World Cup: European qualifiers

 Denmark, Belgium, England, France and Germany have essentially already clinched a spot in Qatar (>99%).

Most interesting matches Friday and Saturday

Turkey vs Norway in Group G

- Turkey have 38.9% if they win; 17.4% if draw; 3.4% if lose.

- Norway have 34.8% if they win; 18.3% if draw; 3.9% if lose.

Russia vs Slovakia in Group H

- Russia have 41.8% if they win; 26.8% if draw; 15.6% if lose.

- Slovakia have 7.4% if they win; 1.2% if draw; 0.1% if lose.

- Croatia have 90.5% if Slovakia win; 88% if draw; 79.8% if Russia win.

Finland vs Ukraine in Group D

- Ukraine have 17.4% if they win; 9% if draw; 2.8% if lose.

- Finland have 12.2% if they win; 4.2% if draw; 1.1% if lose.

- France have 98.6% if Finland win; 99.8% otherwise.

Cyprus vs Croatia in Group H

- Croatia have 87.6% if they win; 74.9% if draw; 65.8% if lose.

- Russia have 49.1% if Cyprus win; 41.4% if draw; 29.8% if Croatia win.

Germany vs Romania in Group J

- Germany have 99.9% if they win; 98.4% if draw; 91.8% if lose.

- Romania have 17.7% if they win; 5.6% if draw; 3.3% if lose.

 

Group A
Country	MP	Pts	Simulated Pts		2nd	1st	Playoff	Playoff Final	Playoff Winner	Qatar
Portugal	5	13	20.6	(19-22)	10%	90%	10%	9%	6%	96%
Serbia	5	11	16.5	(15-17)	89%	10%	89%	58%	28%	38%
Luxembourg	4	6	8.74	(7-10)	1%	< 1%	1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Ireland	5	2	6.12	(5-8)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Azerbaijan	5	1	3.79	(2-5)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group B
Country	MP	Pts	Simulated Pts		2nd	1st	Playoff	Playoff Final	Playoff Winner	Qatar
Spain	6	13	17.6	(16-19)	25%	74%	26%	23%	17%	90%
Sweden	4	9	16.1	(15-18)	67%	26%	67%	45%	24%	50%
Greece	4	6	10.7	(9-12)	8%	< 1%	8%	3%	< 1%	2%
Kosovo	5	4	6.89	(5-8)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Georgia	5	1	4.16	(2-5)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group C
Country	MP	Pts	Simulated Pts		2nd	1st	Playoff	Playoff Final	Playoff Winner	Qatar
Italy	6	14	18.5	(17-20)	23%	77%	23%	20%	14%	91%
Switzerland	4	8	16.5	(15-17)	74%	23%	74%	55%	33%	56%
Northern Ireland	4	5	9.37	(8-11)	2%	< 1%	2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Bulgaria	5	5	8.26	(7-9)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Lithuania	5	0	2.11	(1-3)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group D
Country	MP	Pts	Simulated Pts		2nd	1st	Playoff	Playoff Final	Playoff Winner	Qatar
France	6	12	17.1	(16-18)	2%	98%	2%	2%	1%	99%
Finland	4	5	10.4	(9-12)	36%	2%	36%	11%	4%	6%
Ukraine	5	5	10.3	(9-12)	45%	< 1%	45%	19%	10%	10%
Bosnia and Herzegovina	4	3	8.13	(6-10)	17%	< 1%	17%	4%	1%	1%
Kazakhstan	5	3	4.51	(3-6)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group E
Country	MP	Pts	Simulated Pts		2nd	1st	Playoff	Playoff Final	Playoff Winner	Qatar
Belgium	6	16	20.8	(20-22)	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
Wales	4	7	14.2	(13-16)	57%	< 1%	100%	56%	30%	30%
Czechia	5	7	13	(11-14)	43%	< 1%	99%	42%	19%	19%
Belarus	5	3	5.72	(4-7)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Estonia	4	1	2.9	(1-4)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group F
Country	MP	Pts	Simulated Pts		2nd	1st	Playoff	Playoff Final	Playoff Winner	Qatar
Denmark	6	18	28.1	(27-30)	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
Scotland	6	11	18.4	(17-20)	66%	< 1%	66%	24%	8%	8%
Israel	6	10	16.7	(16-18)	28%	< 1%	28%	6%	2%	2%
Austria	6	7	15	(14-16)	5%	< 1%	99%	31%	14%	14%
Faroe Islands	6	4	5.29	(4-7)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Moldova	6	1	1.93	(1-2)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group G
Country	MP	Pts	Simulated Pts		2nd	1st	Playoff	Playoff Final	Playoff Winner	Qatar
Netherlands	6	13	23.4	(22-25)	13%	84%	13%	10%	7%	91%
Turkey	6	11	20.3	(19-23)	56%	9%	56%	35%	17%	26%
Norway	6	13	19.5	(19-21)	31%	7%	31%	16%	7%	14%
Montenegro	6	8	12.2	(11-14)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Latvia	6	5	7.28	(6-8)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Gibraltar	6	0	1.67	(0-3)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group H
Country	MP	Pts	Simulated Pts		2nd	1st	Playoff	Playoff Final	Playoff Winner	Qatar
Croatia	6	13	22.4	(21-25)	21%	77%	21%	12%	6%	84%
Russia	6	13	19.8	(18-22)	66%	22%	66%	28%	11%	33%
Slovakia	6	9	14.6	(13-16)	8%	< 1%	8%	3%	< 1%	2%
Slovenia	6	7	13.9	(12-16)	4%	< 1%	5%	1%	< 1%	< 1%
Cyprus	6	4	7.29	(6-8)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Malta	6	4	5.97	(4-7)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group I
Country	MP	Pts	Simulated Pts		2nd	1st	Playoff	Playoff Final	Playoff Winner	Qatar
England	6	16	27	(26-28)	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
Poland	6	11	20.6	(20-23)	83%	< 1%	83%	53%	26%	27%
Hungary	6	10	16.6	(16-18)	9%	< 1%	14%	5%	2%	2%
Albania	6	12	16.5	(15-18)	7%	< 1%	7%	2%	< 1%	< 1%
Andorra	6	3	5	(4-6)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
San Marino	6	0	1.11	(0-3)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group J
Country	MP	Pts	Simulated Pts		2nd	1st	Playoff	Playoff Final	Playoff Winner	Qatar
Germany	6	15	24.7	(24-27)	1%	98%	1%	< 1%	< 1%	99%
Romania	6	10	16.7	(15-19)	51%	< 1%	51%	12%	4%	5%
Armenia	6	11	15.1	(14-17)	22%	< 1%	22%	5%	1%	2%
North Macedonia	6	9	15	(13-16)	24%	< 1%	24%	5%	1%	1%
Iceland	6	4	10.6	(9-12)	1%	< 1%	1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Liechtenstein	6	1	1.85	(1-2)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

