Euro: Big Balkan Bash when Serbia and Montenegro determine Group G

A big deciding bash in Group G as detailed below. Two very important matches in Group H deciding whether Finland, Slovenia or Kazakhstan will join Denmark to the Euro Finals. Lastly an important match in Group C when we get a rematch of the Euro 20 final between England and Italy.

- Hungary clinch Euro 24 if they win against Lithuania (84%)

- England clinch Euro 24 if they draw (or win) against Italy (65%)

- Portugal clinch pot 1 if Italy draw (or win) against England (59%)

- Austria clinch at least pot 3 if Northern Ireland draw (or win) against Slovenia and Montenegro draw (or win) against Serbia (11%)

Group G

Serbia vs Montenegro (33.4%)	Home Win (82%)	Draw (11%)	Away Win (6%)
Montenegro	< 1%	12%	83%
Serbia	99.83%	94%	60%

Group H

Northern Ireland vs Slovenia (20%)	Home Win (37%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (39%)
Slovenia	48%	54%	89%
Finland	65%	60%	32%

Group H

Finland vs Kazakhstan (12.1%)	Home Win (78%)	Draw (14%)	Away Win (9%)
Finland	58%	30%	22%
Slovenia	60%	88%	83%
Kazakhstan	3.2%	6%	20%

Group C

England vs Italy (3.2%)	Home Win (41%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (35%)
Italy	88%	90%	96.0%
Ukraine	58%	55%	46%
Ireland	2.9%	2.4%	1.0%
Poland	38%	39%	43%

Group A

	Probabilities			Point					GD
Country	At least Playoff	At least Second	Group Winner	Min	25%	Average	75%	Max	Average
Spain	100%	100%	93%	15	21	20.4	21	21	21.5
Scotland	100%	100%	7%	15	16	18.1	19	21	9.5
Norway	73%	< 1%	< 1%	10	10	11	13	13	1.4
Georgia	100%	< 1%	< 1%	7	7	8.7	10	13	-6.4
Cyprus	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	0	0	0.2	0	3	-26

Spain clinch at least pot 3 if England win against Italy and Northern Ireland draw (or win) against Slovenia (25%)

Group B

	Probabilities			Point					GD
Country	At least Playoff	At least Second	Group Winner	Min	25%	Average	75%	Max	Average
France	100%	100%	100%	18	22	23	24	24	18.5
Netherlands	100%	99.91%	< 1%	12	18	17.5	18	18	9.9
Greece	100%	< 1%	< 1%	12	12	12.8	13	15	5
Ireland	11%	< 1%	< 1%	6	6	6.3	6	9	-2.3
Gibraltar	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	0	0	0.1	0	6	-31.1

Group C

	Probabilities			Point					GD
Country	At least Playoff	At least Second	Group Winner	Min	25%	Average	75%	Max	Average
England	>99.99%	99.89%	88%	13	19	19.6	22	22	20.4
Italy	100%	78%	12%	10	14	15.6	17	19	8.9
Ukraine	98.4%	21%	< 1%	7	12	13.2	14	16	1.8
North Macedonia	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	7	7	8.3	10	16	-10.9
Malta	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	0	0	0.3	0	6	-20.3

England clinch Euro 24 if they draw (or win) against Italy (65%)

Group D

	Probabilities			Point					GD
Country	At least Playoff	At least Second	Group Winner	Min	25%	Average	75%	Max	Average
Turkey	100%	100%	52%	16	16	16.8	17	19	6
Wales	99.98%	46%	32%	10	13	14.1	16	16	2.1
Croatia	100%	53%	16%	10	14	15.4	16	16	11.3
Armenia	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	7	7	7.9	8	13	-5
Latvia	73%	< 1%	< 1%	3	3	3.3	3	6	-14.4

Group E

	Probabilities			Point					GD
Country	At least Playoff	At least Second	Group Winner	Min	25%	Average	75%	Max	Average
Albania	>99.99%	99.99%	90%	13	16	17.4	19	19	10.7
Czechia	>99.99%	95.5%	10%	11	14	14.8	15	17	6.7
Poland	>99.99%	3.9%	< 1%	10	10	11.8	13	13	-0.4
Moldova	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	8	8	8.9	9	14	-5.2
Faroe Islands	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	3	3	3.5	4	6	-11.7

Group F

	Probabilities			Point					GD
Country	At least Playoff	At least Second	Group Winner	Min	25%	Average	75%	Max	Average
Belgium	100%	100%	99.28%	16	20	21.4	22	22	18.7
Austria	100%	100%	< 1%	16	17	18	19	19	9
Sweden	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	6	10	11.1	12	15	4.4
Azerbaijan	5.0%	< 1%	< 1%	4	4	4.7	5	10	-13
Estonia	98.4%	< 1%	< 1%	1	1	2.1	3	7	-19.1

Austria clinch at least pot 3 if Northern Ireland draw (or win) against Slovenia and Montenegro draw (or win) against Serbia (11%)

