PL: Man City have the title in their own hands

Man City have the title in their own hands; if they win the remaining matches, the title is theirs.

Hot Teams
Newcastle: 15 points in the last 5 matches, 7.0 more than expected
Aston Villa: 13 points in the last 5 matches, 5.8 more than expected
Man City: 15 points in the last 5 matches, 4.1 more than expected
Bournemouth: 9 points in the last 5 matches, 4.1 more than expected
Arsenal: 13 points in the last 5 matches, 2.9 more than expected

Cold Teams
Leicester: 1 point in the last 5 matches, 6.0 less than expected
Fulham: 1 point in the last 5 matches, 5.6 less than expected
Forest: 1 point in the last 5 matches, 3.7 less than expected
Chelsea: 5 points in the last 5 matches, 3.6 less than expected
Liverpool: 5 points in the last 5 matches, 2.5 less than expected

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
73	Arsenal	87.9	+50	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	100%	55%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
67	Man City	86.6	+61	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	100%	45%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
56	Man United	71.7	+12	< 1%	99.92%	99.23%	96.4%	86%	< 1%	< 1%	9%	90%
56	Newcastle	70.4	+30	< 1%	99.89%	98.8%	95%	81%	< 1%	1.4%	17%	81%
53	Tottenham	65.5	+16	< 1%	97.5%	87%	63%	23%	< 1%	12%	62%	23%
44	Liverpool	62.1	+23	< 1%	88%	64%	28%	6%	< 1%	27%	55%	6%
46	Brighton	60.5	+17	< 1%	76%	40%	15%	3.7%	< 1%	32%	44%	3.7%
47	Aston Villa	56.9	-1	< 1%	28%	10%	2.2%	< 1%	< 1%	19%	9%	< 1%
43	Brentford	53.4	+5	< 1%	7%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	6%	1.7%	< 1%
39	Chelsea	50.9	-1	< 1%	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.6%	< 1%	4.4%
39	Fulham	49.4	-6	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
33	Crystal Palace	44.6	-10	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
30	West Ham	40.2	-16	7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	29%	< 1%
31	Wolves	40.1	-22	7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
30	Bournemouth	38.3	-35	20%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
29	Leeds	37.6	-20	21%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
27	Everton	35.8	-23	41%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
25	Leicester	35.0	-14	46%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
27	Forest	33.9	-37	69%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
23	Southampton	31.2	-31	87%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Titles

Team	One Title	Two titles	Three titles	Four titles	Double	Triple	Quadruple
Arsenal	55%
Man City	88%	46%	9%		31%	9%
Man United	100%	45%	6%	< 1%	< 1%
Newcastle	< 1%
Brighton	11%
Chelsea	4.4%
West Ham	29%

Important matches for title race
West Ham vs Arsenal (6.2%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Man City	58%	50%	35%
Arsenal	42%	50%	65%
Man City vs Leicester (3.4%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Man City	49%	33%	26%
Arsenal	51%	67%	74%

	Arsenal			Man City
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
95	2.2%	1.7%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-
94	5%	2.8%	98.1%	2.3%	2.3%	99.9%
93	8%	2.6%	100%	2.3%	< 1%	-
92	15%	8%	94%	8%	6%	96.5%
91	23%	7%	88%	13%	5%	87%
90	32%	9%	83%	20%	7%	83%
89	45%	13%	67%	32%	12%	71%
88	55%	10%	58%	41%	9%	57%
87	66%	11%	46%	52%	11%	46%
86	76%	10%	32%	64%	11%	33%
85	83%	7%	24%	73%	9%	23%
84	90%	6%	16%	81%	8%	15%
83	94%	4.4%	9%	87%	6%	9%
82	96.6%	2.6%	6%	92%	4.4%	4.6%
81	98.3%	1.7%	3%	95.2%	3.3%	2.4%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for CL race
Aston Villa vs Newcastle (3.5%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Newcastle	74%	81%	90%
Tottenham	26%	23%	19%
Liverpool	7%	6%	4.1%
Tottenham vs Bournemouth (2.5%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Tottenham	27%	15%	11%
Newcastle	79%	85%	86%
Man United	89%	92%	93%
Forest vs Man United (2.3%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Man United	84%	88%	94%
Tottenham	28%	25%	20%
Liverpool	7%	6%	4.9%

