Tuesday, January 24, 2023

PL: Forest vs Leeds in import relegation game

 Hot Teams
Brentford: 11 points in the last 5 matches, 4.5 more than expected
Arsenal: 13 points in the last 5 matches, 4.2 more than expected
Brighton: 10 points in the last 5 matches, 3.6 more than expected
Aston Villa: 10 points in the last 5 matches, 3.5 more than expected
Forest: 8 points in the last 5 matches, 3.5 more than expected

Cold Teams
Leicester: 1 point in the last 5 matches, 6.0 less than expected
Everton: 1 point in the last 5 matches, 5.0 less than expected
Bournemouth: 1 point in the last 5 matches, 4.0 less than expected
Southampton: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 3.5 less than expected
Liverpool: 7 points in the last 5 matches, 3.0 less than expected



Average Simulated
Season		Probabilities
PtsTeamPtsGDRelegatedTop 7Top 6Top 5Top 4Win LeagueECLELCL
50Arsenal85.1+45< 1%>99.99%>99.99%99.97%99.85%58%< 1%< 1%99.88%
45Man City82.8+56< 1%>99.99%99.98%99.92%99.64%41%< 1%< 1%99.72%
39Man United70.0+17< 1%97.0%91%80%62%< 1%6%26%65%
29Liverpool68.2+31< 1%95.9%89%75%53%< 1%4.9%31%60%
39Newcastle67.8+28< 1%95%86%70%48%< 1%11%36%48%
36Tottenham64.9+19< 1%86%69%45%25%< 1%14%43%28%
29Chelsea60.1+11< 1%55%30%14%6%< 1%20%22%11%
31Brighton59.7+14< 1%53%29%14%6%< 1%20%25%6%
30Brentford53.2+1< 1%11%3.8%1.3%< 1%< 1%6%3.5%< 1%
31Fulham50.2-7< 1%3.3%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%2.4%1.5%< 1%
28Aston Villa50.0-9< 1%3.5%1.0%< 1%< 1%< 1%2.4%1.0%< 1%
24Crystal Palace46.4-131.6%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
18Leicester41.8-99%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%3.3%< 1%
18West Ham40.1-1314%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%18%< 1%
18Leeds39.6-1618%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%1.4%< 1%
21Forest37.1-3536%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%4.7%< 1%< 1%
17Wolves36.8-2736%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
17Bournemouth34.0-3761%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
15Everton33.8-2458%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
15Southampton33.0-3066%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%7%1.7%< 1%


Titles
TeamOne TitleTwo titlesThree titlesFour titlesDoubleTripleQuadruple
Arsenal69%16%< 1%
5%

Man City72%27%3.8%
16%3.8%
Man United54%8%< 1%< 1%< 1%

Liverpool34%3.4%< 1%
< 1%< 1%
Newcastle43%< 1%




Tottenham12%< 1%< 1%
< 1%< 1%
Chelsea5%< 1%




Brighton3.0%< 1%

< 1%

Fulham< 1%





Leicester3.3%





West Ham18%< 1%




Leeds1.4%





Forest4.7%





Southampton8%< 1%




Important matches for title race
Tottenham vs Man City (2.7%)Home WinDrawAway Win
Man City33%38%48%
Arsenal66%61%51%
Everton vs Arsenal (2.6%)Home WinDrawAway Win
Arsenal49%54%64%
Man City50%45%35%



ArsenalMan City
pointsQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChance
971.3%< 1%99.9%< 1%< 1%100%
962.2%< 1%99.9%< 1%< 1%99%
953.5%1.3%99.8%< 1%< 1%99%
945%1.9%99.5%1.3%< 1%98%
938%2.5%98.8%2.2%< 1%97%
9211%3.3%97.6%3.8%1.6%95%
9115%4.2%96%6%2.2%93%
9020%5.0%93%9%2.9%89%
8926%6%89%13%4.1%84%
8833%7%84%18%4.9%78%
8740%7%78%24%6%71%
8647%7%70%31%7%62%
8555%7%61%38%7%54%
8462%7%53%46%8%46%
8369%7%44%54%8%38%
8275%6%36%61%8%30%
8180%5%28%68%7%23%
8085%4.7%21%75%6%17%
7989%3.8%15%80%6%12%
7892%3.1%10%85%4.8%8%
7794%2.4%6%89%3.9%5%
7696.3%1.8%4%92%3.1%3.1%
7597.5%1.3%2%95%2.4%1.5%
7498.4%< 1%1%96.3%1.8%< 1%
Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points



