Eight countries have qualified so far: Portugal, France, England, Belgium, Spain, Turkey, Austria, and Scotland.
Ranking
The ranking decides the seeding of the Euro Finals
The ranking is decided by group position, higher number of points, superior goal difference etc.
Probabilities | Average Outcome | ||||||||||||
Group | Country | Euro | Playoff | 2nd | 1st | Pot 4 | Pot 3 | Pot 2 | Pot 1 | Rank | Grp Rnk | Pts | GD |
J | Portugal | 100% | < 1% | < 1% | 100% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 100% | 2.1 | 1 | 23.7 | 28.8 |
B | France | 100% | < 1% | < 1% | 100% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 99.76% | 3.6 | 1 | 23 | 18.5 |
C | England | 100% | < 1% | < 1% | 100% | < 1% | < 1% | 7% | 93% | 4.5 | 1 | 21.1 | 22.2 |
F | Belgium | 100% | < 1% | < 1% | 99.27% | < 1% | < 1% | 5.0% | 94% | 4.7 | 1 | 21.4 | 18.7 |
A | Spain | 100% | < 1% | 7% | 93% | < 1% | 2.8% | 13% | 84% | 6 | 1.1 | 20.4 | 21.5 |
G | Hungary | 99.31% | < 1% | 3.9% | 95.2% | 1.2% | 2.9% | 76% | 19% | 8.2 | 1.1 | 18.5 | 10 |
E | Albania | 99.99% | < 1% | 10% | 90% | 3.5% | 6% | 88% | 2.2% | 9.4 | 1.1 | 17.4 | 10.7 |
H | Denmark | 99.85% | < 1% | 14% | 85% | 3.0% | 11% | 84% | 1.8% | 9.5 | 1.2 | 17.9 | 8.8 |
I | Switzerland | 97.6% | 4.2% | 14% | 82% | 13% | 2.9% | 81% | < 1% | 11.7 | 1.2 | 15.8 | 12.6 |
D | Turkey | 100% | < 1% | 49% | 51% | 2.1% | 46% | 51% | < 1% | 13 | 1.5 | 16.8 | 6 |
F | Austria | 100% | < 1% | 99.27% | < 1% | < 1% | 55% | 45% | < 1% | 13.1 | 2 | 18 | 9 |
A | Scotland | 100% | < 1% | 93% | 7% | 1.8% | 57% | 36% | 5% | 13.1 | 1.9 | 18.1 | 9.5 |
B | Netherlands | 99.96% | < 1% | 99.91% | < 1% | 1.5% | 82% | 17% | < 1% | 13.7 | 2 | 17.5 | 9.9 |
G | Serbia | 99.84% | < 1% | 95% | 4.8% | 10% | 85% | 5% | < 1% | 15.5 | 2 | 15.6 | 8.4 |
H | Slovenia | 91% | 1.4% | 77% | 15% | 14% | 63% | 15% | < 1% | 16.6 | 1.9 | 15.7 | 4.6 |
E | Czechia | 96.9% | 4.5% | 86% | 10% | 42% | 45% | 10% | < 1% | 17.2 | 2 | 14.8 | 6.7 |
D | Croatia | 78% | 47% | 37% | 16% | 28% | 34% | 16% | < 1% | 18.3 | 2.3 | 15.4 | 11.3 |
C | Italy | 87% | 31% | 69% | < 1% | 34% | 53% | < 1% | < 1% | 18.8 | 2.3 | 14.3 | 7.1 |
D | Wales | 64% | 54% | 14% | 32% | 25% | 7% | 32% | < 1% | 18.8 | 2.2 | 14.1 | 2.2 |
J | Slovakia | 96.5% | < 1% | 96.5% | < 1% | 84% | 12% | < 1% | < 1% | 20.2 | 2 | 12.7 | 1.9 |
I | Israel | 63% | 47% | 44% | 9% | 51% | 2.9% | 9% | < 1% | 21.4 | 2.4 | 12 | -1.3 |
I | Romania | 52% | < 1% | 42% | 9% | 41% | < 1% | 9% | < 1% | 21.7 | 2.4 | 11.8 | 1.4 |
C | Ukraine | 58% | 69% | 31% | < 1% | 36% | 23% | < 1% | < 1% | 22.1 | 2.7 | 13.6 | 1.5 |
E | Poland | 37% | 96.0% | 4.0% | < 1% | 37% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 23.8 | 3.1 | 11.8 | -0.4 |
H | Kazakhstan | 12% | 91% | 9% | < 1% | 5% | 6% | < 1% | < 1% | 24.3 | 3.4 | 12.5 | -1.8 |
B | Greece | 51% | 99.91% | < 1% | < 1% | 51% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 24.5 | 3 | 12.8 | 5 |
