World Cup: North and Central American Qualifiers

Five teams start in round 3. The remaining three teams in round 3 are identified from the six group winners in round 1 playing a head-to-head ties (round 2). Haiti, Canada and Panama are likely winning their groups (>80%), while the other groups are more open.

 

NORTH AND CENTRAL AMERICA

Country	Group	2nd round	3rd round	Playoff	Playoff Winner	Qatar
Mexico		< 1%	100%	2%	< 1%	99%
United States		< 1%	100%	13%	7%	81%
Costa Rica		< 1%	100%	19%	9%	66%
Honduras		< 1%	100%	20%	10%	35%
Jamaica		< 1%	100%	19%	10%	31%
Canada	B	88%	55%	10%	5%	17%
Haiti	E	86%	41%	6%	3%	8%
Panama	D	81%	49%	5%	2%	6%
El Salvador	A	78%	59%	3%	2%	3%
Guatemala	C	48%	26%	2%	1%	2%
Curaçao	C	52%	22%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Trinidad/Tobago	F	56%	25%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Suriname	B	11%	3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
St Kitts and Nevis	F	33%	8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Guyana	F	11%	2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Dominican Rep	D	18%	3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Barbados	D	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Puerto Rico	F	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Turks and Caicos	E	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Saint Lucia	E	2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Belize	E	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Nicaragua	E	10%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
St Vincent/Gren	C	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Bermuda	B	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Montserrat	A	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Grenada	A	10%	3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Antigua/Barbuda	A	12%	4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group A
Country	MP	Pts	Simulated Pts		2nd round	3rd round	Playoff	Playoff Winner	Qatar
El Salvador	2	4	9.15	(8-10)	78%	59%	3%	2%	3%
Grenada	2	3	6.74	(6-9)	10%	3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Antigua/Barbuda	2	4	5.99	(4-7)	12%	4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Montserrat	2	2	4	(3-5)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
US Virgin Islands	2	0	1.28	(0-3)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group B
Country	MP	Pts	Simulated Pts		2nd round	3rd round	Playoff	Playoff Winner	Qatar
Canada	2	6	11	(10-12)	88%	55%	10%	5%	17%
Suriname	2	6	8.06	(7-9)	11%	3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Bermuda	2	3	6.67	(6-9)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Cayman Islands	2	0	2.04	(1-3)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Aruba	2	0	1.3	(0-3)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group C
Country	MP	Pts	Simulated Pts		2nd round	3rd round	Playoff	Playoff Winner	Qatar
Guatemala	2	6	10.1	(9-12)	48%	26%	2%	1%	2%
Curaçao	2	6	10	(9-12)	52%	22%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Cuba	2	0	4.54	(3-6)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
St Vincent/Gren	2	3	4.49	(3-6)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Br Virgin Islands	2	0	0.205	(0-0)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group D
Country	MP	Pts	Simulated Pts		2nd round	3rd round	Playoff	Playoff Winner	Qatar
Panama	2	6	11.2	(10-12)	81%	49%	5%	2%	6%
Dominican Rep	2	6	8.27	(7-9)	18%	3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Barbados	2	3	5.69	(4-7)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Dominica	2	0	3.73	(3-4)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Anguilla	2	0	0.306	(0-0)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group E
Country	MP	Pts	Simulated Pts		2nd round	3rd round	Playoff	Playoff Winner	Qatar
Haiti	1	3	10.9	(10-12)	86%	41%	6%	3%	8%
Nicaragua	1	3	6.85	(6-9)	10%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Belize	2	3	5.62	(4-7)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Saint Lucia	0	0	4.91	(3-6)	2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Turks and Caicos	2	0	0.542	(0-1)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group F
Country	MP	Pts	Simulated Pts		2nd round	3rd round	Playoff	Playoff Winner	Qatar
Trinidad/Tobago	2	4	8.55	(7-10)	56%	25%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
St Kitts and Nevis	2	6	8.41	(7-9)	33%	8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Guyana	2	3	6.3	(5-7)	11%	2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Puerto Rico	2	1	3.42	(2-4)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Bahamas	2	0	1.33	(0-3)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

 

World Cup: European Qualifiers - Day 3

 Below are the countries ordered in decreasing probability of qualifying for World Cup 22.