Important matches for CL race
Newcastle vs West Ham (2%)Home WinDrawAway Win
Newcastle54%42%36%
Man United63%67%68%
Liverpool59%62%64%



Man UnitedLiverpoolNewcastleTottenhamChelseaBrighton
pointsQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChance
795%1.8%100%1.8%< 1%100%2.4%< 1%99.9%< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%100%
788%2.5%99.9%3.1%1.3%99.9%3.6%1.3%99.9%< 1%< 1%99.9%< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%100%
7711%3.3%99.8%4.9%1.8%99.9%5%1.8%99.9%1.1%< 1%99.7%< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%99%
7615%4.0%99.6%8%2.7%99.7%8%2.4%99.5%1.9%< 1%99%< 1%< 1%99%< 1%< 1%99%
7520%5.0%99.0%11%3.4%99.1%11%3.1%98.8%3.0%1.1%98%< 1%< 1%98%< 1%< 1%98%
7426%6%97.7%15%4.4%98.1%15%3.9%97.3%4.7%1.7%95%< 1%< 1%96%< 1%< 1%95%
7332%6%95.3%21%5%96.1%19%4.6%95%7%2.3%92%< 1%< 1%92%< 1%< 1%91%
7239%7%91%27%6%93%25%5%90%10%3.1%85%1.3%< 1%86%1.5%< 1%83%
7147%7%85%34%7%88%31%6%83%14%3.9%76%2.1%< 1%75%2.4%< 1%72%
7054%7%75%41%7%80%38%7%74%19%4.8%65%3.4%1.3%63%3.7%1.2%59%
6962%7%65%49%8%71%45%7%62%24%6%53%5%1.8%49%5%1.7%46%
6869%7%52%56%8%60%52%7%49%31%6%40%8%2.4%37%8%2.3%33%
6775%6%39%64%7%48%59%7%36%38%7%28%11%3.3%25%11%3.0%21%
6680%6%28%71%7%38%66%7%24%45%7%19%15%4.1%17%14%3.8%12%
6585%4.7%20%77%6%29%73%6%14%53%8%12%20%5.0%11%19%4.6%6%
6489%3.9%14%82%5%23%79%6%8%60%7%8%26%6%8%24%5%2.8%
6392%3.1%11%87%4.4%19%83%5.0%3.6%68%7%6%32%7%6%30%6%1.0%
6295%2.4%9%90%3.6%17%88%4.2%1.5%74%6%4.8%39%7%6%37%7%< 1%
6196.3%1.8%9%93%2.9%15%91%3.4%< 1%80%6%4.3%47%7%5%44%7%< 1%
6097.6%1.3%9%95.1%2.2%15%94%2.7%< 1%85%4.9%4.4%54%8%5%51%7%< 1%
5998.5%< 1%8%96.7%1.6%15%95.7%2.0%< 1%89%4.0%3.8%62%7%5%58%7%< 1%
5899.05%< 1%9%97.9%1.1%15%97.1%1.5%< 1%92%3.2%4%69%7%5%65%7%< 1%
5799.44%< 1%8%98.6%< 1%15%98.2%1.0%< 1%94%2.5%4%75%6%5%72%6%< 1%
Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points



Important matches for Europe race (ECL, EL or CL)
Chelsea vs Fulham (2.1%)Home WinDrawAway Win
Chelsea57%46%39%
Fulham2.8%4.5%9%



