PL: Everton favorites in relegation battle

The relegation battle is between three teams and only one get a new contract: Everton (71%), Leicester (24%) or Leeds (5%). Everton clinch a new contract if they win against Bournemouth (home). Leicester have 53% if they win against West Ham - and Leeds have 16% if they win against Tottenham (home).

Important matches for avoiding relegation
Everton vs Bournemouth (71.6%)	Home Win (47%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (29%)
Everton	100%	55%	37%
Leicester	< 1%	45%	45%
Leeds	< 1%	< 1%	18%
Leicester vs West Ham (55.7%)	Home Win (45%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (31%)
Leicester	53%	< 1%	< 1%
Everton	47%	91%	90%
Leeds	< 1%	9%	10%
Leeds vs Tottenham (10.6%)	Home Win (32%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (44%)
Leeds	16%	< 1%	< 1%
Everton	61%	76%	76%

 

 The ECL spot is between Aston Villa (66%), Tottenham (28%) and Brentford (6%). Aston Villa clinch ECL if they win against Brighton (home, 47%). Tottenham have 53% if they win against Leeds (away). Brentford have 30% if they win against City (home) as they also need that neither Tottenham nor Aston Villa win their matches.

Important matches for Europe race (ECL, EL or CL)
Aston Villa vs Brighton (86.1%)	Home Win (47%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (29%)
Aston Villa	100%	45%	26%
Tottenham	< 1%	44%	62%
Brentford	< 1%	11%	11%
Leeds vs Tottenham (40.4%)	Home Win (32%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (44%)
Tottenham	< 1%	23%	53%
Aston Villa	89%	66%	47%
Brentford	11%	10%	< 1%
Brentford vs Man City (17.7%)	Home Win (20%)	Draw (21%)	Away Win (59%)
Brentford	30%	< 1%	< 1%
Aston Villa	48%	70%	70%

 

 

Average Simulated Season

Probabilities

Pts

Team

Pts

GD

Relegated

Top 7

Top 6

Top 5

Top 4

Win League

ECL

EL

CL

89

Man City

91.0

+64

< 1%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

< 1%

< 1%

100%

81

Arsenal

83.3

+43

< 1%

100%

100%

100%

100%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

100%

72

Man United

74.1

+14

< 1%

100%

100%

100%

99.96%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

99.96%

70

Newcastle

71.3

+35

< 1%

100%

100%

100%

100%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

100%

66

Liverpool

68.0

+28

< 1%

100%

100%

100%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

99.96%

< 1%

62

Brighton

63.1

+20

< 1%

100%

100%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

100%

< 1%

58

Aston Villa

59.7

+4

< 1%

66%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

66%

< 1%

< 1%

57

Tottenham

58.5

+5

< 1%

28%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

28%

< 1%

< 1%

56

Brentford

56.8

+9

< 1%

6%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

6%

< 1%

< 1%

52

Fulham

52.7

+1

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

44

Crystal Palace

46.1

-8

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

43

Chelsea

44.5

-8

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

41

Wolves

41.5

-24

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

40

West Ham

41.2

-12

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

53%

< 1%

39

Bournemouth

40.1

-34

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

37

Forest

37.7

-31

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

33

Everton

34.7

-23

29%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

31

Leicester

32.6

-18

76%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

31

Leeds

32.2

-28

95%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

24

Southampton

24.8

-37

100%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%