 

Team	Group	2nd	1st	Playoff	Playoff Final	Playoff Winner	Qatar
France	D	4%	96%	4%	3%	3%	98%
Belgium	E	6%	93%	7%	5%	4%	97%
Denmark	F	4%	96%	4%	2%	1%	97%
England	I	5%	94%	5%	3%	2%	97%
Germany	J	7%	91%	7%	5%	3%	94%
Spain	B	22%	78%	22%	17%	13%	91%
Portugal	A	17%	82%	17%	13%	9%	91%
Netherlands	G	21%	74%	21%	16%	12%	86%
Italy	C	35%	64%	36%	25%	17%	81%
Croatia	H	27%	59%	27%	17%	11%	70%
Switzerland	C	61%	36%	61%	40%	25%	60%
Sweden	B	71%	22%	71%	40%	22%	44%
Russia	H	41%	30%	41%	22%	11%	41%
Serbia	A	77%	18%	77%	40%	20%	37%
Turkey	G	61%	22%	61%	31%	15%	37%
Wales	E	48%	5%	95%	46%	21%	25%
Austria	F	58%	3%	97%	46%	20%	23%
Czechia	E	43%	2%	96%	46%	20%	22%
Ukraine	D	50%	3%	50%	28%	15%	18%
Poland	I	61%	4%	61%	30%	13%	17%
Slovakia	H	23%	9%	23%	11%	5%	14%
Romania	J	37%	3%	37%	17%	7%	11%
Hungary	I	24%	2%	67%	23%	8%	9%
Norway	G	16%	3%	16%	7%	3%	6%
Bosnia/Herzeg	D	26%	< 1%	26%	11%	4%	5%
Slovenia	H	9%	2%	22%	8%	2%	4%
Scotland	F	26%	1%	26%	9%	3%	4%
Finland	D	20%	1%	20%	8%	3%	4%
Iceland	J	18%	1%	18%	7%	2%	4%
Armenia	J	21%	2%	21%	5%	< 1%	3%
North Macedonia	J	18%	2%	18%	4%	< 1%	3%
Ireland	A	5%	< 1%	5%	2%	1%	2%
Israel	F	12%	< 1%	12%	4%	< 1%	1%
Northern Ireland	C	4%	< 1%	4%	2%	< 1%	< 1%
Albania	I	9%	< 1%	9%	2%	< 1%	< 1%
Greece	B	4%	< 1%	4%	1%	< 1%	< 1%
Montenegro	G	2%	< 1%	3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Kosovo	B	2%	< 1%	2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Belarus	E	3%	< 1%	3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Georgia	B	1%	< 1%	1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Cyprus	H	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Bulgaria	C	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Luxembourg	A	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Kazakhstan	D	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Azerbaijan	A	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Estonia	E	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Moldova	F	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Faroe Islands	F	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Latvia	G	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Malta	H	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Lithuania	C	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group A
Country	MP	Pts	Simulated Pts		2nd	1st	Playoff	Playoff Final	Playoff Winner	Qatar
Portugal	3	7	19.3	(18-22)	17%	82%	17%	13%	9%	91%
Serbia	3	7	16.4	(15-18)	77%	18%	77%	40%	20%	37%
Ireland	2	0	9.89	(8-12)	5%	< 1%	5%	2%	1%	2%
Luxembourg	2	3	6.87	(5-9)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Azerbaijan	2	0	4.36	(3-6)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Ireland the surprise in this group so far with 0 points after losses against Serbia and Luxembourg.

Group B
Country	MP	Pts	Simulated Pts		2nd	1st	Playoff	Playoff Final	Playoff Winner	Qatar
Spain	3	7	18.8	(17-20)	22%	78%	22%	17%	13%	91%
Sweden	2	6	15.7	(14-18)	71%	22%	71%	40%	22%	44%
Greece	2	2	7.38	(5-9)	4%	< 1%	4%	1%	< 1%	< 1%
Kosovo	2	0	7.05	(5-9)	2%	< 1%	2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Georgia	3	1	6.36	(5-8)	1%	< 1%	1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

93% that Spain and Sweden finish take the top-2 spots (compared with 82% a week ago).

