PL: Title match on Sunday

Coming week we have a title match between City and Liverpool. If City win, they'll win the league with 83% certainty. If a draw it's 60%-40% and if Liverpool win they have a 67%-33% advantage.

The CL race is starting to look like two-horse race with >90% probability that Arsenal or Tottenham finish top-4. Arsenal are still in pole position with 58% (despite the loss tonight) but Tottenham have been one of the hottest teams the last month and have increased their chances significantly (33%).

Hot Teams
Crystal Palace: 11 points in the last 5 matches, 4.6 more than expected
Liverpool: 15 points in the last 5 matches, 3.8 more than expected
Tottenham: 12 points in the last 5 matches, 3.7 more than expected

Cold Teams
Brighton: 1 point in the last 5 matches, 5.5 less than expected
Burnley: 1 point in the last 5 matches, 4.0 less than expected
Southampton: 4 points in the last 5 matches, 3.8 less than expected

	Europe	EL (or CL)	CL
Fourth team	100%	100%	99.99%
Fifth team	100%	100%	< 1%
FA cup winners	100%	100%	95%
League cup winners	100%	100%	100%
Sixth team	100%	95.1%	2.9%
Seventh team	95.5%	11%	6%
Eighth team	17%	7%	3.6%

Simulated points for winner: 90 - 94
Simulated points for fourth: 68 - 72
Simulated points for 17th team: 35 - 37

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
73	Man City	90.5	+63	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	100%	63%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
72	Liverpool	88.6	+63	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	100%	37%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
59	Chelsea	77.1	+44	< 1%	>99.99%	>99.99%	99.89%	99.10%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	99.21%
54	Arsenal	69.1	+15	< 1%	99.58%	96.8%	86%	58%	< 1%	2.9%	38%	58%
54	Tottenham	66.8	+18	< 1%	99.07%	94%	77%	33%	< 1%	5%	60%	33%
51	Man United	63.4	+10	< 1%	93%	73%	29%	8%	< 1%	20%	65%	8%
48	West Ham	59.6	+11	< 1%	69%	27%	7%	1.2%	< 1%	35%	21%	16%
49	Wolves	57.5	+4	< 1%	33%	8%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%	31%	8%	< 1%
37	Leicester	52.4	-2	< 1%	5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	4.5%	21%	< 1%
37	Crystal Palace	47.7	+3	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	5%	< 1%
36	Aston Villa	46.8	-1	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
36	Southampton	44.8	-13	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
34	Brighton	41.7	-16	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
33	Brentford	41.2	-14	2.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
31	Newcastle	40.6	-24	5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
30	Leeds	38.6	-33	14%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
25	Everton	35.7	-25	40%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
20	Burnley	34.5	-19	50%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
21	Watford	30.6	-34	87%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
18	Norwich	24.9	-52	99.72%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Important matches for title race
Man City vs Liverpool (28.8%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Liverpool	17%	40%	67%
Man City	83%	60%	33%

	Man City			Liverpool
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
97	3.4%	3.4%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-
96	3.4%	< 1%	-	1.8%	1.8%	100%
95	11%	8%	100%	1.8%	< 1%	-
94	19%	7%	96.0%	7%	5%	96.2%
93	26%	8%	95%	13%	6%	79%
92	41%	14%	84%	18%	6%	83%
91	51%	11%	72%	31%	13%	57%
90	63%	11%	62%	41%	10%	46%
89	74%	12%	46%	52%	11%	35%
88	82%	8%	34%	65%	13%	21%
87	88%	7%	24%	74%	9%	14%
86	93%	4.8%	14%	82%	8%	8%
85	96.1%	2.8%	9%	89%	7%	4.1%
84	98.0%	1.9%	5%	93%	4.1%	2.4%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for CL race
Aston Villa vs Tottenham (5.1%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Tottenham	24%	31%	46%
Arsenal	66%	60%	49%
Man United	9%	8%	5%
Arsenal vs Brighton (4.1%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Arsenal	64%	49%	41%
Tottenham	29%	40%	46%
Man United	6%	10%	11%