H | Finland | 23% | 100% | < 1% | < 1% | 23% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 24.5 | 3.6 | 11.1 | -1.8 |
A | Georgia | 42% | 100% | < 1% | < 1% | 42% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 24.6 | 4 | 8.7 | -6.4 |
A | Norway | 18% | 67% | < 1% | < 1% | 18% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 24.6 | 3 | 11 | 1.4 |
J | Bosnia and Herzegovina | 18% | 100% | < 1% | < 1% | 18% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 24.6 | 3.9 | 6.5 | -8.9 |
J | Luxembourg | 7% | 96.9% | 3.1% | < 1% | 7% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 24.8 | 3.3 | 9.1 | -12.4 |
G | Montenegro | 1.3% | < 1% | 1.3% | < 1% | 1.0% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 24.9 | 3.1 | 10.9 | -1.9 |
B | Ireland | 3.0% | 15% | < 1% | < 1% | 3.0% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 24.9 | 4 | 6.3 | -2.3 |
E | Moldova | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 25 | 3.9 | 8.9 | -5.2 |
C | North Macedonia | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 25 | 3.9 | 8.3 | -10.9 |
F | Estonia | < 1% | 97.9% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 25 | 5 | 2.1 | -19.1 |
D | Armenia | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 25 | 4 | 7.9 | -5.1 |
J | Iceland | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 25 | 4.7 | 5.2 | -9.4 |
D | Latvia | < 1% | 64% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 25 | 5 | 3.3 | -14.4 |
F | Azerbaijan | < 1% | 12% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 25 | 4 | 4.7 | -13 |
I | Kosovo | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 25 | 4.3 | 6.6 | -4.6 |
Playoff teams are selected in each of League A, B and C
from the best-ranked team not yet qualified (in Top 2).
If one of those leagues have fewer than four non-qualified
teams, those spots are taken by League D group winners
(unless already qualified)
League A | Top 2 | Playoff | At least Playoff | Home Advantage | |
B | Netherlands | 99.91% | < 1% | 100% | < 1% |
D | Croatia | 53% | 47% | 100% | 47% |
A | Spain | 100% | 100% | ||
C | Italy | 69% | 31% | 100% | 31% |
H | Denmark | 99.71% | < 1% | 100% | < 1% |
J | Portugal | 100% | 100% | ||
F | Belgium | 100% | 100% | ||
G | Hungary | 99.01% | < 1% | 100% | < 1% |
I | Switzerland | 95.8% | 4.2% | >99.99% | 3.6% |
Germany | |||||
E | Poland | 4.0% | 96.0% | >99.99% | 79% |
B | France | 100% | 100% | ||
F | Austria | 100% | 100% | ||
E | Czechia | 95.5% | 4.5% | >99.99% | 3.5% |
C | England | 100% | 100% | ||
D | Wales | 46% | 54% | 99.98% | 34% |
League B | Top 2 | Playoff | At least Playoff | Home Advantage | |
I | Israel | 53% | 47% | 100% | 47% |
J | Bosnia and Herzegovina | 100% | 100% | 100% | |
G | Serbia | 99.65% | < 1% | 100% | < 1% |
A | Scotland | 100% | 100% | ||
H | Finland | 100% | 100% | 53% | |
C | Ukraine | 31% | 69% | 99.89% | |
E | Albania | 99.99% | < 1% | >99.99% | |
A | Norway | 67% | 67% | ||
