Tuesday, October 17, 2023

Euro: Eight countries have secured a place in the Euro finals

Eight countries have qualified so far: Portugal, France, England, Belgium, Spain, Turkey, Austria, and Scotland.

Ranking

The ranking decides the seeding of the Euro Finals
The ranking is decided by group position, higher number of points, superior goal difference etc.



ProbabilitiesAverage Outcome
GroupCountryEuroPlayoff2nd1stPot 4Pot 3Pot 2Pot 1RankGrp RnkPtsGD
JPortugal100%< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%< 1%100%2.1123.728.8
BFrance100%< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%< 1%99.76%3.612318.5
CEngland100%< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%7%93%4.5121.122.2
FBelgium100%< 1%< 1%99.27%< 1%< 1%5.0%94%4.7121.418.7
ASpain100%< 1%7%93%< 1%2.8%13%84%61.120.421.5
GHungary99.31%< 1%3.9%95.2%1.2%2.9%76%19%8.21.118.510
EAlbania99.99%< 1%10%90%3.5%6%88%2.2%9.41.117.410.7
HDenmark99.85%< 1%14%85%3.0%11%84%1.8%9.51.217.98.8
ISwitzerland97.6%4.2%14%82%13%2.9%81%< 1%11.71.215.812.6
DTurkey100%< 1%49%51%2.1%46%51%< 1%131.516.86
FAustria100%< 1%99.27%< 1%< 1%55%45%< 1%13.12189
AScotland100%< 1%93%7%1.8%57%36%5%13.11.918.19.5
BNetherlands99.96%< 1%99.91%< 1%1.5%82%17%< 1%13.7217.59.9
GSerbia99.84%< 1%95%4.8%10%85%5%< 1%15.5215.68.4
HSlovenia91%1.4%77%15%14%63%15%< 1%16.61.915.74.6
ECzechia96.9%4.5%86%10%42%45%10%< 1%17.2214.86.7
DCroatia78%47%37%16%28%34%16%< 1%18.32.315.411.3
CItaly87%31%69%< 1%34%53%< 1%< 1%18.82.314.37.1
DWales64%54%14%32%25%7%32%< 1%18.82.214.12.2
JSlovakia96.5%< 1%96.5%< 1%84%12%< 1%< 1%20.2212.71.9
IIsrael63%47%44%9%51%2.9%9%< 1%21.42.412-1.3
IRomania52%< 1%42%9%41%< 1%9%< 1%21.72.411.81.4
CUkraine58%69%31%< 1%36%23%< 1%< 1%22.12.713.61.5
EPoland37%96.0%4.0%< 1%37%< 1%< 1%< 1%23.83.111.8-0.4
HKazakhstan12%91%9%< 1%5%6%< 1%< 1%24.33.412.5-1.8
BGreece51%99.91%< 1%< 1%51%< 1%< 1%< 1%24.5312.85
HFinland23%100%< 1%< 1%23%< 1%< 1%< 1%24.53.611.1-1.8
AGeorgia42%100%< 1%< 1%42%< 1%< 1%< 1%24.648.7-6.4
ANorway18%67%< 1%< 1%18%< 1%< 1%< 1%24.63111.4
JBosnia and Herzegovina18%100%< 1%< 1%18%< 1%< 1%< 1%24.63.96.5-8.9
JLuxembourg7%96.9%3.1%< 1%7%< 1%< 1%< 1%24.83.39.1-12.4
GMontenegro1.3%< 1%1.3%< 1%1.0%< 1%< 1%< 1%24.93.110.9-1.9
BIreland3.0%15%< 1%< 1%3.0%< 1%< 1%< 1%24.946.3-2.3
EMoldova< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%253.98.9-5.2
CNorth Macedonia< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%253.98.3-10.9
FEstonia< 1%97.9%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%2552.1-19.1
DArmenia< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%2547.9-5.1
JIceland< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%254.75.2-9.4
DLatvia< 1%64%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%2553.3-14.4
FAzerbaijan< 1%12%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%2544.7-13
IKosovo< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%254.36.6-4.6


Playoff teams are selected in each of League A, B and C
from the best-ranked team not yet qualified (in Top 2).
If one of those leagues have fewer than four non-qualified
teams, those spots are taken by League D group winners
(unless already qualified)

