Tuesday, March 10, 2020

CL: Last 16 Leg 2 - Valencia - Atalanta & Leipzig - Spurs

Below are the estimated chances given the score after first half in the second leg. With 4-1 in the first leg Napoli are the 88% favorites against Valencia.

ChanceTeamResultTeamChanceProbability
83%Valencia4-0Atalanta17%< 1%
69%Valencia3-0Atalanta31%3%
38%Valencia2-0Atalanta62%9%
25%Valencia3-1Atalanta75%2%
14%Valencia1-0Atalanta86%20%
9%Valencia2-1Atalanta91%6%
4%Valencia3-2Atalanta96%< 1%
4%Valencia0-0Atalanta96%22%
2%Valencia1-1Atalanta98%12%
< 1%Valencia2-2Atalanta99%2%
< 1%Valencia0-1Atalanta100%13%
< 1%Valencia1-2Atalanta100%4%
< 1%Valencia1-3Atalanta100%< 1%
< 1%Valencia0-2Atalanta100%4%
< 1%Valencia0-3Atalanta100%< 1%

After 1-0 win in the first leg Leipzig are the 74% favourites against Tottenham.  If Tottenham lead with 1-0 after 45 minutes (14%) our simulations suggest it is fifty-fifty chance.

ChanceTeamResultTeamChanceProbability
100%RB Leipzig3-0Tottenham< 1%2%
99%RB Leipzig2-0Tottenham1%8%
99%RB Leipzig3-1Tottenham1%2%
93%RB Leipzig1-0Tottenham7%19%
93%RB Leipzig2-1Tottenham7%5%
81%RB Leipzig0-0Tottenham19%22%
74%RB Leipzig2-2Tottenham26%2%
74%RB Leipzig1-1Tottenham26%12%
49%RB Leipzig0-1Tottenham51%14%
38%RB Leipzig1-2Tottenham62%4%
13%RB Leipzig0-2Tottenham87%5%
13%RB Leipzig1-3Tottenham87%< 1%
3%RB Leipzig0-3Tottenham97%1%

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