H | Slovenia | 91% | 1.4% | 93% | |
B | Ireland | 15% | 15% | ||
J | Iceland | < 1% | < 1% | ||
G | Montenegro | 1.3% | 1.3% | ||
I | Romania | 52% | 52% | ||
F | Sweden | ||||
D | Armenia | < 1% | < 1% | ||
League C | Top 2 | Playoff | At least Playoff | Home Advantage | |
A | Georgia | 100% | 100% | 100% | |
B | Greece | < 1% | 99.91% | 100% | 99.91% |
D | Turkey | 100% | 100% | ||
H | Kazakhstan | 9% | 91% | 100% | < 1% |
J | Luxembourg | 3.1% | 96.9% | 100% | < 1% |
F | Azerbaijan | 12% | 12% | ||
I | Kosovo | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | |
G | Bulgaria | ||||
E | Faroe Islands | ||||
C | North Macedonia | < 1% | < 1% | ||
J | Slovakia | 96.5% | 96.5% | ||
H | Northern Ireland | ||||
A | Cyprus | ||||
I | Belarus | ||||
G | Lithuania | ||||
B | Gibraltar | ||||
League D | Top 2 | Playoff | At least Playoff | Home Advantage | |
F | Estonia | 97.9% | 97.9% | ||
D | Latvia | 64% | 64% | ||
E | Moldova | < 1% | < 1% | ||
C | Malta | ||||
I | Andorra | ||||
H | San Marino | ||||
J | Liechtenstein |
Group A
Probabilities | Point | GD | ||||||||
Country | At least Playoff | At least Second | Group Winner | Min | 25% | Average | 75% | Max | Average | |
Spain | 100% | 100% | 93% | 15 | 21 | 20.4 | 21 | 21 | 21.5 | |
Scotland | 100% | 100% | 7% | 15 | 16 | 18.1 | 19 | 21 | 9.5 | |
Norway | 67% | < 1% | < 1% | 10 | 10 | 11 | 13 | 13 | 1.4 | |
Georgia | 100% | < 1% | < 1% | 7 | 7 | 8.7 | 10 | 13 | -6.4 | |
Cyprus | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.2 | 0 | 3 | -26 |
Spain and Scotland have secured a place in the finals.
Group B
Probabilities | Point | GD | ||||||||
Country | At least Playoff | At least Second | Group Winner | Min | 25% | Average | 75% | Max | Average | |
France | 100% | 100% | 100% | 18 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 24 | 18.5 | |
Netherlands | 100% | 99.91% | < 1% | 12 | 18 | 17.5 | 18 | 18 | 9.9 | |
Greece | 100% | < 1% | < 1% | 12 | 12 | 12.8 | 13 | 15 | 5 | |
Ireland | 15% | < 1% | < 1% | 6 | 6 | 6.3 | 6 | 9 | -2.3 | |
Gibraltar | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.1 | 0 | 6 | -31.1 |
France have qualified. Greece need to take more points against France than Netherlands take against Ireland and Gibraltar.
Group C
Probabilities | Point | GD | ||||||||
Country | At least Playoff | At least Second | Group Winner | Min | 25% | Average | 75% | Max | Average | |
England | 100% | 100% | 100% | 16 | 20 | 21.1 | 22 | 22 | 22.2 | |
Italy | 100% | 69% | < 1% | 10 | 13 | 14.3 | 16 | 16 | 7.1 | |
Ukraine | 99.89% | 31% | < 1% | 10 | 13 | 13.6 | 14 | 16 | 1.5 | |
North Macedonia | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 7 | 7 | 8.3 | 10 | 16 | -10.9 | |
Malta | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.1 | 0 | 3 | -19.9 |
England have qualified. Italy need to either beat Ukraine in the final match or beat North Macedonia and then avoid losing against Ukraine.