	Man United			Newcastle			Tottenham			Liverpool			Chelsea			Brighton
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
79	3.3%	1.4%	100%	1.5%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
78	7%	3.6%	100%	3.4%	2.0%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
77	11%	3.8%	>99.99%	6%	2.3%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
76	16%	6%	100%	9%	3.5%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
75	25%	8%	99.98%	15%	6%	>99.99%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
74	33%	8%	99.9%	21%	6%	99.94%	1.3%	< 1%	97%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	99%
73	43%	10%	99.7%	29%	8%	99.8%	2.1%	< 1%	96%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	95%
72	53%	11%	98.9%	39%	10%	99.3%	5%	2.9%	90%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	93%
71	63%	9%	97.2%	49%	9%	97.3%	8%	3.3%	79%	< 1%	< 1%	76%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	83%
70	72%	9%	94%	59%	10%	94%	13%	4.6%	70%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	1.1%	< 1%	71%
69	80%	8%	87%	69%	10%	87%	21%	8%	53%	3.8%	2.9%	50%	< 1%	< 1%	-	2.1%	< 1%	56%
68	86%	6%	79%	77%	8%	76%	29%	8%	38%	7%	3.0%	35%	< 1%	< 1%	-	4.1%	2.0%	37%
67	91%	4.9%	68%	84%	7%	62%	39%	10%	25%	11%	4.1%	23%	< 1%	< 1%	-	7%	2.5%	23%
66	95%	3.5%	55%	90%	6%	44%	51%	12%	13%	19%	8%	12%	< 1%	< 1%	-	10%	3.9%	12%
65	97.0%	2.2%	46%	94%	3.9%	28%	61%	10%	6%	26%	7%	5%	< 1%	< 1%	-	16%	6%	4.9%
64	98.4%	1.5%	39%	96.3%	2.8%	15%	71%	10%	2.5%	36%	10%	2.1%	< 1%	< 1%	-	23%	6%	1.8%
63	99.24%	< 1%	35%	98.1%	1.8%	7%	80%	9%	< 1%	47%	11%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	6%	31%	8%	< 1%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for EL race (EL or CL)
Leeds vs Liverpool (4.5%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Liverpool	47%	55%	70%
Brighton	54%	50%	43%
Tottenham	88%	87%	83%
Aston Villa	12%	10%	8%
Chelsea vs Brighton (3.3%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Brighton	40%	48%	62%
Liverpool	64%	61%	54%
Tottenham	87%	85%	81%
Tottenham vs Bournemouth (2.4%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Tottenham	89%	79%	72%
Brighton	46%	50%	52%
Liverpool	59%	63%	65%
Aston Villa vs Newcastle (2.3%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Aston Villa	15%	7%	4.8%
Newcastle	97.4%	98.7%	99.6%