League ATop 2PlayoffAt least
Playoff
Home
Advantage
BNetherlands99.91%< 1%100%< 1%
DCroatia53%47%100%47%
ASpain100%
100%
CItaly69%31%100%31%
HDenmark99.71%< 1%100%< 1%
JPortugal100%
100%
FBelgium100%
100%
GHungary99.01%< 1%100%< 1%
ISwitzerland95.8%4.2%>99.99%3.6%

Germany



EPoland4.0%96.0%>99.99%79%
BFrance100%
100%
FAustria100%
100%
ECzechia95.5%4.5%>99.99%3.5%
CEngland100%
100%
DWales46%54%99.98%34%
League BTop 2PlayoffAt least
Playoff
Home
Advantage
IIsrael53%47%100%47%
JBosnia and Herzegovina
100%100%100%
GSerbia99.65%< 1%100%< 1%
AScotland100%
100%
HFinland
100%100%53%
CUkraine31%69%99.89%
EAlbania99.99%< 1%>99.99%
ANorway
67%67%
HSlovenia91%1.4%93%
BIreland
15%15%
JIceland< 1%
< 1%
GMontenegro1.3%
1.3%
IRomania52%
52%
FSweden



DArmenia< 1%
< 1%
League CTop 2PlayoffAt least
Playoff
Home
Advantage
AGeorgia
100%100%100%
BGreece< 1%99.91%100%99.91%
DTurkey100%
100%
HKazakhstan9%91%100%< 1%
JLuxembourg3.1%96.9%100%< 1%
FAzerbaijan
12%12%
IKosovo< 1%< 1%< 1%
GBulgaria



EFaroe Islands



CNorth Macedonia< 1%
< 1%
JSlovakia96.5%
96.5%
HNorthern Ireland



ACyprus



IBelarus



GLithuania



BGibraltar



League DTop 2PlayoffAt least
Playoff
Home
Advantage
FEstonia
97.9%97.9%
DLatvia
64%64%
EMoldova< 1%
< 1%
CMalta



IAndorra



HSan Marino



JLiechtenstein





Group A


ProbabilitiesPointGD
CountryAt least
Playoff
At least
Second
Group
Winner
Min25%Average75%MaxAverage
Spain100%100%93%152120.4212121.5
Scotland100%100%7%151618.119219.5
Norway67%< 1%< 1%10101113131.4
Georgia100%< 1%< 1%778.71013-6.4
Cyprus< 1%< 1%< 1%000.203-26


Spain and Scotland have secured a place in the finals.

Group B


ProbabilitiesPointGD
CountryAt least
Playoff
At least
Second
Group
Winner
Min25%Average75%MaxAverage
France100%100%100%182223242418.5
Netherlands100%99.91%< 1%121817.518189.9
Greece100%< 1%< 1%121212.813155
Ireland15%< 1%< 1%666.369-2.3
Gibraltar< 1%< 1%< 1%000.106-31.1

France have qualified. Greece need to take more points against France than Netherlands take against Ireland and Gibraltar.


Group C


ProbabilitiesPointGD
CountryAt least
Playoff
At least
Second
Group
Winner
Min25%Average75%MaxAverage
England100%100%100%162021.1222222.2
Italy100%69%< 1%101314.316167.1
Ukraine99.89%31%< 1%101313.614161.5
North Macedonia< 1%< 1%< 1%778.31016-10.9
Malta< 1%< 1%< 1%000.103-19.9

England have qualified. Italy need to either beat Ukraine in the final match or beat North Macedonia and then avoid losing against Ukraine.


Group D


ProbabilitiesPointGD
CountryAt least
Playoff
At least
Second
Group
Winner
Min25%Average75%MaxAverage
Turkey100%100%51%161616.817196
Wales99.98%46%32%101314.116162.2
Croatia100%53%16%101415.4161611.3
Armenia< 1%< 1%< 1%777.9813-5.1
Latvia64%< 1%< 1%333.336-14.4

Turkey have qualified. Croatia need to take more points than Wales in the two last matches. Croatia play Latvia away and Armenia at home, while Wales play Armenia away and Turkey at home.


