Friday, June 11, 2021

Euro 2020

We have simulated the tournament 1,000,000 times. The table below shows how often each country reach the different stages.

CountryR16QFSemiFinalChamp
Belgium94%70%50%32%20%
France84%58%41%25%15%
Spain98%72%40%23%12%
Italy95%64%36%19%9%
Portugal77%48%31%17%9%
England97%50%26%15%9%
Denmark94%57%32%15%6%
Netherlands96%60%29%13%5%
Germany82%41%24%10%4%
Switzerland67%30%13%4%1%
Sweden71%33%11%3%1%
Croatia67%27%9%3%< 1%
Wales57%23%8%2%< 1%
Ukraine67%25%8%2%< 1%
Poland64%27%8%2%< 1%
Turkey48%17%6%1%< 1%
Czechia52%17%4%1%< 1%
Austria53%16%4%1%< 1%
Russia49%15%4%< 1%< 1%
Hungary29%7%2%< 1%< 1%
Scotland47%11%2%< 1%< 1%
Finland24%6%1%< 1%< 1%
Romania47%9%1%< 1%< 1%
Slovakia28%6%1%< 1%< 1%


Group AMPGDPts4th3rd2nd1stR16QFSemiFinalChamp
Italy00-004%9%22%65%95%64%36%19%9%
Switzerland00-0024%29%31%16%67%31%13%5%2%
Wales00-0032%31%26%11%58%24%9%3%< 1%
Turkey00-0040%30%21%8%49%18%6%2%< 1%

Statistically, the most important matches are Switzerland's matches against Turkey and Wales.

Group BMPGDPts4th3rd2nd1stR16QFSemiFinalChamp
Belgium00-003%12%36%49%95%70%50%32%20%
Denmark00-004%12%40%44%94%57%33%16%7%
Russia00-0032%47%16%5%50%15%4%< 1%< 1%
Finland00-0061%29%8%2%25%7%2%< 1%< 1%

The most important matches are Belgium's matches against Finland and Russia.

Group CMPGDPts4th3rd2nd1stR16QFSemiFinalChamp
Netherlands00-002%7%20%71%97%60%29%13%6%
Ukraine00-0023%29%34%14%68%26%8%3%< 1%
Austria00-0035%32%24%9%53%16%4%1%< 1%
Romania00-0040%32%22%6%47%9%2%< 1%< 1%

Ukraine's matches against Romania and Austria are key in this group.
 

Group DMPGDPts4th3rd2nd1stR16QFSemiFinalChamp
England00-002%6%19%72%97%51%26%15%9%
Croatia00-0023%29%34%14%67%28%9%3%< 1%
Czechia00-0036%32%24%8%52%17%5%1%< 1%
Scotland00-0039%32%22%6%48%12%2%< 1%< 1%

Croatia is key in this group with their matches against Scotland and Czechia.

Group EMPGDPts4th3rd2nd1stR16QFSemiFinalChamp
Spain00-001%5%18%76%98%72%41%23%12%
Sweden00-0018%32%38%12%71%33%11%4%1%
Poland00-0023%36%32%9%64%27%8%3%< 1%
Slovakia00-0058%27%12%2%29%7%1%< 1%< 1%

Key matches in this group are Slovakia's matches against Sweden and Poland.

Group FMPGDPts4th3rd2nd1stR16QFSemiFinalChamp
France00-0011%22%30%38%85%59%41%26%15%
Germany00-0012%27%31%31%82%41%25%11%4%
Portugal00-0016%28%29%27%78%48%31%18%9%
Hungary00-0061%24%10%5%30%8%3%< 1%< 1%

In 75% of the simulations three countries from group reached R16, which is the highest of all groups basically because Hungary has the toughest draw of all countries. Key matches in the group will be the ones involving Hungary.

 

The table below shows which countries are most likely to reach the different parts of the bracket. 

Last 16
Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Final
Champions
Belgium (49%)
Denmark (44%)



Belgium (37%)
Denmark (27%)
Portugal (5%)
France (5%)

Poland (12%)
Sweden (11%)
Portugal (10%)
Germany (10%)
France (8%)







Belgium (25%)
Italy (25%)
Denmark (15%)
Netherlands (6%)

Italy (65%)
Switzerland (16%)







Italy (48%)
Ukraine (12%)
Netherlands (10%)



Ukraine (34%)
Austria (24%)
Romania (22%)
Netherlands (20%)











France (18%)
Belgium (17%)
Italy (14%)
Portugal (11%)
Denmark (7%)

France (38%)
Germany (31%)
Portugal (27%)









France (34%)
Portugal (25%)
Germany (22%)
Hungary (3%)





Germany (11%)
Portugal (11%)
Poland (11%)
Sweden (10%)
Czechia (9%)











France (25%)
Portugal (17%)
Germany (15%)
Sweden (8%)



Croatia (34%)
Czechia (24%)
Scotland (22%)
England (19%)









Sweden (20%)
Croatia (17%)
Poland (16%)
Spain (13%)
England (13%)





Sweden (38%)
Poland (32%)
Spain (18%)















Belgium (20%)
France (15%)
Spain (12%)
Italy (9%)
Portugal (9%)
Spain (76%)
Sweden (12%)









Spain (57%)
Sweden (7%)
Poland (5%)





Austria (11%)
Ukraine (11%)
Romania (11%)
Russia (10%)
Czechia (6%)











Spain (32%)
England (19%)
France (13%)
Portugal (11%)



England (72%)
Croatia (14%)









England (35%)
France (20%)
Portugal (18%)
Germany (16%)





Germany (31%)
France (30%)
Portugal (29%)













Spain (19%)
Belgium (15%)
England (12%)
Netherlands (10%)
France (8%)

Netherlands (71%)
Ukraine (14%)







Netherlands (49%)
Ukraine (11%)
Austria (7%)



Russia (18%)
Finland (9%)
Austria (9%)
Ukraine (9%)
Wales (9%)









Belgium (23%)
Netherlands (23%)
Denmark (17%)
Italy (10%)
Switzerland (8%)

Switzerland (31%)
Wales (26%)
Italy (22%)
Turkey (21%)





Belgium (27%)
Denmark (24%)
Switzerland (13%)
Italy (12%)

Denmark (40%)
Belgium (36%)
Russia (16%)


The table below shows probabilities for countries finishing third in groups. The 'Probability' column indicates the probability that a 'third team' finishes with the different point and goal difference. Column 'Last 16' probability that one of the four "third teams" finish with the different points and goal difference, and column 'Chance', the chance to qualify for R16 if they finish with the described point and goal difference. Currently, the border for finishing among the best four third teams goes somewhere at 3 points and goal difference 2-5.

PtsGDProbabilityLast 16Chance
4-30%30%99.04%
307%6%92%
34-52.5%2.1%85%
33-42.2%1.8%82%
34-62.6%1.9%73%
33-52.7%1.8%68%
32-41.6%1.0%65%
34-72.0%1.1%57%
33-62.3%1.2%53%
32-51.5%< 1%49%
33-71.6%< 1%40%
3-53.4%1.0%31%
3-61.8%< 1%26%
2-15%< 1%16%
2-23.3%< 1%9%

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