PL: Liverpool coldest team in the league

 

Hot Teams
Newcastle: 13 points in the last 5 matches, 5.6 more than expected
Arsenal: 13 points in the last 5 matches, 4.4 more than expected
Man United: 11 points in the last 5 matches, 3.7 more than expected
Crystal Palace: 10 points in the last 5 matches, 2.0 more than expected
Man City: 12 points in the last 5 matches, 1.6 more than expected

Cold Teams
Liverpool: 6 points in the last 5 matches, 4.2 less than expected
Brighton: 4 points in the last 5 matches, 2.7 less than expected
Leeds: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 2.5 less than expected
Aston Villa: 4 points in the last 5 matches, 2.5 less than expected
Wolves: 4 points in the last 5 matches, 2.1 less than expected

	Europe	EL (or CL)	CL
Fourth team	100%	100%	99.58%
Fifth team	>99.99%	99.97%	7%
FA cup winners	99.97%	99.97%	49%
League cup winners	>99.99%	77%	65%
Sixth team	93%	66%	4.6%
Seventh team	62%	14%	2.4%
Eighth team	16%	6%	1.1%

Simulated points for winner: 82 - 89
Simulated points for fourth: 67 - 71
Simulated points for 17th team: 37 - 40

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
29	Man City	85.0	+60	< 1%	>99.99%	99.99%	99.94%	99.71%	84%	< 1%	< 1%	99.79%
31	Arsenal	74.9	+33	< 1%	99.59%	98.6%	95.8%	89%	11%	1.1%	7%	91%
16	Liverpool	70.1	+39	< 1%	98.2%	95%	87%	73%	2.6%	3.6%	17%	78%
26	Tottenham	68.3	+23	< 1%	96.1%	90%	78%	59%	1.7%	6%	26%	62%
21	Chelsea	66.0	+17	< 1%	92%	82%	64%	42%	< 1%	10%	34%	45%
23	Man United	62.7	+7	< 1%	80%	63%	40%	22%	< 1%	15%	34%	25%
24	Newcastle	58.1	+13	< 1%	57%	35%	18%	8%	< 1%	18%	25%	8%
18	Brighton	55.9	+7	< 1%	41%	23%	11%	4.4%	< 1%	15%	19%	4.4%
16	Crystal Palace	51.3	-4	1.7%	16%	7%	2.9%	< 1%	< 1%	8%	8%	< 1%
14	West Ham	47.8	-4	4.7%	7%	2.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	4.9%	20%	< 1%
15	Brentford	45.1	-11	10%	2.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	3.5%	3.0%	< 1%
12	Leeds	44.6	-10	12%	2.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.3%	3.1%	< 1%
11	Leicester	44.5	-6	12%	2.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	4.5%	3.7%	< 1%
19	Fulham	43.9	-18	14%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.5%	< 1%
12	Aston Villa	42.6	-16	19%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.3%	2.5%	< 1%
14	Everton	42.2	-13	20%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.2%	1.7%	< 1%
12	Southampton	40.1	-20	33%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.5%	1.5%	< 1%
10	Wolves	39.7	-22	36%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.4%	2.0%	< 1%
13	Bournemouth	36.9	-35	57%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
9	Forest	32.8	-39	80%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Titles

Team	One Title	Two titles	Three titles	Four titles	Double	Triple	Quadruple
Man City	93%	48%	12%	1.0%	16%	3.9%	1.0%
Arsenal	36%	6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Liverpool	55%	13%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Tottenham	23%	2.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Chelsea	16%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Man United	12%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Newcastle	6%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
Brighton	5%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
Crystal Palace	4.4%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
West Ham	20%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Brentford	4.5%	< 1%
Leeds	3.3%	< 1%
Leicester	6%	< 1%
Fulham	1.1%
Aston Villa	2.9%	< 1%
Everton	2.1%	< 1%
Southampton	2.6%	< 1%
Wolves	3.1%	< 1%
Bournemouth	1.3%	< 1%
Forest	< 1%	< 1%

Coming Matches

Home		Draw		Away
Leeds	60%	21%	19%	Bournemouth
Forest	37%	24%	39%	Brentford
Wolves	41%	24%	35%	Brighton
Man City	84%	11%	6%	Fulham
Everton	41%	24%	35%	Leicester
Chelsea	50%	23%	27%	Arsenal
Aston Villa	41%	24%	35%	Man United
West Ham	49%	23%	28%	Crystal Palace
Southampton	39%	24%	37%	Newcastle
Tottenham	35%	24%	41%	Liverpool