Group E


ProbabilitiesPointGD
CountryAt least
Playoff
At least
Second
Group
Winner
Min25%Average75%MaxAverage
Albania>99.99%99.99%90%131617.4191910.7
Czechia>99.99%95.5%10%111414.815176.7
Poland>99.99%4.0%< 1%101011.81313-0.4
Moldova< 1%< 1%< 1%888.9914-5.2
Faroe Islands< 1%< 1%< 1%333.546-11.7

Albainia can only miss if they lose against Moldova and Faroe Islands plus that Poland win against Czechia and Moldova beat Czechia. Czechia would clinch qualification with a win against Moldova but have other ways to qualify as well. Poland must beat Czechia plus that Czechia don't win against Moldova. Moldova must beat Albania and Czechia.


Group F


ProbabilitiesPointGD
CountryAt least
Playoff
At least
Second
Group
Winner
Min25%Average75%MaxAverage
Belgium100%100%99.27%162021.4222218.7
Austria100%100%< 1%16171819199
Sweden< 1%< 1%< 1%61011.112154.4
Azerbaijan12%< 1%< 1%444.7510-13
Estonia97.9%< 1%< 1%112.137-19.1

Belgium and Austria have qualified. Estonia are likely to reach the playoff

st Czechia and Moldova beat Czechia. Czechia would clinch qualification with a win against Moldova but have other ways to qualify as well. Poland must beat Czechia plus that Czechia don't win against Moldova. Moldova must beat Albania and Czechia.


Group F


ProbabilitiesPointGD
CountryAt least
Playoff
At least
Second
Group
Winner
Min25%Average75%MaxAverage
Belgium100%100%99.27%162021.4222218.7
Austria100%100%< 1%16171819199
Sweden< 1%< 1%< 1%61011.112154.4
Azerbaijan12%< 1%< 1%444.7510-13
Estonia97.9%< 1%< 1%112.137-19.1

Belgium and Austria have qualified. Estonia are likely reaching the playoff; they need that two of Italy, Switzerland, Poland and Czechia finish top-2.


Group G


ProbabilitiesPointGD
CountryAt least
Playoff
At least
Second
Group
Winner
Min25%Average75%MaxAverage
Hungary100%99.01%95.2%141718.5202010
Serbia100%99.65%4.8%131615.616168.4
Montenegro1.3%1.3%< 1%81110.91114-1.9
Lithuania< 1%< 1%< 1%666.469-6
Bulgaria< 1%< 1%< 1%22338-10.5

Hungary need a point against either Bulgaria or Montenegro. Serbia need a point against Bulgaria to secure a place in the finals. Montenegro need to beat Lithuania and Hungary plus that they need some help from Bulgaria.


Group H


ProbabilitiesPointGD
CountryAt least
Playoff
At least
Second
Group
Winner
Min25%Average75%MaxAverage
Denmark100%99.71%85%192323.9252513.8
Slovenia93%91%15%192221.7222510.6
Kazakhstan100%9%< 1%151818.318214.9
Finland100%< 1%< 1%121617.118188.4
Northern Ireland< 1%< 1%< 1%667.2912-4.9
San Marino< 1%< 1%< 1%000.106-32.9

Kazakhstan need to beat San Marino and Slovenia and hope for Slovenia lose against Denmark as well. For Denmark a win against Northern Ireland or a draw against Slovenia would suffice.


Group I


ProbabilitiesPointGD
CountryAt least
Playoff
At least
Second
Group
Winner
Min25%Average75%MaxAverage
Switzerland>99.99%95.8%82%152121.7242416.6
Romania52%52%9%161617.719227.3
Israel100%53%9%111617.519231.8
Kosovo< 1%< 1%< 1%71010.61216-1.7
Belarus< 1%< 1%< 1%699.31012-6
Andorra< 1%< 1%< 1%222.738-18.1

Israel have four matches to play due to two postponed matches and the groups is therefore more uncertain.


Group J


ProbabilitiesPointGD
CountryAt least
Playoff
At least
Second
Group
Winner
Min25%Average75%MaxAverage
Portugal100%100%100%243029.7303037.5
Slovakia96.5%96.5%< 1%161718.720225.9
Luxembourg100%3.1%< 1%111414.51517-8.6
Bosnia and Herzegovina100%< 1%< 1%91212.51415-5.9
Iceland< 1%< 1%< 1%101011.213161.6
Liechtenstein< 1%< 1%< 1%000.516-30.5

Portugal have qualified. Slovakia need one point against either Iceland or Bosnia and Herzegovina. Luxembourg need that Slovakia lose both those matches plus that Luxembourg win against Liechtenstein and Bosnia and Herzegovina.



