Euro: Big decider between Luxembourg and Slovakia

 

Group J

Luxembourg vs Slovakia (72.1%)	Home Win (34%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (42%)
Slovakia	17%	63%	95%
Luxembourg	78%	29%	8%

Group B

Greece vs Netherlands (16.2%)	Home Win (16%)	Draw (19%)	Away Win (64%)
Netherlands	79%	97.9%	99.96%
Greece	78%	53%	51%
Kosovo	3.3%	< 1%	< 1%
Poland	27%	38%	40%

Group F

Belgium vs Sweden (3.1%)	Home Win (78%)	Draw (14%)	Away Win (8%)
Sweden	< 1%	< 1%	5%
Austria	100%	100%	95.6%

Group A

	Probabilities			Point					GD
Country	At least Playoff	At least Second	Group Winner	Min	25%	Average	75%	Max	Average
Spain	100%	100%	93%	15	21	20.4	21	21	21.5
Scotland	100%	100%	7%	15	16	18.1	19	21	9.5
Norway	75%	< 1%	< 1%	10	10	11	13	13	1.4
Georgia	100%	< 1%	< 1%	7	7	8.7	10	13	-6.4
Cyprus	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	0	0	0.2	0	3	-26

Group B

	Probabilities			Point					GD
Country	At least Playoff	At least Second	Group Winner	Min	25%	Average	75%	Max	Average
France	100%	100%	>99.99%	18	22	23	24	24	18.5
Netherlands	100%	90%	< 1%	9	16	16.7	18	18	10.1
Greece	100%	10%	< 1%	12	12	13.5	15	18	4.8
Ireland	14%	< 1%	< 1%	3	6	6	6	9	-3.6
Gibraltar	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	0	0	0.3	0	9	-29.8

France clinch group win if Netherlands draw (or win) against Greece (84%)

Group C

	Probabilities			Point					GD
Country	At least Playoff	At least Second	Group Winner	Min	25%	Average	75%	Max	Average
England	>99.99%	99.89%	88%	13	19	19.6	22	22	20.4
Italy	100%	78%	12%	10	14	15.6	17	19	8.9
Ukraine	98.5%	21%	< 1%	7	12	13.2	14	16	1.8
North Macedonia	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	7	7	8.3	10	16	-10.9
Malta	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	0	0	0.3	0	6	-20.3

Group D

	Probabilities			Point					GD
Country	At least Playoff	At least Second	Group Winner	Min	25%	Average	75%	Max	Average
Turkey	100%	100%	52%	16	16	16.8	17	19	6
Wales	99.88%	46%	32%	10	13	14.1	16	16	2.1
Croatia	100%	53%	16%	10	14	15.4	16	16	11.3
Armenia	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	7	7	7.9	8	13	-5
Latvia	65%	< 1%	< 1%	3	3	3.3	3	6	-14.4

Group E

	Probabilities			Point					GD
Country	At least Playoff	At least Second	Group Winner	Min	25%	Average	75%	Max	Average
Albania	>99.99%	99.99%	90%	13	16	17.4	19	19	10.7
Czechia	99.99%	95.5%	10%	11	14	14.8	15	17	6.7
Poland	99.93%	4.0%	< 1%	10	10	11.8	13	13	-0.4
Moldova	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	8	8	8.9	9	14	-5.2
Faroe Islands	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	3	3	3.5	4	6	-11.7

Group F

	Probabilities			Point					GD
Country	At least Playoff	At least Second	Group Winner	Min	25%	Average	75%	Max	Average
Belgium	100%	100%	99.51%	16	20	21.4	22	22	18.7
Austria	>99.99%	99.57%	< 1%	13	16	17.2	19	19	9.2
Sweden	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	6	10	11.1	12	15	4.4
Azerbaijan	41%	< 1%	< 1%	4	4	5.4	7	13	-13.2
Estonia	95.8%	< 1%	< 1%	1	1	2.1	3	7	-19.1

Belgium clinch group win if they win against Sweden (78%)
Austria clinch Euro 24 if Belgium draw (or win) against Sweden (92%)

Group G

	Probabilities			Point					GD
Country	At least Playoff	At least Second	Group Winner	Min	25%	Average	75%	Max	Average
Hungary	>99.99%	99.81%	99.01%	13	19	20.2	22	22	12.4
Serbia	100%	93%	< 1%	10	14	15.2	16	16	8.7
Montenegro	7%	7%	< 1%	8	11	11.2	12	17	-2.2
Lithuania	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	5	5	5.6	6	11	-8.4
Bulgaria	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2	2	3	3	8	-10.5

