Tuesday, May 4, 2021

PL: Matchweek 34

 

Simulated points for winner: 87 - 90
Simulated points for fourth: 66 - 68
Simulated points for 17th team: 38 - 40



Average Simulated
Season		Probabilities
PtsTeamPtsGDRelegatedTop 7Top 6Top 5Top 4Win LeagueECLELCL
80Man City88.7+52< 1%100%100%100%100%99.98%< 1%< 1%100%
67Man United76.9+34< 1%100%100%>99.99%99.98%< 1%< 1%< 1%>99.99%
63Leicester68.4+22< 1%99.97%98.6%94%82%< 1%< 1%17%82%
61Chelsea67.1+23< 1%99.78%96.8%88%71%< 1%1.1%25%73%
58West Ham64.7+13< 1%95.5%80%55%23%< 1%16%56%23%
54Liverpool63.1+20< 1%91%63%35%14%< 1%29%49%14%
56Tottenham62.4+23< 1%88%54%26%10%< 1%34%44%10%
52Everton58.7+2< 1%20%7%2.0%< 1%< 1%14%7%< 1%
49Arsenal55.9+11< 1%3.3%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%2.8%< 1%17%
48Aston Villa53.6+8< 1%1.7%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%1.6%< 1%< 1%
47Leeds52.8-2< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
42Wolves46.8-14< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
38Crystal Palace43.7-24< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
37Southampton43.5-19< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
36Burnley41.6-16< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
37Brighton40.7-8< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
36Newcastle40.6-21< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
27Fulham31.2-2298.9%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
26West Brom29.3-3899.96%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
17Sheffield United21.2-44100%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%


Coming Matches
Home
Draw
Away
Leicester63%20%17%Newcastle
Leeds40%24%36%Tottenham
Sheffield United40%24%35%Crystal Palace
Man City64%19%16%Chelsea
Liverpool71%17%12%Southampton
Wolves55%22%23%Brighton
Aston Villa26%23%51%Man United
West Ham51%23%26%Everton
Arsenal71%17%12%West Brom
Fulham39%24%37%Burnley
Southampton49%23%27%Crystal Palace
Man United63%20%17%Leicester
Chelsea55%22%23%Arsenal
Aston Villa42%24%33%Everton
Newcastle17%20%64%Man City
Burnley48%24%28%Leeds
Southampton55%22%23%Fulham
Brighton38%24%37%West Ham
Crystal Palace46%24%30%Aston Villa
Tottenham58%21%21%Wolves
West Brom21%21%58%Liverpool
Everton67%19%15%Sheffield United
Man United53%23%24%Liverpool
Man United79%13%8%Fulham
Everton53%23%25%Wolves
Newcastle58%21%20%Sheffield United
Brighton17%20%64%Man City
Tottenham61%21%19%Aston Villa
Chelsea57%22%21%Leicester
Crystal Palace33%24%43%Arsenal
Burnley31%24%45%Liverpool
Southampton44%24%32%Leeds
West Brom31%24%45%West Ham
Leicester49%23%28%Tottenham
Wolves28%23%48%Man United
West Ham60%21%19%Southampton
Sheffield United36%24%40%Burnley
Fulham43%24%33%Newcastle
Leeds62%20%18%West Brom
Arsenal64%19%16%Brighton
Aston Villa30%24%46%Chelsea
Man City75%15%10%Everton
Liverpool71%17%12%Crystal Palace


Road to Europe


Leicester
they win against Tottenham
YesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
< 1%< 1%5%95%< 1%2%29%70%
they win against Newcastlethey win against Newcastle
YesNoYesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
< 1%< 1%1%99%< 1%< 1%13%87%< 1%< 1%17%83%< 1%4%48%48%
Chelsea win against LeicesterChelsea win against LeicesterChelsea win against Leicesterthey win against Chelsea
YesNoYesNoYesNoYesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
< 1%< 1%2%98%< 1%< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%20%80%< 1%< 1%2%98%< 1%< 1%27%72%< 1%< 1%4%96%< 1%< 1%10%90%< 1%5%58%36%