	Arsenal			Tottenham			West Ham			Man United
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
78	1.1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
77	1.9%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
76	4.4%	2.5%	99.9%	< 1%	< 1%	99.8%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
75	7%	2.9%	99.3%	1.5%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	99%
74	12%	4.3%	99.1%	2.3%	< 1%	97%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
73	19%	7%	96.4%	6%	3.4%	94%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	92%
72	26%	7%	93%	9%	3.8%	86%	< 1%	< 1%	87%	1.1%	< 1%	82%
71	35%	9%	87%	15%	5%	79%	< 1%	< 1%	-	1.7%	< 1%	74%
70	46%	11%	76%	24%	9%	67%	< 1%	< 1%	66%	4.3%	2.6%	56%
69	56%	10%	64%	32%	8%	53%	< 1%	< 1%	51%	7%	3.2%	39%
68	66%	10%	50%	42%	10%	41%	1.2%	< 1%	42%	12%	4.2%	28%
67	75%	9%	34%	54%	12%	27%	3.0%	1.8%	29%	20%	8%	15%
66	83%	7%	22%	64%	10%	16%	5%	2.2%	22%	28%	8%	8%
65	89%	6%	12%	74%	10%	9%	9%	3.3%	18%	37%	10%	3.5%
64	93%	4.4%	5%	82%	9%	3.8%	15%	6%	16%	50%	12%	1.1%
63	95.9%	2.8%	2.1%	88%	6%	1.5%	21%	6%	15%	60%	10%	< 1%
62	97.8%	1.9%	< 1%	93%	4.7%	< 1%	29%	8%	15%	70%	10%	< 1%
61	98.9%	1.1%	< 1%	96.3%	3.2%	< 1%	40%	11%	15%	80%	10%	< 1%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for EL race (EL or CL)
Everton vs Man United (4.8%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Man United	61%	69%	83%
West Ham	43%	39%	32%
Wolves	11%	9%	5%
Brentford vs West Ham (3.3%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
West Ham	28%	33%	46%
Man United	78%	75%	68%
Tottenham	95.5%	95%	92%
Arsenal	97.6%	97.0%	95.6%
Newcastle vs Wolves (2.6%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Wolves	3.8%	6%	15%
Man United	75%	74%	69%

