PL: Week 31

Man United have almost clinched (99.7%) top-4. The remaining two spots seem to be between Leicester, Chelsea, West Ham, and Liverpool, all with 40-61%, and Tottenham as a outsider (7%).

 

Simulated points for winner: 85 - 89
Simulated points for fourth: 66 - 69
Simulated points for 17th team: 36 - 39

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League
74	Man City	86.9	+52	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	100%	99.31%
63	Man United	76.5	+33	< 1%	>99.99%	>99.99%	99.95%	99.71%	< 1%
56	Leicester	67.3	+21	< 1%	98.0%	92%	79%	61%	< 1%
54	Chelsea	66.3	+23	< 1%	96.0%	87%	71%	50%	< 1%
55	West Ham	65.9	+14	< 1%	94%	82%	61%	40%	< 1%
52	Liverpool	65.4	+22	< 1%	95%	84%	64%	40%	< 1%
49	Tottenham	61.2	+21	< 1%	64%	34%	17%	7%	< 1%
47	Everton	59.0	+2	< 1%	29%	13%	5%	2.0%	< 1%
45	Arsenal	57.8	+13	< 1%	19%	7%	2.1%	< 1%	< 1%
45	Leeds	53.6	-2	< 1%	2.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
44	Aston Villa	53.3	+7	< 1%	2.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
38	Wolves	48.6	-9	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
36	Southampton	46.2	-16	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
38	Crystal Palace	45.2	-23	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
33	Burnley	41.7	-19	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
32	Brighton	40.7	-10	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
32	Newcastle	39.1	-23	5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
26	Fulham	31.4	-23	93%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
21	West Brom	27.5	-42	99.48%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
14	Sheffield United	21.0	-43	>99.99%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Coming Matches

Home		Draw		Away
West Brom	35%	24%	41%	Southampton
Brighton	42%	24%	34%	Everton
Everton	42%	24%	34%	Tottenham
Newcastle	35%	24%	41%	West Ham
Wolves	65%	19%	16%	Sheffield United
Arsenal	70%	17%	13%	Fulham
Man United	69%	17%	13%	Burnley
Leeds	28%	23%	49%	Liverpool
Chelsea	70%	17%	13%	Brighton