 

Monday, October 16, 2023

Euro: Big Balkan Bash when Serbia and Montenegro determine Group G

A big deciding bash in Group G as detailed below. Two very important matches in Group H deciding whether Finland, Slovenia or Kazakhstan will join Denmark to the Euro Finals. Lastly an important match in Group C when we get a rematch of the Euro 20 final between England and Italy.

- Hungary clinch Euro 24 if they win against Lithuania (84%)

- England clinch Euro 24 if they draw (or win) against Italy (65%)

- Portugal clinch pot 1 if Italy draw (or win) against England (59%)

- Austria clinch at least pot 3 if Northern Ireland draw (or win) against Slovenia and Montenegro draw (or win) against Serbia (11%)


Group G

Serbia vs Montenegro (33.4%)Home Win (82%)Draw (11%)Away Win (6%)
Montenegro< 1%12%83%
Serbia99.83%94%60%

Group H
Northern Ireland vs Slovenia (20%)Home Win (37%)Draw (24%)Away Win (39%)
Slovenia48%54%89%
Finland65%60%32%

Group H
Finland vs Kazakhstan (12.1%)Home Win (78%)Draw (14%)Away Win (9%)
Finland58%30%22%
Slovenia60%88%83%
Kazakhstan3.2%6%20%

Group C
England vs Italy (3.2%)Home Win (41%)Draw (24%)Away Win (35%)
Italy88%90%96.0%
Ukraine58%55%46%
Ireland2.9%2.4%1.0%
Poland38%39%43%


Group A

ProbabilitiesPointGD
CountryAt least
Playoff
At least
Second
Group
Winner
Min25%Average75%MaxAverage
Spain100%100%93%152120.4212121.5
Scotland100%100%7%151618.119219.5
Norway73%< 1%< 1%10101113131.4
Georgia100%< 1%< 1%778.71013-6.4
Cyprus< 1%< 1%< 1%000.203-26
Spain clinch at least pot 3 if England win against Italy and Northern Ireland draw (or win) against Slovenia (25%)

Group B

ProbabilitiesPointGD
CountryAt least
Playoff
At least
Second
Group
Winner
Min25%Average75%MaxAverage
France100%100%100%182223242418.5
Netherlands100%99.91%< 1%121817.518189.9
Greece100%< 1%< 1%121212.813155
Ireland11%< 1%< 1%666.369-2.3
Gibraltar< 1%< 1%< 1%000.106-31.1

Group C

ProbabilitiesPointGD
CountryAt least
Playoff
At least
Second
Group
Winner
Min25%Average75%MaxAverage
England>99.99%99.89%88%131919.6222220.4
Italy100%78%12%101415.617198.9
Ukraine98.4%21%< 1%71213.214161.8
North Macedonia< 1%< 1%< 1%778.31016-10.9
Malta< 1%< 1%< 1%000.306-20.3
England clinch Euro 24 if they draw (or win) against Italy (65%)

Group D

ProbabilitiesPointGD
CountryAt least
Playoff
At least
Second
Group
Winner
Min25%Average75%MaxAverage
Turkey100%100%52%161616.817196
Wales99.98%46%32%101314.116162.1
Croatia100%53%16%101415.4161611.3
Armenia< 1%< 1%< 1%777.9813-5
Latvia73%< 1%< 1%333.336-14.4

Group E

ProbabilitiesPointGD
CountryAt least
Playoff
At least
Second
Group
Winner
Min25%Average75%MaxAverage
Albania>99.99%99.99%90%131617.4191910.7
Czechia>99.99%95.5%10%111414.815176.7
Poland>99.99%3.9%< 1%101011.81313-0.4
Moldova< 1%< 1%< 1%888.9914-5.2
Faroe Islands< 1%< 1%< 1%333.546-11.7

Group F

ProbabilitiesPointGD
CountryAt least
Playoff
At least
Second
Group
Winner
Min25%Average75%MaxAverage
Belgium100%100%99.28%162021.4222218.7
Austria100%100%< 1%16171819199
Sweden< 1%< 1%< 1%61011.112154.4
Azerbaijan5.0%< 1%< 1%444.7510-13
Estonia98.4%< 1%< 1%112.137-19.1
Austria clinch at least pot 3 if Northern Ireland draw (or win) against Slovenia and Montenegro draw (or win) against Serbia (11%)