Group C
Country	MP	Pts	Simulated Pts		2nd	1st	Playoff	Playoff Final	Playoff Winner	Qatar
Italy	3	9	19.5	(18-21)	35%	64%	36%	25%	17%	81%
Switzerland	2	6	17.9	(16-20)	61%	36%	61%	40%	25%	60%
Northern Ireland	2	1	9.36	(7-11)	4%	< 1%	4%	2%	< 1%	< 1%
Bulgaria	3	1	7.29	(5-9)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Lithuania	2	0	2.64	(1-4)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Northern Ireland do not seem to be able to challenge favorites Italy and Switzerland.

Group D
Country	MP	Pts	Simulated Pts		2nd	1st	Playoff	Playoff Final	Playoff Winner	Qatar
France	3	7	19.1	(18-20)	4%	96%	4%	3%	3%	98%
Ukraine	3	3	11.4	(10-13)	50%	3%	50%	28%	15%	18%
Bosnia/Herzeg	2	1	9.66	(8-11)	26%	< 1%	26%	11%	4%	5%
Finland	2	2	9.5	(8-11)	20%	1%	20%	8%	3%	4%
Kazakhstan	2	1	3.86	(2-5)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

A bunch of draws so far and France very likely to win the group (96%). Ukraine challnge by Bosnia and Finland.

Group E
Country	MP	Pts	Simulated Pts		2nd	1st	Playoff	Playoff Final	Playoff Winner	Qatar
Belgium	3	7	19.7	(19-22)	6%	93%	7%	5%	4%	97%
Wales	2	3	13.6	(12-16)	48%	5%	95%	46%	21%	25%
Czechia	3	4	12.7	(11-14)	43%	2%	96%	46%	20%	22%
Belarus	2	3	7.59	(6-9)	3%	< 1%	3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Estonia	2	0	3.15	(1-4)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Belgium not winning this group would be a big surprise. Czechia stole a point from Belgium but followed up by losing against Wales, so still a very open race about the second spot. Both Wales and Czechia will most likely qualify for the playoff either as runner-up here or via their NL group win.

Group F
Country	MP	Pts	Simulated Pts		2nd	1st	Playoff	Playoff Final	Playoff Winner	Qatar
Denmark	3	9	26.1	(25-28)	4%	96%	4%	2%	1%	97%
Austria	3	4	18.2	(16-20)	58%	3%	97%	46%	20%	23%
Scotland	3	5	16.1	(14-18)	26%	1%	26%	9%	3%	4%
Israel	3	4	14.2	(12-16)	12%	< 1%	12%	4%	< 1%	1%
Moldova	3	1	4.55	(3-6)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Faroe Islands	3	1	4.53	(3-6)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Denmark have started with three wins and 14-0. Austria lost two important points against Israel and will need good results against rival Austria. Israel is a dark horse.

Group G
Country	MP	Pts	Simulated Pts		2nd	1st	Playoff	Playoff Final	Playoff Winner	Qatar
Netherlands	3	6	24.1	(22-25)	21%	74%	21%	16%	12%	86%
Turkey	3	7	21.7	(20-23)	61%	22%	61%	31%	15%	37%
Norway	3	6	18.1	(16-20)	16%	3%	16%	7%	3%	6%
Montenegro	3	6	13.6	(12-15)	2%	< 1%	3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Latvia	3	1	5.99	(4-8)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Gibraltar	3	0	2.74	(1-4)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Turkey have won against both Norway and Netherlands, but lost two points against Latvia. Netherlands still favorites followed by Turkey.

Group H
Country	MP	Pts	Simulated Pts		2nd	1st	Playoff	Playoff Final	Playoff Winner	Qatar
Croatia	3	6	21	(19-23)	27%	59%	27%	17%	11%	70%
Russia	3	6	19.2	(17-21)	41%	30%	41%	22%	11%	41%
Slovakia	3	5	16.5	(15-18)	23%	9%	23%	11%	5%	14%
Slovenia	3	3	14	(12-16)	9%	2%	22%	8%	2%	4%
Cyprus	3	4	10.1	(8-12)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Malta	3	1	3.73	(2-5)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Very open group, in which both Russia and Slovakia benefit from Croatia's chock loss against their neighbour, Slovenia.