	Tottenham			Liverpool			Brighton			West Ham			Newcastle			Aston Villa			Man United			Brentford
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
65	61%	10%	93%	26%	7%	91%	16%	6%	91%	< 1%	< 1%	-	94%	3.9%	96.3%	1.9%	< 1%	84%	97.0%	2.2%	97%	< 1%	< 1%	90%
64	71%	10%	88%	36%	10%	86%	23%	6%	84%	< 1%	< 1%	-	96.3%	2.8%	92%	3.3%	1.4%	73%	98.4%	1.5%	93%	< 1%	< 1%	76%
63	80%	9%	79%	47%	11%	77%	31%	8%	73%	< 1%	< 1%	-	98.1%	1.8%	85%	6%	3.2%	55%	99.24%	< 1%	87%	< 1%	< 1%	63%
62	87%	7%	67%	57%	10%	66%	40%	10%	60%	< 1%	< 1%	-	99.06%	< 1%	72%	10%	3.8%	39%	99.65%	< 1%	77%	1.2%	< 1%	44%
61	92%	5%	53%	67%	10%	53%	50%	9%	47%	< 1%	< 1%	-	99.60%	< 1%	57%	16%	5%	25%	99.86%	< 1%	70%	2.4%	1.1%	27%
60	95.6%	3.7%	37%	76%	9%	39%	60%	10%	35%	< 1%	< 1%	-	99.85%	< 1%	39%	24%	8%	13%	99.95%	< 1%	58%	4.0%	1.7%	16%
59	97.7%	2.1%	22%	83%	7%	27%	69%	10%	26%	< 1%	< 1%	-	99.95%	< 1%	22%	32%	8%	7%	99.99%	< 1%	56%	8%	3.9%	7%
58	98.9%	1.2%	12%	89%	6%	16%	77%	8%	19%	< 1%	< 1%	-	99.99%	< 1%	11%	42%	10%	3.0%	>99.99%	< 1%	-	12%	4.5%	2.7%
57	99.58%	< 1%	5%	93%	4.2%	9%	85%	7%	15%	< 1%	< 1%	-	>99.99%	< 1%	4%	54%	12%	1.1%	>99.99%	< 1%	-	18%	6%	1.1%
56	99.85%	< 1%	2%	95.8%	2.8%	4%	90%	5%	13%	< 1%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	64%	10%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-	28%	9%	< 1%
55	99.95%	< 1%	< 1%	97.6%	1.9%	1.7%	94%	3.8%	12%	< 1%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	74%	10%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-	37%	9%	< 1%
54	>99.99%	< 1%	< 1%	98.8%	1.1%	< 1%	96.5%	2.7%	12%	< 1%	< 1%	30%	100%	< 1%	-	83%	9%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-	48%	11%	< 1%
53	100%	< 1%	-	99.38%	< 1%	< 1%	98.2%	1.7%	11%	< 1%	< 1%	30%	100%	< 1%	-	89%	6%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-	60%	12%	< 1%
52	100%	< 1%	-	99.72%	< 1%	< 1%	99.10%	< 1%	11%	< 1%	< 1%	27%	100%	< 1%	-	94%	4.6%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-	70%	10%	< 1%
51	100%	< 1%	-	99.89%	< 1%	< 1%	99.62%	< 1%	12%	< 1%	< 1%	28%	100%	< 1%	-	97.1%	3.3%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-	79%	9%	< 1%
50	100%	< 1%	-	99.95%	< 1%	< 1%	99.86%	< 1%	12%	< 1%	< 1%	29%	100%	< 1%	-	98.7%	1.6%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-	87%	8%	< 1%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for Europe race (ECL, EL or CL)
Aston Villa vs Newcastle (4.4%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Aston Villa	39%	24%	18%
Brighton	74%	81%	83%
Liverpool	85%	89%	91%
Chelsea vs Brighton (2.6%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Brighton	74%	80%	90%
Aston Villa	30%	28%	23%
Chelsea	7%	5%	4.8%
Leeds vs Liverpool (2.4%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Liverpool	80%	85%	93%
Aston Villa	32%	29%	26%

	Brighton			Liverpool			Aston Villa			Tottenham			Brentford			Chelsea			Newcastle
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
79	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	1.5%	< 1%	100%
78	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	3.4%	2.0%	100%
77	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	6%	2.3%	100%
76	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	9%	3.5%	100%
75	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	15%	6%	100%
74	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	1.3%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	21%	6%	100%
73	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	2.1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	29%	8%	100%
72	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	5%	2.9%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	39%	10%	100%
71	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	8%	3.3%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	49%	9%	100%
70	1.1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	13%	4.6%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	59%	10%	100%
69	2.1%	< 1%	100%	3.8%	2.9%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	21%	8%	>99.99%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	69%	10%	100%
68	4.1%	2.0%	>99.99%	7%	3.0%	>99.99%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	29%	8%	>99.99%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	77%	8%	100%
67	7%	2.5%	99.98%	11%	4.1%	99.99%	< 1%	< 1%	99.9%	39%	10%	>99.99%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	84%	7%	>99.99%
66	10%	3.9%	99.9%	19%	8%	99.96%	< 1%	< 1%	99.4%	51%	12%	99.97%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	90%	6%	>99.99%
65	16%	6%	99.8%	26%	7%	99.9%	1.9%	< 1%	98%	61%	10%	99.90%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	-	94%	3.9%	99.96%
64	23%	6%	99.6%	36%	10%	99.7%	3.3%	1.4%	97%	71%	10%	99.7%	< 1%	< 1%	97%	< 1%	< 1%	-	96.3%	2.8%	99.8%
63	31%	8%	99.1%	47%	11%	99.3%	6%	3.2%	91%	80%	9%	99.2%	< 1%	< 1%	94%	< 1%	< 1%	90%	98.1%	1.8%	99.4%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for avoiding relegation
Everton vs Fulham (6.4%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Everton	73%	54%	43%
Forest vs Man United (5.8%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Forest	52%	30%	21%
Leeds vs Liverpool (3.6%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Leeds	92%	80%	72%
Southampton vs Crystal Palace (3.6%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Southampton	21%	9%	6%
Crystal Palace	99.1%	99.6%	99.95%
Wolves vs Brentford (2.5%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Wolves	97.9%	92%	87%
Man City vs Leicester (2.1%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Leicester	51%	61%	78%
Tottenham vs Bournemouth (2%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Bournemouth	76%	84%	94%

