Euro: Summary after round of 16

With the first round of the knockout stage completed we can summarise the surprises and upsets thus far. Of the eight quarter-finalists the lest expected are Czechia (17%), Ukraina (25%), and Switzerland (30%) where the percentages indicate the probability they'd reach the quarterfinals. Among the favorites beforehand, we notice Nethderlands (60%), France (58%), and Portugal (48%).

In the quarterfinals we have three 70-30 matches and Belgium is small favorite against Italy.

The most likely final is Belgium vs England, but with only seven matches left anything can happen.

Quarter-finals		Semi-finals		Final		Champions
Belgium (100%)
		Belgium (62%) Italy (38%)
Italy (100%)
				Belgium (39%) Spain (31%) Italy (20%)
Switzerland (100%)
		Spain (68%) Switzerland (32%)
Spain (100%)
						England (25%) Belgium (25%) Spain (17%) Denmark (14%)
Ukraine (100%)
		England (69%) Ukraine (31%)
England (100%)
				England (47%) Denmark (34%) Ukraine (12%)
Czechia (100%)
		Denmark (73%) Czechia (27%)
Denmark (100%)