	Man United			Tottenham			Arsenal			West Ham			Leicester			Wolves			Crystal Palace
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
72	1.1%	< 1%	99.9%	9%	3.8%	100%	26%	7%	>99.99%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
71	1.7%	< 1%	99.9%	15%	5%	>99.99%	35%	9%	>99.99%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
70	4.3%	2.6%	99.8%	24%	9%	99.97%	46%	11%	99.97%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	-
69	7%	3.2%	99.4%	32%	8%	99.9%	56%	10%	99.9%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
68	12%	4.2%	99.0%	42%	10%	99.8%	66%	10%	99.7%	1.2%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	97%	< 1%	< 1%	-
67	20%	8%	97.6%	54%	12%	99.4%	75%	9%	99.1%	3.0%	1.8%	96%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	92%	< 1%	< 1%	-
66	28%	8%	95.7%	64%	10%	98.5%	83%	7%	97.9%	5%	2.2%	92%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	86%	< 1%	< 1%	-
65	37%	10%	93%	74%	10%	97.0%	89%	6%	95.3%	9%	3.3%	86%	< 1%	< 1%	87%	1.6%	1.1%	75%	< 1%	< 1%	-
64	50%	12%	87%	82%	9%	94%	93%	4.4%	89%	15%	6%	76%	< 1%	< 1%	70%	3.3%	1.8%	60%	< 1%	< 1%	-
63	60%	10%	79%	88%	6%	88%	95.9%	2.8%	82%	21%	6%	63%	< 1%	< 1%	60%	5%	2.0%	47%	< 1%	< 1%	-
62	70%	10%	69%	93%	4.7%	80%	97.8%	1.9%	69%	29%	8%	52%	1.1%	< 1%	47%	11%	6%	30%	< 1%	< 1%	-
61	80%	10%	56%	96.3%	3.2%	67%	98.9%	1.1%	53%	40%	11%	39%	2.0%	< 1%	35%	18%	7%	18%	< 1%	< 1%	38%
60	87%	7%	43%	98.1%	1.8%	52%	99.52%	< 1%	39%	50%	10%	30%	3.5%	1.5%	27%	25%	7%	11%	< 1%	< 1%	-
59	92%	5%	30%	99.12%	1.1%	39%	99.80%	< 1%	25%	61%	11%	23%	7%	3.0%	24%	38%	13%	5%	< 1%	< 1%	15%
58	95.8%	3.8%	20%	99.67%	< 1%	24%	99.93%	< 1%	16%	71%	11%	19%	10%	3.5%	21%	50%	12%	2.3%	< 1%	< 1%	9%
57	97.8%	2.0%	11%	99.88%	< 1%	14%	99.97%	< 1%	8%	80%	8%	16%	15%	5%	21%	61%	11%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	6%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for Europe race (ECL, EL or CL)
Newcastle vs Wolves (5.3%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Wolves	30%	37%	54%
West Ham	78%	73%	64%
Man United	95.0%	94%	90%
Brentford vs West Ham (4.3%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
West Ham	61%	69%	82%
Wolves	47%	41%	33%

	West Ham			Wolves			Man United			Tottenham			Leicester			Arsenal
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
68	1.2%	< 1%	99.9%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	12%	4.2%	>99.99%	42%	10%	>99.99%	< 1%	< 1%	-	66%	10%	>99.99%
67	3.0%	1.8%	99.9%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	20%	8%	99.96%	54%	12%	>99.99%	< 1%	< 1%	-	75%	9%	99.98%
66	5%	2.2%	99.7%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	28%	8%	99.9%	64%	10%	99.97%	< 1%	< 1%	-	83%	7%	99.94%
65	9%	3.3%	99.4%	1.6%	1.1%	98%	37%	10%	99.7%	74%	10%	99.9%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	89%	6%	99.8%
64	15%	6%	98.4%	3.3%	1.8%	95%	50%	12%	99.3%	82%	9%	99.7%	< 1%	< 1%	96%	93%	4.4%	99.4%
63	21%	6%	97.1%	5%	2.0%	90%	60%	10%	98.4%	88%	6%	99.2%	< 1%	< 1%	91%	95.9%	2.8%	98.6%
62	29%	8%	95%	11%	6%	83%	70%	10%	96.8%	93%	4.7%	98.2%	1.1%	< 1%	84%	97.8%	1.9%	97%
61	40%	11%	90%	18%	7%	73%	80%	10%	93%	96.3%	3.2%	95%	2.0%	< 1%	74%	98.9%	1.1%	92%
60	50%	10%	84%	25%	7%	62%	87%	7%	88%	98.1%	1.8%	90%	3.5%	1.5%	63%	99.52%	< 1%	85%
59	61%	11%	76%	38%	13%	50%	92%	5%	79%	99.12%	1.1%	83%	7%	3.0%	51%	99.80%	< 1%	75%
58	71%	11%	64%	50%	12%	39%	95.8%	3.8%	67%	99.67%	< 1%	71%	10%	3.5%	40%	99.93%	< 1%	63%
57	80%	8%	53%	61%	11%	30%	97.8%	2.0%	53%	99.88%	< 1%	54%	15%	5%	33%	99.97%	< 1%	50%
56	87%	7%	42%	74%	13%	21%	99.02%	1.2%	41%	99.96%	< 1%	40%	22%	7%	28%	>99.99%	< 1%	43%
55	92%	5%	31%	83%	9%	16%	99.65%	< 1%	27%	>99.99%	< 1%	26%	30%	8%	24%	>99.99%	< 1%	-
54	95.4%	3.4%	24%	90%	7%	12%	99.88%	< 1%	17%	100%	< 1%	-	39%	9%	22%	100%	< 1%	-
53	97.7%	2.2%	19%	95.4%	6%	8%	99.97%	< 1%	11%	100%	< 1%	-	49%	10%	21%	100%	< 1%	-