Group H

	Probabilities			Point					GD
Country	At least Playoff	At least Second	Group Winner	Min	25%	Average	75%	Max	Average
Denmark	100%	98.6%	91%	16	23	23.9	25	25	18.5
Slovenia	85%	63%	8%	16	19	20.2	22	25	9.7
Finland	100%	37%	< 1%	12	18	19.5	21	21	11.3
Kazakhstan	100%	1.9%	< 1%	12	15	15.7	16	21	2
Northern Ireland	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	6	7	8.5	10	15	-3.9
San Marino	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	0	0	0.2	0	7	-37.5

Group I

	Probabilities			Point					GD
Country	At least Playoff	At least Second	Group Winner	Min	25%	Average	75%	Max	Average
Switzerland	>99.99%	95.7%	82%	15	21	21.7	24	24	16.6
Romania	52%	52%	9%	16	16	17.7	19	22	7.3
Israel	100%	53%	9%	11	16	17.5	19	23	1.8
Kosovo	4.0%	< 1%	< 1%	7	10	10.6	12	16	-1.7
Belarus	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	6	9	9.3	10	12	-6
Andorra	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2	2	2.7	3	8	-18.1

Group J

	Probabilities			Point					GD
Country	At least Playoff	At least Second	Group Winner	Min	25%	Average	75%	Max	Average
Portugal	100%	100%	100%	21	28	28.9	30	30	34
Slovakia	61%	61%	< 1%	13	16	17.2	19	22	5.1
Luxembourg	100%	33%	< 1%	11	14	15.8	17	20	-7.8
Bosnia and Herzegovina	100%	6%	< 1%	9	12	13	15	18	-2.4
Iceland	1.0%	< 1%	< 1%	7	10	11	13	16	1.1
Liechtenstein	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	0	0	0.6	1	9	-29.9

Portugal clinch pot 1 if they win against Bosnia and Herzegovina and Sweden draw (or win) against Belgium (15%)

 

 Playoff teams are selected in each of League A, B and C
from the best-ranked team not yet qualified (in Top 2).
If one of those leagues have fewer than four non-qualified
teams, those spots are taken by League D group winners
(unless already qualified)

League A		Top 2	Playoff	At least Playoff	Home Advantage
B	Netherlands	90%	10%	100%	10%
D	Croatia	53%	47%	100%	47%
A	Spain	100%		100%
C	Italy	78%	22%	100%	21%
H	Denmark	98.6%	1.4%	100%	1.2%
J	Portugal	100%		100%
F	Belgium	100%		100%
G	Hungary	99.81%	< 1%	>99.99%	< 1%
I	Switzerland	95.7%	4.3%	>99.99%	3.6%
	Germany
E	Poland	4.0%	96.0%	99.93%	79%
B	France	100%		100%
F	Austria	99.57%	< 1%	>99.99%	< 1%
E	Czechia	95.5%	4.5%	99.99%	3.4%
C	England	99.89%	< 1%	>99.99%	< 1%
D	Wales	46%	53%	99.88%	35%
League B		Top 2	Playoff	At least Playoff	Home Advantage
I	Israel	53%	47%	100%	47%
J	Bosnia and Herzegovina	6%	94%	100%	94%
G	Serbia	93%	7%	100%	3.8%
A	Scotland	100%		100%
H	Finland	37%	63%	100%	33%
C	Ukraine	21%	77%	98.5%	16%
E	Albania	99.99%	< 1%	>99.99%	< 1%
A	Norway		75%	75%	5%
H	Slovenia	63%	22%	85%	< 1%
B	Ireland		14%	14%	< 1%
J	Iceland	< 1%	< 1%	1.0%
G	Montenegro	7%	< 1%	7%
I	Romania	52%	< 1%	52%
F	Sweden	< 1%		< 1%
D	Armenia	< 1%		< 1%
League C		Top 2	Playoff	At least Playoff	Home Advantage
A	Georgia		100%	100%	100%
B	Greece	10%	90%	100%	90%
D	Turkey	100%		100%
H	Kazakhstan	1.9%	98.1%	100%	10%
J	Luxembourg	33%	67%	100%	< 1%
F	Azerbaijan	< 1%	41%	41%	< 1%
I	Kosovo	< 1%	4.0%	4.0%
G	Bulgaria		< 1%	< 1%
E	Faroe Islands
C	North Macedonia	< 1%		< 1%
J	Slovakia	61%		61%
H	Northern Ireland
A	Cyprus
I	Belarus
G	Lithuania	< 1%		< 1%
B	Gibraltar
League D		Top 2	Playoff	At least Playoff	Home Advantage
F	Estonia		95.8%	95.8%
D	Latvia		65%	65%
E	Moldova	< 1%		< 1%
C	Malta
I	Andorra
H	San Marino
J	Liechtenstein