Group G

ProbabilitiesPointGD
CountryAt least
Playoff
At least
Second
Group
Winner
Min25%Average75%MaxAverage
Hungary100%99.81%99.00%131920.2222212.4
Serbia100%93%< 1%101415.216168.7
Montenegro7%7%< 1%81111.21217-2.2
Lithuania< 1%< 1%< 1%555.6611-8.4
Bulgaria< 1%< 1%< 1%22338-10.5
Hungary clinch Euro 24 if they win against Lithuania (84%)

Group H

ProbabilitiesPointGD
CountryAt least
Playoff
At least
Second
Group
Winner
Min25%Average75%MaxAverage
Denmark100%98.6%91%162323.9252518.5
Slovenia84%63%8%161920.222259.7
Finland100%37%< 1%121819.5212111.3
Kazakhstan100%1.9%< 1%121515.716212
Northern Ireland< 1%< 1%< 1%678.51015-3.9
San Marino< 1%< 1%< 1%000.207-37.6

Group I

ProbabilitiesPointGD
CountryAt least
Playoff
At least
Second
Group
Winner
Min25%Average75%MaxAverage
Switzerland100%95.7%82%152121.7242416.6
Romania52%52%9%161617.719227.3
Israel100%53%9%111617.519231.8
Kosovo< 1%< 1%< 1%71010.61216-1.6
Belarus< 1%< 1%< 1%699.31012-6
Andorra< 1%< 1%< 1%222.738-18.1

Group J

ProbabilitiesPointGD
CountryAt least
Playoff
At least
Second
Group
Winner
Min25%Average75%MaxAverage
Portugal100%100%100%243029.7303037.5
Slovakia96.5%96.5%< 1%161718.720225.9
Luxembourg100%3.1%< 1%111414.51517-8.6
Bosnia and Herzegovina100%< 1%< 1%91212.51515-5.9
Iceland< 1%< 1%< 1%101011.213161.6
Liechtenstein< 1%< 1%< 1%000.516-30.5
Portugal clinch pot 1 if Italy draw (or win) against England (59%)

Playoff teams are selected in each of League A, B and C
from the best-ranked team not yet qualified (in Top 2).
If one of those leagues have fewer than four non-qualified
teams, those spots are taken by League D group winners
(unless already qualified)

League ATop 2PlayoffAt least
Playoff
Home
Advantage
BNetherlands99.91%< 1%100%< 1%
DCroatia53%47%100%47%
ASpain100%
100%
CItaly78%22%100%22%
HDenmark98.6%1.4%100%1.2%
JPortugal100%
100%
FBelgium100%
100%
GHungary99.81%< 1%100%< 1%
ISwitzerland95.7%4.3%100%3.8%

Germany



EPoland3.9%96.1%>99.99%84%
BFrance100%
100%
FAustria100%
100%
ECzechia95.5%4.5%>99.99%3.6%
CEngland99.89%< 1%>99.99%< 1%
DWales46%54%99.98%39%
League BTop 2PlayoffAt least
Playoff
Home
Advantage
IIsrael53%47%100%47%
JBosnia and Herzegovina
100%100%100%
GSerbia93%7%100%3.6%
AScotland100%
100%
HFinland37%63%100%31%
CUkraine21%77%98.4%14%
EAlbania99.99%< 1%>99.99%< 1%
ANorway
73%73%3.9%
HSlovenia63%21%84%
BIreland
11%11%
JIceland< 1%< 1%< 1%
GMontenegro7%< 1%7%
IRomania52%
52%
FSweden



DArmenia< 1%
< 1%
League CTop 2PlayoffAt least
Playoff
Home
Advantage
AGeorgia
100%100%100%
BGreece< 1%99.91%100%99.91%
DTurkey100%
100%
HKazakhstan1.9%98.1%100%< 1%
JLuxembourg3.1%96.9%100%< 1%
FAzerbaijan
5.0%5.0%
IKosovo< 1%< 1%< 1%
GBulgaria



EFaroe Islands



CNorth Macedonia< 1%
< 1%
JSlovakia96.5%
96.5%
HNorthern Ireland



ACyprus



IBelarus



GLithuania< 1%
< 1%
BGibraltar



League DTop 2PlayoffAt least
Playoff
Home
Advantage
FEstonia
98.4%98.4%
DLatvia
73%73%
EMoldova< 1%
< 1%
CMalta



IAndorra



HSan Marino



JLiechtenstein