PL: Game week 5

 

Hot Teams
Arsenal: 15 points in the last 5 matches, 5.2 more than expected
Fulham: 8 points in the last 5 matches, 3.2 more than expected
Brighton: 10 points in the last 5 matches, 2.7 more than expected

Cold Teams
Leicester: 1 point in the last 4 matches, 4.2 less than expected
Aston Villa: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 3.4 less than expected
Wolves: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 3.3 less than expected

	Europe	EL (or CL)	CL
Fourth team	100%	100%	99.65%
Fifth team	>99.99%	99.96%	6%
FA cup winners	99.97%	99.97%	51%
League cup winners	>99.99%	78%	70%
Sixth team	93%	65%	3.3%
Seventh team	60%	12%	2.1%
Eighth team	14%	6%	1.4%

Simulated points for winner: 82 - 89
Simulated points for fourth: 65 - 70
Simulated points for 17th team: 37 - 41

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
13	Man City	83.5	+56	< 1%	99.99%	99.96%	99.85%	99.32%	69%	< 1%	< 1%	99.48%
8	Liverpool	76.8	+48	< 1%	99.78%	99.41%	98.3%	95%	22%	< 1%	3.4%	95.9%
15	Arsenal	70.3	+26	< 1%	97.2%	94%	88%	75%	5%	2.9%	15%	78%
11	Tottenham	67.6	+24	< 1%	94%	89%	80%	62%	2.6%	5%	24%	64%
7	Chelsea	64.2	+17	< 1%	87%	79%	64%	40%	< 1%	8%	33%	44%
10	Brighton	56.8	+4	< 1%	54%	38%	22%	10%	< 1%	14%	26%	10%
6	Man United	56.1	+1	< 1%	49%	34%	19%	9%	< 1%	13%	23%	14%
6	Newcastle	52.7	+2	2.1%	32%	20%	10%	3.9%	< 1%	11%	16%	3.8%
5	Crystal Palace	50.6	-2	4.1%	22%	13%	6%	2.1%	< 1%	8%	11%	2.1%
8	Leeds	48.9	-6	6%	15%	8%	3.5%	1.2%	< 1%	6%	8%	1.2%
4	West Ham	48.4	-7	7%	14%	7%	3.1%	< 1%	< 1%	6%	20%	< 1%
1	Leicester	46.9	-6	11%	11%	6%	2.2%	< 1%	< 1%	7%	7%	< 1%
6	Brentford	46.9	-6	10%	10%	5%	2.0%	< 1%	< 1%	6%	6%	< 1%
3	Aston Villa	43.8	-14	20%	4.5%	2.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.5%	3.7%	< 1%
7	Southampton	43.5	-18	22%	3.7%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.7%	2.6%	< 1%
8	Fulham	42.4	-19	26%	2.7%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.1%	1.9%	< 1%
3	Wolves	42.2	-13	26%	2.9%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.4%	2.8%	< 1%
3	Everton	39.8	-18	39%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.2%	1.9%	< 1%
4	Bournemouth	36.7	-37	60%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
4	Forest	35.6	-34	66%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Titles

Team	One Title	Two titles	Three titles	Four titles	Double	Treble	Quadruple
Man City	86%	43%	10%	< 1%	13%	3.0%	< 1%
Liverpool	65%	23%	3.9%	< 1%	3.8%	< 1%	< 1%
Arsenal	32%	4.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Tottenham	22%	1.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Chelsea	17%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Brighton	5%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
Man United	14%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Newcastle	6%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
Crystal Palace	4.4%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
Leeds	3.3%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
West Ham	18%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Leicester	6%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
Brentford	4.5%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
Aston Villa	2.9%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
Southampton	2.6%	< 1%
Fulham	1.1%	< 1%			< 1%
Wolves	3.1%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
Everton	2.1%	< 1%
Bournemouth	1.3%	< 1%
Forest	< 1%	< 1%

Coming Matches

Home		Draw		Away
Leicester	45%	24%	31%	Man United
Everton	17%	20%	63%	Liverpool
Chelsea	63%	20%	17%	West Ham
Newcastle	50%	23%	27%	Crystal Palace
Forest	47%	24%	29%	Bournemouth
Tottenham	72%	16%	11%	Fulham
Wolves	53%	23%	25%	Southampton
Brentford	49%	23%	28%	Leeds
Aston Villa	19%	21%	60%	Man City
Brighton	52%	23%	25%	Leicester
Man United	40%	24%	36%	Arsenal