Updated bracket probabilities

Most important matches (affecting final winners)

Belgium vs Croatia	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Belgium	7%	< 1%	< 1%
Croatia	< 1%	2.6%	3.1%

mutual information: 43.5 mBit

Serbia vs Switzerland	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Switzerland	< 1%	2.8%	2.9%
Serbia	1.9%	< 1%	< 1%

mutual information: 21.5 mBit

Costa Rica vs Germany	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Germany	< 1%	< 1%	3.8%

mutual information: 18.8 mBit

Spain vs Japan	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Germany	3.0%	2.5%	< 1%
Brazil	24%	25%	29%

mutual information: 8.8 mBit

Ghana vs Uruguay	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Uruguay	< 1%	< 1%	1.5%
Brazil	29%	30%	24%

mutual information: 6.6 mBit

Last 16		Quarter-finals		Semi-finals		Final		Champions
Netherlands (100%)
		Netherlands (77%) United States (23%)
United States (100%)
				Argentina (60%) Netherlands (33%)
Argentina (100%)
		Argentina (89%)
Australia (100%)
						Brazil (34%) Argentina (33%) Netherlands (14%)
Spain (81%) Japan (16%)
		Spain (58%) Morocco (13%) Croatia (11%)
Morocco (55%) Croatia (26%) Belgium (19%)
				Brazil (58%) Spain (24%) Uruguay (8%)
Brazil (99%)
		Brazil (81%) Uruguay (17%)
Uruguay (71%) Ghana (20%)
								Brazil (25%) Argentina (23%) France (10%) Netherlands (8%)
England (100%)
		England (76%) Senegal (24%)
Senegal (100%)
				France (48%) England (35%) Poland (12%)
France (100%)
		France (72%) Poland (28%)
Poland (100%)
						France (26%) Portugal (20%) England (15%) Germany (7%)
Croatia (41%) Belgium (32%) Morocco (28%)
		Germany (29%) Croatia (21%) Belgium (20%) Spain (11%)
Germany (51%) Costa Rica (27%) Spain (16%)
				Portugal (35%) Germany (14%) Switzerland (13%) Belgium (11%)
Portugal (99%)
		Portugal (60%) Switzerland (27%)
Switzerland (65%) Serbia (33%)