Group G

	Probabilities			Point					GD
Country	At least Playoff	At least Second	Group Winner	Min	25%	Average	75%	Max	Average
Hungary	100%	99.81%	99.00%	13	19	20.2	22	22	12.4
Serbia	100%	93%	< 1%	10	14	15.2	16	16	8.7
Montenegro	7%	7%	< 1%	8	11	11.2	12	17	-2.2
Lithuania	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	5	5	5.6	6	11	-8.4
Bulgaria	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2	2	3	3	8	-10.5

Hungary clinch Euro 24 if they win against Lithuania (84%)

Group H

	Probabilities			Point					GD
Country	At least Playoff	At least Second	Group Winner	Min	25%	Average	75%	Max	Average
Denmark	100%	98.6%	91%	16	23	23.9	25	25	18.5
Slovenia	84%	63%	8%	16	19	20.2	22	25	9.7
Finland	100%	37%	< 1%	12	18	19.5	21	21	11.3
Kazakhstan	100%	1.9%	< 1%	12	15	15.7	16	21	2
Northern Ireland	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	6	7	8.5	10	15	-3.9
San Marino	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	0	0	0.2	0	7	-37.6

Group I

	Probabilities			Point					GD
Country	At least Playoff	At least Second	Group Winner	Min	25%	Average	75%	Max	Average
Switzerland	100%	95.7%	82%	15	21	21.7	24	24	16.6
Romania	52%	52%	9%	16	16	17.7	19	22	7.3
Israel	100%	53%	9%	11	16	17.5	19	23	1.8
Kosovo	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	7	10	10.6	12	16	-1.6
Belarus	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	6	9	9.3	10	12	-6
Andorra	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2	2	2.7	3	8	-18.1

Group J

	Probabilities			Point					GD
Country	At least Playoff	At least Second	Group Winner	Min	25%	Average	75%	Max	Average
Portugal	100%	100%	100%	24	30	29.7	30	30	37.5
Slovakia	96.5%	96.5%	< 1%	16	17	18.7	20	22	5.9
Luxembourg	100%	3.1%	< 1%	11	14	14.5	15	17	-8.6
Bosnia and Herzegovina	100%	< 1%	< 1%	9	12	12.5	15	15	-5.9
Iceland	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	10	10	11.2	13	16	1.6
Liechtenstein	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	0	0	0.5	1	6	-30.5

Portugal clinch pot 1 if Italy draw (or win) against England (59%)

Playoff teams are selected in each of League A, B and C
from the best-ranked team not yet qualified (in Top 2).
If one of those leagues have fewer than four non-qualified
teams, those spots are taken by League D group winners
(unless already qualified)

League A		Top 2	Playoff	At least Playoff	Home Advantage
B	Netherlands	99.91%	< 1%	100%	< 1%
D	Croatia	53%	47%	100%	47%
A	Spain	100%		100%
C	Italy	78%	22%	100%	22%
H	Denmark	98.6%	1.4%	100%	1.2%
J	Portugal	100%		100%
F	Belgium	100%		100%
G	Hungary	99.81%	< 1%	100%	< 1%
I	Switzerland	95.7%	4.3%	100%	3.8%
	Germany
E	Poland	3.9%	96.1%	>99.99%	84%
B	France	100%		100%
F	Austria	100%		100%
E	Czechia	95.5%	4.5%	>99.99%	3.6%
C	England	99.89%	< 1%	>99.99%	< 1%
D	Wales	46%	54%	99.98%	39%
League B		Top 2	Playoff	At least Playoff	Home Advantage
I	Israel	53%	47%	100%	47%
J	Bosnia and Herzegovina		100%	100%	100%
G	Serbia	93%	7%	100%	3.6%
A	Scotland	100%		100%
H	Finland	37%	63%	100%	31%
C	Ukraine	21%	77%	98.4%	14%
E	Albania	99.99%	< 1%	>99.99%	< 1%
A	Norway		73%	73%	3.9%
H	Slovenia	63%	21%	84%
B	Ireland		11%	11%
J	Iceland	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
G	Montenegro	7%	< 1%	7%
I	Romania	52%		52%
F	Sweden
D	Armenia	< 1%		< 1%
League C		Top 2	Playoff	At least Playoff	Home Advantage
A	Georgia		100%	100%	100%
B	Greece	< 1%	99.91%	100%	99.91%
D	Turkey	100%		100%
H	Kazakhstan	1.9%	98.1%	100%	< 1%
J	Luxembourg	3.1%	96.9%	100%	< 1%
F	Azerbaijan		5.0%	5.0%
I	Kosovo	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
G	Bulgaria
E	Faroe Islands
C	North Macedonia	< 1%		< 1%
J	Slovakia	96.5%		96.5%
H	Northern Ireland
A	Cyprus
I	Belarus
G	Lithuania	< 1%		< 1%
B	Gibraltar
League D		Top 2	Playoff	At least Playoff	Home Advantage
F	Estonia		98.4%	98.4%
D	Latvia		73%	73%
E	Moldova	< 1%		< 1%
C	Malta
I	Andorra
H	San Marino
J	Liechtenstein