PL: Tottenham the most positive start

Tottenham with the most positive start, taking 4.5 more points than expected.

Hot Teams
Tottenham: 10 points in the last 4 matches, 4.5 more than expected
West Ham: 10 points in the last 4 matches, 4.3 more than expected
Man City: 12 points in the last 4 matches, 2.6 more than expected
Liverpool: 10 points in the last 4 matches, 2.6 more than expected
Forest: 6 points in the last 4 matches, 2.5 more than expected

Cold Teams
Everton: 1 point in the last 4 matches, 4.3 less than expected
Burnley: 0 points in the last 3 matches, 3.4 less than expected
Sheffield United: 1 point in the last 4 matches, 3.3 less than expected
Chelsea: 4 points in the last 4 matches, 2.6 less than expected
Luton: 0 points in the last 3 matches, 2.2 less than expected

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
12	Man City	88.0	+60	< 1%	>99.99%	99.99%	99.97%	99.89%	89%	< 1%	< 1%	99.93%
10	Liverpool	74.1	+34	< 1%	98.2%	96.5%	94%	88%	7%	1.3%	6%	91%
10	Arsenal	70.3	+26	< 1%	94%	90%	84%	74%	2.9%	3.7%	14%	77%
6	Man United	62.3	+13	< 1%	70%	58%	46%	31%	< 1%	11%	27%	31%
3	Newcastle	61.1	+18	< 1%	65%	53%	40%	27%	< 1%	11%	23%	31%
10	Tottenham	60.6	+12	< 1%	61%	49%	36%	23%	< 1%	11%	25%	23%
9	Brighton	59.4	+11	< 1%	55%	43%	30%	19%	< 1%	11%	21%	25%
6	Aston Villa	58.4	+7	< 1%	48%	37%	25%	15%	< 1%	8%	39%	15%
10	West Ham	56.0	+3	< 1%	35%	25%	16%	9%	< 1%	10%	15%	9%
6	Brentford	55.9	+7	< 1%	36%	26%	16%	9%	< 1%	11%	15%	9%
7	Crystal Palace	50.8	-5	2.2%	14%	8%	4.7%	2.2%	< 1%	5%	6%	2.2%
4	Chelsea	50.2	-2	2.6%	13%	8%	4.3%	2.0%	< 1%	6%	7%	4.0%
4	Fulham	47.2	-13	6%	6%	3.4%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%	3.1%	3.3%	< 1%
3	Wolves	43.6	-16	14%	2.1%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.7%	1.1%	< 1%
0	Burnley	42.0	-19	20%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.6%	1.1%	< 1%
6	Forest	41.8	-20	20%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.8%	< 1%
1	Everton	39.0	-22	33%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	4.2%	< 1%
2	Bournemouth	36.4	-26	49%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.3%	< 1%
1	Sheffield United	32.9	-30	69%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.1%	< 1%
0	Luton	29.9	-40	83%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Titles

Team	One Title	Two titles	Three titles	Four titles	Double	Treble	Quadruple
Man City	97.7%	74%	32%	6%	38%	15%	6%
Liverpool	47%	9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Arsenal	28%	3.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Man United	12%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
Newcastle	15%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Tottenham	8%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
Brighton	14%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Aston Villa	33%	1.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
West Ham	4.0%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
Brentford	4.9%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
Crystal Palace	2.4%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
Chelsea	6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Fulham	2.3%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
Wolves	1.2%	< 1%
Burnley	1.6%	< 1%
Forest	1.9%	< 1%
Everton	4.8%	< 1%
Bournemouth	1.6%	< 1%
Sheffield United	1.4%	< 1%
Luton	< 1%	< 1%

	Europe	EL (or CL)	CL
Fourth team	100%	100%	99.35%
Fifth team	99.98%	99.90%	4.3%
FA cup winners	100%	100%	60%
League cup winners	>99.99%	72%	63%
Sixth team	92%	70%	3.2%
Seventh team	61%	13%	2.6%
Eighth team	18%	8%	2.1%

Simulated points for winner: 84 - 93
Simulated points for fourth: 65 - 69
Simulated points for 17th team: 36 - 39