Saturday, March 18, 2023

PL: Gap between top and bottom teams cemented.

The gap between top and bottom teams were cemented this midweek adn there are now a eight-point gap between Villa and Palace. The EL and CL have small probability (<10%) to affect the qualifications for teams 5-7. It happens ff Man United win EL and finish outside top-4 (<5%) or if Chelsea win CL and finish top-7 (<1%). The sixth team will qualify for EL in 88% of the simulations, while in the remaining cases that spot is taken by the FA cup winner.

 

Hot Teams
Arsenal: 15 points in the last 5 matches, 5.2 more than expected
Bournemouth: 7 points in the last 5 matches, 3.3 more than expected
Man City: 13 points in the last 5 matches, 3.0 more than expected
Southampton: 7 points in the last 5 matches, 2.5 more than expected
Aston Villa: 7 points in the last 5 matches, 1.3 more than expected

Cold Teams
Leicester: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 3.1 less than expected
Crystal Palace: 2 points in the last 5 matches, 2.8 less than expected
Forest: 2 points in the last 5 matches, 2.6 less than expected
Leeds: 4 points in the last 5 matches, 2.1 less than expected
West Ham: 5 points in the last 5 matches, 1.9 less than expected



Average Simulated
Season		Probabilities
PtsTeamPtsGDRelegatedTop 7Top 6Top 5Top 4Win LeagueECLELCL
66Arsenal86.2+46< 1%100%100%100%>99.99%57%< 1%< 1%>99.99%
61Man City84.5+57< 1%100%>99.99%>99.99%>99.99%43%< 1%< 1%>99.99%
50Man United71.6+14< 1%99.54%98.1%94%84%< 1%1.4%9%89%
48Tottenham66.3+18< 1%95.7%86%67%43%< 1%12%41%43%
47Newcastle65.5+23< 1%94%82%62%38%< 1%13%42%38%
42Liverpool63.9+26< 1%90%75%50%25%< 1%17%47%25%
42Brighton60.6+16< 1%68%39%20%8%< 1%25%38%8%
41Brentford56.5+6< 1%26%11%3.9%1.2%< 1%15%9%1.2%
37Chelsea55.5+4< 1%19%7%2.2%< 1%< 1%11%6%3.5%
39Fulham52.8-2< 1%6%1.6%< 1%< 1%< 1%4.1%3.4%< 1%
35Aston Villa50.4-9< 1%2.5%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%1.9%< 1%< 1%
27Crystal Palace42.4-134.9%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
27Wolves40.7-2010%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
24Leicester40.3-1011%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
24West Ham39.0-1318%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%35%< 1%
26Forest36.4-3544%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
24Bournemouth36.3-3445%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
23Leeds36.1-1841%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
25Everton35.6-2548%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
22Southampton32.3-3179%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%


Titles
TeamOne TitleTwo titlesThree titlesFour titlesDoubleTripleQuadruple
Arsenal57%





Man City84%39%6%
27%6%
Man United100%47%7%< 1%< 1%

Tottenham< 1%





Newcastle< 1%





Liverpool< 1%





Brighton11%





Chelsea3.0%





Fulham1.9%





West Ham35%





Important matches for title race
Arsenal vs Crystal Palace (3.7%)Home WinDrawAway Win
Arsenal63%49%42%
Man City37%51%58%



ArsenalMan City
pointsQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChance
951.4%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%-
943.3%1.9%99.6%< 1%< 1%99.7%
935%2.2%99.5%< 1%< 1%-
929%3.5%97.8%3.5%2.6%97%
9115%6%95.1%6%2.4%93%
9021%6%92%10%3.9%90%
8929%8%85%17%7%82%
8838%10%77%23%7%74%
8748%9%68%32%9%64%
8658%10%57%42%10%53%
8567%9%47%52%9%43%
8475%8%36%62%10%33%
8382%7%27%71%9%24%
8288%6%19%78%8%16%
8192%4.2%13%85%6%11%
8095.1%3.1%8%90%4.9%7%
7997.2%2.0%5%93%3.6%4%
7898.4%1.3%3%95.8%2.6%2.1%
Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points



Important matches for CL race
Southampton vs Tottenham (3.6%)Home WinDrawAway Win
Tottenham30%37%52%
Newcastle42%40%35%
Liverpool29%27%22%



