool | 60% | 29% | 10% | 89% | 74% | 56% | 41% | 26% |
| Barcelona | 75% | 19% | 5% | 94% | 68% | 44% | 26% | 14% |
| Bayern | 65% | 27% | 8% | 92% | 62% | 36% | 19% | 9% |
| Tottenham | 30% | 52% | 16% | 82% | 49% | 25% | 11% | 4% |
| Atletico | 38% | 37% | 17% | 75% | 42% | 21% | 9% | 4% |
| Juventus | 47% | 32% | 15% | 78% | 42% | 20% | 8% | 3% |
| Ajax | 40% | 31% | 23% | 72% | 36% | 15% | 6% | 2% |
| Paris SG | 64% | 25% | 8% | 90% | 42% | 16% | 5% | 2% |
| Real Madrid | 26% | 48% | 18% | 74% | 34% | 14% | 5% | 2% |
| Chelsea | 16% | 28% | 39% | 44% | 24% | 11% | 4% | 2% |
| RB Leipzig | 65% | 22% | 9% | 87% | 40% | 14% | 4% | 1% |
| Valencia | 42% | 33% | 19% | 75% | 33% | 12% | 4% | 1% |
| Dortmund | 17% | 48% | 24% | 65% | 27% | 10% | 3% | 1% |
| Napoli | 26% | 40% | 27% | 67% | 28% | 10% | 3% | < 1% |
| Benfica | 16% | 36% | 27% | 51% | 20% | 8% | 2% | < 1% |
| Salzburg | 13% | 27% | 51% | 40% | 15% | 5% | 1% | < 1% |
| Shakhtar | 1% | 36% | 31% | 37% | 12% | 4% | < 1% | < 1% |
| Leverkusen | 7% | 14% | 28% | 20% | 7% | 2% | < 1% | < 1% |
| Lyon | 11% | 22% | 32% | 33% | 9% | 2% | < 1% | < 1% |
| Inter | 6% | 20% | 38% | 25% | 8% | 2% | < 1% | < 1% |
| Atalanta | 2% | 20% | 32% | 21% | 6% | 2% | < 1% | < 1% |
| Olympiakos | 5% | 18% | 60% | 23% | 6% | 2% | < 1% | < 1% |
| Dinamo Zagreb | 3% | 39% | 36% | 42% | 10% | 2% | < 1% | < 1% |
| Zenit | 9% | 21% | 32% | 30% | 6% | 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| Brugge | 6% | 16% | 40% | 22% | 5% | 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| Slavia Praha | 3% | 14% | 34% | 17% | 3% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| Lok Moskva | 8% | 18% | 40% | 26% | 4% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| Lille | 2% | 7% | 19% | 9% | 2% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| Genk | < 1% | 4% | 13% | 4% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| Galatasaray | 3% | 11% | 34% | 14% | 2% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| Crvena Zvezda | < 1% | 3% | 17% | 3% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
Paris won 3-0 against Real Madrid taking the lead in group A. Real Madrid still favorites to join Paris advancing to the knockout stage, especially as Brugge and Galatasaray drew in Belgium.
| Group A |
| Chance | m | p | +/- |
| Key |
| 90% | 1 | 3 | 3-0 | Paris SG | 96% if they win against Brugge; otherwise 78% |
| 22% | 1 | 1 | 0-0 | Brugge | 43% if they win against Real Madrid; otherwise 13% |
| 14% | 1 | 1 | 0-0 | Galatasaray | 34% if they win against Real Madrid; otherwise 8% |
| 74% | 1 | 0 | 0-3 | Real Madrid | 85% if they win against Brugge; otherwise 54% |
Bayern taking the lead with a victory against Belgrade, while Olympiacos and Tottenham drew in Athens. Bayern favorites to win the group (65%) and Tottenham will likely join them as runner-up. The return in London in November will be a key match.
| Group B |
| Chance | m | p | +/- |
| Key |
| 92% | 1 | 3 | 3-0 | Bayern | 97% if they win against Olympiakos; otherwise 79% |
| 82% | 1 | 1 | 2-2 | Tottenham | 93% if they win against Olympiakos; otherwise 57% |
| 23% | 1 | 1 | 2-2 | Olympiakos | 69% if they win against Tottenham; otherwise 15% |
| 3% | 1 | 0 | 0-3 | Crvena Zvezda | 14% if they win against Tottenham; otherwise 2% |
Man City won the difficult match in Ukraine, which means they are 99% qualified. The other three teams fight about the second spot and Zagreb took their chances with a very important win against Atalanta.
| Group C |
| Chance | m | p | +/- |
| Key |
| 42% | 1 | 3 | 4-0 | Dinamo Zagreb | 68% if they win against Shakhtar; otherwise 25% |
| 98.9% | 1 | 3 | 3-0 | Man City | 99.6% if they win against Atalanta; otherwise 96% |
| 37% | 1 | 0 | 0-3 | Shakhtar | 52% if they draw (or win) against Dinamo Zagreb; otherwise 15% |
| 21% | 1 | 0 | 0-4 | Atalanta | 35% if they draw (or win) against Shakhtar; otherwise 8% |
Leverkusen lost in tgeir must-win match, home against Moskva, wich means their chances dropped significantly. The favourites in the group, Atletico and Juventus, shared the points in Madrid.
| Group D |
| Chance | m | p | +/- |
| Key |
| 26% | 1 | 3 | 2-1 | Lok Moskva | 56% if they win against Atletico; otherwise 18% |
| 78% | 1 | 1 | 2-2 | Juventus | 90% if they win against Lok Moskva; otherwise 65% |
| 75% | 1 | 1 | 2-2 | Atletico | 87% if they win against Lok Moskva; otherwise 59% |
| 20% | 1 | 0 | 1-2 | Leverkusen | 36% if they win against Atletico; otherwise 11% |
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