PL: Liverpool trailing 3p behind

City lose points against Palace and Pool are trailing three points in average points (in simulations). Watford win against Southampton and now have a 15% hope to avoid relegation.

Hot Teams
Arsenal: 15 points in the last 5 matches, 5.4 more than expected
Chelsea: 15 points in the last 5 matches, 4.9 more than expected
Newcastle: 10 points in the last 5 matches, 4.8 more than expected

Cold Teams
Brighton: 0 points in the last 5 matches, 5.8 less than expected
Norwich: 0 points in the last 5 matches, 4.1 less than expected
Leeds: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 3.1 less than expected

	Europe	EL (or CL)	CL
Fourth team	100%	100%	99.84%
Fifth team	100%	>99.99%	2.2%
FA cup winners	100%	100%	91%
League cup winners	100%	100%	>99.99%
Sixth team	>99.99%	91%	2.1%
Seventh team	91%	6%	2.1%
Eighth team	9%	3.5%	1.5%

Simulated points for winner: 89 - 92
Simulated points for fourth: 68 - 73
Simulated points for 17th team: 34 - 37

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
70	Man City	89.5	+62	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	100%	70%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
66	Liverpool	86.5	+61	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	>99.99%	30%	< 1%	< 1%	>99.99%
59	Chelsea	79.0	+48	< 1%	>99.99%	>99.99%	99.98%	99.72%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	99.74%
51	Arsenal	70.0	+19	< 1%	99.46%	97.4%	91%	74%	< 1%	2.5%	23%	73%
50	Man United	64.9	+12	< 1%	96.0%	85%	60%	17%	< 1%	12%	64%	20%
45	Tottenham	62.3	+10	< 1%	84%	61%	31%	7%	< 1%	23%	53%	7%
45	West Ham	59.5	+12	< 1%	67%	35%	13%	2.4%	< 1%	29%	30%	8%
46	Wolves	58.4	+6	< 1%	49%	19%	5%	< 1%	< 1%	30%	19%	< 1%
33	Leicester	50.6	-4	< 1%	3.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.3%	22%	< 1%
36	Aston Villa	48.7	-0	< 1%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%
35	Southampton	46.0	-11	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	3.4%	< 1%
34	Crystal Palace	45.3	-1	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	3.5%	< 1%
33	Brighton	44.4	-12	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
31	Newcastle	42.4	-20	2.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
30	Brentford	38.9	-20	12%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
26	Leeds	37.1	-34	28%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
20	Burnley	36.3	-17	32%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
22	Everton	35.6	-24	41%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.6%	< 1%
21	Watford	30.8	-34	85%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
17	Norwich	25.2	-52	99.41%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Coming Matches

Home		Draw		Away
Brighton	40%	24%	36%	Tottenham
Arsenal	33%	24%	43%	Liverpool
Everton	48%	24%	29%	Newcastle
Wolves	58%	21%	21%	Leeds
Aston Villa	34%	24%	42%	Arsenal