Man UnitedTottenhamNewcastleLiverpoolBrightonChelseaBrentford
pointsQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChance
7619%6%>99.99%1.4%< 1%99.9%1.2%< 1%99.9%< 1%< 1%99.9%< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-
7526%7%99.97%2.4%1.0%99.8%2.3%1.1%99.9%< 1%< 1%99.8%< 1%< 1%99%< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-
7434%8%99.9%4.2%1.8%99.6%3.7%1.4%99.6%< 1%< 1%99%< 1%< 1%99%< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-
7342%9%99.7%7%3.0%98.5%6%2.4%98.7%2.1%1.2%98%< 1%< 1%99%< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-
7251%9%99.0%11%3.6%96.5%9%3.3%96.7%3.5%1.4%95%< 1%< 1%96%< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%95%
7160%9%97.6%16%5%93%14%4.1%93%6%2.5%91%1.5%< 1%91%< 1%< 1%91%< 1%< 1%88%
7069%9%94%23%7%85%19%6%86%10%3.9%83%2.6%1.1%82%< 1%< 1%82%< 1%< 1%85%
6976%7%89%30%7%75%26%7%76%14%4.5%73%4.2%1.6%70%< 1%< 1%77%< 1%< 1%71%
6882%6%82%39%9%62%33%7%63%21%6%60%7%2.5%54%< 1%< 1%55%< 1%< 1%57%
6788%5%71%49%9%46%41%8%48%28%7%45%10%3.3%38%< 1%< 1%38%1.1%< 1%39%
6692%4.0%60%58%9%32%50%9%33%36%8%31%14%4.2%24%< 1%< 1%25%2.0%< 1%24%
6595%2.9%51%67%9%19%59%9%21%46%9%19%20%6%13%1.8%< 1%13%3.3%1.3%13%
6496.7%2.1%42%75%8%10%67%8%11%55%9%10%26%7%6%3.1%1.2%8%5%2.1%5%
6398.1%1.4%38%81%7%4.7%75%8%5%63%9%4.6%34%7%2.4%5%2.1%5%8%3.0%1.7%
6298.9%< 1%36%87%6%1.8%81%7%1.9%72%8%1.8%42%8%< 1%8%3.2%3%12%3.9%< 1%
6199.44%< 1%35%91%4.3%< 1%87%6%< 1%79%7%< 1%51%9%< 1%12%3.9%3.1%18%5%< 1%
6099.72%< 1%34%95%3.1%< 1%91%4.3%< 1%85%6%< 1%59%9%< 1%18%6%3.0%24%7%< 1%
5999.87%< 1%34%96.7%2.2%< 1%94%3.2%< 1%89%4.8%< 1%68%8%< 1%25%7%3.0%32%7%< 1%
5899.94%< 1%33%98.2%1.4%< 1%96.4%2.3%< 1%93%3.6%< 1%75%7%< 1%32%7%3.0%40%9%< 1%
Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points



Important matches for EL race (EL or CL)
Southampton vs Tottenham (2.2%)Home WinDrawAway Win
Tottenham75%80%89%



LiverpoolNewcastleTottenhamBrightonWest HamMan UnitedBrentfordChelseaFulham
pointsQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChance
81< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-1.9%1.0%100%< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-
80< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-3.1%1.3%100%< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-
79< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-5%2.2%100%< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-
78< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-9%3.5%100%< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-
77< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-13%4.1%100%< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-
76< 1%< 1%100%1.2%< 1%100%1.4%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%-19%6%100%< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-
75< 1%< 1%100%2.3%1.1%100%2.4%1.0%100%< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%-26%7%100%< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-
74< 1%< 1%99.9%3.7%1.4%100%4.2%1.8%100%< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%-34%8%100%< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-
732.1%1.2%>99.99%6%2.4%100%7%3.0%100%< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%-42%9%100%< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-
723.5%1.4%100%9%3.3%>99.99%11%3.6%99.99%< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%-51%9%>99.99%< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-
716%2.5%99.9%14%4.1%99.9%16%5%99.95%1.5%< 1%99.9%< 1%< 1%-60%9%99.99%< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%-
7010%3.9%99.9%19%6%99.9%23%7%99.9%2.6%1.1%99.8%< 1%< 1%-69%9%99.95%< 1%< 1%99%< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%-
6914%4.5%99.7%26%7%99.7%30%7%99.7%4.2%1.6%99.6%< 1%< 1%-76%7%99.9%< 1%< 1%99%< 1%< 1%99%< 1%< 1%-
6821%6%99.2%33%7%99.2%39%9%99.0%7%2.5%98.9%< 1%< 1%-82%6%99.6%< 1%< 1%98%< 1%< 1%98%< 1%< 1%-
6728%7%97.9%41%8%98.2%49%9%97.6%10%3.3%97.3%< 1%< 1%-88%5%99.0%1.1%< 1%96%< 1%< 1%95%< 1%< 1%97%
6636%8%96.2%50%9%96.1%58%9%95.4%14%4.2%94%< 1%< 1%-92%4.0%97.7%2.0%< 1%90%< 1%< 1%90%< 1%< 1%89%
6546%9%92%59%9%93%67%9%91%20%6%88%< 1%< 1%-95%2.9%95%3.3%1.3%82%1.8%< 1%80%< 1%< 1%77%
6455%9%87%67%8%86%75%8%84%26%7%80%< 1%< 1%-96.7%2.1%90%5%2.1%69%3.1%1.2%68%< 1%< 1%62%
6363%9%78%75%8%77%81%7%74%34%7%69%< 1%< 1%-98.1%1.4%84%8%3.0%53%5%2.1%53%1.1%< 1%47%
6272%8%66%81%7%64%87%6%59%42%8%55%< 1%< 1%-98.9%< 1%75%12%3.9%37%8%3.2%37%2.0%< 1%31%
Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points