Chelsea
they win against Leicester
YesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
< 1%< 1%13%87%< 1%2%42%55%
they win against Arsenalthey win against Aston Villa
YesNoYesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
< 1%< 1%3%97%< 1%< 1%25%75%< 1%< 1%25%74%< 1%4%56%39%
they win against Aston Villathey win against Aston Villathey win against ArsenalMan City win CL
YesNoYesNoYesNoYesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
< 1%< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%6%94%< 1%< 1%6%94%< 1%< 1%41%58%< 1%< 1%10%90%< 1%< 1%45%54%< 1%5%62%33%< 1%< 1%< 1%100%

West Ham
they win against Everton
YesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
< 1%8%56%35%9%24%57%10%
they win against West Bromthey win against Brighton
YesNoYesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
< 1%2%43%55%< 1%13%67%19%2%12%64%22%13%32%52%3%
they win against Southamptonthey win against Brightonthey win against West Bromthey win against West Brom
YesNoYesNoYesNoYesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
< 1%< 1%28%72%< 1%4%66%30%< 1%3%57%40%< 1%20%73%7%< 1%3%56%40%3%20%70%7%3%20%70%7%21%41%38%< 1%

Tottenham
they win against Leicester
YesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
3%20%50%27%15%40%42%3%
they win against Leedsthey win against Leeds
YesNoYesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
< 1%7%41%52%4%27%55%14%4%28%60%8%21%47%32%< 1%
they win against Aston Villathey win against Wolvesthey win against Wolvesthey win against Aston Villa
YesNoYesNoYesNoYesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
< 1%2%29%70%< 1%15%61%24%< 1%15%61%23%8%43%47%2%< 1%17%69%14%8%43%47%1%9%46%44%< 1%39%47%13%< 1%

Liverpool
they win against Burnley
YesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
3%19%55%24%14%37%44%5%
they win against West Bromthey win against West Brom
YesNoYesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
< 1%10%55%34%6%30%55%9%6%31%55%8%24%46%29%< 1%
they win against Man Unitedthey win against Man Unitedthey win against Man Unitedthey win against Man United
YesNoYesNoYesNoYesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
< 1%2%30%68%< 1%13%63%24%< 1%11%60%28%7%36%54%3%< 1%12%62%26%8%37%53%3%7%34%55%4%30%49%20%< 1%

Everton
they win against West Ham
YesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
56%24%18%1%86%11%3%< 1%
they win against Aston Villathey win against Aston Villa
YesNoYesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
31%30%36%3%69%22%10%< 1%72%21%6%< 1%94%6%< 1%< 1%
they win against Wolvesthey win against Wolvesthey win against Wolvesthey win against Man City
YesNoYesNoYesNoYesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
15%28%53%5%50%32%17%< 1%52%31%16%< 1%86%11%2%< 1%59%30%11%< 1%88%11%2%< 1%75%20%5%< 1%96%4%< 1%< 1%

Arsenal
they win EL
YesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
< 1%< 1%< 1%100%96%3%< 1%< 1%

they win against Chelsea


YesNo








NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL








87%11%2%< 1%99%1%< 1%< 1%


they win against Crystal Palacethey win against Crystal Palace




YesNoYesNo
















NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
















75%20%5%< 1%96%4%< 1%< 1%97%3%< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%< 1%

Aston Villa
they win against Tottenham
YesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
92%6%2%< 1%99%< 1%< 1%< 1%
they win against Evertonthey win against Man United
YesNoYesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
85%12%3%< 1%98%2%< 1%< 1%98%2%< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%< 1%
they win against Chelseathey win against Man Unitedthey win against Evertonthey win against Chelsea
YesNoYesNoYesNoYesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
67%24%9%< 1%93%6%1%< 1%93%6%< 1%< 1%99%< 1%< 1%< 1%96%4%< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%< 1%99%< 1%< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%< 1%

Leeds
they win against Southampton
YesNo
NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL
99%< 1%< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%< 1%
they win against Burnley
YesNo

NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL







98%2%< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%< 1%







they win against TottenhamMan City win CL

YesNoYesNo



NoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCLNoneECLELCL















94%6%< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%< 1%99%< 1%< 1%< 1%

























 

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