	Southampton			Forest			Leicester			Everton			Leeds			Bournemouth			West Ham			Wolves
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
44	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	1.5%	< 1%	100%	5%	2.1%	100%	7%	2.8%	100%	19%	6%	100%	16%	7%	100%
43	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	1.8%	< 1%	100%	3.2%	1.8%	100%	8%	3.2%	100%	12%	5%	100%	27%	8%	100%	24%	7%	100%
42	< 1%	< 1%	100%	1.5%	< 1%	100%	3.0%	1.3%	100%	5%	2.2%	100%	14%	6%	100%	18%	6%	100%	35%	8%	100%	33%	9%	100%
41	< 1%	< 1%	100%	2.6%	1.1%	>99.99%	6%	3.2%	>99.99%	9%	3.4%	>99.99%	20%	6%	>99.99%	25%	8%	100%	45%	10%	>99.99%	44%	12%	>99.99%
40	< 1%	< 1%	99.9%	5%	2.6%	99.8%	10%	3.8%	99.98%	15%	6%	99.96%	29%	8%	99.98%	36%	10%	99.94%	56%	11%	>99.99%	55%	11%	99.98%
39	2.0%	1.2%	99.1%	8%	3.3%	98.5%	15%	5%	99.8%	21%	7%	99.6%	40%	11%	99.8%	46%	10%	99.5%	66%	10%	99.9%	66%	11%	99.8%
38	3.6%	1.6%	95%	13%	4.7%	94%	24%	9%	98.8%	30%	8%	98.0%	50%	10%	98.6%	57%	11%	97.1%	75%	9%	99.1%	77%	11%	98.5%
37	6%	2.4%	85%	21%	8%	81%	33%	9%	95%	41%	11%	92%	61%	11%	94%	69%	12%	89%	84%	8%	95.5%	85%	8%	94%
36	11%	4.9%	63%	30%	9%	59%	43%	10%	83%	51%	10%	78%	72%	11%	82%	78%	9%	72%	90%	6%	85%	91%	6%	81%
35	17%	6%	38%	40%	10%	35%	55%	12%	62%	62%	11%	55%	81%	9%	61%	86%	8%	49%	94%	4.5%	65%	95.5%	4.7%	58%
34	24%	7%	18%	53%	13%	16%	66%	10%	38%	74%	11%	31%	88%	7%	38%	92%	7%	25%	97.2%	3.1%	39%	97.9%	2.4%	34%
33	35%	11%	5%	64%	11%	5%	75%	10%	17%	82%	8%	13%	94%	6%	17%	96.1%	3.7%	10%	98.7%	1.6%	18%	99.15%	1.3%	14%
32	45%	10%	1.2%	75%	10%	1.3%	84%	9%	6%	89%	7%	4.3%	96.9%	3.1%	6%	98.3%	2.2%	3%	99.53%	< 1%	7%	99.85%	< 1%	4%
31	56%	11%	< 1%	86%	11%	< 1%	90%	6%	1.4%	94%	5%	< 1%	98.7%	1.8%	1.6%	99.64%	1.3%	< 1%	99.91%	< 1%	1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%
30	69%	13%	< 1%	92%	7%	< 1%	94%	4.3%	< 1%	97.4%	2.9%	< 1%	99.74%	1.0%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-
29	78%	9%	< 1%	96.1%	3.9%	< 1%	97.5%	3.0%	< 1%	98.9%	1.5%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

	Europe	EL (or CL)	CL
Fourth team	100%	100%	99.79%
Fifth team	100%	>99.99%	3.4%
FA cup winners	100%	100%	86%
League cup winners	100%	99.42%	90%
Sixth team	99.99%	92%	< 1%
Seventh team	95.8%	8%	< 1%
Eighth team	7%	2.3%	< 1%

Simulated points for winner: 88 - 91
Simulated points for fourth: 68 - 71
Simulated points for 17th team: 35 - 37

Coming Matches

Home		Draw		Away
Aston Villa	41%	24%	35%	Newcastle
Chelsea	53%	23%	25%	Brighton
Everton	45%	24%	31%	Fulham
Tottenham	70%	17%	13%	Bournemouth
Wolves	40%	24%	36%	Brentford
Southampton	41%	24%	35%	Crystal Palace
Man City	78%	13%	8%	Leicester
West Ham	28%	23%	49%	Arsenal
Forest	24%	22%	53%	Man United
Leeds	25%	23%	52%	Liverpool