Important matches for Europe race (ECL, EL or CL)
Brentford vs Leicester (2.7%)Home WinDrawAway Win
Brentford32%20%15%
Brighton69%73%74%



BrightonLiverpoolBrentfordNewcastleTottenhamChelseaFulhamAston VillaMan United
pointsQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChance
6334%7%96.5%63%9%98.1%8%3.0%87%75%8%97.8%81%7%97.2%5%2.1%87%1.1%< 1%83%< 1%< 1%87%98.1%1.4%100%
6242%8%93%72%8%95.6%12%3.9%79%81%7%95.0%87%6%94%8%3.2%77%2.0%< 1%72%< 1%< 1%79%98.9%< 1%100%
6151%9%87%79%7%90%18%5%66%87%6%90%91%4.3%87%12%3.9%64%3.6%1.6%56%1.0%< 1%65%99.44%< 1%100%
6059%9%78%85%6%82%24%7%51%91%4.3%81%95%3.1%77%18%6%50%6%2.1%42%1.9%< 1%48%99.72%< 1%100%
5968%8%66%89%4.8%70%32%7%37%94%3.2%68%96.7%2.2%64%25%7%36%9%3.3%28%3.2%1.3%31%99.87%< 1%100%
5875%7%53%93%3.6%54%40%9%24%96.4%2.3%51%98.2%1.4%47%32%7%23%13%4.5%17%5%2.1%18%99.94%< 1%100%
5782%6%40%95.6%2.5%38%49%9%14%97.9%1.5%35%99.02%< 1%32%41%9%15%19%5%10%8%3.0%9%99.98%< 1%100%
5687%5%29%97.3%1.8%24%58%9%8%98.9%< 1%22%99.52%< 1%18%50%9%9%26%7%5%12%3.8%4%>99.99%< 1%100%
5591%4.2%22%98.5%1.2%12%67%9%3.8%99.44%< 1%11%99.78%< 1%8%59%9%6%34%8%3.5%17%5%1.5%>99.99%< 1%-
5494%3.1%16%99.19%< 1%6%75%8%1.6%99.73%< 1%5%99.91%< 1%3%68%9%4.2%43%9%2.6%24%6%< 1%>99.99%< 1%-
5396.6%2.2%13%99.57%< 1%2%82%7%< 1%99.89%< 1%2%99.97%< 1%< 1%75%8%3.6%52%10%2.1%31%7%< 1%>99.99%< 1%-
5298.0%1.4%12%99.80%< 1%< 1%88%6%< 1%99.96%< 1%< 1%99.99%< 1%1%82%7%3.1%62%9%2.1%39%9%< 1%100%< 1%-
5198.9%< 1%11%99.91%< 1%< 1%92%4.3%< 1%99.99%< 1%< 1%>99.99%< 1%-88%6%3.2%70%9%2.0%48%9%< 1%100%< 1%-
5099.47%< 1%11%99.96%< 1%< 1%95.1%3.0%< 1%>99.99%< 1%->99.99%< 1%-92%4.2%3.1%78%8%1.9%57%9%< 1%100%< 1%-
4999.76%< 1%11%99.98%< 1%< 1%97.2%2.1%< 1%>99.99%< 1%->99.99%< 1%-95%3.0%2.9%85%7%1.9%66%9%< 1%100%< 1%-
4899.89%< 1%11%>99.99%< 1%< 1%98.5%1.3%< 1%100%< 1%-100%< 1%-96.9%2.1%3%90%5%1.9%74%8%< 1%100%< 1%-
4799.96%< 1%12%>99.99%< 1%-99.28%< 1%< 1%100%< 1%-100%< 1%-98.3%1.4%3%94%3.9%1.9%81%7%< 1%100%< 1%-
4699.99%< 1%14%>99.99%< 1%-99.70%< 1%< 1%100%< 1%-100%< 1%-99.08%< 1%3%96.6%2.6%2.0%87%6%< 1%100%< 1%-
45>99.99%< 1%->99.99%< 1%-99.89%< 1%< 1%100%< 1%-100%< 1%-99.55%< 1%3%98.2%1.6%2%92%4.5%< 1%100%< 1%-
Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points