The two teams with highest NL rank that miss the 1st and 2nd spot in the group get a 2nd chance via the playoff. The column 'NL spot' shows how often the team qualify to the playoff via this "extra chance".

Nation League Group Winners

NL Rank	Country	Group	NL spot	2nd	1st	Playoff	Playoff Final	Playoff Winner	Qatar
1	France	D	< 1%	2%	98%	2%	2%	1%	99%
2	Belgium	E	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
3	Italy	C	< 1%	23%	77%	23%	20%	14%	91%
4	Spain	B	1%	25%	74%	26%	23%	17%	90%
5	Wales	E	43%	57%	< 1%	100%	56%	30%	30%
6	Austria	F	94%	5%	< 1%	99%	31%	14%	14%
7	Czechia	E	56%	43%	< 1%	99%	42%	19%	19%
8	Hungary	I	4%	9%	< 1%	14%	5%	2%	2%
9	Slovenia	H	< 1%	4%	< 1%	5%	1%	< 1%	< 1%
10	Montenegro	G	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
11	Albania	I	< 1%	7%	< 1%	7%	2%	< 1%	< 1%
12	Armenia	J	< 1%	22%	< 1%	22%	5%	1%	2%

The six best runner-ups will be seeded in the playoff, which means avoid each other and get home advantage in the first round. The first column below show the probability that the team finish 2nd. The columns on the right hand side show the various stats when the team finish 2nd in the simulations such as how often they are seeded, average point, min point, max point and average goal difference.

Runner-ups

2nd	Team	Group	Seeded	Points when 2nd	Min	Max	GD
< 1%	Belgium	E	100%	16.7	16	19	15
10%	Portugal	A	99%	17.8	13	19	10.3
< 1%	Denmark	F	99%	17.1	15	19	14.3
< 1%	England	I	99%	16.7	13	20	12.9
23%	Italy	C	98%	16.5	14	18	10.2
25%	Spain	B	93%	15.8	13	17	8.8
89%	Serbia	A	92%	16.2	11	18	7.1
13%	Netherlands	G	90%	15.2	10	19	12.4
74%	Switzerland	C	89%	15.9	9	18	7.8
83%	Poland	I	84%	15.1	10	17	10.7
67%	Sweden	B	82%	15.6	10	18	5.8
56%	Turkey	G	79%	15.3	9	19	5.1
57%	Wales	E	77%	15.5	9	19	5
31%	Norway	G	69%	14.9	9	17	4.2
43%	Czechia	E	69%	14.6	9	16	6.5
2%	France	D	69%	14.6	12	15	6.7
1%	Luxembourg	A	64%	14.4	11	18	-2.6
21%	Croatia	H	60%	14.5	10	20	6.2
1%	Germany	J	58%	14.1	10	18	11.5
8%	Greece	B	58%	14.1	10	18	4
2%	Northern Ireland	C	53%	13.8	9	17	4.9
7%	Albania	I	50%	14.1	10	18	0.1
8%	Slovakia	H	48%	14.2	10	17	4.2
66%	Scotland	F	46%	13.9	8	17	5.3
66%	Russia	H	39%	13.7	7	20	3.9
9%	Hungary	I	32%	13.7	10	16	1.7
22%	Armenia	J	32%	14.1	9	19	-1.9
< 1%	Bulgaria	C	29%	13.1	9	14	2.5
4%	Slovenia	H	23%	13	8	16	1.8
< 1%	Montenegro	G	21%	13.1	10	16	-0.2
28%	Israel	F	19%	12.8	8	16	2.4
36%	Finland	D	13%	12.5	8	15	1.3
45%	Ukraine	D	13%	12	8	14	3.9
< 1%	Cyprus	H	10%	13	13	13	0.7
51%	Romania	J	9%	12.3	8	16	2
24%	North Macedonia	J	8%	11.8	7	17	1.6
17%	Bosnia and Herzegovina	D	6%	11.7	8	15	2.5
< 1%	Kosovo	B	5%	12.6	10	13	-1.4
5%	Austria	F	3%	11.8	7	13	-0.4
< 1%	Belarus	E	< 1%	11.9	9	12	-4.3
< 1%	Ireland	A	< 1%	11	11	11	2.6
< 1%	Georgia	B	< 1%	10	10	10	-0.7
< 1%	Kazakhstan	D	< 1%	9.5	9	12	-1.9
< 1%	Estonia	E	< 1%	10.9	10	13	-7.1
< 1%	Latvia	G	< 1%	11	11	11	0.5
< 1%	Malta	H	< 1%	11	10	12	-2
1%	Iceland	J	< 1%	9.8	8	12	-5.7