Group I
Country	MP	Pts	Simulated Pts		2nd	1st	Playoff	Playoff Final	Playoff Winner	Qatar
England	3	9	26.8	(25-28)	5%	94%	5%	3%	2%	97%
Poland	3	4	19.9	(18-22)	61%	4%	61%	30%	13%	17%
Hungary	3	7	18	(16-20)	24%	2%	67%	23%	8%	9%
Albania	3	6	15.6	(14-17)	9%	< 1%	9%	2%	< 1%	< 1%
Andorra	3	0	4.72	(3-6)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
San Marino	3	0	1.59	(0-3)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

England have with three initial wins increased their chances from 87% to 97%. Hungary have done the expected with wins against San Marino and Andorra as as a draw against rival Poland.

Group J
Country	MP	Pts	Simulated Pts		2nd	1st	Playoff	Playoff Final	Playoff Winner	Qatar
Germany	3	6	23.6	(22-25)	7%	91%	7%	5%	3%	94%
Romania	3	3	16.5	(15-19)	37%	3%	37%	17%	7%	11%
Armenia	3	9	16	(14-18)	21%	2%	21%	5%	< 1%	3%
Iceland	3	3	14.7	(13-17)	18%	1%	18%	7%	2%	4%
North Macedonia	3	6	14.6	(12-17)	18%	2%	18%	4%	< 1%	3%
Liechtenstein	3	0	1.45	(0-3)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Germany still favorites despite the chock loss against North Macedonia. After them an open race between Romania, Armenia, Iceland and North Macedonia. Romania favorites but their loss against Armenia did not help.

Two countries not finishing top-2 in their group will get a 2nd chance in the playoff via their NL group win. They are included in the order as indicated below. The first four teams are most likely finisging top-2 and not using the NL spot, but one of Wales and Czechia in the same group will most likely use their spot.

Nation League Group Winners

NL Rank	Country	Group	NL spot	2nd	1st	Playoff	Playoff Final	Playoff Winner	Qatar
1	France	D	< 1%	4%	96%	4%	3%	3%	98%
2	Belgium	E	< 1%	6%	93%	7%	5%	4%	97%
3	Italy	C	< 1%	35%	64%	36%	25%	17%	81%
4	Spain	B	< 1%	22%	78%	22%	17%	13%	91%
5	Wales	E	47%	48%	5%	95%	46%	21%	25%
6	Austria	F	39%	58%	3%	97%	46%	20%	23%
7	Czechia	E	54%	43%	2%	96%	46%	20%	22%
8	Hungary	I	42%	24%	2%	67%	23%	8%	9%
9	Slovenia	H	13%	9%	2%	22%	8%	2%	4%
10	Montenegro	G	2%	2%	< 1%	3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
11	Albania	I	< 1%	9%	< 1%	9%	2%	< 1%	< 1%
12	Armenia	J	< 1%	21%	2%	21%	5%	< 1%	3%
14	Faroe Islands	F	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