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for avoiding relegation
Burnley vs Everton (13.2%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Everton	47%	63%	81%
Burnley	65%	45%	30%
Watford vs Leeds (7.2%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Leeds	77%	87%	95.3%
Watford	21%	9%	5%
Everton vs Man United (4.7%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Everton	76%	60%	51%
Burnley	44%	51%	54%
Leeds	82%	86%	88%
Norwich vs Burnley (4.6%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Burnley	40%	48%	64%
Everton	65%	61%	55%
Leeds	88%	86%	82%

	Watford			Burnley			Everton			Leeds			Newcastle			Brentford			Brighton
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
39	1.5%	< 1%	98%	18%	5%	98.7%	23%	7%	98.5%	49%	10%	98.6%	71%	10%	99.3%	78%	9%	99.6%	82%	9%	99.6%
38	2.7%	1.2%	94%	24%	6%	96.0%	32%	9%	95%	60%	11%	95.8%	81%	10%	97.4%	86%	8%	98.4%	90%	8%	98.4%
37	5%	2.6%	82%	32%	8%	89%	41%	9%	88%	72%	12%	90%	88%	7%	93%	93%	7%	94%	95%	4.7%	95%
36	9%	3.3%	64%	41%	9%	76%	51%	10%	75%	81%	9%	79%	93%	5%	83%	96.4%	3.6%	86%	97.6%	2.7%	87%
35	13%	4.8%	45%	50%	9%	60%	62%	11%	58%	88%	7%	64%	96.5%	3.8%	69%	98.4%	2.0%	73%	99.47%	1.8%	75%
34	21%	7%	25%	59%	9%	41%	71%	9%	41%	94%	6%	46%	98.4%	1.9%	51%	99.67%	1.2%	51%	100%	< 1%	56%
33	29%	8%	12%	68%	9%	24%	80%	9%	24%	96.9%	3.2%	30%	99.36%	< 1%	33%	100%	< 1%	31%	100%	< 1%	-
32	38%	10%	4.9%	76%	8%	13%	87%	7%	13%	98.7%	1.8%	16%	99.88%	< 1%	17%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-
31	50%	12%	1.4%	83%	7%	5%	92%	5%	6%	99.73%	1.0%	6%	100%	< 1%	7%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-
30	60%	10%	< 1%	88%	5%	1.6%	95.5%	3.7%	2.1%	100%	< 1%	2%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-
29	71%	10%	< 1%	93%	4.2%	< 1%	97.9%	2.4%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-
28	80%	10%	< 1%	95.6%	3.0%	< 1%	99.06%	1.2%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-
27	87%	7%	< 1%	97.6%	2.0%	< 1%	99.67%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-
26	92%	5%	< 1%	98.7%	1.2%	< 1%	99.94%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-
25	96.4%	3.9%	< 1%	99.42%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-
24	98.3%	1.9%	< 1%	99.76%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points



Coming Matches

Home		Draw		Away
Burnley	49%	23%	28%	Everton
Newcastle	44%	24%	32%	Wolves
Everton	30%	24%	46%	Man United
Arsenal	69%	18%	13%	Brighton
Southampton	24%	22%	54%	Chelsea
Watford	41%	24%	34%	Leeds
Aston Villa	41%	24%	35%	Tottenham
Leicester	53%	23%	24%	Crystal Palace
Norwich	39%	24%	37%	Burnley
Brentford	32%	24%	44%	West Ham
Man City	48%	24%	28%	Liverpool