CL: Last 16 - Leg 2 - Week 1

Our simulations show that Man City now are favourites with a 24% chance of winning the Champions League. The table below show the chances for the twelve teams remaining.

Team	QF	Semi	Final	Champions
Man City	87%	60%	39%	24%
Bayern	99%	61%	36%	19%
Barcelona	81%	53%	33%	19%
Paris SG	100%	53%	26%	12%
Atletico	100%	45%	18%	7%
Juventus	55%	29%	14%	7%
RB Leipzig	100%	40%	15%	5%
Atalanta	100%	34%	10%	3%
Real Madrid	13%	8%	4%	2%
Napoli	19%	6%	2%	< 1%
Lyon	45%	10%	2%	< 1%
Chelsea	1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

CL: Last 16 Leg 2 - PSG vs Dortmund and Liverpool vs Atletico

Dortmund 52% are favourites against PSG after a 2-1 in the first leg. Below are the chances given different results after 45 minutes.

Chance	Team	Result			Team	Chance	Probability
99%	Paris SG	4	-	0	Dortmund	< 1%	< 1%
95%	Paris SG	3	-	0	Dortmund	5%	3%
85%	Paris SG	2	-	0	Dortmund	15%	10%
79%	Paris SG	3	-	1	Dortmund	21%	2%
71%	Paris SG	1	-	0	Dortmund	29%	21%
54%	Paris SG	2	-	1	Dortmund	46%	6%
44%	Paris SG	3	-	2	Dortmund	56%	< 1%
41%	Paris SG	0	-	0	Dortmund	59%	21%
27%	Paris SG	1	-	1	Dortmund	73%	12%
17%	Paris SG	2	-	2	Dortmund	83%	2%
10%	Paris SG	0	-	1	Dortmund	90%	12%
5%	Paris SG	1	-	2	Dortmund	95%	3%
1%	Paris SG	1	-	3	Dortmund	99%	< 1%
1%	Paris SG	0	-	2	Dortmund	99%	3%
< 1%	Paris SG	0	-	3	Dortmund	100%	< 1%

Liverpool are 58% favourites against Atletico. Below are the chances given different results after 45 minutes.

Chance	Team	Result			Team	Chance	Probability
100%	Liverpool	5	-	0	Atletico	< 1%	< 1%
100%	Liverpool	4	-	0	Atletico	< 1%	2%
98%	Liverpool	3	-	0	Atletico	2%	6%
98%	Liverpool	4	-	1	Atletico	2%	< 1%
88%	Liverpool	2	-	0	Atletico	12%	15%
88%	Liverpool	3	-	1	Atletico	12%	3%
65%	Liverpool	1	-	0	Atletico	35%	23%
59%	Liverpool	2	-	1	Atletico	41%	6%
59%	Liverpool	3	-	2	Atletico	41%	< 1%
37%	Liverpool	0	-	0	Atletico	63%	18%
28%	Liverpool	2	-	2	Atletico	72%	1%
28%	Liverpool	1	-	1	Atletico	72%	10%
11%	Liverpool	1	-	2	Atletico	89%	2%
11%	Liverpool	0	-	1	Atletico	89%	8%
3%	Liverpool	0	-	2	Atletico	97%	2%

CL: Last 16 Leg 2 - Valencia - Atalanta & Leipzig - Spurs

Below are the estimated chances given the score after first half in the second leg. With 4-1 in the first leg Napoli are the 88% favorites against Valencia.

Chance	Team	Result			Team	Chance	Probability
83%	Valencia	4	-	0	Atalanta	17%	< 1%
69%	Valencia	3	-	0	Atalanta	31%	3%
38%	Valencia	2	-	0	Atalanta	62%	9%
25%	Valencia	3	-	1	Atalanta	75%	2%
14%	Valencia	1	-	0	Atalanta	86%	20%
9%	Valencia	2	-	1	Atalanta	91%	6%
4%	Valencia	3	-	2	Atalanta	96%	< 1%
4%	Valencia	0	-	0	Atalanta	96%	22%
2%	Valencia	1	-	1	Atalanta	98%	12%
< 1%	Valencia	2	-	2	Atalanta	99%	2%
< 1%	Valencia	0	-	1	Atalanta	100%	13%
< 1%	Valencia	1	-	2	Atalanta	100%	4%
< 1%	Valencia	1	-	3	Atalanta	100%	< 1%
< 1%	Valencia	0	-	2	Atalanta	100%	4%
< 1%	Valencia	0	-	3	Atalanta	100%	< 1%

After 1-0 win in the first leg Leipzig are the 74% favourites against Tottenham.  If Tottenham lead with 1-0 after 45 minutes (14%) our simulations suggest it is fifty-fifty chance.

Chance	Team	Result			Team	Chance	Probability
100%	RB Leipzig	3	-	0	Tottenham	< 1%	2%
99%	RB Leipzig	2	-	0	Tottenham	1%	8%
99%	RB Leipzig	3	-	1	Tottenham	1%	2%
93%	RB Leipzig	1	-	0	Tottenham	7%	19%
93%	RB Leipzig	2	-	1	Tottenham	7%	5%
81%	RB Leipzig	0	-	0	Tottenham	19%	22%
74%	RB Leipzig	2	-	2	Tottenham	26%	2%
74%	RB Leipzig	1	-	1	Tottenham	26%	12%
49%	RB Leipzig	0	-	1	Tottenham	51%	14%
38%	RB Leipzig	1	-	2	Tottenham	62%	4%
13%	RB Leipzig	0	-	2	Tottenham	87%	5%
13%	RB Leipzig	1	-	3	Tottenham	87%	< 1%
3%	RB Leipzig	0	-	3	Tottenham	97%	1%