World Cup: European Qualifiers - Matchday 2

 
EUROPE

Team	Group	2nd	1st	Playoff	Playoff Final	Playoff Winner	Qatar
Germany	J	4%	96%	4%	2%	2%	98%
Belgium	E	8%	91%	9%	7%	5%	96%
France	D	12%	86%	14%	11%	8%	94%
England	I	10%	88%	10%	7%	5%	92%
Portugal	A	16%	82%	16%	12%	8%	91%
Spain	B	23%	76%	24%	18%	14%	90%
Denmark	F	13%	85%	13%	8%	5%	89%
Italy	C	36%	63%	37%	26%	17%	79%
Netherlands	G	38%	58%	38%	28%	21%	78%
Croatia	H	33%	51%	33%	21%	13%	64%
Switzerland	C	57%	37%	57%	37%	22%	59%
Turkey	G	53%	40%	53%	26%	12%	53%
Russia	H	37%	39%	37%	19%	9%	48%
Sweden	B	67%	23%	67%	37%	19%	43%
Serbia	A	74%	17%	74%	37%	18%	34%
Austria	F	62%	13%	86%	40%	17%	30%
Ukraine	D	56%	10%	56%	31%	16%	26%
Czechia	E	55%	6%	93%	43%	18%	24%
Wales	E	33%	3%	96%	45%	19%	23%
Poland	I	61%	10%	61%	29%	13%	23%
Romania	J	65%	3%	65%	29%	12%	16%
Hungary	I	20%	2%	73%	25%	8%	10%
Slovakia	H	14%	5%	14%	7%	3%	8%
Slovenia	H	16%	4%	28%	9%	3%	7%
Bosnia/Herzeg	D	20%	3%	20%	8%	3%	6%
Scotland	F	18%	2%	18%	6%	2%	4%
Finland	D	12%	1%	12%	5%	2%	3%
Norway	G	7%	1%	7%	3%	1%	2%
Ireland	A	8%	< 1%	8%	3%	1%	2%
Iceland	J	16%	< 1%	16%	6%	2%	2%
Northern Ireland	C	7%	< 1%	7%	3%	< 1%	2%
Montenegro	G	3%	< 1%	6%	1%	< 1%	< 1%
Armenia	J	10%	< 1%	10%	2%	< 1%	< 1%
Greece	B	6%	< 1%	6%	1%	< 1%	< 1%
Israel	F	7%	< 1%	7%	2%	< 1%	< 1%
Albania	I	8%	< 1%	8%	2%	< 1%	< 1%
Kosovo	B	3%	< 1%	3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
North Macedonia	J	5%	< 1%	5%	1%	< 1%	< 1%
Belarus	E	4%	< 1%	4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Georgia	B	2%	< 1%	2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Luxembourg	A	1%	< 1%	1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Bulgaria	C	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Cyprus	H	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Azerbaijan	A	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Kazakhstan	D	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Estonia	E	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Lithuania	C	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Moldova	F	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Faroe Islands	F	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Malta	H	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Latvia	G	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Andorra	I	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Liechtenstein	J	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group A
Country	MP	Pts	Simulated Pts		2nd	1st	Playoff	Playoff Final	Playoff Winner	Qatar
Portugal	2	4	19	(17-20)	16%	82%	16%	12%	8%	91%
Serbia	2	4	15.7	(14-17)	74%	17%	74%	37%	18%	34%
Ireland	2	0	9.89	(8-12)	8%	< 1%	8%	3%	1%	2%
Luxembourg	1	3	7.05	(5-9)	1%	< 1%	1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Azerbaijan	1	0	4.9	(3-7)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group B
Country	MP	Pts	Simulated Pts		2nd	1st	Playoff	Playoff Final	Playoff Winner	Qatar
Spain	2	4	18.6	(17-20)	23%	76%	24%	18%	14%	90%
Sweden	2	6	15.7	(14-18)	67%	23%	67%	37%	19%	43%
Greece	1	1	8.1	(6-10)	6%	< 1%	6%	1%	< 1%	< 1%
Kosovo	1	0	7.22	(5-9)	3%	< 1%	3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Georgia	2	0	6.42	(4-8)	2%	< 1%	2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group C
Country	MP	Pts	Simulated Pts		2nd	1st	Playoff	Playoff Final	Playoff Winner	Qatar
Italy	2	6	19.2	(18-21)	36%	63%	37%	26%	17%	79%
Switzerland	2	6	17.9	(16-20)	57%	37%	57%	37%	22%	59%
Northern Ireland	1	0	10.4	(8-12)	7%	< 1%	7%	3%	< 1%	2%
Bulgaria	2	0	7.09	(5-9)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Lithuania	1	0	2.86	(1-4)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group D