Important matches for avoiding relegation
Wolves vs Leeds (6.6%)Home WinDrawAway Win
Leeds50%60%76%
Wolves95.5%88%81%
Southampton vs Tottenham (3.2%)Home WinDrawAway Win
Southampton35%20%14%
Aston Villa vs Bournemouth (2.9%)Home WinDrawAway Win
Bournemouth49%57%73%
Chelsea vs Everton (2.9%)Home WinDrawAway Win
Everton47%56%73%



SouthamptonEvertonBournemouthForestLeedsWest HamLeicesterWolvesCrystal Palace
pointsQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChance
46< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%100%1.9%< 1%100%1.3%< 1%100%1.5%< 1%100%7%2.6%100%12%4.0%100%13%4.3%100%23%7%100%
45< 1%< 1%100%1.6%< 1%100%3.0%1.2%100%2.4%1.1%100%2.7%1.2%100%11%3.4%100%17%4.8%100%18%5%100%30%7%100%
44< 1%< 1%100%2.9%1.2%100%4.9%1.9%100%4.0%1.5%100%4.3%1.6%100%15%4.8%100%23%6%100%25%7%100%39%9%100%
43< 1%< 1%100%4.6%1.7%100%8%2.7%100%6%2.5%100%7%2.5%100%21%6%100%30%7%100%33%8%>99.99%49%9%100%
421.2%< 1%99.9%7%2.8%100%11%3.5%100%10%3.6%>99.99%10%3.6%100%28%7%100%38%8%100%41%9%100%58%9%>99.99%
412.2%1.0%99.9%11%4.0%99.97%16%4.9%99.95%15%4.6%99.9%15%4.5%99.98%36%8%>99.99%48%9%>99.99%51%10%99.99%67%9%>99.99%
403.7%1.5%99.6%16%4.9%99.8%22%6%99.6%21%6%99.5%21%6%99.9%45%9%99.94%57%9%99.96%61%10%99.9%75%8%99.92%
396%2.3%97.7%23%7%98.6%29%7%98.0%29%8%97.7%28%7%99.2%54%9%99.6%65%9%99.7%69%9%99.2%82%7%99.4%
389%3.5%92%31%8%94%37%8%92%37%8%92%36%8%96.5%63%9%97.9%74%8%98.1%77%8%96.4%88%6%96.8%
3714%4.3%78%40%9%84%46%9%79%47%10%79%45%9%89%71%8%92%81%7%93%84%7%88%92%4.3%89%
3620%6%58%50%10%66%56%9%60%57%10%59%55%9%73%79%7%79%86%6%80%90%5%73%95.3%3.0%72%
3528%8%34%60%10%44%65%9%37%67%9%37%64%9%52%85%6%58%91%4.6%59%94%4.0%50%97.3%2.1%48%
3436%8%16%69%9%24%73%9%18%76%9%18%72%9%30%90%5.0%36%94%3.4%36%96.3%2.8%28%98.6%1.3%24%
3346%10%6%78%9%11%81%7%7%84%8%7%80%8%14%94%3.7%18%96.7%2.3%18%98.0%1.7%12%99.33%< 1%10%
3256%10%1.7%85%7%3.5%87%6%2.0%90%6%2.2%86%6%4.9%96.2%2.7%7%98.2%1.5%7%99.08%1.0%4%99.71%< 1%2%
3166%10%< 1%91%5%< 1%92%4.8%< 1%94%4.4%< 1%91%5%1.4%97.9%1.7%2%99.07%< 1%2%99.62%< 1%< 1%99.89%< 1%< 1%
3075%9%< 1%95%4.0%< 1%95.1%3.3%< 1%97.1%3.0%< 1%95%3.6%< 1%99.0%1.0%< 1%99.56%< 1%< 1%99.86%< 1%< 1%99.96%< 1%< 1%
2983%8%< 1%97.5%2.7%< 1%97.5%2.3%< 1%98.7%1.6%< 1%97.0%2.3%< 1%99.54%< 1%< 1%99.81%< 1%< 1%99.96%< 1%< 1%99.99%< 1%< 1%
Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points




EuropeEL (or CL)CL
Fourth team100%100%99.84%
Fifth team100%>99.99%3.3%
FA cup winners100%100%82%
League cup winners100%98.6%89%
Sixth team99.89%88%1.6%
Seventh team91%9%< 1%
Eighth team8%3.1%< 1%


Simulated points for winner: 86 - 90
Simulated points for fourth: 67 - 70
Simulated points for 17th team: 35 - 37

Coming Matches
Home
Draw
Away
Aston Villa61%20%18%Bournemouth
Wolves51%23%26%Leeds
Southampton26%23%51%Tottenham
Brentford52%23%25%Leicester
Chelsea67%19%15%Everton
Arsenal69%18%13%Crystal Palace



 

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