PL: Liverpool with 17% on the league title

Liverpool with 17% on title after win against Southampton.

Evcerton can clinch new contract on Thursday with a win against Crystal Palace. If they draw, they have 89% chance and a loss means 85%. Burnley have 95.5% if they win against Aston Villa, 80% if they draw and only 50% if they lose. 

Hot Teams
Brentford: 10 points in the last 5 matches, 3.6 more than expected
Tottenham: 11 points in the last 5 matches, 3.5 more than expected
Newcastle: 9 points in the last 5 matches, 3.3 more than expected

Cold Teams
Leeds: 1 point in the last 5 matches, 4.4 less than expected
Wolves: 2 points in the last 5 matches, 4.4 less than expected
Southampton: 1 point in the last 5 matches, 4.2 less than expected

Simulated points for winner: 93 - 93
Simulated points for fourth: 69 - 71
Simulated points for 17th team: 36 - 38

Average Simulated Season

Probabilities

Pts

Team

Pts

GD

Relegated

Top 7

Top 6

Top 5

Top 4

Win League

ECL

EL

CL

90

Man City

92.5

+74

< 1%

100%

100%

100%

100%

83%

< 1%

< 1%

100%

89

Liverpool

91.5

+64

< 1%

100%

100%

100%

100%

17%

< 1%

< 1%

100%

70

Chelsea

74.6

+44

< 1%

100%

100%

100%

100%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

100%

68

Tottenham

69.8

+25

< 1%

100%

100%

100%

84%

< 1%

< 1%

16%

84%

66

Arsenal

68.2

+11

< 1%

100%

100%

100%

16%

< 1%

< 1%

84%

16%

58

Man United

59.3

+2

< 1%

100%

78%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

22%

78%

< 1%

56

West Ham

57.3

+11

< 1%

100%

22%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

78%

22%

< 1%

51

Wolves

51.4

-4

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

48

Leicester

50.7

-0

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

48

Brighton

49.5

-5

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

46

Brentford

47.7

-7

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

45

Crystal Palace

47.7

+4

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

46

Newcastle

47.2

-19

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

44

Aston Villa

46.2

-2

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

40

Southampton

40.8

-21

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

36

Everton

38.1

-21

7%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

34

Burnley

36.6

-18

32%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

35

Leeds

36.0

-36

61%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

23

Watford

23.3

-44

100%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

22

Norwich

22.9

-57

100%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

Important matches for title race
Man City vs Aston Villa (100.2%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Man City	100%	20%	20%
Liverpool	< 1%	80%	80%
Liverpool vs Wolves (12.3%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Liverpool	21%	< 1%	< 1%
Man City	79%	100%	100%

	Man City			Liverpool
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
93	79%	79%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-
92	79%	< 1%	-	80%	80%	21%
91	92%	13%	20%	80%	< 1%	-

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for avoiding relegation
Brentford vs Leeds (51.8%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Leeds	16%	36%	85%
Everton	100%	100%	72%
Burnley	84%	64%	43%
Burnley vs Newcastle (39.6%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Burnley	92%	69%	32%
Leeds	20%	35%	71%
Everton	88%	95.6%	97.0%
Aston Villa vs Burnley (24.3%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Burnley	50%	80%	95.5%
Leeds	55%	27%	17%
Everton vs Crystal Palace (7%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Everton	100%	89%	85%
Burnley	64%	70%	72%
Arsenal vs Everton (2.1%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Everton	90%	95%	100%
Burnley	69%	67%	64%

	Leeds			Burnley			Everton
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
38	27%	27%	85%	27%	16%	100%	55%	4.4%	100%
37	27%	< 1%	-	59%	32%	85%	77%	22%	84%
36	50%	23%	36%	64%	5%	79%	100%	23%	83%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points



Coming Matches

Home		Draw		Away
Everton	42%	24%	34%	Crystal Palace
Aston Villa	53%	23%	25%	Burnley
Chelsea	64%	19%	17%	Leicester
Crystal Palace	40%	24%	36%	Man United
Arsenal	68%	18%	14%	Everton
Chelsea	80%	13%	7%	Watford
Leicester	59%	21%	20%	Southampton
Brentford	50%	23%	27%	Leeds
Burnley	45%	24%	31%	Newcastle
Brighton	41%	24%	34%	West Ham
Liverpool	80%	13%	8%	Wolves
Man City	79%	13%	8%	Aston Villa
Norwich	24%	23%	53%	Tottenham