BrightonChelseaTottenhamNewcastleSouthamptonMan UnitedBrentfordLiverpoolForestFulhamAston Villa
pointsQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChance
6519%4.6%91%20%5.0%90%53%8%95.3%73%6%97.5%< 1%< 1%-85%4.7%97.0%1.6%< 1%86%77%6%97.6%< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%85%< 1%< 1%87%
6424%5%86%26%6%85%60%7%92%79%6%95.8%< 1%< 1%-89%3.9%95%2.5%< 1%79%82%5%95.9%< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%77%< 1%< 1%80%
6330%6%80%32%7%78%68%7%88%83%5.0%93%< 1%< 1%-92%3.1%92%3.9%1.3%69%87%4.4%93%< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%67%< 1%< 1%69%
6237%7%72%39%7%70%74%6%82%88%4.2%90%< 1%< 1%-95%2.4%88%6%1.8%58%90%3.6%90%< 1%< 1%-1.4%< 1%55%1.5%< 1%57%
6144%7%63%47%7%62%80%6%76%91%3.4%85%< 1%< 1%-96.3%1.8%83%8%2.5%47%93%2.9%84%< 1%< 1%-2.2%< 1%45%2.4%< 1%45%
6051%7%54%54%8%52%85%4.9%67%94%2.7%80%< 1%< 1%-97.6%1.3%78%11%3.2%36%95.1%2.2%78%< 1%< 1%-3.5%1.2%33%3.7%1.3%33%
5958%7%44%62%7%43%89%4.0%57%95.7%2.0%73%< 1%< 1%-98.5%< 1%74%15%4.1%26%96.7%1.6%71%< 1%< 1%-5%1.7%24%5%1.8%23%
5865%7%35%69%7%34%92%3.2%48%97.1%1.5%66%< 1%< 1%-99.05%< 1%68%20%4.9%18%97.9%1.1%64%< 1%< 1%-8%2.4%16%8%2.4%15%
5772%6%27%75%6%26%94%2.5%38%98.2%1.0%61%< 1%< 1%-99.44%< 1%63%26%6%12%98.6%< 1%55%< 1%< 1%-11%3.2%10%11%3.1%10%
5678%6%20%81%6%20%96.3%1.8%31%98.9%< 1%55%< 1%< 1%-99.69%< 1%62%33%6%7%99.16%< 1%49%< 1%< 1%16%15%3.9%6%15%3.9%6%
5583%5%14%85%4.7%15%97.6%1.3%24%99.34%< 1%51%< 1%< 1%-99.83%< 1%59%40%7%4.3%99.49%< 1%44%< 1%< 1%9%20%4.9%3.6%19%4.7%2.9%
5487%4.3%10%89%3.9%11%98.5%< 1%19%99.62%< 1%49%< 1%< 1%-99.91%< 1%53%47%7%2.3%99.70%< 1%39%< 1%< 1%9%25%6%2.2%25%6%1.4%