Group D
Probabilities | Point | GD | ||||||||
Country | At least Playoff | At least Second | Group Winner | Min | 25% | Average | 75% | Max | Average | |
Turkey | 100% | 100% | 51% | 16 | 16 | 16.8 | 17 | 19 | 6 | |
Wales | 99.98% | 46% | 32% | 10 | 13 | 14.1 | 16 | 16 | 2.2 | |
Croatia | 100% | 53% | 16% | 10 | 14 | 15.4 | 16 | 16 | 11.3 | |
Armenia | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 7 | 7 | 7.9 | 8 | 13 | -5.1 | |
Latvia | 64% | < 1% | < 1% | 3 | 3 | 3.3 | 3 | 6 | -14.4 |
Turkey have qualified. Croatia need to take more points than Wales in the two last matches. Croatia play Latvia away and Armenia at home, while Wales play Armenia away and Turkey at home.
Group E
Probabilities | Point | GD | ||||||||
Country | At least Playoff | At least Second | Group Winner | Min | 25% | Average | 75% | Max | Average | |
Albania | >99.99% | 99.99% | 90% | 13 | 16 | 17.4 | 19 | 19 | 10.7 | |
Czechia | >99.99% | 95.5% | 10% | 11 | 14 | 14.8 | 15 | 17 | 6.7 | |
Poland | >99.99% | 4.0% | < 1% | 10 | 10 | 11.8 | 13 | 13 | -0.4 | |
Moldova | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 8 | 8 | 8.9 | 9 | 14 | -5.2 | |
Faroe Islands | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 3 | 3 | 3.5 | 4 | 6 | -11.7 |
Albainia can only miss if they lose against Moldova and Faroe Islands plus that Poland win against Czechia and Moldova beat Czechia. Czechia would clinch qualification with a win against Moldova but have other ways to qualify as well. Poland must beat Czechia plus that Czechia don't win against Moldova. Moldova must beat Albania and Czechia.
Group F
Probabilities | Point | GD | ||||||||
Country | At least Playoff | At least Second | Group Winner | Min | 25% | Average | 75% | Max | Average | |
Belgium | 100% | 100% | 99.27% | 16 | 20 | 21.4 | 22 | 22 | 18.7 | |
Austria | 100% | 100% | < 1% | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 19 | 9 | |
Sweden | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 6 | 10 | 11.1 | 12 | 15 | 4.4 | |
Azerbaijan | 12% | < 1% | < 1% | 4 | 4 | 4.7 | 5 | 10 | -13 | |
Estonia | 97.9% | < 1% | < 1% | 1 | 1 | 2.1 | 3 | 7 | -19.1 |
Belgium and Austria have qualified. Estonia are likely to reach the playoff
st Czechia and Moldova beat Czechia. Czechia would clinch
qualification with a win against Moldova but have other ways to qualify
as well. Poland must beat Czechia plus that Czechia don't win against
Moldova. Moldova must beat Albania and Czechia.
Group F
Probabilities | Point | GD | ||||||||
Country | At least Playoff | At least Second | Group Winner | Min | 25% | Average | 75% | Max | Average | |
Belgium | 100% | 100% | 99.27% | 16 | 20 | 21.4 | 22 | 22 | 18.7 | |
Austria | 100% | 100% | < 1% | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 19 | 9 | |
Sweden | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 6 | 10 | 11.1 | 12 | 15 | 4.4 | |
Azerbaijan | 12% | < 1% | < 1% | 4 | 4 | 4.7 | 5 | 10 | -13 | |
Estonia | 97.9% | < 1% | < 1% | 1 | 1 | 2.1 | 3 | 7 | -19.1 |
Belgium and Austria have qualified. Estonia are likely reaching the playoff; they need that two of Italy, Switzerland, Poland and Czechia finish top-2.
