Euro: Group D and E

Group D

Group D	MP	GD			Pts	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
England	1	1	-	0	3	< 1%	3%	16%	81%	99%	51%	27%	16%	9%
Czechia	1	2	-	0	3	5%	36%	44%	15%	86%	31%	9%	2%	< 1%
Croatia	1	0	-	1	0	25%	36%	36%	2%	60%	27%	9%	3%	< 1%
Scotland	1	0	-	2	0	70%	25%	4%	2%	19%	5%	1%	< 1%	< 1%

As shown in table below, Czechia clinch R16 if they take a point against Croatia.

 

Czechia

England - Scotland
Home	Draw	Away
88%	79%	74%	Cro - Cze
74%	55%	45%	69%	Home
100%	100%	100%	100%	Draw
100%	100%	100%	100%	Away

England clinch R16 if they take point against Scotland.

England

England - Scotland
Home	Draw	Away
100%	100%	92%	Cro - Cze
100%	100%	90%	99%	Home
100%	100%	92%	99%	Draw
100%	100%	96%	100%	Away

Croatia

England - Scotland
Home	Draw	Away
60%	63%	59%	Cro - Cze
84%	88%	86%	85%	Home
46%	45%	41%	46%	Draw
36%	37%	31%	36%	Away

Scotland

England - Scotland
Home	Draw	Away
13%	29%	59%	Cro - Cze
12%	31%	58%	18%	Home
15%	30%	61%	21%	Draw
14%	26%	60%	19%	Away

 

Group E

Group E	MP	GD			Pts	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
Spain	1	0	-	0	1	2%	8%	23%	67%	97%	69%	39%	23%	12%
Sweden	1	0	-	0	1	15%	22%	45%	18%	80%	39%	14%	4%	1%
Slovakia	1	2	-	1	3	6%	57%	25%	12%	68%	18%	3%	< 1%	< 1%
Poland	1	1	-	2	0	76%	13%	7%	3%	20%	8%	3%	< 1%	< 1%

Slovakia clinch R16 if they win against Sweden; if they draw, they almost certainly clinch R16.

Slovakia

Spain - Poland
Home	Draw	Away
70%	67%	59%	Swe - Slo
50%	40%	30%	47%	Home
99%	100%	99%	99%	Draw
100%	100%	100%	100%	Away

Sweden clinch R16 if they win against Slovakia and Spain and Poland do not draw.

Sweden

Spain - Poland
Home	Draw	Away
82%	78%	76%	Swe - Slo
100%	99%	100%	100%	Home
67%	61%	43%	63%	Draw
43%	39%	39%	41%	Away

Spain clinch R16 if they beat Poland.

Spain

Spain - Poland
Home	Draw	Away
100%	92%	85%	Swe - Slo
100%	90%	84%	97%	Home
100%	95%	84%	97%	Draw
100%	93%	87%	97%	Away

Poland

Spain - Poland
Home	Draw	Away
9%	37%	64%	Swe - Slo
< 1%	37%	62%	13%	Home
21%	36%	65%	28%	Draw
23%	40%	66%	31%	Away

The updated bracket

Last 16		Quarter-finals		Semi-finals		Final		Champions
Belgium (71%) Denmark (19%)
		Belgium (52%) Denmark (12%) Portugal (6%)
Slovakia (13%) Germany (13%) Portugal (13%) France (10%) Hungary (9%)
				Belgium (35%) Italy (29%) Denmark (6%) Ukraine (4%)
Italy (81%) Switzerland (10%)
		Italy (59%) Ukraine (14%) Austria (10%)
Ukraine (43%) Austria (40%) Netherlands (14%)
						Belgium (25%) Italy (17%) France (15%) Portugal (9%)
France (38%) Germany (31%) Portugal (27%)
		France (29%) Portugal (20%) Germany (19%) Denmark (9%)
Denmark (19%) Austria (17%) Ukraine (13%) Finland (12%) Russia (10%)
				France (21%) Portugal (14%) Germany (14%) Spain (9%) Sweden (8%)
Czechia (44%) Croatia (36%) England (16%)
		Sweden (24%) Czechia (19%) Croatia (18%) Spain (17%)
Sweden (45%) Slovakia (25%) Spain (23%)
								Belgium (21%) France (15%) Spain (12%) Italy (10%) Portugal (9%)
Spain (67%) Sweden (18%)
		Spain (48%) Sweden (9%) Denmark (7%)
Austria (18%) Ukraine (14%) Denmark (11%) Czechia (9%) Croatia (7%)
				Spain (27%) England (21%) France (13%) Portugal (11%)
England (81%) Czechia (15%)
		England (39%) France (20%) Portugal (18%) Germany (15%)
Germany (31%) Portugal (30%) France (29%)
						Spain (18%) England (14%) Netherlands (12%) France (10%) Portugal (9%)
Netherlands (83%) Austria (13%)
		Netherlands (52%) Austria (5%) Portugal (5%)
Slovakia (18%) Czechia (14%) Croatia (12%) Sweden (10%) Germany (8%)
				Netherlands (28%) Belgium (13%) Denmark (9%) Switzerland (8%)
Switzerland (35%) Wales (31%) Turkey (22%)
		Switzerland (18%) Belgium (18%) Denmark (15%) Wales (15%) Finland (11%)
Finland (36%) Denmark (25%) Belgium (24%) Russia (15%)

Pts	GD	Probability	Last 16	Chance
4	-	30%	30%	99.1%
3	0	8%	7%	91%
3	4-5	2.8%	2.3%	84%
3	3-4	2.6%	2.0%	79%
3	4-6	2.5%	1.8%	73%
3	3-5	2.8%	1.9%	66%
3	2-4	1.7%	1.1%	65%
3	4-7	2.3%	1.3%	57%
3	3-6	3.1%	1.5%	50%
3	2-5	2.1%	1.0%	47%
3	3-7	2.1%	< 1%	34%
3	2-6	1.8%	< 1%	31%
3	-5	3.8%	< 1%	25%
3	-6	1.9%	< 1%	20%
2	-1	5%	< 1%	7%