5390%3.5%7%92%3.1%8%99.12%< 1%15%99.80%< 1%47%< 1%< 1%-99.95%< 1%57%55%8%1.2%99.83%< 1%38%< 1%< 1%4%32%7%1.2%31%6%< 1%
5293%2.8%5%95%2.4%7%99.49%< 1%14%99.90%< 1%46%< 1%< 1%8%99.98%< 1%57%62%7%< 1%99.91%< 1%38%< 1%< 1%5%39%7%< 1%38%7%< 1%
5195.4%2.1%4%96.6%1.7%6%99.72%< 1%13%99.95%< 1%42%< 1%< 1%8%99.99%< 1%50%69%7%< 1%99.95%< 1%36%< 1%< 1%5%47%8%< 1%46%7%< 1%
5096.9%1.6%4%97.8%1.2%5%99.85%< 1%11%99.97%< 1%49%< 1%< 1%6%>99.99%< 1%-76%6%< 1%99.98%< 1%37%< 1%< 1%5%55%8%< 1%53%8%< 1%
4998.0%1.1%3%98.6%< 1%5%99.93%< 1%13%99.99%< 1%39%< 1%< 1%9%>99.99%< 1%-81%6%< 1%99.99%< 1%26%1.4%< 1%5%62%8%< 1%61%7%< 1%
4898.8%< 1%4%99.17%< 1%5%99.96%< 1%15%>99.99%< 1%-< 1%< 1%8%>99.99%< 1%-86%4.9%< 1%>99.99%< 1%-2.1%< 1%4%70%7%< 1%68%7%< 1%
4799.27%< 1%3%99.52%< 1%6%99.99%< 1%12%>99.99%< 1%-< 1%< 1%8%>99.99%< 1%-90%3.9%< 1%>99.99%< 1%-3.3%1.2%4%76%7%< 1%75%7%< 1%
4699.59%< 1%3%99.73%< 1%4%>99.99%< 1%->99.99%< 1%-< 1%< 1%9%>99.99%< 1%-93%3.1%< 1%>99.99%< 1%-4.9%1.6%5%82%6%< 1%80%6%< 1%
4599.78%< 1%3%99.86%< 1%6%>99.99%< 1%->99.99%< 1%-1.4%< 1%8%>99.99%< 1%-95.4%2.3%< 1%>99.99%< 1%-7%2.2%5%87%4.9%< 1%85%5.0%< 1%
4499.88%< 1%3%99.93%< 1%5%>99.99%< 1%->99.99%< 1%-2.2%< 1%8%100%< 1%-97.1%1.7%< 1%>99.99%< 1%-10%2.9%5%91%3.9%< 1%89%4.1%< 1%
4399.94%< 1%4%99.97%< 1%5%>99.99%< 1%-100%< 1%-3.3%1.1%9%100%< 1%-98.2%1.2%< 1%100%< 1%-14%3.7%5%94%3.0%< 1%93%3.2%< 1%
4299.97%< 1%4%99.98%< 1%4%>99.99%< 1%-100%< 1%-4.9%1.6%8%100%< 1%-99.0%< 1%< 1%100%< 1%-18%4.6%4.6%96.3%2.1%< 1%95.2%2.4%< 1%
Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points



