Wednesday, July 22, 2020

PL: Prediction for match day 38

United clinch CL if they take a point against Leicester or Chelsea lose against Wolves.

Chelsea clinch CL if they take a point against Wolves or United win against Leicester.

Leicester clinch CL if they win against United or if they draw and Chelsea lose.

Wolves clinch EL if they take as many points (or more) against Chelsea as Tottenham take against Crystal Palace

Spurs clinch EL if they take more points against Crystal Palace than Wolves take against Chelsea.

Wolves and Spurs can also qualify for EL if Chelsea win the FA cup final against Arsenal.

Aston Villa clinch new contract if
  - they win and Watford don't win with two more goals
  - they draw and Watford don't win
  - they lose with less than three goals and Watford lose and Bournemouth fail to win

Watford clinch new contract if one of the following
  - they win and Villa fail to win
  - they draw and Villa lose
  - they win with three goals and Villa win with one goal
  - they lose with one goal, Villa lose with three or more and Bournemouth fail to win

Bournemouth clinch a new contract if they win against Everton, Watford lose against Arsenal and Aston Villa lose against West Ham.


TeamPldGDPtsaverage GDaverage PtsCLELContract
1. Liverpool37+5096+51.498.2100%100%100%
2. Man City37+6278+64.480.6100%100%100%
3. Man United37+2863+27.46459%100%100%
4. Chelsea37+1363+13.964.984%100%100%
5. Leicester37+2862+28.663.857%100%100%
6. Wolves37+1359+12.159.8< 1%79%100%
7. Tottenham37+1458+14.159.5< 1%76%100%
8. Sheffield United37+254+1.5555.1< 1%< 1%100%
9. Burnley37-654-5.2655.9< 1%< 1%100%
10. Arsenal37+753+8.1455.1< 1%45%100%
11. Everton37-1049-8.9751< 1%< 1%100%
12. Southampton37-1149-10.550.7< 1%< 1%100%
13. Newcastle37-1844-19.444.6< 1%< 1%100%
14. Crystal Palace37-1942-19.143.3< 1%< 1%100%
15. West Ham37-1338-12.239.9< 1%< 1%100%
16. Brighton37-1638-16.738.9< 1%< 1%100%
17. Aston Villa37-2634-26.834.9< 1%< 1%65%
18. Watford37-2734-28.134.7< 1%< 1%29%
19. Bournemouth37-2731-2831.8< 1%< 1%7%
20. Norwich37-4421-46.421.3< 1%< 1%< 1%


The Most Important Events for CL Qualifications
Leicester have 100% chance if they win against Man United; otherwise 10%
Man United have 100% chance if they draw (or win) against Leicester; otherwise 21%
Chelsea have 100% chance if they draw (or win) against Wolves; otherwise 25.5%
Man United have 100% chance if Wolves win against Chelsea; otherwise 48.1%
Chelsea have 100% chance if Man United win against Leicester; otherwise 79%


The Most Important Events for EL Qualifications
Wolves have 100% chance if Crystal Palace win against Tottenham; otherwise 68.1%
Tottenham have 86.9% chance if they draw (or win) against Crystal Palace; otherwise 55.1%
Wolves have 100% chance if they win against Chelsea; otherwise 73.9%
Tottenham have 81.1% chance if Chelsea draw (or win) against Wolves; otherwise 55.2%


The Most Important Events for New Contract
Watford have 66.5% chance if they draw (or win) against Arsenal; otherwise 6.59%
Aston Villa have 91% chance if they draw (or win) against West Ham; otherwise 43.9%
Aston Villa have 83.1% chance if Arsenal win against Watford; otherwise 33.5%
Bournemouth have 35.2% chance if they win against Everton; otherwise 0%
Watford have 44.4% chance if West Ham win against Aston Villa; otherwise 8.98%

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