Group G
Probabilities | Point | GD | ||||||||
Country | At least Playoff | At least Second | Group Winner | Min | 25% | Average | 75% | Max | Average | |
Hungary | 100% | 99.01% | 95.2% | 14 | 17 | 18.5 | 20 | 20 | 10 | |
Serbia | 100% | 99.65% | 4.8% | 13 | 16 | 15.6 | 16 | 16 | 8.4 | |
Montenegro | 1.3% | 1.3% | < 1% | 8 | 11 | 10.9 | 11 | 14 | -1.9 | |
Lithuania | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 6 | 6 | 6.4 | 6 | 9 | -6 | |
Bulgaria | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 8 | -10.5 |
Hungary need a point against either Bulgaria or Montenegro. Serbia need a point against Bulgaria to secure a place in the finals. Montenegro need to beat Lithuania and Hungary plus that they need some help from Bulgaria.
Group H
Probabilities | Point | GD | ||||||||
Country | At least Playoff | At least Second | Group Winner | Min | 25% | Average | 75% | Max | Average | |
Denmark | 100% | 99.71% | 85% | 19 | 23 | 23.9 | 25 | 25 | 13.8 | |
Slovenia | 93% | 91% | 15% | 19 | 22 | 21.7 | 22 | 25 | 10.6 | |
Kazakhstan | 100% | 9% | < 1% | 15 | 18 | 18.3 | 18 | 21 | 4.9 | |
Finland | 100% | < 1% | < 1% | 12 | 16 | 17.1 | 18 | 18 | 8.4 | |
Northern Ireland | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 6 | 6 | 7.2 | 9 | 12 | -4.9 | |
San Marino | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.1 | 0 | 6 | -32.9 |
Kazakhstan need to beat San Marino and Slovenia and hope for Slovenia lose against Denmark as well. For Denmark a win against Northern Ireland or a draw against Slovenia would suffice.
Group I
Probabilities | Point | GD | ||||||||
Country | At least Playoff | At least Second | Group Winner | Min | 25% | Average | 75% | Max | Average | |
Switzerland | >99.99% | 95.8% | 82% | 15 | 21 | 21.7 | 24 | 24 | 16.6 | |
Romania | 52% | 52% | 9% | 16 | 16 | 17.7 | 19 | 22 | 7.3 | |
Israel | 100% | 53% | 9% | 11 | 16 | 17.5 | 19 | 23 | 1.8 | |
Kosovo | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 7 | 10 | 10.6 | 12 | 16 | -1.7 | |
Belarus | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 6 | 9 | 9.3 | 10 | 12 | -6 | |
Andorra | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 2 | 2 | 2.7 | 3 | 8 | -18.1 |
Israel have four matches to play due to two postponed matches and the groups is therefore more uncertain.
Group J
Probabilities | Point | GD | ||||||||
Country | At least Playoff | At least Second | Group Winner | Min | 25% | Average | 75% | Max | Average | |
Portugal | 100% | 100% | 100% | 24 | 30 | 29.7 | 30 | 30 | 37.5 | |
Slovakia | 96.5% | 96.5% | < 1% | 16 | 17 | 18.7 | 20 | 22 | 5.9 | |
Luxembourg | 100% | 3.1% | < 1% | 11 | 14 | 14.5 | 15 | 17 | -8.6 | |
Bosnia and Herzegovina | 100% | < 1% | < 1% | 9 | 12 | 12.5 | 14 | 15 | -5.9 | |
Iceland | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 10 | 10 | 11.2 | 13 | 16 | 1.6 | |
Liechtenstein | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 1 | 6 | -30.5 |
Portugal have qualified. Slovakia need one point against either Iceland or Bosnia and Herzegovina. Luxembourg need that Slovakia lose both those matches plus that Luxembourg win against Liechtenstein and Bosnia and Herzegovina.