Wednesday, June 16, 2021

Euro: Group of Death

 

Group FMPGDPts4th3rd2nd1stR16QFSemiFinalChamp
France11-033%9%34%54%96%68%49%30%18%
Portugal13-031%26%36%37%97%61%40%22%11%
Germany10-1015%50%28%8%73%35%18%8%3%
Hungary10-3081%15%3%< 1%12%3%< 1%< 1%< 1%


Portugal clinch R16 if they win against Germany and almost (99.97%) if they draw.


Portugal - Germany
HomeDraw-1-2-3-4
100%99.97%94%91%86%81%Hun - Fra
100%99.96%84%82%79%76%93%Home
100%99.96%91%89%84%78%95.7%Draw
100%99.97%96.8%94%89%82%97.7%Away

 

France clinch R16 if they win and 99.88% if they draw Hungary.

Portugal - Germany
HomeDrawAway
97.3%95.7%95%Hun - Fra
70%68%63%67%+4
72%71%65%69%+3
74%72%66%71%+2
89%75%70%79%+1
99.99%99.97%99.7%99.88%Draw
100%100%100%100%Away

Germany's chances given different results in match day 2

Portugal - Germany
+4+3+2+1DrawAway
40%48%57%62%70%91%Hun - Fra
43%50%57%62%69%92%73%Home
39%48%57%63%71%91%74%Draw
39%48%57%62%71%91%73%Away



 

Hungary's chances to reach R16 given different result in next match.


Portugal - Germany
HomeDrawAway
12%12%11%Hun - Fra
54%48%49%50%+4
47%46%46%46%+3
44%42%40%42%+2
35%38%34%35%+1
13%13%13%13%Draw
8%7%5%7%-1
5%6%3.6%4.7%-2
3.7%4%2.7%3.3%-3
3%3%2.0%2.5%-4



Updated probabilities for the bracket

Last 16
Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Final
Champions
Belgium (70%)
Denmark (19%)



Belgium (52%)
Denmark (11%)
Germany (9%)

Germany (23%)
Portugal (14%)
Slovakia (12%)
Sweden (7%)
Wales (6%)







Belgium (36%)
Italy (29%)
Denmark (6%)
Germany (4%)

Italy (81%)
Switzerland (10%)







Italy (59%)
Ukraine (13%)
Austria (10%)



Ukraine (43%)
Austria (41%)
Netherlands (14%)











Belgium (24%)
France (19%)
Italy (16%)
Portugal (12%)

France (54%)
Portugal (37%)









France (41%)
Portugal (27%)
Denmark (8%)





Denmark (20%)
Austria (16%)
Finland (13%)
Ukraine (12%)
Russia (10%)











France (30%)
Portugal (19%)
Spain (9%)
Sweden (7%)



Czechia (45%)
Croatia (36%)
England (15%)









Sweden (24%)
Czechia (19%)
Croatia (18%)
Spain (17%)





Sweden (45%)
Slovakia (25%)
Spain (23%)















Belgium (20%)
France (18%)
Spain (12%)
Portugal (11%)
Italy (9%)
Spain (67%)
Sweden (18%)









Spain (49%)
Sweden (10%)
Denmark (6%)





Austria (19%)
Ukraine (15%)
Denmark (10%)
Czechia (9%)
Croatia (7%)











Spain (27%)
England (21%)
France (15%)
Portugal (13%)



England (82%)
Czechia (14%)









England (37%)
France (22%)
Portugal (22%)
Germany (14%)





Portugal (36%)
France (34%)
Germany (28%)













Spain (17%)
England (14%)
Netherlands (13%)
France (11%)
Portugal (10%)

Netherlands (83%)
Austria (13%)







Netherlands (53%)
Germany (8%)
Portugal (6%)



Slovakia (18%)
Germany (15%)
Czechia (14%)
Croatia (11%)
Sweden (10%)









Netherlands (29%)
Belgium (13%)
Denmark (9%)
Switzerland (8%)

Switzerland (35%)
Wales (30%)
Turkey (22%)





Switzerland (18%)
Belgium (18%)
Denmark (15%)
Wales (14%)
Finland (11%)

Finland (36%)
Denmark (25%)
Belgium (24%)
Russia (15%)


Currently a third team need to have 3 points and goal difference of 4-7 to have more than 50% to advance to round of 16.

 PtsGDProbabilityLast 16Chance
4-29%29%99.13%
308%7%91%
34-52.9%2.4%84%
33-42.8%2.2%80%
34-62.6%1.8%70%
33-52.9%1.9%66%
32-41.7%1.0%61%
34-72.2%1.2%54%
33-63.0%1.5%48%
32-52.3%< 1%43%
33-72.1%< 1%32%
32-61.7%< 1%29%
3-53.7%< 1%22%
3-62.0%< 1%17%
2-15%< 1%6%
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