PL: Arsenal in the lead with 2.4 more expected points than Man City.

Arsenal in the lead with a 2.4-point cushion in expected points.

Hot Teams
Brentford: 13 points in the last 5 matches, 7.3 more than expected
Fulham: 12 points in the last 5 matches, 6.7 more than expected
Man United: 15 points in the last 5 matches, 6.1 more than expected
Forest: 10 points in the last 5 matches, 5.1 more than expected
Arsenal: 13 points in the last 5 matches, 4.3 more than expected

Cold Teams
West Ham: 1 point in the last 5 matches, 5.3 less than expected
Everton: 1 point in the last 5 matches, 5.3 less than expected
Crystal Palace: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 3.6 less than expected
Leicester: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 3.5 less than expected
Man City: 7 points in the last 5 matches, 3.3 less than expected

	Europe	EL (or CL)	CL
Fourth team	100%	100%	99.69%
Fifth team	>99.99%	99.99%	6%
FA cup winners	100%	100%	68%
League cup winners	100%	79%	52%
Sixth team	97.0%	83%	4.5%
Seventh team	77%	15%	3.3%
Eighth team	17%	4.5%	2.2%

Simulated points for winner: 83 - 89
Simulated points for fourth: 68 - 72
Simulated points for 17th team: 35 - 38

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
47	Arsenal	84.0	+44	< 1%	>99.99%	99.99%	99.91%	99.55%	58%	< 1%	< 1%	99.64%
39	Man City	81.6	+54	< 1%	>99.99%	99.95%	99.74%	98.9%	39%	< 1%	< 1%	99.19%
38	Man United	71.3	+17	< 1%	97.7%	93%	84%	67%	1.5%	5%	24%	69%
28	Liverpool	69.3	+32	< 1%	96.9%	91%	79%	58%	< 1%	4.2%	29%	64%
38	Newcastle	68.2	+28	< 1%	95%	87%	71%	47%	< 1%	11%	38%	47%
33	Tottenham	64.1	+19	< 1%	82%	63%	38%	19%	< 1%	15%	43%	22%
30	Brighton	59.8	+13	< 1%	54%	30%	14%	6%	< 1%	20%	26%	6%
28	Chelsea	59.8	+10	< 1%	52%	28%	13%	4.9%	< 1%	20%	21%	10%
29	Brentford	53.4	+0	< 1%	12%	4.5%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%	7%	4.1%	< 1%
31	Fulham	51.3	-6	< 1%	6%	1.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	3.7%	2.3%	< 1%
25	Aston Villa	48.3	-10	< 1%	2.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%
22	Crystal Palace	47.1	-13	1.9%	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%
17	Leicester	42.4	-9	9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	3.6%	< 1%
17	Leeds	40.2	-16	18%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
15	West Ham	39.0	-14	23%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	18%	< 1%
17	Wolves	37.1	-26	37%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
20	Forest	37.1	-35	40%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	4.7%	< 1%	< 1%
16	Bournemouth	34.8	-37	57%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
15	Everton	34.7	-23	55%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
15	Southampton	34.4	-29	58%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	7%	1.7%	< 1%

Titles

Team	One Title	Two titles	Three titles	Four titles	Double	Triple	Quadruple
Arsenal	69%	16%	1.0%		5%
Man City	72%	27%	3.8%		15%	3.8%
Man United	55%	8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Liverpool	32%	3.1%	< 1%		< 1%	< 1%
Newcastle	43%	< 1%
Tottenham	12%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%	< 1%
Brighton	3.3%	< 1%			< 1%
Chelsea	5%	< 1%
Fulham	< 1%	< 1%			< 1%
Leicester	3.6%
Leeds	< 1%
West Ham	18%	< 1%
Wolves	< 1%
Forest	4.7%
Southampton	8%	< 1%

Important matches for title race
Man City vs Tottenham (2%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Man City	43%	33%	28%
Arsenal	54%	63%	68%

	Arsenal			Man City			Man United
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
96	1.5%	< 1%	99.9%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	-
95	2.4%	< 1%	99.9%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	-
94	3.8%	1.4%	99.7%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	-
93	6%	1.9%	99.4%	1.3%	< 1%	98%	< 1%	< 1%	-
92	8%	2.6%	98.5%	2.5%	1.1%	97%	< 1%	< 1%	-
91	12%	3.4%	97.2%	4.0%	1.5%	94%	< 1%	< 1%	-
90	16%	4.1%	95%	6%	2.2%	92%	< 1%	< 1%	81%
89	21%	4.9%	92%	9%	3.0%	88%	< 1%	< 1%	79%
88	26%	6%	89%	13%	3.8%	83%	< 1%	< 1%	65%
87	33%	6%	84%	18%	4.7%	77%	< 1%	< 1%	60%
86	40%	7%	77%	23%	6%	70%	< 1%	< 1%	50%
85	47%	7%	70%	30%	6%	62%	< 1%	< 1%	39%
84	54%	7%	63%	37%	7%	54%	1.3%	< 1%	31%
83	61%	7%	54%	44%	7%	46%	2.1%	< 1%	23%
82	68%	7%	45%	52%	7%	37%	3.2%	1.1%	16%
81	74%	6%	36%	59%	7%	30%	4.8%	1.6%	10%
80	79%	5%	28%	66%	7%	22%	7%	2.2%	7%
79	84%	4.7%	21%	72%	6%	16%	10%	2.8%	4%
78	88%	3.9%	14%	78%	6%	11%	13%	3.5%	2.0%
77	91%	3.2%	10%	83%	4.9%	7%	18%	4.3%	< 1%
76	94%	2.5%	6%	87%	4.2%	5%	23%	5%	< 1%
75	95.7%	1.9%	4%	91%	3.4%	2.4%	28%	6%	< 1%
74	97.1%	1.4%	2%	93%	2.7%	1.3%	35%	6%	< 1%
73	98.1%	1.0%	< 1%	95.3%	2.0%	< 1%	42%	7%	< 1%
72	98.8%	< 1%	< 1%	96.8%	1.5%	< 1%	49%	7%	< 1%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points




Coming Matches

Home		Draw		Away
Crystal Palace	37%	24%	39%	Man United
Man City	66%	19%	15%	Tottenham