Country	MP	Pts	Simulated Pts		2nd	1st	Playoff	Playoff Final	Playoff Winner	Qatar
France	2	4	18.3	(17-20)	12%	86%	14%	11%	8%	94%
Ukraine	2	2	13.1	(11-15)	56%	10%	56%	31%	16%	26%
Bosnia/Herzeg	1	1	10.3	(8-12)	20%	3%	20%	8%	3%	6%
Finland	2	2	9.5	(8-11)	12%	1%	12%	5%	2%	3%
Kazakhstan	1	0	3.07	(1-4)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group E
Country	MP	Pts	Simulated Pts		2nd	1st	Playoff	Playoff Final	Playoff Winner	Qatar
Belgium	2	4	19.5	(18-22)	8%	91%	9%	7%	5%	96%
Czechia	2	4	13.7	(12-16)	55%	6%	93%	43%	18%	24%
Wales	1	0	12.3	(10-15)	33%	3%	96%	45%	19%	23%
Belarus	1	3	7.71	(6-10)	4%	< 1%	4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Estonia	2	0	3.15	(1-4)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group F
Country	MP	Pts	Simulated Pts		2nd	1st	Playoff	Playoff Final	Playoff Winner	Qatar
Denmark	2	6	24.6	(23-27)	13%	85%	13%	8%	5%	89%
Austria	2	4	19.5	(17-22)	62%	13%	86%	40%	17%	30%
Scotland	2	2	15.7	(14-18)	18%	2%	18%	6%	2%	4%
Israel	2	1	13.2	(11-15)	7%	< 1%	7%	2%	< 1%	< 1%
Moldova	2	1	5.38	(3-7)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Faroe Islands	2	1	4.77	(3-6)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group G
Country	MP	Pts	Simulated Pts		2nd	1st	Playoff	Playoff Final	Playoff Winner	Qatar
Netherlands	2	3	24	(22-25)	38%	58%	38%	28%	21%	78%
Turkey	2	6	23.6	(22-25)	53%	40%	53%	26%	12%	53%
Norway	2	3	16.7	(15-19)	7%	1%	7%	3%	1%	2%
Montenegro	2	6	14.8	(13-17)	3%	< 1%	6%	1%	< 1%	< 1%
Latvia	2	0	5.12	(3-7)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Gibraltar	2	0	2.79	(1-4)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group H
Country	MP	Pts	Simulated Pts		2nd	1st	Playoff	Playoff Final	Playoff Winner	Qatar
Croatia	2	3	20.9	(19-23)	33%	51%	33%	21%	13%	64%
Russia	2	6	20.4	(18-22)	37%	39%	37%	19%	9%	48%
Slovenia	2	3	15.8	(14-18)	16%	4%	28%	9%	3%	7%
Slovakia	2	2	15.1	(13-17)	14%	5%	14%	7%	3%	8%
Cyprus	2	1	8.07	(6-10)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Malta	2	1	3.78	(2-5)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group I
Country	MP	Pts	Simulated Pts		2nd	1st	Playoff	Playoff Final	Playoff Winner	Qatar
England	2	6	26	(24-28)	10%	88%	10%	7%	5%	92%
Poland	2	4	20.5	(19-22)	61%	10%	61%	29%	13%	23%
Hungary	2	4	17.6	(16-20)	20%	2%	73%	25%	8%	10%
Albania	2	3	15.4	(13-17)	8%	< 1%	8%	2%	< 1%	< 1%
Andorra	2	0	4.99	(4-6)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
San Marino	2	0	1.74	(0-3)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group J
Country	MP	Pts	Simulated Pts		2nd	1st	Playoff	Playoff Final	Playoff Winner	Qatar
Germany	2	6	26.3	(25-28)	4%	96%	4%	2%	2%	98%
Romania	2	3	18.3	(16-21)	65%	3%	65%	29%	12%	16%
Iceland	2	0	14.2	(12-16)	16%	< 1%	16%	6%	2%	2%
Armenia	2	6	13.9	(12-16)	10%	< 1%	10%	2%	< 1%	< 1%
North Macedonia	2	3	11.8	(10-14)	5%	< 1%	5%	1%	< 1%	< 1%
Liechtenstein	2	0	1.78	(0-3)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Nation League Group Winners

NL Rank	Country	Group	NL spot	2nd	1st	Playoff	Playoff Final	Playoff Winner	Qatar
1	France	D	2%	12%	86%	14%	11%	8%	94%
2	Belgium	E	< 1%	8%	91%	9%	7%	5%	96%
3	Italy	C	2%	36%	63%	37%	26%	17%	79%
4	Spain	B	1%	23%	76%	24%	18%	14%	90%
5	Wales	E	64%	33%	3%	96%	45%	19%	23%
6	Austria	F	24%	62%	13%	86%	40%	17%	30%
7	Czechia	E	38%	55%	6%	93%	43%	18%	24%
8	Hungary	I	53%	20%	2%	73%	25%	8%	10%
9	Slovenia	H	12%	16%	4%	28%	9%	3%	7%
10	Montenegro	G	3%	3%	< 1%	6%	1%	< 1%	< 1%
11	Albania	I	< 1%	8%	< 1%	8%	2%	< 1%	< 1%
12	Armenia	J	< 1%	10%	< 1%	10%	2%	< 1%	< 1%
14	Faroe Islands	F	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%