Important matches for avoiding relegation
Forest vs Leeds (5.1%)Home WinDrawAway Win
Forest75%62%53%
Leeds75%82%90%
Everton vs Arsenal (2.2%)Home WinDrawAway Win
Everton56%42%35%



SouthamptonBournemouthEvertonWolvesForestLeedsWest HamLeicesterCrystal Palace
pointsQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChance
49< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%100%1.4%< 1%100%1.4%< 1%100%5%1.6%100%6%1.8%100%11%3.0%100%34%7%100%
48< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%100%2.1%< 1%100%2.1%< 1%100%7%2.2%100%8%2.5%100%14%3.8%100%41%7%100%
47< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%100%3.3%1.1%100%3.3%1.2%100%10%2.8%100%12%3.2%100%19%4.6%100%49%7%100%
46< 1%< 1%100%1.5%< 1%100%1.3%< 1%100%4.9%1.6%100%4.9%1.6%100%14%3.6%100%15%4.0%100%24%5%100%56%7%100%
451.4%< 1%100%2.3%< 1%100%2.1%< 1%100%7%2.2%100%7%2.2%100%18%4.3%100%20%4.8%100%30%6%100%64%7%100%
442.2%< 1%100%3.5%1.2%100%3.2%1.1%100%10%2.9%100%10%2.9%100%23%5%100%26%6%100%37%7%100%70%7%100%
433.3%1.1%100%5%1.7%99.9%4.7%1.5%100%14%3.7%100%14%3.7%>99.99%29%6%100%32%6%100%44%7%>99.99%77%6%100%
424.9%1.6%99.9%7%2.3%99.9%7%2.1%99.9%18%4.5%99.96%18%4.6%99.95%36%7%99.99%39%7%>99.99%52%7%>99.99%82%6%>99.99%
417%2.2%99.7%10%2.9%99.6%10%2.8%99.8%23%5%99.8%24%6%99.7%43%7%99.94%47%7%99.96%59%7%99.96%87%4.7%99.9%
4010%2.9%99.0%14%3.8%98.5%13%3.6%99.3%30%6%99.3%30%6%99.0%50%7%99.6%54%8%99.8%66%7%99.8%91%3.7%99.6%
3914%3.7%96.5%19%4.6%95.7%18%4.5%97.3%36%7%97.4%38%7%96.8%58%7%98.7%62%7%99.0%73%7%99.2%94%2.9%98.5%
3818%4.6%91%24%5%89%23%5%93%44%7%93%45%8%91%65%7%96.0%69%7%96.8%79%6%97.0%95.8%2.2%95%
3724%5%80%31%6%77%29%6%84%52%8%85%53%8%82%71%7%90%75%6%91%84%5%92%97.3%1.5%88%
3630%6%65%38%7%61%36%7%70%59%8%71%61%8%67%78%6%79%81%6%82%88%4.3%83%98.4%1.1%74%
3537%7%47%45%8%43%44%7%52%67%7%54%69%8%49%83%5%63%86%4.9%67%92%3.4%67%99.08%< 1%57%
3445%8%29%53%8%26%51%8%35%73%7%36%76%7%32%88%4.5%44%90%4.0%49%94%2.7%50%99.51%< 1%37%
3353%8%16%61%8%14%59%8%20%80%6%21%82%6%18%91%3.6%27%93%3.2%32%96.2%2.0%31%99.75%< 1%21%
3260%8%7%68%8%6%67%8%10%85%5%11%88%5%9%94%2.8%14%95.3%2.4%17%97.6%1.4%17%99.88%< 1%9%
3168%7%3.0%75%7%2.4%74%7%4.0%89%4.3%4.5%92%4.0%3.5%96.0%2.1%6%97.0%1.7%9%98.5%< 1%8%99.95%< 1%4%
3075%7%< 1%81%6%< 1%80%6%1.5%93%3.4%1.8%95%3.1%1.3%97.5%1.5%2%98.2%1.2%3%99.16%< 1%3%99.98%< 1%< 1%
2981%6%< 1%86%5%< 1%85%5%< 1%95.2%2.6%< 1%96.8%2.2%< 1%98.5%1.0%< 1%98.9%< 1%1%99.53%< 1%< 1%>99.99%< 1%< 1%
2886%5%< 1%91%4.2%< 1%89%4.3%< 1%97.0%1.8%< 1%98.2%1.4%< 1%99.16%< 1%< 1%99.43%< 1%< 1%99.76%< 1%< 1%>99.99%< 1%-
2790%4.2%< 1%94%3.2%< 1%93%3.4%< 1%98.2%1.2%< 1%99.09%< 1%< 1%99.56%< 1%< 1%99.71%< 1%< 1%99.88%< 1%< 1%>99.99%< 1%-
2694%3.3%< 1%96.1%2.3%< 1%95.4%2.6%< 1%99.0%< 1%< 1%99.59%< 1%< 1%99.78%< 1%< 1%99.86%< 1%< 1%99.95%< 1%< 1%100%< 1%-
Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points




EuropeEL (or CL)CL
Fourth team100%100%99.63%
Fifth team>99.99%99.98%6%
FA cup winners100%100%68%
League cup winners100%78%50%
Sixth team96.8%83%4.9%
Seventh team77%16%3.6%
Eighth team18%4.7%2.3%


Simulated points for winner: 84 - 90
Simulated points for fourth: 68 - 72
Simulated points for 17th team: 34 - 37

Coming Matches
Home
Draw
Away
Chelsea69%18%13%Fulham
Everton24%23%53%Arsenal
Aston Villa46%24%31%Leicester
Man United61%20%18%Crystal Palace
Wolves18%20%62%Liverpool
Brighton65%19%16%Bournemouth
Brentford59%21%20%Southampton
Newcastle61%20%19%West Ham
Forest40%24%36%Leeds
Tottenham32%24%44%Man City



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